1 Tell 'em you voted Whig because you just don't trust those Know-Nothings.

2 But but Obama's planning his BIG party. Movie stars and everything!

3 [The fear of being labeled a racist by a judgmental stranger may be responsible for Democrats' consistent underperformance at the polling booth as compared to the polls.]

I read a piece yesterday that talked about this. That the Bradley Effect does not arise from racism (i.e. I'm not voting for Candidate X because they're black) but rather from *the fear of being labeled racist* (I'll tell them I'm voting for X now so I'm not racist but change to Y in the safety of the booth).

4 "For people to lie, there generally has to be a stigma attached to telling the truth," said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. "There is none affiliated with saying, 'I'm voting for Hillary' or 'I'm voting for McCain.' "

I swear, social scientists are some of the stupidest people alive.  When I hear a social scientist, I feel like the quiz show moderator in Billy Madison.

5 "Obama will do better than likely voter models suggest"

Ace, as I told you, you're wrong.  That "conservative" likely model they're using has a huge fudge factor built in -- 60% turnout, which hasn't even been *approached* in 40 years.

And there's no fucking way it goes anywhere near to the 67% turnout the hopeychangey model assumes.

6 Must. Not. Splice. Chapelle's. Cokehead. Segment. With. Audio. From. Barack's. Memoir.

7 I usually substitute a non-committal "oh yeah?" when a liberal is shoving his politics in my face, but otherwise, my political conversations sound a lot like yours, Ace.

8
I'm going with the refusal to participate.  A lot of conservatives don't have time for this shit you know with all the changing of diapers and trailer tires, beating the help, and handling of snakes.  The ones who do participate are the ones mostly like to fuck with the pollster - a mild-mannered way of fighting the power.

9

"The fear of being labeled a racist by a judgmental stranger may be responsible for Democrats' consistent underperformance at the polling booth as compared to the polls."

A few months back, I was chatting up a hippie chick I know, she's a lefty, but dumb, and she asked me if I were voting for Neobama...

I told her no.

She said: "Because he's BLACK!"

I said: "No, he's a Communist."

Her eyes blasted out of her head, she slammed the table and stormed away...

LOL

10 interesting point about a presidental candidate who sniffs cocaine there, dave. wonder if he still feels the same way. doubt it.

11 Don't ever end a sentence with talking about screwing someone and then begin the next with "Ann Coulter". Evuh.

12 Gee, Ace, I told you getting some sleep would help. You must have recharged the old neurotransmitters.

13 "Poorer, less-educated whites don't like to do these polls as much as better-educated people do," he said. "The refusals come from the same class of people who tend to be the most racially intolerant."

I call this the Fucking Leave Me Alone effect and I have been saying it for years. It has nothing to do with wealth or education either. We wouldn't have a National No Call List if it did. People don't like to talk about personal shit on  the phone with strangers, especially not in an age where it could be on Youtube 5 minutes after you hang up.These people tend to be conservative to libertarian by nature, so conservatives/libertarians are underrepresented in polls. Hell with Caller ID they don't even have to pick up the phone any more.

14 I won't lie about my political beliefs, but I do try to avoid the conversation.

I was taught that the subjects of politics and religion are supposed to be avoided in mixed company, but I guess manners are for the little people.

Man, it gets old.  I would never dream of going up to a stranger, demanding that they tell me their political beliefs, and then insulting them for it.  But liberals do this crap all the time.  I hate it.

15 christoph,

all this said, I think the subprime crisis is a killer and we will lose unless we drill it into the public's mind that frank, dodd, and obama are responsible for this.

You're a Canadian.  you're partly insulated from the American economy.  We're not.   You can sit there only looking at abstract political principles.  we cannot.  This issue is a killer and the winner will be whoever successfully blames the other side for it.

Period.

Bradley effect or not -- so, Obama wins by 2 instead of by 6.   A win's a win.

16 Let's just all tell pollsters that we'll write in Alan Keyes' name. He was a solid conservative (until he started talking about slavery reparations) and nobody can call you a racist if your expressed preference is darker-skinned than his opponent.

17 Your not going to find a McCain bumper sticker on my car even though I am voting for the guy and want to support him.

Why? Because I am not interested in having to replace six windows and four tire. That is not exactly how I wish to support the economy.

Not exactly Bradley effect, but certainly acting in fear of what someone on the left might do in response.

18

Boy, that Chapelle stuff has some serious hypocrisy goin' on.

