1 *Facepalm*

2

What does this button d-

3 I'm betting all of that will change after the debates. Obama is a fool and Biden can't stop his mouth from running.

4 No flaming skull?

Chill.  This thing's got a while to run it's course.  And 4 debates to go. 

5 Not buying it. 48-43 maybe, 52-46 even. 8 point lead? Total bullshit.
Read the story, the only demographic that doesn't favor Obama now is members of the McCain/Palin families.

6

So swing voter bloc has shrunk to 5%?

also from the story:

 

A substantial hurdle for Obama is the widespread public skepticism about whether he would make a good commander in chief. On that question, he has made no significant headway in allaying voters' concerns.

 

As always, we would like to see the poll's methodology.

7 And Ace, I know you poo-poo talk of oversampling, etc., but seriously -- their sample is 38% Dems and 28% Republicans? Yeah, I bet Obama is getting good numbers out of that sample.

8 I sure hope Steve Schmidt is ready to go hardcore on ads putting blame where it's due. The campaign seems to have been on autopilot for the last week or two; we need to get back to invading Obama's OODA loop and staying on offense 24/7.

And dear GOD does McCain have to hammer this home during the debates. I hope he's getting good prep.

9 The public are stupid.

For fuck sakes. An unaccomplished lawyer who constantly votes present, and a Democrat who wants to raise taxes in a huge way, and this will fix the economy.

Dumb fucks.

10 Yeah, if they only knew that the whole thing was an affirmative action scam based on ghetto real estate lending by Swiss banks that caused the whole G-D world credit system to fail.

We don't need $700 billion for a bailout - hell, give me $100 billion and I'll buy all the ghettos in America and it will be big pimpin'

Sheesh.  When is your wisdom going to be recognized, Ace?

11 Remember that McCain was up by ten points in one poll not too long ago.  Rasmussen has them tied and Gallup has a three point gap.  I don't buy this poll at all.

12 So, Mr. Um Ah Freddie Mae Er Uh Mac Fannie is who Americans think should be Prez in an economy like this? Maybe Bill Maher is right. Americans are too stupid to make the right decision. Let us hope sanity prevails in six weeks. Me, I'm hiding in a bunker.

13

yeah the more I think about it, the more I call BS on the WaPoll.

"Hello, I'm conducting a poll for the Washington Post and ABC News. First question: knowing that John McCain dropped napalm on helpless villagers in Vietnam and has helped himself to US Treasury funds as a Senator, who do you feel will be better able to fix the economy after 8 years of disastrous mismanagement by Republicans- John McCain who is George Bush's fishing buddy or Barack Obama who promises rainbows and free shit and is just a wonderful wonderful person?"

14

FWIW

NET LEANED PARTY:

Democrat    54   

Republican  38 

Independent  7

Anyway, I'm skipping Hot Air until Friday. Just sayin' is all.

15 Ace, ignore those polls, they're meaningless.

According to the latest Gallup internals, McCain is dominating Obama where it counts: the most crucial group,  pure independents.

And the numbers keep improving over the last three weeks, probably due to Sarah Palin.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108049/Candidate-Support-Political-Party-Ideology.aspx

What you're looking at here is a blowout for McCain/Palin.

16

fiatboomer-

No kidding. Allahpundit will be in full meltdown mode. I can't believe he hasn't logged on just to post a "heartache" post. He denies it but he is the most successful "self-trolling" blogger in the biz.

17 "And dear GOD does McCain have to hammer this home during the debates. I hope he's getting good prep.

Posted by: RajivVindaloo at September 24, 2008 12:46 AM (TAmTy)"

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080923/D93CMTM00.html

"McCain is showing more confidence with a full schedule this week that leaves less time for preparations. His advisers said they saw no reason to clear his calendar to prepare, given the Arizona Republican's decades-long experience on foreign affairs issues and his years of debating colleagues in the Senate."

Feeling better?

18 "No kidding. Allahpundit will be in full meltdown mode. I can't believe he hasn't logged on just to post a "heartache" post. He denies it but he is the most successful "self-trolling" blogger in the biz.

Posted by: TBinSTL at September 24, 2008 12:55 AM (2vLkB)"

Nah, just the most rigorously intellectually honest.

19 "Feeling better?"

No. I want a pony.

20 If the public only knew.

Which I'm sure the press will do their best to make sure never happens.

21 Wizbang's look at the internals of the Gallup poll provides a nice counterpoint to WaPo: http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php. 

