AP: OBAMA 44, McCAIN 43

Dead even:


The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

More Movement... in Florida. Mason-Dixon had McCain down, now they have him up by two.

It has to be kept in mind, as we talk about flipping red states blue, that Obama needs to flip red states blue. McCain doesn't have the same requirement -- he could lose a red state or two and still win.

I point this out to Seattle Slough who will crow, "But you're just holding states you already had!"

Indeed. But the Red states counted for 286 electoral votes last time, didn't they?

I concede Iowa is a lost cause. Everywhere else... not so much, not so much.

Thanks to CJ.

Posted by: Ace at 01:30 PM



Comments

1 Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit.

Oh, here's one I like.

Posted by: Seattle Slough at October 22, 2008 01:33 PM (H5l9d)

2 Lesson: Nobody knows what the heck is going on or how the election is going to turn out. So VOTE! GOTV! Donate! Or, as McCain would say, FIGHT!

Posted by: Jim Digriz at October 22, 2008 01:33 PM (/Mtjv)

3 Hell, Kerry was winning in a landslide during the morning of election day 2004. Things can change within a few hours, especially when real people are involved instead of pundits.

Posted by: roy at October 22, 2008 01:35 PM (cB77O)

4 Polls are bullshit.

Posted by: Al at October 22, 2008 01:36 PM (Lk931)

5 "Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls
are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are
bullshit. Polls are bullshit. Polls are bullshit. OH here's one I like"

The left is using them to demoralize, ace is using them to rally. Don't hate the player hate the game. (Is that racist?)

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 01:38 PM (HAdov)

6 Seattle Slough,

This poll sort of proves that thesis. (Polls are crap) When they vary this wildly it s pretty much settled that no one who is running the things knows how to measure the samples. Crap in crap out. Thanks for pointing that out. You've been very helpful. Good job. Thanks.

Posted by: The Obvious at October 22, 2008 01:38 PM (1g+FW)

7 Polls are bull, but this one at least got the party spread right:
D - 48
R - 44
Includes independents and leaners.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 01:38 PM (R8+nJ)

8 SS: in order to maintain some degree of credibility the national polls are going to have to start actually reflecting reality. They're about finished with the electioneering phase and are moving into the salvaging respectability phase. Expect to see more of these really close polls---and riot squad mobilization.

Posted by: jd at October 22, 2008 01:38 PM (9kYWY)

9 McCain will win...if these polls show Obama up 2-4, McCain will win. I keep repeating myself but this is EXACTLY what happened with Kerry and Bush, the exception being, McCain is actually closer to Obama than Bush was at the same time point.
He can do this!
Especially when that Khalidi Obama video comes out

Posted by: jawbone at October 22, 2008 01:38 PM (/4Zu2)

10 Polls are not bullshit. Polls are adjusted so they don't look "wrong" for the next round. People don't buy polls from pollsters that are wrong.

And if the are going to be wrong, they better not be any wronger that any other poll.

But you people are not paying attention.

Polls don't matter. What matters is what the certified tally sheets say.

And I think the tally sheets with the correct numbers have already bee prepared.

Posted by: Larry Sheldon at October 22, 2008 01:39 PM (OmeRL)

11 Here's the internals, if anyone is interested. (PDF)

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 01:39 PM (R8+nJ)

12 No troll....
What that poll means is that this race isn't over, and the whole Axelrod campaign tactic to try to depress conservative turnout by saying it is won't fly.
Game... fucking.... on!

Posted by: Lee at October 22, 2008 01:40 PM (TxTIh)

13 Looks like AP is the first one to bolt from the pack to try to preserve some credibility - somebody had to.

Though they may try to spin it back the other way just before the election to show Obama "momentum".

Posted by: Jim62sch at October 22, 2008 01:40 PM (ubHgw)

14 The poll also included cell phone users - 30% of the likely voter sample.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 01:41 PM (R8+nJ)

15 Well, Kerry was winning in BS polls only. The good polls were all Bush leads within the MOE.

Here's the deal: Do not live and die by polls, there is a lot of potential error in methodology, particularly this year.

Pretend we are tied, because we probably are, given the number of seemingly persuadables this year.

This is a bad weekend for Obama to plan his vacation to see his recovering grandma. Without Michelle, it should be noted. With the duct tape over Biden's mouth, it's a good time for McCain to make some news.

Nevah, nevah, nevah give up!

Posted by: AmishDude at October 22, 2008 01:42 PM (T0NGe)

16 Does anyone notice we get weird Obama up by 14 point polls just prior to a poll showing a statistical tie lately?
Does anyone think there may be a concerted effort to manipulate the averages we see everywhere?
And yes the polls are mostly crap this year. Pew Research is nonpartisan, my ass.
Remind me to show you the email exchange I had with a VP there over their poll of "church going catholics" who supported "gay marriage" .


Posted by: Rocks at October 22, 2008 01:43 PM (Q1lie)

17 Like I said, I don't buy any of the polls right now. But this is certainly more in line with Ed Rendell telling Obama to come back to PA. If this is accurate ( big if, like I said, I think they're all crap) an Obama scandal ( ACORN, Odinga, Ayers, Joe Biden actually attedning a speakng engagement and speaking) could be very, very bad for him right now.

Posted by: The Obvious at October 22, 2008 01:43 PM (1g+FW)

18 Actually, I wonder if there will be a late breaking surge towards McCain on the weekend just before the election, much like Gore's surge against Bush. Of course, Obama probably doesn't have a DUI in his closet, but still.

Posted by: physics geek at October 22, 2008 01:45 PM (MT22W)

19 With a 4-1 spending advantage, and allObamessiah gets is 1pt now. This poll will never see the light of day.
Thank you Murtha! You fucking corrupt racist scumbag!
I wish Palin would come to do a rally in NY. Just to put a scare in the Obamabots.

Posted by: Iblis at October 22, 2008 01:45 PM (9221z)

20 Whatever... Does anyone know if Palin is going to do a center spread if she loses? (HELL EVEN IF SHE WINS!)

Picture Sarah with nothing on except those knee-highs she likes so much.



DAMN!

Well now I can't get up for a wee bit here

Posted by: Melodic Metal at October 22, 2008 01:45 PM (0TU9n)

21 wow, the thing is is that there is about 15% of the voting block that is undecided. They are scared of Obama, but have been lead to believe that McCain is a bad choice because of all the negative media coverage (and McCain's inability to defend and present himself well).

More war hero, Joe the plumber, VPILF, and tax cutting would help.

Putting financial panic on ACORN, Fannie Mae, and Obama would be better.

What would be best?

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 22, 2008 01:45 PM (QxSug)

22 Hot damn! That is good news (even thought all polls are bullshit).
And the IBD/TIPP poll show's The Marxist's lead shrinking from 6 to 3.7 in one day. Maybe Americans are finally starting to wake up to the fact that the Dhims are peddling a Marxist this year.

Posted by: TheAdmiral at October 22, 2008 01:45 PM (7umsY)

23 Polls ARE bullshit. But polls this time around are some kind of nutty, koo-koo, volatile bullshit.
And that's very interesting.

Posted by: S. Weasel at October 22, 2008 01:46 PM (rasT+)

24 SHHHHWINGGGG!!!!

Posted by: bitter, clinging Pennsylvanian at October 22, 2008 01:47 PM (bd68Z)

25 If all polls are bullshit, this bullshit poll is a good thing for Democrats. The last thing we want going into an election is for people to think it is wrapped up. We need our electorate to think their vote is crucial.

Posted by: Seattle Slough at October 22, 2008 01:49 PM (H5l9d)

26 So many undecideds at this very late date, too. They will decide this election. I can't quite figure out how anyone can be undecided at this point, though (or any point, for that matter, given the stark contrasts the candidates offer). Perhaps they're just people who don't feel like talking to the pollsters?

Posted by: neo-neocon at October 22, 2008 01:49 PM (1+EOf)

27 Seattle Slough.

look here. Dems can cause the housing crisis and claim it was republicans. The media vets only conservatives and states there is no media bias. We are just trying our hand at being duplicitous.

Still does not mean anything. Vote your conscience, unless you are Obama supporter, in which case go see your local Priest.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 01:49 PM (e2mBS)

28 Forget the "fall of Conservatism" baloney for a moment.



I think that when/if McCain wins this, it could easily shatter the
Democrat Party. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Losing the most gimmie election in living memory? The whole PUMAs
and primary debacles will rise up huge if the Messiah is not properly
anointed.





Posted by: Techie at October 22, 2008 01:50 PM (d621h)

29 Seattle Slough -- snarling past the graveyard.

Posted by: bluejade at October 22, 2008 01:50 PM (DjMXQ)

30 Hey, I hoped for some good news today and I got some!
I just keep working and talking to one potential McCain supporter after another, trying to do my little part for the team.

Posted by: ArandomPerson at October 22, 2008 01:51 PM (MSMPS)

31 Seattle, Ace has been pretty consistent in this area - hence the creation of the "Everything's Awesome" blog.

Commenters argue over polls and bullshit levels, but Ace is much closer to Allahpundit territory.

Posted by: AD at October 22, 2008 01:52 PM (e3ZNf)

32 I keep repeating myself but this is EXACTLY what happened with Kerry
and Bush, the exception being, McCain is actually closer to Obama than
Bush was at the same time point.

Most of the polls are bunk, but it's quite easy to look at the archives of RCP to see that Bush had a consistent lead over Kerry throughout October. There were a few aberrations (Fox's last poll had Kerry up by 2) but, actually, Bush led in just about every October poll. Google it, I telleth the truth.

This one's probably closer to the truth since it used a 4% party gap. Anyone believing the double digit Obama leads are either partisan or high. It's prolly Obama by 4 or so. Meaning: we can do this.

Of course, with out Queen Sarah, McCain would be in the mid 30s.

Posted by: RW at October 22, 2008 01:52 PM (5L9k4)

33 Of course, SS, the conservative base would NEVER get fired up by
indications of a statistical tie, meaning that a vote for their
candidate would be very important. Never.

Posted by: Techie at October 22, 2008 01:52 PM (d621h)

34
This is like Sears raising the price of something so they can drop it next week and have a BIG SALE. Do not follow polls

Posted by: billypaintbrush at October 22, 2008 01:54 PM (5aBkh)

35 Polls are not bullshit. They are useful tools.
But they are just tools.
Thecurrent poll mania on both sides is what warps the usefulness.
Remember, polls go up, polls go down.

Posted by: Bob from Ohio at October 22, 2008 01:54 PM (s6nMp)

36 isn't the slough the poster that was upset about Obama not promising same sex marriage? Or was that formermccainguy?

Posted by: Dick_Nixon at October 22, 2008 01:54 PM (kaOJx)

37 -
Since Pennsylvania is the new Ohio and Florida, let's ALL remember this:
Pennsylvania Republicans Nominated a Black Guy to Run for Governor (Lynn Swann) in 2006.
Democrats made an issue of Lynn Swann's lack of experience.
and the fact that Lynn Swann's middle name is Hochiminh
-

Posted by: BumperStickerist at October 22, 2008 01:55 PM (GuX8p)

38 Obama is going to visit Grandma because the democrat internals have shown a steady erosion of support for O! from working class whites in PA and OH.
Expect to see lots of network news stories on how Obama gets his core values (ahem!) from this strong working class white woman that raised him.
Murtha and Biden running their stupid ass mouths off haven't helped him, either. If Murtha to continues to speak hismind to reporters, PA could go to McCain.

Posted by: Log Cabin at October 22, 2008 01:55 PM (ITuw5)

39 Good to see that the movement in the polls is reflecting the voters my wife won over in Kinkos yesterday.

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 01:55 PM (HAdov)

40 We need our electorate to think their vote is crucial.

Blah blah fucking blah. Are you conducting a fucking civics class? Yes, the percentage of people voting in this country is a national disgrace but guess what: We've got a lot of lazy fucks in this country that I'd just as soon not vote because they've never made an intelligent decision in their life and at the polls is a strange place for a unique event to happen.

Posted by: Captain Hate at October 22, 2008 01:55 PM (m2sQh)

41
O
M
G
After the annointed one spends 1/2 Trillion smackeroos I can't wait to see the T-shirts made after he loses (knock on wood).

Posted by: Cluebat from Exodar at October 22, 2008 01:55 PM (WGcw3)

42 Polls are polls. Sometimes they are garbage in, garbage out. People are people, and sometime people change their minds. FWIW - I think the news is good, but nothing is in the bag. Being unsure so I trust the one who is Immutable is healthy.

If (when) McCain Palin win, I will thank God and give Him the credit for the divine intervention and many miracles that have been playing out. I'll also encourage other believing folks to do the same. God's timing is always right-on. That's my take and I'm sticking to it.


Posted by: Cathy at October 22, 2008 01:57 PM (qZp4R)

43 Seattle Slough,

Actually all this particular crappy poll does is lend credence to Ed Rendell's claim that PA is very much in play. I don't think the polls show any thing. Rendell might have a point, thouh. If after all the money Obama has spent he is still only up one or two, things aren't going to get better for him in Nov. This gives the PUMAS confirmation that they can change the whole election around as well. And makes it easier for conservative Dems to break ranks too. Polls are crap, but I don't think the Democratic coalition can stand up to them like the Republican base can. Problems fo Obama I think...big ones. Going to be even bigger when he gets back from Hawaii I bet.

