1 The edifice is beginning to crumble. His support is only strong with the extreme liberal wing of his party. They will get very dirty very soon.

2 Man are they going to be surprised when a Palin-energized conservative base turns out in horrific numbers on E-Day.

3 It's interesting that Corbett got it, he's a huge Hillary! supporter and he's been banging away against Obama for months. 

4 Yep. Double digits, my ass.

5 They certainly talk about crushing spirits a lot.

You kind of get the feeling that they really, really hate us. But I know that can't be, because Obama is all about unity.

6 God Bless John Murtha. We couldn't win Penn. without him.

7

THIS STORY IS ABSOLUTELY TRUE.

I have a Pennsylvania Democratic County Party Chair in my office who confirmed - to me personally - the veracity of the poll, because he saw it "pre-leak."

 

 

8 I might add: is the best way to squash this sort of leak posting about it on a site like DKOS? I guess nobody ever accused them of being too intelligent.

9 I would absolutely believe in that internal poll. From the time that McCain & Palin are spending here, I would assume that they are seeing the same numbers.

It is very interesting in PA. In 2004, there were Kerry signs everywhere. Today, there are a few Obama signs, but there are just about as many McCain and I am in a Democrat stronghold.

There is also a lot of worry coming both from the Steel workers union and surprisingly from the Teacher's unions. Their members are not "falling in line" as they would like.

10 This explains a lot.  I begin to suspect the internals show a very different picture from the one the media is trying to paint.

11 Oh NOES!

12 Speaking as a resident of the eastern side of PA, I'm voting for McCain. I've also noticed more McCain/Palin signs in my neighborhood lately (certainly more than the number of Bush/Cheney signs four years ago). Obama could still win the state, but I wouldn't count McCain out yet.

13 Note my comment in another thread that a Republican "insider" called into the local (but XM syndicated) talk show this morning in Western PA claiming Rep internals had Pennsylvania 51-38 Mac, which I find hard to believe, but stated that the public polls were vastly oversampling Philly, which is much easier to believe. RCP averages called it +0.9% for Kerry in 2004, but Kerry had been cruising at up to +8 even the week before.

It ended up 51-49 Kerry. 15% of Pennsylvania Democrats defected to Bush. It has to be more this year. It will be more this year. Liberal bastion Philadelphia county cast just under 700k votes, which is not insurmountable by the rest of the state.

14 Labor/Trades in Philadelphia are not enthusiastic Obama supporters.  The O! Campaign knows this, and it freightens them.  Labor will account for a goodly chunk of what may in the future come to be called the "Obama Effect."  (Formerly, the Bradley Effect).

15 6 God Bless John Murtha. We couldn't win Penn. without him.
Posted by: Thomas Dewey '48 at October 21, 2008 02:47 PM (s+2rG)

LOL damn, I guess I am glad he didn't lose in 2006. LOL

16 First, as I've said before here, I've NEVER seen so many pro-McCain signs here in Chester County (outside Philly). Even in Dem yards and on Dem cars.

Second, people here are somewhat aware of what Axelrod did with the Street re-election campaign in Philly and really, really are uncomfortable with the "axelrod machine."

Unfortunately, I was making inroads with my liberal Center City pals on that front until the Palin pick, and they just despise her for some weird reason (I really cannot understand it). Hopefully they will get over that and buy a clue by the election.

Not that it will matter - as I'm sure we will have at least 100,000 fraudulent Dem votes in PA. Or maybe 100K each from Philly and Pittsburgh.

17 That is why they trotted out Colin Powell last weekend instead of this coming weekend.  To stop the redneck bleeding.  Unfortunately, it looks like it worked. 

18 Wait. If it's so close in Penn. won't they be sending in Biden with his Scranton blue collar roots? No please Axelrod, please don't send in Biden.

19

We need to get on this story as soon as possible before it spreads any further.

Really hard to say, "Ssh, keep it down," on the Internet.  Especially Kos.  I guess he's trying to organize some damage control, but still.

That guy is to the story what a cow is to a barn door.

20 Philly just needs to bring in 135% to save Obama's bacon.  Doable, alas

21 Hit 'em hard with Card Check and a double dose of Sarah!

22 >Speaking as a resident of the eastern side of PA, I'm voting for McCain. I've also noticed more McCain/Palin signs in my neighborhood lately

Me too. Norristown area.

