Russia Invades Georgia

Low-level violence has been the norm between Russia and its former republic Georgia since Georgia declared independence in 1991. But this may be something different.

Georgian and Russian forces have come into direct conflict as Georgia attempts to reassert control over South Ossetia. Russian tanks as well as "volunteers" are entering the breakaway region, ostensibly to prevent violence. In fact, their goal is to maintain and encourage South Ossetia's de facto independence from Georgia.

An Italian news agency is reporting that a Georgian military base near the capital of Tblisi has come under air attack.

More: Part of Russia's problem with Georgia has been its increasingly pro-Western government. After 2003's Rose Revolution, Georgia's new president, Mikheil Saakashvili launched a program of reform with the ultimate goal of joining NATO. Georgia has been an ally of the U.S. in the War on Terror. At the height of its participation, it sent 2000 U.S.-trained troops to Iraq, making it one of the top contributors to our war effort. Our trainers and contractors in Georgia are reported to be safe and out of the conflict.

If you're wondering why I care so much, it's unknown right now whether this conflict represents a mere escalation of the conflict over South Ossetia or whether Putin (through Medvedev) intends to re-take Georgia with more former republics to follow. Whatever the case, Russia bears watching.

About South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Both breakaway regions declared independence in the early 1990s. That independence was not recognized by any nations, including Russia, but Russia has helped the regions maintain de facto independence from Tblisi by placing peacekeepers in both regions. Part of the reason Georgia moved on South Ossetia this week is because someone in the region has been shelling Georgian civilians.

So the question must be asked: is Kosovo going to come back and bite us? It depends on just what precedent you think Kosovo set.

Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in February and was immediately recognized by the U.S. and several other countries. (It has not been recognized by Russia or the UN, however.) Prior to that declaration, Serbia had lost all control of the region and international peacekeepers were keeping Serbia from retaking it. Superficially, the situation in South Ossetia (and Abkhazia) look similar. However, there were several characteristics to Kosovo's independence that are not present in Georgia.

First, the whole of Kosovo was placed under international supervision following the wars in the late 1990s. The UN, through NATO, had ultimate administrative and military control. There was no analogue to this in South Ossetia. Georgia has always been able to exert at-will military control over South Ossetia. And though the Russian "peacekeepers" have kept Georgia from maintaining administrative governance, neither has an international group been responsible for administrative governance.

Second, after it was made de facto autonomous Kosovo developed a robust democratic government. No such government exists in South Ossetia. Instead, two governments (aside from Georgia, I mean) claim to represent the region: Ossetian separatists and a "Provisional Administration" which has Georgian support.

Third, Kosovar independence was achieved without military action. Actually, the fact that Kosovo was able to declare independence without going to war with Serbia is evidence of just how complete its de facto independence was. South Ossetia has no such claim. And it is noteworthy that although Ossetian separatists are fighting the Georgians, Russia is the real power keeping Georgia out.

Make no mistake. This is not a freedom movement for South Ossetia. And if Russia wins, South Ossetia will not be an independent and free country. It will be a part of expansionist Russia.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 11:49 AM

Comments

1 WTF? They cannot invate Georgia! Why, my cousin Billy Bob lives just outside Atlanta. He ain't gonna let this happen. He and his buddies, all totin 12 guage shotguns, and kegs of beer, will drive them Russkies away!

Posted by: Tushar at August 08, 2008 11:56 AM (IlgNp)

2 Well this can't be good...

Posted by: ECM at August 08, 2008 11:57 AM (q3V+C)

3 Seriously, Putin apparently really really misses the Cold War, or is sad that it never turned into a hot war between the USSR and the US.

Posted by: Ryan Frank at August 08, 2008 12:07 PM (Y3FM2)

4 Given this turn of events, the choice for President has never been more clear or urgent.

I'm tanned, rested and ready to go!

Posted by: Zombie Reagan '08, Kicking Ruskie Ass Since 1980! at August 08, 2008 12:11 PM (hlYel)

5 Georgia is going back behind the curtain.

Posted by: Potosi Joel at August 08, 2008 12:15 PM (TPRbZ)

See--I told you those Caucasians would be killing Georgians one day! As you can hear on my new DVD, Whitey Is A Coming. Only $24.95, including receipt for income tax purposes. Buy now before WW3 starts.

Posted by: The Right Reverend Reverend Wright at August 08, 2008 12:17 PM (OuMcZ)

7 This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.

Posted by: Admiral Josh Hussein Painter at August 08, 2008 12:24 PM (evdj2)

8 I'm annoyed that both McCain and Obama have given advice to the Russians about what to do. One of them will be President* but neither of them are now. Bush and Putin are in the same city - they can chat easily enough.

*I'm still not convinced Hillary isn't going to try and pull a fast one at the convention.

Posted by: Arthur at August 08, 2008 12:26 PM (px5pH)

Russians...Kosovo

Umm, has somebody got Wes Clark on a short leash?

