1 Peggy Noonan has fired her lawn boy for failing to cut the grass in the counter-clockwise swirls that gives her home-field advantage in her gated communities croquet tournament.

Word on the street is that she dyes her grass.

2 Yeah, and the lawn don't match the garden if you know what I mean and I think you do...

3 Yeah, I'd still hit it. After a few Captain Morgans...

4 The silent majority isn't called silent for nothing.

5 The Deuce you say!

Jack M must be drinking the KoolAid.

6 Um.

This...

Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama's strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results.

Then this...

The NEP will be increasingly relying on phone polls conducted prior to Election Day to compensate for states with large portions of early voters--a technique that proved successful most recently in the Democratic primaries.

"Successful".  He keeps using that word.  I do not think it means what he thinks it means.

Qwinn

7 You're just trying to make us stay up until 4am on election night, aren't you?

I'll admit it may be worth it to see the anchors' do their best Belloq & Toht impersonations if the returns are in exact contradiction to the polling.

8

POLLS?  These are not polls, these are psy-ops against American voters conducted by the media.

9 You're just trying to make us stay up until 4am on election night, aren't you?

I'll be up at least that late.  Bitterly clinging to my religion and guns while hiding in my bunker.

10 Yeah, Allahpundit and the rest of the doomsayers can shed all the tears they want now. I'm saving myself for the laughter variety that will flow on election night as I watch the long list of pundits on TeeVee crawl through the stages of grief.

11 The bad thing about all this is that sharp contrasts between polling data and election results will be viewed as obvious signs of voter fraud, rather than obvious signs of polling fraud. 

12 Well, well well ... check this out! Looks like the O Camp is a little worried. (No linky thing?) http://tinyurl.com/6okyp9

13 I think there is a "privacy gap" and a "fear gap" at play these days.  The "privacy gap" is people like me that just don't care for the intrusiveness of pollsters.  (This is similar to your "related variable" in your article above, just quieter.)  The "fear gap" is like some people I know who are afraid that if they say the wrong thing, the pollster has their phone number and may be able to figure out who they are.

14 I wanna see Jon Stewart trying to stab himself in the eye with a pencil again. That was my favorite election results moment of 2004.

15 Catholic Church Busts ACORN's Nuts:

The Catholic Campaign for Human Development (CCHD) has suspended funding of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) following reports of embezzlement, according to CCHD executive director Ralph McCloud. The CCHD has given over $7.3 million to ACORN projects in the past decade despite concerns raised over the years by the Wanderer Forum Foundation, the Capital Research Center, and others.
The details surrounding the embezzlement that went un-prosecuted and covered-up by the Acorn senior management and founder Stephen WADE Rathke (he goes by his middle name) for 8 years are mind boggling.

Posted by: Topsecretk9 | October 20, 2008 at 01:27 PM

from Just One Minute

16 haha, Diebold rawks

17 You know, being a military wife who has voted in many states in many elections (but always in deep red districts) I have never once seen one of these "exit pollsters."  I'm beginning to think they are mystical creatures....perhaps if I put on the tie dye skirt and dreds they will materialize to ask my opinion this year?

18 12, incognito

Excellent link.  Everyone should go take a look at that.  The coverage of this election has been a total scam.

19 The big thing in my view is the party weighting. In 2004, Rasmussen used a breakdown of 39% Democrat, 35% Republican and 26% Unaffiliated.

This year he is using 40% Democrat, 33% Republican and 27% unaffiliated.

Gallup is using 37% Democrat, 28% Republican and 35% unaffiliated.

Zogby uses 38% Democrats, 36% Republican and 26% unaffiliated.

Sorry, but I do not see a 7-9% gap in party ID. That's too much and that alone is probably giving Obama 4-5 point bump in most polls.

20 (I had to close out firefox and reopen ... weird.  Now the link thingy is back.
Good thing too because I know you morons are too lazy to copy and paste.)

Well, well well ... check this out! Looks like the O Camp is a little worried.

In addition, Missouri Governor Blunt was on O'Reilly and hinted at internal polling favoring McCain.

21 well i read a headline somewhere today that was something like "overwhelming number of americans dislike spreading the wealth"...something like that. but it made me think that the optimism i'm squeezing to hold onto isn't as misplaced as i feared it was.

sherlock, i totally relate to what you said. it's an up and down i'll be really glad to leave behind on 4 nov.

