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| Gallup: Three Point Race Among LikeliesUsing the HopeyChangey turnout model, which only takes account of someone's self-reported determination to vote (something that is inherently unreliable, which is why it's never used), Obama is up by 8. That 8 is too high but I'm sure a lot of these cultists will vote for the first time, much more than usual. So the lead is... who knows? 5? 6? The Zogster has it just shy of 4. Rasmussen has it at 5, 50-45, pretty much where's it's been for a week. Thanks to Scott.CommentsPosted by: OregonMuse at October 15, 2008 01:49 PM (FO+YO) 2
You said pole.
Posted by: tachyonshuggy at October 15, 2008 01:50 PM (TXp3z) 3
Not too long ago, I mentioned in the comments here that the election polls would have some back and forth motion. The key is for McCain to be on the upswing going in to election day.
Actually, the thought of voting for McCain actually nauseates me, but the thought of voting for Palin allows me to keep my lunch down, at least until election day, after which I might be throwing up non-stop for 4-8 years. Posted by: physics geek at October 15, 2008 01:50 PM (MT22W) 4
They're tightening it up on their numbers to get it "respectably" close... you know, within MOE @ the end when Palin drags John across the finish line.
Posted by: Editor at October 15, 2008 01:51 PM (GTpOW) Posted by: Nice Deb at October 15, 2008 01:51 PM (9Ghzz) Posted by: Bart at October 15, 2008 01:52 PM (sF2fI) 7
I wouldn't raise their turnout too much, Ace. They're supremely overconfident in this (after all, CBS gives them a 14 point lead), and a lot of the slacker voters and grudging sign-ups won't think they need to bother.
If it's really within three amongst likelies, that's just too close to make predictions. If you believe that Bradley will play, it's really up in the air. Posted by: Stinky Esposito at October 15, 2008 01:52 PM (MMC8r) 8
These polls are not worth a shit, why do we keep looking at them? Posted by: Vic at October 15, 2008 01:52 PM (b1ysY) 9
Let's face it - a lot of the not sure/undecided are really "I'm not going to tell you I'm voting for McCain 'cause you'll call me a racist".
Posted by: Editor at October 15, 2008 01:53 PM (GTpOW) 10
Unfortunately, this poll probably has the 900+ dow surge in it. Mac poll numbers are in direct proportion to the DJIA, seeing that it is down about 500 points today, that will be reflected in tomorrows and the next days number. On the positive side, if all these moves by the fed and treasury help the markets, we could see a surge just before the election that will help Mac. Otherwise, game over man.
Posted by: Judd at October 15, 2008 01:54 PM (BXHeE) 11
Ace, you should consider bumping the PUMA post. Check out your comments and those at Hillbuzz.
Posted by: rdbrewer at October 15, 2008 01:54 PM (CrSOk) Posted by: OregonMuse at October 15, 2008 01:54 PM (FO+YO) 13
I think that the stories of ACORN and Malkins amazing story of Ivy-League activists in Franklin County Ohio, are indicative that Barry thinks this could come down to Ohio- which indicates a close race. The MSM are playing games to depress conservative turnout like in 2000 and 2004.
If McCain can hit his stride (I know) he can close like Ford did in 1976 against another newcomer with inexperience and sneak this out. Posted by: jjshaka at October 15, 2008 01:55 PM (o8Mg9) 14
Who knows? Could be between three and four. Which would be good for all the financial stuff, and considering people will just now begin to pay attention to Obama his ownself. Of course 3 or 4 translates to +125 in Media speak. Still, the polls, all of them, are balderdash the pollsters have screwed the party ids so badly they don't have a clue what is up. Just keep working and be of good cheer. Like the PUMAS... not like the conservative commentariat so popular at MSNBC. McCain wins in the end. The Stalinists have declared it will be so. It will be so.
Posted by: The Obvious at October 15, 2008 01:55 PM (1g+FW) 15
Interesting....from Rasmussen
"For McCain, the encouraging news comes from core supporters—those who are certain how they will vote and that they will not change their mind. Just 42% are certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. That two-point gap is much closer than the overall numbers. It’s also much closer than the 45% to 38% advantage among core supporters enjoyed by Obama heading into the second Presidential Debate last week." Posted by: jason at October 15, 2008 01:55 PM (Cy1m7) 16
If we believe Rasmussen, there are 18% of voters still up for grabs...let's grab them....
