Michael Totten: Georgia Didn't Start the War

TBILISI, GEORGIA – Virtually everyone believes Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili foolishly provoked a Russian invasion on August 7, 2008, when he sent troops into the breakaway district of South Ossetia. “The warfare began Aug. 7 when Georgia launched a barrage targeting South Ossetia,” the Associated Press reported over the weekend in typical fashion.
Virtually everyone is wrong. Georgia didn't start it on August 7, nor on any other date. The South Ossetian militia started it on August 6 when its fighters fired on Georgian peacekeepers and Georgian villages with weapons banned by the agreement hammered out between the two sides in 1994. At the same time, the Russian military sent its invasion force bearing down on Georgia from the north side of the Caucasus Mountains on the Russian side of the border through the Roki tunnel and into Georgia. This happened before Saakashvili sent additional troops to South Ossetia and allegedly started the war.

Worth reading in full, though Captain Ed provides a digest if you only have that.

Despite the fact that the Russians started it, and have behaved monstrously for their own cynical agenda of empire-rebuilding, I can't say the situation is quite clear-cut as regards the "renegade provinces." Yet again we have territory which contains a mix of ethnicities. The Georgians, of course, want to protect the Georgians living in the provinces (who themselves want to be governed by a Georgian government); but others in the provinces don't want to be under Georgian rule, and are perfectly willing to kill to express this preference. The country had a nasty civil war in the early nineties, so there's plenty of bloodlust to go 'round. Seems to me that there are two questions here which shouldn't be confused: 1, was Russia right to invade and bomb cities in Georgia, and 2, is the Georgians' "right" to rule the disputed provinces so great we should support that, or, indeed, if they should seek such rule themselves.

A great short briefing on the situation and history.

Totten under Cyberattack... Most likely from Russian hackers. Correction: I meant to say Russian hackers, and specifically note they weren't necessarily government hackers (invading other countries is wildly popular in Russia). But the word "government" was stuck in my head and I brain-farted.

Guess it's a good time to note Totten's work is reader-supported.

Posted by: Ace at 01:49 PM

Comments

1 I thought the Georgians killed thousands and blew up a church before raping all the children?
Man, I guess I shouldn't believe every comment on the blogs any more.

Posted by: Rocks at August 26, 2008 01:55 PM (Q1lie)

2 Okay so the truth is out on the web.
What are the chances that the MSM will cover this, while hiding under their desks.
THe Russians are saying that our Navy is not just giving humanitarian aid. There is a hint of blockade.
We can only hope that the better angels of the Russian leaders will hold sway.
Oh wait for the angels to be involved there would have to be a belief in G-d.

Posted by: jimmytheleg at August 26, 2008 01:57 PM (WWZAC)

3 I thought the Georgians killed thousands and blew up a church before raping all the children?

Yeah, all on orders from some guy who works for McCain.

Posted by: Brendan at August 26, 2008 02:01 PM (2jQGY)

4 All I care about is which side has the UN Resolution supporting their actions. Because only the U.S. acts unilaterally.

Or so I heard.

Posted by: scooter (still not libby) at August 26, 2008 02:02 PM (4wR/C)

5 Well Obama has just given a press release saying that Russia shouldn't recognize South Ossetia.
So I guess we now know how the UN stands in this case.

Posted by: jimmytheleg at August 26, 2008 02:08 PM (WWZAC)

6 Where is that worn woman so we can bitch slap her some more?

Posted by: grc at August 26, 2008 02:09 PM (YleVG)

7 Russia had better comply with what Obama said.

Posted by: Tim Kaine at August 26, 2008 02:11 PM (Q1lie)

8 Every news reporter in the U.S. and Europe should be shitting their pants in shame right now. Are you, you know, reporters or just a bunch of hacks who add a little flair to stuff that comes over the wire services? Did you find out anything new? Did you actually leave the office and ask questions that someone didn't want you to ask, and then look for other sources of info once they refused to give an official line? Did you attempt to verify it? Did you state the source of authority on your reportage?

