1 CBS?

Courage.

2 Check the polls internals, Ace.  And take a break from Allah.  Seriously what is wrong with you two?

3 Dude, lay off the polls. Seriously, you can't seem to show any slightest level of perspective. Just ignore polls for a whole week, as a start.

4 The same poll says the generic congressional ballot numbers have widened to 51(D), 31(R).  Does that sound reasonable to you?  When Rasmussen still has McCain up by 1, and the generic ballot at 44(D), 38(R)?  Something doesn't smell right here.

5 Jesus Christ Ace. It's a CBS poll. All of the polls are BS anyway, but a CBS poll? You and Allah.....

Has your girlfriend ever seen you like this?

6 don't off yourself just yet....we have more pitchforks then people as of right now.

7

Time to play the Palin gambit, put her out, loud and proud.  This hiding her crap is not working, she is getting pummelled.  Let her deliver.

8 Hell even Allah admits that the damned thing under counts Independents and over counts Democrats before he has his nervous break-down.  Look at the poll's internals.  And stop taking Allah seriously on this sort of stuff.  Lord knows the rest of the world did a long time ago.

9

Dude, are you gonna go all bipolar on us? You can't run around alternating between furious celebtratory masturbating interspersed with bouts of depressed crying and introspection because.. well, that's too much like your real life and this isn't a personal blog.

Don't fall into the chick blogger trap, man. Keep it professional.

10 From the land of faded Kerry/Edwards stickers...

I work in the entertainment business here in L.A, and live in one of the upper scale "burbs" housing it's execs etc...needless to say, this is the belly of the limo liberal beast. In driving around, I'm struck by the lack of Obama signs. Actually I see more McCain signs (though those too are few)...4 years ago, you could walk for blocks without your feet touching the ground...hopping from one Kerry sign to the next. I have a strong suspicion election day is going to surprise many people. Sure, California will remain blue, but I predict it will be much closer than anticipated.
These polls don't feel right to me. Not from my vantage point anyway.

11 "And take a break from Allah.  Seriously what is wrong with you two?"

For starters, they share a vagina. And it has sand in it.

CBS poll. Yeah. Everyone to the bunkers.

12 Astroturfing - Check
Move the polls to McCain after convention - Check
Make Obama the comeback kid - Check
Try to surpress conservative vote - Check
Allah in hysterics - Double Check

For all the talk about Obama and Biden's lack of "manliness" its time for the people here to man up and get a set of balls and help finish the left off.

13

Jeez Nancy, get a grip.  Polls don't mean shit at this juncture.  I expect Mac to win this pretty large actually.  If the press is good for 5%-10% and the big O is only up by a few close to election, not even close.  Of course if he wins I'll have to figure out how to pull my head out of my ass, but at this point, I predict Mac by at least 4%.

 

14 I swear Kos doesn't have to spend a penny spreading his memes about.  He just whispers them to a member of the MSM who whispers them to Allah who then goes nuts.  Free politcal whispering campaign with the offical seal of journalism all over it so it loks like fact.

15 CBS polls are the worst, utter garbage.

It's McCain by 1, not accounting for Bradley.  Bank it, Ace.

16 "Dude, are you gonna go all bipolar on us? You can't run around alternating between furious celebtratory masturbating interspersed with bouts of depressed crying and introspection because.. well, that's too much like..."

A certain milky loader of power glutes we all know.

There.  If that doesn't get Ace to man up, nothing will.

Qwinn

17 Does any one on the right know how this politics thing works?  Have any of you ever actually been involved in an election?

18

Weren't Kerry and Gore both up ~10 at this point in 2000 & 2004?

Wait for the debates, my friend.

19 Have any of you ever actually been involved in an election?

No, but I'm intrigued by your post and wish to subscribe to your newsletter!

20

Between this shit and the college football polls, I have decided that all polls suck.

I refuse to believe that Obama is that much ahead of McCain or that Oklahoma is the #2 team in the country. Damnable lies.

21 That's it!  Time to hit the Val-U-Rite.  It's nice to have an excuse this time.

22 I like the thought of a new map:

1. United Republics of America (red states)
2. United Soviets of America (blue states)
3. Texas
4. Alaska

23 Weren't Kerry and Gore both up ~10 at this point in 2000 & 2004?

Nope they were not.

Bush was up 14 right now, according to the linked poll above.

Gore/Bush 2000

Gore up 3 at this point.

All said, this is a CBS poll, Rasmussen has McCain up 1. States are favorable to McCain at the moment. State polls are more important than an overall number.

Obama's camp is not acting like it has any significant advantage and seems to act like things are collapsing around them. Democrats seem to be thinking the same thing. I'd add that into your mix of emotions.

24 The college football polls do suck.  So does this poll.  Compare the numbers of independents and democrats as compared to the last poll CBS did.  They over counted Democrats and under counted independents...  Look, no one has a clue what is going t happen Nov. 5th at this point.  The polls will go up and down keep working.

25

Dude, are you gonna go all bipolar on us? You can't run around alternating between furious celebtratory masturbating interspersed with bouts of depressed crying and introspection because.. well, that's too much like your real life and this isn't a personal blog.

