1 The most disturbing this about this is not what is happening, but what the avergae Russian thinks and says about this conflict.  Shivers, man.

2 One thing that strikes me about all this is the Russians know we could pulverize their invasion force and be home in time for lunch.

3 Also, the blog comments are full of crap from Russian apologists.  They spew their clumsy talking points and try everything they can to confuse and misdirect us.  We are not stupid, it's not working; we see through it.

What do they think we are, college professors?

4 Law school curriculums are sure getting expansive nowadays.

5 I wasn't always a law student, Mr. Snide Comments.

6 Why should Russia stop? They're going to get what they want and nobody will stop them: taking Georgia over. It worked last time, why not again?

7

"If we do nothing to help them, that is all gone."

"We" means USA, right?  What can USA do to help?  Bear in mind, Russia has the only strategic arsenal on Earth that can completely destroy the USA.  Also, overt US military action to defend Georgia would be a really hard sell to the USA electorate right now.

8 It'll be interesting to see what impact this has on the price of crude oil when the futures markets open today (6:00pm EDT).

In a normal market, based on your point #4 you'd think it would be minimal, but in the volatile market environment we're in right now, this could be a pretty wild week for commodities, the dollar and stock prices.

Thanks, Vlad.

Fucker.

9 Giving the Georgians some of our anti-aircraft and ant-armor weapons would bitch slap the Russians real hard.  The Georgians don't need to win, they just need a tie.

10 The U.S. should not be alone in a response.  NATO has an applicant nation--an ally--being pounded by a resurgence of the very force that made NATO necessary.  If NATO as an alliance does nothing collectively to stop Russia, the clock that stopped ticking in 1989 (minus a few days during the 1991 attempted Soviet coup) starts again.

I am concerned that there seem to be many people who do not realize just how important this issue is, and how much in the future will be decided by how NATO does or does not respond right now.

11 Militarily, don't know what we can do. Diplomatically, off the top of my head, fast-tracked NATO membership to Moldova (and potentially other countries) would be a nice fuck-you, just as we let Greece and Turkey in at the beginning of the Cold War to draw a line in the sand. The two problems are that this only punishes Russia, not necessarily helping Georgia, and that this assumes that our allies on the Continent aren't complete wet quivering vaginas when it comes to letting some more countries under our protective umbrella *cough* France *cough* Germany.

12

We won't do squat, because liberals here and most nations abroad will scream and yell at us and call us war mongers.

The other NATO countries taking any action at all? Don't make me laugh.

This is the future, people. The left has castrated us competely. Look for more of these situations soon. Agression will happen more and more, while our lefty government sits idle with it's limp cock in it's hand. 

13 The most disgusting spectacle is going on right now on CNN.  Wolf Blitzer is "interviewing" the Russian President live and continually interrupts and badgers him.  The man's country is being savaged by the Russians and this sucker of cock is "getting tough" on him.  What. An. Ignorant. Dick.

14 Jesus.  Proofread!

The most disgusting spectacle is going on right now on CNN.  Wolf Blitzer is "interviewing" the Georgian President live and continually interrupts and badgers him.  The man's country is being savaged by the Russians and this sucker of cock is "getting tough" on him.  What. An. Ignorant. Dick.

Sorry.

15 Oh for god's sake. Last time I use yahoo as a search engine. Try this link instead...

16 The most disturbing this about this is not what is happening, but what the avergae Russian thinks and says about this conflict.  Shivers, man.

Boy, you got that right. I participate in a history forum where Americans are the minority.The members there routinely lapse into these 200 year old ethnic conflicts and always see themselves as the victims of the west. They are truly retarded. And of course, anti-semitism is rampant.  Anyway, I think they just banned me for objecting to the tongue baths they are giving to the chicoms in the no politics olympics thread.

17 All of the former Soviet block countries should start buying American weapon systems ASAP. Most of our older stuff is designed specifically to defeat Russian armor and aircraft. They couldn't go toe to toe with the ruskies, but they could make an invasion too costly to contemplate, ala Afganistan.

18 From NRO, an odd coincidence.  Check out the plot summary

19 We never should have been so cavalier about Kosovo.  This may be payback, and it hurts us more to lose Georgia than to gain the love of Albania et al.

20

Law school curriculums are sure getting expansive nowadays.

Shame about the grammar schools though.  Curricula...

21 This conflict has demonstrated one thing that's absolutely beyond questioning:  Fox News is friggin' worthless.

22 Here's a map with the disputed areas shaded.

23 It is about Oil. Putin can't pay his patronage network of thugs who keep him in power with oil at lower prices. Therefore, he needs to kill the pipeline which brings cheaper oil and gas to Western Europe. Outside Russian control.

Putin doesn't give a dang about Ossetia or Ossetians. He cares however deeply about his ability to pay his thugs when oil trends lower. Same as Ahmadinejad and explains the Putin-Ahmadinejad alliance -- they both need high oil prices to pay their thugs. They can't produce oil at profitable margins at lower global oil prices because it would require investment that in turn would require suppressing the thug network that keeps them in power.

