Rasmussen: McCain Up By 8 in Florida; No Damage, It Seems, From Offshore Drilling Position

Hm.

Which suggests a possibility, which will not happen, but what the hell:

If Florida will go along with offshore drilling, then there's no remaining political barrier to McCain simply calling for offshore drilling, period, determined by the federal government (as is always the case), no state-by-state determination.

The big two objectors here were Florida and California -- McCain needs Florida, but can't win California. So it hurts him not at all to move in the coming months to a more aggressive posture and simply urge more drilling, whether California wants it or not.

Pissing off Californians, whose electoral votes he won't get, might ingratiate him with Michaganders or Ohioans, whose votes he might.

So, in a fantasy world where McCain actually advocates the right position in terms of both policy and politics, who knows, maybe, in this Bizarro World, he'd slowly roll out a more powerful pro-drilling position.

In the real world, he'll continue running on Iraq, which due to the recent success, might actually not even be an issue in November and could, actually, stand on its own reasonably well by then,* and cutting pork, which is a good-government sort of issue, and goo-goo issues have never, in the entire history of politics in the whole of the known universe, won a single election.

* As the surge succeeds and violence ebbs and normalcy takes hold, Obama's reckless "let's try to lose this as soon as possible" position becomes less reckless. He might be presented with a fait accompli in November in which, actually, he can't lose Iraq anymore, no matter how much he tries, absent re-invading it on behalf of Al Qaeda and Iran.

So, perversely, as Bush and McCain are more proven right, Obama's position becomes more wrong, but also more irrelevant. As Iraq is truly, finally won, the difference between Obama's position and Petraeus' position might narrow quite a bit. We could see Obama arguing "withdraw now," and Petraeus saying "Well, we won the fucking war, so we can prudently withdraw most troops within 3-6 months" -- which is a difference, to be sure, but probably not enough of one to change votes either way.

In short, as victory comes, the difference who say "withdraw after victory" and those who say "withdraw now" narrows. When full and final victory is at hand, "withdraw after victory" becomes "withdraw now."

The pro-surge, pro-victory coalition will have been proven right -- but the public doesn't seem to give a shit, and besides, they're not going to vote against Obama for being on the wrong side of a now-mooted issue.

So, as I keep saying, it would be kinda-sorta helpful to McCain to have a couple of issues where he's on the right side of politics and policy, and which actually might animate voters.

He is behaving as if it's just not "sporting" to take a position opposite your opponent when your opponent is locked in to an godawful position. After all, wouldn't that be taking unfair advantage of an opponent's weakness?


thanks to Gabe.

Posted by: Ace at 04:43 PM



Comments

1 But...but...then he wouldn't be a maverick!!

Posted by: Ken Begg at June 19, 2008 04:47 PM (VVf4R)

2 It would also ingratiate him with people up here in Maine.

If oil prices don't drop, Mainers face a pretty good double-whammy of paying high gas and high heating oil prices. This state has elected two independent governors, so voters tend to like the whole Mavericky thing. McCain could really make inroads with western, central and northern Maine (southern Maine is basically Massachusetts) and possibly win the state or at least one of its electoral votes.

Posted by: Slublog at June 19, 2008 04:50 PM (R8+nJ)

3 which is a good-government sort of issue, and goo-goo issues have never, in the entire history of politics in the whole of the known universe, won a single election.
Yeah goo-goo talk always give pundits the warm fuzzies, and the public will even lie to pollsters and say they care, but they don't. No cadidate has ever gotten elected based on goo-goo issues.

Posted by: Maetenloch at June 19, 2008 05:01 PM (CA825)

4 I live in Tampa and everyone I know is pro-drill in the gulf. Outside of the Greenpeace euro-weenie types everyone wants more drilling to lower the cost of gas. I hope McCain gets the message.

Posted by: Ken at June 19, 2008 05:03 PM (uyw4P)

5 We drag this horse kicking and screaming to the water, kick him in the nuts, and dunk his face in water, but he still won't drink the fcuking water.

