1 This no talent assclown is that close to a war hero?

2 The poll's new motto:  I know nothing, I hear nothing, I see nothing..

3

The RCP average graph:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Looks like Obama is leveling off and McCain is rising again.

Polls go up, polls go down.

It won't mean much until early-to-mid next week, because there's a debate on Friday and weekend polls favor Democrats.

 

4 Who the hell are the morons who, seemingly on a daily basis, keep switching their party affiliation? This week I'm a Republican, next week a Democrat? Gimme a break! Just get with the program and make up your minds, sheesh.

5 On the party ID question, it would be interesting to ask the same 1000 people or so week to week.  Do people really switch their party ID back and forth?

6 I tend to think we've seen Barry's highwater mark in the polls.

The financial crisis has made it painfully obvious he couldn't find his ass with both hands, even if you spotted him one cheek, and McCain should be able to emphasize that on Friday in the debates.

Watch for the erosion over the next few days.

7 My Poll has stayed up since I saw Sarah in Dayton, thank you very much.
I really don't get how one can sway between," gee whiz the free market seems like a good idea, but look at how wildly successful socialism has been historically."

8 Ace,

The RCP maps look bad for McCain today.

Yes, I know, the polls go up, they go down, and yet, even if McCain wins PA/FL, he loses the election if VA/IN/OH go to Obama, that leaves them with 263 (as per the map looks right now) with WI/MN/CO/NH/NV in play.

WI/MN/CO/NH/NV and only 7 to win.

Despite Joe Biden trying to lose and Obama secretly trying to lose, or so we're told, they seem to be holding fast to winning.

9 i know nothing

10 Ever seen a flock of geese on the ground?

They clump together and rush from one side of the enclosure to the other at the drop of a hat, screeching and honking in total panic and hostility.

The electorate, Wall Street, Congress--all geese.

Is there such a thing as a goose herder?

A gooseherd?

That's what we need now.

11

If Obama's head suddenly split open and a giant lizard thing popped out and ate Katie Couric's face, he would only win by a point. Polls, schmolls.

Okay, a point and a half.

12 The only polls poles should we pay attention to are the ones that girls named "Cinnamon" and "Angel" gyrate about.

13 Gallup's results are for registered voters.  Frankly, for the GOP to be within three on that basis is not too bad.

14 Ace, if you are going to try and be as pessimistic as Allah, who really need to go whole hog and commit yourself.





Of course, I don't know how I would get out of bed in the morning if I was as pessimistic as Allah.

15

Oh, I forgot to mention- the national polls are interesting, but irrelevant except for trends (which is why I like the RCP average graph:  graphs are nice).  You have to look state-by-state to really get a feel.  But that involves more work.

Though arbitrarily assigning states to either side to play with the numbers is kind of fun.   (See what numbers you get when you make everything west of the Mississippi red and the rest blue!  Hahahha I'm so bored.)

16

  Newsweek releases their polls around 1 or 2PM on Saturdays, and they get a lot of MSM love, given that their work is usually the last one out before the Sunday shows.

I have a hunch they will be doing a lot of Friday night and Saturday AM polling, which will (suspiciously) be favorable to The Messiah.

17

MeTooThen

 

the state polls are lagging indicators.  the follow the national avg.  If Obama has peaked then it follows that the state polls will reflect that in the next week.  It is not so much that voters in states make up there mind later it is the polls are taken everyday. 

 

also taking the avg of polls from weeks ago is not a good way to get trends.  the only time an avg is helpful is if there are two or more polls taken the same day. 

18 If anyone reads Wizbang (Rush cited it today) they have done a great job analyzing the weighting of these polls.  Even by historical standards of the past 10 years, party ID cannot be greater the 3 points difference.  Considering Ras is using about 5 points and Gallup seems to be using 7-9, McCain is probably up by about 3-5 points if you adjust the weighting to a realistic number.  These polls are used for new services to drive news, they do not reflect what is actually happening.

19 They're not changing back & forth just the media cooking polls again, NOTHING NEW THERE

20 How do they measure this party affiliation that they use to "standardize" all their polls?

Is it based on new voter registrations?  Like the ones submitted in the thousands with names like "Lima Bean" by ACORN?

Qwinn

21

So do these people go down to the clerk of court or wherever and actually change their party affiliation?  Or do they just say, "I'm a Democrat this week, but I'm tilting Independent." 

Down here is sunny Florida, there are many people who are registered to vote here where their winter home is as well as their main residence location (usually up in the liberal North).  I suppose they can be both Republicans and Democrats.  It's a seasonal thing. 