Posted by: The Obvious at October 22, 2008 01:59 PM (1g+FW)

44 Polls, schmolls. I agree. They are all whack. What I do see though is a definite slippage by Barry. The truth about his leftism and shitbag associates is starting to resonate. People are starting to pay attention. They are doing what the Dems/MSM never did..they are vetting Barry. This race has always been a referendum on Barry. More and more people don't like his leftist koolaid.

McCain is rising from the dead again. Sound familiar?

Now, let's nationalize the congressional elections. Freddy/Fannie and corruption...sell it.

Posted by: Bruce in SoCal at October 22, 2008 02:00 PM (J6hTO)

45 Here's the part I like the best, from the story linked on Drudge:


Intensity has increased among McCain's supporters. A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now, the number of excited supporters is about even.
Eight of 10 Democrats are supporting Obama, while nine in 10
Republicans are backing McCain. Independents are about evenly split. Doing the happy dance here!

Posted by: CB at October 22, 2008 02:00 PM (9Wv2j)

46 I just perused the Daily Kos and Huffers post and no comment on the AP poll. Only outrage over Sarah's new wardrobe. I would be happy if the Dems would spend campaign money on clothes instead of ads.

Now where can I get a mental enema?

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 02:00 PM (e2mBS)

47 you know I think it is funny what the media does to polls. They make the polls lean democratic before the election. this does two things. It motivates the reps to show up at the polls and it gives the appearance of the rep canidate coming from behind. In effect the media by trying to demoralize the reps does the exact opposite.

Posted by: unseen at October 22, 2008 02:00 PM (aVGmX)

48 The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000 racist and rednecks.

Fixed it for ya.

Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 22, 2008 02:00 PM (C2//T)

49 Heh, this is worth a good laugh.

From the onion:

http://tinyurl.com/ypks3a

Posted by: dan-O at October 22, 2008 02:01 PM (teb/C)

50 Well, if you people follow the Limbaugh unified evil poll theory, these polls will tighten to better reflect reality the close we get to the election. I think with only 80% of country sure about who they are voting for, it makes sense that the polls right now are insane.

Two weeks to get 20% of the country to make up their minds.

I thought 2008 would be easy especially since a weak W beat Kerry with 95% total press coverage against him. If W could beat those odds, then maybe a real republican who would defend himself to the media would do better. But, you idiots nominated the only guy who isn't a real republican and won't defend himself to the press. And this time, the press is a full 100% in the tank for Saint Obama. And, as a special fuck you to Maverick, W is pulling his own version of Bill Clinton and seemingly trying to hurt McCain and no conservative feels any desire to create a 527 to help McCain when McCain has said he would throw said 527 under the bus.

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 22, 2008 02:01 PM (QxSug)

51 Seattle Slush and his ilk just seem a tad bit edgy, now don't they? Shoulda had this thing wrapped up by now.....

Posted by: nikkolai at October 22, 2008 02:01 PM (3KW6/)

52 Polls are bullshit.

Ya got THAT right...

Posted by: mojo at October 22, 2008 02:01 PM (g1cNf)

53
Crazy: the headline on today's Wall Street Journal is that Obama opened up a double-digit lead on their poll. Go figure.

My feeling, based on zero data whatsoever, is that some people who tell pollsters what they think the pollster wants to hear - or at least won't make them look bad in the pollster's eyes. And this year, given that Obama is the candidate of Goodness and Virtue, there's a real lot of people who say they support him when in fact they're leaning toward McCain, or just haven't made up their minds.



Posted by: Brown Line at October 22, 2008 02:02 PM (VrNoa)

54 Can I dip my balls? Or should I wait? How about if I just dip them a little. Maybe 1 ball (1 hangs a little lower)? How about if I dip them in something not entirely enjoyable like ice water?


Posted by: obammasmomma at October 22, 2008 02:02 PM (dwWnk)

55 The split among voters is apparent? Thanks for that brilliant nugget, AP! I thought voters were united in hope and change, but the polls say not.

Posted by: Pak at October 22, 2008 02:02 PM (glf8i)

56 Sorry, I was wrong about Kerry, maybe it was Gore.
Still think we can do this. Put the bumper sticker on my car today, looking forward to the body damage and spray paint on my truck.

Posted by: jawbone at October 22, 2008 02:03 PM (/4Zu2)

57 SS, if you're an Obama supporter, you should know that the unifying theme of the Left is what a bunch of pathetic losers they all are (obvious, or they wouldn't need the government to make them feel better). An even poll is as good for McCain as a lead because the average left wing voter 'knows' that their side doesn't deserve to win.

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 02:03 PM (QHtlg)

58 And needless to say, any undecided that hasn't warmed to Obama yet isn't very likely to warm to him at all.

Posted by: The Obvious at October 22, 2008 02:03 PM (1g+FW)

59 It's a testament to America's unwillingness to be pulled hard left that even Obama's 3 to 1 money advantage and 100 to 1 media advantage only buys him statistical margin of error

Posted by: Contributor X at October 22, 2008 02:04 PM (+bxIM)

60 I heard a 'non-partisian' Union ad today on radio telling union members the economy is the important issue and they shouldn't let Prejudice influence their vote.

was amazing to listen to really, followed with "this ad does not support any candidate or party' message

Posted by: jp at October 22, 2008 02:04 PM (DFDtC)

61 The thing I got out of this is 13 percent undecided?
Man, if I'm McCain I'm praying thats true because if you don't buy in right away on the Messiah, when are you?

Posted by: jjshaka at October 22, 2008 02:05 PM (AGaJD)

62
Okay, this poll shows a one-point race. Party breakdown is within historical norms:

48D

44R

Their last poll showed a 7-point Obama lead. Party breakdown:

51D

42R

These numbers include leaners.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:05 PM (R8+nJ)

63 Thanks Obvious, that goes well with my comment about the 20% of undecideds. How can they not be for hope and change by now?

They've had:
O's press glamoriztion
O's world tour
O's "wins" at the debates
Palin being smeared for a month
O's millions and millions of dollars of commercials

oh, and...

a contrived and well timed financial crisis blamed solely on W.

And they still aren't going for the guy. we think.

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 22, 2008 02:06 PM (QxSug)

64 Just as I suspected. Joe the Plumber is the only thing McCain has done right in 2 months. If not for JTP and Sarah, McCain would be down by 30 points.

Posted by: fugazi at October 22, 2008 02:06 PM (F6EdD)

65 I always wondered are polls skewed because of:

Obama supporters are eager to share their stupidy by wanting to tell posters who they support in greater numbers than the average American

or

are enough of them lying to pollsters and say they are Republican or independant to skew the weighting?

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 02:06 PM (HAdov)

66 Do we need another thread about polls, really?

We all know the pollsters are in the tank, that their ID spreads make no sense, and that Barry/Oprah is not closing the sale.

Don't forget about the Bradley Effect either. The Marxist goes down in two weeks! And all you Democrats out there: Don't forget to vote November 14!

Posted by: Fresh Air at October 22, 2008 02:08 PM (+j+vu)

67 I bet that undecideds break 2.5 - 1 for McCain. At the end of the day, standing in the booth, who is going to vote for a "crisis" from the world when we are already in a financial mess.

Also, funny how 8 of 10 dems supporting Barry equates 9 of 10 repubs. Last I checked, my moron math tells me 90% is better than 80%.

Posted by: Bruce in SoCal at October 22, 2008 02:08 PM (J6hTO)

68 I suspect it will wind up being close, and my gut instinct tells me there is a 65% chance the libs will litigate if it is close, but not in their favor. Could be a long one...

Posted by: Sgt York at October 22, 2008 02:09 PM (u3pgy)

69 Fox reporting now that AP is telling people to take this poll with a grain of salt because they have 'concerns' about the polling operation.

Translation: "We didn't mean to tell the truth so soon. Our bad."

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 02:10 PM (QHtlg)

70 Today, Mac is on the attack about BO's socialist agenda and BO is on the defense about his socialist agenda.

Gotta love it.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 02:11 PM (Rpam5)

71 Seattle Slough @ 1:

Close: For ANY single poll to claim to constitute an accurate prediction of an election two weeks away is, indeed, as you say.

But you write that you "like" this poll - or in case you're being sarcastic, you are calling Ace on this.

Now, is there any scientific support for the idea that one's like [or dislike] of the results of a poll make it "better"?

It all depends what you mean by "better":

If you mean "It relieves my stress" or "It releases my endorphins" or "It made me cum", then certainly, the best judge of that is you [or Ace - or either], and thus what you wrote, or what Ace wrote that you are mocking, is a true statement, subject only to whether you, or Ace, is lying - about which I know [a] in your case, nothing, and in the case of Ace, quite a bit - such that the possibility cannot be discounted.

On the other hand, if you mean "is it an accurate portrayal of public opinion within the time frame", well then the answer with THIS particular poll is:

no chance.

Ace, quite fairly, has linked to an AP article about its poll. Take a look at the "methodology" - because that's where you will find the "madology".

The gist is this: random calls out of a phone book, with no discussion of whether or not the structure of phone books in general or this one in particular in fact reflects randomness.

Next: proper poll samples don't reflect randomness - they reflect a combination of randomness with compensating factors.

Any compensating factors here?

Nope.

Is this poll "bull shit"? Well, only to the extent it claims to be a poll.

Now, why would a fine upstanding neutral news wire like AP do such a thing?

Because since the beginning of this year AP ceased to be a "fine upstanding neutral news wire" - & became the same sort of tool for the owner's agenda as Fox News is for its.

Still, I don't mean to spoil your fun. Just be sure to clean yourselves properly afterwards.

And that stuff about 'going blind'? Doctors now say its BULL SHIT.

Posted by: diderot's dog at October 22, 2008 02:11 PM (nrD02)

72 I haven't met a single Obama supporter who has enough sense of humor to lie to a pollster and say they are GOP or Independent. And I live in So Cal, so I mostly know Obama supporters. They have NO sense of humor, irony, perspective. It's all about the hopey/changey glow with them.

And, great point made by several posters above. It's very hard to believe that any undecided who has not yet drunk the KoolAid will suddenly do so in the next 13 days.

Posted by: CB at October 22, 2008 02:11 PM (9Wv2j)

73 Don't believe this poll, either. Run, run, run. Keep pushing, pushing, pushing. A win is not enough-- fight, fight, fight, because nothing less than total electoral obliteration of the opposition is sufficient.

Crush their spirit, crush their will, crush their fraud machine, and crush their dreams of a progrom of the injustice of 'social justice.' Do not bend, do not break, do not stop when you taste the blood in your teeth. Crush them, pound them, 'get in their face.'

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at October 22, 2008 02:12 PM (MMC8r)

74 Anyone that thinks Obama is going to win in a landslide needs their head examined.
Anyone who believes that there are as many undecideds as the press is saying needs their head examined. The polls are tighter then anyone really knows. If in fact Obama was up by 10+ points, why all the cheating by Acorn? Acorn/dems seem to think that this election is going to come by eking out wins in Ohio, and Penn? Why? What do they know that no one else does?

Heads will explode come election day.

K

Posted by: Kestrel♠ at October 22, 2008 02:12 PM (0106Q)

75 Dailykos, Huffington, and DU didn't have the story about Biden either. They only report the shit that keeps their koolaid followers in line.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 02:13 PM (Rpam5)

Posted by: diderot's dog at October 22, 2008 02:13 PM (nrD02)

77 The only reason this poll is different is the major shift in how many Ds and Rs were polled. The race has likely been this close for a week or so.

This poll, like all others, is someone's best guess on what turnout will look like two weeks from now. Polling is bunk.

The main reason this poll is good news is that it will, in the minds of the public, shatter the inevitability meme the Obamites have been attempting to create and make lefty heads explode.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:15 PM (R8+nJ)

78 Neither candidate has made the sale in this election but the movement has been toward McCain.
I agree we should watch what the campaigns are doing and ignore the polls.
The working class isn't buying what Obama is selling and the union thugs in MissouriI have talked to are rebelling against their leadership. They are not drinking the One's kool-aid. McCain will carry Missouri.

Posted by: Larsen E. Whipsnade at October 22, 2008 02:15 PM (6BgmB)

Posted by: diderot's dog at October 22, 2008 02:15 PM (nrD02)

80 Stinky is right. Get out the vote. Talk to people. Everywhere I go, I ask, Who are you voting for? You would be surprised how many people do not know about Ayers or ACORN!

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 02:16 PM (Rpam5)

81 Off topic. Huffer's Post has an article about Sarah's CNN interview and the author states the following:

"What is most disgraceful about this interview is the flaccid and uncritical role of the interviewer -- Drew Griffin. How can he call himself a journalist?"

ROTFLMAO

We see that every time Obama is quizzed by the press.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 02:16 PM (e2mBS)

82 The polls have tightened in order to extort another round of funding from the parties (one in particular) to the media.

Posted by: seyont at October 22, 2008 02:16 PM (FcR7P)

83 I noticed no one is talking about Zogby that has Obama up now by like a million points though.

I'm not optimistic. I think this election is going to mark the beginning of the end. We have been saddled with the unwelcome reality of witnessing the death of our nation happening in our lifetimes.

