1 Obama is selling off significantly on Intrade for the first time in a while.  Right now Obama is under 56 and McCain is over 45 ... for a couple of months now Obama has been trading between 60 and 62, and McCain between 36 and 38.

All of that selloff is this morning.

2 McCain's movement isn't a bounce.  It's a blast-off.

3 Oprah's dissing of Sarah will hurt the former more than the latter.

4 The debates will seal this thing.  And in the coming days expect a move away from "Bush-McCain" policies--it clearly is not selling.  However, do expect a monotonous drone about the unemployment rate (6.1 as of today).  Effective counterpoint:  Raising taxes isn't going to help that, genius.

5 Effective counterpoint:  Raising taxes isn't going to help that, genius.

Neither will keeping gas prices high.

6

Er, looks RACIST to me.

Where are the MSM people screaming about this?

More, importantly, where are the advertiser? 

Seems like Palin would be a huge ratings boost.

7 Is there any way to fund an intrade account from the states?

8

Circa, actually... raising taxes can help the economy.

Much of the economy is driven by foreign investment, and if foreigners think our economy is being mismanaged they pull out. This is why they got skittish in the late 1980s and early 1990s: there was the Savings And Loan mess and the deficit.

When Bush and then Clinton raised taxes, the deficit was halted and foreign investment improved.

We're in agreement that the 1995-96 first Gingrich Congress was the best Congress ever of course.

9 Stinky: right, energy is a commodity and any economy must, must MUST keep commodity prices low. That the Democrats (post Clinton) refuse to acknowledge this proves they are not worthy to govern.

10 WTF? Who said anything about raising taxes?. I specifically described a model that reduces size of government, lowering taxes, and making Government more efficacious in dealing with currently intractable social problems. Ooops, unauthorized bipartisan ideas again.

New goals, yes, but more likely to get through the Congress.

Why can't you folks understand that roughly half of the seats go to democrats, and half to Republicans?

That is how the voters choose to vote. Both parties need to respect their choices and quit playing the Game. The American voters detest the game, which is why most detest Washington.

11 Is there any way to fund an intrade account from the states?

I want to cash in on some of that euro-tardness Obama delusion too.

12 Rasmussen reports  tracks three days of polling. This is the first poll that includes Wednesday. Given these results, I would not be surprised to see McCain/Palin open a lead over the next couple of days.

13 I kinda suspect Oprah will have Sarah Palin on.  Whatever else she is, Oprah's no dummy*, and has proven to be a pretty sharp businesswoman over the years.  Freezing out Palin might (but probably won't, as negative publicity would probably more or less cancel out any "benefit avoided" to Palin) help Obama, but would almost certainly hurt Oprah's bottom line.

* Also note that Oprah abandoned Rev. Wright's church long before Obama did.

14 What is this "Biden" that occasionally gets mentioned?

15 Oh, I'm enjoying this.

Memo to Dems / the media (but wait, I'm being redundant):  you fucked up, assholes.  Now it's costing you.

16

According to Rassmussen, only 1/3 of those polled were polled on Thursday... 2/3 had NOT heard Gov Palin's speech as of the time of this poll.  (Written about here.)

So, the Obama bounce is destroyed, and we have barely hit half-time.  

17 Vyceroy. It's a shame that AoS has fallen into the beartrap intended for Obama and the DNC/radicals.

Oh well. It's not like it's going to change the planning in the slightest.

18 Screw Oprah, I don't think Palin should set foot on her show.

19

Of course, nobody in the media will even talk about a possible relationship between the minimum wage increase that went into effect June 1 and rising unemployment.

20 When Bush and then Clinton raised taxes, the deficit was halted and foreign investment improved.

The deficit was not "halted" by an increase in tax rates. It was reduced by the fact that the economy took off like a shot as a result of productivity gains driven by technology, specifically the Internet. The idea that the government "manages" the economy is one of those ideas that lots of people seem to believe even if there's not much truth to it. (Note: I'm not saying the government doesn't influence the economy, but only communist governments "manage.")

21

 What is this "Biden" that occasionally gets mentioned?

Isn't that one of those fancy French toilet thingies you use to wash your bottom?

22 Also awesome (and only in sidebar): Obama sends Hillary off to campaign against Palin for him. I'm already seeing comments left by PUMAs getting even more pissed off. They're wondering how on earth he won when he needs Hillary to do his work for him. Super cool for us.