The cocaine stuff? I'm sure he feels different now.

What a douche.

19 There is going to be some party if Obama loses.  Better lock your car in the garage that night.

20 Pace yourself boss, you're on fire

21 I'm betting that Chapell's "no cocaine history" presidential litmus test got tossed out the window about 12 months ago.

22

"For people to lie, there generally has to be a stigma attached to telling the truth," said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. "There is none affiliated with saying, 'I'm voting for Hillary' or 'I'm voting for McCain.' "

I hope no one was standing in front of him when he said that.  They'd have been killed by being impaled on his nose as it grew 20 feet in a second.

23 Ace, there's no way we're going to see 60%+ turnout

24 I feel like the quiz show moderator in Billy Madison.

Jim Downey for the win.  That's him playing the moderator.

We are all now dumber for having been forced to listen to that answer.  May god have mercy on your soul.

25 I experienced this today in early voting at the mall.  I got one of those dorky "I Voted" stickers and immediately took it off for fear of someone asking me how I voted and having to get into a discussion with them about it.  Same reason I don't put a McCain sticker on my car or sign on my lawn.  Who wants the hassle of pissing off crazy liberals?  Or even just irritating the reasonable ones that live near me (who all have Obama signs on their yards). 

26 to 6:  Do it Cuffy! Please do it. That would be fucking priceless.

27 Posted by: ace at October 16, 2008 04:08 PM (1WR4H)

And if we want to see those ads run, we need to pay for it to happen.

LOOK AT THE FRONT PAGE of rightchange.com

http://www.rightchange.com/

I don't know if they are going to pull the bailout part of the ad or not, but it's just killer.

It's our turn to put our money where our mouths are.

28 Ace, consider this as to a Bradley Effect.

Limbaugh today told a story about a focus group being done for the GOP featuring subjects that gave every point to McCain over Obama-- trust, competence, etc.-- but practically everyone said they would still vote Obama. 

When Rush told this story, it was puzzling, but, if there is such a thing as a Bradley Effect, maybe not. 

29

You know what's awesome? That Ace wrote a smart piece on this. That's awesomely awesome.

Look, I have a circle of friends in Upstate New York. These folks are all blue-collar Democrats from birth. A couple of veterans, some hippie chicks. I usually don't talk politics with them except to laugh at their attempts to convert me.

Last weekend it came out that none of them intend to support The Messiah. They literally gave each other permission to do the unpopular thing and not support the elitist who couldn't give two shits about working people.

I think this kind of closet rebellion has little to do with race but it's real and, it appears now, will decide the election. Think of the hippie tears! We'll dip our balls in them yet.

30 Normally I am not one to link whore, but the IBD/TIPP poll has very interesting internals especially when it comes to the 65+ vote. 23% are showing as undecided, larger than any other age group. Take a look:

http://is.gd/4cQS

31 I guess he's not voting for Obama, then.

Obama did coke.

32

pollsters wouldn't have to ask questions like "how many times have you voted in the past six years"

I would like pollsters in this election to ask questions like, "how many times have you voted today" and "how many times have voted in this election."  The answers would be . . . not at all surprising, actually.

33

Know what?  A lot of people with real lives are just getting fucking sick of hearing about Obama.  Most normal people don't want to think about politics a lot, and the unending tongue-bath being applied to Obama in the media is wearing thin.

Know what else?  Obama's folks know it, and they are scared, and they are going to pull something really foul-smelling out of their ass, and with the help of their toadies in the media, tell us it was John McCain that cut a fart.

You watch.

34 Obama was raised by white people, he went to private schools, then he went off to college and got active in lefty politics. He's a Harvard lawyer named after his Harvard educated daddy.

Replace "lefty" with "Reaganite" and Chapelle would be explaining why Obama's not really black.

35 Being close in the 'traditional likely-voter, paper ballots, registration required' model is nice, but it's got nothing on being ahead in the 'likely electronic votes that tally' model.

36 "...she asked me if I were voting for Neobama...  I told her no.

She said: "Because he's BLACK!""

Classic projection, because that's the reason she is voting for him.

37

"Still, there is little reason today, some experts contend, for people answering public opinion polls to hide their true intentions"

 

These writers/"experts" don't know because they are liberals.  As a former dem, i have now seen the light of liberal intolerance.  Recently I was at a festival  that I attend regularly, and I seriously questioned that if I was outed as a McCain supporter, would a mob attack me? 

