Frank Lutz Focus Group of Undecideds: Obama Must Change Message or Lose Swing Voter

Oddly, though, of the 21 undecideds quizzed, 12 had voted for Bush in 2004. Prudence would have suggested a 50/50 split.

[A]nother disturbing element for Mr Obama was how sceptical and even dismissive most of the group was about the word that has been central to his campaign - change. Some voters believed Mr Obama could not relate to them and did not share their everyday concerns.
"Stop giving me all these general things," said Doug, 48, a fireman. "I want specifics, not pie in the sky. There were nods around the room. "He has to put some substance behind the charismatic talk," interjected another man.
A woman in her 60s said: "I want less oratory; show me what you have done and what you are going to do." Sondra, 43, a catering manager, said: "Change for change's sake got us in this mess. We want change but we're afraid of what it might bring."
Asked to address Mr Obama directly, the voters said: "How are you going to get it done?"; "Prove you have experience."; "How will you fix things?"; "Stop the dramatic talk, we want reality."; "Focus on issues, not personality."; "Don't just give me an empty balloon."
Most of the undecided voters said they wanted "accountability" rather than change. From a long list of election concerns, 17 highlighted a top theme of Mr McCain's: "Ending wasteful Washington spending and balancing the federal budget."
The next most important concern was "reducing inflation and keeping costs down", with ten votes while "Ending American dependence on foreign oil" and "bringing accountability and honesty back to the government" got nine.
Some favourite concerns of Democrats were virtually ignored. "Holding President Bush accountable for all his mistakes and failures" got two votes and "Improving our global image and public support internationally" just one - another indication that Mr Obama's recent foreign trip and speech in Berlin were mistakes.
Using electronic dials to register their second-by-second reactions, the voters were shown television advertisements from each candidate. Again, the results were encouraging for Mr McCain.
Although most of the 21 said they did not like the concept behind Mr McCain's notorious "Celebrity" ad, which compared the Democrat with Paris Hilton and Britney Spears - one said "crap", another "ridiculous" - a dozen conceded it made Mr Obama look bad.
The Obama ad that attacked Mr McCain for having seven houses and not being able to recall the number fell flat. But Mr McCain's response ad that highlighted a land deal Mr Obama had struck with Tony Rezko, a real estate dealer subsequently convicted of corruption, prompted more than half the dials to shoot up.
A couple of the voters suggested that Americans did not resent wealth. "I really don't care how many houses you have but it does matter how you got that house," said Doug.

Byron York also digests the focus groups' findings.

Posted by: Ace at 05:12 PM

Comments

1 Sondra, 43, a catering manager, said: "Change for change's sake got us in this mess. We want change but we're afraid of what it might bring."

Wha?

Posted by: ECM at August 25, 2008 05:18 PM (q3V+C)

2 That is only one off a 50?50 split

Posted by: cv at August 25, 2008 05:28 PM (GmamD)

Yeah.. but here's the thing about focus groups, especially 'undecideds', give me the first two questions and 2 ringers, and I can get the whole damn bunch saying whatever I want them to.

I mean hell, they're undecided. That means they have no clue what the hell they are talking about. If they did, they'd have made a damn decision. They're just waiting to see what everyone else says so they can say the same thing.

Basic cascade effect. Set up the first guy to say something like "I thought Obama seemed 'floofy' during the debate" and all 20 of them will be piping in "yeah, floofy. He was floofy." - 'Yeah, I saw that too! During that one question about abortion, he totally floofed there."

Then one guy will stand up and tell an anecdote about how his brother was a very floofy person, so he knows one when sees one, and Obama was definetly floofy.

Posted by: Entropy at August 25, 2008 05:36 PM (HgAV0)

4 You know, whenever I hear all this certainty that Obama must win thanks to 'common opinions', I recall that the same thing was said in 2004 for Kerry.

Obama may not really be running a bad campaign so much as he really has nothing to campaign on. He's appealing to both sides of many issues by being vague, and he has no accomplishments whatsoever (this is so shocking to me... he's never accomplished ANYTHING and the democrats think he should be the most powerful man in the world). Obama will fall flatter and flatter unless Mccain does something stupid (and he has shown he can be stupid, of course).

Obama's biggest action: choosing Biden. Out of the tens of millions of democrats, he picked Joe Biden.

Posted by: ▄█▀ █■█ █ █▄ █▄ at August 25, 2008 05:40 PM (8jYMc)

5 We need a focus group to weigh in on how voters can possibly be so ignorant as to be undecided at this stage in the game.

Posted by: DCox at August 25, 2008 05:50 PM (2pT9a)

"Ending wasteful Washington spending and balancing the federal budget."

Yeah would be nice BUT how will the paranoid hypochondriacs get their stem-cell-cure-all research money. Or where will the womyn going to get their abortion money. Or who will pay for all the alternative corn research and how will T Boone survive without his subsidized windmill money?

In any case, if the undecideds need more information in order to make a decison then they are already a lost cause.

Posted by: syn at August 25, 2008 05:56 PM (U/PTC)

7 Morning-after syndrome. The high wore off, and now you're contemplating chewing off your own arm...

Posted by: mojo at August 25, 2008 05:59 PM (g1cNf)

8 A few months in a Reeducation Camp will have these misguided, misinformed, imperialist counter-revolutionaries back in line.

Posted by: Actual at August 25, 2008 06:02 PM (dRdno)

9 Morning-after syndrome. Heh heh. Obama is the first coyote-ugly candidate.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 25, 2008 06:06 PM (AZGON)

Obama is the first coyote-ugly candidate.

I'm sure that must be racist! Let me think about it a while and I'll get back to you on what you nuanced form of racism you are accused guilty of...

Oh Oh Oh wait, I got it... "coyote-ugly" is like code for buyer's remorse, right? And who "buys" black guys? Anyone? Beauregard?... Fucking slave-owners, that's who! Orwell, you heartless bastard!

Posted by: sherlock at August 25, 2008 06:28 PM (cq3pU)

11 This is what happens when amateurs think they're ready to turn pro.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 25, 2008 07:00 PM (6L459)

12 I really like the word <i>Floofy</i>!

Posted by: ParisParamus at August 25, 2008 07:30 PM (xNjnr)

13 Prudence is a slut.

Posted by: CozMark at August 25, 2008 07:50 PM (Pk0V9)

Hah @ George Orwell!

Maybe interesting: Based upon an interview I heard, that focus group was paid for by AARP, a group that would love to hear a collectivist outcome. Lutz (in the interview on Dennis Miller), practically oozed over his new-found respect for Joe Biden, but the results of his focus group depicted an electorate fed up with focus groups. He showed them 21 commercials and they panned them all. They even panned the McCain commercial, with Biden's own words about Obama and McCain, and the focus group panned the commercial, basically saying they expected politicians to lie for convenience.

Sure makes me want to donate money to campaigns for commercials and focus groups!

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15 Obama is losing the everyman vote? No shit, he HATES the everyman. Fuckin' racists.

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