Let's all try and be nice to them if you see any, OK? A lot of them are blue collar old-school Dems which is kinda respectible compared to these hard-left progressive nuts.

23 14 - "What is this "Biden" that occasionally gets mentioned?"

He's polling at 48% favorable

24

music: why this constant animosity against "you folks"? If you're so bipartisan then it should be "us folks". Fuck, I just gave a good word for raising taxes and Bill Clinton as President on this site. Somehow I managed that without telling Circa he was a jackass who refused to "understand". That's because I respect his opinion.

Lemme guess: your model for the elected branches of government is to treat elections as a glorified census, whereafter the real rulers of this country nod sagely at the debating society the voters have elected to the Capitol... and then ignore it. In the meantime the career civil mandarinate gets on with the post-partisan work of organising communities, reducing carbon emissions, rationing healthcare and the rest of it.

You're not bipartisan, music; you're just a statist and arrogant douchetool, and you can GFYS.

25 Its only a matter of time until Biden has health issues™ and has to reluctantly step aside.

26

23 14 - "What is this "Biden" that occasionally gets mentioned?"

He's polling at 48% favorable

Give him time.  He'll step in something.

27 Many of my neighbors (still clinging to at least their religion here in Pennsylvania) have been looking for months to find ... "none of the above".  Most of them see Obama as just another DC politician (funny what a "color blind" society gets you).

For many, Palin is new, historic .. she is "none of the above".

Obama has (in football terms) been playing a prevent defense since March and most of his new initiatives haven't allowed him to "close the deal." Besides, his performances without a teleprompter or "stump speech" have been poor, making debates real risky for Obama.

So if McCain gets ahead, it will be McCain's to win or lose, and I fully expect the goings-ons of the last week to look real mild when compared to the most likely "shrill" campaign ahead.

People don't give up their religion very easily .. and trust me .. this is religion.

28 The seats are Half Dem and Half Repubs??

Uhmmm  I guess that is true.
Except that most of  the dem seats were won by lying assholes.
If their their true agenda was known, they would have never been elected.

K

29

 I kinda suspect Oprah will have Sarah Palin on. .  . posted by Suedenim

Oprah's in a fix - she is an extremely smart businesswoman and a Palin show would send ratings through the roof.  However, "O" also knows that giving Palin that spot would also send Palin's (McCain/Palin '0 favoritablity scores through the roof.  Palin would blow the "O's" female audience away not to mention her viewers.   What to do, what to do?

 

30 Its only a matter of time until Biden has health issues™ and has to reluctantly step aside.

Perhaps one of those clips that pinches the aneurysms in Biden's brain will come loose. You think ??

Maybe that "Eagleton" meme isn't dead yet.

31 And you accuse them of taking the "we are the only one's who are right about everything" line?

There's such a thing in politics called maintaining ambivalence. It's good for creative thinking.

But then again I assume the reason for partisan politics is that each side wants to be the side that carves up the trillion dollars. I can understand that, but as a governance stregy it causes intractable political gridlock, and ultimately not much gets accomplished without caveats put in to send some tasty dollars to the winning parties' supporters.

32 Intrade is fine but I have found MUCH better opportunities on a few sportsbook sites.
First, you typically can find 100% match "sign up bonuses. Or at least 20% load bonuses.

Then, there's the odds. Currently, the books I use have McCain +150 and +180 (i.e. wager $10, win $15 or $1

It was as high as +210 (Wager $10, win $21).

Those lines don't change as quickly as Intrade as the market is not as fluid. However, unlike Intrade, you can't sell back if things turn (like a scandal breaks).

It's a straight bet.

Anyhow, the anecdotal reason that the lines don't shift is because on a nearly 10-1 basis, gamblers (sportsbook types) are democrats and highly supportive of Obama. This is because the Republicans have authored legislation to shut down the sportsbook gambling...

Anyhow, that means that the Dem bettors keep pounding the line for Obama, creating big $$ opportunity for me.

I have made money the last two elections -bigtime-- playing the discounts from poll bumps like Kerry "slaughtering" Bush in the debates. Lines shifted from 1-1 to 3-1. (Democrats pounding the line)

The way I see it, elections like this are a 50/50 prop. A Coin toss at best. If someone offered you 2-1 on a coin toss, you'd be insane not to take the bet.

33 Oprah's in a fix

I'll say she is.  By not having Palin on, it also means it will be hard to have Obama or Biden on without it looking like an illegal "corporate contribution" to the Obama campaign.