Posted by: jason at October 15, 2008 01:57 PM (Cy1m7) 17
The Great Realignment is at hand!
Welcome to our new overlords! Honestly this is the scariest shit I have read in years. Posted by: Rocks at October 15, 2008 01:57 PM (Q1lie) 18
``Let's face it - a lot of the not sure/undecided are really "I'm not
going to tell you I'm voting for McCain 'cause you'll call me a racist".
THIS. Posted by: Annalucia at October 15, 2008 01:58 PM (OMiLl) 19
jjshaka ... yeah, but if McCain takes both MN and PA, it's over for obamacorn.
Posted by: kimberly at October 15, 2008 01:58 PM (Rpam5) 20
Obama is too close to 50
However, I really suspect the Voter ID weighting they are using. If it turns out to be more like 2006 numbers and McCain does ok with Indpendents he should win and be winning right now. these polls are speculating on a huge difference in Voter ID numbers, that its 1976 again. Posted by: jp at October 15, 2008 01:58 PM (DFDtC) 21
Wow - I'm really optomistic about our chances considering this round of poles. Seems like McCain may be closing the gap.
Posted by: t.ferg at October 15, 2008 01:58 PM (2YVh7) 22
11
Ace, you should consider bumping the PUMA post. Check out your comments and those at Hillbuzz.
I second that!! You have created a great cross-buzz between the sites. It's energizing! Posted by: CB at October 15, 2008 01:58 PM (9Wv2j) 23
I've been saying all along that the race is very close. If the media were reporting the news honestly, McCain would be up 30+ points. But hey, we can't have everything right? It ain't over folks. Not by a long shot. Posted by: SueM at October 15, 2008 02:00 PM (t6/GK) Posted by: Kestrel♠ at October 15, 2008 02:01 PM (Jiect) 25
Still more proof that McCain is the worst candidate ever: Obama has: Thrown everyone he's ever known (including his mother) under the bus. Has taken back virtually everything he has ever said in public (or has blatantly lied about ever have said it) Has changed every position he has ever publically taken (or has blatantly lied about ever having taken it) Has taken the unbelievable postion of never having known any of the bad things that any of the bad people he has ever known for most of his life have done. Has managed to distinguish himself among the most corrupt and most controversial people and organizations in Chicago (no less!) Has significantly damaged the progress made in race relations over the last several decades. And he is still not only competitive, but is probably going to win! Posted by: Kae Gregory at October 15, 2008 02:01 PM (RkRxq) 26
This race is really close. Just look at the campaigns. Either McCain has one hell of a poker face in not panicking with all those red states turning blue or the race is really close. Since McCain isn't going into any of the red states other than Virginia, I think it is safe to say that they are all still red.
Considering that Obama isn't trying to put the dagger in the heart of McCain by swiping a red state that he shouldn't means that even the Obama team doesn't buy the reported polls. We just have to fight hard for 3 more weeks and then we can have one hell of a celebration on election day. Posted by: David at October 15, 2008 02:02 PM (HAdov) 27
Yeah, don't know much about polls. Philly Enquirer has Obama up double digits in PA. Someone needs to explain why anyone would be spending time campaigning in a place he is up double digits. Didn't someone comment on an earlier thread that Obama's campaign only has him up 2 points in PA?
Posted by: sears poncho at October 15, 2008 02:03 PM (F0d04) 28
I said a few days ago that somebody must see something in PA that the public is not because both candidates have been campaigning there. If we're to believe the polls, Obama should have an insurmountable lead there. Something is really off with these polls.
And 90% say that Obama is groovy dreamy sexy. Get it right, Bart, you hater. Get it right Oregonmuse, you hater. Posted by: Jay at October 15, 2008 02:03 PM (efvZp) 29
I wouldn't raise their turnout too much, Ace.