22 Curious: Where did you guys find the internals for the poll? I just looked at the story very quickly, so don't mind me if I totally glossed over it.

23 And Ace, I know you poo-poo talk of oversampling, etc., but seriously -- their sample is 38% Dems and 28% Republicans? Yeah, I bet Obama is getting good numbers out of that sample.
Posted by: kteemac at September 24, 2008 12:46 AM (AdSnX)

38% dems to 28% republicans? Are they even trying to pretend to be responsible? Or are they so certain that ACORN is going to bring this baby home that they think they'd better prep us all in advance?

24 A 16-point gap for the Jackasses? This poll is just crap. Also, keep in mind if it was done over the weekend, it always favors Demonrats.

25 In the same poll last election on Sept 27, Bush was up 6.

Not that that means a whole lot.

26 This should make everyone feel better, some juicy red meat:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/the_man_who_never_was.html

27 "The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again—Barack Obama attracts 48% of the vote and so does John McCain"

28 honest question: the phone rings, you pick it up, and the voice on the other end says "hello, we're calling for the Washington Post, and ..."

that's all I'd hear, because I'd hang up. bad idea, I guess?

29 Nothing wrong with this poll, or any of the others, for that matter. This is just a very tough election to gauge, from a pollster's standpoint.

It's anyone's guess as to who "likely voters" really are. There's a large block of citizens who waver, day to day, from "undecided but leaning Obama" to "undecided but leaning against Obama." There's no way to tell how many of these will actually turn up and vote, and if they do, what they'll do.

Exit polls and actual results may well differ by double digits in some areas, leading Obama supporters to scream "fraud" to the high heavens, should he lose. At the same time, there will be a record number of "undocumented" voters, and phantom voters, leading McCain supporters to shake their heads and sigh, should he lose.

Personally, I don't see a way in hell that McCain can take Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin -- the fraud machines in Detroit, Philly, and Milwaukee will be operating at many times the levels that they were in 2004, and will provide insurmountable margins. Ohio, likewise, will be tough, for the same reason. Iowa's a lost cause. McCain's opposition to Ethanol, the Farm Bill, and commodities trading provide a triple whammy that doom him in that state.

Weirdly, my best hopes for McCain are on the left coast. If he can pull a surprise in either Oregon or Washington, he stands a chance.

Remember, you heard it here first, from the guy whose prognostication skills are so good that he couldn't even remember to make any picks in last weekend's NFL poll....

30 No sale.

31 The WaPo has rigged the poll's internals, as has every poll since 4 days after Palin.  They are running scared and trying to create a story about how the country is swaying toward Obabmi in a time of econ crisis.  Absolute bullshit.  Allah, if you're reading, don't get down.  THat's what they're trying to do. 

Best result?  This continuing tactic makes the college fraudsters so overconfident that they forget to vote three times.  40 states go McCain.

32

Not that the economic news is going to swing things McCain's way until he starts hitting back hard on Fannie/Freddie, but the poll is BS...

The party affiliation numbers are nowhere close to what any other poll is saying or what we know to be the actual registration numbers. Besides, your undecideds/independents aren't going to swing that quickly this far out from the election without even having had a single debate in such large numbers - especially when Gallup and Rasmussen are actually trending slightly McCain over the last few days.

I put this somewhere just below the Newsweek poll that showed Obama with a 15 point lead earlier this election season: not raging bullshit, just a messy pile of it. I'd have to see Gallup and Rasmussen both swinging wildly to the Obama side before I even believed the difference between the two candidates was even half that big.

33 Furthermore, I haven't seen a "likely voter" poll (one involving only those who voted in the last two elections) since July.

Coincidence?

34 I don't buy it, especially with Rasmussen having them tied and Gallup having Obama only up by 3.

Here's hoping DJ Drummond over at Wizbang finds time to do a thorough fisking of this poll.

35 You can ignore this poll.  It's not from a trustworthy source.

Franklin Raines told me so.

36

well, guess what will be the lead story all day tomorrow. :-(

Obama is carpetbombing Philly TV with lying attack ads including one about a Corning plant that Corning has protested.  I still say he is not acting like he is ahead.  But I fear that the media are never going to call him on his lies.  It kills me to see any poll in which a majority think he is honest and trustworthy.

Once the financial bailout is done and the debates start, this bounce will end.

37
Wasn't Mr. Zero up by as much 15 points (Newsweek?) a while back?
Then it drifted down to a tie?
He's up by 9 points so we seen this movie before.
Gotta wait till after the debate(s) that when the poles matters.
McCain has to skullfuck bambi with a retard stick at the debates.

