1

I want to hire the Goodyear blimp so it can fly over Obambi's victory loser party flashing the sign "Congrats to President-elect McCain and Vice-President-elect Palin."

 

2 I've been pessimistic ever since McCain locked up the nomination (thank you 27% of Florida Republicans). I'm still not convinced a vote for Predator is necessarily better than a vote for Alien, even if Predator's running mate is Ellen Ripley.

3

The strategy is to discourage the opposition turnout.  When Obama loses, it'll be because we are racists. 

The fact that he's a corrupt politician with no experience and dubious associates won't matter.  Just call me a racist, now.  He'll win NY, in that sense I know my vote is wasted.  I didn't vote for McCain in the primary, but I know who will do less damage to the country.  I'll vote accordingly.  I always do.

4 I think that's a fair assessment. Five points with 2 weeks to go is not insurmountable, and there are plenty of revelations, gaffes, investigations, etc. that could produce a small or large game changer in the last 2 weeks.  The whole Dem strategy is to portray the election as a done deal, trying to dampen enthusiasm among conservatives. I say fight like hell until the last vote is cast and counted.

5

ALERT:  just noticed  that there is speculation brewing about the real reason Obama may be headed to Hawaii....not just because his grandmother may be ill.

http://tiny.cc/QYqBa

Apparently Andy Martin has filed a lawsuit in Honolulu demanding access to Obama's Birth Certificate.  Suit was filed in Honolulu on 10-18-08.

 

 

6

I'm not pessimistic at all.  Bad days once in awhile?  Sure. But I do think in the end we're going to win this election.

Did anyone see Barney Frank comments from yesterday on CNBC? 

"I think at this point, there needs to be an immediate increase in spending, and I think this is a time when deficit fear has to take a second, uh, a second seat. I do think this is the time for a very important kind of dose of [unintelligible]. Yes, I think later on, there should be tax increases. Speaking personally, I think there are a lot of rich people out there who we can tax at a point down the road to recover some of this money."

http://tinyurl.com/6q9b7z

More spending!  More taxes!!  WAHOO!!!

Come on John!  You gotta jump on this!!

 

7

we need huge base turnout to offset the black turnout for Obama.  he was on the hip hop station in charlotte this morning telling them to all go vote even if they aren't registered because they could register and vote on same day(like a provisional ballot on election day).

 

Hopefully the Fear of Obama and Sarah Palin will combine for huge base turnout.  So far in NC, its huge Dem and black vote turnout in early voting

8 C'mon, Rethugs, give it up.  Barack has promised to give 95 percent of Americans a tax cut--even the lowest-income 50% who *already* pay no income tax.  So we'll get our "tax cut" in the form of a nice big check.  Every year.

I just *love* that idea.  As do all my friends. 

And we're registered to vote.  In fact I've got a dozen voter registrations just in case you Rethugs close down my polling place, or the line's too long.

McSame hasn't offered me anything near what Barack has.  So I hope you guys enjoy 8 years of an Obama presidency!

9

obama is also running out the clock running to Hawaii right now, how do you drop the Ayers babysat his kids story with him at his 'dying' grandmothers side?

 

Clock is running out, we screwed up not dropping his stuff in August/September and before the Financial Crisis hit

10

Well, as far as done deals and inevitability are concerned- let's ask Hillary Clinton how that worked out.

I'm one of those that isn't particularly thrilled with McCain and even was on the "Let Obama win just to remind the country of the Carter years" bandwagon, but I'll admit, Palin won me over. 

11 obama is also running out the clock running to Hawaii right now, how do you drop the Ayers babysat his kids story with him at his 'dying' grandmothers side?

Easy.  You drop it on him when he comes back.  Closer to the election and before the weekend.

12

 When I sit down to watch football, my favorite team is going to lose.

Seriously? You know that there are Lions fans on this site, don't you? Jeez...

13

Hell, yes, we have a chance.  The GOP always wins when it's this close, and polling party ID has been fucked with more than usual this time around. 

In fact, Mav will win. 

I sense desperation and stupidity in the Omega camp and the Democrat party in general.  Omega stupidly tipped his hand with Joe the Plumber.  Then they stupidly went after Joe the Plumber.  Bawney Fwank stupidly just called for tax increases.  Omega and Pelosi have tried to create the appearance of a juggernaut, picking cabinet officials, and talking about calling Congress into session right after the election.  Omega is already planning his giant victory party and telegraphing that fact to everyone.  All this reeks of desperation.

In times like this--with all the stupidity, nastiness, and naked media bias--Reagan would have just leaned back, smiled, and said, "It means we're winning." 

14

DEVELOPING STORY:  update to Berg Lawsuit 

10/21/08: Due to Procedure. Obama and DNC Admit All Allegations

Link:  http://tiny.cc/8bD2E

Given the "usually devastating" consequence of failure to respond in time to a request for admissions such as those served upon Obama and the DNC on September 15, just what were some of the admissions that Berg asserts Barack Obama and the DNC have, at least procedurally, admitted to?
 