Posted by: Lincoln Adams at October 22, 2008 02:17 PM (gLNLT)

84 I think that when/if McCain wins this, it could easily shatter the
Democrat Party. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Losing the most gimmie election in living memory? The whole PUMAs
and primary debacles will rise up huge if the Messiah is not properly
anointed.

I've heard talk of riots and general Dem panic and it won't happen. It won't happen because on Nov. 5, if he loses, Obama is the runaway frontrunner for 2012. In fact, I tell any lib who will listen that we can wait 4 years for Obama. No big deal. If electing Obama is so important, then it'll be better for everyone, including him, if he's elected in 2012 or 2016.

Most of our good presidents have lost presidential elections.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 22, 2008 02:17 PM (T0NGe)

85 Troll alert - #81 - DD is in the house, guys...

Posted by: IC at October 22, 2008 02:17 PM (jZNCU)

86 Diderot's Dildo: AP is a right wing propaganda operation?

Hahahahahaha hahahahahahaha hahahahahaha !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I knew we kept you around for a reason. Thanks, I needed that.

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 02:18 PM (QHtlg)

87 Qwinn, we talked about Intrade the other night...good luck!

I'm going to throw a few bucks on my Phillies, they're underdogs too.

Posted by: Dr. Remulak at October 22, 2008 02:18 PM (YmPwQ)

88 You're right, AmishDude, it will give us four fucking years to gather all the dirt on BO and expose him for what he truly is. He will never recover.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 02:19 PM (Rpam5)

89 Amish,

The Democratic party will survive no matter what. But Obama won't survive a loss politically. He has too much baggage ( ACORN, Ayers...etc.) the sane part of the Dem party will quietly put him out to pasture.

Posted by: The Obvious at October 22, 2008 02:21 PM (1g+FW)

90 Go to the state polls. Rasmussen today has McCain up by 9 in West Virginia, up by 2 in Ohio, up by 1 in Florida and down by 3 in North Carolina. Zogby has McCain up by 6.5 in Nevada, tied in Colorado and tied in New Mexico. An Obama staff person in Pennsylvania put out a memo to 700 people stating that his internal polling only has Obama up by 2 percent.

So if some are really worried about polls, those look rather promising. With a billion dollars americans will not be bought. If he cannot put Mac to pasture with money like that just like hecould not put Hillary away. Face it, Senator Government lost against clinton. If it were a republican primary Hillary won on super tuesday. The democrats ran an affirmative action primary and now Senator Government will be embarassed.
It is all a ruse. If Senator Government was sprinting to the finish his cohorts in the MSM and the pollsters would not be pulling out all of the stops to win.
Senator G's half hour network buy will be the nail in his coffin. He is going to be on 3 different channels in primetime. Poeple are going to bepissed he is invading their homes and realize they DO NOT want this. Not to mention i am willing to bet mac bags 35-40% of hillary voters. Not to mention alot of conservative dems who may not have voted.
McCain:"We've got them right where we want them"

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 02:22 PM (zzms8)

91 Ah, look, Diderot's Douchenozzle has joined the fray. Always nice to have the perspective of the mentally unhinged bloc.

Posted by: CB at October 22, 2008 02:22 PM (9Wv2j)

92 But what about my pie? Obammer promised me pie!
From the WSJ:
'The economy still dominates Obama’s speeches, but the crowds are laughing along, not lamenting their dire straits. In Miami, he responded to McCain’s criticism that his economic plan amounts to redistributing wealth and dividing up a static economic pie rather than expanding the pie. “After eight years of Bush and McCain economics, the pie is shrinking, and what’s left of the pie has been eaten by millionaires and billionaires,” he declared. “Everyone here wants some pie.”
To that, the crowd struck up the chant, “We want pie! We want pie!”'

Not my pie! Not my pie! What happened to "you do the bakin' and I'll do the takin'?"

Posted by: ronnie dobbs at October 22, 2008 02:22 PM (DZmDA)

93 In addition to the summary, the last 3 Florida polls all show McCain ahead.

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 02:22 PM (HAdov)

94 Qwinn = speculator. Wagering is counterrevolutionary.
Aseat on the bench in reeducation camp awaits you if Chicago Jesus prevails. While you're wearing stripes, denouncing others, and getting your mind right, any outstanding boodle you might've squirrelled awaywill be...wait for it..."spread out."

Posted by: railwriter at October 22, 2008 02:23 PM (nwEiU)

95 You know, AmishDude (#86) - I don't know if you're right. If BO was a Republican, you bet he'd be the front runner next time around, no question. But the Dems don't seem to work that way. They never have the same guy again -- it's always some new face, and when that person loses they get tossed aside like an old shoe. The Repubs are said to be the heirarchical party, in that we tend to nominate the guy who's next in line, even if he lost the last time, and maybe that's true and that has it's pros and cons. (See Reagan, Dole, McCain.) But the Dems never seem do that. My guess is that if Obama loses they'll all use his loss as a stick to beat the rest of us with, but only a very few will bother to consider him again. Think Gore, Kerry, Edwards.

Posted by: bluejade at October 22, 2008 02:24 PM (DjMXQ)

96 I don't know K, I think that ACORN would be cheating no matter what the polls say, there is no inference to be taken from the looney left's behavior.

Conservatives had better hope that the undecideds are impervious to hope and change in the next 2 weeks because that disease has hit a lot (but not most) of the country already.

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 22, 2008 02:24 PM (QxSug)

97 ppp: I love you. :-)

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 02:24 PM (Rpam5)

98 If all polls are bullshit, this bullshit poll is a good thing for
Democrats. The last thing we want going into an election is for people
to think it is wrapped up. We need our electorate to think their vote
is crucial.

Then wouldn't it be at least as good for Republicans as well? The last thing we need is for people to think McCain has no fucking chance.

Posted by: bunny boy at October 22, 2008 02:25 PM (YsSn7)

99 Also, funny how 8 of 10 dems supporting Barry equates 9 of 10 repubs. Last I checked, my moron math tells me 90% is better than 80%
Depends on if the number you are getting 80% of is larger than the number you get 90% of. And that happens right around the44/48 split for republicans and democrats.

Posted by: buzzion at October 22, 2008 02:25 PM (Lrsi6)

100 Mac said today on Bill Bennett that they are 5 points down. I don't know what that means, but that is what he said. He also said that they will be "fine" come election day. Also, don't know what that means.

Posted by: Judd at October 22, 2008 02:25 PM (BXHeE)

101 "Looks like AP is the first one to bolt from the pack to try to preserve some credibility - somebody had to.Though they may try to spin it back the other way just before the election to show Obama "momentum"."
Posted by: Jim62sch at October 22, 2008 01:40 PM
fwiw I think you are right....

Woot worthy! WOOT!

Posted by: freetofly at October 22, 2008 02:26 PM (BjnH7)

102 This is off topic, but does Obama's campaign remind anyone of Nixon's CREEP? I got it: the "Campaign to Rightfully Annoint the Potentate"... Obama's CRAP. What other possible acronyms are there?

Posted by: A.G. at October 22, 2008 02:26 PM (9syav)

103 If we cant force them out, we'll breed them out. Crap that wont work either.

Posted by: Longshanks at October 22, 2008 02:26 PM (5ap+X)

104 Hair pie?

Posted by: Bruce in SoCal at October 22, 2008 02:26 PM (J6hTO)

105 I feel the positive energy and excitement coming back around here. It really sucked for a while while you guys were moping and punching yourselves in the nuts like the MSM wanted you to.

Now let's make sure we win this thing so we can go back to vicious infighting and flaming. It's so much more fun than mass self-immolation.

Posted by: runninrebel at October 22, 2008 02:26 PM (0n9wc)

106 I'm still suffering from the delusion that anyone cares what I think.

Posted by: diderot's dog at October 22, 2008 02:27 PM (nrD02)

107 incognito, I don't mention that, without the pressure of a campaign and with 4 years to round up another candidate, that Obama's skeletons will be dragged out of the closet.

But I think it's a persuasive point: With Obama hiding so much (school transcripts, medical records, associations, etc.) isn't it dangerous to try to rush this through? Give him four years for us to know who the hell he is and for him to gain some experience. Plus, McCain is a middle-of-the-road guy and won't institute the draft like Obama will.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 22, 2008 02:27 PM (T0NGe)

108 5 Points Down means ... Mac still wants us to fight (we're down).

We'll be fine means ... internal polling shows a much tighter race and Mac ahead in more states than not.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 02:27 PM (Rpam5)

109 which of these poll results is not like the other?

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

you ace-nuts have really mastered the art of cherry-picking this year.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:28 PM (h5C3f)

110 For all of the "Obama landslide" talk nonsense, at Pollster.com, Obama only has 286 electoral votes at the moment. McCain has 157 with 95 in toss up status. That's with them showing Virginia as SOLID BLUE, which I don't buy for a second.

We've got to keep fighting. You don't know how many people I see each day saying, "It's over." Make sure they see this stuff. We have an electorate where I am certain 10-12% at this point are still undecided and ready to jump to McCain. Spread the news about what Biden said. Talk about the tax increases. Talk about Democrats bringing back the Fairness Doctrine. Tell them to go to watch this guy:

http://tinyurl.com/59dv8b

who explains what will happen with Obama's health care plan better than McCain does. Remind them about what happened with terrorism the last time a Democrat was in charge, and he wasn't a leftist like Obama.

The Democrats hope right now is to win playing a prevent defense. Telling everybody over and over again that "It's over." If you're an NFL Giants fan, you remember 2003. You remember that game against the 49ers. You remember how the Giants were ahead by 24 points. And you remember saying, "It's over." And you remember the 49ers coming back and winning it.

I know football comparisons are cliche, but I'm about ready to smack the next person who supports McCain and tells me, "It's over."

Posted by: Jay at October 22, 2008 02:28 PM (efvZp)

111 It won't happen because on Nov. 5, if he loses, Obama is the runaway frontrunner for 2012.

Ha, ha, ha, ha , ha....good one. There is an unwritten rule in the Dem party since Stevenson. You only get the nomination once and lose. Obama wins here or he is McGovern/Modale/Dukakis. You don't raise half a billion dolaars, lose and have people do it again, it's not happening. If Obama loses you'll here a shit load of talk about race but any Dem strategists worth his salt will know it's because Obama was WAY to liberal.

Posted by: Rocks at October 22, 2008 02:29 PM (Q1lie)

112 I thought Seattle Slough had been bashed with the Ban Hammer????

Posted by: Vic at October 22, 2008 02:29 PM (b1ysY)

113 Did someone fart? I smell something damn awful. Like an egg salad left too long out in the sun or something.

Posted by: Lee at October 22, 2008 02:31 PM (TxTIh)

114 you ace-nuts have really mastered the art of cherry-picking this year.

Check the party distribution on the rest of those polls and get back to us.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:32 PM (R8+nJ)

115
Fair and balanced polling guys:

Less than two weeks before Election
Day, Barack Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 40 percent among
likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday.




Obama's
advantage comes mainly from independents, and from the fact that more
voters identify themselves as Democrats these days and almost all of
them back their party's nominee.




Eighty-eight
percent of Democrats support Obama, and 83 percent of Republicans back
McCain. Independents break 44 percent to 35 percent in Obama's favor.




In
addition to independents, white Catholics are another important swing
voting group and they support Obama 50 percent to 39 percent. White
Catholics have voted for the winner in each of the last four
presidential elections.




New voters — people who have registered to vote in the last two years — back Obama by 51 percent to 40 percent.




A FOX News poll published Oct. 10 among registered voters found Obama leading McCain by seven points, 46 percent to 39 percent.
http://www.foxnews.com /story/0,2933,443343,00.html


Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:33 PM (h5C3f)

116 Lincoln Adams, if you love the national Zogby and trust it so much. Why do you not trust the state polls released yesterday by Zogby that has Mac ahead in all of the states he needs to win plus ties in states that will add to the lead.
Rasmussen showed a poll today with VA going to Mac by 9.

Stop fretting. FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT for our future.
If you give up then you can explain to my children why Senator Government deserves to take money from my children to give to cronies and those less deserving than those who bust their balls and work.

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 02:34 PM (zzms8)

117 Anyone nervous that Obama's half hour ads, to be timed right before election day, might sway people who haven't made up their minds? I'm really just wondering. A half hour is a long time on the air and you know he's going to try to look all presidential.