M. Totten puts their sorry, sorry asses to shame.

Posted by: mr.frakypants at August 26, 2008 02:19 PM (PonvG)

9 Forgot to add:

Our pathetic excuses for journos just think they've been to j-school. What they don't know is that they actually haven't been, until they've read this article.

Posted by: mr.frakypants at August 26, 2008 02:20 PM (PonvG)

THe Russians are saying that our Navy is not just giving humanitarian aid. There is a hint of blockade.

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm certainly not going to make much noise if a few crateloads of M-16 ammo goes "missing" from bases near where the humanitarian aid comes from

Posted by: buzzion at August 26, 2008 02:23 PM (Lrsi6)

One reason I support the independence of Abkhazia: outside of Abkhazia, that's it for Abkhaz speakers. Abkhazia may be "ethnically mixed" but that is not helpful for Abkhazians; quite the opposite.

By contrast, the South Ossetians have North Ossetia to fall back on, and even if the whole language died out there is still Persian.

Safeguarding the Abkhazian language and culture ought to be a humanitarian priority of the world at large, and not entrusted to the Georgians.

Posted by: David Ross at August 26, 2008 02:32 PM (GwV+j)

12 So remind me again - in Abkhazia, who's side are the Dementors on?

Posted by: Eric J at August 26, 2008 02:45 PM (fbwu0)

13 So let me get this straight - a national leader who rewrites the constitution to expand his powers, rejiggers the legislature to eliminate opposition, shuts down newspapers with opposing views and transparently assassinates journalists without even bothering to cover it up - might invent a pretext to invade a neighboring country?

That's just crazy talk.

Posted by: A. Moron at August 26, 2008 02:49 PM (fbwu0)

14 I don't know about anyone else, but I'm certainly not going to make much noise if a few crateloads of M-16 ammo goes "missing" from bases near where the humanitarian aid comes from

Same here buzzion. I'm just watching the MSM talk around the issue w/o talking about the story that started this whole new comment thingy.

Posted by: jimmytheleg at August 26, 2008 02:50 PM (WWZAC)

"Safeguarding the Abkhazian language and culture ought to be a humanitarian priority of the world at large..."

Great, just what we need. The Balkanization of the world into tribal enclaves. Maybe one day we can be as successful with that as Africa. I think this quote is far more appropriate:

"The only institutions really worth preserving through law are themselves the legal institutions of individual rights - that is, the protection of life, liberty, and private property. No other cultural institution should be protected by law - not types of clothing, not religious beliefs, and not dialects. Those are to be tested in the dynamic marketplace of ideas."
--Stuart K. Hayashi

Posted by: Flubber at August 26, 2008 03:00 PM (tvI8L)

16 I'm back!

Posted by: The Reichstag Fire at August 26, 2008 03:09 PM (6L459)

17 Spaceghost is back but posting under a different moniker - tinkerbelle. I guess he's too chickenshit to retract his bullshit.

Posted by: grc at August 26, 2008 03:10 PM (YleVG)

I think one thing we should require of our international friends before we commit a single American soldier is that they don't get themselves into a world of shit out of sheer stupidity.

If you're going to throw it down in Ossetia with hostile troops massed a day away you'd better have a pretty damned good plan to block that tunnel.

How does one say, "Hey, hold my beer!' in Georgian?

Posted by: spongeworthy at August 26, 2008 03:21 PM (a00go)

You know, one thing that everyone keeps missing out of this whole "should Georgia rule people who don't want to be ruled by them" thing is that Ossetia has never, ever been a separate republic and the Ossetian people have lived WITHIN the Georgian border for centuries.

The northern border along the Caucasus Mountains has always been Georgia's border. Even after making a compact with Catherine the Great (II) for protection from the Ottomans. It has never changed. This whole "Ossetia Independence" thing is as much fake propaganda as who fired what first.