38 Total fodder...the MSM will be all over this poll, which is utter BS.

39

If this poll is true, and it holds, I weep for the future of this country.

Not because they elected a Democrat, or even a liberal, but because they bought the bullshit.  Magicians are not miracle workers; they're frauds.

40 The methodology looks suspect to me, too. If the pool of those polled identifies as 38% Democratic, 28% Republican, and 29% independent, with 46% of the independents leaning Democratic I don't see how there can be any other result but for the Democrat to be ahead.

I certainly am not an expert on any of this so perhaps I missed something.

41

Notice they did  not even poll on Joe Biden.  His extreme fuckups this week have shown that he is the one least prepared to be President.

The internals also seem to imply that all the Hillary voters have swing back to Obama.  I'm not buying that at all. 

42 I'm not buying it either. Rasmussen has McCain gaining a point in the tracking. I kinda seem to remember these shock polls in 2000 and 04 too.

43 Sinking feeling

44

This might be one of the worst polls ever.

38 dem

28 rep

29 indy's who lean 46 dem and 28 rep. Bogus.

45

rockmom @#36: Obama is carpetbombing Philly TV with lying attack ads including one about a Corning plant that Corning has protested.

I'm getting those ads here in South Bend, Indiana (motto: Where The Pigs Are Sexy Enough Without Lipstick).

Where are you reading that Corning is calling bullshit on these ads?

46 My lingering fucking head trauma must be worse than I thought. The guy sits around for a week handling only himself and the public suddenly thinks he can handle the economy better? Not buyin' it. WaPo's random sampling must come solely from a Barney Frank wieners and wine tasting.

47 You think this is bad, wait until the next Newsweek poll when Obama's up by a gajillion billion points.  It'll be right after the debate and Newsweek almost literally polls their employees.  The MSM will jump on it like sharks on chum.

48 New Zogby poll has Obama 47-44. McCain leads 2-1 on the Commander in Chief question.  It just isn't important this week, but that will settle back to normal by next week.

49

      Nah, just the most rigorously intellectually honest.

      Posted by: Purple Fury at September 24, 2008 12:57 AM (Fu0ST)

My ass. With the exception of about one or two days after the GOP convention, the dude's been calling the election over for over a year straight. In fact, McCain hasn't just already lost to Obama, he had already lost to Hillary last year.

So I'll go back to Hot Air in a couple of days after most of the blood has been cleaned off the floor and the ritual wakizashi is back on the wall.

50 Wanna know a secret? It's a cool one.

You know how the pollsters can claim they're close in every election?

SHOTGUN POLL RESULTS!

How could one of these results NOT resemble the vote? They're all over the damned place! It's the SAME trick scamming "prophets" do, they make 100 random predictions then hammer the crowd with the one that seemed to come true.

Hell, the polls change so much in one week, they're giving themselves a 10 percent margin of error before they count their declared margin of error.

The polls don't match the vote except by accident, and the MSM and the pollsters have spent years trying to convince you otherwise. Polls are cheap titillation, and every time they swing the MSM and the pollsters get more attention and money.

51 Dewey Defeats Truman!

I won't post a link because I can't embed one using my mac.

52

38 dem

28 rep

29 indy's who lean 46 dem and 28 rep. Bogus.

This is why Gore and Kerry were so projected to win.

53

Where are you reading that Corning is calling bullshit on these ads?

Posted by: INCITEmarsh at September 24, 2008 01:37 AM (ULsz9)

 

http://www.wetmtv.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=ba3fc702-938a-4760-af0d-9ea147e5018f

Corning blasts Obama ad

54

I seem to remember exit polling on Election Day 2004 had everyone predicting President Kerry walking away winning in a landslide. Plus, Kerry lead in most polls the week before by a few points in the national average.

Oops.

The polls are bullshit and will remain bullshit until about a week before the election when everything 'tightens up' and the media wants to build some drama. This is gonna be close no matter what, within 2-5 percentage points on the Popular Vote nationally.

The only way McCain is going to surge ahead and stay there is if he absolutely tears Obama's head off and exposes him as a dipshit in the debates. Given McCain's 'play nice' attitude with most Dems, I ain't holding my breath. Personally, I'd rather see Palin vs. Obama.

55 How is it that "independents" lean nearly 2-1 to the Mediacrats? Isn't that just another way of saying they're Mediacrats? I'm sure a poll at Invesco field last month would have been pretty close to a 100% for Barry. But that's not a poll; it's propaganda.

