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| OODA and what The Hell Is This?It's what the McCain camp has been throwing at Obama, big time. For those of you who are wondering, it's an aerial dogfighting discipline, outlined by USAF Col. John Boyd, splained here by new NRO contributor Bill Whittle, who I want to meet and purchase a brew for. It goes like this: Observe. Orient. Decide. Act. or thusly: Observe. Dorkwit.Orient. Flank. Decide. Upset. Act. Palin. This is working so well that Obama has made the supreme mistake of taking her on instead of McCain (as ace has noted today). Anyhow, for those of you who are unfamiliar with the OODA thingy, there you go. It's about shootin down commies. I likes that. Comments1
We're morons here.
The point is deducing the best response to an action you haven't even made yet. Then preparing your counterpunches to keep pushing in predictable directions. Like in chess, where your opponent is stuck always "having to" make certain moves. Posted by: Al at September 06, 2008 10:56 PM (Lk931) Posted by: DrewM. at September 06, 2008 10:58 PM (hlYel) 3
There is some Sun Tzu going on here too. Obama is fighting on a battlefield that McCain has prepared for him. Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 06, 2008 11:02 PM (wgLRl) 4
NRO? So that's where Bill Whittle went. I use to read Eject, Eject, Eject...but he stopped posting. Good for him. He's gooooood!
Posted by: Tami at September 06, 2008 11:04 PM (P3ErD) 5
You can't gain ground playing defense. Obama is completely defensive now.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at September 06, 2008 11:15 PM (6L459) Posted by: Kestrel at September 06, 2008 11:17 PM (gBnKJ) 7
Well, you can't win playing defense... unless your opponent has an Epic Fail. We're quite capable of those, so....
Posted by: Al at September 06, 2008 11:18 PM (Lk931) 8
Are you sure, Dave in Texas, that the Air Force Colonel's name isn't actually "Bird" but he's from New York?
Posted by: andycanuck at September 06, 2008 11:18 PM (qKkaY) 9
Barry & Plugs have all the corporate agility of IBM
Posted by: MCPO Airdale at September 06, 2008 11:25 PM (wba6w) 10
OODA is supposed to be used in a "Loop"
In other words, after the "Act" part, you start over. The faster you can OODA, the more you can drive the fight. Right now, Johnny Mac (Momma's boy) is driving the Obamasaiah around like on old beat up F150 with a gun rack... Posted by: Nose at September 06, 2008 11:25 PM (vWRjJ) 11
O's getting played like a Steinway.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at September 06, 2008 11:27 PM (6L459) 12
Obama/Biden = sleepy commie village.
McCain/Palin = the distant sound of chopper blades and Wagner. Posted by: Bubba Thudd at September 06, 2008 11:27 PM (Q9kZv) 13
Funny how shit happening in Russia determines the outcome of U.S. elections. In 1980, The USSR invaded Afghanistan and all Jimmy Carter could think to do was boycott the Olympics. America got fed up wth wimpiness and elected Ronald Reagan. In 2004, the Beslan school massacre turned millions of American mothers into security moms who voted to reelect Bush. In 2008, Russia's invasion of Georgia panicked Barack Obama into selecting Joe Biden as his running mate, therefore booting the "change" argument and leaving it for McCain to steal by picking Sarah Palin. Posted by: rockmom at September 06, 2008 11:29 PM (iZqUY) 14
I have to admit my moron-blame just can't get a handle on this. Too much Valu-Rite, perhaps. I'm going to needs lots and lots of examples before I can really grasp how this OODA loop thing works.
That said, I'm not sure I want to understand it too well, because if too many people discuss the strategy openly, Obama might be able to counter it. I can wait until after November; hopefully, there will be some amazing books in the future analyzing it all. Posted by: Kensington at September 06, 2008 11:31 PM (xFNQx) Posted by: Jones at September 06, 2008 11:31 PM (VkNlv) 16
Thanks to Rush! And Mitt! Team McCain got a great free preview of the Obama playbook before committing its troops to battle.
Posted by: Andy at September 06, 2008 11:31 PM (iIvIk) 17
If you're as allergic to Whittle as I am, you should look at the links here.
The right blogosphere's been talking about Boyd for a long, long time. As for OODA's application to the current campaign, see here. Posted by: someone at September 06, 2008 11:33 PM (2z2WN) 18
andycanuck, late Col John Boyd, was a USAF fighter pilot who practically wrote the book on dogfighting tactics, went on to establish the energy-maneuverability principle which led to the creation of nimble dogfighters like the F-16. He later proposed the OODA loop theory, which Dick Cheney and his generals used effectively to win the Desert Storm war. As expected, he was shunned by the USAF top brass, and died practically penniless. We sometimes don't value our heroes. It is a shame.