At most, the Ossetians have represented a sort of mountain people that continue to carry on the traditions of their ancestors: mainly to rob unlucky travelers going through the Caucasus. Way back in the day (500 years +), when the Silk Road passed on the way to Iran, caravans would go north towards the Scythian Steppes and on to Muscovy to sell some of their goods. Travelers would return south with Russian gems and gold. That is why the Ossetians settled along that way. They were hardly indigenous people living in some separate country absorbed by Georgia.

Second, issue, no one seems to consider, the entire point of having the Caucasus to the north as the border is that it serves as both a natural border and a natural defense line against the Russians. Thus, the continuing talk about the Roki tunnel and the repaired rail road in Abkhazia bringing armor south along the coast. There are very few ways to invade Georgia. Those are it. There are also only a few ways to get goods in and out of Georgia. whoever controls these areas, controls Georgia. At least to the extent that, should the Ossetians be "free" they can invite Russian military to sit in their little territory with big guns and missiles pointing at Tbilisi. their tanks and army do not have to cross the Caucasus, wait for good weather on the mountains or otherwise have any impediment, obstacle, even to slow them down. In effect, having serious power over the politics of Georgia.

That is why the Georgian's have objected all of this time. Of course, that is why the Russians started invading on any pretext because, had they even given Saakashvili a chance to do half the things they claimed, he would have had the Roki or the bridge that came after that at little cost and the Russians would have been in a bad situation.

thus, when discussing all of this "should Georgia keep Ossetia", I'll ask in return if any of you are willing to return Texas, California, the Oklahoma Territory or even my state of Missouri (that straddles the east/west I-70 corridor) to the "original owners" or any "indigenous" groups that reside there?

Posted by: kat-missouri at August 26, 2008 04:13 PM (YLs4U)

To add a bit to kat-missouri ...the Russians did a major bit of ethnic cleansing in S. Ossetia "some time back" (sorry, can't find the link, but as I recall it was a couple of decades or so), and moved a crap-load of Russian speaking people into the province precisely to be able to make the claim. This has been in the works for a lot longer than the day before yesterday.

I ain't gonna link her again, but Caroline Glick has been red-hot on the strategic implications here. T'ain't lookin' none to good neither, boys. [spit]

Posted by: davis,br at August 26, 2008 04:29 PM (zewwG)

21 Having a few crates of 5.56 fall off a truck is all well and good but a couple of hundred shoulder fired anti-tank missiles would be more to the point.

Posted by: aubrey at August 26, 2008 04:57 PM (P96YG)

I'll add to davis: Georgia represents a flight pattern that we use to and from Tajikistan and Afghanistan from Incirlik and other European air bases.

In the scheme of things, if something came down with Iran, Turkey is unlikely to give us overflight. Very unlikely for Iraq as well. We'd be stuck flying either only from the south or flying from Europe, over Georgia and into Iran.

Obviously, that is now not likely as the Soviets would declare it an act of aggression against them and something really horrible might happen.

Russia signed a contract for a second reactor with Iran that's been in the works for awhile and delivered fuel for the first one earlier this year.

Any questions?

Posted by: kat-missouri at August 26, 2008 05:02 PM (YLs4U)

Uh, gee kat ...thanks for ruining my whole fricking evening. I did not know that. I had not even considered that. So. This was than, a shot across the bows directly aimed at the US to counter (part, at least) of an Iran war plan; and not just a grab at the pipeline. (Not asking a question; thinking "out loud".) Putin is ...hmm ...I'm gonna have to think on this one awhile ...pretty shocking motivations implicit in this though. Crap. Just ...crap.

Posted by: davis,br at August 26, 2008 07:52 PM (zewwG)

@22: I'm betting Putin sold it for cash up-front, too. Pretty smart move on the Russian part: they make a tidy little lump of coin, and then the whole shebang gets bombed by the IAF.

There's probably a "no backsies" clause in the sales agreement for stuff like that, too.

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 26, 2008 09:39 PM (hCSTJ)

25 In the scheme of things, if something came down with Iran, Turkey is unlikely to give us overflight. Very unlikely for Iraq as well.

You say that like it is obvious. I'm a moron so please explain especially WRT Iraq.

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