1 I'm so damned whip-sawed with the bloody polls. All I hope we ride the Joe the Plumber wave all the way through November 4th.

Please, dear Lord, don't let the Commies steal this thing...

2 Starting to feel some optimism here.

3 I want to believe, but it harshes my grim determination and undercuts my planned martyrdom.

4

There is the belief of certain arcane religious sects, that if the MSM ever discovers a truth, and publishes it, the universe will be rent asunder, the Pillars of Heaven will shatter, Michigan will be ranked #1 or #2 and make the BCS Championship, and Helen Thomas will look like Annette Bening. As any one of these items would render logic a nullity, it is better to take no chances. Fortunately, they never do.

 

5 I just keep repeating Bradley Effect, Bradley Effect, Bradley Effect over and over.  Helps me fall asleep............

6 The debate hurt Obama more than anyone will let on.  He looked shifty.

All politicians have an evil caricature in the public eye, and if they ever confirm it by actions, it's poison. 

McCain's weakness is looking angry.  He wasn't angry in any of the debates.

BO's weakness is arrogant smugness and smooth talking.  The public got a glimpse of the SMOOV One in the last debate and are moving away from him.  He's lost the trust that he had by evading questions.

7 3) They can't believe the poll. Like they can't believe Joe or Sarah.

8 Y'know, I might be stupid (meh, more like dumb) but the AOL straw polls (stop that laughter) have consistently had McCain whopping Obomber's ass week after week. And AOL ain't exactly known to be conservative-friendly.

Maybe there is something to this. I hope.....

9 Exit question: Will polls indicating that this election is already over suppress more overconfident Dems or more depressed Repubs?

10 Typical media BS... Anything that they like is news.  Anything proving otherwise is either not news or an accidental omission.


The numbers that Eeyore-pundit had from the poll internals showed a breakdown of respondents as follows: Dems at 40%, Republicans at 27%, Independents at 21%, and some other party / None of the above at 12%.

Even with numbers that lopsided, Barry's *still* only getting around 44%.



IMHO, these organizations are cooking the polls and the internals of this one show Barry in a LOT more trouble than anyone in the media or from Barry's camp is letting on.

11 they simply know that once u factor in the ACORN vote it's a landslide for obama.

12 Orgasm count: =/- 12

13 I will be in SF on election day, and the day after.  There may be more jumpers from the Golden Gate Bridge than usual if this does not go "according to plan."

14 The Bradley effect maybeenough to barely offset the fraudulent votes.

15

Man, I would hate to be one of the stat monkeys that worked these numbers.  Imagine trying to explain/spin the poor results for Obama to your pissed off Masters.

16 I hear Tina Fey just locked herself in her closet and started chanting "Take me to a happy place."

17 #9
Here is my take: Republican voters take the right to vote very seriously and will show up at the polls no matter what the media or elites tell us. The more this ACORN crap keeps up and the more they keep attacking Joe the Plumber, the more likely I am the knock people over just to cast my vote. I think this thing is turning and the backlash could be ugly.

18 Did you guys notice the one debate where Obama looked really out of his league, Rick warren's, was moderated by a right leaning commentator? Could it be that the political sensabilities of the moderator do effect the debate?

I know this is obvious but maybe it would make sense to demand a Brit Hume type next time. The term biased media is redundant.
Come on Mac and pull out the win.

19 The close polls are moot. When Colin Powell endorses CJ on MTP Sunday there will ensue a 2-week MSM/leftoid orgasm that will leave us knee-deep in jizz.

Just picture the General campaigning side-by-side with CJ every fucking day from Sunday until election day and tell me if that's good for us.

We are well and truly fucked.

20

McCain just picked up the ENTIRE hispanic bloc today in Florida when he said:

McCain also offered some red meat to the Miami crowd, saying, "When I'm president, I won't meet unconditionally with the Castro brothers."

"The day is coming when Cuba will be free," he said, to a roar.

Cannot get the tinyurl, so here is the address:

voices.washingtonpost (dot) com/the-trail/2008/10/17/mccain_stands_up_for_joe (dot) html

 

21 Malkin gets an email:


About 11 or 12 years ago, I was the foreman for a small blacktop company in Delaware. ( I still live in Delaware today) We paved good ole’ Joe the Senator’s driveway. At the time Joe explained he couldn’t afford it, so we worked out a payment plan. He was supposed to pay us 6k down then 1k a month for the next six months.

He paid the down payment (cost of materials) but Joe never made a single payment. After about 6 or 7 months, we finally got a lawyer and threatened to take him to court. He finally got his brother to pay us the money he owed. I don’t believe we ever got the interest we asked for.

Because of size of the company (about 5 of us) I never got my vacation pay that summer!

True story!

I ended my blacktop career in 99, but I’ll never forget this.

22

And Barry is in VA scaring the elderly about McCain Medicare "cuts"-huh?

Hmmm....not exactly something you do unless the boat has sprung a leak.