In addition, how many of those radically kewl radicals who registered multiple times will actually vote more than once? I doubt very many, as they will probably chicken out when the moment comes to actually cast more than one vote. Posted by: wiserbud at October 15, 2008 02:03 PM (wWwJR) Posted by: lorien1973 at October 15, 2008 02:05 PM (IhQuA) 31
"Still more proof that McCain is the worst candidate ever:"
As much as I dislike McCain you could also make the argument that Obama is the worst candidate ever. Obama has gotten absolutely every single break, all the free press coverage, plus very little that is critical of him escapes the press embargo and yet McCain has a decent shot to pull this off. I haven't even thrown in Bush and the economy and the snow job the media has done spinning all of this as a Republican problem. You have to take a step back and look at the entire picture here. We should all be suicidal at the moment, but we are becoming more cautously optimistic by the day. Posted by: David at October 15, 2008 02:06 PM (HAdov) 32
The PUMAS at Hillbuzz still have bigger balls than you morons.
Posted by: dave at October 15, 2008 02:09 PM (MKM35) Posted by: ace at October 15, 2008 02:09 PM (1WR4H) 34
Wow, check out the David! Kicking ass and taking names.
Posted by: rdbrewer at October 15, 2008 02:10 PM (CrSOk) 35
McCain finally started running ads in NC, the ayers ad.
tons of Obama ads in NC, the Healthcare ad that Lowry has a hard on about is played alot. My guess is that in NC there are more Female than Male voters and he's worried about them because of Palin. Although, how McCain doesn't easily win NC is beyond me. Hopefully Obama is wasting money here Posted by: jp at October 15, 2008 02:11 PM (DFDtC) 36
the Hillbuzz piece needs to be spam mailed to AllahPundit
Posted by: jp at October 15, 2008 02:11 PM (DFDtC) Posted by: rdbrewer at October 15, 2008 02:11 PM (CrSOk) 38
Is there any good reason that polls should be considered more unbiased than any other political-information product, e.g. blogs, NYT, MSNBC. If you didn't pay for the poll it wasn't researched and written for you. The guys who do pay for the polls are obsessed with the "horse race" aspect of it all and are 80% in the tank for Obama. Those are the people the polls are researched and written for. Forget the polls. Posted by: Rocky's Pal at October 15, 2008 02:12 PM (ywSvi) 39
Here's my reason for cautious optimism in all this. Obama is right now hitting McCain with everything he's got. I saw an Obama ad attacking McCain during the local news (meaning local buy) in Louisville, KY! As you well know, Kentucky is not a swing state, but because the Louisville market bleeds some into southern Indiana, which is -- marginally -- a swing state, Obama is spending money here. The law of diminishing returns has kicked in on Obama's ad spending. No matter how much he spends on his ads, he really can't reach anymore folks than he already has, and is now probably annoying them with the constant barrage. And now McCain is gaining on him besides this? He's still in this. Posted by: Lee at October 15, 2008 02:12 PM (TxTIh) Posted by: CB at October 15, 2008 02:13 PM (9Wv2j) 41
These polls are complete garbage.
CBS's was the worst. They are an attempt to close down the election by some and CYA by the rest in case the meme that Obama will win easily because of the economy is right. Posted by: Rocks at October 15, 2008 02:13 PM (Q1lie) 42
Somebody refresh my memory. What did the polls say 4 years ago with Bush and Lurch? Seems to me they showed Lurch winning but what were the actual figures? Posted by: bitter, clinging Pennsylvanian at October 15, 2008 02:13 PM (bd68Z) 43
JP, I'm in California, completely behind enemy lines, and there is almost nothing BUT Obama ads on. It does make one wonder . . .
Posted by: CB at October 15, 2008 02:15 PM (9Wv2j) 44
Not to poop on the notion that the "undecideds" are all just not saying they're for McCain for fear of being called racist, but **fffzzzt**
The people I know personally who say in their first sentence that they are "undecided" turn out to be really for the O. It's not that they like him -- it's more like they're looking for reasons to make sure it's okay to vote against the Republicans. They're a little scared of him, hence the "undecided," but ultimately they'll go that way. Or, it could be that I'm such a ball-buster in person about this sort of thing that they're just afraid to admit it in my presence. Either way, I wouldn't count your theory as the only one. Posted by: mr.frakypants at October 15, 2008 02:16 PM (PonvG) 45
I will say one thing is for sure. The MSM had better tread lightly with the it's inevitable meme or they will get the race riots they have been warning about if McCain wins.