I've notice substantially more McCain signs out here than I ever expected to see. There are more McCain/Palin signs than Obama signs in my 'hood and in the surrounding area. Plenty of Obama con Biden signs, but MORE McCain signs than Obama signs. Lots of local GOP signs plastered all over, too.

Just one man's observation. McCain's got at least 10 votes from my household, neighbors and people just within the 50 feet surrounding my house that I know of. Could be many more proportionally - we're most certainly not the only ones.

We'll see.

23 Scranton and surrounding areas may have soured on Biden once he made the reference to Katies diner during the debate. It made them realize just how out of touch he actually was with the area, but was using them to promote himself as the working man's guy.

24

There is also a lot of worry coming both from the Steel workers union and surprisingly from the Teacher's unions. Their members are not "falling in line" as they would like.

I think this is the key.  It's no secret that there is a lot of pressure from the heads of unions to do away with the secret ballot.  This would give labor leaders even more power to run their unions like fiefdoms.  Unions have a very cozy relationship with Obama.

I'm sure thre are a lot of union workers who may say they are probama but will vote nobama.

25 Posted by: Stacy at October 21, 2008 03:03 PM

Maybe they should check Home Depot instead.

Freakin' racists.

26

I can NOT imagine a self-respecting PA citizen voting for that goof Murtha...seriously! They have a great Republican candidate, who can really do some good, and the alternative choice of bloviating, wind bag Murtha...it's got to be a no-brainer...

 

27

Whenever my candidate has lost I go to bed, get up and go to work the next day. Life goes on. Only the whiny left sits around with their "spirits crushed", the sniveling  little shits.

Talk about projection.

28

If internals in Pennsylvania have McCain down only two in Pennsylvania, where public polls are in low double digits, then what other states are out there that have McCain "losing" by 3-6 points?

It ain't over by any means. (And other commenters have already mentioned the absurdity of trying to keep a secret on one of the largest political sites on the Internet.) 

29 Can't we start an organization--lets call it PineCone, or NutCracker, or Squirrel, or something--to fraudulent register people and inanimate objects to vote for McCain?  Fair is fair!

Seriously, as I asked in another thread, how can internal polling be more accurate than the crap polls that are made public?  I can see how it could be more precise and detailed, but why more accurate?

30

If McCain can flip Pennsylvania, then you can almost throw out the old electoral map. 

My fear is Philadelphia.  I think you'll see swarms of ACORN voters and the shambling undead hitting polling stations like something out of a Romero film.  People showing up six, seven times to vote and if someone calls them on, cries of "Racism" and then injunctions in Federal court to keep the vote open long enough for Obama to win. 

 

31 It would an interesting turn of events were McCain to win PA, meaning he could drop CO and VA and still win the EV count. Imagine the reaction on MSNBC:

Chris Matthews: Well, McCain is essentially tied with Obama, so let's call it for Obama. It's what, 6:45? Okay, we're calling VA for Obama. Keith?

Keith Olbermann: I just touched myself when you called VA for Obama. Now all eyes go out to Colorado, where team McCain has got to be crying. All early exist polls are showing that Obama is whipping McCain soundly. All the people leaving work to go vote in CO? Don't bother. Keep working. You'll need to: taxes are a-goin' up soon.

::8:45 p.m., Matthews and Olbermann doing a little waltz in the studio::

Matthews: Well, results from western PA are coming in and Obama is... wait, he's losing? Big? Did every redneck racist stop humping his cousin and head to the polls?

Olbermann: I just shit myself when you said that Obama was losing Pennsylvania.

Matthews: More votes coming in. Let's check with Michael Barone to see what votes are left in the state. Probably some Dem strongholds still to deliver.

Barone: All of the city votes are in. What's left are probably going to go for McCain.

Olbermann: I just shit myself again.
==================================

It would be a joy to behold. Here's hoping.

32 McCain needs to sue in districts that have more votes than registered, which I predict happens in Philly

33 FloofyParisParamus: the difference is that polls commissioned for public release are paid for by someone whose goal may or may not be to actually predict the outcome of the election. An internal poll's sole purpose is to craft itself to reflect as accurately as possible what would happen RIGHT NOW if everyone voted.