22 Hey, Qwinn, where's the love?  My kids Pinto, Kidney, and Pork N' want to know if you're mad at them, too.

23 Yes, I know, the polls go up, they go down, and yet, even if McCain wins PA/FL, he loses the election if VA/IN/OH go to Obama, that leaves them with 263 (as per the map looks right now) with WI/MN/CO/NH/NV in play.

VA/IN/OH go to Obama ?????????????????????????????????????????

They are in McCain/Palin's Back pocket, Obama is flooding IN with ads, McCain/Palin hasn't run any ads & they're ahead in every poll

VA Obama is outspending McCain/Palin 5 to 1 & the best he can do is be within a Point or 2

OH is not going for Obama He lost in the Primary & will lose in the General. NEXT !!!!!

24

 BTM at September 23, 2008 05:13 PM

And then you have the Bradley effect.  should be worth at least 2-5% in PA, OH, MI and VA.   the more Obama talks about racism the more the Bradley effect will come into play.  If whites think they will be called racists to their faces they will tell pollsters that they are voting for Obama.  I think the Obama campiagn is making a big mistake talking about race.  It will drive those that are racists underground and those that are borderline racists will not talk to the pollsters so a correct reading will not be able to occur. 

25

First of all, RCP is invaluable.

Second of all, disregard the polls that use 'registered voters' and only look at those of 'likely voters.' The 'registered voter' polls are more often than not outliers that can't be trusted.

Third, look at roughly what the averages would be with only 'likely voter' polls used.

It ain't all sunshine and rainbows for McCain, but it sure is close enough where he is in a position to win it with good showings in the debates. (Or bad showings by Obama, which is quite likely.)

26 If Obama was actually winning, he'd be at least eight points ahead in most of these polls by now.

Still, it is too damn close!

I smell a rat.  In the polling.

I want to see the internal polls - the ones none of us know about.

27 "This no talent assclown is that close to a war hero?

Posted by: Wilhelm Klink at September 23, 2008 04:55 PM"

That's exactly what I'm thinking!  A POW with strategic military training, losing to a Communist street agitator?!?  Something's wrong here!

28 "It ain't all sunshine and rainbows for McCain, but it sure is close enough where he is in a position to win it with good showings in the debates." . Or, if the "Straight Talk Express" would start actually talking straight. Case in point: when you're grilled on Fiorina and her golden parachute, how about clearly saying, "Hewlett-Packard WASN'T bailed out by the Federal Govt. You're comparing apples and oranges. Next question."

29 David Horowitz and Frontpagemag is predicting 331-203 electoral votes for McCain/Palin.

Don't really know how he figures it, but I need a little cockeyed optimism with all the "ferkokter" polls.

Anyone concur?

30 Virginia might go to Obama.
Ohio will not.

The history of the union movement sheds some light on this sad fact. Unions were often used to exclude blacks from profitable industries. And union members have some seriously negative views on race issues. It's just a fact. And lots of those union members are otherwise Democrat voters.

31

14:

Nobody can out pessimist or out defeatism Allah.

32

JJ,

That doesn't make a lick of sense.

33

Just wait until McCain mops the floor with O'messiah in the debates, and Caribou Barbie has Biden crying in her debate with him.  The polls are destined to change substantially, in McCain/MILF's direction.

 

34

Party affiliation does not flip from R to D or D to R.

 

It flips from Unaffiliated-but-leans-R to R, and back again, and the same for Democrats.

In a good week for R's, the unaffiliated-but-lean-R flip out of the independent column and to the R's, and the unaffiliated-but-lean-D voters flip from D's to independents.

Etc.

Yes, it really does happen.

I know a guy who is of the unaffiliated-but-leans-R sort.  He hates Republicans.  But he hates Democrats more.  For the first time in his life a couple of weeks ago (when the media was  in full-tilt Smear Sarah Palin mode) he announced he thought he might be a Republican.

It does happen.

 

 

 

35

After the debates Friday, "the one" will be toast.

He will look like the empty suit he is and his condensenting smirk will turn off millions.

More Obama without the teleprompter, please!

Popcorn, store it up for Friday!

36

David Horowitz and Frontpagemag is predicting 331-203 electoral votes for McCain/Palin.

Don't really know how he figures it, but I need a little cockeyed optimism with all the "ferkokter" polls.

Anyone concur?

I predict between 0 and 538 electoral votes for McCain/Palin.

37

No one with half a brain talks to pollsters. Anyone with a life, or a half-life hangs up on them.

These dimwits are the ones whose responses resulted in predicted wins for Dukakis and Kerry.

38

35:

 

sadly, as long as he doesn't shit his pants on stage, he'll be declared the winner by the Deciders.