Friends have "jokingly" siad I should be shot, that I am ignorant, and that they can't talk to me, all because I am voting McCain.  I avoided all political talk at a recent party, as I did not want to fight that night. 

Nope, no reason to hide who I'm voting for...    

38 A few months back, I was chatting up a hippie chick I know, she's a lefty, but dumb, and she asked me if I were voting for Neobama...
I told her no.
She said: "Because he's BLACK!"
I said: "No, he's a Communist."

You coulda said: "No, he's a lawyer."  She wouldn't have had a comeback.  She'd be like that robot on Star Trek.

39

"Think of the hippie tears! We'll dip our balls in them yet."

Yet? That's how I clean my balls NOW, sponge.

40

Think of the hippie tears! We'll dip our balls in them yet.

Heh. Where's Sweasel? We need this pic: A jar of ball dip - 100% pure hippy tears - conservative tested, moron approved

41

I don't like phone calls at dinnertime.  I answer the phone, because it could be one of my kids, or my wife (not everybody works 9-5), or a problem at work.  My daughters and son are grown up and don't live here anymore.  I put my number on the do not call list for a reason. 

You want my time and my opinion?  Pay me.  For $500 I'll tell who I voted for and who I will vote for and why.   

42 There's also, "Because he's not a woman."

43

Still, there is little reason today, some experts contend, for people answering public opinion polls to hide their true intentions.

Really?  How about that I talk on the fucking telephone all day long and when I get home in the evening I don't want to hear another human voice unless it's someone I know and care about?  Anything that gets these assholes off the phone quickly is good, especially if it screws up their data.

44 I see.  There's no stigma attached to saying "I'm voting for McCain", it's just that McCain voters are stupid racist white trash hicks who don't like talkin to no pollsters.

Thanks for clearing that up, Mr, Kohut.

45 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

46 Hah!  I missed that!

47 "For people to lie, there generally has to be a stigma attached to telling the truth," said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. "There is none affiliated with saying, 'I'm voting for Hillary' or 'I'm voting for McCain.' "

Yeah, what stigma could possibly attach to being a brain-dead, greedy, evil, election-stealing, constitution-shredding, war criminal who is more concerned with being able to drive an SUV than killing polar bears? 

48 I'm tempted to buy some McCain at 15 on intrade.com.

49 Didn't Obambi tell people to 'get in their faces' if they weren't supporting him?  That sounds like a pretty big deterrent to telling a stranger who they're supporting.

50

I was polled.  A real one, not a push pull etc.

Live person.

On the presidential question (first) when asked I hesitated.  Really. 

The person sounded young (who knows of course) and was female and the horrid thought flashed through my mind that she might be an Obama supporter. 

 I honestly worried about answering 'McCain' wondering if an Obama supporter would have access to my phone number (does a computer dial and these folks never see the number, hope so!) and thus could cause me grief.

I mean think of the hell that Joe the Plumber is starting to go through.

I answered, "Um, probably McCain." and answered undecided on all the rest.

So although I scoffed at any real Bradley or otherwise effect, I now wonder about it and other response problems in the polls 'cause I am a strong McCain/Palin supporter and yet I felt nervous about saying that to some stranger on the phone.

Anyway, nice to see some movement in the polls! 

51

more concerned with being able to drive an SUV than killing polar bears? 

I'm more concerned about Obama taking away right to kill polar bears with my SUV.

 

52 I mean it's not like the liberals attacked Joe the Plumber or anything.

53

my right

FIFY

54 I've hung up on two polls this election. And if I get another one, I'm gonna flat out lie to them.

55

I loooove arguing politics with liberals.  It's so easy.  They are so insulated, it is easy to demolish their arguments, and the look of confusion on their faces is priceless - "But, I thought all conservatives were dumb hicks?"  How else are we going to convert them?

That Coulter column was good - I was wondering that myself in the last few days.  I keep having to remind myself of how things turned out in 2006...

56

I don't hide my politics, ever. Everyon I work with knows I'm a conservative Catholic Republican. I'll challenge anyone to a debate and I don't hold back. The other day I had a caller for Rep. McCarthy(D-NY) call my house, the conversation went something like this:

me:"Hello?"

caller:"Hi, I'm calling from Carolyn McCarthy's re-election campaign..."

me:"heh heh heh"

Caller:"... and we want to thank you for your support. We hope you will be coming out on election day and voting for Rep McCarthy. Her stance on taxes and energy ..."

me:"What are her opinions on off-shore drilling, drilling in ANWAR, and explioting oil shale in Montana, Idaho and North and South Dakota?"