22

Posted by: Roberta at October 20, 2008 10:17 PM (jqm25)

yes

23 oop, this moron didn't see what you wrote just now, i meant about the psy ops stuff.

also i forgot to say that treacher had some good advice...it really works. get the eff away from this shite for 24 hours.

24

SurveyUSA has a new VA poll out today, and it’s tightening there. Two weeks ago, Gutter Ball (LMAO-PUMA name for Obama) was +10; today +6. However, they are still undersampling Reps by 5% and oversampling Dems by 4%, so McCain is ahead there. Rasmussen has Gutter Ball +10 in VA this morning, but they never reveal their sampling demos (surprise!).

Internals must have McCain ahead in VA, because the campaign hasn’t been there since the beginning of last week, and have made stop after stop after stop in PA.

25 21 -- HotAir has a link to a Gallup article showing overwhelming disapproval, among Dems and Reps, for wealth redistribution.

26 There's also this meme being spread by CNN that McCain is abandoning Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico in order to try and win PA. That strikes me as absurd. Why would Palin do three rallies in Colorado only to yank all the resources out of there? I suspect that polling in CO is much closer than it shows. Rasmussen had Obama up by 7 last week and this week it's 5, with more Obama voters saying they'd change their minds than McCain voters. Again, I also think Rasmussen's ID weighting is off.

27

I voted today and it took nearly three hours. It's one of the few times I don't really mind a long line because it means people are participating. Makes me feels all American and proud and stuff.

I always vote early. Is that why I've never encountered a pollster? Is it that or the fact I generally live in areas that are heavily millitary and thus tend to swing red?

28

I do remember that delicious night in 2004 when exit polls showing Kerry winning totally collapsed, and the ensuing liberal panic that turned to horror...

Do we dare hope for a repeat?

29 I hope on election day that people vote before they turn the tv on, because you know the damn MSM will be doing everything possible to try to convince people that it's over so they might as well stay home.

30 Politico makes me want to walk through a furnace in a gasoline suit. 

31 Hey, Noonan can't have a lawn boy, since she doesn't know what a lawn is. Remember, she lives in Brooklyn Heights and works in Manhattan.

She's the same one who loathed Nancy Reagan and wrote that shrill screed against Hillary Clinton. Noonan did write a wonderful book on John Paul II. Question to Noonan: Who do you think would be closer to JP II's views on life and culture: Obama or Palin?

It seems that Noonan has problem with strong women. Apparently, so did her ex-husband, who she was married to him for fewer years than Palin was mayor of Wasilla. Ouch!

32 Yes, Jones/CO, we do.

Jay:  That's a fucking lie, spread by the MSM. 

Hey, Ahnold is going to campaign with McCain in Ohio!  I guess, better late than never!

Schwarzenegger, aides say, will join McCain in Columbus, Ohio, on Halloween to rally voters. Columbus, as close Arnold-watchers know, is home to the annual Arnold Classic International Fitness Weekend, a major event in the body-building world each spring.

33 The reason? Obama’s supporters were younger, better educated and often more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton's, meaning they were more likely to participate in exit polls.

Plus don't forget the caller id/cell phone only household factor.  I do not answer the phone if I don't know the number.  So there's almost no way that I'll ever be selected for a poll.  The number of people doing that is increasingly daily which means that the poll samples are suffering from selection bias in the first place.

34 Polls, schmolls. Although I am concerned it may have some of its desired effect of despressing McCain voters and lessening the chances of them voting.

runninrebel - that's why I'll be watching! Isn't there a book? Someone should send a copy to Olby to help him prepare...

35 Hey, you know what often overstates Obama's support?

assholes

36 I do not answer the phone if I don't know the number.  So there's almost no way that I'll ever be selected for a poll.

Yeah, this is what most people I know say - telemarketers have screwed up the polling business, I would think. The only reason I answered the phone when I was polled is that it was done by the city newspaper, and their name came up in the caller ID. Who is so lame that they answer the phone for anyone who calls?

37 "Obama’s supporters were younger, better educated and often more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton's, meaning they were more likely to participate in exit polls."

"Better educated," eh?  More educated, maybe, but better?  I think not.

38 Place your bets at Intrade, I have 100 shares of Mac at 25, which will net me $750 if he wins.

39 Who is so lame that they answer the phone for anyone who calls?

You mean besides Ace?

40 Peggy Noonan wrote some good speaches in the day.  And I allways thought she was hot looking by her little picture in th WSJ.  Then I saw her on TV, and now I can never go back to whacking to that WSJ pic again.  I should have known, even Hillary! looks kind of okay in the WSJ.