I repeat my statement of earlier: This poll is crap. So is the WaPo for that matter.

56 What a surprise, the moby-ed racist comment that was just up here came from an IP address in Chicago.

38.101.154.106

57 Cleanup in isle 56.

58 I picked a REALLY bad time to stop drinking.

59 You guys go for headfakes from bobblehead dolls, eh?

Repeat after me: polls are meaningless till after the debates.

60
The polls don't match the vote except by accident, and the MSM and the pollsters have spent years trying to convince you otherwise. Polls are cheap titillation, and every time they swing the MSM and the pollsters get more attention and money.
Posted by: Merovign at September 24, 2008 01:40 AM (UXoQt)

Thanks for saying that Merovign. I agree, opinion polls are really nothing but entertainment. These companies try to make it sound like they are scientific, but they aren't any more scientific than the global warming "consensus" folks, IMHO.

61 On second thought, those numbers on party identification come from people randomly selected:

"This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 19-22, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,082 adults, 916 registered voters and 780 likely voters."

I guess I expect there to be more people identifying as Republican and more independents leaning that way, but of course my expectations could be off.

62 The published polls are crap. The candidates' internal polls are much more accurate -- but they're not disclosed....except by candidate behavior.

McCain always goes limp when his back isn't up against the wall. Obama flails when the fix isn't in.

Last week: McCain limp and Obama flailing = McCain's leading in both candidates' internal polls.

63 bilby: I suspect WaPo/ABC News get to define 'random' the same way they get to define 'Bush Doctrine'.

64

OK, upon further review this poll does rather stink, like stale french fries. Something doesn't add up.

22 September Hotline poll:

    With regard to perceived performance on the economy, McCain continues to close in on Obama's lead, which has decreased from a 5-point lead in the September 20 Poll, to a 1-point advantage in today's Poll, (43% - 42%).

 

65 The only thing I love more than licking balls is licking unwashed balls.

66 Obama 52
McCain 43
Bullshit 100
MoE ± ∞

For WaPo's next poll, they'll be querying all reporters registered independents in their local news bureau who have donated more than $4,599.99 to the DNC in the past six months.

67 Gee, Diderot, or Dog or whatever, you seem to forget one of the best STOOPIDS(TM) of all. There was this guy with a big toothy grin who was elected in 1976. Then again, maybe he was just far off the STOOPID Scale that you couldn't calibrate it.

68 Oh and I lick Axel's ROD too, 7 bucks an hour.

69 Digeridoo, I'm sure that out of that 15 million, a goodly number came from ACORN (or similar organizations), yes?

fuck off cheesedick

70 Please tell me Doo-doo, what EXACTLY gives you confidence in Obama's ability to lead the country.  I'm not asking how he is better (I'll grant that he's a better ideological fit for lefties).  What exaclty, given his past "accomplishments" suggests to you that this man is in any way competent to lead the free world?

I have never gotten a good answer on that from anyone.

71

Too many Dems can't afford caller ID I guess.  Let's see... Ryder Cup, NFL or talking to some guy from obtuse company name and strange area code.  That's a tough one, eh?

But, considering economy - who the hell were those 9% who considered it "good or excellent, anyway? - I was also shocked at McCain being all but even on Rasmussan and picking up a point on Gallup today.

With the beating taken over last week on msm I'm happy to believe we're in striking distance... cause once my "Voter Suppression" classes get a new venue due to heightened demand we're off to Michigan with a truckload of filterless cigarettes and flyers about the election on Wednesday November 4th.

72 Can't wait till Pres Obama chooses his Supreme Court picks. Roe v Wade will never be overturned.

73 #43,

Allah?  How YOU doin'?

74 U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman said the massive government bailout of failing financial institutions is not only necessary but could make money for the federal government. “The government could make 10 or 20 times what it pays on this, possibly,” Coleman said during a campaign stop at Christy’s Cafe in North Mankato Saturday morning. And the "Iraq war will pay for itself"

75 A true random sample of 1000 people on a single question will be accurate 95% of the time, generally.  Those numbers are close enough to guess. 

But no polls ARE random, and "weighting" has made polls vehicles for manipulating opinion, not determining it.  Asking multiple questions adds another layer of manipulation, as questions are answered in context, and these polls are often written, even unconsciously, to suggest answers to people.

cthulhu is right, the behavior is indicative of actual numbers.

BO is falling behind.  I love how when he gets rattled, he says tupod stuff.  ANyone see the Lauer interview?  An actual question from Lauer (not a boot lick)--didn't Biden say the same thing as McCain"-- elicits a near violent reaction from the One.