39 McCain is sure to get the States Bush got in '04. There rest is frosting.

40 Wasn't there some Iowa futures market that was fairly accurate? WHere are they now?

41 pork bellys

42 Actually, I Flipped from D to R about 9 years ago. So it does happen. VDH is actually a registered Dem. Reagan was a Dem as well.
Its like that night in the village when you realized you were in a gay bar at 3am and ran out without paying. or did that only happen to me?

43 29 David Horowitz and Frontpagemag is predicting 331-203 electoral votes for McCain/Palin.

Don't really know how he figures it, but I need a little cockeyed optimism with all the "ferkokter" polls.

Anyone concur?

here's the column http://tinyurl.com/3bgfdr

44 As many are noting, the polls have no idea how many republicans and democrats there are out there.

they ask what you are, and then ask which cnadidate you support, and you go into a bin of people who are in your category to be weighted.

No one knows how many dems are going to show up.  Puma, black candidate, racist dems.  It's a huge question mark, which is why the dem # shoots up and down like a yo-yo in likely voter polls.  That they can't even get the number correct for registered voters is also pretty hilarious.

45 The hopelessly naive child die-hard democrat that works across the hall from me, was wearing my ass out today about how none of these polls can possibly be accurate because the majority of 18-35 year olds no longer have land lines. I just nodded and went back to looking incredibly disinterested. I no longer engage him cause he's not gonna change my mind and I'm not gonna change his. We work in the same building but live in different universes. Oh yeah........he's a fucking Scandi-Yankee transplant.

46 Does this country really look at these two candidates and, collectively, decide "Eh. It's a coin flip."?

I'm not sure what that really says. Perhaps it's an indictment of our political system that we can look at the "top" two choices and effectively decide it just doesn't matter. They are of the same messed up government we've grown to hate. The problem is that one side is presumably pro-government and the other is presumably anti-government. Terribly simplistic, of course, but approximating a 50-50 split? I don't buy it. Of course, I could be in denial.

Furthermore, I'm not buying the polls either. Besides being generally weighted to boost the Left, what I think drives every institution is money and the capacity to earn more of it - the polling outlets included. A tight race draws interest. If it was a landslide, people's emotions couldn't be so readily stirred; and news thrives on emotionalism. I suspect these high profile races are also tweaked all sorts of ways to nudge them closer to parity thus ensuring yet another poll (more money) and more interest (more eyeballs which are attached to consumers).

On balance media-purchased polls lean Left due to the nature of the institution footing the bill, but more money flows more freely when attention is high. How exciting and profitable it must be to be a media organization that covers a long, drawn out, heavyweight bout where the battle is a see-saw from round-to-round. So what if you manipulate the reportage to elevate or detract from certain actors from time to time. You're just keeping it exciting... and, more importantly, profitable.

47

Eh, again Team McCain's Palin pick allowed them to tie Obama in the polls.  Long way to go.

Take a look here for all ploted tracking poll data split out by blue red neutral states.  Nice detail.

It is a sub-blog of Pollster.com

48 I like this poll:
58 percent for BO among Hillary supporters three months ago …
58 percent for BO among Hillary supporters now!

Gotta love those Clinton Supporters aka PUMA!

49

Some good news. A new poll has McCain up by three in Michigan.

Michigan!

50 I think the only polls that are important now are the internal polls that each candidate commissions.  You can usually tell how they are running by the actions of the candidates.  Obama's internals must be telling him bad stories right now, cuz he appears to be having nightmares during the day. 

I think it is a landslide for McCain....racist Dems, especially Southern Dems, will either stay home or pull the lever for McCain.

Game.

Set.

Match.

51 Pollsters to McCain Supporters: We're ready to demoralize you!

52 Posted by: PaREP> at September 23, 2008 06:08 PM (dWdDN)

Wow, whatever Horowitz's smoking there, I want me some too.

53

#50

I think it is a landslide for McCain....racist Dems, especially Southern Dems, will either stay home or pull the lever for McCain.

=

Crock-of-shit. 

Has it occurred to you that maybe, just maybe those "racist Southern Dems" will vote against Obama not because they are racist, but because he is a racist.

Maybe, just like us rightwing whackos, they are tired of being called a racist everytime they express reservations over voting for Teleprompter Jesus.

And I get hammered for using codewords to parody real racists.  FFS.

54 Crock-of-shit.

I don't care what you think.  Citing poll out yesterday from AP where  a third of Dems stated they would not vote for a black person.  O'reilly had a segment on it.  My black girlfriend and I have had this discussion since Obaby got in the race.  Whether you want to face the fact that there is latent racism that will affect this election or not is your choice.  I'm saying that I see it every day and it does not surprise me that a large portion of Democrats that would otherwise vote for the candidate of their party will not vote for Obaby, based strictly on race.