Posted by: Sassypants at October 22, 2008 02:34 PM (YTo5g)

118 I thought 2008 would be easy especially since a weak W beat Kerry with 95% total press coverage against him. If W could beat those odds, then maybe a real republican who would defend himself to the media would do better. But, you idiots nominated the only guy who isn't a real republican and won't defend himself to the press. And this time, the press is a full 100% in the tank for Saint Obama. And, as a special fuck you to Maverick, W is pulling his own version of Bill Clinton and seemingly trying to hurt McCain and no conservative feels any desire to create a 527 to help McCain when McCain has said he would throw said 527 under the bus.
Posted by: joeindc44 at October 22, 2008 02:01 PM (QxSug)
I actually kind of hope Obama wins so all the people who voted for McCain because he had "purity" on the abortion issue (unlike Romney who changed his position or Guiliani, who would be up 10 points in the polls right now, who agreed to appoint constructionist judges) can enjoy government funding of abortions, repeal of all restrictions on abortions including parental notification and the re-legalization of partial birth abortions because that's what they are gonna get. On the good side they will get the warm fuzzy feeling of knowing that they were willing to vote for a pro-life Democrat hawk as the Republican presidential nominee in order to make sure that their single issue zealotry was made perfectly clear andto make sure that no pro-choice or insuffiently pro-life candidate will ever run for the Republican nomination forPresident again.
As someone on the libertarian conservative side of the old Republican coalition Ihave noted over the years that whileI have been perfectly willing to compromise and support candidates who took positions I don't like on social issues you social conservatives have noproblem with throwing any of our issues down thecrapper in order to get your obsessions pandered to. Case in point JohnMcCain. It's hard for me to not want you to get what you deserve; which is a major setback for the pro-life movement. Unfortunately for me but fortunately for youIdon't bite of my nose to spite my face so I'll pull the lever for a manI don't trust and who is essentially the exact opposite of me politically (socially liberal, fiscally conservative) in order to try to limit the damage to this country and freedom overall from the worse choice. Lookout if theDemocrats ever regain their sanity and choose to shed the liberal fiscal policy bs (or even tone it down to a sane level) and quitwith the pacifist foreign policybecauseI'll bedropping you folks like a hot rock (I voted for Clinton in 96, if Obama wasn't a Marxist and a foreign policy dove I'd vote for him) and I couldn't care less if gay marriage,prostitution and drugs are legalized as a result.

Posted by: Big E at October 22, 2008 02:35 PM (uw1/g)

119 “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for
McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980
model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days
before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only
victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points
among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among
Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29,
5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among
Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point
victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down
among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among
investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:35 PM (h5C3f)

120
For sure, Iowa is a waste. The farmers all became Welfare Queens over the years. Davenport and Cedar Rapids are union strongholds and Des Moines fancies itself as the Hartford CT of the plains. Smugness prevails

Posted by: billypaintbrush at October 22, 2008 02:35 PM (5aBkh)

121 Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:33 PM (h5C3f)Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:35 PM (h5C3f)

You know what I love?

The smell of desperation.

And pie.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:36 PM (R8+nJ)

122 ppp, you're a chick, right? I hope anyway.

Posted by: Lee at October 22, 2008 02:36 PM (TxTIh)

123
I don't understand.

Over at the Commentary blog ("Contentions") there's this:
A new poll
by the Pew Research Center for the People the Press, conducted
Oct. 16-19 among 2,599 registered voters interviewed on landline phones
and cell phones, includes news that is across-the-board discouraging
for McCain supporters.
According to the Pew data, Senator Obama enjoys his widest margin
yet over McCain among registered voters (52% v. 38%). When the sample
of voters is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53%
to 39%.
While this poll has Senator McCain down by 14 points, which is on the high end of all the polls taken, the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Obama ahead by 10. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average today is 7.4 percent.
I'm genuinely confused. What's going on? Can someone explain all this to me?

Posted by: Steve (aka Ed Snate) at October 22, 2008 02:36 PM (vursn)

124 Check the party distribution on the rest of those polls and get back to us.

LOL. Yeah, like that obot is really going to do THAT.

You know you've hit a nerve when the Obots come out in force.

Gotta fuckin' love it.

Posted by: incognito(yes,imachick) at October 22, 2008 02:37 PM (Rpam5)

125 "Rasmussen showed a poll today with VA going to Mac by 9. "

Are you sure that was a poll? Are you sure it wasn't ... NOTHING?

Continuing to live in the world of make-believe ... "remarkable," as McFail would say.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/va/08-va-pres-ge-mvo.php

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:37 PM (h5C3f)

126 I don't know if you're right. If BO was a Republican, you bet he'd be
the front runner next time around, no question. But the Dems don't
seem to work that way. ...Think Gore, Kerry, Edwards.

I know that. But there are several things to ponder here. First, it's the Dems' fault if they throw "good" candidates overboard. If the people want Obama in 2012, the Dems will renominate him, like his fellow "intellectual" Adlai Stevenson. Second, because he resonates so much with the Dem base -- blacks and college professors -- and is so young, he stands the best chance at a renomination. Third, you don't actually tell people these facts. Let them dream.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 22, 2008 02:37 PM (T0NGe)

127 Slighty OT, but Zo has a new video and Treacher's got it on his site. Totally worth a watch.

Posted by: CB at October 22, 2008 02:38 PM (9Wv2j)

128 Well, I'll crush on you then. *blush*

Posted by: Lee at October 22, 2008 02:38 PM (TxTIh)

129 More important than the net (+1% Obama) was the huge undecided percentage (13%). I subscribe to the theory that late decides will break for McCain by 2:1 or better. Under that theory, almost 1/3 of the RCP polls are McCain leading or in the MOE, and the current AP poll is a solid win, 52-48 McCain. Add the fact that McCain has some momentum, and the race is far from over.
On a side note, there will be hell to pay if McCain wins in the Electoral College but loses the popular vote. Bush/Gore will be like a conceded Ryder Cup hole.Plus,McCain would have to win by more than the margin of litigation + fraud in key states.

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 02:39 PM (Hj9yW)

130 Lookout if theDemocrats ever regain their sanity and choose to shed
the liberal fiscal policy bs (or even tone it down to a sane level) and
quitwith the pacifist foreign policybecauseI'll bedropping you
folks like a hot rock

Heh. Looks like you'll be with us for awhile, Big E.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:39 PM (R8+nJ)

131 Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:37 PM (h5C3f)

Like I said, the best thing about this poll?

Exploding lefty heads.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:40 PM (R8+nJ)

132 Hey, "dw" stand for DICKWAD? Just wondering ...

Posted by: incognito(yes,imachick) at October 22, 2008 02:40 PM (Rpam5)

133 I think it had Mac down by 9 in VA.

Posted by: Judd at October 22, 2008 02:40 PM (BXHeE)

134 If "Catholics" are supporting Obama by an 11-point lead, then they need to stop calling themselves Catholics. Who are these people, they were baptized as Catholics when they were babies and haven't darkened the doorway of a church in ten years?

I DARE any "Catholic"--or any decent human being, for that matter--to read this:

http://tinyurl.com/4pyhhl

--and then tell me they're still planning on voting for Barack Obama.!

Posted by: Kathy from Kansas at October 22, 2008 02:40 PM (kZ9L/)

135 I let my brother take a shit in my mouth last night.


I liked the taste so much that I didn't brush my teeth this morning.

Posted by: diderot's dog at October 22, 2008 02:41 PM (nrD02)

136 "Check the party distribution on the rest of those polls and get back to us.

LOL. Yeah, like that obot is really going to do THAT.

You know you've hit a nerve when the Obots come out in force.

Gotta fuckin' love it."

Fox News breakdown:

Dems 36%, Repubs 31%. Seems pretty conservative to me. But I'm sure you'll continue to believe that this should be 50-50, and if you know how to do any math at all, even then that wouldn't fix that little ol' 9 point lead.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:41 PM (h5C3f)

137 Michael Barone was just on Fox talking about the 'accuracy' of polls in the primary, which struck me as screwy until I understood what he meant. Obama, he says, got exactly the percentage predicted by the poll, but his opponent got the rest (overperforming their predicted take). In other words, though he didn't explicitly say so, all the undecideds break against Obama!

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 02:42 PM (QHtlg)

138 Chuck Schumer just clarified Obama's tax cut on MS/NBC for "those who earn less than 250 billion dollars."


Posted by: mesablue at October 22, 2008 02:42 PM (5yNaE)

139 Dems are stupid. They have the media in their pocket, and enough money to buy all the polls and "news" they want, and the ability to control congress, up to and includingtriggering acredit meltdown (Chuckie) and making sure the blame goes everywhere but on themselves. So what do they do?
They spend their time and money creating a sense of inevitability!Many of themknow in their heads that this is not a smart strategy, but you know what - it feeeeeels soooo goood!! And so many Dems don't rely on anything else - if it feels good, it must be right.
All we have to do is not fall for their bullshit... like they have!
ps. True, some Dems are smart, but it doesn't matter because they know their base... and their base won't get out of bed on the 4th unless they get to experience a big win - so they have to guarantee a blowout!
pps. All I want is to see Chris Matthews cry like a spoiled little girl who didn't getthe pony for Christmas!

Posted by: sherlock at October 22, 2008 02:42 PM (h6sl7)

140 Murtha may finally lose his House seat, too. If McCain won PA and Murtha lost his seat....wow, just wow.

Posted by: Cedric at October 22, 2008 02:43 PM (lnz0F)

141 in the primaries the undecideds always broke for Hillary, IIRC 3-1 or 4-1 margins

and the exit polls were waaaay way off as well (which didnt stop the doofy bastids in my party form using them to estimate what Obummer would have gotten ahd he been on the Damn ballot in MI) but I digress

the breakdown now looks exactly like it did in our primaries, the blue collar vote is going to MAC/Palin!

WOOT!!

MAC/PALIN 08
Hillary 12

Posted by: ginaswo at October 22, 2008 02:43 PM (rneOK)

142
"Like I said, the best thing about this poll?

Exploding lefty heads."

Nope it was actually this poll that caused exploding lefty heads:

"Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has steadily increased since
mid-September, when the race was essentially even. Shortly after the
first presidential debate on Sept. 26, Obama moved to a 49% to 42%
lead; that margin inched up to 50% to 40% in a poll taken just after
the second debate. Currently, Obama enjoys his widest margin yet over
McCain among registered voters, at 52% to 38%. When the sample of
voters is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to
39%."
http://people-press.org/report/462/obamas-lead-widens

The Fox +9 one is just your average 5-10 point lead poll that is about what we are seeing from every 9 out of 10 polls or so.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:44 PM (h5C3f)

143 Dems 36%, Repubs 31%. Seems pretty conservative to me. But I'm sure
you'll continue to believe that this should be 50-50, and if you know
how to do any math at all, even then that wouldn't fix that little ol'
9 point lead

Nonsense. Check the raw data again, pal.

Dems 43%, Repubs 37%
Page 13, last question (PDF)

You might want to bone up on reading comprehension.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:45 PM (R8+nJ)

144 Kathy - The Catholics supporting Obama are what we call Cafeteria Catholics and obviously, are not practicing their faith. They may not pay in this life time, but they surely will in the afterlife. More pity to them.

Posted by: IC at October 22, 2008 02:45 PM (jZNCU)

145 The Fox +9 one is just your average 5-10 point lead poll that is about what we are seeing from every 9 out of 10 polls or so.

Polls that wildly overestimate or overpoll the number of Democrats who actually vote. Historically, the party ID gap is around 3-4 points.

But if you choose to believe polls that have 8 to 10 to 14 point gaps, you're deluding yourself.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:47 PM (R8+nJ)

146 "Michael Barone was just on Fox talking about the 'accuracy' of polls in
the primary, which struck me as screwy until I understood what he
meant. Obama, he says, got exactly the percentage predicted by the
poll, but his opponent got the rest (overperforming their predicted
take). In other words, though he didn't explicitly say so, all the undecideds break against Obama!"

and

"in the primaries the undecideds always broke for Hillary, IIRC 3-1 or 4-1 margins"


Actually, if you care a little about something we on the left call "evidence," or "data," or "facts," Obama outperformed his poll numbers against Hillary

"On average, Barack Obama overperformed the Pollster.com trendline by 3.3 points on election day."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/ persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:47 PM (h5C3f)

147 Lee, no i am a MAN. A father. A worker. A lower-middle-class guy from central PA.Home of hard-work determination and love of this beautiful nation. We love our guns. We love our religion. We hate poeple projecting their own bigotry on us. We hate socialism and fascism. That is why the T in PA will come out like never before. Democrat and Republican will unite on election day to defeat Obama and Defend Freedom. We smashed England and created the greatest experiment in our earth's history, U.S.A. Because of to much TAXATION. And that is why we will smash Senator Government.
DD, again i could give a fuck less. A rat's ass.about ANY poll at all.
duhonly poll dat is real isduh one i pull the mutha-fuckin levah in holmesas an urban Obama supporter may say.

Posted by: ppp at October 22, 2008 02:48 PM (zzms8)

148 [a] a big question as to whether those being polled who self-report
as "registered" in fact know what the fuck they're talking about, given
the amount of voter suppression by GOP authorities;





Isn't voter suppression something like taking peoples' names off of a petition to ensure that a rival isn't on the ballot?

I'm sure Mickey Mouse is upset that people have called him ineligible to vote.

[c] a big question about the size of the 18-35 year old "cell phone
onlys", since we really don't have any measure on their numbers, how
many are registered, how many will show up, and how they will vote.


And whether they want to be drafted under an Obama/Biden administration.



To some extent, the higher number of Dems who claim to be
registered will be offset by the fact that GOP vote suppression aims at
Dems.

Gotta love that "vote suppression". Not people who are not voting, mind you. Thanks to provisional ballots, you can cast a ballot even if you aren't officially registered. But it does "scare people away" from the voting booth.