23 Interesting article from a polster/debate analyzer that does not get published when it is pro McCain, but does when pro Obama.


http://tinylink.com/?0m67WsjMhL

24 Those that live by the poll, shall die by the poll.

25 Note to #21 - We are talking about Joe the cheap bastard who made millions and gave $369/year to charity..'nuff said.

26 Obama may soon start having as many "Glorious victories" as Al-Sadr has.

27 20,

I think that only picks up the Cuban bloc, which is traditionally Republican anyway.  I don't know what help that is with Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, or Hispanics of other origins.

28 that is crazy good delicious news.  But can it be trusted?  Are we so beat down as interested observers of this election, that we can't trust good news?

29 21, 25,

You know, I'm sure Biden's tighter than a flea's asshole, but what he claims as charity for deduction purposes is not necessarily what he gives to charity.  I don't claim every thin dime I give to the Church.  There is a valid scriptural reason for that, too.  So while Joe the Senator is pond scum, I'm not going to question his charitable giving without more evidence that just his tax return.

30 Ace,  three things:

You must by now seen Zombie's very long, very smart essay, The Left's Big Blunder?   It's  a great discussion of the way the Media and the Obama-nauts are dicking themselves over with their polling errors.

Then check out Ann Coulter today.  She notes that every single time the polls have been wrong in the past 40 years, the error has been in the Democrat's favor.  My favorite part:

In 1984, Reagan walloped Walter Mondale 58.8 percent to 40 percent, -- the largest electoral landslide in U.S. history. But on Oct. 15, The New York Daily News published a poll showing Mondale with only a 4-point deficit to Reagan, 45 percent to 41 percent.

Finally, check out Riehl discussing the Politico's bewilderment as to why McCain is still campaigning hard in Iowa and Pennsylvania.  McCain's internals are telling him something that these skewed state polls are are missing

31 I hope someone can help me out concerning this:  I was in the car yesterday listening to the news at the top of the hour before Hannity or during Rush - and the anchor did say something like "Obama needs only 6 electoral votes left to win the election" - Did I miss the election?  I am so tired of the liberal media.  Did anyone else hear this?

32 When Colin Powell endorses CJ on MTP Sunday there will ensue a 2-week MSM/leftoid orgasm that will leave us knee-deep in jizz.

Colin Powell = Just more of the same of the last 8 years of Bush. See? It's so easy anyone can do it.

33 Everything is Awesome!

34 This might turn out the way that I thought, with McCain inching closer and having momentum going into election day. Of course, I thought that Brunner might be forced to do her fucking job, so my analysis might fail because of that.

35 ace you need to add this to the summary:

For those keeping score at home

44.4% Democrats
30.0% Republicans
25.4% Independants

They assume almost half the voting population is Dems and they can't get to 50%. 

36

McCain's basing his electoral vote win on flipping Pennsylvania. That's his big gamble. He'll also need Florida, Ohio, etc., but he's putting his biggest pile of chips on PA. He might get it done, too.

37 There may be more jumpers from the Golden Gate Bridge than usual if this does not go "according to plan."

The city probably anticipated a rain of Obamabots if Barry is not selected:

http://tinyurl.com/64rog8

38

is colin powell really endorsing Senator Government?

Oh well it is the economy right? Powell is not going to win conservatives. He never was a conservative. He is the guy who sold the iraq war. That should be the talking point. Senator Government detests the war but now thinks he is awesome because one of the main guys involved endorses him.

I really do not care. It will make the angry left happy or maybe weary? Powell lost a bit of sparkle from the Bush years. Not to mention after he left he said he made a mistake. Why didn't he not go through with it and fight against the war then?

They can march out all of the liberal republicans they want. We are going to win.

That poll has 13% more dems than pubs. McCain wins if he pulls dems like that.

39

You know, while everyone was pissing and moaning about John McCain's debate strategy, he sucker punched Uhhbama so effectively that most of us weren't even aware of it.

'Ol Barry had his hands up ready to defend the Ayers/Acorn combo when out of nowhere Johnny Mac hit him in the crotch with Joe the Plumber's pipe wrench.

Total game changer.

 

40 Suckers!

41

Let's hope the AP continues to bleed customers exercising the "2 year and we're gone" option.

42

I think he is assuming the traditionally red states will come home, correctly in my opinion.  NC, FL, MO, IN should not be a problem.  I think it does come down to MN, WI, OH, PA, IA, CO, NM, NH.  If that is the battleground, it's basically 4 Kerry states to 4 Bush states.  Mac may not win by the same margins Bush won, and O will probably win the Kerry states w/ bigger margins, but it is not the wide map that the dems are claiming. 

Or Mac could lose 40 states.  What the hell do I know.

43 TexAg'78 at October 17, 2008 04:03 PM (bFuDu):

Yes, I heard it too on WABC NY and I thought, "Somebody's trying to bring _{my head down....}"

44 Colin Powell's fairy godmother promised him he could be an authentic black man if he endorsed Obama.

45

18: You have a point about the moderator.  Casting partisanship aside for a moment, I think we would all benefit from a debate format where both candidates are grilled by overtly-hostile advocates.  But if you make the GOP candidate face an acknowledged Dem partisan while forcing the Dem to face one of our hacks, then I think you'll see some stuff.  Yes, I know, we already get the "grill the GOP candidate" in our present system, but let's just remove the veil of objectivity.

