1 The Audacity of Debt.

2 Not baked in.  US futures are down considerably.  Tomorrow will be pretty nasty.

3 'Excesses of the market'?

I think I've found my candidate.

4 I'm sure McCain will try to curtail the "excesses of the market" as well.

Right?

5 Only when the people control the means of production, and the manipulation of the workers by the fascist/Zionist leeches ends, will true freedom come to America. Cast off your chains; embrace the true freedom lovers of the Socialist Democratic Party.

HILLARY NOW!

6 The Vanguard of the Proletariat.

7 Now this right here is why *ANY* Republican is preferable to Hillery! or Orgasma.

Even stinkin' Huckabee.

I hope all of you line-in-the-sanders understand what a Dim Pres and Dim dominated congress actually means.

8 I hope all of you line-in-the-sanders understand what a Dim Pres and Dim dominated congress actually means.

It means if they screw with the economy and it tanks, there's at least a chance of putting the blame where it belongs. If the President is a Republican, conservatives in general will take the blame regardless of whether or not it was their ideas that caused the mess.

9 Yay for irrational resonance!  International markets fall because they are worried about the US, US markets fall because they are worried about the international markets, and my 401k gets the shit kicked out of it.  Bah.

10 Ecomomic Pundits just looove to tell the story of how US is declining and rest of the world is surging economically, and the falling dollar, and the stagnant exports, and the rising trade and fiscal deficit and how America is becoming irrelevant to the global economy and blah,blah,blah.

And then global markets tumble as much as 8% because Prez Bush did not give enough tax breaks to those economically declining Americans.

Wasn't China and France supposed to pick up the slack and save the world economy? Oh right! Their stock markets stumbled badly on news that Bush did not do enough.

As usual, I blame Bush.

11

Definitely not baked in, tomorrow there will be blood in the streets. On Friday, after the market closed, Fitch downgraded Ambac who insures 2.4 trillion in debt.

I predict a 6-700 point drop.

-The risk of European companies defaulting soared to a record on concern credit ratings cuts at bond insurers Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc. may trigger forced asset sales and worsen credit market turmoil. -

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ah63qchMgLJ8&refer=home

12 Why should conservatives be involved in politics at all when we can stay out and blame Dems for stuff? That's way better.

13 Joy and Happiness.

14 I have to wonder how much of the recent economic jitters are due to the fact that investors see the U.S. Presidential race heading left.

15

Wither the republic (spelling intentional).

This election cycle has the potential to bring back the good ol' days for Democrats: a Great Depression and a four term presidency.

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury."

~ Tocqueville

16 Sorry about the bolding, C&P error. I wish there was a preview feature.

17

Proof the world hates the U.S.

It just took a while to register in the markets.

18 I can't wait to see Hillary's "Five Year Plan" for the economy! I wonder if she has been researching Stalin-era plans? Think I'll invest in the economy with more ammo and vegetable seed purchases.

19 I like how Hillary! basically tells us she's a Marxist at every opportunity.  With Bill we got a lot of triangulating and finger-in-the-air bullshit, but Hillary! tells us what's on sale and how much.

I'm not being snarky, I do actually like that about her.

20 I'm wondering if I'll ever be employed in the software development field again.  Holy fucking shit my timing in life sucks...

21 Andrew,

If they screw with the economy, it'll be with Nat'l Healthcare and other new "rights". Please explain where NH has been voted out anywhere in the world. Or frickin Kyoto for that matter. Please show me how we've managed to control social security.

Once these programs get in, they never go away. You might be able to control their growth but they never go away.

Even if Zombie Reagan is elected in 2012, we'll be stuck with these programs and the permanent damage they do our economy and freedom.

22 NortonPete,

The likelihood of a 600-700 point drop is nearly zero.
The markets have automatic trading restriction put into place that stop the type of panic you claim possible. Any slide of that magnitude would take two days and several deep breaths to accomplish.

23 One difference from the usual around-the-world panics: the US markets will have heard from the rest of the world a second time before they open tomorrow.  (Tuesday's open in Asia just a couple hours away now.) A rebound overseas might settle down the hysterical pack-followers a bit.

Ever notice how you never see Hillary and Hugo Chavez in the same photo?

24

nom:

Are you claiming that a 5% selloff in a single day is impossible?

 

 

25 The market can close early if it drops enough, but I think it has to drop 10% to hit the trigger. Anyone know for sure?

26 No, Joe Mama. I'm claiming that it's very difficult to have big sell offs in a single day because intra-day trading restrictions stop huge runs periodically.

27 I predict that we'll survive.

28 At some point the people banking on American economic failure or collapse for their political fortunes and smug smiles are going to figure out it will wipe their slate clean too.

29

There are two distinctly different curbs that the NYSE uses.

Program trading curbs kick in at 190 points and stay for the day but that doesn't stop selling, program selling.

Circuit breakers kick in at a 10% drop or about 1200 points. 1 hour halt.

Dow futures are down about 500 point right now.

(20 years working on Wall St. and was there in 1987 )

30

Thanks, NP for the primer. I thought that was the case.

My posting above regarding the GreatDep/Dem redux was intended as flippancy.