41 Thomas Aquinas,

Yeah, I know Noonan is an Urban Dweller, but the thought of somebody screwing with their yard to gain an unfair advantage in croquet made me giggle like a schoolgirl on nitrous (AoS Dating Tip #16) so I went with it anyway.

42

Posted by: Dr. Remulak at October 20, 2008 10:59 PM (2IdE2)

do they really pay if you win?

43 "I'm saving myself for the laughter variety that will flow on election night as I watch the long list of pundits on TeeVee crawl through the stages of grief."

Twenty bucks says they try to call Florida early.  Again.

"I think there is a "privacy gap" and a "fear gap" at play these days."

Don't forget the "job" gap.

44 OT, but ABC's Tapper @politcal punch is up to their old tricks.  Comments are being deleted right and left over there.  Good ol' liberals.

45

Hola my fellow Americans/comrades, 

Ah, jess...the polls. It work berry well in my country. My team of comrades/aka/community organizers were diligent...unjeelding, and most of all...obedient to me...their messiah.  

If a vote was cast by the blind, the frail, the mentally challenged... for that other candidate (who expected to be exterminated at any moment), that ballot was thrown away, replaced by a correct, patriotic vote. And to make sure the world knew the berry strict Democratic/Communist standards, we, as a Banana Republic enjoy, I personally ask  fellow comrade, Jimmy Carter, to validate the election.

Comrade Carter say my election was the perfect election...I agree.

Welcome to your new Socialist world, my comrades.

Have a banana.

Bienvenidos al mundo perfecto.

Atentamente,

Hugo Chavez, Assistant Messiah.

  

46 Everytime you read these liberal wretched news papers and news magazines their always supporting this OBAMA wacko not surprising since their mosly demacreep supporters

47 If Politico were on fire, I wouldn't piss on it to put it out even with Michelle Obama's dick.

48 "The bad thing about all this is that sharp contrasts between polling data and election results will be viewed as obvious signs of voter fraud, rather than obvious signs of polling fraud."

Actually, it will be viewed as another attack on "democracy" by The Architect.

Meanwhile, back in the Acecave...  "KRYMB!!! BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!"

49 Well, it's about f'in TIME the CCHD stopped supporting ACORN.
The CCHD is nothing more than a leftist money machine.
They support all kinds of evil, including, at one time, Planned Freaking Parenthood.
Remember, this is a "Catholic" organization.
They are USING the name "Catholic" to get unsuspecting churchgoers to open their wallets, never knowing that their money is going to support shit to which they are morally and oftentimes politically opposed.
At my particular parish, on the Sunday before (or after - whichever) Thanksgiving when the Archdiocese instructs that the CCHD will be the beneficiary of the second collection, the ushers SPRINT down the aisles. You couldn't give if you wanted to. I will NEVER give these leftards a dime, and I try to get the word out to other Catholics, too.

50

Today's ABC News/WaPo poll even acknowledged that the Dem/Republican "poll enthusiasm" gap might be skewing results:

http://tinyurl.com/6cle4s 

"Much of Obama’s advantage lies in greater-than-usual participation by Democrats; they outnumber Republicans by 7 percentage points among likely voters in this poll, as they have consistently this season. In 2004, by contrast, Democrats and Republicans turned out in equal numbers. Obama’s lead depends in large part on a larger-than-usual differential between Democrats and Republicans."

 

51 Interested Parties:

Here's an article about how the CCHD helped put Obama in power here in Chicago:

http://tinyurl.com/cchdtruth

52 Funky chicken, I won $300 on Bush 4 years ago, on TradeSports (very similar to Intrade). They sent me a check, got it a week after the election.

53 Hey morons

Allah has this article linked on his site. I thought he had lost it when I saw it was a LDS site. But after I read it effing brilliant!

http://tinylink.com/?iOrtdecaYk

54 The good thing about a McCain victory would be watching the Democrats eat their fucking young.  The bad thing would be watching Obama's, uh, "base" riot in the streets.  The really bad thing will be having to fight McCain tooth and nail over immigration & global warming for the next four years.  But that's still better than the alternative.

55 Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results.

In 2004, had I the extra money, I could have cleaned up on Election day, we're talking $10000 easy...the early, wrong exit polls sent Bush into single digits. (Buy low, sell high). Alas, I settled for $300 and months of Schadenfreude.