34 Philadelphia will be a problem, as will the city of Pittsburgh. If you fall anywhere else in the state, it is crucial to get people out. Volunteer to be a poll worker to help keep an eye on ACORN and others.

I am in Western PA. Unfortunately, not in Murtha's district. Don't believe the polls in WV either. McCain is up more than they are letting on.

35 This "demoralize them!!!!1!111!!!1eleventy!1!!1" bullshit is so transparent and tiresome.  It's classic Schumer-schmuck technique, but only works when it's impossible to get contrary information.  When the campaign itself releases contrary info, they're doomed.  It only works on the hopelessly uninformed and the chickenshit pundit class.

Pretty soon, the entire edifice will collapse, and BO will be standing there holding his dick and wondering where his fancy new clothes are.

36

My state has been trending very, very blue

That said- I have seen way, way more McCain/Palin signs in areas that have recently voted blue (Chester, Delaware, Bucks and MontCo). Shit- even N/E Philly!!! than in any other election

So, this story is very encouraging, but the trends dont get my hopes up. I always get my hopes up and my guy loses by 2 or 3 % points

37 24  I'm sure thre are a lot of union workers who may say they are probama but will vote nobama.

My girlfriend's father (here in Michigan) is a lifelong Dem and proud UAW member - he keeps his UAW cap in the back window of his truck so everyone knows.  He retired out of GM ("skilled trades" he always has to add, lest you think he was white collar or something). 

She says she is pretty shocked by his sudden conversion to being a Republican.  He loves McCain and is constantly ranting against the Democrats.  She said it is weird to her, because she had lectures about voting Democrat her whole life. 

38 35
Then Obama will be the cause de jour. He will win the Nobel prize for "Economics and the Oppressed". Hollywood will make a movie on ow the media stole the election from him by allowing Ayers name to be spoken. Halliburton and big oil contrived to pay off Joe the Plumber to distort Obama's sound economic policies.........

39 During the primaries "Fast Eddie" Rendell said "You've got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate,". He later said in the same interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he (Ed) would have won the governorship by 17% than 22% if Lynn Swann was white. Gee, it's funny how it's the Dems who keep bringing up race but, then again, that's what you get when your party plays idenity politics.

40

I think this leaked poll occurred last week.  Hopefully, the poll still holds.  The Obama campaign seems awfully confident about PA claiming they are up double digits.  I'm praying that Mac can flip PA red and then he can afford to lose CO, IA and NM.

Keeping my fingers crossed here in Massachusetts.

41 Will McCain win PA? Hard to say, have to see how many fake votes come out of Philly. Will Obama win by double digits? Hell fucking no and any poll showing it you can toss right now, I don't care how many times you take it and get the same result. There is something wrong with it. Gore won PA by 5 in 2000 in what was much more favorable conditions. Kerry squeaked it by 2. Obama wins by 5 at most but I would still give McCain a 50/50 shot at winning it at this point.
One thing which may help is that I think Team O will push the North East cities to not sit on their votes as per usual and push them out to make it look really strong, really early for him on election night. If that's the case it will be much harder to squeeze out those extra a few he might need in a tight race but they will probably hold back 5% of the inner city precincts till late just in case.

Here a funny question...why is only the Red states seem to have early voting?
Why don't the Dems push for it in their strongholds in the North east?
Maybe because there is no way to fudge early votes on election night if you need to?

42 I live in Central Pennsylvania and regularly commute southwest to Johnstown. McCain signs and stickers outnumber Obama by a huge margin, even where I live, in a college town. That leak was last week sometime, but it jives with what you see both campaigns doing here. Obama is spending tons of money here, and McCain is campaigning the hell out of this state. Those are the actions of candidates whose internal polls tell them the race is close. In the day here, it's all Obama ads on TV. I the evenings, McCain ads outnumber Obama ads by about 3:1.

At the Palin rally in the heart of Murtha's district, only 20-30 Obama supporters showed up to "protest."