31 See here, generally, for restrictions on trading.
Note that the big restrictions (A 1350 point loss requires a 1 hour closing of the market.) is not the big deal here.

Rather, the restrictions on program trading are the important point because they restrict computerized trading.

32

I have an options lockup that expre in 2 weeks and they have lost about 40% in the last month.  Couldn't everyone have waited a couple friggin weeks to panic??

I will get you.  All of you.

33 1350 was the number from when the market was at 13,500.
Norton Pete and I are not in disagreement about the 10% number.
Rather, I think the restrictions on program trading will effectively halt a huge run.
Those restrictions were implemented post-1987.
We shall see.

But what happens tomorrow is less important than what happens between tomorrow and next Tuesday, imho.

(And I've no doubt all the Leftists who told us negative reporting wouldn't lead to real-world negative impacts will happily ignore that the press has stirred this pot for a minimum of 6 years. They'll claim that the irrational and negative feelings about the current state of the US economy don't matter. And they'll ignore that if positive irrational exuberance could lead to a bubble that negative irrationality could lead to a recession. Ah well, such was it ever.)

34 At some point the people banking on American economic failure or collapse for their political fortunes and smug smiles are going to figure out it will wipe their slate clean too.

I read a bunch of econ/finance blogs.  You could charitably call most of them "perma-bearish."  There is always a crisis that is either right around the corner, or already happening but the sheeple don't get it, or should be happening but it's not because of Wall St/Teh Fed/naked shorts/etc.

Most of them have been sitting out the bull of the last few years and are now metaphorically jizzing all over themselves because of the new bearish sentiment everywhere. 

35 JackStraw,

And you're about 7 years late to just back date the options.
So don't do that or you'll be posting your overly long love letters to Bubba from prison cell E9.

36 I read this earlier:

"I smell the acrid stench of fear and uncertainty," said markets commentator David Buik of BGC Partners.

I seem to recall a bit of trading advice regarding those sentiments.

37

I predict dipping into 10k range by the end of trading Fri

Yes, it will get uglier before it gets better, and that may take while

Recession? Maybe. Economy is still growing. But the markets like people to spend and investors to have cash on hand, and they simply dont

38 I guess if Hillary wins we'll all have to have jobs in the stock market.
Some government officials are going to be setting the high/low sales prices for stocks? Individual stocks? or just the indexes? What could possibly hurt an economy with everyone's stock prices protected by the Federal Government???? Can Gen Hugo Chavez be Treasury Secretary?

39

The program trading halts kick in at 2% and are not that big a deal.  They happen frequently.  The next thing would be the cooling off period (an actual time-out), which has only happened once, I believe (bottom of page).

 

40

Remain calm!!!

All is well!!!!

41 Anyone pay attention enough to know if overseas markets usually take a delayed dump in response to our markets taking a dump, or is it the other way around?

42 I have a small chunk of cash sitting around just waiting for the bloodletting to start. Then I shall pounce (like a nimble yak) and pick up some good deals.
Don't bet against the US, people!

43

It is a credit problem, not really so much related to the actual economic numbers which don't look that bad.

A very large amount of money is going to disappear with fire sales on bonds. That will choke off buyers of new debt and that is what helps fuel the economy.

Program trading halts in place just a couple of months ago still  didn't stop a 500 point swing so hold on to your hats.

Most money managers are young and have never seen a real correction. They think 2-3% drop is a correction. Its called blood in the streets. The 1987 25% crash won't happen again but 10-15% sure.

 

44

I remember Black Friday. 

Great buys the following week.

BLSH.

45 Don't bet against the US, people!

Dude, that's our whole raison d'etre.

46 Stock Market investors are like a bunch of nervous old white ladies walking through a back alley in Compton. The slightest leaf blows in the wind and they all shriek and hug each other, it's pathetic.

47

Or a herd of cattle on the open range.

Storm's a comin'.

48 I have a small chunk of cash sitting around just waiting for the bloodletting to start. Then I shall pounce (like a nimble yak) and pick up some good deals.
Don't bet against the US, people!

Ha!  Tushar, you took the words straight out of my mouth...

I've been taking money out over the last year or so.  Missed out on a bunch of gains, but I guess some buying opportunities lay ahead.

Never bet against the US, motherfuckers!

49 Hillary, get your wide-ass in motion and save us! My 401k is down to 1k.

50

This global market correction is a good thing.  Banks and other financial entities were running fast and loose, creating something out of nothing with their leveraged monetary creations.  As long as the U.S. could fuel this rampant speculation, everyone was making money.  The Ponzi scheme worked.

Now that banks actually have to use some common sense when it comes to debt and financing and loans - shocker - a correction has to be made.

What remains to be seen is how fast the recovery takes place - and more importantly, how foreign banks and financial institutions see the value and long-term potential of the dollar.  These entities are flush with cash and need a place to put it.  Mortgage-backed SIVs are no longer an option.

So far, they are not interested in U.S. debt - they are interested in buying U.S. companies.  As with many things in life, this has its benefits and drawbacks.