Posted by: Tushar at June 19, 2008 05:09 PM (IlgNp)

6 Give Kalifornian's another $2-$ 3gallon gas hike and it will thin out the Enviro-weenie herd considerably. Especially when you consider the drilling will not occur along the entire coastline. Hell, they've got so much oil off the coast up north, it bubbles to the surface naturally. What? "Nature" pollutes?

Arnie won't stand in the way. He wants to be a Senator so that he can cement his bona fides with the Kennedy Clan.

Posted by: GarandFan at June 19, 2008 05:11 PM (eJ32B)

7 So, in a fantasy world where McCain actually advocates the right
position in terms of both policy and politics, who knows, maybe, in
this Bizarro World, he'd slowly roll out a more powerful pro-drilling
position.

Be quiet, Bizarro-Ace.

Posted by: Timothy Watson at June 19, 2008 05:12 PM (nyLnk)

8 So, in a fantasy world where McCain actually advocates the right position

Yeah, that'll happen.

Posted by: DelD at June 19, 2008 05:13 PM (jt9I3)

9 We might be on the brink of breaking the greens, after all these years. We have the chance now, and ironically it is because they got their wish... expensive gas.

Posted by: Gary at June 19, 2008 05:14 PM (ZZOa6)

10 Now that my Barack has the great Gore obeying him <strong>NOTHING CAN STOP US! WELL END ALL THE CORPORATIONS AND FACISM!!!!!!</strong>
Today I got my new flag for 7/4. <strong>IT HAS 19 STARS!!!!!!!!</strong> One for the<strong> REAL</strong> states, the blue states. No facist *spit* red state *spit* will be in MY country!
I also got 1,000 UN flags on little sticks to plant to counteract the facist *spit* stars and stripes that you nazis leave around.

Posted by: KayInMaine at June 19, 2008 05:16 PM (iL30X)

11 I hate to be a spoilsport but your new page has only been up for a day and the right hand side bar is already messed up. all the ads over run the border by about 10 pixels.

Posted by: chad at June 19, 2008 05:19 PM (lNQg8)

12 That's wonderful that Floridians seem to be coming around i compliment them on their good sense.

Keep in mind, though, that's there's a congressional moratorium that has to be lifted. This has to get through congress, so legislators will still probably have to bribed to vote the right way with extra royalties for the coastal states.

Posted by: stace at June 19, 2008 05:25 PM (JO0c/)

13

Here in California,
a couple of days ago Schwarzenegger came out opposed to any drilling.
Yet, California
uses more gas than any other state.



Worse, he recently caught justified heat for flying from Sacramento
to his home in Los Angeles on his private jet
every Friday, then back again to Sacramento
on Sunday night or Monday.



What total hypocrisy! The message is
clear: Screw you little people. What a flaming asshole!



I doubt that Gray Davis would be that freaking stupid. California
voters, including myself, made a big mistake with Schwarzenegger, and we’re
going to pay for it for a long time.

Posted by: GaryS at June 19, 2008 05:26 PM (iBizo)

14 Although Rasmussen is probably the most reliable, as a whole, polls are not at all reliable. Just this morning, I saw a poll on one of the cable news channels that had Obama up by 6 in Florida.
So here's a novel idea. Just show up and cast your vote, for your own reasons, and screw the polls.

Posted by: tomk59 at June 19, 2008 05:27 PM (iHSs0)

15 "Keep in mind, though, that's there's a congressional moratorium that has to be lifted."

Two things politicans do on a regular basis:
1) Have their hand out for money
2) Have their forefinger up to guage the wind

Posted by: GarandFan at June 19, 2008 05:27 PM (eJ32B)

16 Gary, How do you see the Greens breaking?

Posted by: Robert at June 19, 2008 05:29 PM (V+ylD)

17 Even though it's federal territory, the states will probably hold out for royalties. States get royalties for production in federal waters, and I have no idea why.

Anoher weird thing: I don't know how this came about, but TX and LA control mineral rights out to nine miles, and most other states control only the stuff within 3 miles. Texas has been taking payment with royalties-in-kind, and providing cheap natural gas to state institutions with it. Also, TX got a better deal than LA on the federal royalties for some reason. TX has been raking it in for years.