43

Can't we start an organization--lets call it PineCone, or NutCracker, or Squirrel, or something--to fraudulent register people and inanimate objects to vote for McCain?  Fair is fair!

Don't even consider naming it anything other than CORNHOLE!

44

Ace

 

Pa has 90% whites and 10% blacks.  For Obama to win he would have to get alot of those rednecks racists to vote for him.  If the whites split 50/50  Obama wins  but if they split 55/45?   It will be close very close.   I'm from western PA born and raised I don't think Western Pa would go for Obama.  things have been tough there since the steel mills left in the early 80's   Not many of them have 401k's etc so the recent market news will not be an impact.   I could see Philly going for Obama but the rest of the state?  I don't think so.  Pa is made of hard people that believe in lower taxes.  Reagan democrates all.   Not new age hopeychangy dems. 

Alot of joes in PA ,

 

   

45

 rightwingprof

 

Penn state grad here.  Happy Valley still standing after the win Sat?

46 Seriously, as I asked in another thread, how can internal polling be more accurate than the crap polls that are made public?  I can see how it could be more precise and detailed, but why more accurate?

Look at it from a military perspective: internal polls are Intel, public polls are Artillery. You can't plan a battle effectively without good Intel, and skewed public polls are a decent way to demoralize the enemy.

47 Internal polls target groups of people and are more selective and have many more respondents. Public polls have a set "sample" and try and compress the electorate into that "sample" set.

48

Obama's totals outside of Philly, Pittsburgh and State College will resemble those big smoking things in the ground after a meteor strike.

The word is right on the tip of my tongue...c-something...

49

Interesting notes from the PA contingent.  As of last weekend, Obama signs outnumbered McCain yard signs 90:1 in Bucks County.

I took that as a sign of the End Times and began contemplating how best to round out the education of Sarah so that she's bullet-proof in 2012.

50 I just got back from Wilkes-Barre last week and I believe PA is up for grabs.  In 2004 there were Kerry signs all over the place.  Hardly any Obama signs.  I saw more McCain/Palin.  After listening to quite a few conversations in my hometown a lot of Dems will not be voting for OBarky and they don't believe the bullshit that Biden is our 3rd Senator.  To most people he's an ass.
Anything is possible at this point.

51 I've reached the conclusion that McCain is still in this thing.  With every day revealing more and more about Obama ... he has to be.  The press may tell me that Americans don't care about Ayers, Wright, or the fact that the Democrats provided the seed that brought the world's economy to it's knees.  The press can tell me that Americans are all for taxing the rich and that they don't think doing that will make our economy worse.  They can tell me that they believe Obama and the Democrats are better at dealing with the economy.

But I just don't believe that. 

52 #1 -  I am dubious of some Kos Kid "secretly leaking" an internal poll from the Obama campaign. If s/he's posting it on Kos, the individual HAS to know that the news would spread virally on other blogs. I can only imagine this is done to give McCain supporters (and anti-Obamaers) "false hope" about an Obama defeat. I know this seems like an Eeyore mentality but I'm suspicious of someone trying to keep something a secret on a public forum on the Internet.

#2 - I'm from the Main Line of PA (an affluent area of the Philly suburbs) and it looks like things are edging toward being evenly split. A few months ago, Obama '08 bumper stickers were plastered on cars everywhere and Obama signs littered lawns. Now, more McCain/Palin signs are countering  Obama/Biden signs and McCain/Palin bumper stickers are becoming more prevalent. Despite what the polls say, even the counties near Philly are definitely up for grabs. From what I can see, McCain's got a 50/50 shot.

#3 - Obama outspent Clinton 4:1 in the PA primary and still lost. The places that Obama won? Philadelphia, Lancaster County, and State College. (However, I don't think Lancaster — an area with a high Mennonite and Amish population — will go for Obama.) He couldn't even snag Pittsburgh. But let's throw Pittsburgh in Obama's favor for the general election. If that's the case, and the rest of PA goes for McCain, Obama's toast.

#4 - The youth factor. Obama needs high turnout from ages 18-35 to win the election. I expect significantly higher turnout from young people this year because of the "historical candidacy" and their ability to "help make history." But if the trend of years past follows (and we're only hearing/seeing a vocal minority), Obama's done for.