51 Stock Market investors are like a bunch of nervous old white ladies walking through a back alley in Compton. The slightest leaf blows in the wind and they all shriek and hug each other, it's pathetic.   I didn't know billions upon billions in losses made one a pathetic old white lady in Compton.  Must be nice to be able to shrug off losses like that.  Considering the average American has made a lot of money (assuming they invested) off those old white ladies, it would be wise to follow what is happening.   For example, as Bush and the Fed try to ease lending, many U.S. institutions are restricting it.  It's called a liquidity trap.  Remember - listen to the Street, not a politician.

52

after labor has become not only a means of life but life's prime want; after the productive forces have also increased with the all-around development of the individual, and all the springs of co-operative wealth flow more abundantly -- only then can the narrow horizon of bourgeois right be crossed in its entirety and society inscribe on its banners: From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs! 

53 I work in Big Pharma and all the new meds prescriptions that will be written next week are just fine with me.

54

I have been trying to warn people  and they say Chicken Little.  I went into cash in DEC.  in everything 401k, IRA, stock account.  I tried to get back in some after Ben's speech but the FEd didn't act.  I will be trading short term.  This is bad people.  This is real bad.  If you haven't sold yet you might wait for the relief rally that should be coming after the selloff.  If we get a nice 2-5% rally back sell everything.  and wait for a sustain rally on huge volume

55

Blogluddite,

When I was in the business many people wouldn't buy unless there had been a good wash out correction with heavy volume. So yes, corrections are a good thing, particularly if there is a component of panic to them.

There hasn't been a decent correction in 4-5 years.

56 If we're going into a deep recession, it's perfect for the Dems. All people want to know is what government will do about it. Of course, the best thing to do is...nothing, and let the market self correct. But so many are economic ignoramuses that they're suckers for lefty demagogy. This makes a Hillary or Obama almost inevitable and a depression to follow.

57 Tremendous buying opportunity. And you don't have to be a genius. Just find a top drawer company, a Merck, a Pfizer, a GE, that's depressed in price and get on board. Don't look for the exact bottom. The good companies are low enough now. In two years you'll be up 50 to 150 percent.

58 I didn't know billions upon billions in losses made one a pathetic old white lady in Compton. Must be nice to be able to shrug off losses like that.

I wasn't referring to this particular event but in general. A book falls over in a library in Topeka and they all run about tearing their hair out crying "sell!! sell!!!"\

Personally I see this very similar to the late 70s when people decided they wanted Carter as president. Worked out real well for conservatives in the end.

59 Tom is already jerking off to the possibility of a meltdown.

60 Fuck the proletariat! But I do like kielbasa.

61

I wasn't referring to this particular event but in general. A book falls over in a library in Topeka and they all run about tearing their hair out crying "sell!! sell!!!"

Again, how is this downturn comparable to something as pedestrian as a book falling over?  No one is crying sell - this isn't Trading Places.  The market is finding better places for its money.  The financial sector is no longer the darling of the market.

I don't see what politics has to do with it - the recession under Carter differs from the meltdown of today.  About the only thing in common was high oil prices, but the causes of the high prices are different.

62

Greenspan screwed up and dropped rates too fast, too far and kept them there too long.  Bernanke is better, so far.  More stable and measured in the changes.  These things are a function of both price and time.

 

63 Blogluddite are you deliberately ignoring what I type to be contrary or something? Please read this line again a few times, it's in plain English:

I wasn't referring to this particular event but in general.

64 that was me, of course

65

Tremendous buying opportunity

Posted by: ricpic at January 21, 2008 07:43 PM (+++MJ)

 

I see you drank the kool-aid of wall street.  We are at the beginning of a bear market.  Banks are failing or close to failing (citibank, bank of America, Chase are all close to the edge.)  All accounts are fully insured by the government..  the Fed government is on the hook for TRILLIONs of deposits due to FDIC.  this is not a buying opputunity this is a selling opputunity to get out with what is left of any profit you had for the last year or so.  Bear markets tend to last for 6-18 months.  If the dems win it will last longer as taxes are raised, companies are under assualt, wealth is confiscated and inflation soars.

 

66

In general, what?  This thread had to do with the economic downturn causes by debt and credit problems.  You throw out a couple of ineffectual analogies, get called on them and then defend them by saying you weren't talking about that?

What are you talking about?  You're lack of knowledge about Wall Street, or better yet, your believe in all the conventional wisdom and stereotypes that the media/Hollywood feeds you?

Are you saying there is no credit crisis?  That this whole event is nothing but an overreaction by Chicken Littles?

I just don't get it.  That's all.

Nice sockpuppet.

67

Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 641.21, or 4.8 percent  as of 9:55 a.m. in Tokyo Today.

Not good.

68

Nothing to fear comrades, Die Komissar Clinton will look out for us.

She has already proclaimed her distaste for the free market and capitalism, just remember that there is no shortage while waiting for your beard for 3 hours.

69

Circuit breakers kick in at a 10% drop or about 1200 points. 1 hour halt.

 

I hope we don't need that...

 

 

70 Only when the people control the means of production

The people do control the means of production.  Unfortunately, it's the Chinese People.

