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Gotta Give the TBD/IPP Poll Some Notice

For a while, I've been paying particular attention to the Gallup poll, as they got it almost nearly right in 2006.

But of course they've been wrong before -- and other people have been right before.

As many commenters have told me, TIPP got the 2004 election exactly right.

So though I've been ignoring them, I should note that they have The One only up by The Three Point Seven.

Posted by: Ace at 05:54 PM



Comments

1 Woah.  Most bizarre poll result in there: 

18-24 year-olds prefer McCain 53-43. 

Gotta hand it to the evangelicals...they have way more kids than the inner-city liberals.

Posted by: james at October 22, 2008 05:58 PM (Zer+C)

2

within the margin of error.

These polls are great that have us close. They still mean nothing. I will not cherr pick. The poll that matter is the one with voting booths. That is why i am a volunteer. I talk to the voters in the real world. If you get on the ground and speak to americans. You will get a real feel just how well McCain/Palin are doing.

Stay strong do not give up. Stand up and fight.

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 06:00 PM (zzms8)

3 The only Northern liberal Democratic presidential candidates since 1964 have been Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry.

Comparing how they did in Gallup polling in July versus the eventual electoral result:

- Mondale and McGovern suffered swings toward the Republicans of 2% and 4% respectively, which in their cases didnt matter much because they started and stayed a devastating 20% or so behind

- In the closer elections Humphrey (196 suffered a July-November swing over the Republicans of 6%, Dukakis (198 16%, Kerry (2004) 9.5%.

In each case in the fall the Northern liberals support fell off sharply, when the public found out more about them and the policies they supported.

As a Northern liberal (and hes a very orthodox, rather left of center one at that) this 40-year history suggests that Obama would need to have a solid 10% lead in the polls now just to have an even chance in November, quite apart from any racial considerations (which if they materialize on polling day may well cut both ways).

Posted by: trainer at October 22, 2008 06:00 PM (YMx0M)

4

did you hear palins interview with Dr.dobson??

It was really good.

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 06:04 PM (zzms8)

5

"18-24 year-olds prefer McCain 53-43."

Makes sense when you think about it for a second or two. The college kids at the big state school or elite college making the most noise are the Obama followers, but all those going to the community college, the directional school (North, South, Central State U.) or hitting the workforce out of high school are much more diverse in their political leaning.

And trust me, the kids who are used to getting up early on a Sunday every week to go to church and fulfill their religious obligations have no problem getting up an hour early on only one Tuesday out of the year to fulfill their civic obligation.

Posted by: Lee at October 22, 2008 06:09 PM (TxTIh)

6

Just think how well our side would be doing if we actually had a candidate who wanted to win...

Posted by: Dogstar at October 22, 2008 06:11 PM (PQZBi)

7

dogstar are you an Axelturfer?

McCain IS the one fighting. Your on a blog whining.Pussy.

Palin is fighting. Real Americans are fighting to win.

You are whining. selfish,sniveling, brat.

The only way we lose is if poeple act like you.

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 06:14 PM (zzms8)

8 trainer: It's not July. The election is in less than two weeks. Between ten and twenty percent of voters already have cast their ballots.

It's true that Bush did better than his late-October polls in 2004. Gore did better in 2000. Both by smallish margins, but still. This may reflect the fact that Gore had a stronger ground game in 2000, and Bush a better one in 2004. How do you suppose the ground games compare this time around?

Time to focus on congressional races, folks. Know when to fold 'em.

Posted by: bullmoose at October 22, 2008 06:16 PM (AKebb)

9 Anyone notice that CNN/Time released their weekly state polls and guess which state is missing from that list that hasn't had Obama ahead in over a week?

Thats right Florida.  Not released this week for some reason.  Bet ya that poll would have flipped the average over to McCain.

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 06:18 PM (HAdov)

10 bulmoose folded. What a pussy. A cocksucking pussy.

Posted by: nikkolai at October 22, 2008 06:20 PM (3KW6/)

11 Ah, the Axelturfers are out tonight, trying to mitigate the damage by these polls showing a closer than expected race.

As Geherty's Obi-won said, if one of these polls comes out showing McCain pulling ahead, the Obama fantasy bubble with pop. 

Posted by: DelD at October 22, 2008 06:22 PM (hs9gk)

12 Er, "The Obama fantasy bubble WILL pop."

Damn, malbec.

Posted by: DelD at October 22, 2008 06:23 PM (hs9gk)

13

did you hear palins interview with Dr.dobson??

It was really good.