Caller:"Excuse me?"

me:"What are her opinions on off-shore drilling, drilling in ANWAR, and explioting oil shale in Montana, Idaho and North and South Dakota?"

Caller:"I'm sorry for taking up yur time have a nice evening.-click-"

How many of O'Bama's own pollsters are hanging up on McCain supporters? Yeah, I know that that was a GOTV call, but she was so snippy when I called her out, it's possible O'Bama's internals are acting the same way; and with the press in the tank for O"Bama, he might not be getting a clear picture of what's really going on out there.

Just a theroy, I'll let the less intoxicated figure it out.

Off-topic Budwiser American Ale is pretty good. Not the best ale, but OK.

57 You guys are pussies. My favorite line I used in grad school when asked about my politics was, "I'm slightly to the right of Jengis Kahn."

I never had to suffer through the circle jerk lefty political rants ever again. The only time they spoke politics to me was when they thought they had a chance at winning the argument. Or, I should say, when they put together a particularly ironic construction that exemplified their rightiness.

58

Fantastic post.  And I have several anecdotal stories that back you up completely.  My take is that if Obama isn't more than a solid 8 points ahead on election day, the Bradely (or more likely the "I don't want to piss off unhinged liberals who can make my life tougher or even a combo deal of the two) Effect will put McCain over.

Two points ahead of McCain in likely voters?  If that is true, McCain will be President.

Unless the electorial college fucks him.  Which it could.

59 Talking to a pollster:

"Hello?"
"I'm supporting Cynthia McKinney, sir"
"I know, but Obama's just too right-wing for me, and Cindy's been around a lot longer."
"Hello?  Hello?  Weird, I figured she'd want to know about ballot issues."

60 With all the money Obie is spending, he should be up twenty. Loser

61 But on the topic at hand... I'm as sure as I can be that the pollsters are either distorting or they have no idea how to determine how the electorate looks this year. There's too much passion, manipulation, fraud, and confusion, and there's just too many normal variables to know for sure. The polls would have tightened regardless of the last debate.

62

Yeah, gotta say, I've been keeping my views to myself since freshman year of college.  I'd never been exposed to spittle-laced rage before going to a liberal arts school.  I'm just too thin-skinned to get into it.

Incidentally, I registered to vote for my first election - which just happened to be Bush/Gore - during the freshman orientation fair.  I was naive enough to register as a Republican, and when I saw the girl check over my form, I thought to myself, "Aw, crap."  It's probably a coincidence, but guess which swing-stater didn't get her absentee ballot in time?

 

63 The solution this problem is obvious: Check Card Voting.  Man up and vote with an open ballot if front of the pollsters. If it is good enough for the Unions it good enough for the rest of us. 

64

I live in Massachusetts.

In 1996, I had a Dole sticker ripped off my car multiple times. In the same year I also lost my (RINO) Bill Weld for Senate sticker (when he was running against Kerry)).  In 2000, with my "W" sticker, same thing. 

I figured out a solution.

In 2004, I put my round NRA Member sticker next to my Bush/Cheney bumper sticker.

I had no subsequent problems with it.

That being said, you can bet that my car's going to be in the garage election night. 

 

 

 

 

65 Cedric...do it. I made over $1000 on Bush in '04 when his numbers were artificially low. I'm going to try my luck again this year.

66 I think if I ever get called for a poll, I'll say I'm voting for the Neo-Nationalist Socialist candidate.  Think they would even have a clue?

67 Ace Said:
"And if I'm talking to a liberal-leaning girl I'd like to screw... well oh my. One isn't responsible for the sorts of things one says when sporting a proto-boner."

Would her name be Rosie Palm? I guess that means you will be "talking to the hand"!

68 Very interesting, but let's not talk ourselves into thinking McCain is likely to win ... because likely he won't.

All this false hope-raising tends to harsh my mellow, and I can't stand the daily poll numbers, coupled with the fecklessness of the the McCain campaign and the concerted media effort to help cover for Obama's murky past and his present lies.

69 It's widely believed that the UK used to have a similar effect, especially during the Thatcher/Major years: people who wouldn't confess to supporting the evil Tories in public would vote their wallets in the polling both. And sure enough I've heard a polling expert on TV denying the reality of that effect too.