Admit you were born in Kenya. Admit you are a Kenya “natural born” citizen. Admit your foreign birth was registered in the State of Hawaii. Admit your father, Barrack Hussein Obama, Sr., admitted Paternity of you. Admit your mother gave birth to you in Mombosa, Kenya. Admit your mother’s maiden name is Stanley Ann Dunham a/k/a Ann Dunham. Admit the COLB [Certification of Live Birth] posted on the website “Fightthesmears.com” is a forgery. Admit you were adopted by a Foreign Citizen. Admit you were adopted by Lolo Soetoro, M.A. a citizen of Indonesia. Admit you were not born in Hawaii. Admit you are a citizen of Indonesia. Admit you never took the “Oath of Allegiance” to regain your U.S. Citizenship status. Admit you are not a “natural born” United States citizen. Admit your senior campaign staff is aware you are not a “natural born” United States Citizen. Admit the United States Constitution does not allow for a Person to hold the office of President of the United States unless that person is a “natural born” United States citizen. Admit you are ineligible pursuant to the United States Constitution to serve as President and/or Vice President of the United States.

15 Wasn't Bush ahead in some national polls at this point in 2004 though?

16 ``I say again: the polls are crap.''


Amen, amen, amen.

I've only been polled once - on behalf of my Congresscritter, Rahm Emanuel - and there's no question that the thing was skewed to get the answers the Emanuelites wanted to hear.  ``Do you think he's doing a fantastic job as Congressman, an excellent job, or just a very good job?'' (``None of the above'' was not an option.) Or ``Do you think he's doing a good enough job fighting eeevil  Big Pharma?'' (``That's not part of his job description'' was not an allowable answer.) 

I stuck it out to the end (even helping the nice young lady on the phone who could not pronounce ``Daley'' or ``Blagojevich'') but I felt frustrated and disgusted afterwards. 

MarkD, I sympathize: I know what it's like to have all my local-level votes go to waste.  And I wasn't crazy about McCain either (though, bless him for picking Gov. Palin as a running mate).  But even though Illinois will go for Obama - either through fraud, or because there are enough idiots here who genuinely want to see him as President - I'm going to vote anyway.  It'll add to the nationwide popular vote by which the Republican candidate wins this year - just as it did in 2004. 

17

9: obama is also running out the clock running to Hawaii right now, how do you drop the Ayers babysat his kids story with him at his 'dying' grandmothers side?

 Clock is running out, we screwed up not dropping his stuff in August/September and before the Financial Crisis hit

I say fuck it.

Drop.It.All.

Now.

Wasn't The One busting on McCain for not being able to mutli-task when McCain suspended his campaign to go back to Washington when the Paulson/Bernanke engineering financial crisis hit the fan??

Drop.It.All

and let's see Barry squirm. It's time to go Alinsky on Barry. Isn't that part of the Alinsky strategy? Attack, attack, attack. From all sides. Starting Thursday morning when he's in the air after leaving Indy.

 

 

18

I agree that we still need to go with any and all fair attacks on Obama, including Ayers, Wright, as well as normal policy arguements.

I am NOT SURE that "the grandmother illness" isn't  a HOAX to buy time forsome other reason....

19 I don't know, Juliet.  A guy tells me his grandmother's sick and goes to visit her, I'm inclined to believe him on that one.

20 You should have taken my stats class. We have lots of fun. Having said that:

"Polling is, at best, an extremely inexact science and even the best polls are based on numerous assumptions about the population at large."

Indeed it is, and I hope your stats prof made that crystal clear in class.

21 Why would Bambi have to go physically to Hawaii to keep his birth certificate wrapped up?  It seems like counsel could handle it long-distance.

My opinion is that Barry needs breathing room, and that their internals are crumbling.  They're going to try to re-tool and are claiming a 'family crisis' as a 'don't you dare' cover story, as well as get Biden's gaffe to dwindle and to separate himself from the savaging of JtP.

22

Remember the three types of lies, Slu: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Can McCain/Palin win? Why yes ... yes we can!* There's gonna be a huge debt owed to the PUMAs, but I'll gladly pay it.

 

_{* And I'm sooo ready to dial the taunting end zone celebration up to 11 on these three words come November 5th. I got your "Yes We Can" right here, Obambots.}

23

I keep wondering if he's got so much money, why is his lead next to non-existant?

Now's the time to ramp up the pressure, both on Barry Ho and the Dems in Congress. I think they've got a sugar-glass jaw, and if you hit it, they'll disintergrate.

24 From ""Dumb and Dumber":

Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me... ending up together?
Mary: Well, that's pretty difficult to say.
Lloyd: Hit me with it! I've come a long way to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance.

25

As I think Ann Coulter said, nobody tells a pollster they are voting for McCain to look cool.

When they get in the privacy of a voting booth, I think the undecideds will, more often than not, stay away from the blank slate called Obama.

26

I dunno which way this Ozombie movie ends.  Do the Ozombies overrun everything or do the human holdouts suvive through this dark (racist!) night?

Who knows what the election day dawn will bring.  I do know that I will keep struggling for McCain and Palin.  If we lose  to the ozombie horde I will know that I stood with others against that foul tide.  If we win then I will dance.