#5 - Do not forget about PUMAs, Real Democrats USA (RDUSA), and Democrats for McCain (DeMcCrats). These individuals numbering in the tens of thousands and maybe more (knowingly or not) are helping to push the campaign in McCain's favor as much as they can. (RDUSA recently stumped for McCain in Scranton and have now moved on to Ohio.) These disaffected Democrats go unnoticed in polling and in the media. But they exist. And they can change the outcome of this election. McCain is very fortunate. Never in recent history have a significant portion of Democrats bolted for the other party's candidate because they hated their own so much. Republicans need to capitalize on this and use this to their advantage.

#6 - Last but not least (I'll shut up, I promise!), I've noticed that blacks are becoming heavily favored in these polls. In the majority of these polls, blacks favor Obama at a ridiculous number of 97-2. Going off of this, the more blacks you have in a sample size, the more likely the poll will be heavily skewed in Obama's favor.

With all that being said, this can easily be McCain's election to lose. Call me optimistic but disaffected Dems can put good ol' Mac over the top.

53 PUMAgrrl: The only thing I'd disagree with in that list is #1. There is no strategic advantage to making McCain supporters think it's close. They gain an advantage from making us think it's a blowout in their favor.

I find it odd that O took State College. I checked and Centre County went for Bush in 2004, which was a bit of a surprise. I've spent a significant amount of time in Happy Valley and there is a very high hippy quotient.

And, just to show some AoS love for the PUMAs, I told all my Obama loving friends during the primaries that he was the only one who could lose for the Dems, and that Hillary! would crush us like bugs if she got the nom. Not that that means anything now.

54 I just noticed a new set of McCain/Palin signs on South Broad street, near Oregon. They are high enough on the light poles so that any Obots can't easily pull 'em down. Also, I got a McCain flyer at the house on Sunday, telling the story of how one of McCain's prison mates at the Hanoi |Hilton was a "tough SOB fromn South Philly". They're going for it in the heart of Union Dem country.

55 I would absolutely believe in that internal poll. From the time that McCain & Palin are spending here, I would assume that they are seeing the same numbers.

It is very interesting in PA. In 2004, there were Kerry signs everywhere. Today, there are a few Obama signs, but there are just about as many McCain and I am in a Democrat stronghold.

There is also a lot of worry coming both from the Steel workers union and surprisingly from the Teacher's unions. Their members are not "falling in line" as they would like.

Posted by: Stacy at October 21, 2008 02:49 PM (kxDxT)

**********************

I'm seeing the same thing here in Columbus, Ohio.

56 They're trying to scare their base, to keep them from being complacent.

That's why it 'leaked'.

57 I am in Okinawa Jack's district & I have yet to see 1 Obama/Biden & I have seen a ton of McCain/Palin signs & yes this is  a Reagan Democrat area

58 Don't you guys know a fake "leak" when you see one?  No. 56 has it right.

59 The idea here is to make McPalin spend every spare moment and dime in PA.

60 Do NOT neglect bringing up the "bitter" comment. People must be reminded that Barack Obama would speak derrogatively about the people that he pretends he is trying to unite behind their backs. & he aimed it @ my state! How could even urban voters vote for somebody who would demean and practically slander their greater Pennsylvanian neighbors? How is Barack Obama truly a compassionate person who understands his constituency? & how could he really base his campaign on inter-personal comradory and state these things behind our backs? The statement wasn't out of contect. When times are hard we "cling" to guns and religion. C'mon people, never forget this.

I also think John McCain would be able to take Washington State, New Hampshire, & Ohio just by the force of his Maverick-persona, and get back Iowa, North Dakota, and Colorado through the scary Biden statement. implying that Barack Obama is going to do ---something--- the masses will not approve of in some kind of emergency. What will it be? I don't even think the blue states would want to find out...

61 AHHH I don't think so looks at these supposed McCain Internals from Quinn & Rose Morning show


The Quinn and Rose show this morning was saying that the McCain internals look like this: PA: M - 51, O - 46
OH: M - 47, O - 41
MO: M - 44, O - 40

62

AHHH I don't think so looks at these supposed McCain Internals from Quinn & Rose Morning show


The Quinn and Rose show this morning was saying that the McCain internals look like this: PA: M - 51, O - 46
OH: M - 47, O - 41
MO: M - 44, O - 40

I can't speak for PA and MO but that would fit what I see here in OH.