Their only play is to jack up the global price of oil. Probably at a price that chokes off economic activity in the US, the West, and yes, China.

This is all about oil. Global prices, and Putin's ability to pay his thugs. As a note, about a month ago Putin's thugs chased off BP's exec in their joint venture in Russia, who was asking where the billions of investment money went (answer: Putin's thugs). Coincidentally, BP is a major investor in the Georgian pipeline.

Russia HAS to crush and occupy Georgia, to keep that pipeline from ever being rebuilt.

24 ailas mr. pt. you have accomplished what was intended all along, the old guard is alive and well. It would be interesting to view the military hardware in use with russia,T-80s? bmp-2 , mi-24s , or go all out with t-90s bmp3-4s mi28 havocks (for the more determined tactics) .........much too obvious? apparently not

25 NATO membership application forms are available (.pdf) at saveyourasswhileyoustillcan.org.

26

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at August 10, 2008 11:56 AM (1Ug6U)

Were you always an expert on Ossetia?

27

Frankly, I think it's amazing how they're crawling out of the woodwork nowadays. We're blessed.

Of course, if I didn't know any better I might think people were talking out of their ass based on a five-minute cursory background investigation, general antipathy to Russia, and first-call MSM (you remember them?) reports.

 

28

Just suggesting some modesty might be in order.

29 Can't we all just get along? (But even I think the Russian trolls are assholes.)

30 My antipathy to Russia is bone deep rather than general, but the ass-centric nature of my opinions are well documented, especially at this remove.

31 is well documented

I blame our poor public education for that

32

Me too, toby.

Out with the grammar, in with Toni Morrison and Maya Angelou.

33 <i>Their only play is to jack up the global price of oil. Probably at a price that chokes off economic activity in the US, the West, and yes, China.</i>

that would be one issue.  I would also note that the oil in the Caspian sea and who gets to claim it where, based on national water boundaries, as well as the ability to take it out of the area, based on pipelines, rail heads (the major transportation method for the region) and other methods, has been in dispute for some time.  It is one of the reasons that the Russians have been dealing with the Iranians.  They have in mind a nominal ally to protect their interests in the Caspian region. 

Thus, it isn't all about that one little pipeline (though it transports a million/bpd).  Widen your map a bit and take a good look at the region. 

One of Russia's major issues, and reflective of Ukraine's insistence on Russian ships not coming back, has been access to the Black Sea for import and export of goods that include everything that Russia needs from the outside world and everything that it could sell.  Abkhazia, in the top left hand corner of Georgia, represents a widening corridor for Russian control of the black sea ports and the ability to threaten other ports, including the Ukraine, with expanded Naval presence. 

The issue with the Caspian reserves and the transportation routes is the reason that Russia refuses to let chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan have any independence.  They represent the main corridor through which Russia transports natural gas and oil.  Again, major railheads, particularly through Grozny (chechnya).  but, you might get that the area is unstable and Russia has to spend a lot of time and money protecting it. 

There are many things at play here.  either to assert some control over the other product going in and out, or having a more secure area to transport their own goods out of, or to secure their resources out of the Caspian (Georgia cowed would put serious pressure on Azerbiajan).  take you pick.

Historically, Russia, whether under a Czar, a communist Premier or a Prime Minister, has always been trying to gain and control access to the Black Sea.  Read Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, Alexander I with Napolean, Nicholas I and the Crimean War, Nicholas II in WWI.  History is your friend and it still matters today, hundreds of years later.  Particularly, since the geographic reality of Russia has not changed and neither has its desire to be a global player. 

34 kat-missouri,

Nicely done.

35 The Russians held military exercises at the same time we did. Our Marines left Georgia. The Russians stayed in place. Explains the very rapid response and invasion.

The Russians appear to intend to reduce Georgia to a vassal state. At this point, neither NATO nor the UN has the spine to apply pressure. The Ukraine could help but has no reason to with the war all but lost.

Right now the Georgians feel a little bit like the Republic of China, I suspect.

36 kat-missouri pretty much nails it. Russian history revolves around their need for warm-water ports.

I guess they don't put much faith in the Goracle's predictions of an ice-free Arctic.

37

This is an engineered invasion by Russia under the excuse of protecting South Ossetia/Russian citizens. This is a classic causa belli to protect Russian citizens by allowing S. Ossetian's and Abkazia's to get Russian passports.

 

Russia has been fomenting trouble ever since the BZC pipeline was approved and construction started This pipeline allows oil and gas to flow from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. They bombed the oil terminal and the oil tankers and the shipbuilding facilities in Poti, the seaport on the Black Sea. Russian has bombed the pumping facilities of the BZC pipeline in this attack.