Posted by: Tushar at September 06, 2008 11:34 PM (PTWes) 19
The more important feature of the OODA loop for our purposes is what happens when you're acting INSIDE the loop of your enemy. Just as your enemy gets oriented, decides and commits to action, you have already altered one of his driving assumptions, thereby making his action a "swing and a miss."
This is why, with Obama on the defense, the McCain campaign has to trickle out major new "meat" in the speeches, so as to keep the disorientation afoot. I've suggested in previous comments having "policy sessions" with two or three issues each once a week through the election. Keep Obama responding, and add major policy goals which will have appeal with the center and center-right, while being difficult for the left to countermand. A prime example that would mindfuck Obama pretty good would be to declare a movement, including coordination among the 50 states for "option 2" under Article V of the constitution to implement line item veto for budget items, or, even easier, to declare that the executive branch will go to court to declare the practice of earmarking OUTSIDE a bill text as unconstitutional attempts by congress critters to direct the executive's spending other than as per the blanket authority in the actual budget enactments. The OODA issue is important inasmuch as your process for completing the cycle is short and nimble, and shorter and more nimble than your opponents. It is here that McCain's "instincts" are important, as he can drive at a decision and go. The risk is that when you're turning the wheel this fast, you can misstep too. Posted by: Gonzo at September 06, 2008 11:35 PM (pM4Bb) 20
The point that wasn't mentioned in the main point is that OODA is part of a loop. Both sides are doing it. The one who can do it over and over again FASTER is the one who wins.
It's like this. You're in a dogfight. You look around make a decision and act. That takes you 1.2 seconds. The opponent is doing the same things BUT it takes him 1.3 seconds. You will win that dogfight. You're inside his loop, you're inside his decision cycle. If you're interested in this OODA/Decision Cycle business you might want to read a book about Boyd. I'd recommend "Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War" by Robert Coram. Posted by: Arthur at September 06, 2008 11:36 PM (5dNhb) 21
SNL is rebroading the Tina Fey, appearence, and it opens with the hilary and obama "debate." FUNNY. Posted by: wickedpinto at September 06, 2008 11:36 PM (ul7te) Posted by: marchand chronicles at September 06, 2008 11:40 PM (Bj/HA) 23
Before committing to read the whole Boyd book, try this article that sums the stuff up pretty well.
Posted by: someone at September 06, 2008 11:41 PM (2z2WN) 24
I hope McCain turns out to be as unbeatable as John Boyd (and not quite as crazy).
Anyway, Obama's 'strategy' is openly available to anyone who has watched David Axelrod in action and who paid attention to the Dem primaries. I don't think even Axelrod expected Obama to win this time. This run was to be a shakedown for 2012 or 2016 (and I think if Obama had finished 2-3 in Iowa and NH he would have happily accepted the VP slot from Hillary). They were going to 'introduce' Obama to the average Dem voter and file off all the rough places. Instead, they caught lightning in a bottle and now they're stuck with a typical Axelrod Chicago-style campaign (because that's all he has right now) and it's aimed at an entirely Democrat-controlled electorate (i.e. Chicago itself or Massachussetts as in Deval Patrick). It looks like it doesn't work when Dems don't control everything. Their OODA loop isn't even a useful loop. Their OODA is designed for a shooting gallery while McCain's is designed for an actual dogfight. Look for Axelrod/Obama to get shot down in flames. (Having Joe Biden as a wingman is about as useful as having a screendoor in your submarine.) Posted by: JorgXMcKie at September 06, 2008 11:42 PM (1Sf5X) 25
marchand, let me just quote my comment from last night...
"But, usually blog candy." Candy is right. I read Whittle from his very first posts ever, and... he's always sweet and inspiring, but you realize afterwards that there's no nutritional value. Try actually pinning down his arguments, and you'll see he lays the cute details on thick but elides lots of what really needs establishing, particularly since each post has a new grand theory of theoriness. Wretchard is brilliant. Whittle is showy. Posted by: someone at September 06, 2008 11:43 PM (2z2WN) 26
Actually, as it relates to strategy, the Army has switched to PMESII-PT but both are just vague concepts.
