Iraqi Journalist: Basra Is a Trumph For Maliki and the Iraqi Army

Via Richard Miniter at PJM. It seems not quite so clear-cut, but here's some good counterpunch to the NYT's and MSM's assessment that Sadr won by losing.

Let’s round-up today’s events: far fewer rockets were lobbed into the Green Zone today because U.S. airstrikes have really frightened those launching them from Sadr City and elsewhere. Shu’la, near Kadhimiyah, was quiet all day today, so was Sha’ab City. Washash is an important enclave for the Sadrists in western Baghdad and it experienced 5 days of continued skirmishes with the Iraqi Army and police yet the Mahdi Army’s 18 member leadership committee abandoned Washash in the early afternoon Baghdad time and opted to hide in other parts of the city. The 400-500 active militants in Washash are either back in their homes or have left along with the leadership.
All the places that erupted five days ago across southern Iraq were much calmer. There’s a report that Shatra is under Sadrist control and it seems to be totally bogus, according to a source who spoke with acquaintances there today. Qurna, Ghammas, and Nassiriya have all witnessed the collapse of whatever resistance the Mahdi Army could muster in facing government troops.
The NYTimes reports that most of Basra—and by “most” they mean 50 to 70 percent of the city as claimed in today’s NYTimes print edition—is allegedly under Mahdi Army control. This is a complete fabrication. As of last night, the Iraqi Army began a systematic cleansing of downtown Basra and its southern suburbs, meeting minimal resistance.

Allah wrote, I think, that maybe this was analogous to the Israel-Hezballah war, where Hezballah had in fact been damaged and did in fact lose militarily but "won" in the sense it endured.

That may be true, but few battles are truly conclusive as in war-ending. At the end of the day, the JAM was enduring before this attack and they're enduring after; they controlled much of Basra before the attack and they control much of Basra after; they owned much of the police force before the attack and they'll continue doing so.

But the question seems to me to be "Where they strengthened or weakened by this?," and if the answer is the latter, as it does seem to be, then it also seems to me they lost. Enduring at a diminished capacity is a "victory" only if you're defining mere survival as a victory condition. Most wouldn't call that a victory; they'd call it a survivable setback.

Thanks to CJ.

Posted by: Ace at 04:08 PM

Comments

1 But ... but ... that's not what The Meta-Narrative said.

The MSM's lies apparently have no upper boundary.

Posted by: Thinking things over at April 02, 2008 04:11 PM (EQYOq)

2 What's a "Trumph"?

Posted by: Nurse Cheri at April 02, 2008 04:12 PM (cz6lG)

Allah wrote, I think, that maybe this was analogous to the Israel-Hezballah war, where Hezballah had in fact been damaged and did in fact lose militarily but "won" in the sense it endured.

The analogy would only be valid if the Lebanese Army, supported by U.S. airstrikes, occupied Shia Lebanon and Hizbollah was forced to abandon the streets, in which case no one would have called it a victory for Hizbollah.

Of course that could never happen because the Lebanese hate Israel, but you get the idea.

Posted by: TallDave at April 02, 2008 04:24 PM (oyQH2)

What's a trumph? Ace's version of triumph, after 3 bottles of diet rite spiked with Boone's Farm.

Posted by: Mikeyslaw at April 02, 2008 04:29 PM (yrptY)

5 If a reporter stops lying, is he still a journalist?

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at April 02, 2008 04:39 PM (3dohZ)

6 Win by losing is a tired old Tet Offensive meme recycled from the Vietnam war by the MSM. To paraphrase the old quote: I don't think they can survive many more of these "victories".

Posted by: dri at April 02, 2008 04:49 PM (qu/jV)

7 But....Counterterrorism blog says Maliki lost.....Hmmm.

Posted by: Enlightened at April 02, 2008 05:01 PM (CHJ2J)

8 Maliki certainly did not win. Which of his stated objectives were met ?
What per cent of Sadr's fighters were killed ? Do you think he is unable to replace his losses ?
Time to stop drinking that kool aid kids, it is really having a bad effect on your judgement.

Posted by: John Ryan at April 02, 2008 05:15 PM (TcoRJ)

9 "Far fewer rockets"
How about saying EXACTLY how many so that we can judge for ourselves.
Counterterrorism blog has this quote from a US MAj General."Army Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner said he welcomes the Iraqi government’s commitment to target criminals in Iraq’s second-largest city but he concedes there are challenges. He said most of the Iraqi troops “performed their mission” but some “were not up to the task” and the Iraqi government is investigating what happened. The government was surprised by ferocious resistance from followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to the offensive. The Iraqi campaign in Basra also faced desertions and mutiny in government ranks before a cease-fire order by al-Sadr on Sunday."