Posted by: railwriter at August 08, 2008 12:30 PM (nwEiU)

10 If this is an attempt to reintegrate Georgia under Russian hegemony, then we WILL have to go to war, as Georgia is an increasingly close and quite stalwart ally. But if we do go to war with Russia, then it will drive them to form alliances with whomever they can; Iran, North Korea, China... A Sino-Russian alliance may in fact accelerate China's challenge to the West, which could provoke a Third World War, under the worse case scenario (and we certainly aren't there yet).

Posted by: David Marcoe at August 08, 2008 12:34 PM (8xsAw)

Russians...Kosovo

Umm, has somebody got Wes Clark on a short leash?

Both this and Kosovo are examples of large powers (Russia and US/NATO respectively) helping little regions (S. Ossetia and Kosovo) break away from the country they were a part of (Serbia and Georgia).

We were on the "break away" side in Kosovo.

Posted by: pbrown at August 08, 2008 12:39 PM (vxGjP)

12 We were on the "break away" side in Kosovo.

After Milosevic's attempt at systematic ethnic cleansing...

Posted by: David Marcoe at August 08, 2008 12:42 PM (8xsAw)

13 Although, truth be told, it probably wasn't so smart of us to get involved, as it set a bad precedent. However, we weren't attempting to support a breakaway, merely trying to stop the ethnic cleansing. It was only when they broke away on their own that we chose to recognize them.

Posted by: David Marcoe at August 08, 2008 12:44 PM (8xsAw)

On one side we have Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili holding an oscillating wind turbine�on the other we have Puttin standing with a rather large bag of poo.

Posted by: Paladin at August 08, 2008 12:48 PM (2X4q0)

Can the Georgans take the Russians on their own?

Posted by: jones at August 08, 2008 12:55 PM (BXWCc)

16 Hey, isn't this sort of thing against international law?

I'm sure the UN and other multi-national institutions will be springing into action. My guess is ANSWER will be organizing protests around the world this weekend, next at the latest.

Posted by: DrewM. at August 08, 2008 12:58 PM (hlYel)

james wolcott over at VF will call this justified resistance to Bush's attempts to assert hegemony.

Posted by: ejo at August 08, 2008 01:05 PM (Urhve)

Can the Georgans take the Russians on their own?

Can Taiwan take China? Can Iran take Israel�speaking of which. Now would be a great time for IDF to do a live fire exercise�

Posted by: Paladin at August 08, 2008 01:09 PM (2X4q0)

19 12: unfortuantely, there was plenty of that on both sides...

Posted by: ECM at August 08, 2008 01:18 PM (q3V+C)

20 Oh great, I'm at work and thus can't have the best reaction, namely to drink myself into oblivion.

Posted by: alexthechick at August 08, 2008 01:32 PM (SHHaV)

Ah, the Caucasus. Like the Balkans, but stupider.

Looking at a map of the Caucasus, Abkhazia is the far northern corner of Georgia and is indefensible from Tblisi. Also, they speak one of those funny uncategorisable Caucasian languages, which isn't even related to Georgian. Georgia should have given them independence when it declared independence, and then maybe signed a mutual defense pact with it and also with Armenia. It seems to be stupidity on Georgia's part to keep Abkhazia.

Ossetia, now, is another matter. They're one of those weird Indo-European throwbacks, the only surviving western Iranian group (a bit like how Armenian is the only surviving descendent of pre-Mycenaean-Greek other than Greek itself). South Ossetia is well within Georgia proper.

You are right that the South Ossetians are not looking for liberty; they're looking for long-term survival with the Russians as protectors.

Posted by: David Ross at August 08, 2008 01:35 PM (GwV+j)

22 Correct me if I am wrong, but does not Georgia possess nuclear weapons? At what point would they use them? Perhaps an emergency admission to NATO would be in order, then we would have to support them, and it might make Russia think twice.

Posted by: BTM at August 08, 2008 01:55 PM (pS9Zv)

23 Well it's not the first time that the Soviets, err I mean Russians, have funded proxy insurgencies. Which is the reason Mussolini and fellow fascists were anti-communist despite nearly identical ideologies. Which is one of the lame excuses provided in poli-sci courses for putting fascists on the right side of the political spectrum. Which provides every half-wit leftist pseudo-credibility when....

oops, sorry just had an argument with my dem. brother-in-law. Anyways, surprised if no-one's mentioned it yet, but I think the Duke boys can take those nasty ruskies and Boss Hawg with one hand tied behind their back.

Posted by: Jame_Retief at August 08, 2008 02:07 PM (jkuwe)

I believe either US or NATO took the nukes off their hands. They are probably regretting that decision right about now.

They were real close to getting into NATO, could be why Russia is moving now. To prevent that from happening.

You got a better chance of France coming to their aid, than getting NATO to cancel there weekend plans and do something. Maybe the British doing something �softly-softly��I�m afraid they are screwed-blued-&-tattooed.

Posted by: Paladin at August 08, 2008 02:10 PM (AfORa)

25 Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia's "independence" movements are a joke. 90% of Ossetians have taken Russian passports. It's annexation under another name.