76 Oh, ace you clever bastard.

I thought the "our country's doomed" was a joke, and that someone with admin rights was fucking around.  Hence the IP address (whosit is interesting on that)

I had no idea "billy" was actually a poster

77 Well, the Maverick wants ANDREW CUOMO as SEC Chair.

What else can one expect if he dives in the polls.

What a mindless Beltway Celebrity Senator...

78 I think Paulsen made a deal with the guilty congress to let the oil ban expire, and they're going to pass it. Everyone knows where this mess started, and we should just get this over with so we can solve this mess.  Bush addressed this 17 times! and congress did nothing.  McCain should stand behind Paulsen, and stand firm so we can turn Washington up side down for the next 4 years.  If Obama  doesnt  scare you, than this nothing.

79 We're advising our clients to put everything into canned food and shotguns.

80 "Bush addressed this 17 times! and congress did nothing."

That's the first time I saw that datum... I've seen the 2003 NY Times article but didn't know about 17 times.  And I've been in a conversation where that little nugget would be -invaluable- ammunition.  Could you supply a link, please?

Qwinn

81 Qwinn...

"President Bush publicly called for GSE reform 17 times in 2008 alone before Congress acted."

Just the Facts: The Administration's Unheeded Warnings About the Systemic Risk Posed by the GSEs

82

"If the public only knew."

It's what the American public *doesn't* know that makes them the American public.

83 All this talk about polls and McCain spooking Obama makes me long for the good ol' days of the Celebrity ads. I wish McCain would blast out something really harsh to rattle Obambi before Friday.

I'm also posting this because I want to see what the timestamp will be.

84

This needs to be hammered into action:  The left leaning liberal lackeys legislated failure.  We're the Republicans, we've been calling for oversight, and we're going to lead America out of this irresponsible mess.

The 'bailout' will come to be, and we should totally PWN it.  We get the right people in there overseeing the program, and we can actually make money off of this thing.  Restructure the loans.  Soft land the hard write downs.  We valuate this paper right, and we can make a profit, and show that Repubs can handle fiscal better in 5 years when we float stable paper back on the market.

Or we can all sit around and cry in our beers about the 'perfect conservative world' when commercial paper freezes, companies go crashing down, credit freezes, and we find out how  a nation of 300 million with at least 230 million firearms fares in economic *crisis*.

85 "If the public only knew  gave a shit."

there....fixed it

86 Mommy i do a parf a grafs.

see? i do it mommy! i dood it!

87 This is insane . . . what is it the dumb bastards in this poor sick country want? More taxes and more corrupt dealings from Obama. Anybody that thinks this wormy little Marxist can do anything constructive for this nation is absolutely insane. Get ready for the Socialist States of America to turn into just another third world country.

88 Again, McCain could get in front of this by telling the American people there are troubled times ahead, and this is not the time to gamble on inexperience.

89 All you need to know about this Washington Post poll is that it's internals are more skewed to Democrats than the Daily Kos poll.

WaPo: 38% Dems and 28% Republicans  (10 points for the Dems)

Daily Kos: 35% Dems and 26% Republicans (9 points for the Dems)


You know you're in trouble when the freaking Daily Kos is closer to reality than the Washington Post.

90

The methodology looks suspect to me, too. If the pool of those polled identifies as 38% Democratic, 28% Republican, and 29% independent, with 46% of the independents leaning Democratic I don't see how there can be any other result but for the Democrat to be ahead.

This distribution really means nothing taken by itself.  More importantly, the numbers we need to see are the numbers they use to adjust these percentages for "known" party affiliations.  For example, if the polster believes that actual party affiliation is 38 D - 35 R, he would adjust the results of Rs up and keep Ds the same.  The numbers of people in the poll who self-identify mean little without that data.

91 wuh tee eff ???????????????
Is that remedial education paying off or what?  Diderot's Dung learned how to make paragraphs?  What NEXT?
These are the End Times, folks.  Make your peace.

92 Do not believe these media polls. They are invalid, unreliable, biased and pure mathematical garbage. If their samples were representative of the population as a whole you would not see these nearly instantaneous and significant shifts that the media reports on a daily basis. These polls are part of the left's media propaganda machines and are designed to influence, not to inform. I will admit that the left is skilled in the art of deception but if you know their intent then you won’t fall victim to their subterfuge.

