LAT Poll Can Only Manage to Put Obama Up by 2 Among Registered (Not Likely) Voters

A ten point fall since their last poll, but their last poll was almost certainly bullshit in the first place (it "confirmed" Newsweek's ridiculous 15 point advantage -- but both outfits, having claimed that their polls were dead-on and not outliers or just plain goofs, now have to explain why this "huge lead" has now disappeared).

This is interesting. But note Megan McArdle is getting this from McCain's camp.

I've obviously seen the tightening national polls, and what I'm starting to hear is that among likelies and battlegrounds, McCain's gaining a commanding lead. Since I'm hearing that from McCain supporters, however, I've been a little sceptical. Less so after this weekend.

The lead can't be "commanding" or we'd at least see a hint of it in public polls. But it might be there, in a non-commanding fashion.

Posted by: Ace at 06:19 PM

Comments

1 There might not be a "commanding" lead but I can see how McCain's people would describe it that way in light of what the expectations were for this election. The Dem should be crushing the R right now.

Posted by: runninrebel at August 19, 2008 06:26 PM (0n9wc)

2 Barry just asked if he could borrow the keys to my tank.

Posted by: Mike Dukakis at August 19, 2008 06:29 PM (+MtXg)

3 I wonder if that's why Maverick is getting frisky and thinking he might be able get away with a pro-choice running mate or even off the board entirely and pick his best Democratic buddy, Lieberman.

All I can say is...Don't get cocky kid.

Posted by: DrewM. at August 19, 2008 06:30 PM (hlYel)

4 Given the bias in the media, the Obama Girl Effect, and how laughably weak polling is at telling the real picture, McCain might very well be up by 15 points as far as we know. Doesn't matter - the only poll that matters is in November, and frankly I wish there was a way both of them could lose.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 19, 2008 06:31 PM (0+Ggj)

5 The rule of thumb I have always used is with any D vs R poll is to subtract 4 from the D and add 4 to the R.

Posted by: The Atom Bomb of Loving Kindness at August 19, 2008 06:34 PM (Pl6My)

This poll guarantees that O's VP pick will be Hillary.

Posted by: Judd at August 19, 2008 06:40 PM (BXHeE)

7 Hey, Obama recently stated he believes in reparations for slavery. Great.

Posted by: grc at August 19, 2008 07:00 PM (YleVG)

8 At Townhall, says that tomorrow morning Zogby's poll of likelies have McCain up by 5 or 8.

Posted by: wickedpinto at August 19, 2008 07:05 PM (ul7te)

9 Damn, I left out the economy thing. but who cares, all will be available tomorrow if it's true.

Posted by: wickedpinto at August 19, 2008 07:06 PM (ul7te)

grc, Obama is very much aware of the reparations movement. TUCC preached about it all the time.

Google.com is trying very hard to bury this information behind a lot of sites denying this; by, for instance, showing right-wing partisan blogs quoting the evidence rather than showing the evidence itself. But it can still be found...

I don't expect actual reparations from O but I do expect there to be demands by government officials and well-connected media for corporations to adhere to the principles of reparations.

Reparations will come later.

Posted by: David Ross at August 19, 2008 07:07 PM (rRIms)

11 Not only is Barry very likely to flop big time this year, I bet he gets booted from the Senate next election.

Nice.

Posted by: eman at August 19, 2008 07:32 PM (qg185)

12 If I heard correctly, on the radio they reported that Obama while addressing minority reporters in Chicago stated he supported reparations for slavery. This address occured recently. So, he is more than just aware of the reparations movement.

Posted by: grc at August 19, 2008 07:34 PM (YleVG)

13 Wasn't a trillion bucks worth of LBJ's "great society" social spending enough reparations?

Does every generation get to go to this well and wet its beak?

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 19, 2008 07:40 PM (6L459)

14 If we could simultaneously end racial preferences/set-asides and any form of welfare, reparations might not be that bad of an idea. Think of it as a lump-sum payment instead of an annuity.

Of course race hucksters like O would never go for that.

Posted by: Andy at August 19, 2008 07:46 PM (iIvIk)

I still don't think Hillary will accept the VP nom from somebody who is so obviously losing at this point.

Posted by: funky chicken at August 19, 2008 07:52 PM (xyyHG)

16 Well, this explains Obama's "Hey, John McCain should just be nice to me and let me win." moment at the VFW.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 19, 2008 07:53 PM (T5okf)

17 Just got my dress on, and I'm clearing out my throat. Should be ready to sing any time now.

Posted by: The Fat Lady at August 19, 2008 08:02 PM (6L459)

Andy, oh, the hucksters'll go for that. The money will get spent on "investing in schools" (i.e. thrown away on "programs" and not class). Then they'll find some other excuse.

grc, we're talking about the same event (28 July). Interesting that radio has picked up on it...

Obama's goose is so cooked I can smell cranberry sauce through his youtube commercials.

Posted by: David Ross at August 19, 2008 08:02 PM (rRIms)

If Hillary was interested in veep, folks like this guy would not be helping Stanley Kurtz get his story out:

http://globallabor.blogspot.com/

they are hoping she'll win the nomination in Denver and somehow convince Barry to take veep, and think that having him there would keep the Obama supporters on board.

I have a different opinion, but hell, I predicted that McCain had no shot at the nomination this year, so what the hell do I know?

Posted by: funky chicken at August 19, 2008 08:07 PM (xyyHG)

20 Mondale is nervous about his record.

Posted by: eman at August 19, 2008 08:08 PM (qg185)

It's the Russian conflict. BHO had his moment and he failed. the people do not trust BHO to keep them safe. It is going to be harder to win that trust back. With his millions BHO is not done yet but it is now an uphill battle. If the Dem convention is a bomb than BHO may never be able to recover.

Posted by: unseen at August 19, 2008 08:32 PM (aVGmX)

22 keep the Obama supporters on board.

Is that before or after they burn Detroit and Chicago down?

Posted by: The Fat Lady at August 19, 2008 08:44 PM (6L459)

23 Welll, that was kinda my point :-0

Posted by: funky chicken at August 19, 2008 09:08 PM (xyyHG)

24 The slide started before the Georgia thing. Reagan's "silent majority" is pretty conservative compared to the average Dem nominee, and Obama is from the left side of that party. People generally wake up and start paying attention at this point in the cycle, and they're starting to see past hopey-changey.

Posted by: Eric at August 19, 2008 10:02 PM (xDwoq)

25 No matter where the polls I figure McCain is 4 to 7 points higher than they say due to the Bradley effect and that conservatives always under poll because they don't answer polls. So if the LA times has Obama up by 2 then he is really down by 5, IMHO.

Posted by: Rocks at August 19, 2008 11:06 PM (7rbe9)

26 I still don't think Hillary will accept the VP nom from somebody who is so obviously losing at this point.

I'd guess she is angling for a convention moment like Reagan in '76 to cement her as the nom next time around with an unspoken "told you so."

Oh, and Eric: I think I remember the "silent majority" as Nixon's phrase, not Reagan's. Your point, like his, is well taken though.

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