Posted by: stace at June 19, 2008 05:32 PM (JO0c/)

18 Now that my Barack has the great Gore obeying him NOTHING CAN STOP US! WELL END ALL THE CORPORATIONS AND FACISM!!!!!!
Today I got my new flag for 7/4. IT HAS 19 STARS!!!!!!!! One for the REAL states, theBLUE states. No facist *spit* red state *spit* will be in MY country!
I also got 1,000 UN flags on little sticks to plant to counteract the facist *spit* stars and stripes that you nazis leave around.

Posted by: KayInMaine at June 19, 2008 05:33 PM (iL30X)

19 McCain is neck and neck with Obama in Michigan.

Polls have shown him leading all during May, one poll in June shows a Obama 3% lead with a 4% m.o.e. Maybe democrat control of the state is starting to educate people in a way the media don't.


I know why, but it is still shame that the states can't place an export tariff on oil shipped across the state line.
Yep. That would be real popular in my part of Texas.

Posted by: Potosi Joel at June 19, 2008 05:33 PM (TPRbZ)

20 Dear Kay,
Ending corporations liberty is fascism. You cannot socialize and nationalize the companies without being a national socialist, see?

Posted by: Potosi Joel at June 19, 2008 05:36 PM (TPRbZ)

21 Robert, first... the high gas prices have made domestic oil exploration a big issue that most Americans are favoring in spite of the green's efforts to prevent it. Second, that leads to discussions on other forms of energy such as clean coal and nuclear, which they also oppose. Third, it's been cold, so the whole global warming issue may be almost over because they didn't get their foot in the door
while they had the chance... nature has swung back into a cooling cycle.

It's the perfect storm right now. We have to do it, and we have to keep on McCain''s back. He does respond to a certain threshold of pain from callers. I know it.

And these issue may cause moderate Dems to leave the greens in support or expanding domestic energy production. Call those Dems on the House Appropriations Committee. They are hearing it, believe me.



Posted by: Gary at June 19, 2008 05:37 PM (ZZOa6)

22 Actually, success makes Iraq more likely to be an election issue: "if we're ever going to have to do this again, which candidate is most likely to do it in a way that has been proven to work?"

Posted by: cthulhu at June 19, 2008 05:43 PM (AShNd)

23 If McCain does not take all necessary steps to begin effective drilling then I will actively campaign against him through Conservative blogs everywhere. I hope other do the same. He needs to do what WE want. WE are his base. He can't take us for granted.

Posted by: dri at June 19, 2008 05:54 PM (BghOJ)

24 Withdraw? Never!!

Permanent Bases, Bitches!!

Posted by: Terry at June 19, 2008 06:02 PM (yGmLl)

25 So if McCain would take Ace as an advisor he would be a hell of a lot more likely to win.

Posted by: ntac at June 19, 2008 06:02 PM (jYyFD)

26 stace
"Texas has been raking it in for years."
Yeah, that's right, and when we own all the fucking oil (and wells) in the U.S., we will secede!It is our destiny and our right. There will then be red states, blue states, purple states and TEXAS, baby. We'll kick the present Governor in the ass and send him to Nome,elect Bush the new President of the Republic, gasoline will be.54 cents a gallon. And California can kiss our ass with their Green lips. Beautiful!
I guess I got a little carried away there. I just filled up with 3.97 a gallon gas this morning. Sheeeeeit.Sorry.

Posted by: mikeyslaw at June 19, 2008 06:19 PM (QMGr1)

27 I believe Tx and La own more seabed because we and they were not English, or American first. Tx, La, and the rest of the Purchase were French, and the French claimed the extra miles of sea frontier because they were a weaker naval power, and hoped to close out some passages against the RN with paper and pen that they couldn't hold with ships during the early 19th C.

Posted by: Potosi Joel at June 19, 2008 06:32 PM (TPRbZ)

28 Texas has several advantages that the other 49 don't have by virtue of having been an independent republic before they became a state. They were able to negotiate a little better deal than whatall of the othersgot.For instance, whereas the US govt owns vast portions of many western states and adminsters generally mismanages their stuardship of these lands through the Bureau of the Interior, the state of Texas owns all of the land that was unclaimed by corporations or citizens at the time of statehood. The US Park service adminsiters a little federal land (national parks, protected game reserves, protected wetlands, etc.)within the state, but as far as I know, the Interior Dept is totally shut out. This may or may not have anything to do with off-shore drilling arrangements. But the University of Texas and Texas AM are both richer than six foot up a bulls ass from the royalties they recieve from oil and gas production on state lands out in the part of west Texas that was still largely uninhabited until 100 years ago. Absent these arrangements from the beginning the US govt would own most of western TX and the greenies would be mau mauing the shit out of us as to how the oil companies are endagering the sainted jackrabbit, glorious coyote, and saintly mesquite tree.