Yep, that was exactly how Andrew Sullivan was circa 2003, and we all know how that story ended.

26 Ace, have a swig of liquid courage and stay steady.

Watch the Palin interview on Hannity and think impure thoughts.

This might cheer you up.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/09/petrobanks-capri-thai-processes-for.html

27 And stop opening Allah's emails.

28 I disagree with you, Ace, that CBS is oversampling. They are using, essentially, the same numbers as Rasmussen.

Rasmussen uses essentially the same party affiliation breakdown as CBS. Why the different results? Who knows. In a few days, if Rasmussen changes, I'd worry.

For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated.

John McCain attracting 48% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 47%

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a 48.6 % chance of victory while expectations for Obama are at 50.4 %. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.

29 And the only trends you're seeing right now is the media's trend to weight their polls in favor of Obama so his support won't fall apart.

30 Ha, Ace sucked all the fresh air outta the room.

I suggest hemp rope - its eco friendly, knots well and doesn't leave those unsightly nylon neck burns.

31 McCain/Palin on Fox right n ow, in the townhall meeting.

32 I never trusted the polls when McCain/Palin were up, so I'm not devastated now that they're down. I do think that McCain got a good solid bump from choosing Palin -- in fact it may be enough to pull a victory in November. However, Palin needs to freshen her message and do some serious campaigning -- she can't keep giving the same stump speech over and over again; I think the repetition is "killing the buzz" somewhat. The novelty has worn off. And without a friendly press to make sure her phiz is always on the magazines and talk shows, she needs to schedule some good photo-ops and give one or two good stem-winders for friendly audiences.

McCain...well, he is who he is. Frankly there's not much he can do that he's not already doing. He's got winning issues in domestic energy production and the economy. (I'd say "immigration" as well, but we know how Captain Amnesty feels about that....) Usually a bad economy favors the Democrats, but this year the wind might blow the other way for the simple reason that it was a Democrat Congress for the past two years who fiddled while Rome burned. McCain has the great benefit of having forseen the mortgage mess coming and getting on record about it. All Obama can do is shovel out the usual Democratic platitudes about feeling for the Common Man, all while jetting off to $20K per plate benefits attended by Hollywood hoi polloi.

I'm more sanguine now than I was even a few weeks ago. Ignore the polls for the next couple of weeks, because they're going to gyrate like a weather-vane in a high wind for a while before settling down.

33 Dude, Ace, you need to sack up, bro-zeph. The only poll that counts is the vote. And my awesome, pink, hard-rod pole of power.

So, there ya go. Hope that was helpful.

34 Come the fuck on, Ace--

You don't have a garage.

35 You're right, I'd kill myself in the Rumpus Room.

36 This is now McCain's to win or lose. Palin will hold the base, barring something big, which I don't think is going to happen.

Why no McCain ads on the stupidity of the Democrats new energy bill?

Why no ads that McCain saw this meltdown coming in 2005 and tried to stop it? And while you're at it, point out that Democrats blocked it. And maybe point out how much money Obama and Dodd got from these institutions. Foxes? Hen houses? Hello?

Why no ads that Obama does not respect the law and tries to negotiate with Iraq against the United States?

Maybe point out that Islamic terrorism is rising again, and it would be good to have a smart warrior running things?

Energy. Energy. Energy.

McCain needs to start hitting hard.

37

Listen, most all national polls have either McCain or Barack within a few points of each other. CBS appears to be an outlier. All McCain needs is to be within a few points (though being ahead is of course better) come debate time, where it is then up to him to either win it or lose it.

Right now, we're in the middle rounds, where McCain and Obama will take turns trading small leads, getting ready for the big push the last two weeks.

38

Scott has as a point, but I wonder if, with the base now solidly behind him, McCain is now keeping his powder dry.

At least, I hope that's what's going on.

39

As a contrarian my political instincts are very average, but I don't believe the polls.  Not following the Palin bounce.  The pollster's are in their furious smoke and mirrors mode a month early.  Remember the Kerry finish?

They are trying to keep O's base away from neckties and kitchen chairs, I'm certain.  Who would get out the homeless and year's dead vote?

40

Colorado's going blue this time around.

Obama's AG will conduct permanent investigations into Republicans past and present.

Fairness Doctrine will become law. First attempts at internet restrictions.

Our enemies will test us, probe for weakness, test resolve. Not unreasonable to expect terrorist bombings inside the United States.

And remember, there's 2 or 3 Supreme Court justices hanging on to life, waiting for Obama to nominate their successors.

The damage that will be done by President Obama will be generations in the undoing.

41 Oh, we'll have change, big time. Just not the kind of change everyone thinks.

42

Hmm ... republicans in congress back-pedal on "drill here, drill now" in the same week McCain "straight-talks" in Spanish, and slips in the polls.

Must be his position on the Iraq war.

43

Remember what the polls said in 1980, 1984, 1994?

 

I get better results when my uncle reads tea leafs.

 

Considering its a fifty-fifty chance these people are absolute lossers.