And that is good enough for me.

27 I pray the polls in Virginia are wrong.  But if McCain loses Virginia, I want to apologize to everyone.  We're trying here.

28

I never doubted for a moment that Bush would win in 2000 and 2004. And yet, those were...kinda close, IIRC.

Now I'm not so sure. I think we can pull it off. I really worry about all the corruption. That could be the difference right there.

I hope the people in solidly red and blue states really get out and vote. I want to see that popular vote. Can you imagine if McCain gets the popular vote but loses the election? As they explain why it doesn't matter now, the leftie blogs will be covered with bits of exploded head.

29 . Don't let these people bring you down, keep fighting!  You can do this, you have to do this!  Everything they are doing to McCain now, I watched them do to Hillary and get away with it.  They trickled out all kinds of big named Obama endorsements right towards the end of the primary, and it was never enough for them to just politely endorse Obama.  They had to completely rip apart the opposition, and accuse them of running a dirty campaign, while insinuating racism.      If you think this stifling of dissent nonsense is bad now, imagine how bad it will  be with Obama in office, when he's done asking for your vote, and he can spend the next four years hushing up all conservative voices.  Don't sit around thinking you can run your dream candidate and win in 2012, it's not going to happen if Obama is running for re election then.  He will have 4 years in power to make sure of it!

30 Apparently, Joe Biden has no events scheduled, either.  Is his granny sick, too?

31

Note to self: Slublog has not accepted the one true religion:

http://tinyurl.com/6o3jh8

 

32 I taught Statistics, Statistical Research and Statistical Analysis. I even had my own company consulting Statistical Process Control in the business world. Ace is correct here, political polls are crap.

33 It is a commonly known fact that numbers & mathmatics have a liberal bias.  Newton and Pascal where both socialists! Just look at the number 4, it is clearly pointing to the left!  Proof! I say!

34 Posted by: rightwingprof at October 21, 2008 09:36 AM (52wuV)

Wish I'd taken your class.  I should admit that research methods was more interesting - the chance to apply the concepts was welcome.

35 Crouching PUMA at October 21, 2008 09:59 AM (XWJh5)

In 2005, my Congressman Frank Pallone and 3 others brought up an attempt to repeal the 22nd Amendment (2 term limit ) for presidents. It was tabled. Didn't Barry talk about dealing with world leaders for 8-10 years?

36 I wouldn't put it past him.  Bloomberg did it, with the Democrats running everything in DC, Obama will be able to do it too.

37

there are plenty of revelations, gaffes, investigations, etc. that could produce a small or large game changer in the last 2 weeks. 

Exactly. Why do you think Obama is pushing so desperately to get his supporters to do the early voting thing?

38 Don't forget history.

Election of 1948

Truman was so widely expected to lose the 1948 election that the Chicago Tribune ran this incorrect headline. Truman is standing on the rear platform of the train car Ferdinand Magellan at St. Louis Union Station.

The 1948 presidential election is best remembered for Truman’s stunning come-from-behind victory. In the spring of 1948, Truman’s public approval rating stood at 36 percent, and the president was nearly universally regarded as incapable of winning the general election. The “New Deal” operatives within the party—including FDR’s son James—tried to swing the Democratic nomination to General Dwight D. Eisenhower, a wildly popular figure whose political views—and party affiliation—were totally unknown. Eisenhower emphatically refused to accept, and Truman outflanked opponents to his nomination.

At the 1948 Democratic National Convention, Truman attempted to calm turbulent domestic political waters by placing a tepid civil rights plank in the party platform; the aim was to assuage the internal conflicts between the northern and southern wings of his party. Events overtook the president’s efforts at compromise, however. A sharp address given by Mayor Hubert Humphrey of Minneapolis—as well as the local political interests of a number of urban bosses—convinced the Convention to adopt a stronger civil rights plank, which Truman approved wholeheartedly. All of Alabama’s delegates, and a portion of Mississippi’s, walked out of the convention in protest. Unfazed, Truman delivered an aggressive acceptance speech attacking the 80th Congress and promising to win the election and “make these Republicans like it.”

Within two weeks, Truman issued Executive Order 9981, racially integrating the U.S. Armed Services. Truman took considerable political risk in backing civil rights, and many seasoned Democrats were concerned that the loss of Dixiecrat support might destroy the Democratic Party. The fear seemed well justified—Strom Thurmond declared his candidacy for the presidency and led a full-scale revolt of Southern “states’ rights” proponents. This revolt on the right was matched by a revolt on the left, led by former Vice President Henry A. Wallace on the Progressive Party ticket. Immediately after its first post-FDR convention, the Democratic Party found itself disintegrating. Victory in November seemed a remote possibility indeed, with the party not simply split but divided three ways.

There followed a remarkable 21,928-mile (35,290 km) presidential odyssey, an unprecedented personal appeal to the nation. Truman and his staff crisscrossed the United States in the presidential train; his “whistlestop” tactic of giving brief speeches from the rear platform of the observation car Ferdinand Magellan came to represent the entire campaign. His combative appearances, such as those at the town square of Harrisburg, Illinois, captured the popular imagination and drew huge crowds. Six stops in Michigan drew a combined total of half a million people; a full million turned out for a New York City ticker-tape parade.