By controlling Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russians can influence a major pipeline which runs oil across Turkey. (This is the preferred pipeline because it avoids oil tankers going through the Bosporus Straits.)

I'm not sure how we support Georgia, which has been a good ally, without getting ourselves in a heap of trouble we don't want, but we should do SOMETHING.

Posted by: dkshideler at August 08, 2008 02:27 PM (6nU4H)

26 Any way we could lend them some air support without drawing to much attention to it?

Posted by: Ryan Frank at August 08, 2008 02:34 PM (hX2rY)

27 Here's an exciting tidbit.
> Yakobashvili said that one Russian plane had dropped a bomb on the Vaziani military base near the Georgian capital, but no one was hurt.

More than 1,000 U.S. Marines and soldiers were at the base last month to teach combat skills to Georgian troops. Georgia has about 2,000 troops in Iraq, making it the third-largest contributor to coalition forces after the U.S. and Britain.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080808/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_south_ossetia

We've got lots of troops in Georgia. what could possibly go worng?

Posted by: Arthur at August 08, 2008 03:22 PM (px5pH)

28 WOW! You mean some world leaders don't give a crap about talking and just resort to blowing stuff up? Quick someone tell Barack!

20 years later, there is still a bear in t he woods.

Posted by: liontooth at August 08, 2008 03:52 PM (n3pxb)

29 No, Georgia doesn't possess nuclear weapons, nor have they ever. It wasn't one of the former Soviet satellites which did.

Posted by: Infidelsalwayswin at August 08, 2008 04:13 PM (grY4M)

30 >>we were on the break-away side<<

right, got that (albeit late to the game). I was referring indirectly to Wes "Tantrum" Clark's near-disastrous showdown with the Russians at the Kosovo airport...

Posted by: railwriter at August 08, 2008 04:42 PM (XcsD4)

If this is an attempt to reintegrate Georgia under Russian hegemony, then we WILL have to go to war, as Georgia is an increasingly close and quite stalwart ally.

Umm, yeah. Right. As soon as we've got another couple million troops and the burning need to fight a war with Russia.

Posted by: MlR at August 08, 2008 07:02 PM (PLmsY)

32 if you war mongers think we can wipe out russia,,,, you better think again..... we don't have that many friends anymore ...! thanks to our republic .... who ever heard a democratic nation run by a republic ? better think hard ,,, 'ol redneck buddy ... !

Posted by: polishprinz at August 09, 2008 05:29 PM (k8rIq)

Well its all pretty obvious whats happening, I think pretty much everyone knew that Putin wanted to go back to the former so called 'glory' of the soviet union and this new guy Medvedev is no better.

Point being is that Russia is using this whole Kosovo philosophy to just turn south ossetia into a protectorate. The west is going to have to step in here and show the Russians not to mess with the already fragile state of its former satelite states. Because if they dont then its only going to get worse and worse from here on out (think China, North Korea, Iran...good mates?) (Who said wipe out Russia? lol in a perfect world maybe but this is far from perfect)

And in response to this polishprinz fellow, the US does NOT stand alone of course the rest of the world says it but when push comes to shove the west knows who to follow

Posted by: JoelAustraliaHatesCommies at August 10, 2008 07:51 AM (wV0Mg)

34 Two hours ago i called my friends and relatives in Rep. of Georgia, Tbilisi. They told me that russian troops are entering Tbilisi and everyone is packing and running away from their houses. Russian troops are killing everyone on their way!

Posted by: Eteri at August 11, 2008 05:15 PM (vxjkq)

35 I just wanted to say that to everyone that says thats against international law,they are right but did the U.S ever get permission to enter iraq.they were denied and so was russia.There is no rules of war...its about living or dieing.thats about it.

Posted by: Seth at August 12, 2008 01:25 AM (hII8b)

36 The invasion of Georgia by Russia has been in prophecy for 2500 years. It is written in Ezekiel 38 and started with Chechnya in the 1990's. Read also Ezek 39. God put HOOKS (Hebrew word CHECHIM) in to the Russian Bear jaw (Daniel 7:5 and Rev 13:2) and pulled GOG (Putin) down to Chechnya. The word for CHIEF in Hebrew is ROSH. Magog, Tubal and Meshech are all children of Japeth, son of Noah and settled that area after the flood. Tubal is Tublisi, Georgia and Meshech is Moscow, Russia. What you have to know is that this war is only the beginning of much worse things to come. The two wars with Iraq are also the work of God and are written in Jeremiah 50 and 51. God called the nations in Jer 50:9 and Jer 51:25-28. The invasion of Kuwait is Jeremiah 49:28-33, with the United Nations setting sanctions against Iraq with one of them #666 not to buy or sell anything with Iraq (Babylon), Revelation 13:17-18. Just keep watching the events and compare them with scripture and you will see prophecy coming to past before your eyes.

Posted by: Ken S at August 17, 2008 08:27 AM (/1pCj)

Russia has no friends

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