Posted by: Rocks at October 15, 2008 02:16 PM (Q1lie) 46
How is this election even close? Because Obama is a horrible candidate. Hillary Clinton would have been CRUSHING McCain by now. McCain would not gave picked Palin, he would have picked some boring guy like Tim Pawlenty, and the base would be out fishing today. McCain genuinely likes Clinton and would never have touched her in a debate. Obama only got in this race because he feared 8 years of Hillary would be followed by fatigue and a likely Republican win. He knew it was now or never for him. Posted by: rockmom at October 15, 2008 02:19 PM (iZqUY) Posted by: Rocks at October 15, 2008 02:21 PM (Q1lie) 48
"Hillary Clinton would have been CRUSHING McCain by now."
Well no shit. Half the people here would be voting for her. Including me. Posted by: someone at October 15, 2008 02:21 PM (2z2WN) 49
As more and more people find out that the Dem's were responsible for the current fiscal mess and that McCain tried to do something about it, more people will vote for McCain (to let Obama 'get better' over the next four years is how I heard one ex-Obama supporter put it.). We shall see. I am still counting on Team McCain to win this thing. Posted by: ArandomPerson at October 15, 2008 02:22 PM (MSMPS) 50
Using the HopeyChangey turnout model, which only takes account of someone's self-reported determination to vote (something that is inherently unreliable, which is why it's never used. ast nite I rec'd my first ever polling telephone call. From Rasmussen - a computer call - and it took about 5 minutes. Most of the questions rather standard... "Who are you voting for, push one for McCain and two for Obama". How I felt about Pres. Bush and the "Direction of Country" were also asked. How much was I following election, on a scale of 1 - 9. To Ace's point, above, I was asked a question that I found interesting and maybe attempting to get a sense of "determination", but maybe only interesting: "If you had to make a choice between watching the Presidential Debate and your favorite sports team which would you watch?" As I am a Republican I, of course, have a dvr for every tv in the house, so the question is moot, but I went with "Prez debate"... but I'd never miss my Clippers playin', ain't no way.Posted by: TomvG at October 15, 2008 02:22 PM (TRJxR) 51
if the MSM and Leftist idiots in this country really beleive their own crap, they may be all for Race Riots, a Lying Media, you name it. The "ends justify the means". These people think we are destroying the Earth and its just a matter of time till CO2 destroys the earth. They think Christianity is just as bad or worse than islam and its the Christians behind the Repubs. lusting for a Crusade and Holy War against the Muslims allied with the Blood for Oil crowd with them. If you really beleived this stuff, like many of them do and Teachers accross the country are brainwashing kids with Al Gores movie. So if you really beleived this crap, you'd be willing to do next to anything to Win this election or takeover the Govt. Its easy to Rationalize things at that point. Think about it, last time a piece of Junk Science(Eugenics) came a polticized issue, those that really beleived it did some horrible things in the name of 'science'. Its easy to rationalize the Holocaust if you really beleive in Eugenics, or placing Planned Parenthood clinics in black neighborhoods around the country...Ends justify the means. Some of these ass wipes have already called for Conservatives denying Global Warming to be put in Concentration Camps.
Posted by: jp at October 15, 2008 02:24 PM (DFDtC) 52
Wouldn't suprise me if Media is selling Obama discounted airtime and/or Free airtime at this point. (which would be a campaign contribution violation I would think)
I can't turn on TV or radio, and its even the Country and Conservative Talk radio stations here, that have Obama ads running every hour. This is North Carolina. Hardly any Mccain ads, though some have popped up lately. Posted by: jp at October 15, 2008 02:26 PM (DFDtC) 53
re: global warming....I think God may be getting the last laugh here. Sun doesn't have any sun spot activity right now and its getting Cooler. Glaciers are actually growing in Alaska this year. We may be looking at much colder weather in coming years
Posted by: jp at October 15, 2008 02:27 PM (DFDtC) 54
Although, how McCain doesn't easily win NC is beyond me.