71 >>.  Banks are failing or close to failing (citibank, bank of America, Chase are all close to the edge.)

WTF? The mortgage crisis is really small compared to the overall size of US economy. Ofcourse the banks appear to be failing. They are looking for a Govt handout, and it does not look good to appear pink with health when you do so.
They would love it if the Govt (that is you and me, the taxpayer) would bail out the 'poor hapless homeowner about to lose his shelter'. That way, the banks don't have to shell out the dimes from their own pockets.
Are the banks hurting some? Sure. But failing or close to failing? That is rich steamy bullshit.

72

Posted by: Tushar D at January 21, 2008 09:54 PM (9ULFg)

 

you don't understand what is going on.  citibank lost 10 billion dollars in the last 3 months.  But even if it was just the bank's losses we would be ok.  All home loans with less than 20% down must carry home mortage insurance to protect the banks from forclosure.  All the subprime loans by definition are loans without that 20% down and therefore carry the insurance.  The problem is that there as been so many forclosures that now the mortage insurers are close to bankruptcy.  Ambac was downgraded on Friday which is the leading cause of this selloff.  Ambac is one of the biggest isurers out there.  If these isurers go belly up, or if they are downgraded these loans become toxic even if ALL the subprime loans are being paid on.  They don't have to be forclosured on.  Pensions funds, Mutal funds etc will be required by their own regulations to sell these bonds/loans on the open market at fire sale prices.  The banks that up until this point only shown .20 on the dollar loss for these loans will be required to show 100% potential loss.  That is by some estimations at least 500billion dollars of losses possible 1 trillion.  All the deposits in these banks are backed up by the Federal government.  When a bank looks like it will fold there is a run on that bank as people try to get their money out.  That is just human nature and was shown in England last year with Northen Rock.  If it happens in England it will happen here.  Countrywide had a run on its bank last year also.

Add into this picture on Monday China announced that its banks will take a 5billion hit due to the subprime toxic sludge of the US.  This brought the problem of Banks failures to the entire world and thus the selloff.  The smart money got out weeks ago.  since you don't understand the problem I would imagine you listen to the news and believed when our "leaders" said there is nothing to see it is contained. 

This class warfare of let the banks suffer is what is causing the problem.  The same thing happened in 1929.  The same thought process was why Hoover did nothing to solve the problems of the excess of the markets in an orderly way.  Markets do not solve problem in an orderly way.  They solve problems with short sharp painful, economic destructive ways because the market is nothing but a tool to guage human emotion.

 

the problem took more scope when our government that fights over everything suddenly came to together in a rushed and hurried way to announce a stimulus package that would be approved in record washington time.  This showed the less smart money that there really was a major problem and that lead to last weeks selloff.  Now the dumb money is left holding the bag, the smart money is short the market, the avg citizen will lose his shirt, his 401k, his IRa and his pension.   This week will be panic in the streets as more and more people come to understand the problem.

73

The US GDP is about 13 trillion. Between two bond insurers 2.4 trillion is at risk. That is 20% of our GDP.

74

Posted by: NortonPete at January 21, 2008 10:28 PM (fVuwW)

 

I see at least someone else understands...

75

Posted by unseen: the problem took more scope when our government that fights over everything suddenly came to together in a rushed and hurried way to announce a stimulus package that would be approved in record washington time.  This showed the less smart money that there really was a major problem and that lead to last weeks selloff. 

You are very astute here in your analysis. We showed our hand. Bad move in both poker and trading.

76 Uhhh, folks. Ya need to read this. Note that it's from OCT 2007.


NYSE Eliminates Trading Curbs Dating Back to 1987 (Update1) By Edgar Ortega Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The New York Stock Exchange said it will no longer impose curbs on computer-program trading that were put in place after the crash of 1987, claiming they're no longer as effective in damping swings in prices. The exchange will stop prohibiting brokerages from entering some program trades when the NYSE Composite Index rises or falls more than 2 percent, according to a notice sent to member firms today. The so-called collars had been in effect since 1988 and were triggered 17 times this year, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. ``Volatility is neither restrained nor enhanced by the imposition of the collars,'' the NYSE said in the SEC filing making the changes effective. ``The exchange is making this change since it does not appear that the approach of market volatility envisioned by the use of these collars is as meaningful today as when the rule was formalized in the late 1980s.'' The curbs applied only to some index arbitrage trades on stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index executed at the Big Board. Brokerages weren't barred from turning to rival exchanges to complete those trades. Increased electronic trading has also made arbitrage strategies a smaller piece of daily equity trading, the NYSE said in the filing. Index arbitrage strategies accounted for about 4.6 percent of the total shares bought or sold at the NYSE, according to data on its Web site. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6 percent on Oct. 19, 1987, its steepest one-day decline ever, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. At the time, some analysts and regulators said index arbitrage trades handled electronically contributed to the drop. During the final half-hour of trading, index arbitrage strategies accounted for about 3.2 percent of trading at the NYSE, according to the presidential report on the 1987 crash. Program trading represented a total of about 12.2 percent. Brokerages will still be required to report program trades, defined by the NYSE as the purchase or sale of a basket of at least 15 stocks valued at a minimum of $1 million. To contact the reporter on this story: Edgar Ortega in New York at ebarrales@bloomberg.net .