Posted by: pendejo grande at June 19, 2008 06:59 PM (l/U9W)

29 26
Yeah, that's right, and when we own all the fucking oil (and wells) in the U.S., we will secede!It is our destiny and our right. There will then be red states, blue states, purple states and TEXAS, baby. We'll kick the present Governor in the ass and send him to Nome,elect Bush the new President of the Republic, gasoline will be.54 cents a gallon.

Guess I better start looking at real estate, cause that sounds pretty damn good.

Posted by: Terry at June 19, 2008 07:20 PM (+7Usq)

30 Every mainstream democrat I socialize with in South FL is pretty rabidly anti-Obama and openly stating they'll vote for McCain. You gotta get into moonbat territory before you find an Obamoid.

Palm Beach County is a solid Democrat bastion, but Obama bumper stickers are pretty scarce so far, easily outnumbered by ancient Gore/Lieberman and Kerry/Edward stickers. McCain bumper stickers are equally scarce too.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at June 19, 2008 07:23 PM (c55NW)

31 Let's not question Kay's patriotism, m'kay?

Her sanity, however.....................

Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at June 19, 2008 07:30 PM (kKgTD)

32 blow me kay.

Posted by: spear at June 19, 2008 07:37 PM (oejMf)

33 Stace is exactly correct. Florida couldn't prevent drilling more than 3 miles out if it wanted to and our Congressional delegation/Governor have been very tough to win over.
Over the years, I have been constantly corresponding with these people as they first tried 'oil spills', so I showed them in writing that every oil clean-up we've ever had to do in my 20 year career has been from tankers; you know the things they bring imported oil in on. Plus I sent them the maps that show that our resources are mostly natural gas. Plus I sent them easy pictures that would allow them to understand that rigs 50 miles out wouldn't be visible from condos.
It didn't matter, I just got more nonsense prepared by staff, the most recent from my Senator, explaining that the military had expressed a preference for keeping rigs away from FL, because they would impede flight training. That's right, he played the 'drilling is bad for National Defense' card.
The public clamor is having an impact on these guys, but it's a shame these are the candidates we get and these are the Republicans I'm talking about!

Posted by: CJrun at June 19, 2008 07:53 PM (0Ryg8)

34 I think, contrary to the common wisdom on this one, that coming out in favor of offshore drilling could actually put California in play for McCain (as a long shot, yes, but still in play).

People here in California are as pissed off about high gas prices as (if not more pissed than) everyone else, and we are starting to realize the thanks to the Environmentalist assholes, we are already paying more than most other states. People are rational enough to realize that more drilling means more oil means lower prices. Even the most diehard Dem's I've talked to are not opposed to offshore drilling at this point, so unless Obama came out in favor of it as well, calling for offshore drilling would boost McCain's number our here in California.

Posted by: Nick at June 19, 2008 07:53 PM (SFN8K)

35 Iran wont be the issue, its going to be Oil
Just wait until October and people have to begin using Oil to heat their homes or freeze.

Posted by: bob dole at June 19, 2008 10:04 PM (hS/RG)

36 "I don't know how this came about, but TX and LA control mineral rights
out to nine miles, and most other states control only the stuff within
3 miles."

It has to do with the terms of Texas annexation and the Louisiana Purchase, respectively. It's also why there's relatively little federal land in Texas: whatever there is was bought by the feds afterwards, rather than being rather being reserved when a territory became a state as in most places outside the original 13 (since the public lands of the Texas Republic passed to the state as successor, not the federal government).

"Every mainstream democrat I socialize with in South FL is pretty rabidly
anti-Obama and openly stating they'll vote for McCain. You gotta get
into moonbat territory before you find an Obamoid."