I grew up in the state. There is a pretty substantial black population that is going to vote 97+% for The One. That's why the race is still close. And Team Obambi is counting on depressing the conservative vote on election day. Good luck with that, jackass. Posted by: physics geek at October 15, 2008 02:29 PM (MT22W) Posted by: Lincoln Adams at October 15, 2008 02:31 PM (gLNLT) 56
I wouldn't be surprised if the Bradley Effect has multiplied due to the charge of racism being thrown out for everything from criticizing Obama's tax policy to talking about Palin's hairdoo. As a side note, on PBS last night they had a big special on the history of McCain and Obama. When Obama got into the Senate he got one of Daschle's main guys (the 101st Senator) and they came up with a 2 year plan to have him avoid controversy and get leading Dems behind him by '06 so he could run for president. That's fuckin' great. Just what we need. How about getting into the Senate and doing your damn job. That is the underlying problem with our Federal government, at least. The majority of these clowns can only look ahead to what propels them to higher office or keeps them sitting pretty in their present office. Posted by: SalvucciFumbles at October 15, 2008 02:32 PM (e7ua4) 57
Baby Popeye says over-sampling Democrats isn't right. "I stood all I cans stands and I can't stands no more!!"
Posted by: MCPO Airdale at October 15, 2008 02:33 PM (wba6w) Posted by: le combat at October 15, 2008 02:33 PM (wCyPp) 59
Somebody refresh my memory I remember pouring a double that night and thinking Kerry was going to win it, and the conventional wisdom still holds that he was leading in the polls. A quick Google, though, reveals that Bush actually had a lead in many polls, but that his numbers were dropping right up to the election. I don't think I'm alone in "misremembering" the situation on election night 2004. I thought Kerry was pretty much universally in the lead, polling-wise. In October 21-25, 2004, polls were a tossup. American Research Group had Kerry by 2; Zogby had Kerry by 2 in one poll and 3 a few days later. Gallup had Bush up by 5; Democracy Corps had Kerry by 2. CNN/USA Today had Bush by 5 points, but falling in the last week. Zogby himself claimed it was a 47-47 tie at the National Press Club on October 29. Has McCain ever held a lead in the polls? Not being coy, I just don't remember that he has. Did his numbers get over Obama's after the convention?
Posted by: railwriter at October 15, 2008 02:36 PM (nwEiU) 60
Although, how McCain doesn't easily win NC is beyond me
Try the fact that it is 22% black and if the women vote Democrap, as they historically do, NC could go for O’Bama. They do have a Democrap governor and that is a telling thing there. Posted by: Vic at October 15, 2008 02:38 PM (b1ysY) 61
McCain doesn't have manhandle Obama in the debate tonight, but he does have to bring up Aryers and Acorn. This is the last chance to speak to a wide audiance, and to do it side by side with Obama. You know what is odd though, Riddle me this, why are debate ratings down from 04 with the exception of the VP debate?
Posted by: Pam at October 15, 2008 02:39 PM (bj062) 62
What I wonder about turnout is -- how are we going to get enough PUMAs to vote? Because the Rove stuff targets GOP voters.
Posted by: someone at October 15, 2008 02:41 PM (2z2WN) 63
Random Maryland observation: Many McCain/Palin road signs (the large, expensive ones) erected throughout the Eastern Shore. Maryland, for the uninitiated, is pretty damn blue. Curious. Posted by: railwriter at October 15, 2008 02:42 PM (nwEiU) 64
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: it ain't over till it's over. Posted by: toetotoetotoe at October 15, 2008 02:42 PM (X8Omj) 65
Why are debate ratings down from 04
Because these two won't lay a glove on each other. It's like paying to see a heavyweight title fight and, instead, getting a YouTube of two gay guys slap fighting in a dorm hall. Posted by: MCPO Airdale at October 15, 2008 02:43 PM (wba6w) 66
I wouldn't be surprised if the Bradley Effect has multiplied due to the charge of racism being thrown out for everything from criticizing Obama's tax policy to talking about Palin's hairdoo. This is exactly what i have been thinking. the more Obama's supporters claim McCain is racist, the more unlikely it is mcCain supporters will quietdown to avoid being considered racist. I suspect that is why Obama has surged in North Carolinaand Virginia. Those two states have a high black population and a white population sensitive to charges of racism. Posted by: Jamie at October 15, 2008 02:46 PM (I8BSp) 67
MCPO, thank you for that image that I can't now get out of my head.