77 unseen,
every few years, there comes a crisis that is going to destroy the US economy, and consequently the world economy. Either it is the savings and loans, or the Japanese, or the dot-com bubble  or the rise of china, or the  petroleum  cabal.  Each of these crises was predicted to destroy the US  economy and make us all survive on grubs and rats.  Somehow, the economy seems to be oblivious to these crises, and continues to chug along.
Sure, 'I do not understand' the current crisis, and you do. Good for you. You should make the necessary provisions to survive the coming apocalypse. I will go back to work tomorrow, and continue to look for opportunities.

>>This class warfare of let the banks suffer is what is causing the problem.

Why do I smell a plea to rob the taxpayers to rescue the banks here?

78

Posted by: NortonPete at January 21, 2008 10:38 PM (fVuwW)

 

Yes it would have been better if the FED worked behind the curtain and took over the insurers and made the loans backed by the government.  Or cut rates and bailed out the banks and subprime borrows last year but they tried and it turned out to be not PC so they stopped and we are brought to this place and this time.  The FED was able to twist Bank of America 's arm and get them to buy countrywide.  That helps some.  Chase appears to be dragging its feet on Washington M.  Something is wrong with that deal.. Washington M.  may be in even worse shape than everyone is thinking.

Bank of America reports before the market opens, if the earnings are bad look for the futures to hit 750pts down.

 

 

 

79 Are you saying there is no credit crisis? That this whole event is nothing but an overreaction by Chicken Littles?

I just don't get it. That's all.
...
Yes, I can see that. How many times do I have to say "not this event" before you finally figure out I don't mean to speak about this particular event? What language are you more fluent in? Is there some code I should use?

When i criticize the flighty, panicky manner of stock investors I mean through all time in all circumstances, they freak out at the slightest rumor, crash the market with the most minor tip, act like ninnies who are scared of their own shadows.

Nice sockpuppet.

You're new here, aren't you?

80

Eliminating the "Uptick Rule".

This change came in the Summer of 2007 and will cause many changes in trading:

The Uptick Rule: The Biggest Regulatory Change In A Decade & What It Means For You
By D. R. Barton, Jr.
Quantitative Analyst, Mt. Vernon Research

On July 6, 2007, the biggest change in decade took place in U.S. stock market regulation… and nobody noticed.

So while everyone is wrapped up in the loud noise coming from the market, let's take a look at how this "quiet" rule change could turn out to have some interesting effects for investors…

Just two days after America celebrated freeing itself from the shackles of the Brits, the SEC got rid of a 73-year old uptick rule that required an "uptick" in the stock price before a stock can be sold short.

Down With The "Uptick"

First things first… an "uptick" is the common name given to Rule 10a-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This rule basically allowed short selling, but only following a trade where the price was higher than the previously traded price (called an uptick).

As you can imagine, the uptick rule was the enemy of many investors who tried to short a stock, only to be unable to get a much worse price than desired. It was one of the rules that made stock trading tilted to the favor of the long side.

But now, the SEC has removed the "price test restrictions" (as it says) on short sales and prohibited any other organizations, such as local exchanges, from imposing price tests.

What the Elimination of the Uptick Rule Means for Investors

There are some well-publicized disadvantages to limiting the practice of short selling. For example, blow-off tops occur more frequently in markets where short selling is restricted.

So now that the SEC has ditched the uptick rule, how does this affect the market's major players? Let's see…

Individual Investors: Longer-term investors, especially those that only go long, will see little change in their activities. But for anyone shorting NYSE or AMEX stocks, the change could have a significant impact on the ease of getting filled in those short sales, since investors will no longer have to wait for an uptick. However, there won't be much change for Nasdaq stocks, since earlier changes allowed legal workarounds for Nasdaq traders.

Institutions & Funds: A common practice for "big money" on Wall Street was to craftily put in a significant amount of buy orders to move a stock to an uptick before then placing their real short sale order. But now that the SEC has eliminated the uptick rule, short selling will now be more efficient for these institutions and funds.

And the end of the uptick may also be affecting the Tick Index…

81

Posted by: Tushar D at January 21, 2008 10:42 PM (9ULFg)

 

Every few generations there comes economic crisis that creat what is know as creative destruction in the marketplace.  this process flushes the toxic crap that has built up in the economic system out of the drain and allows economies to start anew.  We are in a period of creative destruction.  the excess of subprime low interest/no interest loans to low income people has spurred a great boom in the economy.  Those excesses can not be continued because the low income people are failing to pay.  The problem is that you have to have destruction before rebirth.  The last time we went through a major creative destructive event was 1929.  Due to that event our nation moved towards socialism on a grand scale.  with social security, unemployment and the beginning of a permenant welfare class.  People's attiude of "Let them eat cake" is causing more problems then it is solving and will more then likely cause another large move towards socialism in this country as millions lose their jobs, homes, and retirement. 