People who vote multiple times, people who vote under phony names, non-citizens, felons who are ineligible to vote...

Palin and RNC fear mongering and race baiting

I keep hearing that. Now besides the fact that Obama's been race-baiting for months (I don't look like the other guys, etc.) and has been begging to exploit it, there's this weird notion that Palin's race-baiting. I suppose it's because she's from Alaska or something. Probably her husband being half-Inuit and the legendary racial animosity between half-blacks and half-Inuits.

Or...maybe it's because she's criticizing Obama and Dems like to make shit up.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 22, 2008 02:48 PM (T0NGe)

149 250 billion dollars? LOL!

Funny how the obots hate FOX but love their polls.

Posted by: incognito(yes,imachick) at October 22, 2008 02:48 PM (Rpam5)

150 dog
The hell you say
Obama got his fucking ass handed to him by Hillary in the important states, and was pushed over the line by a fawning media and pantshitting party elites worried about a bloodbath if "whitey" took the nomination from him
Campaign genius my ass.
Further- were it not for historical circumstances- a shouldnt be unpopular but is anyway war, a media/hollywood demonized president who will turn out to be a pretty decent president, and a financial meltdown caused in part by Democrat malfeasance (combined with a bit less GOP malfeasance and just straight up private sector greed),
McCain would absolutely, unequivocally be kicking the shit out of your ken doll candidate
Axelrod? Plouffe? Could be laurel and fucking hardy campaigning for howdy fucking doody and he'd still have better than even odds of winning

Posted by: TMF at October 22, 2008 02:48 PM (waaUg)

151 "Dems 36%, Repubs 31%. Seems pretty conservative to me. But I'm sure
you'll continue to believe that this should be 50-50, and if you know
how to do any math at all, even then that wouldn't fix that little ol'
9 point lead

Nonsense. Check the raw data again, pal.

Dems 43%, Repubs 37%
Page 13, last question (PDF)

You might want to bone up on reading comprehension."

Ohh, look at how smart you are! You report the LV breakdown, I reported the RV breakdown. +5 vs +6. I'm sure that 1% difference accounts for why McFail is down 9 points!!!! That totally makes sense!!! You've got me with logic!

Q.E.D.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:50 PM (h5C3f)

152 On the golden calf's half hour ad, a simple question: Will anyone watch it?

Seriously, isn't the average political ad a good excuse to visit the smallest room of your house? Why would anyone sit on their couch and listen to Obama for half an hour? 3 networks don't make for a captive audience on broadcast (I'm sure I can find a Quantum Leap rerun if I had to). Would anyone with cable/satellite bother or just watch the highlights on Fox later?

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 02:51 PM (QHtlg)

153 I've counted at least three different trolls on this thread alone. That has got to be some sort of record.
You would think that ifan election winwere inevitable, they wouldn't need to spend all this time telling their ideological enemies things were inevitable. They'd just go and enjoy their inevitable win.
Very telling, it is.

Posted by: Lee at October 22, 2008 02:51 PM (TxTIh)

154 Seattle's not a troll, but he has been away for a bit. That he feels the need to drop by now is what those pollster folks call "an indicator".

Posted by: Dave in Texas at October 22, 2008 02:53 PM (eiOZw)

155 If anyone respected my opinion, I wouldn't need to spend my time trolling this place in order to be heard.

Posted by: diderot's dog at October 22, 2008 02:53 PM (nrD02)

156 If Obama is tied among Nascar fans, I'm Dale Earnhardt.


Posted by: Dr. Remulak at October 22, 2008 02:53 PM (YmPwQ)

157 Anyone nervous that Obama's half hour ads, to be timed right before election day, might sway people who haven't made up their minds? I'm really just wondering. A half hour is a long time on the air and you know he's going to try to look all presidential.
Are you kidding me? Any undecideds left are mostly American Idol mouthbreathers who have already got to be sick to death of political ads, especially if they live in a battleground state. And they're going to voluntarily watch a 30-minute political ad? Hell, they'll probably be annoyed with Obama for interrupting their regularly scheduled programming.

Posted by: Jim62sch at October 22, 2008 02:53 PM (X4hru)

158 Schumer must be drunk. He just called Martha, Michelle. Dork.

Posted by: incognito(yes,imachick) at October 22, 2008 02:53 PM (Rpam5)

159 Clinton never beat 49% on election day
And the man had HUGE swaths of support across all ethnic and class lines
If you lefty idiots think Barack Hussein Obama is going to pull 53% while McCain pulls under 40%, your smokin some of that ACORN crack again

Posted by: TMF at October 22, 2008 02:53 PM (waaUg)

160 "McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. "

Interesting.

Posted by: DM! at October 22, 2008 02:54 PM (6Ewgm)

161 Fair enough. Good point Dave.

Posted by: Lee at October 22, 2008 02:54 PM (TxTIh)

162 Remember too folks that Fox had Kerry winning the 04 election in their final poll.

Posted by: Jay at October 22, 2008 02:55 PM (efvZp)

163 "But if you choose to believe polls that have 8 to 10 to 14 point gaps, you're deluding yourself."

Of the last 20 polls on pollster for the US, 8 of them have leads of 8+ (that is 40% if you do the math. i did it for you.)

15 have leads of 5+ (that's 75%, for you right-wingers out there)

I'm glad you guys are not deluding yourself by believing the 5% of polls that has your guy neck and neck.

(I should point out that margin of error for polls is calculating using the 95% CI, which is the confidence interval that the result of the poll was NOT by chance. which means by definition, 1/20 polls will be an outlier with a completely inaccurate result, which is 5%. But that 's only if you believe this thing called "math" or "statistics" or "science" or "reason.")


http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:55 PM (h5C3f)

164 Ohh, look at how smart you are! You report the LV breakdown, I reported
the RV breakdown. +5 vs +6. I'm sure that 1% difference accounts for
why McFail is down 9 points!!!! That totally makes sense!!! You've got
me with logic!
Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:50 PM (h5C3f)


Good heavens, you're a feisty little minx, aren't you?



This is what you typed: Dems 36%, Repubs 31%



The numbers are actually:

LV: 43%D, 37%R = R-6
RV: 43%D, 36%R = R-7

The numbers you reported don't actually exist.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:55 PM (R8+nJ)

165 I woke up this morning to the clock radio announcing, "Obama up by double digits, independents are flocking to Obama, Republicans are deserting McCain, "I am a Republican and for the first time ever I am voting Democrat"".
Wife turned it off before I could get the hammer.
Bullshit.

Posted by: Javems at October 22, 2008 02:56 PM (hq71Y)

166 Of the last 20 polls on pollster for the US, 8 of them have leads of 8+ (that is 40% if you do the math. i did it for you.)

Gaps in party affiliation, Einstein.

Guys, can we keep this one? He's fun.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 02:57 PM (R8+nJ)

167 Puck the folls.
The dynamic in this election is the PUMAs and Joe the Plumbers (heirs to the Reagan Democrats) vs. the fraudulent Acorn votes.

Posted by: the real joe at October 22, 2008 02:57 PM (NJ/RA)

168 "You would think that ifan election winwere inevitable, they wouldn't
need to spend all this time telling their ideological enemies things
were inevitable. They'd just go and enjoy their inevitable win."

Conservatives aren't the only ones who enjoy schadenfreude. I'm savoring every second until 2016. I'm sure you guys will have someone ready by then.

Also, the only thing in doubt is >60 or not in the senate. Don't think I won't come back when that happens.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 02:57 PM (h5C3f)

169 which of these poll results is not like the other?

My suspicions are confirmed. DW watches Sesame Street.

Posted by: incognito(yes,imachick) at October 22, 2008 02:58 PM (Rpam5)

170 Axelrod's astroturfing asshats (Hey! The Triple A's!) will probably make their way over at some point.

Concerned Christians and lifelong Republicans telling us of the virtue of Obama will no doubt make their appearances.

Posted by: Jay at October 22, 2008 02:59 PM (efvZp)

171 This poll proves why ACORN is getting the illegal fraudulent unregistered vote drive out for Teh Obamessiah. The Obamabots know the real numbers are closer than they can allow for a victory. So the numbers will have to be "adjusted" at the polling places to reflect the "true" narrative of Hope and Change.

Posted by: exdem13 at October 22, 2008 02:59 PM (nQ6xk)

172 "Guys, can we keep this one? He's fun."

Hey thanks! I like it here too. As much as we fundamentally disagree with you guys I sort of like your passion. It feels all warm and fuzzy like with Barack and John at the Al Smith dinner.

All in good fun.

Speaking of which, have you seen the new collections at Neiman Marcus???

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:00 PM (h5C3f)

173 "My suspicions are confirmed. DW watches Sesame Street."

Are you talking shit about Sesame Street? Because I'm pretty sure that's elitist.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:01 PM (h5C3f)

174 If there is anyone thinking of staying home and not voting, watch
this



obama said:

"In the interest of full disclosure, I have to let you know that in
2016, I'll be wrapping up my second term as president."


http://tinyurl.com/5cckl7



How does eight years or even maybe a third term grab
you?.



Posted by: Ron. at October 22, 2008 03:03 PM (AmcKL)

175 My suspicions are confirmed. DW watches Sesame Street.

I watch Sesame Street.

Under duress. My kid likes it.

I want to chop up Elmo with hedge trimmers.

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 03:03 PM (R8+nJ)

176 ...and crush their dreams of a progrom of the injustice of 'social justice.'

I'm not sure if you meant "program" or "pogrom," but I'm certain the Obastard Dynasty is looking forward to a program of pogroms.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 22, 2008 03:04 PM (AZGON)

177 "pps. All I want is to see Chris Matthews cry like a spoiled little girl who didn't get the pony for Christmas!"

I want to see Kutie Katie covered from head-to-toe in black (like Flat Fatima) and Keefer catatonic with rage.

Posted by: Barry Obamuh at October 22, 2008 03:04 PM (UlUtt)

178 "Gaps in party affiliation, Einstein."

Any polls that you guys like besides the AP one? Just askin'.

Also have you guys heard of occam's razor? Riddle me this. Is it more likely that every pollster in america (with the exception of the holy AP-gfk polling agency, of course) is wrong about party affiliation, or YOU GUYS?

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:05 PM (h5C3f)

179 dw, savor every moment from now until 2024. I know some folks like you and I know you just love the sound of Sarah Palin's voice.

As for coming back, I hope you're here all day on the 4th, particularly during the hour that CNN pretends Obama won.

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 03:05 PM (QHtlg)

180 Hey obammasmomma, check with Jake LaMottaabout dipping your balls in ice water...

Posted by: scrood at October 22, 2008 03:06 PM (1dOyI)

181 I want to chop up Elmo with hedge trimmers.
Using a weed eater is more fun - slower and more tortuous. I think I will use a weed eater on my next hobo.

Posted by: Jim62sch at October 22, 2008 03:06 PM (zYagu)

182 What's far more likely is that pollsters who'd like to influence outcomes also realize as the date draws nigh their reputations (and livelihood) are on the line.
Not like it hasn't happened before.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at October 22, 2008 03:07 PM (eiOZw)

183 Thanks, jimstch. I really was wondering about those eleventh hour mega ads and who would be swayed. Did Obama really buy up all the air time in battleground states so that McCain can't purchase any ad time? Someone said that in another thread yesterday after hearing it on Mark Levin's program. Is there any truth to that?

Posted by: Sassypants at October 22, 2008 03:07 PM (YTo5g)

184 >>Guys, can we keep this one? He's fun.

I can totally picture DW is a cage, snarling and growling, while Slubby pokes him with a stick, and pulls his tail.

No Slub, we don't keep feral creatures as pets.

Posted by: Tushar at October 22, 2008 03:09 PM (PTWes)

185 DW probably firmly believes that the financial mess is due to deregulation and not Dodd or Frank or Raines. They are deluded so why try and reason with them?

No one here says they believe this poll means anything other than Obama does not have it in the bag. DW, being a good leftist, is still fighting the good fight to convince us that only 80% of us will vote for McCain, the military like Obama, etc etc.

There is slippage going on in Barry's camp. The leftism of Barry is becoming apparent. Oil is dropping. Biden has made national security an issue. The PUMAs are speaking.

Posted by: Bruce in SoCal at October 22, 2008 03:09 PM (J6hTO)

186 But seriously I have a real question for you guys. Have you seen this picture of Sarah wearing donkeys?

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs /stumper/archive/2008/10/21/ in-which-sarah-palin-displays-the-latest-in-donkey-fashion.aspx

What is her deal? I mean for real, for real. Like really is she serious? This is a serious question; the snarky bit is below.

Snark begins:
Are we resorting to reverse psychology now? At least that would be a coherent strategy for a change.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:10 PM (h5C3f)

187 Awww, not Elmo! Now, Barney, he's a different story.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 03:11 PM (Rpam5)

188 Well we know the election is close because the lefties are really out hitting the Conservative blogs trying to suppress excitement. Seeing all the lefties here confirms my gut reaction that the election is close.

The election is close and McCain is going to win!

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 03:12 PM (HAdov)

189 dw, it is far more likely that the legacy (dying) media has covered up every Obama embarassment since Wright (and that coverage was the last gasp of ABC's support for Hillary) and that the 'professional' pollsters are giving the media the results that they paid for. But hey, if you want to be the last guy praising the emporer for his fashion sens, don't let us stop you.