The large, mostly spontaneous gatherings at Truman’s depot events were an important sign of a critical change in momentum in the campaign—but this shift went virtually unnoticed by the national press corps, which continued reporting Republican Thomas Dewey’s apparent impending victory as a certainty. One reason for the press’ inaccurate projection was polls conducted primarily by telephone in a time when many people, including much of Truman’s populist base, did not own a telephone. This skewed the data to indicate a stronger support base for Dewey than existed, resulting in an unintended and undetected projection error that may well have contributed to the perception of Truman’s bleak chances. The three major polling organizations also stopped polling well before the November 2 election date—Roper in September, and Crossley and Gallup in October—thus failing to measure the very period when Truman appears to have surged past Dewey.

In the end, Truman held his midwestern base of progressives, won most of the Southern states despite his civil rights plank, and squeaked through with narrow victories in a few critical “battleground” states, notably Ohio, California, and Illinois. The final tally showed that the president had secured 303 electoral votes, Dewey 189, and Thurmond only 39. Henry Wallace got none. The defining image of the campaign came after Election Day, when Truman held aloft the erroneous front page of the Chicago Tribune with a huge headline proclaiming “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

39

Ace is correct here, political polls are crap.

He's right, even when he calls himself "Slublog".

40 Election of 1948/i>

I wuz robbed!

41

Eww, railwriter, now I have to go wash my hands.

The optimism of Redskins fans amused me greatly when I lived in the DC area. Win one game and it's "We're headed to the Superbowl!!!1!" Quite a change from the Philly fans I was used to.

42 Election of 1948

I wuz robbed!

43 Actually, this is a good time to go full hog on Biden.  He's given us some good ammo even just recently.  Avoids the appearance of hamminering on Zero while he's out visiting his ill typical white grandmother and can't defend himself, and lets us focus on showing people how lame the "gravitas" and "experience" part of the Donk ticket is.

44 A guy tells me his grandmother's sick and goes to visit her, I'm inclined to believe him on that one.

Never taught college students, have you? 

The good news for us is that when he's out surfing instead of holding a vigil at her side, Newsweek and Time won't be able to resist running the photos of him shirtless.

45 Never taught college students, have you?

Heh. I asked a friend to go see a movie with me. She said no, "I have to stay home for the dead grandma calls, I just got my 8th one tonight." [Her husband taught a large physics class.]

46 I'd better hop over to the Atlantic and see if Sullivan has started demanding Obama's grandmother's medical records.

47 A guy tells me his grandmother's sick and goes to visit her, I'm inclined to believe him on that one.

Posted by: Slublog at October 21, 2008 09:35 AM

Isn't that how (amoung other things) Johnny what's-his-butt made himself famous on Survivor?  Lying about his grandmother?

48 I'd better hop over to the Atlantic and see if Sullivan has started demanding Obama's grandmother's medical records.

Ugh. I made the mistake of going over there yesterday after I swore I never would again. Every time I think he can't get any worse, he does. The other writers should realize that his shit makes them stink, too. I'm not going to subscribe to the gay newsletter or click on their link in order to continue employing the pervert.

49 Lynn Forrester is on Laura Ingraham.

50 Talk about pessimism, try being an Eagles fan. Four NFC title games in a row led to only one (losing) Super Bowl appearance. I'm kinda an optomistic pessimist. I always hold out hope but still expect a broken heart. I do believe polls can indicate outcome. However, this year's election includes a few heretofore unseen variables- Palin; Pumas; Bradley Effect (maybe); The unusual cult of personality and Rush's Operation Chaos, which may all be skewing things. Even if the polls are on target, McCain may be closing. I'm not sure if I'll be able to watch on election night though.

51 Kelley ... are you going to post that same eeyore post on every thread?

Glad to see the optimistic threads! Yes, McCain has an excellent chance to win. The internal polls are better indicators than the other polls. GOTV, people.

Yes, the MSM is trying to stop the hope for Republicans. Why start a rumor that McCain was pulling out of CO, IA, etc.?

As far as BO and his grandmother ... his grandmother, the one who has given him everything, went into the hospital and BO didn't stop campaigning to go see her. Now she is out and may be dying and he is going to campaign for two days and then go see her. Hmmm. If it were my grandmother, I'd be on the next plane. Grandma First. Campaign Second.

52 When even the MSM-filtered polls state the majority of respondents consider McCain to be "More trustworthy", you've got to wonder what else is there left to discuss by serious people?  The rest amounts to so much rigidly enforced rictus-smile Excitement! of the dem base and fluffy hope-for-change-for-the-sake-of-change syrup aimed at the fence sitters who see choosing a president as a decorating choice...