93 A Washington post Poll?  Pleeeeez.  They are scared shitless and are doing this only to make the nutroots feel better.  McCain is going to STOMP Obama

94 Nah, just the most rigorously intellectually honest.

Posted by: Purple Fury at September 24, 2008 12:57 AM (Fu0ST)

I would say it has more to do with being clever at generating traffic.

95

Eh, another poll.  I will start panic-running into walls a week or so before the election.

96 DD's ramblings are a distraction. Maybe ace can put the name at the top of the comments, so we can immediately skip DD's wonderous pontifications. However enlightening they may be--I simply don't have the time.

97 Diderot's Dung learned how to make paragraphs?  What NEXT?

Learning to write well enough to put something worthwhile in them.

98 These polls are like instantaneous miles-per-gallon gauges in your car. When you're driving downhill on a perfect day with the wind at your back they tell you your SUV is getting 99MPG. But when you figure it out at the next fill-up, you find the real number is more like 17MPG. The latter is the real, core number, while the former is a phantom number based on momentary conditions that cannot be sustained. There are still huge percentages of people who are undecided. I wouldn't worry about it.

99 The only polls that count are the ones on election day.

100 If in such a statistically sewed poll like this, and all Obama can muster is a 10 point lead, than he's in serious trouble.

101

The sample size

54% - Dem

38% - GOP

7% - Indy

102

FWIW

NET LEANED PARTY:

Democrat    54   

Republican  38 

Independent  7

One simple Question answers the Question who is winning, Answer why would WaPo & other polls put out so obviously biased polls?, Because they know Obama is getting his clock cleaned

103 100 If in such a statistically sewed poll like this, and all Obama can muster is a 10 point lead, than he's in serious trouble.

Absolutely correct

104
BO is falling behind.  I love how when he gets rattled, he says tupod stuff.  ANyone see the Lauer interview?  An actual question from Lauer (not a boot lick)--didn't Biden say the same thing as McCain"-- elicits a near violent reaction from the One.

Posted by: higgedly piggedly at September 24, 2008 03:12 AM (OeLz9)

when was that?

Hiya billy!  I guess it's not a surprise that a concerned Christian conservative like you is so concerned about Roe v Wade.  Gosh, aren't we all?

105

McCain is bound and determined to lose this by acting like the RINO he is. Wether the poll is bogus it is clear he has lost the momentum.

He learned nothing from the Palin pick ( act like a conservative) and then touts Andrew Coumo for God's sake for SEC and refuses to unload on the Democrat legislation that initiated this debacle.

But he'll rip Wall Street because that what populists do, but give his buddies in Congress a pass.

Barry" lite" is a loser, dumbass.

106

Assuming that they used decent random sampling, the distribution of people by party ID could be random sampling error.

That does happen about as many times as rolling a natural 1 on a 1d20.

Anyeay, it has a margin of error of about 4% so that means the real lead could be as small as 1 percentage point (that is subtract 4 from Obama and add 4 to McCain or 48-47). That 1 point difference matches other tracking polls.

Of course that margin of error also means it could be 56-38 in favor of Obama.

Still, with all the grumbling from the right about McCain's response to the bailout, that has got to hurt him some.

Lets see how the debates play out and how effective Team McCain with those events.

107

McCain is bound and determined to lose this by acting like the RINO he is. Wether the poll is bogus it is clear he has lost the momentum.

He learned nothing from the Palin pick ( act like a conservative) and then touts Andrew Coumo for God's sake for SEC and refuses to unload on the Democrat legislation that initiated this debacle.

But he'll rip Wall Street because that what populists do, but give his buddies in Congress a pass.

Barry" lite" is a loser, dumbass.

YOU ARE AN UNMITIGATED MORON !!!!!!!!!! Rasmussen has it tied 48% to 48%, Battlegroung tracking Poll has McCain ahead 48% to 46%

108 Allahpundit:  the leader among concern trolls?

109

So, McCain should be tarred and feathered because he's not out there screaming about Dodd and Frank....but Bush gets a pass?

The buck stops where?

110

Everyone should relax.  This is a reaction poll to last week. It will gradually shift back.

Polls go up, polls go down.

111

Rasm

Obama-49

Macain-47

Very depressing

112 If they are rigging the polls to make Obama look better, and at the same time the public is concerned over Obama this could backfire big time as people get out and vote in large numbers our of fear of Obama

113 Diderot's Dung learned how to make paragraphs?

It's quite annoying actually. I used to be able to immediately identify it's insane babble by appearance of the comment alone and not waste any of my precious time reading any of it. Now I actually waste a few seconds reading the first sentence or so before I skip it.