 

 

 

 

82 There are a lot of causes. But one stands out to me - the Press and the Left CONSTANTLY trying to convince everyone else to pull back because we're ON THE VERGE OF A RECESSION!

After SEVEN YEARS of verbal abuse, the economy is finally taking its ball and going home.

The Press and the Left will of course claim they were just right, without admitting their part in this.

I'm running out of expletives for those piles of human debris.

When the economic indicators were good, they set about convincing the man in the street that the sky was falling... and so the man in the street changed their attitude, their spending, and their business decisions. And they talked. And what does the economy run on? Information - good or bad.

I couldn't go anywhere without some moron repeating what they heard on NPR about how WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!eleven!!!1!!

Well, I hope you enjoy your recession, naysaying bitches. May the worst land square on top of the whiners and those who were jonesing for catastrophe.

This is really, really pissing me off now. Malingering, whining, carping jackasses.

83

Posted by: NortonPete at January 21, 2008 10:52 PM (fVuwW)

 

The uptick rule was placed because back then people understood that human's  emotions of fear/greed were strong enough to destroy themselves.  Thus guiderails will placed to blunt those very human emotions of fear and greed.  without the uptick rule movements of fear and greed are strengthened  and are steeper than with it.  Thus banning the uptick rule puts in place a negative feedback loop.  Negative feedback loops in the market are not a good thing.

 

 

84 unseen,
I agree with you on the creative destruction thing, but I am a 'let the chips fall where they may' kind of guy. I say, let the banks suffer. Better if a few go under. Let the financial industry crawl out of this hole and trudge on. I do not want the taxpayers to pay for this.
You don't want a huge crisis that will tilt the country towards socialism. Fair enough, so do I. But the notion that you seem to be dancing around is that the Govt should somehow 'bail out/strong arm/takeover failing insurers'. I oppose any such things. I want the Govt to keep its big nose out of this. If that means a few idiots who could not figure out how much home they can afford become homeless, so be it. Govt intervention will give short term reprieve and create long-term damage. Not to mention set bad precedents.

The best thing the Govt can do about the economy is NOTHING!

85

Posted by: Merovign at January 21, 2008 10:59 PM (IaYDo)

Agreed the press in another negative feedback loop. 

 

 

86 The S&L crisis of 1987 cost the taxpayers around $160B in an economy of roughly one half the size of the current economy.

So thinking about this situation I can see the US government handling a relatively large bailout. The one President Bush suggested, however, seems to be a lot smaller than what will eventually be realized. And to assume that government will help get us out of a problem that they helped create seems a bit foolish. Think of that in light of the following quote:
"We have a housing industry that is subsidized by the government through the mortgage deduction and favorable tax treatments of cap gains compared to other investments. These government inducements to buy real estate along with cheap money led to the crisis and corruption."

That's just some poster on a blog comment board but it seems right to me.

87

Posted by: Tushar D at January 21, 2008 11:04 PM (9ULFg)

That was the attitude of the Queen of France.  Notice that there is no more Queen of France.  It was also the attitude of Hoover.  Notice the Reps lost power for 20 years in the Presidency and 70 years in the congress.  You don't want the taxpayer to pay for this?  fine but we are on the hook either way.  If the gov takes over the insurers like they did for  the S&L of the 1990's it might cost 250b to 500billion.  If the government does nothing due to the safe guards put into place by FDR the government is on the hook for trillions in deposits

During an election year the government will not sit on its hands and do nothing.  Now we can continue to drop money out of thin air as in the stimulus package costing us 150b.  or we can actually fix the problem

 

The taxpayer will pay. One way or the other the tax payer will pay.  Make no mistake on that.   It is like anything else in life.  The quicker you fix the problem the less it ends costing you.

88 unseen,
We'll pay but the question still remains: Did the US government exacerbate the lending crisis in the first place?

I would answer yes.

89

Sorry to offend, Christopher/Che.  My bad.  If you want to post a witty analogy that has nothing to do with the topic, it's up to you.  I don't understand why you would make such a broad sweeping analogy and then say it doesn't have anything to do with the topic at hand.  Maybe you're a comic and trying new material.  Maybe it's funny non-sequitor and I don't get it I don't know.

Back to topic:

I agree with Tushar D.  The government should stay away from this and let the market correct.  We're already staring at a potential liquidity trap.  Look at how well that helped Japan.

90

Posted by: Nom de Blog at January 21, 2008 11:30 PM (ThZCx)

Yes the government is responsible since LBJ.

You don't give money to poor people, destroy their education and expect them to pay their bills responsible.  Most are  poor for a reason.  Sure some had bad things happen to them that was not their fault but most are poor because they or their parents were not taught how to handle money, were not taught about compounding interest, depreciation, appreciating assets.  about credit cards, etc.

Giving money to poor people is like giving crack to a crack addict. 

 

91 Nikkei and Hang Seng down 5%

92

The government should stay away from this and let the market correct

Posted by: Blogluddite at January 21, 2008 11:33 PM (sfxPF)

 

I think the problem is not many people alive today has seen a real market correction.  A major market correction means millions unemployed, millions losing their homes etc.  It could lead to major wars, choas, inflation, deflation.  Once you let the genie out of the bottle it takes a life of its own as the last 2 day worldwide selloff shows. 