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 03:12 PM (QHtlg)

190 "I can totally picture DW is a cage, snarling and growling, while Slubby pokes him with a stick, and pulls his tail."

Actually, I'm a doctor! I'm trying to save health care for my patients! In between cases I like to give back to the less fortunate, like those who are severely impoverished in the reason, hope, and morale department.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:12 PM (h5C3f)

191 That's the thing about the Half Hour Obama Hour - the only people tuning in will be O-bots. Unless the word gets out that that's when he's gonna dump Biden for Hillary or throw cream pies at Barney Frank or something.

Posted by: Ian S. at October 22, 2008 03:13 PM (p05LM)

192 "dw, it is far more likely that the legacy (dying) media has covered up
every Obama embarassment since Wright (and that coverage was the last
gasp of ABC's support for Hillary) and that the 'professional'
pollsters are giving the media the results that they paid for."

It looks like the polling conspiracy against republicans suddenly started in the year 2008.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ polling_trends_in_2008_vs_04_a.php

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:15 PM (h5C3f)

193 DW - give me a break, you are not a doctor (unless you are talking about having a Ph.D. in bullshit). Most doctors are out there working - unless you are 1) retired, 2) fired

Posted by: IC at October 22, 2008 03:15 PM (jZNCU)

194 Obama is in trouble now. In past elections ... the Democrat was consistently "up" in the polls until the day of the election ... when the Republican's numbers "just all of a sudden" made a significant correction. This can be interpreted to mean that the Republican's numbers were "understated" throughout and the pollers made a election-eve correction in order to end up with numbers closer to what the actual vote would be.

Scientifically, the Democrat in the contest can COUNT ON the fact that his numbers are overstated. This is not even arguable given the history of the polls and it makes one wonder why all the overstatement goes to the Democrats.

Scientifically, the Republican in the contest can COUNT ON the fact that his numbers are understated.

So if we see numbers like "Obama up by 6" on the eve of the election - well that shouldn't make Republicans pessimistic because ... LOL ... we have damned sure won elections when the Democrat was up by that much.

More important than the polls are what the candidates are doing. PENNSYLVANIA ... 21 electoral votes ... was a BLUE state for Kerry in 2004. McCain is making a run on this Blue state and Ed Rendell, Democratic governor is sweating bullets - issuing a call to both Obama and the Clintons to come back to the state.

Additionally, McCain's "drive-by" media coverage is overwhelmingly negative. If this race was "over" these idiots would relax a bit so they don't look like paid shills for Obama (which is what they are anyway). However, the drive-bys are working overtime to dish mud on McCain while exhaulting "The One".

This, more than anything else, should tell you that this is a close race. The polls are all over the place ... 10 points up for Obama here ... within the margin there.

If these polls are making conservatives scared - good! I believe that the media is trying to crush our spirits but I think it will have the opposite effect. Conservatives are going to make a showing at the polls for McCain this year because they are scared shitless they are about to lose the constitution they inherited from their forefathers.

Posted by: HondaV65 at October 22, 2008 03:15 PM (9vlDt)

195 I got an Obama e-mail saying to supporters to remember that Gore was double digit lead at this time.
The Obama people aren't stupid.

Posted by: Rightwingsparkle at October 22, 2008 03:15 PM (jcH8M)

196 "Seeing all the lefties here confirms my gut reaction that the election is close."

And seeing all of you flail about confirms my gut reaction that you guys are scared like you have never been scared before.

But don't take my word for it:

"13 days before the election, the McCain campaign has decided to spend
several hundred thousands dollars on a last-minute television buy in
the state of Indiana.

This is the first time in a month that the campaign has spent its own money on television in the Hoosier state.

...

President Bush won Indiana by 21 points in 2004."

Playing defense, much, guys?

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/ archives/2008/10/mccain_campaign_buys_air_time.php

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:19 PM (h5C3f)

197
Remember, polls go up, polls go down.-Just like my pecker.

I was thinking, O may motivate the R base to the point that we actually gain seats this year. I doubt it but you never know. Did the media foresee the Republican Revolution under Newt?

I am thinking Matheson in Utah may be threatened, the anti-O sentiment in every area outside of SLC is mighty strong...MIGHTY fucking strong and motivated this election.

Should be interesting.

Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 03:19 PM (27iEn)

198 dw must think work is a three-letter word.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 03:20 PM (Rpam5)

199 DW a doctor? Yeah, sure.

Posted by: bluejade at October 22, 2008 03:20 PM (DjMXQ)

200 Mwahaha, somebody's earning his Axelrod money today.

Posted by: someone at October 22, 2008 03:21 PM (zHoxL)

201 Playing defense, much, guys?

Of course we're playing defense. The economy is souring, we have an unpopular president from our party, two wars and a media headwind like we've never seen. Most of us are aware this isn't a GOP-friendly climate. We're running a cranky old guy versus senator hopenchange.

And the race is still close.

Who should really be nervous here?

Posted by: Slublog at October 22, 2008 03:23 PM (R8+nJ)

202 "I got an Obama e-mail saying to supporters to remember that Gore was double digit lead at this time.

The Obama people aren't stupid. "
Actually, if you look at this thing I referred to earlier, which we on the left call "facts," or "history," or "math" you'll see that at 2 weeks out in 2000, Gore was BEHIND by 3 points in the pollster average. NOT double digits AHEAD. Kerry was also BEHIND by 2 points.

http://www.pollster.com/ blogs/polling_trends_in_2008_vs_04_a.php

Barack HUSSEIN Obama... well that's a discussion we've been having, so I'll just conceded that ALL THE OTHER POLLS ARE BIASED AND ITS A CONSPIRACY AND THE AP-GFK ONE IS CORRECT, and barack is only ahead by 1. Sounds good to me.

But you're right, the Obama people are not stupid.

Just sayin'

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:24 PM (h5C3f)

203 "DW a doctor? Yeah, sure."

"Mwahaha, somebody's earning his Axelrod money today."

Yes, it's true, there are some people in the democratic party who do work. I know it hurts me every time some wingnut says to me "get a job" and I think in my heart of hearts, hey! I spent 5 years in residency to get this job, that hurts my feelings.

But you're right, I do wish I could get some axelrod money, but it's all IN YOUR TEEVEEZ, OUTSPENDING YOUR DOODZ 4 TO 1!

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:27 PM (h5C3f)

204 I am thinking Matheson in Utah may be threatened, the anti-O sentiment
in every area outside of SLC is mighty strong...MIGHTY fucking strong
and motivated this election.

^^Here in Louisiana, 100% of Repubicans are running ads saying basically one thing ... "My Opponent is a Barack Obama Supporter". Steve Scalise is punctuating his ads with clips of Rev. Wright's "God Damn America!" speech. So, without doubt ,.. here in the South Obama is seen as a negative and a stench that no blue dog democrat want's to be sprayed with.

Not much they can do about it though.

Posted by: HondaV65 at October 22, 2008 03:28 PM (9vlDt)

205 @dw

Like I said your presence here means Obama is in trouble. Since there are no more votes available for Obama, his last hope is to send his trolls to Conservative sites to try and suppress Republican turnout.

This is very good news. Obama has peaked, is now slipping and his last remaining hope is voter suppression.

More proof along with the polls that Obama is heading towards a loss.

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 03:29 PM (HAdov)

206 "Remember, polls go up, polls go down.-Just like my pecker."

Again, referring to evidence:

http://www.pollster.com/ blogs/polling_trends_in_2008_vs_04_a.php

Not a whole lot of movement in late October, is there?

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:29 PM (h5C3f)

207 After reading all the polls for months, I think it's clear that Bob Barr is probably running away with this thing.

Posted by: SalvucciFumbles at October 22, 2008 03:30 PM (yE+v+)

208 My doc is voting for McCain because he doesn't want healthcare to be in the hands of the government.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 03:30 PM (Rpam5)

209 "Like I said your presence here means Obama is in trouble. Since there
are no more votes available for Obama, his last hope is to send his
trolls to Conservative sites to try and suppress Republican turnout.This is very good news. Obama has peaked, is now slipping and his last remaining hope is voter suppression.More proof along with the polls that Obama is heading towards a loss."

Yay! I've single handedly brought down Obama's campaign! Yay!

I'm also living proof! I'm like a fossil, except those are biased too, aren't they!? Biased toward reality, I mean.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:30 PM (h5C3f)

210 >>President Bush won Indiana by 21 points in 2004."

>>Playing defense, much, guys?

DW, unfortunately, the Daley-Axelrod Chicago machine has tentacles in North-West Indiana, and must be countered with legitimate voters

Posted by: Tushar at October 22, 2008 03:32 PM (PTWes)

211 Now I definitely know Obama is in trouble, coz all his punk ass trolls are out in full force. Hey, DW - if you really want to help Obama, better just stay out of conservative blogs...on second thoughts, stick around, you do have some entertainment value (I am still laughing about the doctor thing..).

Posted by: IC at October 22, 2008 03:33 PM (jZNCU)

212 "My doc is voting for McCain because he doesn't want healthcare to be in the hands of the government."

I teach at teaching hospital. If you think this generation of doctors is turning against the republicans, wait until you see the next.

And for your information, health care already is in the hands of the government. I'm not sure if your doc has heard of medicare, medicaid, the FDA. I know these are obscure terms but he or she probably should've learned about them in school.

Also I made sure to write "he or she" just to rub it in.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:34 PM (h5C3f)

213 "(I am still laughing about the doctor thing..)."

I just might be your doctor. Who knows?

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:35 PM (h5C3f)

214 It does seem to correlate:
If Obama slips in a poll the more lefty trolls one sees on various righty sites.
The Ozombies must be worried about any cracks in their illusions of Obama sweeping the nation.
Fun to see.

Posted by: ArandomPerson at October 22, 2008 03:36 PM (MSMPS)

215 So, what kind of Doctor are you, DW?

Posted by: Tushar at October 22, 2008 03:36 PM (PTWes)

216 I doubt it. My doctor is intelligent.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 03:36 PM (Rpam5)

217 But you're right, I do wish I could get some axelrod money, but it's all IN YOUR TEEVEEZ, OUTSPENDING YOUR DOODZ 4 TO 1

Yeah, that looks like something a college graduate would write. Thanks for playing.

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 03:38 PM (QHtlg)

218 "Now I definitely know Obama is in trouble, coz all his punk ass trolls
are out in full force. Hey, DW - if you really want to help Obama,
better just stay out of conservative blogs...on second thoughts, stick
around, you do have some entertainment value"

It's true, normally I would be canvassing in my free time, volunteering for the ol' campaign. In fact I did that during the PA primary (yes, I live in PA), every day I was not working (and by that I mean smoking reefer, obviously).

But you know, that was back when we had a real opponent, someone who was in fact blowing us out in PA, not someone who is down 10-15 points. (Were the polls biased back when Hillary was around?)

So this is what I do in my off days now. Starting now. Keep it coming guys. We're just getting warmed up!

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:39 PM (h5C3f)

219 "Yeah, that looks like something a college graduate would write. Thanks for playing."

Yes, in fact, you do have to go to college to go to medical school. Little known fact.

And, in fact, it's okay for doctors to be up on lolcatz and other internet memes. In fact, i believe a certain ACE also likes to show off his internet relevancy.

I guess my question is, how do you know I'm not actually ace, trying to work up his base?

I guess we'll never know.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:41 PM (h5C3f)

220 Obi Wan, "Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the 'McCain pulls even or goes ahead' poll."
heh, heh.

Posted by: ArandomPerson at October 22, 2008 03:42 PM (MSMPS)

221 >>I guess my question is, how do you know I'm not actually ace, trying to work up his base?

A dozen comments and no hobo-bashing? You couldn't be Ace.

Posted by: Tushar at October 22, 2008 03:43 PM (PTWes)

222 I am a neurologist. Before you point out that most neurology programs have a 4 year residency, I will point out that there are many combo programs, research requirements etc, that vary by program.

Yay! But say again how I'm not really a doctor. That hurts my feelings soooo much. Ow! Stop it!

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:44 PM (h5C3f)

223 "A dozen comments and no hobo-bashing? You couldn't be Ace."

well-played

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:44 PM (h5C3f)

224 "Of course, Obama probably doesn't have a DUI in his closet, but still."

Believe me, Obama has 1000x more in his closet than Bush.

Posted by: FloofyParisParamus at October 22, 2008 03:46 PM (jGNc3)

225 Are there any other sites you would recommend trolling?

I've thought about redstate and hotair, but they just don't have the, um, spirit, that you guys do.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:49 PM (h5C3f)

226 Hey, dickwad, I'm a rocket scientist.

See, we can be whatever we want to be when hiding behind a monitor.

You might want to go back to campaigning for That One in PA. Looks like he's slippin'.

Posted by: incognito at October 22, 2008 03:49 PM (Rpam5)

227 how timely! here is a discussion of likely voter models and affiliations. it looks like nate silver at 538 also thinks some of these polls are garbage. but maybe not the ones you guys are hoping for....

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/ some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:50 PM (h5C3f)

228 "Yeah, that looks like something a college graduate would write. Thanks for playing."