What hits me the hardest, is that I really want to take my daughter to see and hear Sarah speak. Can't imagine a better role model. Posted by: Hongqi at September 06, 2008 11:47 PM (+WuMm) 27
Hopefully, this means that they will be dropping the Ayers/Rezko bombs on them.
Posted by: andrew at September 06, 2008 11:52 PM (0UdIj) 28
I'm with you JorgXMcKie.
Until November of last year, he was aiming for a trial run, perhaps the VP slot. But a couple of his mild attacks got him a boost in the polls - close enough that someone decided "Why not try?" So that one or two month period of real effort derailed Hillary. Who had basically been jogging along, not sprinting. Posted by: Al at September 06, 2008 11:54 PM (Lk931) 29
I had personal dealings with John Boyd in my line of work. This was after Desert Storm. He didn't seem or act crazy or eccentric, as some have said or implied. He was a nice guy and a gentleman, and very articulate. Posted by: Steve (aka Ed Snate) at September 06, 2008 11:59 PM (6dBjl) 30
Steve, you actually met John Boyd? We must meet at the next Acepalooza so I can shake your hand.
Posted by: Tushar at September 07, 2008 12:12 AM (PTWes) 31
In 2008, Russia's invasion of Georgia panicked Barack Obama into
selecting Joe Biden as his running mate, therefore booting the "change"
argument and leaving it for McCain to steal by picking Sarah Palin.
You're exactly right. Except to add the second half where Obama was very afraid of Hillary as a VP with her own power base, as a VP that might be perceived as running the white house (re: Hillary/Bill; cheney/bush), and as a potential to run again, even stronger, against his hoped for second term in 2012. Posted by: kat-missouri at September 07, 2008 12:13 AM (io+Si) 32
Sarah Palin traveled back in time and taught Boyd about the OODA loop so she would be nominated VP.
Posted by: kat-missouri at September 07, 2008 12:17 AM (io+Si) 33
>>Sarah Palin traveled back in time and taught Boyd about the OODA loop so she would be nominated VP.
Time machine needed the theory of relativity to work. So she first had to teach Einstein that. A woman's work is never complete. Posted by: Tushar at September 07, 2008 12:25 AM (PTWes) 34
I second the allergy to bill whittle's writing. It's well done but kinda tries too hard - lacks sincerity or something. Posted by: anon at September 07, 2008 12:42 AM (77Ytn) 35
I'd recommend "Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War" by Robert Coram.
I'm reading this right now, as it happens. Good book! And yeah, McCain and Palin are way inside O!'s loop. While Barry is still trying to recover from "a girl is beating me up", they're setting up an Ayers bomb. Or a Wright bomb. Or (most likely) a new and previously unheard-of bomb. McCain is running a professional, organized national campaign. Obama has a collection of small-time Chicago ward hacks and an army of screeching hippies for whom "loose cannon" doesn't even begin to express things. McCain can execute a swivel, a shift, a 180 degree turn, or anything else he chooses to do, four or five times over while O! is still trying to herd his motley cat herd army away from the cliff that they were about to go over in response to what McCain did five moves ago.
Posted by: Dead Career Sketch at September 07, 2008 12:45 AM (5Psnq) 36
since 8/30/08 my group blog has posted three times on the ooda loop and mccain versus obama.
before the whittle nro piece. here and here and here. if yawl read TAB (a group blog) every day then you'd be ahead of the blogosphere's ooda loop. Posted by: reliapundit at September 07, 2008 12:54 AM (Hhqr7) 37
McCain did the same thing in the primaries. When Romney started to get traction as the "economy" candidate, McCain attacked him for going squishy on the surge. Romney got all huffy and completely went off his economy message. Then McCain dropped the hammer on Giuliani in Florida with the Charlie Crist endorsement. Got them both out of the race in one week. You might have thought that Axelrod would have noticed that little piece of OODA and realized what he was up against. Posted by: rockmom at September 07, 2008 01:05 AM (iZqUY) 38
Tushar -- actually, it's your hand I'd like to shake! One of these days I'm going to have to attend an Acepalooza/ Posted by: Steve (aka Ed Snate) at September 07, 2008 01:11 AM (6dBjl) 39
Shhhh,
Do not tell anybody, but, Obama can get inside the McCain/Palin OODA loop by attacking Palin on the 2nd gun thing. Posted by: shit-house lawyer at September 07, 2008 01:47 AM (zgH0c) 40
Boyd vs Boyington, who would win in a dogfight?