It does not mean a few very rich people suffer or a couple people that made bad decsions suffer. 
It means we all suffer. 

93 Sorry to offend, Christopher/Che. My bad. If you want to post a witty analogy that has nothing to do with the topic, it's up to you. I don't understand why you would make such a broad sweeping analogy and then say it doesn't have anything to do with the topic at hand.

So you think investors overreacting to bad news has absolutely nothing to do with the topic at hand?

In any case, my name (for real) is Christopher Taylor. Che Guevarra was a thuggish murdering communist revolutionary I was mocking in another thread. That happens a lot here: people will post using an alternate name for comic effect.

I'm not very good at it but I try anyway so others can look better by comparison. Stick around here and you'll have a blast - this is a place where people have fun for the most part and hide behind it while they post rather deep analysis and thoughtful posts on the topics.

94 SO should I pull my $$ out of my 401 K and throw it in gold or what?

95 SO should I pull my $$ out of my 401 K and throw it in gold or what?

Posted by: TMF at January 22, 2008 12:02 AM (+Ac3z)

 

gold's down 23.00 dollars. Not sure if it would be good to sell tomorrow.  It's a little late.  The Fed may do a emergency rate cut tommorrow or when The Fed meets next week could give a brief hard rally up.  Then I would sell on that strength.  The question is how far will we be down by time of the cut.   Cash is always a good choice. You can start buying back in after a sustained two day rally on high volume.  I would also suggest you pay off any ADJUSTABLE rate loans like credit cards, etc.  Banks will raise credit card rates to increase income in these tough times.  There is no law on what the banks can charge.   

96

Banks will raise credit card rates to increase income in these tough times.  There is no law on what the banks can charge.   

So ive noticed- fortunately im one of the few lucky ones with minimal c card debt.

But ive got a nice chunk o' change in a 401 k- over 100k- mostly invested in an index fund and a mid-cap fund. Im seriously considering putting most of it in a bond fund, but its probably too late

97 Every so often I think that I should write The Great American Research Paper on economics. Then I think that The Great American Novel would provide more acclaim and money. Then I consider that The Great American Screenplay would make me an even quicker, bigger buck with added access to gorgeous starlets...then I forget what I was going to be talking about in the first place.

Oh, yes -- my thesis would be that monetary policy is driven by class warfare. It would seem obvious that those individuals with large amounts of cash equivalents would be most hurt by inflation, while those with large amounts of currency-denominated debt would welcome inflation as a method of debt relief. Unlike classical models of class warfare (bourgeoisie, anyone?), the inhabitants of these classes are strongly predetermined by the monetary policy in effect during their early years, and the strategies employed would be evolutionary. Someone whose parents scrimped during the '70s and saw their savings consumed by inflation would now still be scrimping, but avoiding standard savings accounts in favor of inflation-protected investments. Someone who lived well in the '80s while the burden of their fixed debt declined as a percentage of income would attempt to live well in the current period while taking on additional debt. And each group would attempt to elect the government that would most benefit their advantage.

Then I get to thinking about those starlets again.....hmmmm.....starlets....

98

Im seriously considering putting most of it in a bond fund

Posted by: TMF at January 22, 2008 12:20 AM (+Ac3z)

 

Yeah probably to late.  Locking in a Cd at 4.25% might be a good call since interest rates are forcasted to decrease and it is FDIC insured.  Yes 4.25% is not that much but your capital will be safe.  Cash is good also.  Bonds have had a great move.  probably due to a pullback.  If you get a big pullback in bonds it might be good to buy on the dips.  real estate, stocks,  still have a ways to go down before they look good.  Gold is a hedge on inflation.  It looks like we are in a deflation period.  Deflation is 10x worse than inflation.  gold will decrease in value if it is delfation cycle we are in.  Oil will decrease also.  silver linning I guess.  Gas will be cheaper. 

99

Posted by: cthulhu at January 22, 2008 12:23 AM (XowFF)

 

Interesting theory.  you make very good points.

100

And so it begins.

 

Sen. Charles Schumer Says Limiting Stimulus to Those Who Pay Income Tax Is Unfair

Any rebate included in an economic stimulus plan should include people who pay Social Security taxes, not just those who pay income taxes, a leading Democratic lawmaker said Sunday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080121/economy_stimulus.html

 

As I said above.  the tax payer will pay.  The question is how much and what will do the most good.

101

 Oil will decrease also.  silver linning I guess.  Gas will be cheaper. 

Indeed. Cheers to cheaper gas!!!!

Thanks for the insight- they dont teach finance in law school

102

Thanks for the insight- they dont teach finance in law school

Posted by: TMF at January 22, 2008 12:55 AM (+Ac3z)

 

That's the problem they don't teach it anywhere.  You would think in a capitalistic society we would teach our kids from age 3 amount money.

 

 

103   Good luck to everyone in the market tommorrow.  It's going to be an eventful day.   

104 SO should I pull my $$ out of my 401 K and throw it in gold or what?

We moved a big chunk into Euros in 2004, smaller amounts into Australian dollars and Yen.  The Yen haven't done so well, but the other two are great.