Yes, in fact, you do have to go to college to go to medical school. Little known fact.

dw, you is so smart. S-M-R-T. You got the joke.

I think I can safely presume that ace wouldn't be arguing against a post he himself put up. Particularly when the only effect pursued is demoralization of us pro-American Americans. He also wouldn't be egging us into paranoid delusions about his intentions, either. The fact that such a suggestion would make sense to you marks you as one of the tinfoil hat Kos crowd. I suggest you ask your mom to loan you some money to visit your psychiatrist.

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2008 03:51 PM (QHtlg)

229 Neurology? Cool!

Working for a hospital or private practise? The reason I ask is, I am curious whether you sign the front or back of a paycheck.

Posted by: Tushar at October 22, 2008 03:51 PM (PTWes)

230 "You might want to go back to campaigning for That One in PA. Looks like he's slippin'."

Nope.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:51 PM (h5C3f)

231 DW-Neurologists are pretty nutty by nature, am I right or am I right?

some of the strangest docs I have ever encountered are neurologists.

Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 03:52 PM (27iEn)

232 dw,
do you wear a bowtie?

Posted by: spypeach at October 22, 2008 03:53 PM (QwWKI)

233 "Working for a hospital or private practise? The reason I ask is, I am curious whether you sign the front or back of a paycheck."

Ha! I'm at a teaching hospital, as I said earlier.

Ergo I don't get paid much.

Well, almost enough to have my taxes raised by Barack Obama, but not quite.

If I were to make chair, then it would be a different story, wouldn't it?

But I still wouldn't be voting for your dude.

And yeah, neurology is elitist. Only elitists get strokes. Deal with it.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:54 PM (h5C3f)

234 "do you wear a bowtie?"

are you kidding? i'm an obamabot. i always thought that was exclusively an old school attending, country club doctor kind of thing.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:54 PM (h5C3f)

235 Every doctor I know supports McCain. EVERY ONE
Oh, I suppose there are a few academic types who dont actually treat patients, or free clinic employees, or government workers, but the ones in the private sector- the good ones, with actual skills and patients and thriving practices-
McCain.
All-Of-Them.

Posted by: TMF at October 22, 2008 03:55 PM (waaUg)

236 "DW-Neurologists are pretty nutty by nature, am I right or am I right?

some of the strangest docs I have ever encountered are neurologists."

Are you sure you're not thinking of psychiatrists? Neurologist are mainly big nerds. Present company excluded, obviously.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 03:55 PM (h5C3f)

237 OK. I am ready to get my tin-foil hat out. Why is it any time McCain pulls close in the polls there is a huge fall in the Dow? Shut up Dems. It's not because the markets trust your socialist more. It almost, I know, feels engineered.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 03:55 PM (e2mBS)

238 dw,

You mean nate silver or poblano from Daily Kos? Yea.. he has no bias either.

Posted by: IreneFingIrene at October 22, 2008 03:56 PM (lhxhu)

239 The IBD/TIPP shows a shrinking Obama lead, too.
http://tinyurl.com/5daqbc

Posted by: Steve the Pirate at October 22, 2008 03:56 PM (W54Uh)

240 Kind of like the military supporting McCain like 9 to 1
When it counts in a profession- they go with the candidate with character.

Posted by: TMF at October 22, 2008 03:57 PM (waaUg)

241 DW
only nerds perform EMGs

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 03:57 PM (e2mBS)

242
dw,
I am thinking of neurologists. You run a sleep lab?
Funny you mention Psych. I was actually thinking of posting that the strangest people in the medical industry I have ever encountered are either psychiatrists or neurologists.

Why are so many oddballs attracted to your specialty? I mean no disrespect but you seem like an open kind of guy and a good person to ask about this oddity.

Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 03:59 PM (27iEn)

243 For PA alone the RCP average has dropped from OCt 15 to today from 14% to 11.4% (2.6 points or 18.6% drop).
and that uses the less frequent and less reliable state polls.
Hmmm, yet another false statement by DW.
As for McCain supporters being silly for not agreeing that Obama has won etc.; if Obama effectivly has won it already, why not let the McCain supporters delude themselves thinking otherwise so your mockery post-election would be that much sweeter?
Oh right, because you (DW, DD, etc.) care so much for your fellow humans, I bet!

Posted by: ArandomPerson at October 22, 2008 04:00 PM (MSMPS)

244 "Every doctor I know supports McCain. EVERY ONE

Oh, I suppose there are a few academic types who dont actually treat
patients, or free clinic employees, or government workers, but the ones
in the private sector- the good ones, with actual skills and patients
and thriving practices-

McCain.

All-Of-Them."
Did your poll use likely voters or registered voters? Did you correct for a republican-leaning party affiliation? Because otherwise your poll is biased by acenut criteria.
Ah, to be young again. To think that private practice is where good care actually happens. I urge you to find a family friend, niece, nephew, anyone who works (or at some point did work) at an academic hospital or teaching hospital, where they would send their parents if they got sick. Just try it. You might not like the answer you get.


Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:00 PM (h5C3f)

245 Academic and teaching hospitals are good only to the extent that they have well compensated doctors who spend most of their time inprivate practices affiliated with them with operating privileges, call schedules, etc.
Without those doctors, those hospitals are worthless
Ah to be a complete ignoramus

Posted by: TMF at October 22, 2008 04:03 PM (waaUg)

246
what generic wingnut 4232142 said:"For PA alone the RCP average has dropped from OCt 15 to today from 14% to 11.4% (2.6 points or 18.6% drop).
and that uses the less frequent and less reliable state polls.
Hmmm, yet another false statement by DW."
what i said:
"But you know, that was back when we had a real opponent, someone who
was in fact blowing us out in PA, not someone who is down 10-15 points."
also, see if you can spot the trend in the pollster.com aggregate of PA:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php




Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:03 PM (h5C3f)

247 DW

Every group has outliers. I would say 90% of M.D.'s I know are McCain by default. But there are two wacky Neurologist, you know the functional type, that are left of Obama.

Academic hospitals in my experience means substandard care given by resident- so who cares about their opinion.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 04:06 PM (e2mBS)

248 232 You might want to go back to campaigning for That One in PA. Looks like he's slippin'."Nope.````````````````````````
Naw DW, what you wrote was above: So that was false since 11 odd is less than 14.

Posted by: ArandomPerson at October 22, 2008 04:06 PM (MSMPS)

249 If a family member was sick- truly sick, not just ER sick (most malpractice, missed diagnosesand mistakes occur in ERs)- Id get them into a private practice with a well compensated specialist.
And I sure as fuck wouldnt send them to your slacker ass

Posted by: TMF at October 22, 2008 04:07 PM (waaUg)

250 DW,

Are you affiliated with a University or at the main teaching hospital of a Univeristy?

Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 04:08 PM (27iEn)

251 "Academic and teaching hospitals are good only to the extent that they
have well compensated doctors who spend most of their time inprivate
practices affiliated with them with operating privileges, call
schedules, etc."

Actually, many academic hospitals have very strict regulations about how much private practice work you can do, if at all. The money comes not from patient care (sadly, this is true) but from money-making procedures (think colonsocopy) and research dollars (think many, many digits following a dollar sign).

I would say that academic hospitals are better because of resources (having enough dialysis machines, experimental study trials, high nurse ratio) but also because the constant teaching creates a system of checks and balances. Attending with fellow. Fellow with resident. Resident with med students. And pharmacist and nurses thrown in. All making sure that the other person is doing the right thing.

Additionally, ask your private practice doctor to name a single study published in the last issue of JAMA or the journal of whatever field he's in. Not even what the study was about, just like a headline or something. If he's a family doc, ask him what he thinks about the developments that strict glycemic control in diabetics actually leads to higher mortality in multiple studies recently published. Just give it a shot. It will make you feel at ease.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:09 PM (h5C3f)

252 He/she's as much of a doctor as I am.

The doctors around here are all on the golf course on Wednesday afternoons.


Posted by: Dr. Remulak at October 22, 2008 04:10 PM (YmPwQ)

253 Oh, and try Right Wing News, they only ban trolls after months of complaining from regulars.


Posted by: Dr. Remulak at October 22, 2008 04:12 PM (YmPwQ)

254 DW

Since your 253 statement has the sound of an authoritative statement with facts, I will return your serve.

The most egregious errors I have ever witnessed were at University medical centers. Pt's with uncal herniations not noticed for hours. Residents, well we all have to learn somewhere.

As to your last statement, are you doubting metabolic syndrome?

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 04:15 PM (e2mBS)

255 "If a family member was sick- truly sick, not just ER sick (most
malpractice, missed diagnosesand mistakes occur in ERs)- Id get them
into a private practice with a well compensated specialist."

Take a poll of 1000 oncologists, ask them where they would take their patients if they could only send them 1 place. I'm pretty sure MSKCC and MD anderson would account for more than 90%.

I'm pretty sure Joe the fancy private doctor is not where they'd send them. The reason for this is that disease often have complications that extend beyond the expertise of a single private practice, or a single specialist that you hire. You need nutrition specialists, wound care specialists, hospice, kidney docs, lung docs, psych docs, surgeons of all types, not to mention a lab on site with pathologists to read back your tissue biopsy with any kind of accuracy. The only places that can achieve this are large academic centers.

Just sayin.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:16 PM (h5C3f)

256
dw,
Not all academic centers are equal and if you are in academics you know that it is also a refuge for the lazy. Not saying all, but many in academics stay because they enjoy the pace, the respect, the lack of workload. Many academicians, if they try, have a very hard if not impossible time transitioning into private practice, they are too slow and too arrogant to change.

Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 04:17 PM (27iEn)

257 New Mexico is also almost surely gone, which means he has to hold every other 2004 state, unless he can flip New Hampshire.

Posted by: Knemon at October 22, 2008 04:17 PM (KfWko)

258 but it's all IN YOUR TEEVEEZ, OUTSPENDING YOUR DOODZ 4 TO 1!

According to AP today, that is money being well spent.

Yet another reason why I don't want a Democrat administration. 4 times the cost and almost no discernible result.

Posted by: wiserbud at October 22, 2008 04:19 PM (wWwJR)

259 DW

got a link for you.

http://tinylink.com/?F289NlymaR

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 04:20 PM (e2mBS)

260 The most egregious errors I have ever witnessed were at University
medical centers. Pt's with uncal herniations not noticed for hours.
Residents, well we all have to learn somewhere.


Yes, it's true. Residents do have to learn. In fact, every doctor in america was at one point a resident. That's how we learn. Your doctor was at one point a bumbling med student, and then a slightly less bumbling resident, also.

And as to your anecdotal evidence, I'm sure it's absolutely true. But again ask some loved one who has seen both sides which they would send their loved one to. Is it possible that *gasp* mistakes happen at non-university hospitals too? In fact, could it happen more often? and hm... how come the very sickets patients are constantly being airlifted by helicopter or jet to these bad, evil university hospitals from all those great mom and pop hospitals? (not that they're not good doctors or aren't trying, but the quality of care just is not there)

you know it's a running joke that we spend more time cleaning up for the complications and disasters incurred at outside hospitals (that's the lingo) than we do for our local patients, and it's not far from the truth




As to your last statement, are you doubting metabolic syndrome?

This doesn't begin to sense. Why would you ask if I was doubting metabolic syndrome?

1) Metabolic syndrome is on a continuum of diseases that have at their heart some component of insulin resistance/glucose intolerance. It is 100% real.

2) Diabetes has long been thought to be directly related to high sugar levels. Better glycemic control = better control, right? Except in the last 6-9 months, we have had a ton of good research out of those "elitist ivy league" places that says our diabetes patients are actually dying more when you put them on strict glycemic control

3) Basically I raised the point that endocrinologists are saying "maybe that's not the right treatment." sort of like saying "maybe we don't need leeches to bleed people." And your response to that was "are you saying the bubonic plague isn't real?"

But yeah, what you said.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:26 PM (h5C3f)

261 Despite the primaries this year, the state of Iowa as a whole is a marvelous place. Unfortunately, it containsmunicipalities called the Quad Cities, sullied by proximity to Illinois, and Des Moines, a lovely city with a marked and inexplicableleftward bent. Suspect some of it is that McCain isn't resonating with the agricultural set being something of a faux 'Pub. Clearly, this doesn't represent a sample but there were literally scores of Bush/Cheney '04 yard signs displayed everywhere during that election. Now, we have the only McCain/Palin sign in the neighborhood which is probably60 to 70% 'Pub and only one other on the 4-mile stretch of highway separating me from the interstate. My husband believes locals are fearful of vandalism by crazed BO adherents. Maybe so.
Also, to clarify, I like it here but you wouldn't at all. It's too cold, too hot, there's nothing to do and it's flat as a board. Whenever you hit I80, 35 or 29, just keep on going. There's nothing to see.

Posted by: iowavette at October 22, 2008 04:27 PM (0p4xh)

262 Medical students are overwhelmingly liberal. They generally have been on government-supported student aid and/or sponging off of their parents for about 8 years by the time they graduate. After graduation, as residents, they make next to nothing, plus they are resentful that all of their old college firends (none of whom were as smart as _they_ were) are out making bank as lawyers.
Once they get a real job, a marriage, and a kid or two, they realize that they worked their asses off to get where they are and they sure as hell don't feel like "spearding the wealth".
Exceptions can be found in areas that are heavily government-sponsored, like academic centers, VAs, and non-profit research.