Posted by: Pam at October 15, 2008 02:46 PM (bj062) 68
19
jjshaka ... yeah, but if McCain takes both MN and PA, it's over for obamacorn.
He is down 2 according to a Obama Internal poll. IF he is down 2 on election Day McCain will win Pa. Don't forget Wisconsin Posted by: PaRep at October 15, 2008 02:47 PM (dWdDN) 69
Has McCain ever held a lead in the polls? Not being coy, I just don't
remember that he has. Did his numbers get over Obama's after the
convention?
Yes. Depending on which poll you looked at, the McCain-Palin ticket held a 3%-5% lead for 2-3 weeks. Posted by: physics geek at October 15, 2008 02:47 PM (MT22W) 70
Kimberly-
I would love for MN and PA to be in play but the corruption may be too much to overcome, especially in Philly. This whole race comes down to this- McCain must win FL, OH, VA,MO, NV and CO. If he loses NV he must pick up ME or NH or NM. It gonna be tough because MCCain has more iffy must-wins. It's doable but everything is going to have to break right, including the Bradley Effect. Posted by: jjshaka at October 15, 2008 02:57 PM (o8Mg9) 71
i am not sure if anyone noticed or not, but McCain has only started building a presidential transition team within the last week. Considering the conventional wisdom he would want to use every dime on his campaign rather than speculating on his administration, I would take it as a sign Team Maverick has just suddenly gotten a renewed notion they can win.
Posted by: Jamie at October 15, 2008 03:02 PM (I8BSp) 72
Obama is running ads on tv and radio at a rate of at least 50-1 here in Northern Virginia. I watched 10 hours of football on Sunday and saw dozens of Obama ads all day long. Zero McCain ads. In the morning on the way to work I hear Obama ads every time the station I'm listening to at the time goes to break. Zero McCain ads. If McCain let's Obama steal Virginia we're screwed. Screwed I tell you. If any of you morons live in Virginia, please contact your local Victory Head Quarters and start volunteering as often as possible. If you live in the DC area you can go to the national headquarters in Crystal City and volunteer. Make phone calls, do door to door on Saturdays. Whatever you have to do. Let's get out and keep Virginia red. This is the line we have to hold. Same goes for all of you morons in Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.....actually in every state that can possibly be considered a battleground state. Posted by: t.ferg at October 15, 2008 03:03 PM (2YVh7) 73
Has Zogby called the race yet? Or is he going to wait until noon on election day?
Posted by: Steve L. at October 15, 2008 03:04 PM (o0YD+) 74
PaRep-
It will be interesting to see Barrys team and how they conduct themselves regarding certain states. If that internal poll is 2 percent it will be interesting to see how much ad buys and visits he makes the next 3 weeks in PA. You're right that Minnesota and Wisconsin are winnable- I just loath any purple state with a large student population - it always translates to a close loss in presidential races. Posted by: jjshaka at October 15, 2008 03:05 PM (o8Mg9) 75
Both campaigns are living HERE!!!! I'm telling you, Watch were the campaigns go that tells you the state of the race
Posted by: PaRep at October 15, 2008 03:09 PM (dWdDN) 76
Thanks Railwriter!
Posted by: bitter, clinging Pennsylvanian at October 15, 2008 03:10 PM (bd68Z) 77
It amazes me how conservatives can see news reporting and plainly understand how embarrassingly in the tank for Obama the press is, then when the same legacy media outlets put out a poll they buy it and start bowing like Muslims at the space rock. What the hell? Show a little discernment will you?