Posted by: John Ryan at April 02, 2008 05:24 PM (TcoRJ)

10 However you look at this whole Iraq-affair, Iran has gained the most. As to this intra-shia rivalry, Iran are courting and supplying all sides of the conflict.

Posted by: spenn at April 02, 2008 05:29 PM (QIfim)

11 Sorry, sorry, sorry. It took us a lot longer to get here today than usual, I'm sure you understand.

Okay, we have a work order from a Mr. John Ryan. Ah, there you are, Mr. Ryan. Yes, sir, I recognized you right away, having done this work for you so many times before.

So, Mr. Ryan, where would you like us to put these this time?

Posted by: Goal Post Moving Co. at April 02, 2008 07:37 PM (EW49d)

12 Johnny ryan......" Some iraqi troops were not up to the task.
" Show me a military anywhere in the world where that statement wouldn't apply.. All armed forces are somewhat uneven quality wise.

Posted by: Aubrey at April 02, 2008 07:42 PM (NZwhj)

13 Wanna know why liberals & other such vermin show up in Comments here? Because for one thing Ace's the Place in the Wingosphere for finding the kind of unrestrained snapped wit we rarely see in our end of the wallow. [where the hard stuff is at Eschaton. I for own would pay to see an election night live blog alternating between Ace & Atrios. And not just to score the awesome snarkdowns: the ultimate outcome would offer that degree of uncertainty essential to memorable sporting events & great dramas - in stark contrast to main event where a confused short dumpy old white dude stumbles out of his corner, trips & falls on his face & takes the ten count before the first punch.] The other thing is that Ace doesn't just show the location of his vital organs - he lays out the rationale for his positions like 'em or not. I apologize to Ace & the regular spades here for labelling y'all "mooks". Clearly there is some allowance provided here for the possibility that the issue of who if anyone earned a "W" in the battles in Basra & Baghdad over the last week. On my last post I quoted ...o.k. liberally from Juan Cole & got back just a "heh". Well, "heh" back at you bub - if you think you have better info than Cole lay it out. Meanwhile there are sources & takes a plenty out there for all - whatever makes you happy. But I still say the best information is that: [1] Iran is putting its money & arms into all sides that are Shia [2] & no sides that are not [3] as "unattractive" as Sadr may appear to those on this side of the pond, he's the only major leader who didn't slink off to Iran while Saddam Hussein was in charge, and he's the only one who really wants to keep Iraq intact as is, and he heads the coalition heavily favoured to win the provincial elections in October, and that coalition still controls Basra and Basra still is where the oil has to go to leave. For what its worth: I don't imagine either King George or the British Parliament found George Washington all that compelling or attractive a leader in their American colonies either. Just a question to end: given the US is what it is owing to a homegrown revolution against a foreign resident tyranny, how come we keep backing the tyrannies elsewhere & have so much trouble figuring out who the homegrowns are?

Posted by: Diderot's Dog at April 02, 2008 08:42 PM (paU9J)

Since Mookie satyed hiding under some kid's bed in Iran, I can hardly see how his "you die for allah, I'll direct the battle from here" could be called winning. His fighters were killed by the hundreds, hundreds more captured. Tet II - Catch the Fevah!

Mr. John "not Jack" Ryan is simply not credible.

Posted by: Frank G at April 02, 2008 08:59 PM (Ydps9)

15 With Mookie's posse going down like $5 crack whores, Iran is gonna have to up the ante and send in some regulars if they want to stay in this game.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 02, 2008 11:22 PM (tvnQf)

16 Ooooo...Tet II. Didn't see that one coming. And of course, Tet I failed so badly & the allied South Vietnamese & American forces headed it off so decisively, and it all worked out so well, it ended up the seminal moment, the turning point... the DEFINING event in the great victory over the forces of evil in 'Nam. Which is why even today we have thriving military bases in Hanoi & ...what's that other city? Oh yeah: Ho Chi Minh City. Yeah, thriving bases & enduring relationships, and all of it in a highly strategic position relative to the looming menace that is China.

I take it back - partly. You're not all mooks here - but the ones who are ...whoa.

Posted by: Diderot's Dog at April 02, 2008 11:34 PM (paU9J)

17 The thing that puts the "heh" in "Tet" is that the N.V.Army was wiped out almost to the last man. You're really NOT just now finding that out. No, you cannot be.

