On That New Rasmussen Poll: Don't Get Cocky

Today Rasmussen has Obama and McCain at a statistical dead heat. Many commentators are making noise about McCain's slight, statistically insignificant 47%-46% lead when "leaners" are included, which is the first time Rasmussen has had him ahead since Obama won the Democratic nomination.

I don't think it's anything to crow about. The one-point lead is not a meaningful description of the real world. That's what "statistically insignificant" means. The fact that Obama has lost his nine point lead in such a short period if time, however, is noteworthy. Obama has been parading around the world and pretending to be presidential while ignoring serious issues of domestic policy. "Unaffiliated voters", which I expect actually includes a lot of disgruntled Republicans and former Republicans, seem to have been key:

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

It's not that they're suddenly ardent supporters of John McCain. Rather, they are getting a taste of just how unimpressive and potentially disastrous a Barack Obama presidency will be.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 12:48 PM



Comments

1 Keeping in mind that Obama tends to do better in polls than he does on election day.

Posted by: Benson at August 04, 2008 12:53 PM (qzcNU)

2 "It's not that they're suddenly ardent supporters of John McCain. Rather, they are getting a taste of just how unimpressive and potentially disastrous a Barack Obama presidency will be."

As time goes on, that becomes increasingly evident. Keep Hope (without Change) alive!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at August 04, 2008 12:54 PM (zpaDL)

3 It's not that they're suddenly ardent supporters of John McCain.
Rather, they are getting a taste of just how unimpressive and
potentially disastrous a Barack Obama presidency will be.

Yup. Thank you MSM for slavishly covering your candidate's little global photo-op like the retard anti-helpers you are so the rest of 'merikka could see what a preening jackass he is.

Posted by: runninrebel at August 04, 2008 12:56 PM (0n9wc)

4 The fact that Obama has lost his nine point lead in such a short period if time, however, is noteworthy.
Thank you Captain Obvious.

Posted by: toby hussein 928 at August 04, 2008 01:00 PM (evdj2)

5 *sniff* the actual nomination hasnt happened yet, theres still a chance Hill can pull this off...

This has been an odd contest-can Barack and his blackness scare me enough to overcome my distaste for McCain? Can Barak convince me he would truly be a far worse president? So far hes been doing a bang up job of it.

And on a side note which, which fraking ace site are we supposed to use? Laura begged us to use the new site, but the contiunal headline posts (despite the lack of headlines on the new site) and non loading images are driving me back here.

Posted by: HowardDevore at August 04, 2008 01:01 PM (/MmhG)

6 I still maintain that a 1 point R lead in newspaper polls is a 5 point lead in the polls that matter. The MSM loves to over-represent D's when they do their polls.

Posted by: The Atom Bomb of Loving Kindness at August 04, 2008 01:06 PM (0FHr8)

7 It's not that they're suddenly ardent supporters of John McCain.
Rather, they are getting a taste of just how unimpressive and
potentially disastrous a Barack Obama presidency will be.

This is how I feel. I finally realized my support for McCain is directly proportional to how much I see or hear Obama. It's also inversely proportional to how much I see or hear McCain.

If McCain disappeared between now and the election, I'd be so far in the tank for McCain it wouldn't be funny. Of course he won't so I will be riding this roller coaster depending on who I hear last. Ugh.

Posted by: DrewM. at August 04, 2008 01:06 PM (hlYel)

8 Posted by: HowardDevore at August 04, 2008 01:01 PM (/MmhG)
Hussein would be a much worse president, of course. But, do you want to live your life knowing you voted to destroy the sovereignty of this country with the leading pro-amensty senator? He has other faults as well.
To me, I will only vote for a candidate. If it is LOTE, I thinkI would vote for satan and know that most of the Repubs and all the bluedog Dems would oppose him. Yeah, that's comforting: the stupids against the traitors.

