Latest Polls: Insider Advantage Calls It a Split; Zogby's Special Sauce Smothers Obama With Twin Wins

Insider Advantage: NC Obama +4 and only 4; Indiana Hillary +4.

Zogby puts Obama up by 14 in North Carolina and up 2 in Indiana.

Given Ambinder's back of the envelope demographic analysis, it seems Hillary can't win NC under any likely scenario, unless she carries white voters by eye-popping majorities. Which she almost certainly can't, as the white Democrats in college-heavy NC are almost as lockstep for Obama as black voters are.

On the other hand, a solid win in Indiana and a narrow loss in North Carolina keeps Hillary viable. If she doesn't manage both, superdelegates may rush to wrap this all up now and put her down.

This post is also good. It's possible, a generally-pessimistic Republican analyst says, that this year could be disastrous for the Democrats on the presidential level.

Posted by: Ace at 12:49 PM

Comments

1 So Billy, why are you taking me for a walk? You never take me on walks.

Posted by: Old Yeller at May 06, 2008 12:52 PM (YcXTT)

2 this year could be disastrous for the Democrats on the presidential level.

Who are they kidding? This year is going to be disastrous for everybody on the presidential level.

Posted by: V the K at May 06, 2008 12:54 PM (PLvLS)

3 George, tell me about the rabbits. You know how you do. And remember that I get to tend to the rabbits. And we'll live off the fat of the *BLAM*

Posted by: Lenny at May 06, 2008 12:56 PM (YcXTT)

4 Mitch, it's Wednesday. What are you doing here? Put down that pillow. Stay away ~ mmmphhhhhhhhhh~

Posted by: Maury at May 06, 2008 01:04 PM (UeP9e)

5 And people still pay attention to Zogby, why? The idiots at Zogby could write a book on 'How to continually fuck up and still be employed'.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at May 06, 2008 01:04 PM (Tk5HT)

Unless there are a ton of minorities I'm not hearing about, the report of a heavy Indiana turnout has to mean a Hillary win of at least 10.

If BO doesn't win NC by a similar margin, she keeps the big momentum despite the coming MSM spin that it's almost over.

Posted by: jjshaka at May 06, 2008 01:11 PM (yLWwr)

7 How is the Dinkins effect holding up this year?

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at May 06, 2008 01:14 PM (8d9BL)

8 #4, laughing my ass off.

Posted by: Warden at May 06, 2008 01:22 PM (rZ5uY)

America's first minority President will be a Republican, and a Conservative.

And he/she will be President because of his/her qualities, not skin color.

Regarding the Popcorn Primary™, Mark Steyn says, and I paraphrase: you have not seen the worst of identity politics. Wait till they pit a gay against a mullah.

Posted by: Tushar at May 06, 2008 01:24 PM (IlgNp)

Obama says that he is not an elitist because he puts gas in his car himself.

In New Jersey, we cannot do that by law. We are a bunch of elitists.

Posted by: Tushar at May 06, 2008 01:31 PM (IlgNp)

11 Zogby was way off with Kerry though too if you remember.

Posted by: dan-O at May 06, 2008 01:38 PM (7Nejo)

12 im in ur media

suppressing ur turnoutz

Posted by: lolpollster at May 06, 2008 01:58 PM (INjqv)

In New Jersey, we cannot do that by law.

WTF?!??!?

Posted by: Entropy at May 06, 2008 02:34 PM (m6c4H)

Re Zogby:

He is such a joke now. Why is he even asked his findings anymore?

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