56 They're also not considering, to put it bluntly, the "I like to fuck with exit pollsters" factor.  Which I strongly encourage, because I like to see the enraged left when the exit polls don't match the actual results.

57

Sad... have met some fine conservs over at Politico over the years.

Now just screaming libtards.

O off to Hawaii to visit granny! Whatsup?? Anybody?

58

I attended the McCain rally in Belton, MO (KC Area) this afternoon. Not a huge crowd. Estimates say about 7000 in attendance, but it was an enthusiastic crowd. Not just going through the motions. I was surprised by the large number of relatively young people in attendance. Lots of 20-somethings and high-schoolers. These are the folks that have supposedly all fallen for the Messiah.

A small group of about 25 Obama supporters did their best to disrupt with chants from the other side of the fence, but it was a rather lame effort.

With one minor exception, everyone seemed to behave themselves. One of the McCain supporters, a 50-something female, decided to moon the Obama folks stationed across the street as the shuttle bus we were on passed them. I am not sure if that is considered racist hate or not. It was funny though.

If this campaign is over, sombody forgot to inform the suburban Joe's. We are still here and still fighting

59 50-Operation Chaos

60 Yea, I answer all calls.  You can have so much fun jackin with them. When they hang up they don't know who they called and were damn glad to get away from me.

61 #57 - two days ago a lawsuit was filed in Hawaii about his birth certificate...I read somewhere.  S'ppose ol' typical white gramma is dying, and he has to drag her out from under the bus?  or is he stifling information about something?

62 OT: A question to ask a moonbat if you're so inclined: who was a better president, Jefferson or Bush 43?

Next question:

Which US president shredded the US Constitution, tanked the economy with ill-advised policies and helped get us involved in an unwinnable war?

A: Thomas Jefferson

The Louisiana Purchase was unconstitutional, The Embargo Act tanked our economy and we eventually marched up to Canada mistakenly believing that the Quebecois would greet us with flowers as liberators.

Bush, on the other hand, tried to reform Fannie and Freddie and succeeded in Iraq. 

63 Place your bets at Intrade, I have 100 shares of Mac at 25, which will net me $750 if he wins.

I think you have to either mean you have 10 shares (and paid $250 for them), or that you have 100 shares you paid $2500 for, and you'd win $7500, no?

Qwinn

64 The exit polls in 2004 were extra fucked because the Tards were texting each other the precincts that were being polled and they'd go flood the zone. They'd show up, walk in, hang out for a few minutes and then come out and say they voted for Kerry.

65

Posted by: Espkc at October 20, 2008 11:34 PM (ZFUFj)

I grew up around there.  glad to hear there's still some feisty gals around  LOL

just introduced the kids to Smokestack BBQ last summer.  yummmmm

66 regarding "Anyway, make of this what you will. An average error of 7 points for the One is amazingly high, though, given that usually the margin of error is around 3.5%." Isn't the margin of error +/- ? so a +/-3.5 percent margin could translate into a 7 point difference?

67 it'll be a major pain in the arse to battle mccain on immigration and global warming but at least our constitutional rights will still be intact and we won't get pushed out to sea on an ice floe for the crime of telling him he's wrong. 

the riots fatima ali and others promised us in the event of a mccain victory--how long does anybody think they will last and how bad will they get?

68

Another thing that's often forgotten: the Republicans have the score on the board. McCain just needs to hold on to the states from 2004, Obama needs to flip states. McCain  can afford a 'draw', even a small 'loss' of a small state. Obama needs a clear win.

Obama can narrow the margins in red states as much as he likes, and he can rack up massive majorities in the blue states, but unless he flips 1 big or 2-3 small states, he loses. All the pressure is on him. McCain, if worst came to worst, can just defend what he's got.

And the fact that McCain still seems to be going after a few blue states instead of playing total defense is very encouraging.

 

69 5th Level: Obots will riot if BO wins or loses.

70 #67

I'm going to take a wild stab and say double the LA Riots of '92.  6x2=12 days.

71 Doh! Yeah, 10 shares. We Joe the Plumber types don't have $2500 lying around.

72

#67...Bad if it comes to that.

3rd Infantry back from Iraq to take our guns...UN blue helmuts here to help the Canadian Army round us up and rape our women. FEMA camps set up. At least 2 per state. All ready to go when 43 presses THAT button.