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 06:04 PM (zzms

Gawd, give us a link, already.

Posted by: Editor at October 22, 2008 06:23 PM (GTpOW)

14 11 Ah, the Axelturfers are out tonight, trying to mitigate the damage by these polls showing a closer than expected race.

It's true - they're everywhere right now.  It's all falling apart for them. 

Posted by: Editor at October 22, 2008 06:24 PM (GTpOW)

15

bullmoose, why? Mac is polling better than the congressional races.

If obama wins NO ONE will check the congress.

McCain/Palin will.

Stop being played by the MSM. Are you that gullible? Are you really goin to get demoralized by the angry leftist's running the MSM?

Come on. I thought republicans were tough and knew how to win.

You do not seem to know how to win.
You have to work to get the result you want.

McCain/Palin know how to win. That is why as a volunteer in central PA. The gun-totin, bible thumping, bigots we are pumped and ready to win the state. It is up to YOU as a voter just as much or more than McCain or any other candidate.

We WILL WIN. With or without you. Just like Mac won the primary. Probably without you. With you opposing him. He proved you wrong then. He will again prove you wrong. We will prove you wrong.

Unless you would like to join us in HELPING win the election. Like voters do at every election. Go volunteer. Do you? How are you focusing your effort on any race? By typing? Or action? By complaining? or canvassing and calling?

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 06:24 PM (zzms8)

16 "bullmoose, why?"

Because moosecrap is an axelturfer.

Posted by: someone at October 22, 2008 06:26 PM (zHoxL)

17

hot air has a link to the dobson interview. I always mess it up trying to post a link.

It was a great interview. ANd Dobson said the polls are useless. Turnout matters. As a christian you must vote and it will be us who makes it happen for the greater good.

Palin was awesome. It was a down to earth interview. She spoke of her faith strongly and passionatly.

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 06:29 PM (zzms8)

18 Look, call me whatever you'd like. There's a chance--a small one, but a chance--that Harry Reid could have a 60-vote majority in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi a 100-seat majority in the House. Small donations and volunteer efforts can make a big difference for congressional races, whereas gotv in a 7-point race is a waste of time. Look at it this way: if the race were winnable, we'd have 537's blasting Rev. Wright all over the airwaves. The smart money is out.

Posted by: bullmoose at October 22, 2008 06:33 PM (AKebb)

19

BM, first they are 527's.

Also, congressional races alot of them are down by 7. Also, a national poll in an election that is about state by state is a pretty lame excuse. Why don't you go tell everybody about wright? we can win without him. Mccain is going to prove that an honorable race can be run and victory can be achieved.

McCain/Palin know how to win. That is why as a volunteer in central PA. The gun-totin, bible thumping, bigots we are pumped and ready to win the state. It is up to YOU as a voter just as much or more than McCain or any other candidate.

We WILL WIN. With or without you. Just like Mac won the primary. Probably without you. With you opposing him. He proved you wrong then. He will again prove you wrong. We will prove you wrong.

Unless you would like to join us in HELPING win the election. Like voters do at every election. Go volunteer. Do you? How are you focusing your effort on any race? By typing? Or action? By complaining? or canvassing and calling?

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 06:42 PM (zzms8)

20 Reasons to question the media narrative that it will be a dem blow out of Reagan proportions:

1. The largest voting block in the country is the Christian Right. If the Christian right shows up that is the end of things; the Democrats can't win. The Christian right stayed home in 2006, they were tepid in their support in 04 and 00. Tell me with a straight face that the Christian Right will be sitting this election out. The combination of Palin and Obama's far left politics is calling them to vote.

2. Obama has serious problems in his own party. The KKK wing of the Democratic party is sitting this one out. The feminist wing of the party resents him bitterly. The treatment of Joe the Plumber has played poorly among working people and Union members. Jewish support is down; Farrakhan and Wright don't play well there. Young people aren't as enthralled with him as they were in the beginning. Obama's socialism plays very poorly with immigrants. Those are all problems Kerry didn't have - explain how Obama does better than Kerry among Democrats.

3. The polls have way to much variance in them. If the polls were accurate they would be very close to each other . They aren't close, which means they aren't accurate.

If I remember correctly the polls had both Nixon - McGovern and Reagan - Carter close just before the election; I think we all remember how those elections turned out.

Posted by: Veteran330 at October 22, 2008 06:42 PM (ylhEn)

21 Reasons to question the media narrative that it will be a democratic blow out of Reagan proportions:

1. The largest voting block in the country is the Christian Right. If the Christian right shows up that is the end of things; the Democrats can't win. The Christian right stayed home in 2006, they were tepid in their support in '04 and '00. Tell me with a straight face that the Christian Right will be sitting this election out. The combination of Palin and Obama's far left politics is calling them to vote.