55 Don't watch the polls, because any system where you can post a tie and a +20 percent margin like they are in North Carolina is untrustworthy to put it mildly. And sites that average those numbers together are sillier yet. Watch where the candidates are going instead. Obama is pulling resources out of red states he thought to contend in and is defending his own turf in PA/WI. McCain is attacking those same states.

Even voter fraud, the great Democratic equalizer, doesn't help if you aren't close to start with.

56

Wizbang did a good job with the gallup polls weighting, which is the major problem in all polls.   State polls of course are theoretically the more reliable indicator, but I spent some time last night looking through the internals on a lot of them and they're simply junk in many cases. 

For example, Obama is up 10 points in Colorado according to one, but the only way I could make that work was to weight their ethnic break down at near the 2000 state population breakdown (ie, hispanics at 16% of the vote) and not at actual turnout (hispanics were 7% in 2000 and 8% in 2004 and for good reason).  Another one, I think Virginia but I looked at too many to remember, had McCain up 50 amongst blacks.  The one with New Mexico which had Obama up 11 was 52% dem (41% in 2004).  The Campaign Spot over at National review has a similar look at a Pennsylvania poll with Obama up, again massive ahistorical weighting for the dems in it. 

So state polls should be a more reliable look at the race but given how few of them there are per state, how much they're spaced so apart, and how bad or opaque most are (I generally ignore any non-Rasmussen/Gallup poll without weightings or breakdowns), they aren't the best indicator at the moment.

57

The only true indicators are the betting odds where people are prepared to risk hard earned dollars-

At the moment all the online bet shops show an O win.

58 At the moment all the online bet shops show an O win.

And they all had the Patriots over the Giants in the Super Bowl.

59 This race is either going to be a down-to-the-wire squeaker or a healthy drubbing by one party over the other. My gut says that McCain won't get drubbed, but he might lose in a squeaker. If enough Americans pay attention between now and 11/4, McCain will thoroughly tromp that Teleprompter Jesus Guy and restore my faith in them.

On other words, I think it highly unlikely McCain can flip Michigan or Pennsylvania to red and win a 'squeaker', that would be part of a blow-out (which I'd dearly like to see).

Similarly, if McCain loses either Virginia or Ohio, he's toast because there are no electoral votes to replace them with. Both are without doubt must-win states for him (like Michigan and Pennsylvania are for Obamuh).

If you start with a pretty traditional red-blue breakdown of the Bush-Kerry race in '04, there are only a few states that could realistically be different in a close race (as opposed to a blow-out):

Iowa - that will go from red to blue. The trend in the polls has clearly been that way for some time. Think ethanol and Iowa primaries and you'll see know why they don't want McCain. Now they could surprise me and keep it red, but that would be part of an easy McCain win.

Take out NM and CO for now and that puts the electoral count at 265 red and 259 blue. Obama has to win both to win this close election, McCain needs one. NM has been pretty consistently for Obama and may stay that way. Colorado has been more ambiguous.

In a squeaker, this thing really could come down to a tight race in Colorado of all places.

Now what SHOULD happen is that Americans shake off that hopey-changey spell many of them have fallen under, pull their heads out of their asses and do the right thing. I can realistically get the electoral count for McCain as high as 311 in that scenario.

In summary, if you can do something to support Colorado going red - do it!

60 but there was no South Park Republican category.

61 I got poled too!

62 Sadly, I still figure McCain is gonna get shithammered.  Yeah, I'm fairly pessimistic by nature, but even still, I just don't think McCain can overtake Obama.  If it were a straight-up race with a neutral media, maybe - even probably.  With the media and every leftist group out there going all in in a total ends-justify-the-means effort?  Long, long odds.

63 "With the media and every leftist group out there going all in in a total ends-justify-the-means effort?  Long, long odds."

I also think they're going to win by total crook.  Their hate is too strong, and their willingness to do evil, too.  How can anyone win against such?

64 All I can tell you right now about Michigan is last night several of my very Lefty colleagues had their panties all in a knot about Obama's chances.  They see all the polls and believe he needs to be up by 10 or so in the polls to really be winning.  One guy who has lived here forever pointed out that over the past few elections Dems have consistently performed at least 2-3 points under even what the best polls predict, and that was with white candidates.  He's fretting that Obama will get blown out and return the Michigan legislature to total Republican control.

Granholm is no longer very popular <30% approval, Kilpatrick's got every Dem disgruntled and white suburbanites grumpy.  He thinks only Levin is a sure thing.

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