34 illegal "corporate contribution"

I had not thought of that.  Burn.

35 But then again I assume the reason for partisan politics is that each side Democrats want to be the side that carves up the trillion dollars.  And hand it out like candy to buy more votes for their party.

There I fixed that for you Music!

K

36 But then again I assume the reason for partisan politics is that each side wants to be the side that carves up the trillion dollars.

Wrong.  I just want to keep most of what is mine.

That is the difference.  You want something from somebody else (I believe it's called a "handout").  I just want most of what is already mine.  It fits into that meme about getting government of my back.

37

Farmer Joe, "The deficit was not "halted" by an increase in tax rates. It was reduced by the fact that the economy took off like a shot as a result of productivity gains driven by technology, specifically the Internet. The idea that the government "manages" the economy is one of those ideas that lots of people seem to believe even if there's not much truth to it. (Note: I'm not saying the government doesn't influence the economy, but only communist governments "manage.") "

We are all talking about many different things. (Except for Music, whose opinion doesn't count.)

The deficit is the government spending / revenue difference. Spending is entirely a function of government, while revenue is more wishful thinking based on tax rates. That much indirectly influences the economy. International investors (wisely or not) look at tax rates as an indicator for how serious the government is about reducing the deficit. This reading of tea leaves and entrails (fortunately or not), and how foreigners treat our stock as a result, influences the economy too... That is why I made the (devil's advocate) pitch for the Clinton tax hike.

I got my information from The Pact by Steven M Gillon. It makes the argument that Clinton was a patsy of the Congress(es) pretty much from 1993 on. Foreign investors demanded a rollback of the deficit. Perot's showing of 19% added to Clinton's own plurality (which was wholly economy-based) led Clinton to believe that he had a mandate for deficit reduction. Clinton wanted to cut spending and "middle class" taxes. But Foley's Democrats blocked him. Hence, "OMNIBUS BUDGET RECONCILIATION ACT OF 1993".

The book doesn't mention the productivity gains as factoring into the Clinton / Foley / Gingrich negotiations with the international finance brigades as of August 1993. I was listening to and watching Limbaugh (he had a TV show then too) in autumn 1993, and Limbaugh did mention productivity. But...

By international investors, I mean George Soros (pre-moonbat), who in September 1992 had just thrown Britain's economy right off the euro ERM. We have to remember what the US government was worrying about in the following summer. There's Soros going, "nice economy you got there, shame if something happened to it". Productivity gains? Meaningless to Soros, if he's got reason to believe they'd be frittered away in American bank accounts (to be invested offshore) and in American spending free-for-alls. Soros wanted the US to balance its books.

How much productivity could we have kept running if our economy had been hollowed out in late 1993 by an international run on our finances?

38 h, so it's different when its Republicans controlling the divvying-up of the kitty?

Again I support tax cuts, including for those whose jobs involve making the money move so that things get accomplished. The wealthy understand what money can accomplish and impact the economy more than those outside the club, and I support letting them accomplish more real world results with their money.

How is that Statist?

39 Music: us Republicans are sick and tired of the Dems' idea of compromise.

Case in Point: The Dem response to the '05 State of the Union address. First SOTU since Bush's reelection. Harry Reid starts off by saying "Congratulations on your reelection Mr. President. Now YOU need to compromise with US." That statement stuck in my mind, and I've seen that Dem attitude time and time again. It's bullshit, and we're not in the mood to take their crap anymore.

40 We are the ones Godet has been waiting for.

41 Fortitudine vincimus.
By endurance we conquer.

Campaign on your own terms, Sarah!

Vice Presidents don't go on Oprah while in office.
Cheney?
Al Gore?
Quayle?
Bush?

42 Music, some Republicans (like McCain) want to reduce that trillion dollars and let the American people keep more of it. Wouldn't you rather decide for yourself how to spend your money than paying some Washington bureaucrat $100K/yr to decide for you?

Maybe you don't pay any taxes but don't you know someone who does? A family member, a friend, or small business owner you like?

43 "Oprah's in a fix"

Right about now, the media business folks are starting to realize...  "Shit!  We're going to have to live with this woman in high, high office for maybe the next sixteen years!"  There will be internal pressure to back off and maybe even make nice.