63 This is an effort to fool McCain into wasting resources. 

64 Maybe so, but that only works if McCain's internals agree, in which case....

65 UMMM blip you're the only fool these ARE McCAIN'S INTERNAL POLLS GENIUS

66

I hope everyone notices the "crush their spirits" meme. 

Obviously they're not talking about "reaching across the aisle", except in the metaphoric context of swinging baseball bats to crush conservative medulla oblongatas as well as spirits.

Does anyone think they will change after election day?

Only McCain, I suspect...

 

67

I listen to this show daily and the host is a Hillary supporter that now loudly denounces Obama and hails McCain/Palin. They may be trying to screw him over, because he used to be a loud voice for Democrats in the valley.

I have lived in Northeast PA all my life and have never heard so many voices in the very democratic Wyoming Valley (Wilkes-Barre/Scranton) speaking out for McCain. They are heavily Hillary supporters and really are bitter - about the way Hillary was treated. I am hearing and seeing support in areas of Scranton that I have never seen or heard before this year.  Remember, this is an area that continued to re-elect Paul Kanjorski to Congress even after it became widely known that he was robbing the taxpayers blind by funneling tax $$$ directly to businesses that were created and run by his daughter and other relatives. Businesses that were created solely to get the grants that he was earmarking.

I believe that this simply verified McCain's internals, otherwise they would not be spending so much money and time here.

68

*very democrat-leaning not very democratic

Sorry, I get all flustered, bitter and clingy whenever I start thinking about Barry.

69 I think if anything the supposed Obama internal at +2 is generous. They might be worse off than that and not wanting to alarm the cultists by admitting how bad the Titanic is really leaking

70  McCain is doomed. To win, all Obama has to do is win his solid states and his leaning states and he has 286 . More than enough. For McCain to win he has to win ALL of his solid states, All of his leaning states, ALL of the toss up states  PLUS he will have to find 11 EV from one of The Obama leaning states to get to 270. That would require a long series of consecutive miracles.

71 Face it fools, don't believe your lying eyes, all heil President ZERO!

72 Screw the polls...just shut up and go out and vote for McCain/Palin. Stop worrrying, focusing, obsessing, fantasizing, speculating, embellishing, downplaying, etc. Just VOTE!

73 - It is very interesting in PA. In 2004, there were Kerry signs everywhere. Today, there are a few Obama signs, but there are just about as many McCain and I am in a Democrat stronghold.-

It's the new paradigm. Research shows that political yard signs have negligible effects of voter perception and are a waste of campaign resources. Curiously, the one place where campaign signs are effective is during televised campaign rallies and news media events. The reason is the density of visual imagery. A single campaign banner in a strategic position gets repilicated tens of thousands of times in the elctronic visual media.

74 "Can't we start an organization--lets call it PineCone, or NutCracker, or Squirrel, or something--to fraudulent register people and inanimate objects to vote for McCain?  Fair is fair!"


Hahaha...All great suggestions.

Obama's shit is sinking into the icy Atlantic.  Near, far, wherever he is, he might be staying there

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124 Un total de once comunidades autnomas estn este jueves en alerta naranja Christmas gift ugg tall boots (riesgo importante) por nevadas y bajan las temperaturas en toda Espa09a, segn la Agencia Estatal de Meteorologa (AEMET). En concreto, se Christmas gift ugg napoule sandal trata de Aragn, Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalu09a, Christmas gift timberland classic boots Madrid, Navarra, Comunidad Valenciana, Galicia, Pas Vasco, Asturias y Murcia. La cota de nieve bajar a menos de 200 metros en el CantbricoLa Pennsula Ibrica est bajo dos borrascas y un anticicln que crearn un pasillo que permitir el paso de una corriente de aire muy fro, como la que est provocando un temporal de fro glaciar en Europa, aunque es esperan que el fro que suframos no sea tan intenso como en otros pases. An as, se espera que las bajas temperaturas se mantengan hasta el domingo. La cota de nieve baja en el Cantbrico a menos de 200 metros

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