Too late for you, of course.

105 Right, if Hillary gets elected, expect the immediate "hiccup" in the U.S. market to be huge.  Why, you may ask?

Well, picture the following three scenarios.

1) You have $200,000 invested, that you've had for the past decade or so; half is gains, half is basis.  You're still working, and don't need the money. If you take any out, you'll pay 15% on the half that is gains (long term capital gains rules apply).  If you leave it in, that money you'll eventually owe in taxes is working for you (rather than being given to the Government).  Smart advice... keep it invested unless you have a real need to move your money.  Selling $200 and buying $185 of something else, well that something else needs to be much better than what you have, because you'll have less invested in it initially.

2) 2011 (previously 2008 before the extension), Long term capital gains tax jumps from 15%, to your tax bracket (35%).  All of a sudden the equation shifts (depending on when you plan to get out completely).  Having $185 with taxes paid, or $200 where you know you'll owe $35+... well, that's a lot trickier.

3) Hillary.  Wife of a President that passed a "retroactive" tax hike to the beginning of the year.  Wants to "tax the rich".  Calls stockholders rich...

Do you think 15% Long-Term Capital Gains tax will stay until 2011 under her?  Do you think the top tax bracket will stay at 35%?  Now, keeping that $100,000 in gains working on earning is nice, but paying 35%++ of it later when you do sell is bad.  Paying 15% of it now looks like a better deal.

Of course, in this last case, you need to cash out your long term gains by Jan 1st to be sure the tax increase won't be retroactive and catch you anyhow.  So, between election day and Jan 1, everyone who knows the above sells their profitable holdings.

And when the selling starts, and the prices start dropping; those with gains will want to get out early, which will increase the seller/buyer ratio, which will drop the prices further.

And people won't be getting back in immediately, as you might as well wait for the price floor before buying... so the seller/buyer ratio is very bad, and the sellers have a serious deadline, but the buyers aren't in a hurry.

I'm not saying the above will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it.  But I'm guessing about a year out, based on a hypothetical election outcome, and my guesses miss from time to time; so get some real advice if you're seriously worried or likely impacted by the above.

Of course if you're taking investment advice from a nameless commenter on the internet, you're deeply in penny stocks sure to double in the next few months that you got an e-mail about.

106 I hope all of you line-in-the-sanders understand what a Dim Pres and Dim dominated congress actually means.

Hmm, let me think. 

Bill Clinton tries stupid healthcare crap, Dims go along, Repubs filibuster and block, and it doesn't pass.

Bush tries stupid healthcare crap, Dims go along, Repubs go along, it passes and Medicare is more screwed than ever before...

... mostly the same people in Congress for both actions.

So, Dim President means Repubs in Congress will actually be more fiscally conservative.  Whereas nothing makes Dims in Congress fiscally conservative.

So I should vote Dim for Prez if the Choice is a Liberal on both tickets (which looks possible); but vote for Repubs for Congress as balance.

Or was that not your point?  Do you have an example where this Republican Congress shows any real backbone standing up to a Republican President on a spending bill?  Because I don't think they have, and they certainly haven't shown any willingness to do so.

107 That's the problem they don't teach it anywhere.  You would think in a capitalistic society we would teach our kids from age 3 amount money.

That's what you get when you get when the state becomes the monopoly educator and has as its proxy a union dominated by far-left ideologues.

Again, there's a lot of reasons why that happened, just like the leftist press corps. But you end up with huge crowds of kids repeating as a mantra things like "Why don't republicans want to help poor people BWAAAAK?!?"

The LAST thing a soft-to-mid lefty teaching-school grad wants kids to know is economics. Talk about chipping away at one's own foundations.

108 Blacks are unteachable. Whites learn prudence no matter what leftist stupidity they're taught. Go ahead. Call me racist. The truth's the truth.

109 I like your information, unseen, but why the small font?

110

Techie at January 22, 2008 10:44 AM (AV8Z6)

not sure how to change it.

As far as today's actions,  FED saved the day for now.  Hopefully it will be enough to stem the blood on the streets.  The underlying conditions are still there.   Hopefully we can now work thru those conditions is a sane and calm manner.    Still the FEd did something today it has not done in 25years.  That if nothing else should give people a wake up call of the problems we as a country face.

111 ricpic: You are racist.

112 As I said upthread:

The important point is NOT what happens today. The important point is what happens from today until next Tuesday.

(Oh, and I was right about the market not losing 600-700 points in a day. The Fed action probably helped my prediction but the odds that nothing would happen on the government side were factored into my guess work/analysis.)

113

Agreed. There are systemic problems in our economy that need to be changed-now-or we're in for the first sustained period of either stagnation or economic loss this country has seen in over 50 years.

We need to produce something other than debt.

114

We need to produce something other than debt.

Posted by: TMF at January 22, 2008 02:12 PM (KTgUG)

 

Yes hopefully with the weak dollar it will become profitable to again make things in the USA.

115 Unseen, post 99: Interesting theory.  you make very good points.

It's hard to go wrong when adoring young ladies are involved....

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