44 Hillary is between a rock and a hard place.  Evidently the check from The Chosen One to retire her campaign debt hasn't arrived yet.  I'm sure 'it's in the mail'.  If Hillary supports Barry and he wins, she'd have a hefty IOU from her party.  If Barry's administration tanks, Hillary will share the blame and have a hard time positioning herself to save the DNC brand with a campaign of her own in 2012.  If Hillary goes out for Barry, all those ads she put out last summer will come back to haunt her.  The rebuttal writes itself.  "Were you lying then Hillary, or are you lying now?" 

45

PALIN: Scully

GOP: Mulder

46

So- Obama has been campaigning for President since forever, and he has finally pulled even with the old white guy and the previously-unknown governor?

Pret-ty changey...

47

  Did we miss something?

  AP reports Palin speech before it happens

  The title, "Palin to jab Obama, cast herself as outsider", is honest, but the story itself is definitely written in the past tense.

  It also looks like they quoted parts of the speech she didn't use.

48 Also: fuck Oprah. She represents the feminization and infantilization of American culture.

49

"Were you lying then Hillary, or are you lying now?" 

Too easy.  Both.

50 Bounce? Jeez, Ace, why don't you just call Obama a basketball-dribbling, uppity negro! This racism disgusts every right-thinking American.

51

Apologies if anyone else has said this, but

If Oprah refuses to have Sarah Palin on her show, it's because of racism.

Right?

52 Right?

Absolutely. Unfortunately, I just learned she did the same thing to Justice Thomas.

I want to know that if MSNBC is giving their press passes to Code Pinkos in order to disrupt the convention, is anyone going to have the balls to suspend press passes to them?

53

Run with it, Jones. Oprah fears uppity white women!

Actually what Oprah can't stand are people who treat their mistakes as momentary obstalces and overcome them, rather than as symptoms of inherent dysfunction in need of lifelong Therapy.

54 Aw, shucks; I'm such a kid sometime.

55 Oprah not showing a woman who made her way up though the PTA to govern a state, while having 5 kids including one with down syndrome?

That story may just not interest her audience.

K

56 "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."

-- Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

57 I say the Maverick/Cuda ticket should have a new slogan:
"Real Change."

58 Oprah recently realized that when you become partisan after you were always seen as above it all, you're going to alienate roughly half your audience. I think she just wants to go back to being above it all. But the cats out of the bag. The best she can do now is be "balanced" --but that won't work either.

59 "Buy the ticket, take the ride"

Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

60 runninrebel:

It's a matter of being way above it all.

Stop by; we can order a pizza.

61 I say the Maverick/Cuda ticket should have a new slogan:
"Real Change."

I just got a memo from Barak Hussein party headquarters.  It says that the new slogan for their campaign has been 'modified' to the following:

"Change, Really!"

Please have all correspondence adjusted accordingly.

62

1) You guys are such partisan douchbags. America needs to be brought together and partisanship should be curtailed. I'm not going to say exactly how, because the only real answer is the takeover of the country by an unaccountable "impartial" civil services... so... uh... you're a bunch of partisan douchbags!

2) Hocus pocus dominocus! hehe, look at all you rethugs falling for my bullshit.

3) Aw shucks, I suck a cock sometimes. I mean I'm such a cock sometimes. Uh...

63 oh, rich.

runninrebel:

It's been 28 years and you're still sexually obsessed with me?

You are such a STALKER! bwaaha.

They sure did use us for one helluva mind-scam didn't they?

It didn't work though, and has cost Obama the election. They all know that. It was a big stakes gamble and they've lost their shirts.

Serves 'em right.

64

If Hillary supports Barry and he wins, she'd have a hefty IOU from her party.  If Barry's administration tanks, Hillary will share the blame and have a hard time positioning herself to save the DNC brand with a campaign of her own in 2012.  If Hillary goes out for Barry, all those ads she put out last summer will come back to haunt her.  The rebuttal writes itself.  "Were you lying then Hillary, or are you lying now?" 

Here's one more possibility:

If Hillary tells Barry to go fuck himself, and her supporters cross over (along with her aides, as seems to be happening) and she quietly supports the other side, I think that campaign debt might not stick around too long.

Hell, several of us would probably help pay it back.

 

65 The latest slime is photos alleged to be Palin's daughter with some other kids holding bottles of booze.  However, if you compare the family photos of her from 2006, 2007, and 2008 , no way is she the girl in the photos. Her face and body is different. I've argued this with moonbats already but of course "they can't see it."