70 Zombietime has an essay up on this subject.  It's a little lengthy, but really good.

71 I've been kind of shy about "outing" myself as a conservative in the very liberal academic environment I'm in. I've gotten more bold, lately - sometimes the Obamaites say things that are so dumb I just can't let them slide. I don't mind it much except when they try to get all evangelical on me.

There are secret codes, though. One guy told me last night he liked my "Choose Life" license plate and said he and his wife had them too. The unspoken phrase? "Oh, good, I thought *I* was the only conservative in this office!"

72 And if I'm talking to a liberal-leaning girl I'd like to screw... well oh my. One isn't responsible for the sorts of things one says when sporting a proto-boner.

God damn you, Ace!

73 Can't forget that poor woman who was called and asked if she would support Obama. She said she wd never support anyone who would allow a baby to die on the floor and hung up. The next day, the FBI comes a knocking...

74

Poorer, less-educated whites don't like to do these polls as much as better-educated people do,"

My theory why people who do these polls is not relative to wealth or education rather it's related to an empty, hallow life which desperately needs validation that their life matters. 

Honestly who has the time or enjoys answering personal questions asked by strangers over the telephone?

75 I DON'T LIKE PEOPLE PLAYIN' ON MY PHONE!

76 Hey, isn't it funny that no liberals/leftists have staged a protest against the government's takeover of the banking and mortgage industry?

Nothing....from the folks who went ballistic because a terrorist's phone call might be tapped.

Why is that?

77 I told a pollster in Rhode Island I was a Republican once, and he asked me (I so swear I'm not making this up), "so how do you feel about the KKK?"

78 My wife and I run with the local "arts" community.   We're the token conservatives and tolerated, since I generally supply the booze.

79 Anyone interested in the zombie article can click here
It's pretty good.

K

80

Do it Cuffy! Please do it. That would be fucking priceless.

Here you go (same content warning as Ace's above).

81

Look at what Jake Tapper wrote!

(I cannot believe my eyes)

Obama, in response, said, "ACORN is a community organization. Apparently, what they have done is they were paying people to go out and register folks. And apparently, some of the people who were out there didn't really register people, they just filled out a bunch of names. Had nothing to do with us. We were not involved. The only involvement I've had with ACORN was I represented them alongside the U.S. Justice Department in making Illinois implement a motor voter law that helped people get registered at DMVs."

That's not the whole story.

First, McCain also said ACORN gave Obama's campaign "$832,000 for, for, quote, 'lighting and site selection.'"

That's a reference to the Obama campaign's contract with Citizens' Services Inc., for Get-Out-the-Vote field services during the Democratic primaries. CSI subcontracted with some ACORN staff for a short period to help supervise door-to-door canvassing, for which ACORN was paid $80,000.

The Obama campaign initially listed the more than $800,000 payment to CSI for "staging, sound, lighting" from Feb. 25 to May 17, but later amended the FEC filing to reflect that the work was canvassing.

Obama has, in addition:

* associated himself with ACORN's work on occasions;
* received the group's PAC endorsement;
* worked, in 1992, for Project Vote, to register 150,000 voters; ACORN provided about 5,000 of them;
* voluntarily conducted two leadership training sessions of roughly an hour each for ACORN's Chicago affiliate over a three-year period in the late 1990s.
* And was on the board of The Woods Fund, which gave several grants to ACORN.

Has the shine worn off of the Teleprompter Messiah?

82

Obama now has the endorsement of BAT BOY!

That ought to improve his support from all the nut jobs.

Oh, wait...

83 "Poorer, less-educated whites don't like to do these polls as much as better-educated people do," he said. "The refusals come from the same class of people who tend to be the most racially intolerant."

Maybe some of us edumucated types like to fuck with clueless journo-twats like Kohunt.

84

moronizer at October 16, 2008 05:19 PM (p1s9n)

 

Nice to see Tapper finally got around to reporting what I have been saying for months.

CSI is another front for the Rathke boys of ACORN fame.

http://tinyurl.com/4re53g

85 Here's a very interesting answer about polls for those ivy league intelligensia:

You called at 6pm. I'm eating dinner. YOU called me, I didn't call you. You want my opinion on a subject that I'll decide in a voting booth. Just as it's NONE OF YOUR FUCKING BUSINESS in the voting booth means that it ALSO APPLIES ON THE PHONE.