Fluffy voters historically, thankfully, have a lower turnout at polltime, but I'm concerned about whether McCain is doing enough to motivate his own base... and by that I mean really going on the offensive - as we saw in '04 nothing ignites the conservative base like seeing evidence of the opposition's lies and cheating, but as we also saw it takes a massive amount of effort to move the message through the MSM or other avenues.

The one real threat to McCain winning the presidency is his own tendency to pull his punches/not push his advantage, I suspect because he wants to preserve his status on the gang of 14 as a middle-of-the-road/RINO/"maverick" etc so he has something to go back to if his presidential bid should fail; unfortunately if so, that kind of thinking is what could make his loss a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The trustworthiness score is really at the heart of the matter and if McCain/Palin and supporters can max out their efforts at vetting Obama's various BS, they should be able to use that score as a wedge issue to deny Obama a large number of votes, and have a pretty good chance of winning.

We'll see.

53

Listen, we can win this. And you know why?

Spite.

To piss off Jon "Fuck you, Palin" Stewart. To piss off Chris "Tingle" Matthews. To see Olbermann get himself into such a fit of anger on national television he fucking explodes like when the Rumplestiltskin hears his name.

To hear liberal pundits, in rage, accidently tell America what they really think about us.

To have the media realize that the irreversable shedding of all respectibility, objectivity, and prestige in shill work was for naught.

To drown in the oh so delicious salty tears of unfathomable sorrow cousing from the ducts of Obama worshipers at the fall of their false Messiah.

To win this election, with all that has gone down this campaign season, would be the sweetest, most intoxicating wine imaginable.

54 Lynn Forrester said on Laura Ingraham that she over heard an Obama official say that they are now going to go after her personally for linking Obama with Rashid Khalidi in her speeches.

55

Seems to me like this would be a good time to run against the Democratic Congress anyway. A lot of undecideds don't like the idea of single-party government.

I wonder if Obama's "typical white person" Gramma will finally expire from her bus wounds.

56
googled the:

"Feb. 23, 1996
The Democratic Socialists of America Present
The First Chicago Town Meeting on Economic Insecurity"

...which was mentioned in comment 2 from the PUMA link above and came up with this:

http://tinyurl.com/3mepsc

Obama was a speaker.  Quote from the article:

One of the themes that has emerged in Barack Obama's campaign is "what does it take to create productive communities", not just consumptive communities. It is an issue that joins some of the best instincts of the conservatives with the better instincts of the left. He felt the state government has three constructive roles to play.

The first is "human capital development". By this he meant public education, welfare reform, and a "workforce preparation strategy". Public education requires equality in funding. It's not that money is the only solution to public education's problems but it's a start toward a solution. The current proposals for welfare reform are intended to eliminate welfare but it's also true that the status quo is not tenable. A true welfare system would provide for medical care, child care and job training. While Barack Obama did not use this term, it sounded very much like the "social wage" approach used by many social democratic labor parties. By "workforce preparation strategy", Barack Obama simply meant a coordinated, purposeful program of job training instead of the ad hoc, fragmented approach used by the State of Illinois today.

57 I recall learning a bit about newsroom polling methodologies back in the late 1980s when it was thought that professional whites were oversampled and "hard-working blue collar Democrats" were undersampled, thus requiring an adjustment in the sampling distribution. The theory went that professional whites were home during the evening and answering pollster's calls, while blue collar types were on swing shifts, and lower income minorities simply didn't have a phone.

I haven't seen a correction in the model, but note we clearly have had demographic shift. Show me a welfare minority who can't be reached, while too many professionals have gone exclusively to cell phones and dropped the land line. We haven't been polled in over 5 years, but then again, our "home phone" are our cell phones and we reject all unsolicited calls. There's certainly 1-2% out there of error in the polling model from this factor alone. That, other polling error (e.g. claiming to vote left to seem cool when you're not going to), and any reasonable conservative turnout and we can win this thing.

58 Thomas: The Clinton supporters love Lynn Forrester (even the ones on the fence or reluctantly voting for BO). It would be a huge mistake for BO and camp to go after her. I say, Go for it BO. LOL.

Loved your post, Lee #53!!

59

obama is also running out the clock running to Hawaii right now, how do you drop the Ayers babysat his kids story with him at his 'dying' grandmothers side?

This is a sympathy play.  Idiots will think it's all wonderful that he rushed to the side of his dying grandmother instead of campaigning.  By Friday, she wil make a miraculous recovery.

60 Don't forget.

EARLY VOTING IS PART OF THE DIM STRATEGY TO DISCOURAGE REPUBLICAN VOTES ON ELECTION DAY.

That's why the Dims are so intent on early voting So, early "accidently leaked" numbers will so an Obama landslide.

Bank on it. So, vote early if you can. And don't be discouraged if you can't. You can't trust anything polls, news, anything until after the polls close nationally and the real returns start coming in.

61

In college, I suffered through statistics. I hated that class more than Michael Moore hates George W. Bush. Statistical research methods was even worse. In retrospect, I'm glad I took those courses. Because what I learned from them is that for the most part, polls are crap.

I couldn't agree more.  The best course I've taken in graduate school was a course on survey design and methodology.  The professor spent two weeks explaining just how easy (and common) it is to manipulate poll results.  Interestingly, he discussed this not in the context of politics, but in the context of marketing research. 