Seriously, electing McCain/Palin will stop me from beating the crap out of a moonbat.

66

When Bush and then Clinton raised taxes, the deficit was halted and foreign investment improved.

  

I remember Bush losing an election for raising taxes and also because the conservative vote was split.

I remember Clinton raising taxes & trying to nationalize healthcare and then the Dems losing the House for the first time in 44 years.

Then I remeber the Republican Congress balancing the budget with an assist from the peace dividend and the productivity gains from technology.

  

67 The latest slime is photos alleged to be Palin's daughter with some other kids holding bottles of booze.

Rebellious teenagers buying booze! OMG! Stop the presses!

68 and tax cuts on top of it.

Shows what Republican ingenuity can accomplish.

Within a Constitutional Republic context, of course.

69 Music: Diderot's Dog with paragraph breaks

70

Who believes the polls.  How did these two polls perform in 1994; 1988, 1980.  Where there is a fifty-fifty chance these guys blew it.

 

Personally I believe we will see something like 1972.

71 If Hillary! drops Barry and goes back to the Senate, dethrones Reid and pledging to work with the McCain administration, that would be really interesting

72

I thought television licenses granted by the FCC required providing political candidates equal time.

Oprah appears to be blatently violating the law.

73 WTF?  Oprah just said she won't let any candidate on her show, after she let Obama on her show?  WTF?

74 PLEASE post YouTube videos from the Mad TV Oprah spoofs.

75 I think The One appeared on Oprah's show before he (officially) became a candidate, so that keeps her from running afoul of the FEC.

76 She does hog the mic, doesn't she Dogstar?

77 Christoph,
Are you now going to tell me about how the bounce last week was real?
Does the fact that the polls do the same damned thing every time mean anything?

78 after she let Obama on her show

I think it was Michelle rather the Hussein, so she should be able to have Todd on.

79 WTF?  Oprah just said she won't let any candidate on her show, after she let Obama on her show?  WTF?

She won't let any candidate on her show NOW.  Ya see, it's very subtle and nuanced.  Obviously much too much for us morons to figure out.

It amazes me that stupid shit like this doesn't irreparably destroy these people's reputations. 

Oh, how silly of me.  This is these idiots reputations.  How could this possible hurt them?

80 Music = Dr. Hunter S. Thompson
Reality = .45-caliber pistol

81 Oh, shit, McCain's doomed now.  He's lost..... the New York Times!

82

From Drudge - OPRAH'S STATEMENT: "The item in today's Drudge Report is categorically untrue. There has been absolutely no discussion about having Sarah Palin on my show. At the beginning of this Presidential campaign when I decided that I was going to take my first public stance in support of a candidate, I made the decision not to use my show as a platform for any of the candidates. I agree that Sarah Palin would be a fantastic interview, and I would love to have her on after the campaign is over." (emphasis added)

Now that's a damned convenient position to take, what with her having labeled Barry "The One" and all.

It's possible that we could see ourselves essentially rid of Barry, Hillary and Oprah with this election. KRYMB!

83 Well, I think political savvy realizes that Clinton won because he had fans, not because voters read position papers. "Issues politics" is dead. Things are consumer-oriented and people choose their vehicles because of the name of the model more than by doing research. The election will be decided by the fans, and Palin has an incredible number of fans right now. McCain's got fans too, but for different reasons. Obama did have a lot of fans, but this exposure of the dirty mind-scam will make the fans buy into someone else-- Palin or McCain.

And yes, we have been doing this since I was 17. We're all good friends, even when we trash each other out over the Crunk. It was a blast in high school, and I don't see that Presidential politics is much different than auditioning to get into the Swing Choir. The college level is more suited to people who like to read books without pictures, rather than type keywords in to Google. But the bottom line is that it's a popularity contest, and probably has been ever since Andrew Jackson. Ramp that up with lightspeed communications and sophisticated dissemination of information and you still have a popularity contest-- it just is more of a treacherous roller coaster, like all high school social politics.

That's why sticking to the drama in which the characters change by paying attention to their own performances is so much fun. But it's not the thesis-antithesis-synthesis of the Game anymore. It worked from the Hanseatic League until recently, but this seems to be more of a well-written dramatic presentation. And Obama looks more and more like Iago or Edmund Gloster, schemers who come to a bad end.

84 Music,
Keeping it crazy since a couple of days ago when he/she/it decided to change handles.

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