Posted by: Bart at September 07, 2008 02:02 AM (Ds1aA) 41
Since Boyd was undefeated against all challengers at the Air Force fighter school (where he was a trainer) I'd say Boyd.
His nickname was 40 second Boyd. He had a standing bet. You and him would fly in F-100s. The fight would start with you on Boyd's tail. If Boyd wasn't on YOUR tail in 40 seconds or less, you won. And, he was undefeated in that bet. Posted by: Arthur at September 07, 2008 02:35 AM (5dNhb) Posted by: Merovign at September 07, 2008 02:59 AM (UXoQt) 43
Some tactical openings and responses are as predictable as a tic-tac-toe game. Often both sides know what the other will do and it's just a question of execution - a halfback leaping over the goal line on first and goal from the one - American infantry turning into and charging an ambush - Republican politicians finding and attacking the weakest point of what an opponent had thought his strength. We can predict these and any thinking tactician should have been prepared for them. Obama hasn't been awful at this, but has failed to play any number of moves ahead. McCain keeps taking it to another level that Obama can't even see. The old man is playing Go, Obama's playing checkers and he can't even see how he is being out-maneuvered. McCain knows Obama to be haughty (is that racist?) and tells him to go to Iraq. Obama says, "I'll show you, I'll have a world tour" and thereby beclowns himself. Obama says he doesn't need Hillary, Obama doesn't even think he needs a running mate (haughty) - there isn't a single sign, bumpersticker, button or mug on Obama's site with Biden's name on it - not one. So McCain finds the most newsworthy second out there. McCain herds or taunts his opponent into a position and then counterpunches against Obama's now-predictable reaction to the position he's been put into. It is a beautiful thing. The Senate reconvenes soon. I want to see how McCain plays that. Posted by: Ronsonic at September 07, 2008 03:01 AM (ywSvi) Posted by: kat-missouri at September 07, 2008 03:41 AM (io+Si) 45
That McCain is tactical genius is what's surprised me the most. He's kicking the utter crap out of Obama.
McCain: Squad of Roman Legionnaires Obama : The Messiah. Posted by: DelD at September 07, 2008 04:20 AM (FDAHM) Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 07, 2008 04:44 AM (wgLRl) 47
McCain: Genghis Khan
Obama: 22% of the freakin' planet
Obama: Napoleon/Hitler
McCain: Russian winter
Posted by: Dead Career Sketch at September 07, 2008 05:58 AM (5Psnq) 48
Hey, Barry has this Sarah Palin business well in hand. His Veep has been all over this situation, taking the battle right to the enemy's front lawn. I mean, check out the Washington Post's campaign calendar for Biden:
Campaign Events This Week No events scheduled. That has to have Palin quaking in her gogo boots. Wasn’t it smart of Obama to hire a crack political operative such as Patti Solis-Doyle as Biden’s chief of staff? She’s really managed to keep Joey visible during the Palin crisis. Plus, as a bonus, Patti has a long working relationship with Hillary! so she’ll surely be able to get her old pal to help Joe swat down the Sarahnator. Yeah, Obama’s selection of Solis-Doyle is a home run on two fronts. EXECUTIVE EXPERIENCE! And MEASURED JUDGMENT! How’s that working out for you, Barry? Posted by: Norman Conquest at September 07, 2008 09:22 AM (E9Jrr) 49
Sarah's Barak OODA Since it doesn't appear anybody else has said it yet. When the top gun locked on your fix You better roll out and do it quick She's gonna burn burn burn burn on your six Sarah Sarah's OODA Sarah's Barak-ak-ak-ak OODA
Posted by: boris at September 07, 2008 09:32 AM (XBfKY) 50
How does Bambi break out of this OODA cycle.....he gets rid of Biden and gets Hillary to step in....but will she? Right now McCain has been inside the Bambi's OODA for at least a month and there is no let up. Bambi can't break the cycle and if he does it will be less than a news cycle. Yesterday he set himself up on Earmarks - $1,000,000 earmark for his wife's employer and she got a $100,000 a year pay raise. Obama's Campaign attack on Palin's parenting and Bambi's remarks on Earmarks has opened the door for attacks for the Ethical missteps on earmarks for your wife's employer. If this keeps up for another two weeks McCain will be well ahead in the Electoral Map and will be flipping a few blue states.........