62

This year, MamaAJ. This year.

Lee (#53) is right, but I prefer to keep the spite local. If McCain wins, the neighborhood that I endure (I could sell and move. Yeah, right.) is going to see their bespectacled, mild-mannered, token Republican off the fucking chain.

"Hi, Bobby! How was school? Hey, listen. Here's twenty bucks. I don't care what you spend it on, as long as you tell your mom and dad I gave it to you so you could buy yourself an American flag or a used copy of Capitalism and Freedom."

 

63 Before I comment on the on-topic posting let me just say that depending of the Troofers to save the day with a birth certificate is insane and a huge waste of energy.  Even if one has been found that is bullet-proof, the courts will find a way to ventilate it aster than you can get a sub-prime mortgage.  (I hear they have tightened things up--you can't get one approved on Sunday anymore.)

(And I think it is very wrong for us to speculate on alternate reasons for Obama's trip to Hawaii.  We must take that at face value until He discloses and alternate reason.  On this kind of stuff I do agree with John McCain.)

As is speculating on what The Atlantic Monthly might have in its cesspit.  (And I think the speculation itself is wrong--she is no doubt demanding the medical records of the orderly in the Maternity pod.)

I think the remarks about the polls are probably right.

I think the ballots-cast will be overwhelmingly in favor of McCain.  I would not be surprised to learn that the down-ballot results were very favorable.

I also think that is all irrelevant.  What matters is what is on the tally sheets when they are certified.

And I think the necessaries are already in place to insure that the Right Numbers are on the tally sheets at the right time.

I would really like to be found to be as wrong and as silly as the Troofers.

64 Of course, when all the polls show Obama is winning, the more likely explanation is that some people are denying reality.

65 #53 Lee, I'll add to that: to see the baffled spluttering of Noonan, Buckley, Brooks, etc...

66

Yea, I seem to recall how the new demographic were supposed to win it for John Kerry. They had the same get-out-the-vote drive with acorn and MTV hip-hop artists.

Funny how everything new stays the same.

I would like to see some comparisons with past elections including acorn's role.

67

 Talk about pessimism, try being an Eagles fan.

I married one...

68 Of course, when all the polls show Obama is winning, the more likely explanation is that some people are denying reality.

If the polls reflected reality, you would be correct.  However, as the post you're replying to clearly states, the party sampling ignores historical trends in party ID. 

69

Let's remember that with 16 days to go in 2004, John Kerry was leading GWB by a greater margin than Obama leads McCain.   Also, we're seeing a tightening in the published polls, which puts McCain in a better position than GWB in 2004.

 

70

The tracking polls had Bush up by about 3 at this point in the 2004 election.  Go to www.pollingreport.com and type in 2004 tracking polls. (I'd give you the exact link, but this cite won't let me post it for some reason).

71 And you're wrong, Jason.  The late October 2004 polls showed a tightening that benefited Kerry, not Bush.  That's because a popular vote blowout rarely happens.

72 If Obama is such a damn inevitability, then why is McCain as close in the polls as he is?  McCain is about as electrifying and charismatic as Bob Dole (much as I admire and respect the man) -- yet, he's within a few points of Kid Lightning.  That alone should tell you something.

Watch the polls over the next few days.  If a few of the better known show the race essentially "tied" (within the margin of error) then the pollsters are trying to salvage what little respectability they have by trying to edge back toward the reality.

That's what this last bit of garbage is about -- create such an aura of inevitability that they win by the discouragement factor alone. The reality is that Obama wins by demoralizing enough conservatives that they simply don't bother to vote.

Maybe McCain gets slaughtered November 4th, I don't know.  But I hope every damn conservative will go to the polls just for the chance of giving Obermann a stroke.

73 an Obama official say that they are now going to go after her personally for linking Obama with Rashid Khalidi

Now?!?

74 Ace, the party trends have gotten worse for the GOP since 2006, as almost every poll since then has shown.  The only question is how much worse.

75 Ace, the party trends have gotten worse for the GOP since 2006, as almost every poll since then has shown.  The only question is how much worse.

And historically, those pre-election party affiliation polls underestimate actual GOP turnout or party ID.  Yes, things have been getting worse for the GOP, but a ten-or-fifteen point gap?

76 Kevin, try this...the last (in fact, only) time the Phillies made a World Series in a Presidential election year was 1980. They won their only title, and Reagan beat Carter.

Also, '08 is '80 reversed!

See how stupidly optimistic a Philly fan can be?

77 Of course the polls are crap. I had stats in high school and college, loved it.
But stats are like other scientific research, without something to compare it to it means nothing. Comparing the current stuff to older accurate election results shows these are out of whack. Real results showing a change is easy to see and doesn't bounce around ala Reagan-Mondale or Nixon.

Another way to know these polls are garbage is because the MSM and pollsters are already covering their asses. Politico has a story up on how they are sweating them. Why? because they know the history. Polls showing Obama up double digits in Red States are a complete joke. If Obama wins Virginia or North Carolina it will not be by more then 3 percentage points. So at least it shows a trend then you say? Bad stats are bad stats, the only thing the show is bad methodology.