Posted by: TomJW at August 04, 2008 01:09 PM (xRCpL)

9 Somebody better tell Cokie Roberts to call her office. This "analysis" she gave on NPR this morning pretty much boils down to "McCain is doomed,as areall other Republicans." I was impressedat howshe kept her radio voice steady while jumping up and down waving those Obama pom-poms, though.
This woman has taken shilling into new realms of artistry. I hope NPR enjoysletting her burn their brand to the waterline.

Posted by: sherlock at August 04, 2008 01:11 PM (FsbnY)

10
I don't think it's anything to crow about.

Au contraire, Gabe -- it's earth shaking.

Nyuck, nyuck, nyuck.

Posted by: Tinian at August 04, 2008 01:17 PM (1Mq7K)

11 For a guy who needs to be up 15 points at this point in time, its pretty grim.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 04, 2008 01:18 PM (SLqkZ)

12 The purple avenger nailed it. Even Dukakis was doing better at this point in his campaign. With all the MSM shilling for Obama, the fact that he's not up double digits means he's in a big hole. Throw in the Bradley Effect and McCain will have to screw up big time to lose. Of course, he's done it before so he's not out of the woods yet.

Posted by: Patrick H at August 04, 2008 01:26 PM (nbVpI)

13 "It's not that they're suddenly ardent supporters of John McCain.
Rather, they are getting a taste of just how unimpressive and
potentially disastrous a Barack Obama presidency will be."

That is really a distinction without a difference. Just as Government's lose elections rather than the Opposition wins elections, so candidates usually lose rather than win individual races. People don't have to fall in love with McCain ; they just have to fall out of love with Obama.

And they clearly are. Only ideologues feel that they have to be enamored of their choices. In the real world it is more than adequate that the voters just won't vote for the alternative.

Posted by: dougf at August 04, 2008 01:29 PM (16GPT)

14 This is how I feel. I finally realized my support for McCain is
directly proportional to how much I see or hear Obama. It's also
inversely proportional to how much I see or hear McCain.

Couldn't have said it better. Here's how I'd sum it up in bumper stickers for the short-attention-span libs:

McCain '08: Sure He Pisses Us Off, But He's Not a Marxist
Obama '08: The Bolshevik Revolution; Change We've Seen Before

Posted by: Andy at August 04, 2008 02:04 PM (23Gys)

15 One strategic blunder that folks aren't really talking about:

Obama's attempt to tie McCain to Bush. The obvious problem has already been alluded to - he's not Bush.

The other problem not mentioned as of yet - Bush is leaving. But the democratic congress will be around if Obama takes office.

Trying to convince voters that a candidate's policies are sure to follow the incumbent ruling entity's policies as a matter of course isn't the smartest thing to do when YOUR ruling entity, which will be in power and influence the outcome of future events, has the lowest job approval rating in history.

The drilling issue is the pointy end of that spear.

Posted by: biff at August 04, 2008 02:07 PM (dQ7i0)

16 "THE OIL WEAPON" Use it McMuffin!!!!! Early and often.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at August 04, 2008 02:23 PM (zpaDL)

17 I don't think it's anything to crow about.
Are you sure you know where you're posting?
It seems to me that close to half the people here hate McCain almost as much as he hates conservatives so anything bad that happens to McCain has about the same chance of being crowed about.

Posted by: Veeshir at August 04, 2008 02:28 PM (zXUuJ)

18 This has been an odd contest-can Barack and his blackness scare me enough to overcome my distaste for McCain?

WTF?

Posted by: Che Pizza at August 04, 2008 03:26 PM (SPSOE)

19 Polls, schmolls.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 04, 2008 03:37 PM (0+Ggj)

20 Its pretty simple really
McCain: Offshore drilling OK.
Obama: Check you tire pressure.
What more do you need to know?

Posted by: Lemmiwinks at August 04, 2008 04:04 PM (CiVat)

21 I'm still not voting for McCain.
But...
If Obama keeps on talking like he owns this country, I may vote for the person most likely to beat him just to watch Obama choke on all that Clintonian smugness The Day After.

Posted by: Barbelle at August 04, 2008 09:38 PM (qF8q3)






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