If we believe the trial lawyers, a hostile cross-examination is the greatest tool we have to discovering the truth. 

46

Uh, #44 - not in bounds.

47

Remember that Obutthole always polled 8-10 points higher than his actual votes in the primaries.

Missouri is the ultimate bellwether state. It's gone to the winner in every election but one since 1901.

 

48 It's gone to the winner in every election but one since 1901.

. In the one case where it didn't pick the winner, it barely went for Stevenson, from neighboring Illinois.

49
47 ...
Missouri is the ultimate bellwether state. It's gone to the winner in every election but one since 1901.

Exactly, and recently the polls in MO are leaning towards McCain.  Though, I don't know if that's significant or anything.  Yet.

50 Bullshit, Dave Ross.

Chapelle even has questioned the blackness of Powell.  It is MORE than appropriate to see this as some type of self-authentication move by Powell.  I've long thought Powell a tool, even as CJC.  THis proves his weak sisterness

51 I actually think that McCain will win in the Electoral College Vote, but lose the national popular vote (because of high levels of turnout in the high-population-density blue states).

But it does not matter how many votes Obama won California by, it will be by how many votes he loses Ohio that will have the Kostards slitting their collective (and metaphorical) wrists.

52 #50 moronizer - That's a defensible proposition, and you managed to make it without snark. Unlike #44.

53

topsecretk9

I used to be a hot tar roofer, yeah, I remember that day.....-mitch hedberg

54

#51 Drumwaster - My nightmare -

McCain then steps aside "for the good of the country". He gets to be TIME magazine's Man of the Year, maybe even a Nobel Peace laureate. Then he spends his retirement speaking up on behalf of undocumented workers and against carbon dioxide.

55 ... but I'm a kook who voted for Paul in my primary, so ignore me

56 Speaking of "The One Who Spreads the Wealth"  please see this... tooo funny and right on target!!! OBAMAS WEALTH SPREAD lolz

http://www.thepeoplescube.com/red/viewtopic.php?t=2417

57 About that AP poll:  I have "AP Top Headlines" at the top of my Yahoo home page.  This morning, the headline was "Voters Souring On McCain; Obama Holds Steady".

???????

When the latest AP poll shows McCain within 2 with likely voters?

No, there's no slant there.

But then, those AP headlines might as well be written by Keith Olbermann.  Always, always written to put the GOP in the worst possible light.

58 It seems to me that Obama is standing with a huge hole in his foot, wondering who it was that handed him the 12 gauge shot gun.

With everything that's gone wrong that's been laid at the feet of the Republicans, and McCain's oddly managed campaign, the One should be about 25 points ahead at this point, and McCain should have given his concession speech at the last debate...

Oh, and the obligatory I AM JOE THE PLUMBER!

59 Here's Jack: "The poll - the poll was so bad - "

Audience: "HOW - BAD - WAS - IT?"

"Even Stinky Esposito couldn't come up with enough crap to cover it up"

Seriously, this is a very lame "is it...or COULD IT BE" effort, even for you.

Okay, all the lefty poll nerds are trashing it, but 538.nate is The Man this year, and he's putting a suit on it and sending it out to work at McDonald's.

60

That's a defensible proposition, and you managed to make it without snark.

Yessir!  We can't have any snark.  *Especially* not at a blog such as this.

Heh.

61

I've been pretty uncertain over the polls, but I just got a bit of cheering up from our mailman, of all people.  He's a big Democrat, was the head of the union at one time, would have voted for Hillary, has never voted Republican, but says he's voting for McCain.  He's the kind of guy who stops and talks to everyone - everyone knows him around here.  He says only the 'dumbass college kids' are voting for Obama.  Nobody knows who Obama is and he's been linked to too many bad people in his past.  He thinks the way they've treated Sarah Palin is 'shitty' because she's a 'hard-working, smart lady'.  He would have voted for Obama if he'd chosen Hillary for his running mate, but Joe Biden is the worst choice Obama could have made.    He doesn't like McCain, but he's the lesser of two evils.

Also, my husband just drove back from Minnisota and said he saw hardly any Obama signs/bumperstickers - and lots of McCain/Palin.  He said the only Obama sticker he saw was on a junky car that was practically duct taped together.

62

You know, we have to start acknowleging that things are looking up.  Many of us are inclined toward pessimism either by temprament, but we have to be careful we don't abet the strategy of the Dems / MSM (birm) by it. If we go into November 4 without ever having expressed the opinion that our guy can win, we are just helping the Dems / MSM (birm) make the case that McCain "stole" the election!

Let's show some positivism!  And if you haven't read the article linked in #30 above, go there and read it, and send a link to a friend.  It is the most thought-provoking (and positive) article about the current state of the polls and the election that I have read.

63 No time for complacency, guys.  Sign up to GOTV, either in person or by phone (e.g. that Colorado thing this Saturday -- see post below).

64 AP lost another client today.  All this out of control Obama bias is because most of the staff figure they're going to lose their jobs anyways.

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