I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the AA turnout either. It will increase but nothing beyond the norm. The increase in AA in the primaries is the result of AA moving from independent to Dem to vote for Obama. They aren't new voters for the most part and they voted Democratic anyway, they just weren't part of a party.

78 if anyone is interested in a well reasoned analysis of the polls. Ya know one based on actual data (all the data, not just the data he likes) try out this:

538 tracking-poll-primer

79 GOTV:

Daytime Phone Bank (10:00AM-6:00PM local time)

Evening/Weekend Phone Bank (6:00PM-9:00PM & Weekends 10:00AM-9:00PM local time)

80 Posted by: zeek at October 21, 2008 11:52 AM (pLTLS)

So an aggregation of faulty polling data is better than individual polling data?

Righto.

81 Guys, we're looking at epic pollster malpractice this year. I have never seen them so bad in over 20 years of closely observing these things. National polls are hopelessly skewed and state polls are for the most part done by incompetent firms and use much smaller samples/larger MOEs. Add a small Bradley Effect and you're talking +5 for McCain right now.

Don't forget who pays for the damn polls, either.

82 Ok.  How much money does any of you want to wager on the President election?  You take McCain, I take Obama.  Even odds. Electoral vote winner takes all.

83 I M/P pulls this out, I will be making and posting an "Oh Yes We Fucking Can" sign outside of my cubicle on that Wednesday morning, just to twist the knife in the office libs. My boss will let it stay up for a couple of hours I'm guessing. He'd fire their asses for being such insufferable twats if we didn't need their particular forms of expertise.

84 Who is John Galt?

85 You take McCain, I take Obama.  Even odds.

Dude, Intrades giving me 6.5 to 1 right now.  You'll have to offer better.

86

I also took Probability and statistics in college. At one point, we had to design a poll to measure public opinion about some esoteric issue and turn the poll in for a grade. It took some effort to make sure that the poll was balanced and properly sampled. The very next assignment was to design a fake poll that looks balanced but would return the results that we wanted. Suprisingly this was a MUCH easier assignment. I already knew the results of the poll and it was easy to tweak the questions a little to achieve the desired results. I even accurately predicted the final percentages of the poll.

Since then, I've watched a lot of polls and when the questions are shown, I 've seen many of the questions "tweaked" in one direction. I don't know whether they are doing it on purpose but the fix is there. This happens almost exclusively on non-professional polls like TV networks and newspapers. The people who make their living on polls like Rasmussen and Zogby can't afford to do fake polls.

87 rinseandspit: my take on increased early voting is that it allows the Dems to really leverage their money advantage for GOTV. If you must vote only on one day, regardless of your funding there are only so many people you can drag off their couches, take to Burger King, then take to the polls. If you have fourteen days over which to do that, you can increase your "consideration"-based efforts by fourteen times. Shitty but true.

88 As per "negative campaign ads" advice from advisers telling McCain to quit being negative, "polling results" telling McCain to quit being negative, STFU until you tell AND GET Obama to quit being negative. And that ain't gonna happen.

McCain's supporters don't actively support McCain unless McCain unleashes the truth against Obama.

And if Obama and the MSM can't take the heat, get the hell out of the kitchen before our enemies bomb the hell out of America with Obama in the Oval Office.

Geez, when Albright seconds Biden's "statement of fact" don't sweep the shit under the rug.

89

Just checked those 2004 tracking polls

TIPP, Marist, Zogby

All showed 1-3 point margins from mid October up through election day and no wild swings. Bush was up in most of them by 1 or 2, although some had Kerry up by 1 or 2  

So all in all they were pretty accurate

 

90 Rasmussen is the only one I follow.  State polls don't matter, lagging trends and all.  If Ras closes in the next week to 10 days, Mac will win.  If it stays in the 3 to 6 point range for O, Mac loses.  The trends are ok towards Mac, so I'm not overly worried about early voting.  This "polls are crap" stuff is what people say when they are behind.  If Mac were leading in the polls, we would be screaming them from the rooftops.  Ras and some others are respectable, and are not in it to elect a certain candidate, they want to be the pollsters who "nailed" the 08 election, it's good for business.

91 I know Ace is trying to get people to show up and vote GOP down the ticket, so the overall loses aren't greater, but this idea that Kerry was beating Bush at this point in 2004 (except in a few polls) is just incorrect.

92 Here is why I think McCain will still win. My home state Tennessee tends to be a bellwether state. We (Don't blame me I couldn't vote yet) we elected Carter. We elected Clinton. We elected Reagan, and Bush twice, even though this is/was former Senator Gore's home state.

All in all, we tend to vote for the winner. In fact, for a very long way excepting when JFk stole his election. So, I have a very very hard time believing that McCain is winning TN by 15%+ but losing so badly nationally.

If McCain loses, it will be a historic event that highlights a large broad shift in the political climate in the US.