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 15, 2008 03:10 PM (0+Ggj) 78
I'm in San Diego and I watch mostly Fox News, but once in a while I will have on CNN for several straight hours. I have NEVER seen an Obama ad. I've seen a few McCain ads and plenty of pro-McCain/anti-Obama by outside groups. There are also lots of Obama bumper stickers---mostly on Prius cars and run down dirty piece-of-shit cars driven by college students.. I don't know a single Republican stupid enough to put a McCain sticker on their car or a sign in their yard because they are afraid of reprisals by angry nutcase liberals. We're pretty much in the closet over here.
Posted by: Suzy at October 15, 2008 03:11 PM (61Hv+) 79
I can vouch with PaRep being here in Pa as well. PaRep Ican't believe Mccain isn't running adds reminding us how we "cling to our religion, guns and antipathy to anyone who isn't like us" THAT BASTARD. I get so mad when I remember that....
Posted by: bitter, clinging Pennsylvanian at October 15, 2008 03:12 PM (bd68Z) 80
Why aren't 527 groups running Rev Wright ads????
Posted by: bitter, clinging Pennsylvanian at October 15, 2008 03:13 PM (bd68Z) 81
Posted by: jjshaka at October 15, 2008 02:57 PM (o8Mg9) Amen. Although I would note that based on the 2004 electoral map, McCain could spot Obama 16 of Bush's electoral votes and still win. So if he lost two out of these three: NV, NM, and CO, but held the line everywhere else we would still win. Another point to note is that Kerry won a few states by very thin margins so McCain may be able to pick off at least one of them: *Wisconsin: Kerry won by .04% In any case we all need to be out there doing all we can to keep this from even being close. Posted by: t.ferg at October 15, 2008 03:15 PM (2YVh7) 82
79
I can vouch with PaRep
being here in Pa as well. PaRep Ican't believe Mccain isn't running
adds reminding us how we "cling to our religion, guns and antipathy to
anyone who isn't like us" THAT BASTARD. I get so mad when I remember
that....
Patience Young Grasshopper !! Posted by: PaRep at October 15, 2008 03:16 PM (dWdDN) 83
I think after Hillary "upset " the Messiah in PA it would be worth it for McCain to fight for PA to the end.
Can the rest of the state overcome 120% of Philly voting for Barry? Thanks again to the PC Bush Justice department for ignoring this massive Philadelphia vote fraud. Posted by: jjshaka at October 15, 2008 03:16 PM (o8Mg9) 84
Regarding VA-- I lived in Alexandria during the last few presidential cycles and it's been BLUE for a long time. However, what I'm hearing from many friends in other parts of the state is that Obama has no chance in hell (except with the black vote-which he will get no matter what). Before Palin, they were going to hold their noses and vote for McCain. Now they are highly motivated because they fell Palin understands people like them.
Posted by: Suzy at October 15, 2008 03:25 PM (61Hv+) 85
t.ferg-
Those are close margins so that hopeful-. especially NH since it would be a big early win election night. It would be nice if McCain could use 2 lines tonite- Bitter clingers and Spread the wealth- clueless and elitist. Posted by: jjshaka at October 15, 2008 03:26 PM (o8Mg9) 86
The description of Virginia sounds a lot like NC. Way more TV ads for Obama than McCain and way more lawn signs. NC has had a Dem Governor since 1988, but has voted Republican for president pretty consistently. This is partly due to the holdover traditional Democrat stronghold in the South and the Dems putting up very centrist, good ole boy gubernatorial candidates.
Both McCain and Palin have made recent appearances here for the first time since the primaries and McCain is coming back Saturday. That tells me he's starting to take the state seriously, but also that it is in jeoprady of being lost. Posted by: Dudley Smith at October 15, 2008 03:29 PM (0S8Xt) 87
I'm an old, bitter, gun-clinging, trailer-living, white female PUMA who may be "low information", but I have a high enough IQ to know an effete phony when I see one. And you can put lipstick on a sewer rat, it's true, but it'll still smell like shit. I will be voting straight Republican ticket because I've had it with the Democrats. And I know a lot of other women who will do the same. This MSM crap about thewomen democrats coming home to Obama is horse hooey of the highest stink.