114

Let's see McCain up in Mich by +3, tied in Penn, but here's another poll showing him down 9pts nationally.  Don't believe the National poll.  This is going to be a photo finish.  The country has been equally divided the last 10 years!

By the way, not sure what the margin of error is but remember a 4% margin of error swing both ways.  Obama's 52 could really be 48 and McCains 43 could be 47.  This poll has all the making of being an outliner.

Go McCain/Palin

Joe NYC

115 I'd actually like to have McCain running a little scared for the debates.

When he's feeling fat, dumb, and sassy, he gets into that "say anything that pops into my head cuz the media will cover for me" mindset (even though the MSM doesn't cover for him anymore), and says silly crap ala his Cuomo remark.

When he's forced to aim for conservative minds, he gets much more thoughtful and even wise, look at the Palin pick and his statements from around that time.

McCain unfortunately won't use it, but there's a very powerful "narrative" linking the current financial crisis, Dim senators including the One, kickbacks and false statements from Fannie and Freddie Dim hacks and Republican efforts to stop the crisis. It would force the media to cover the story if only to refute it.

116

Rasm

Obama-49

Macain-47

Very depressing

Why is that "Very Depressing"?? Obama has to be a MINIMUM of 55 to% ahead on election day to win

117 that was supposed to 5% to 8% ahead on election day to win

118 A bad trend. Mac needs to get pro active. Go on the offense. I live in Santa Monica, surrounded by the crazy socialist wackjobs.I try to talk reason to them but they are so blinded by there ideoligy they cant see the forest from the trees.

119

Look, this is a close election; not doubt about it.  I teach history, and I'm not one of those crazy professor's who think you can read the future by examining history.  Having said that, the last sixteen years reminds me so much of the mid and late 1800's politically.(with the exception of two term presidents; we have them, they didn't after Jackson) 

We are a divided nation for sure; elections are close and it drives us crazy, but what else can we do but work hard and try to convince enough people to vote for our guy and gal.  I hate it; I really would like to believe McCain will win in a landslide; it's so hard to believe that the American public would elect someone with so little experience and with such a liberal worldview.  But hey, we must understand it could happen.  God knows, I pray it doesn't!

120 118 A bad trend. Mac needs to get pro active. Go on the offense. I live in Santa Monica, surrounded by the crazy socialist wackjobs.I try to talk reason to them but they are so blinded by there ideoligy they cant see the forest from the trees.

Take your Paxil & Effexor EVERYDAY & try not to kill yourself O.K. ?

121

I haven't been polled since 1993, when I lived in an apartment. Who else here has been polled recently? I don't trust polls, cuz I never get polled. Who are these people they are polling? Themselves? The folks in the neighborhood? There are tons of polls out there, and you'd figure I'd get the call within the last 15 years, if these were truly random samples.

Also, I'm convinced polling is inherently inaccurate because how the polls are conducted. When the cute-sounding female voice on the other end sounds disappointed in your answer that you think Bill Clinton wasn't doing a great job, am I the only one who ever felt a strange desire to soften my follow up answers?

I think there is a gap between what people say to pollsters and what they do in the voting booth.

122

Doubtful. But still scares the crap out of me.

Hot Air has a post on the internals. Sample is way way skewed towards the dems. No question they were oversampled.

It's still frightening.

123 1. I agree with the rare few here who put a good dose of blame on McCain for showing his populist bambi colors when it comes to the economy? Why does he have to remind us why we didn't like him in the first place?

This a crisis that deserves a real leader with firm convictions to lead. Hopefully McCain will eventually decide to be that person.

Right now you morons are doing what liberals have done each time Bush won. "Americans are morons". Remember Friedman "I'd rather have the first 1000 people in thephone book lead than a single politiciant" or something like that.

The point is: where are people getting their info about this? The MSM and the candidates. And we know one of these isn't doing it's job. Regrettably more people dont get their news from aoshq. That leaves only McCain to explain the truth. And that jackhole has decided to punt on this issue.

But I'm not too phased by this poll. And I bet ace isn't either. He just wanted to rile up us morons here.

124 21

I haven't been polled since 1993, when I lived in an apartment. Who else here has been polled recently? I don't trust polls, cuz I never get polled. Who are these people they are polling? Themselves? The folks in the neighborhood? There are tons of polls out there, and you'd figure I'd get the call within the last 15 years, if these were truly random samples.