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 04:28 PM (Hj9yW)

263 Not all academic centers are equal and if you are in academics you know
that it is also a refuge for the lazy. Not saying all, but many in
academics stay because they enjoy the pace, the respect, the lack of
workload. Many academicians, if they try, have a very hard if not
impossible time transitioning into private practice, they are too slow
and too arrogant to change.

Are you on crack? Honestly, go ask a doctor to name how many colleagues they know who went from private practice to academics, and vice versa. Let me give you a hint: one is relatively common transition, and one is almost unheard of. I'll let you guess which way is which.

Also ask a med student which life (private or academic) is "kush" and which is "work everyday/see a million patients but also publish or perish/write grants/set up new studies"

But yes, your point on all centers not being equal is well taken. That sentence is actually true.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:31 PM (h5C3f)

264 Iowa City is a great town, very nice.

Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 04:31 PM (27iEn)

265 "Medical students are overwhelmingly liberal. They generally have
been on government-supported student aid and/or sponging off of their
parents for about 8 years by the time they graduate. After graduation,
as residents, they make next to nothing, plus they are resentful that
all of their old college firends (none of whom were as smart as _they_
were) are out making bank as lawyers.
Once they get a real job, a marriage, and a kid or two, they realize
that they worked their asses off to get where they are and they sure as
hell don't feel like "spearding the wealth"."
Actually, this is 95% true. The training breeds resentment and *gasp* bitterness. I would like to see a system that does not train our young student doctors to hate their job, their patients, and their lives. It's just too bad that some people have to be these docs' patients. But that would imply getting serious about reforming health care in this country.
And you know who has cut loan rates for med students making them all the more bitter (toward a certain party in particular)? A certain lame-duck president.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:34 PM (h5C3f)

266 DW,
Not on crack, I see academicians trying to get into private practice every day. When you can make twice as much on the outside and still remain involved in teaching and research, why wouldn't you? Sure you have to bust your ass but the payoff entices many to give it a try.

PP physicians, depending on the specialty, tend to shy away from hiring academicians because they can't keep up with the pace and tend to have a superior attitude. Not all, but many fit the profile.

I would say pp physicians rarely, RARELY, try to get back into a pure academic setting.

Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 04:37 PM (27iEn)

267 looky looky, fresh off the presses:

Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 46

North Carolina: Obama 51, McCain 47

Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 46

Virginia: Obama 54, McCain 44

West Virginia: McCain 53, Obama 44all those red states! those poll numbers are closing FAST! look at west virginia!

and McFail only has to win, oh i don't know, ALL of them.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/22/ new-data-obama-maintains-lead-in-several-red-states/

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:37 PM (h5C3f)

268 DW

Stand corrected on the last point. I scrolled up and re-read your post. Dyslexia and I tend to skim read. Any articles indicating another approach would be interesting.

As to why people are flying patients into teaching centers. In my experience it is one of two things. First would be by small rural hospitals who are obviously not capable of complicated sustained care. Second, gadget medicine, on the public dole university medicine gets the newest gadgets. In my opinion it is sometimes technical masturbation. Say an unresectable tumor pt needs a gamma knife procedure. I am not saying there is not a place for the university type hospitals. I am saying I have seen much superior care given in private practice hospitals. Sorry it took so long to respond, I still suck on a keyboard.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 04:41 PM (e2mBS)

269 iowavette, you forgot Johnson County, the Berkeley of the Midwest.

Plenty to do in Iowa, though, if you're capable of entertaining yourself instead of waiting for someone else to do it.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 22, 2008 04:41 PM (yG+tb)

270 Not on crack, I see academicians trying to get into private practice
every day. When you can make twice as much on the outside and still
remain involved in teaching and research, why wouldn't you? Sure you
have to bust your ass but the payoff entices many to give it a try.

Correct, you make more in private practice. That is why people often leave academics near the end of their careers. Unless of course, you wanted to have the latest experimental drugs, exciting new technologies, colleagues who are experts in their field, hell colleagues who disease are named after, and interesting patients who are flown in from 6 neighboring states.

PP
physicians, depending on the specialty, tend to shy away from hiring
academicians because they can't keep up with the pace and tend to have
a superior attitude. Not all, but many fit the profile.

This is retarded because all doctors start in some sort of academic setting. It's called residency. And if you really think that academic doctors are the ones who "can't keep up with the pace," I have a bridge in alaska to sell you. If you only knew how far people fly from across the country (and other countries) to see the top specialists at academic centers. Let me just put it this way, Dick Cheney did not go to a private practitioner for his arrhymia, and Ted Kennedy did not go to a private practioner for his brain surgery. Just sayin'

I would say pp physicians rarely, RARELY, try to get back into a pure academic setting.

Correct, it cannot really be done.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:42 PM (h5C3f)

271 Uniball

Amen to that.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 22, 2008 04:44 PM (e2mBS)

272 As to why people are flying patients into teaching centers. In my
experience it is one of two things. First would be by small rural
hospitals who are obviously not capable of complicated sustained care.
Second, gadget medicine, on the public dole university medicine gets
the newest gadgets. In my opinion it is sometimes technical
masturbation. Say an unresectable tumor pt needs a gamma knife
procedure. I am not saying there is not a place for the university type
hospitals. I am saying I have seen much superior care given in private
practice hospitals. Sorry it took so long to respond, I still suck on a
keyboard.

Actually I can agree with many of the points made here. I think that's part of it. But don't think your private doctors aren't using fancy ultrasonic scalpels.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:44 PM (h5C3f)

273 Iowa City? Nice? It's a cesspool.

After the Flood of '93, they cut back on showers and switched to organic weed as an offering to Gaia, which is why they got hammered again last summer.

Ames, OTOH, shored up the levies and tore down buildings in the flood plain, and got through this summer just fine.

...but back on topic, Gore won Iowa in 2000 by approximately the number of UIowa students who voted twice, once on campus at once at their parents' address.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 22, 2008 04:45 PM (yG+tb)

274 Okay guys, it's been fun, see ya again soon!

If we can't agree on a president, at least we can agree that Kathleen Parker, Chris Buckley, and David Brooks are total douchnozzles.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:46 PM (h5C3f)

275 dw,
You want to know what bred bitterness for me? Getting to the end of medical school and realizing that my 1st and most important job was going to be decided by an opaque system called the "national match" program (or whatever it was called). Not only was I unable to negotiate for the best wage, location, work conditions, but I had No.Other. Option.
The final indignity was that the local news was going to drop by and film the medical students getting their draeam job/dreams crushed.I said at the time that there is no way that law students would have put up with that crap, and it still seems ripe for a class action suit.
David

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 04:49 PM (Hj9yW)

276
dw,

I am not comparing residents to career academicians, that would be retarded.




Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 04:50 PM (27iEn)

277 ...and while we're talking about Iowa City and teaching hospitals, it's a four-hour drive to UI from the hospital where my parents work. People with weird and rare things get referred there, but 99% of everything can be handled just fine in local private practice. The only people who get their primary care from "teaching hospitals" are indigents who live nearby.

The local hospitals are the ones that are being bankrupted by Medicare and Medicaid and illegal aliens bringing their sniffles to the ER. BarackCare will close them permanently.

Check out Alberta and Saskatchewan--they gotta fly pregnant women into Montana or Ontario to give birth, because there's no place to do it up there.

But hey, who cares if people in Iowa or Nebraska or Colorado die? dw got cool toys!

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 22, 2008 04:56 PM (yG+tb)

278 You want to know what bred bitterness for me? Getting to the end of
medical school and realizing that my 1st and most important job was
going to be decided by an opaque system called the "national match"
program (or whatever it was called). Not only was I unable to
negotiate for the best wage, location, work conditions, but I had
No.Other. Option.
The final indignity was that the local news was going to drop by and
film the medical students getting their draeam job/dreams crushed.I
said at the time that there is no way that law students would have put
up with that crap, and it still seems ripe for a class action suit.
David
This post moved me, so I'll stick around to answer it.

Hey dude, I agree it's a pretty rough system. A lot worse than applying for medical school, right? Every year I think we should just find out in private and not make a spectacle out of it, but no one listens to me.
But to be fair, it was a lot worse in the recent past. No too long ago, it was a much more corporate system. You would go interview for general surgery or something at johns hopkins or emory or wherever. And they would offer you a spot or not right then. No time to think. You take it or we move on to someone else. No chance to mull over different places. No way to discuss it with your wife or husband or your family. Not even knowing if you would get an offer at a different place. Take it or leave it, NOW. There were NO negotiations for wages (you think a department chair or residency director cares how much you think you should make? i mean come on, people were working 100-120+ hr weeks back then! they were called residents because they ACTUALLY LIVED IN THE HOSPITAL. it was cheap cheap labor!)
In many ways our current system is pretty screwed up and scary and inhumane, but the old system was pretty awful too. And so I would say, to counter your point, that there was in fact less flexibility before the national match. But that doesn't mean I don't have sympathy feel your resentment.

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 04:56 PM (h5C3f)

279 The local hospitals are the ones that are being bankrupted by Medicare
and Medicaid and illegal aliens bringing their sniffles to the ER.
BarackCare will close them permanently.

Actually all the studies show that urban hospitals/teaching centers are the ones that are screwed by the uninsured/ER problem. Which makes intuitive sense, don't you think? Unless you have found a new study that came out in the last 10 minutes.

Of course this problem would go away (AND WE WOULD SAVE MORE MONEY) if we had universal health care.

But I know that is something that we probably can't find common ground on. So I'll leave it at that.

Until next time my conservative amigos,

DW

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 05:00 PM (h5C3f)

280 If we can't agree on a president, at least we can agree that Kathleen
Parker, Chris Buckley, and David Brooks are total douchnozzles.

Hear Hear

Posted by: Uniball at October 22, 2008 05:04 PM (27iEn)

281 Idiots
Out
Wandering
Around

Lived there. Know of what I speak. Good, conservative people (don't know about Des Moines) but addicted to those farm subsidies. And their kids can't leave the state fast enough.

Posted by: 29Victor at October 22, 2008 05:21 PM (kJVzu)

282 dw saw us again so soon!

odd that they thing this sort of thing is meaningful.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at October 22, 2008 05:26 PM (eiOZw)

283 dw,
Fair point, but when in the application process didI ever sign up for a prix fixe employment system designed to keep costs down? And that era of residential residents wasn't that long ago. A friend of mine (ENT) did his 2-month live-in-the-hospital stint as the "Debakey Resident" at Baylor College of Medicine (can't leave, mail brought in to you, occasional conjugal visits from your spouse, if you can get away with it.) in 1994.
Also, I work in a government-sponsored "universal" system, the US Army. Many aspects of care are good, and we exceed civilian centers on several metrics. As a general rule, though, the access to care gets worse outside of a medical center, and at least our local VA is even worse (VAs in medical centers, however, do tend to be good). That said, our quality would dramatically worsen if we didn't have civilian access standards to keep us honest.
A universal system will eventually end up with wage/price controls. When there is no other option, the imperative to give quality care will be less. Have you ever noticed how your customer service is crappy at the DMV? Your doctor isn't that way because you can go somewhere else. Go to a VA waiting room and see if it is more like the DMV or a private office. That's your future with universal health care. Systems where a person's compensation is independent of the quality of work inevitably tend toward the DMV. You'll get some great people working there, but they don't HAVE to be great. Generally, they will be junior to some slacker, see that they can't advance based on merit, and go to the private sector. I don't want our whole healthcare system to be like this. Think Canada without the safety valve of the US. Or think the British PHS.

Posted by: David at October 22, 2008 05:32 PM (Hj9yW)

284 i are TOO a Doctor!1!!!1111 Obama 4eveR!111!!1!1

Posted by: dw at October 22, 2008 05:36 PM (f7A+e)

285 AP did that? Its April 1st right?

Posted by: Purple Avenger at October 22, 2008 07:40 PM (OqXyp)

286 Maybe some people toyed with the idea of voting for Obama but they are now having second thoughts. "Joe the Plumber" appears to have splashed some cold water on some faces.

It will be interesting to see what the polls are showing next week right before the election.

Whatever, it is important for everybody who values the good things we have in this country to get out and vote November 4th. Vote McCain-Palin as if your life depended on it -- because it probably does. People talk about the New Deal like it was a lurch to the left -- it was nothing compared to where Obama will try to take this country.


Posted by: prairiemain at October 22, 2008 08:45 PM (uDqa7)

287 what happened to the other 13% ? i figured with ACORN out there doing such a bang up job i figured it would be at least 84-43 obama.

Posted by: e.koenig at October 22, 2008 10:40 PM (2J+Vs)

288 "So, what kind of Doctor are you, DW?"
He's the kind of doctor that has the time to write dozens of e-mails to a right-wing site in the middle of the day that include references to other polling web sites.

Posted by: Ampontan at October 22, 2008 11:29 PM (hPIeg)

289 Seattle,
Looks like the AP agrees with you.In the article they cite the Washington Post, WSJ, and CBS poll, which all have Obama in double digits.

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