BTW, you're gonna make money when you compile all your data. How about sharing Obama's philosophy AND SHARE THE WEALTH. My opinion will cost you $1000.

86 Is "lighting and site selection" the political equivalent of "fruit and flowers"?

87

Is there some kind of traditional complacency effect--where if people think their guy is sure to win they don't bother to vote?

That could be good.

88 I don't think there's an explicit Bradley Effect; that is, people saying they'll vote Obama when they know they won't. I think it's more likely they simply won't give a preference, meaning most of the "Undecided/Not Sure/Not Specified" vote is made up of shy McCain supporters. So maybe assume that 70-80% of the Don't Knows will go for McCain, and adjust the polls accordingly.

89 "Poorer, less-educated whites don't like to do these polls as much as better-educated people do," he said. "The refusals come from the same class of people who tend to be the most racially intolerant."


Well, gee willickers. Poor, uneducated white folk don't teach. They don't hire people. They don't make loans. Why is it that I'm on an island of smart, rich, tolerant liberals here in NYC and yet we're surrounded by an ocean of poor, ill-educated minorities? If racism is really the problem then it ain't bitter rural people who cling to God and guns and don't answer pollster questions who are responsible for it.

90

This election is a referendum on Obama.  Of course people voting anti-Obama won't want to answer polls.  They aren't proud or happy that a rabid liberal needs to be kept from the keys of power, it is just a chore.

Obama, Peace be upon Him, is the leader of a cult.  McCain is a liberal who hates his party.  Of course Obama worshippers will sit still for a 10 minute phone poll, and of course McCain supporters won't.  I'm embarrased that McCain is 'my candidate'.  He's the candidate my candidate should be running against.

91 What do you mean Obama doesn't look like the guys on the dollar bill?

He sure looks a lot like this guy.

92 Crap!

I mean THIS guy.

93 WTF!

http://tinyurl.com/3zbgw5

94 They also are also not taking into account the fact that if I cannot identify your name on my phone ID, I am not taking your call.  You are intruding on my time.  What shall we make of it though--conservatives value their time, but liberals like to blather with complete strangers?  But I guess that does not fit their elitist liberal self___.

I have been around for enough election cycles not to put much stock in the polls until about two or three days out--and even then, it is a wet finger in the air.  I read the Culter article earlier this morning and was glad that someone saw the same exact phenomenon.

This thing is far from over, unless of course you don't object to being jerked around, controlled, and manipulated.

95 "I told a pollster in Rhode Island I was a Republican once, and he asked me (I so swear I'm not making this up), "so how do you feel about the KKK?""
I'd tell him, "Hell,  I don't like *any* damn Democrats, whether they belong to the KKK or not!"

I've had a couple of beers or such with Andrew Kohut, and he's a nice guy, but even back in the 90s he had that liberal blind spot.  They're really pretty clueless on any culture outside of their own.

96 Oh, for God's sakes, what nonsense.

Great line Ace, mind if I borrow it?

Oh, for God's sakes, what nonsense, Ace. There is a much simpler explanation for which there is actual evidence. Democrats are liars. Yep, that's the whole explanation. Pretty simple isn't it?

Let me explain. Those people who work as journalists in the MSM, the people who work for ACORN, union members, fucking trial lawyers, anti-war fuck heads, etc are mostly Democrats who lie to us at the drop of a fucking hat. There's plenty of evidence that Democrats are liars. Not to mention Democrat fucking politicians. Liars, millions and millions of Democrats are liars. Well, some of the people working in the polling industry are Democrats and they lie about what people tell them on the phone. The make up responses instead of working to get them just like ACORN makes up voter registrations. Just like union members make up hours worked. Its just fucking easier.

So if you have a bunch of lying fucking Democrats making up polling data. Even though some pollsters are honest and work hard, the lying fucking Democratic pollsters skew the results every time.

Truth.

97 "Poorer, less-educated whites don't like to do these polls as much as better-educated people do..."

If nothing else he said gave you a clue, this proves what a moron you're dealing with.

98 I have also been teased by one of my childhood friends for not being comfortable with my blackness or some other such nonsense because I can not for the life of me stand the small 0.  He may have just been messing with me, but I'm not sure

99 Posted by: Seattle Slough at October 16, 2008 06:26 PM (H5l9d)

WTF indeed, apparently, not all the dumbasses are Democrats

100 Ace, as a conservative-ish/libertarian-ish atheist who has read this blog since the early 1980s, I'm very concerned that you spelled my name wrong in the update.