44 Oh come on.... CBS?

First, the post-convention numbers are still in McCain's favor. Second, it's still over 40 days until the election. You don't bring out your big guns until the two minute warning; for now the RNC is saving its ammo.

Just wait until the debates; both Palin and McCain will emerge victorious and unsweaty and the polls will reflect that.

45 From #4:

51(D)?

44(D)?

OOooooOOooooo ......  I feel faint......

46 "we're in a Wall-Street-caused financial crisis."

I suggest you hold judgment on that one until all the facts are in.  The combination of "mark-to-market" accounting rules, allowance of naked shorting, removal of the uptick rule, anti-redline district legislation, and an extended period of really low interest rates are all part of this puzzle.

Another factor is that regulators of various financial institutions undoubtedly twisted arms to push financials into Fannie and Freddie paper on the ridiculous assumption that 'government backed' meant the paper was safer.

The government is usually stupid, no matter who is in charge.  The law of unintended consequences always applies.  Maybe now a few more people will remember that when conservatives oppose big government.  A government big enough to stick it's nose into everything better not be stupid or we are all just fucked.

47 Can I vote now, go to sleep now and wake up on Nov. 5th?

I think I just need to pull the plug in the internets because this is all gonna drive me up the wall.

This has been fun, but I'm gonna just come back when we have something solid to bitch about.

Jones in CO, I tend to agree with you, but the damage Bambi does could very well be irreparable.

He'll change the way I live all right.  I feel the survivalist in me coming out already.

48 You guys are gonna be fine. 

Remember, you were up when none of us knew who Sarah Palin was.  Now that we have gotten a good look at her, her numbers are falling.  This was surely to be expected.  Lots of people were going to like the idea of Sarah Palin, but not necessarily the candidate. 

The solution is simple.  All you need do is make everyone forget who she is and then reintroduce her at the end of October.  Problem solved.

49
"For although the Valar had rewarded the Dunedain with long life, they could not take from them the weariness of the world that comes at last; and they died, even the kings of the seed of Earendel, and the span of their lives was short in the eyes of the Eldar."

Yeah. Me too.

50 I simply find it hard to believe that anyone but us morons would see enough in 5 days to change their opinions of the candidates that drastically. And if they did, their opinion won't matter until the day of the election anyway, since apparently they swing easier than Hugh Heffner.

51

The constant complaining that any poll I don't like must be flawed is a mug's game.

Which is why I like to play the "every single poll is flawed" game.

I always win. It's like freecell. Makes me feel smart.

52 How much does a twist cost? If it's not too much I'll pitch in.

53

Heh.  looking at internals I noticed that iin response to "regardless of how you vote, what do you dislike the most about Biden?" was

9% "Gaffes."  next was "Washington Insider" at 7%

Highest % was "Nothing" of course at 13%

I would say I aprrove, no strongly approve, of Happy Hair Plugs if I got polled.

I like Joe.

 

54 What the fuck is a "mug" or a "mug's game?" Is this some sorta fancy pants east-coast lawyer talk?

55 Didn't CBS have McCain up TEN about a week ago?

I didn't believe that, and I don't believe this.

56

number 53 was for indpendents only part of sample.

57 its really scary that a loon like Obama can poll this high

58 The CBS poll is so weirdly volatile that it beggers belief.

McCain up ten points last week and down five now? A fifteen point swing in this electorate? Um, no. Not believable at all.

But I think that if we rely on the debates and the news cycle in the final weeks, we're in huge trouble.

Who is running the debates? Who chooses what the day's news stories are? McCain and Palin's sworn enemies in the MSM.

McCain's ONLY shot is to drive the news deliberately, fiercely, and with gusto, which means being in a permanent attack mode.

59

Ace...come on, you're whining like a KosKid...man up! 

60

Polls commissioned by folks like CBS should be treated the same as professional rasslin results.

61 My thoughts about Sarah Palin are pure (http://tinyurl.com/purely-sarah. ) They're purely going to get me killed if Todd ever gets wind of them.

62 Back away from the noose, Ace...the debates start next week dude...you're putting your faith in a fucking CBS poll?  Get a grip, man...

Here's a bottle of Val-u-rite

Pic of Sarah

Clean Happy Sock

nuf said...

63 Frankly, I think they're gamed to discourage Republicans from voting and prevent the Left from committing suicide. Don't lose hope.

64

 Hold your ground, hold your ground! Sons of  Reagan, of Val-U-Rite, my brothers! I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day. An hour of woes and shattered shields, when the age of men comes crashing down! But it is not this day! This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!

 

It's a meaningless poll Ace. Wait until the last two weeks of October before you do something rash. (I didn't know cardboard boxes came with garages)

65 I'm sorry, I just can't get interested in any "news" item which originates with CBS, The New York Times, or The New Republic, none of which have a shred of credibility left.

jc #46 makes a salient point:   the financial crisis is hardly due primarily to Wall Street, but rather to Washington, DC.

66 Chill, Ace, not all of them. Rasmussen has them tied 48-48. And IIRC, at this time four years ago, Kerry was ahead of Bush.

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