Also, I'm convinced polling is inherently inaccurate because how the polls are conducted. When the cute-sounding female voice on the other end sounds disappointed in your answer that you think Bill Clinton wasn't doing a great job, am I the only one who ever felt a strange desire to soften my follow up answers?

I think there is a gap between what people say to pollsters and what they do in the voting booth.

never been polled & I"m 44, Get calls from Unions thinking I was my Dad (God Rest His Soul) that was fun ripping the Union thug at the phonebank LOL!!

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What's PBS?  I know what PBR is, but that's just because I'm a drunk redneck with no teeth, is all.

 

129 http://tinyurl.com/4l9gj4

Polling from Michigan from a Michigan firm MRG

130 Let's see McCain up in Mich by +3, tied in Penn,

WHAT? up in Michigan?

131 where my comment?!!! >

132 o/t  diderot, W Allen's quote would be from Annie Hall...not Take the Money & Run.  For future reference in case you ever find yourself on a game show & need specifics.....

133 i have my binkie now?

134 McCain/Palin news Conference on Polling http://tinyurl.com/444czv

135

1.I can't find the 54/38/7 numbers in the WaPo's pdf of results, but even if you look at their 38/28/29, that still leaves 5% unaccounted for. What gives? And I really don't believe the -14 for McCain among independents, sounds a little extreme.

2.According to the US Census Bureau, the black population is 12.8% of the total US population. This would mean that WaPo should have reserved 139 "slots" for blacks, NOT 163. This will skew the poll results by about 2% alone, not including the skewed party representation.

On a separate note, check out the analysis of the InTrade results today on www.fivethirtyeight.com. They've noticed that someone is regularly (like several times a day) buying up McCain shares AND Hillary(!) shares. It may be a kook, but 538 wonders out loud about a danger to Obama. I think the more interesting possibility is that it's someone close to the Clintons or someone who knows of something extremely damaging to Obama that's planned to be released at some point. Hmmmm...

136 poopy!

137 poop!

138 Yeah PaREP, but you're forgetting about cell phones, dummy.  It's all cell phones these days!  Cell phones, cell phones, cell phones.  Oh, did I say cell phones, yep you guys are toast, because of, you guessed it, CELL PHONES.

139

Wow, D-mutt went and done got him some paragraphs.

We are fucking sunk.  Doomed.  Game over.

 

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143 Read the internals and you'll see that Democrats are oversampled by 10%.  Also, this poll contains the highest lead for Obama among the other polls compiled by RCP. I don't believe a word of it. 

144 Some of you may be familiar with the Pew Institute [if any of you have watched the Newshour with Jim Lehrer on PBS, you might have caught the senior director, Andy Kohut....jeez, sorry; I forgot where I am.]

Know your place and shut your fucking comrade mouth, you cocksucking commie-loving cur.

145 More BS in the Media http://tinyurl.com/3epsx3

146 Hey, DD and the rest of you troll-retards

  Even Team Obama thinks it's wrong:

UPDATE: McCain and Obama agree! In response to this post, Dan Pfeiffer of the Obama campaign emailed to say: "When the Post poll had us down 2 a few weeks ago, Plouffe went on the record and said the poll was wrong. We also think that this poll is wrong." He went on to say that although they aren't conducting national polls for the campaign, they believe an 11-point swing in two weeks is unrealistic in such a divided electorate.

147 Captain Hate

Brava!

148 they of course oversampled Democrats by 16 which means Obama is really losing by 7...heh!

149

Deep breath, everybody.

People's natural initial inclination is to blame the current president's party for anything bad. As people start to learn of Dodd's role and Obama's involvement, and how McCain supported a fix back in '05, things'll change.

We're only down by a touchdown with a lot left in the game.

150

There are 2 polls that you should look at and only these 2:

(1) Rasmussen

(2) Battleground (Tarrance group - Lake and Goeas)

Both polls are done with LIKELY VOTERS, have rolling averages, and have the best track records of any polls out there. For instance, Battleground poll showed the last minute shift to Gore in the last 2-3 days of the 2000 race. Rasmussen had begun to show the shift as well, though not as quickly.  Both Battleground and Rasmussen  were the closest to the actual vote in 2004.

151

52 minus 43 is 9: only a touchdown if the WFL had 2-point conversions. Sorry.

Anyways, remember how Kerry said "I can't believe I'm losing to this idiot"? I believe that; he was unable to believe he was losing. As a result, he cruised to defeat.

But I like polls like this. It forces McCain to play a no-huddle, two-minute drill.

152

It forces McCain to play a no-huddle, two-minute drill.

never mind.

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