101 For the record I am supporting Obama, the LORD OF lIGHT, JUST IN CASE SOMEONE DECIDED TO PUBLISH ALL MY TAX RETURNS, OR INVESTIGATE EVERYMY ASSOCIATIONS WITH THE NRA, Heritage Foundation,  AND PEOPLE LIKE RONALD REAGAN AND  WILLIAM BUCKLEY.

102 #87: Is there some kind of traditional complacency effect--where if people think their guy is sure to win they don't bother to vote?

I've heard it suggested that this could be a big hidden advantage for McCain. The reasoning is that Obama's popularity is highest among twentysomethings - the very age group that historically has had the lowest election turnout.

When all is said and done this election may come down to who actually bothers to show up at the polling places on Nov. 4. On the conservative side, that will boil down to their estimation of how much they, and we, have to lose under an all-Dem government. If they sense, as I do, than an Obama administration coupled with a blue Congress amounts to a death blow for conservatism for at least a generation, I suspect it won't matter how much they distrust McCain - they will turn out for him in droves. Self-preservation is one helluva motivator.

103 I read a piece yesterday that talked about this. That the Bradley Effect does not arise from racism (i.e. I'm not voting for Candidate X because they're black) but rather from *the fear of being labeled racist* (I'll tell them I'm voting for X now so I'm not racist but change to Y in the safety of the booth).

Was it Zombie's piece?

http://www.zombietime.com/lefts_big_blunder/

104

Oh Ace you stallion,

 

I too have felt the shame of having to hide the true me, well to a point, working at a hugely left leaning TV giant I have no problem sitting and reading you, or Michelle, or Hotair, or fleshbot.  but never have a recieved a more glorious text then during the first debate when a female friend of mine texted me out of the blue with "Friggen Liberals"  Never could ones heart jump with more awesomeness, amazingly hot girl, smart as hell, and REPUBLICAN.  One day you too will not have to fear what we on the right bring. 

 

I think the Bradley effect is strong, here in NJ theres 0 Obama signs around, which is amazing.  In New York today I saw 2 McCain supporters on the street and only 1 for Barry.  I think polls scare people because they want to be seen as open and hip, but in the end everyone is true while in the booth, its just them, god, the machine, and the ACORN hit squad who truely know who they voted for.

105 Goddamn sockpuppet.

106

My 15 year old niece wore her "Students for McCain" t-shirt to school yesterday. Her best friend since kindergarten is an Obama supporter. Her parents are both teachers and of course are Democrats (although they were big Hillary fans, they don't really like Obama and won't vote for McCain).  

So when her friend saw her shirt she asks her why she doesn't like Obama. My niece (I am quite proud of this) went on to explain to her why Obama will be bad for the economy, etc. She has all the facts about what makes Obama's views socialist and how they will hurt all of us who work for a living. When she finishes her reasons, her friend says to her, "You just don't like Obama because you are a racist." So my niece fired right back, spunky little Irish girl that she is, "Do you like Sarah Palin?" To which her friend answers no. My niece then informed her, "Then I guess that makes you a sexist!"

She attends the same school as Congressman Chris Carney's children (his one son is in her class). They come to school decked out in Obama gear, even though his dad doesn't dare announce his backing of the Messiah because of the Hillary and McCain backlash he would get in this district.

107 "And if I'm talking to a liberal-leaning girl I'd like to screw... well oh my. One isn't responsible for the sorts of things one says when sporting a proto-boner."


Ace, I thought you banged mumbling hobos?

Something improving in your love life? 

108

Check out this post on Hillbuzz - http://tinyurl.com/6q7g9l - and pass it along to Repubs. Bottom line, go out and vote, don't let the media talk you out of it. Get your friends and family out to vote, don't let the media talk them out of voting. The media will spend the whole day trying to make sure you are so demoralized that you have no interest in voting.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, we need to embrace and learn from the PUMAs. They have a goal and won't let anything get in their way!

109 An interesting observation I have been making is that all the "undecided" voters I have talked to really do not sound all that "undecided" when I talk to them. My wife is supposedly "undecided" as are some others that I know but they are steaming on the whole socialist and ACORN angles. If they end up voting for Obama I will eat my freaking hat. I think the undecided are mostly McCain votes.

110 货架 货架 托盘 托盘 货架

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