Posted by: Stoop Davy Dave at April 02, 2008 11:54 PM (A1QUd)

Stoop Davy Dave,

Actually, it was the Viet Cong who were wiped out. It was troops from the NVA we were fighting for the next five years. (And by "we", I mean the US & allied forces.) On the battlefield, Tet was an absolute disaster for the VC. It was quite the unexpected propaganda victory, thanks to Cronkite using his credibility to spin it as a major defeat for our side.

Posted by: Cybrludite at April 03, 2008 03:47 AM (GDpMq)

19 Tet is why our Military doesn't do "light at the end of the tunnel" stuff anymore. The commie press took the fact that Tet could happen in the first place and twisted it to mean the Military always lies and the war was lost.

Sound familiar?

Posted by: eman at April 03, 2008 05:44 AM (0AZ4a)

20 #18
D'oh!
er, that is, please amend my above-posted hasty stupidness and carry on...

Posted by: Stoop Davy Dave at April 03, 2008 08:58 AM (A1QUd)

>>Allah wrote, I think, that maybe this was analogous to the Israel-Hezballah war, where Hezballah had in fact been damaged and did in fact lose militarily but "won" in the sense it endured.<<

This sounds a bit oversimplified; if the 2006 Israel-Hizballah conflict had to be scored as a boxing match, I'm afraid my card would have to give it to Nasrallah on points. Israel's intel--a vital "military" component of any contest--botched; they didn't expect hardened positions or well-armed, well-motivated fighters. They went toe-to-toe with Hizballah, and were largely held off, where they weren't downright bloodied. Any contest where the loss ratio is 4-1 or 5-1 (best estimates have losses at 500 Hizballah, 120 Israeli) can be pretty much counted as a "win" for the bad guys; Israel can't sustain that kind of attrition for long. It's hard to define what their respective objectives were, but Israel was clearly catalyzed by the capture of Shalit, and Private Shalit is still captive, and the Israeli general running the IDF's operations resigned after the truce.

Not glad to say it, but I think the sabra got a lesson two years back. Let's hope they've learned from it.

Posted by: railwriter at April 03, 2008 09:50 AM (2AgNZ)

Someone please clue in Rick Moran at Rightwing Nuthouse. He's reverting to full blown surrender monkey at this time. BTW, in the comments section for Rick's Nancy boy act, there is a really nice slapdown by a military (retired) poster. Recommended reading.

PJM should really think twice about keeping Moran on as Chicago editor unless all they want is good write ups of the latest episode of 24. The guy is flakey.

Posted by: Old texas turkey at April 03, 2008 12:39 PM (r/CWb)

Wasn't there a real "Tet II" in June of '68 or '69? I'll look...

Yup. And it do appear that they NVA got smeared in that one as well, as they did in the '72 Easter Offensive when there were hardly any American ground troops there.

But I digress. The real victory here is Maliki's, because he fought at all, and demonstrated the superiority of ISF over any militia, even one that's been scarfing money from Iran and everywhere else. No, Sadr hasn't been killed or arrested or had his organization utterly destroyed. But he's been made to hand over guys wanted for specific crimes, which is a bigger deal than you realize. In fact, it's COIN 101: McArthur the Elder was doing just that 100 years ago in the Phillippines. When you seperate the criminals from the politicians, make the first anathema and the latter tolerable, you've established a rule that the public notices. Maliki needs to keep the pressure on, but he hasn't been beaten. He's made his first bones.

Posted by: Andrew the Noisy at April 03, 2008 12:40 PM (c767D)

24 Oh look, mooks: one your own says the same thing: *sigh*...LINK One of my favorite Randy Newman lyric runs is from Baby Days when his dad comes back from WWII & tells their NOLA neighborhood "we won!" - & Newman has the residents whoopin' it up into a frenzy: "We KNEW it! We WHIPPED those damn Yankees!" You don't get to run us into bankruptcy & WWIII in Iraq in compensation for not having been allowed to do those same things in Nam. If there are so many of you why did you pick such a loser to lead you. Best in no-show?

Posted by: Diderot's Dog at April 03, 2008 01:01 PM (paU9J)

25 "Surviving" with losses" can be "victory" if the attacker has used up irreplaceable losses in making the attack. The resources could be material, or in troop morale or political backing or national will. This is a very important consideration in a Long War. The liberation of Iraq was a tactical defeat for the jihadi-gangster side. But then it appeared that the U.S. had used up all its willingness to strike down hostile regimes. Syria, Iran, Libya, Hezbollah, Hamas, all decided they would survive, and regain Iraq for their side.

In this case, the question is whether Maliki and the Iraqi Army have used up all political support for attacks on the Sadrists, who retain enough military power to intimidate and control their base areas, or whether the Sadrists have lost so much strength that the Iraqi government can eliminate their military force completely.at some later date.

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