2. Obama has serious problems in his own party. The KKK wing of the Democratic party is sitting this one out. The feminist wing of the party resents him bitterly. The treatment of Joe the Plumber has played poorly among working people and Union members. Jewish support is down; Farrakhan and Wright don't play well there. Young people aren't as enthralled with him as they were in the beginning. Obama's socialism plays very poorly with immigrants. His abortion stand plays poorly among Catholics. Those are all problems Kerry didn't have - explain how Obama does better than Kerry among Democrats.

3. The polls have way to much variance in them. If the polls were accurate they would be very close to each other . They aren't close, which means they aren't accurate.

If I remember correctly the polls had both Nixon - McGovern and Reagan - Carter close just before the election; I think we all remember how those elections turned out.

Posted by: Veteran330 at October 22, 2008 07:28 PM (ylhEn)

22 Sorry for the double post. Got an error on the first one.

Posted by: Veteran330 at October 22, 2008 07:29 PM (ylhEn)

23 3. The polls have way to much variance in them. If the polls were accurate they would be very close to each other . They aren't close, which means they aren't accurate.

Many polls are touting massive swings from one polling period to the next. 5-10 points in a matter of a few days, with no bombshell events to drive them.  That alone is enough to wonder if these figures are really meaningful this time around.

And poll averages?  They're only as good as the outliers they include. And, if they include some of the ridiculous 14-point outliers...

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at October 22, 2008 07:30 PM (MMC8r)

24 "TIPP got the 2004 election exactly right."

Well, technically, their final pre-election poll was the one that's said to be exactly right.We haven't seen their final pre-election poll yet. Maybe some of their other pre-election polls (say, their one for October 22nd, 2004) were also accurate of reflecting an "if the election was today" situation at those given points in time, or maybe they weren't. There's still trending left to go.

Posted by: Tresjin at October 22, 2008 07:52 PM (MCuJQ)

25 "We haven't seen their final pre-election poll yet."

Or anyone's.  You may see a lot of stupid bias disappear in the last poll each org releases, but it will still have been present throughout as attempts to destroy morale.

Posted by: someone at October 22, 2008 07:56 PM (zHoxL)

26

ppp, don't be a dick.  I've been commenting here and contributing to Ace long, long, LONG before you ever knew about this place.  I've even posted here on Open Post.

And I am 100% correct.  McCain has consistently refused to go for the jugular by linking Obama to the Fannie/Freddie meltdown.

Mellow out, dude.  If McCain was campaigning right he would be ahead by five instead of down by five.

I still want him to win, but he should be coasting right now, and comfortable enough to make appearances (along w/Sarah) on behalf of the dozens of Congressional Repubs who need help.

Posted by: Dogstar at October 22, 2008 08:09 PM (PQZBi)

27

That's IBD/TIPP, as in Investors Business Daily.

The To Be Determined/TIPP poll has a much larger margin of error.

Posted by: Sarah at October 22, 2008 08:26 PM (mrk0R)

28

McCain's starting to pick up the Jewish vote:

Day 1 of tracking:  74% (Obama)  6% (McCain)

Day 10 of tracking:  59% (Obama) 23% (McCain)

 

Posted by: Deaconjones at October 22, 2008 08:53 PM (8JM/r)

29 Come on , we need Dr dw to tell us that Obama is up by 10 in Texas, or something.


Posted by: Dr. Remulak at October 22, 2008 11:25 PM (TDs7F)

30 Bullmoose is still a cocksucking pussy. Get in the fight or get the hell away from here.

Posted by: nikkolai at October 22, 2008 11:44 PM (G8d+5)

31

Those who say it's over are either defeatists or axelturfing.  Check out this plot showing all the polls from the 2006 congressional election.  Every single poll overstated the Dem margin of victory anywhere from 2 to 13%.  The actual margin was 7.9% yet the polls showed 10 to 21%.  It wasn't until the very last polls released the day before the election that three of them got reasonably close. 

If you remember, the final days included the Mark Foley scandal and lots of hysterical news reporting.  The margin didn't suddenly close.  The lead was being overstated all along.

http://tinyurl.com/5qb46p

We are being fed a line of BS to try and make this thing seem over.  It isn't, take heart.

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Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat

Ann Coulter
National Review Online
The Perfect World
Free Republic
Lucianne
The Note

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