Posted by: Sharon at October 15, 2008 03:31 PM (xmZ6W) Posted by: bitter, clinging Pennsylvanian at October 15, 2008 03:41 PM (bd68Z) 89
WAY TO GO SHARON!!! TAKE SOME FRIENDS ALONG
Posted by: bitter, clinging Pennsylvanian at October 15, 2008 03:42 PM (bd68Z) 90
Registed voters? Bwahahaha! Isn't it possible that a chunk of these voters are Acorn related? If they are, how likely is it that they're legit and can be converted to votes? If these polls include even some of the masses registered by Acorn (which would lean Dem and therefore more are polled) and its still this close it would seem McCain is doing better than it looks. The polls are crap.
A more likely concern is election night and if the networks make calls too eary which could discourage late in the day McCain voters. We lose focus by getting lost in the muck. The man is first, a Democrat. Second, an extremely liberal Democrat (we're still a center-right country). McCain should focus on that plus his utter lack of qualifications to be president based on his government experience, and what Obama would do as president based on his own words and past actions. McCain already has the base plus our friends who identify themselves as PUMAS. Time to gather the floaters. Time is short! Posted by: Swegin at October 15, 2008 03:47 PM (q0Z3p) 91
Suzy at October 15, 2008 03:25 PM (61Hv+) Yeah I live in Alexandria and I definitely know I'm in deep blue territory. Last weekend though I went campaigning out west of Manassas along with a bus load of people from the RNC. It was exactly opposite - deep red and very much in favor of McCain. The thing I'm afraid of though is that the Beltway area of Virginia is now a big enough population center to outvote the rest of the state. I wish McCain would at least try to compete in NOVA in order to give the rest of the state a fighting chance at overcoming the blue voters in this area. Posted by: t.ferg at October 15, 2008 03:51 PM (2YVh7) Posted by: frito at October 15, 2008 03:55 PM (aOtNl) 93
McCain should also bring up what "world leaders" have endorsed Obama? Doesn't that include Chavez, the Castro brothers and the Iranian Ack man to name a few?
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frito,
Come up with anything that Obama has actually done that would qualifies him for the Presidency yet? You've had 2 months to think about this. You must have something by now! Posted by: wiserbud at October 15, 2008 04:10 PM (IHbof) 95
McCain has to change his campaign to appeal to the moderate and independent voters. Without them, he hasn't a chance. Posted by: Tinian at October 15, 2008 04:18 PM (Ohodx) 96
I keep insisting (and I hope I'm right, natch), that the white union voters in Philly are NOT going to vote Obama, AT ALL. This will cancel out much of the vote fraud going on the the rest of the city, which is majority black but not overtly so.
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And here's our favorite Dem, John Murtha, inadvertently helping McCain in PA..
http://tinyurl.com/4umobq Posted by: Dr. Remulak at October 15, 2008 04:34 PM (YmPwQ) 98
Fuck the poles. I have never believed them and I never will.................. But some of you sit around and shit yourselves everyday reading that POLE bullshit and then turn around and take a crap on McCain. WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE? Son Of A Bitch, what a shit load of defeatists you all are. You wouldn't have lasted a GODDAMN week in the unit I was in.......you would have been dead, badged & tagged and flown home.
Carry on. Posted by: Old Hippie Vet at October 15, 2008 04:41 PM (dzE9C) 99
Poles, Scandis - is this a foreign policy blog or a moron blog?
Posted by: Bel Aire at October 15, 2008 06:08 PM (ocHBO) 100
The GOP brought this situation on itself by protecting and promoting a progressive tax system. If 40% of the population doesn't pay taxes can we guess how much of this constitutes the dhimmierat base?
If the GOP had any balls it would propose a flat 10%, no deductions, across the board constitutional amendment. Doing this would also force states to alter how they do their financing. Posted by: Thomas Jackson at October 15, 2008 06:23 PM (5ySCu) 101
Suzy, t.ferg: Good to see some fellow Alexandrians! Looks pretty grim here; maybe the rest of the state can come through. I'm pretty resigned to an Obama victory in Virginia--just looks like too much erosion of the GOP in the state over the years...
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