 

Turkey had an attack by Turkish PPK Kurds on the BZC pipeline in Ezbrium on Aug 6^th, 2008. It damaged a valve and over 12,000 bbl has been lost and the pressure has run down from the pump in Baku. This pipeline was activated on 2006 and Russia has been causing increased problems from 2006 in Georgia. The pipeline is supposed to get to full commercial production in 2009. This is a total end run around Russia monopoly on Europe gas and oil pipelines.

 

 

Russia has been playing at economic oil warfare for several years. Turkmenistan had a change in leadership and then went from selling to Western oil companies to giving the contracts to Gazprom the Russian company.  Medevev just got the Libya oil contracts.

 

Russia has been going after oil in the Arctic and claiming territory there now that the Artic Ocean is opening near Russia.

 

Russian also has the original imperialistic ambitions to reclaim the Republics it lost in 1991. Notice that they now claim that Ukraine has helped Georgia by selling weapons. Russia tried to get their puppets installed in Ukraine and Georgia elections and lost both times.

 

This is an opportunity to get Georgia back under Russian control. Next will be the Ukraine.  S. Ossetia may have initiated this conflict by artillery against Georgian villages knowing that Russia had built up the military presence with over 150 tanks on the other side of the Roki Tunnel. Somewhat like little brother taking on his enemy with big brother standing behind him.

 

S. Ossetia is the excuse it has no value, but Georgia pipeline does, plus it stops a Western ally on Russia’s flank. Russian control over this area allows direct route to Turkey and control of the straights.

 

Do you think an Obama administration will do anything about Russia taking Georgia, Ukraine and then Turkey? NATO is a paper kitten and has no strength other than America.

 

Georgia thought this may be they best time with Bush still in power to stir things up. They obviously hope to take S Ossetia fast and get control of the Roki Tunnel in the Georgian side to prevent Russian armor. They were not fast enough.

38 Our trainers didn't all leave, but a major group did.  So, we knew something was going down and we couldn't stop it.  I figured we weren't just sitting around, twiddling our thumbs, but likely we were stuck between a rock and a hard place. 

I would also add that falling oil prices last week may have had something to do with the timing.  Russia's economy is a one trick pony right now.  Unstable energy prices put them on the economic defensive. 

1 million bpd off the market is a nice plus for them, don't you think?

39 I think the term "Georgian insurgents" will soon be a common item in news reports.

40 The Ossetians and Georgians are ethnically distinct, as are Abkhazians.

That makes no sense. Georgia has been pretty stable in its borders for almost 2000 years.

41 I was going to say NATO sucks. But let me defer to Log Cabin at #12. Yes there's hundreds of years of Russian power playing involved here, as per Kat-Missouri and don't forget to add to the total payback that is the damned stupid Clinton/Bush decision to screw the Serbs on Kosovo , which gave the Russians the excuse of ''preventing ethnic cleansing''. This also sucks.

42 People of the world, the information, provided by the international mass media is no true. Russia DID NOT ATTACK Georgia! 07.08.2008 at 22:00 Georgia attacked South Ossetia, the troops rolled in. At 3:30 08.08.2008 tanks of the Georgian armies have entered the city of Tskhinvali, the capital of the South Ossetian Republic. Whole city was shelling by heavy artillery all day long, there were fights with use of tanks and heavy munition, which were used against both ossetic militia and non-combatants. More than 2000 civillians were killed during Georgian attack. Russian peacemakers have arrived to South Ossetia in the evening of 08.08.2008 for settlement of the conflict and peace conduction in republic and protection of Russian citizens, living on territory of South Ossetia (approx. 80% of South Ossetian population). Georgia has attacked South Ossetia on the opening day of 2008 Olympiad, it is top of cruelty and cynicism.

http://russianossetia.wordpress.com

http://war.georgia.su

43 Piss off, Ivan.

44 Russia DID NOT ATTACK Georgia!

Other than when they bombed Georgia and invaded today, you mean? South Ossetia is part of Georgia, not Russia. Russia is trying to rebuild its empire at the expense of Georgian lives because the president wouldn't obey Putin's totalitarian commands.

45 Neither USA nor NATO have to do any violence movement against Russia. Only thing that they have to do is to block the bank's accounts of Russian's  goverment's leaders and claim them persons non grate in the west . It will stops Russian troops much more effective than any weapons.

46 Frankly, putting a wing of F15's square on the tarmac in Tblisi would put some ice on this conflict .... a few flights to confirm a no fly zone to keep the Russians honest would have a chilling effect. To shoot at an American would be a great deal more dangerous than to shoot at a Georgian. If a russian pilot was so stupid to take a shot at the US planes, it could be shot down in self defence.  Thoughts? After this is over, the Georgian president should be taken out to the woodshed for a good wooping.

47

 

All this USA taxpayers money poured into Georgian military build up. All this military expert flown back and forth to train Georgians. All those military tools given for free. All goes down the drain. That money could be used to save thousand sucker losing thier house weekly. Oh those dumned rysski.

Ivan

 

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