Same here and I live in Broward, which competes with Palm Beach for most Democratic county in the state. The only people I know for Obama are in the Clerk's Office at the Broward County Courthouse: unionized bureaucrats all and 95+% of them completely useless. Florida will be a blowout for McCain.

Posted by: Dave J at June 19, 2008 10:08 PM (glamO)

37 1) Maybe McCain is a states' rights guy; keep in mind also that that line of reasoning sets the stage for him to re-think ANWR--the elephant in the room. Alaskans want ANWR drilled; they want it bad;

2) I do think there is an outside chance that CA will end up in play. Please note that in the 1990s Los Angeles elected a Republican (RINO, whatever) mayor, and a few years ago we elected a Republican (RINO, whatever) Governor; If Johnny Mac walks the tightrope skillfully enough, he might get some votes in SF and L.A. + the Central Valley/Joaquin Valley, OC and San Diego votes he'll have anyway (for the agricultural areas, he'll have to throw some red meat to the base, without L.A./SF noticing);

So the Golden State odds are still long, and it if happens I don't think anyone in L.A./SF will actually be copping to Doing the Unthinkable--like, saying it out loud. But I don't think it's out of the question that CA might throw its votes to a Republican (RINO, whatever) President if the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars.

Particularly once the voters in the beach towns hear how truly minimal the environmental impact is likely to be. That's our job (the bloggers').

One more little datum about CA: we loves us our cars. Loves 'em. We gots to drive, or we die.

I mean, they can pry my PT Cruiser from my cold, dead lead-filled foot.

There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Ace, than are dreamt of in your philosophies.

Posted by: Attila Girl at June 20, 2008 02:20 AM (1q/ac)

38 because they would impede flight training.

That's pretty weak. There are already designated military flight training areas and flight corridors on all the nav charts. The ocean is already heavily populated with cruise ships, freighters, etc on any given day...and those move around, unlike drilling platforms whose motions are somewhat more predictable.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at June 20, 2008 09:25 AM (dcqty)

39 "Particularly once the voters in the beach towns hear how truly minimal the environmental impact is likely to be. That's our job (the bloggers')"
You are joking, right ? You're just preaching to the choir, and a rather ill informed one at that. Off shore drilling is not going to reduce the price of gasoline or heating oil by any appreciable amount in the immediate future nor for any substantial period of time if and when any resultant price reduction does kick-in. Anyone who is opposed to offshore drilling due to environmental risks will certainly not be swayed by the whining, simpering and ranting about gas prices nor by the the unsupported, suspect anecdotes about droves of Dem's voting for McCaine and/or about minimal risk to the environment.
Those stories about alleged opinions and voting intentions of folkswho the writerknows, even if true, reveal nothing more than the mentality of people who choose to associate with the writer.
Curiously enough, what a discussion board of this ilk does rather well is make a strong case that basic environmental protection must continue to be regulated at the federal level. State politico's are even more inept and corrupt than those in DC. And no reasonably intelligent person wants their life, their home, their business, their community, their water, their atmosphere, their scenery nor their recreational opportunities despoiled by a bunch of profiteering shit-kickers of a neighboring state.

Posted by: Snag at June 20, 2008 10:48 AM (3cJMt)

40 Ahh, Thanks Snag! We were wondering when the comment from the section would be coming in. Perhaps, if you had read this blog on a semi-regular basis, you would understand that we already know that opening "banned" area for new exploration, or even allowing drilling in previously known areas of proven reserves that either prior technology or lower oil price made to expensive to drill, will not result in a dramatic drop in Oil prices right away. However, opening the banned area for exploration will result in a drop in prices as speculators see the pressure drop, due to new fields being discovered. There is also the resultant effect of freeing the US from the oil held by fanatical and fascistic tyrants, not only in the ME, but those in South America.Would not just the latter effect be worth exploring? Would it not be worth it to have American energy demand met by American companies, using American resources, while the search goes on for new technologies? Would it not be worth it to not have the control of the economy of the US out of the hands of those who hate the US and wish to see it destroyed and are willing to use Oil and the resultant $$ to do so?

Posted by: SaTx at June 20, 2008 01:12 PM (t9IvU)

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