73 Dr., Qwinn

Intrade shares are rated 0-100 and cost $0-10 each, so each percentile is 10 cents, so Dr.'s first number was right.  I have 36 shares each of McCain and Republican Nominee wins (the latter was significantly cheaper).

I have high hopes, but I got slaughtered on the Dow end of day result today.

74 I bought 10 shares of Mac at 25=$250 investment

If Mac wins, he closes at 100. 100-25=75, x 10=$750

Minus the commission.

I hate math sometimes. This is why I don't usually gamble!

75 I *cough* know someone who has *cough* mortaged their soul, borrowed against their 401k, and has put a whole lot of money on McCain.

Like, a bit over $3,000.

*cough* He *cough* is waiting for the money to arrive (sent the wire transfer Friday).  If he can get it for what it's running at right now (about 15.5), I... *cough*, I mean he *cough* stand to make.

Um.

$16,800.

No one -dare- call me an eeyore.

Qwinn

76 I mean don't call -him- an eeyore.  Yeah.  That's it.  I would never call him an eeyore.  Nope.  He's got the strength of his "the polls are bullshit" convictions, he does.

Qwinn

77 The polls are wrong

look how much McCain supporters get harrassed and boycotted.

we keep quiet or we LIE when someone asks us

period

78 If an "enthusiasm gap" is responsible for skewing exit polls, why isn't an "enthusiasm gap" responsible for skewing pre-election day polling?

It could be. The trouble is, it's not measurable so we will never know.

The problem is low response rate, which -- by the way -- is rarely reported for public opinion polling. Telephone polls have response rates (the portion of the sample that actually completes the survey) less than 10%, sometimes as low as 4-5%. That means that at least 90% of the individuals sampled choose not to respond. Why didn't they respond? We will never know, because they did not respond.

The statistical validity of polling relies on the reduction of systematic error. In the case of the exit polls, that is selection bias; there is a systematic difference among the people that choose to take surveys after leaving a voting booth, related to their enthusiam for their candidate. In the case of telephone polls, could a similar difference be found among people who choose to refuse/ignore telephone surveys? Maybe. When over 90% of your sample is unknown, that opens the door for all sorts of unknown error. Telephone polling does not deserve the predictive authority that it is given.

79 An average error of 7 points for the One is amazingly high, though, given that usually the margin of error is around 3.5%." Isn't the margin of error +/- ? so a +/-3.5 percent margin could translate into a 7 point difference?

Yes. A lot of people mistakenly assume the margin of error comes off one side. IE, if Obama is shown winning 50-43, they assume the error might mean that Obama might only be leading 47-43, but the margin works in both directions. IE, Obama could be winning 53-40 or it could actually be tied 47-47 when you apply the margin of error in the opposite direction. Add in that they are oversampling Democrats in polls this year (save for Zogby, so his poll today showing Obama ahead 50-42 is troublesome, but that is likely temporary as it is probably part of the Powell effect) and things are a lot closer than they appear.

If you look at the primaries, in many of the swing states, pollsters routinely underestimated Hillary's margin of victory. In PA, they had her winning by 4%. She won by nearly 10%. Indiana, they had the race basically tied. She won by 5%. In Ohio they had her up by 7% and she won by 10%. In New Hampshire, they had Obama up by 3%, and Hillary won by 8%. Polls had Obama ahead in California and Clinton won by 10%. In fact, in most of the races I looked at, pollsters on average consistently were off Hillary's margin of victory by at LEAST three percentage points.

Granted, pollsters also underestimated Obama's margin of victory in some states, but those were races where it wasn't even close (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina) so it didn't matter anyway.

Those swing states are where it is truly important to pay attention. Look where the candidates are going. Why the hell was Joe Biden in Washington? That state should be a lock. Democrats are extremely nervous about Pennsylvania. That's why the MSM is trying to make it seem as though McCain is abandoning Colorado and New Mexico when he isn't.

Everybody needs to keep their chins up. For the next two weeks we're going to have the media breathlessly telling us every day how Obama's pretty much got this race locked up. McCain has changed the dynamic with this tax issue and he needs to pound on that every day. Tell your friends. Tell co-workers. Ask them if they remember the last time a Democrat promised to cut taxes for the middle class and what happened. Remind them a President Obama is not going to veto a huge tax increase that a Democratic majority in Congress will give to him.

We can do this, but it's going to take people doing a little work and a lot less whining.

80 Qwinn, if I had the guts (and the scratch), I'd be right there with you.

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