Posted by: Budahmon at September 07, 2008 10:09 AM (RWIw/) 51
It's simply a case of having the judgement/ability to procure/install better hired guns in your campaign. Obama = Northern Civil War generals McCain = Southern Civil War generals ... Obama = boys McCain = men ... Obama = student McCain = teacher Posted by: Dogstar at September 07, 2008 10:18 AM (6AcsH) 52
Boyd v. Boyington in a dogfight? That's an apple/oranges comparison, but just for the fun of it ... I'd go with Boyington. Actually, I'd go with Dick Bong. He became America's top ace (forty kills) flying a P-38 mostly against Zekes (aka the "Zero"). The P-38 was a great plane with a tremendous climb rate, but it was less maneuverable than the Zeke. But Bong out-maneuvered them with his bigger plane--fought them singly, in plane v. plane dogfights, and won. BTW, his actual number of kills is estimated at 80, but they couldn't be confirmed. Also, I met Boyington and shook his hand a few years before he died. Awesome. Posted by: Steve (aka Ed Snate) at September 07, 2008 10:19 AM (6dBjl) 53
Trying to reverse engineer the McCain Campaign's strategy is just making my head hurt. I see a lot of hints of what he's setting up, and I may be wrong, but making those hints fit into a box labeled "OODA" just drags me away from the fun.
Hint 1. I've seen this referenced by other people, but can't give credit properly, as I can't remember quite who said it. McCain's reference to education in his convention speech seems to be a setup for Obama's Ayers/Annenberg Challenge involvement to come out in the mainstream. Hint 2. McCain's story of how he was "broken" was certainly low-hanging poisoned fruit. Obama hasn't taken the bait yet, but he doesn't seem able to resist these things. Is there anything more dangerous for him under the surface than the obvious blowback against someone who would try to make political hay from the breaking of a POW by his VietCong captors? I seem to remember some nasty smears that claimed that McCain had cooperated with the VC. Maybe he's tempting those back into the open? Hint 3. He's hitting on all cylinders with Palin in terms of exposing Obama's thinley veiled misogyny. I wonder if they aren't hoping for the ultimate coup on this, though. Obama has already called to release the hounds, um, er, I mean, women to attack Palin for him. When this plan fails as spectacularly as I hope it will, will Obama have only one strong, intelligent, devoted woman to stand between him and the evil Hockey Mom? Is McCain really baiting him to unmuzzle Michelle? Do either of the Obamas have the self-control to resist? Hint 4. The recent pressure on Oprah. I don't think this is really about getting Her Majesty to invite Palin over for some free gifts. I think this is really about getting her audience exercised and clamoring for some Moosebell, making it a ratings no-brainer for Oprah's competitors to start ass kissing, bowing and scraping, to get Palin as a guest. They'll be guaranteed a large audience, and they get to score points against Oprah at the same time. Just getting on these shows isn't enough. You have to have the bargaining position to force them to follow the narrative that you want them too, not the one in their pretty little heads. Sure, Ellen can have Palin as a guest, but she can only ask pre-approved questions, and has to give Palin all of the PR moments she wants. Am I reading too much into this? Or, just for the fun of it, are there more poisoned apples on that tree? Been smiling for a whole week now, and looking forward to more fun in this election than I ever dreamed possible. Posted by: Rebecca at September 07, 2008 12:43 PM (NL+2l) 54
Hey Rebecca, I agree there was craft as well as honesty in McCain's "they broke me" admission. It was true before, but he'd never mentioned it, so there's a reason. I mean I'd never ask anyone to talk about such a thing without a very good reason. It takes the "Manchurian" bullshit off the table. It disarms the potential "swiftboating" there are guys out there who do criticize McCain for having cracked and actually accuse him of collaborating. And it presents McCain as a very strong and very honest and very humble man. Weaklings never break, they just get bent over.
Posted by: Ronsonic at September 07, 2008 01:53 PM (ywSvi) 55
Absolutely Mr. Sonic. McCain is playing this game well. Some of the knives he throws have a defensive edge, some an offensive edge, and some are likely to be double edged.
As we can see the defensive edge in this one, is there some, hidden, offensive one? Some history that Obama has provided us that shows him also breaking, but under far less pressure? Or am I so in the tank, a pretty wild pendulum swing for me, that I'm giving him more credit than he deserves? Of course, I'd like to think that it's "us" I'm giving that credit to, as I've always believed that I was on the smarter side politically. A vanity that has been difficult to keep propped up in the recent past. Posted by: Rebecca at September 07, 2008 02:49 PM (NL+2l) Posted by: thebronze at September 07, 2008 03:15 PM (YlH3h) 57
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