93 Jim, most reader here go through the entire thread, so you really don't have to keep posting the same comment.

Thanks.

94 Jack Murtha is in one of the "slam-dunk, we'll re-elect you until you croak" districts.

And he might lose this year. In Pennsylvania. A solid blue state.

95 I used to live in Murtha's district. He's a toad who needs squashin.

96 A chance? Obama loses unless he gains a ton of ground in a hurry.

97 They really need to vote Murtha out this year.  He is a disgrace.

98 I am living in Northern Virginia.
I am praying that Virginia goes to McCain. this is almost hideous that Obama is ahead in this state.

Keep praying

99 HH and HotAir are talking about tightening polls, and internals, including supposed leaked internals.

Can someone explain why internals are able to be more accurate than non-internals?

100

Can someone explain why internals are able to be more accurate than non-internals?

I think the internals are more detailed in their findings.  I just don't understand how Obama can be so far ahead, I live in NJ, and every Hillary supporting Democrat I know can't stand Obama and are either writing in Hillary, or voting McCain.  There are a few I know of from chat that are voting Obama because of Palin's stand on the abortion issue, but most of the Pumas I know are very firm in their belief that Obama is an awful choice, and dangerous for America.

101

I never buy claims about "internal" polling

They're usually trial balloons to effect a medial cycle

102 I think the internals are more detailed in their findings.

How do "details" translate into overall better numbers?  The details might indicate who is voting for whom, but not the overall numbers, no?

103

I am living in Northern Virginia.

Welcome to my hell.

104 I think you guys will be lucky to avoid giving Obama the dreaded "M word."

Mandate.

If anything, polls under-represent Obama supporters because most polls don't reach people who don't have land-lines.  Something like a third of people 18-25 do not have a traditional phone line.  Those people will vote for Obama overwhelmingly. 

Murtha might have insulted part of Pennsylvania, but McCain's campain is insulting every person who lives in a city or suburb.  That's most of us.

105 If anything, polls under-represent Obama supporters because most polls don't reach people who don't have land-lines.

Yeah, it's tough to poll the homeless who will be dragged to the voting booths and who will vote for whatever in exchange for cigarettes and beer.

106 I don't know any young people who see a point in having two phone numbers.  Since they already have a cell phone, they don't get a land line unless they have to.  (like if they get put on Electronic Home Detention).

Oh, and thanks to our Australian Ballot (a.k.a. secret ballot) you can drag a homeless person to the polls, but for the most part you cannot verify who they vote for. 

107 Oh, Seattle, your naivete is so precious.

108 think you guys will be lucky to avoid giving Obama the dreaded "M word." Mandate.

Democrats always claim a mandate, no matter what they win by. President Clinton lost the popular vote but won by a plurality and claimed a mandate.

109 Wiserbud, your sub-par intelligence and wit are scarcely comment-worthy.

110 If anything, polls under-represent Obama supporters because most polls don't reach people who don't have land-lines.

That's why Obama under-polled in the primaries, wait, what?

111

Don't forget, dead people don't have land lines either, but are going to be voting in record numbers this year.

And I think Mickey Mouse is strictly a cell-phone user, too.

112 "I suffered through statistics. I hated that class more than Michael Moore hates George W. Bush. Statistical research methods was even worse."

It wasn't a complete waste of time for me, because I learned a valuable Latin phrase: "Purgamentum init, purgamentum exit."
I didn't necessarily learn how to spell it right, but I can pronounce the hell out of it.

113 SueM #6 "I do think this is the time for a very important kind of dose of [unintelligible]. "

"Keynesianism."  And to Barney, it IS unintelligible, com-PLETE-ly.  Anything he knows about Keynes, he read in the Econ equivalent of a Jack Chick tract.

114

I don't comment on the polls posts too often because I, too, think they're crap. The polling that truly pisses me offl however; are the polls they conduct outside of the precincts on election day.

During the Clinton-Dole election I still remember returning home (EST) and hearing that Clinton had won. It was still the middle of the friggin afternoon to the west of me and yet they had already started declaring the election for Clinton. The polls in the east hadn't even closed yet!

THAT is what pisses me off!

115

If anything, polls under-represent Obama supporters because most polls don't reach people who don't have land-lines.

Here we go with this nonsense again.  And hard-working, middle-class whites -- who always vote in significant majorities for the Republican -- have better things to do than talk to some pimple-faced phone bank operator for 20 minutes.

Guess which demographic turns out a much higher percentage of its members on election day?

But go on, Seattle -- keep pinning your hopes on Jim and Jane Bongwalker to bring it home for your corrupt clown of a candidate.  And aren't you proud that without welfare parasites, dipshit students, and menopausal View/Oprah hags your boy would be down by 20% nationally?  Yay for the least informed and least useful members of American society!

Murtha might have insulted part of Pennsylvania, but McCain's campain is insulting every person who lives in a city or suburb.  That's most of us.

Of course he is, Seattle.  I'm sure you'll be back any minute to explain these McCainian "insults" to us.  And your pretending that your leftist worldview comports in any way with the one shared by "most of us" is just precious in its ego-centric dementia.

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