Final Des Moines Register Poll: Huck and Obama Lead

Two days until the Iowa Caucus and the latest poll shows Huck holding on to his lead 32%-26%. That is pretty much where they were in the paper’s last poll in November. Coming in third at 13% is The Maverick while Fred is tied with Ron Paul! at 9%.

The poll was conducted between last Thursday and Sunday (27th-30th), so it encompasses the early part Fred’s bus tour.

I think the biggest surprise is that McCain’s NH and national revival is being reflected in Iowa. I don’t think he’s campaigned there as much as others and when he does he gleefully points out he’s against Ethanol subsidies (that’s the good Maverick).

On the Democratic side, Obama is up to 32% support to Hillary’s 25% and Silky’s 24%. That means Obama has gained 4% from the last poll with the others have remained at the same levels.

BTW- If you are interested in the mechanics of a caucus, check out the Register's primer.

UPDATE: The Worldwidestandard.com says the DMR poll is something of an outlier but was the most accurate poll in 04.

A new CNN poll shows Romney in front of Huck and Fred ahead of Maverick.

Romney leads Huckabee 32%- 29%, with Thompson leading the second division with a distant 13%. On the Democratic side, it's Clinton 33%, Obama 31% and the angry populist at 22%.

Posted by: DrewM. at 12:44 PM

Comments

1 Couldn't we slip Huckabee the non-Val U Rite Vodka that killed 11 Mongolians?

Posted by: steveegg at January 01, 2008 01:05 PM (LvEFt)

2 Fred is tied with Paul !!
Republicans ya just gotta love them.

Fred has fallen again, today he is at 85-1 to win the White House. http://www.intrade.com/#
Paul is at 25-1

Posted by: john Ryan at January 01, 2008 02:00 PM (TcoRJ)

3 Hitchens neatly described Iowa's caucus

Posted by: St. Paul Plunder at January 01, 2008 02:01 PM (bGDqs)

4 Paul is at 25-1

That is just reflective of the commitment, gullibility and emotionalism of his supporters. Fred's a long shot but not 3+ times less likely to be President as Ron Paul, at least in the real world.

Posted by: DrewM. at January 01, 2008 02:06 PM (hlYel)

Did anybody else notice the "No Executions" part of the Huckabee attack ad? When I watched the ad that part really stuck out and I remembered a case at the Supreme Court a few years about executing retarded people. Then I laughed a little about the defense which was pretty much "If we don't execute retarded people everyone on death row will suddenly be retarded". One of the states that executed retarded people was Arkansas wasn't it?

I know they executed a guy who was crazy in 2004 when Huck was in charge. Crazy unless they made him take his med's which was apparently some sort of loophole that made it OK to kill him. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3374831.stm

It's a pity he didn't find Jesus and a pardon.

Does anybody know if they executed any retarded people in Arkansas during Huck's time in office?

Posted by: mike at January 01, 2008 02:15 PM (/InkS)

6 In the last 42 hours since its release, Fred's "Message To Iowa" video has accrued a YouTube viewer count of more than 114,000. That is 114,000+ individual views of the video's entire 17 minutes - YouTube does not count a partial view of a video as part of the "viewer count". Multiple embed video plays count as one view. Using "refresh" does not increase YouTube's viewer count total for the video. If multiple views come from the same IP address, only the first is counted

(information is from Tubemogul.com)

And this does not include the fred08.com viewer count.

A lot of people have demonstrated the patience and willingness to sit through that entire video - which was released on the evening of Dec. 30, and, btw, was the last day of polling for both the DMR and the CNN products. The DMR Republican results included a note that 46% of the likely respondents were open to changing their candidate preference during the caucus.

Posted by: mrp at January 01, 2008 02:36 PM (HjPtV)

7 85-1? Wow. I wonder who I can talk into betting? That would be an incentive to campaign like hell, and go to caucuses and primaries and stuff, even for the politically-uninterested. Hmm.

Posted by: Nevicata at January 01, 2008 02:43 PM (+zNY0)

8 "Does anybody know if they executed any retarded people in Arkansas during Huck's time in office?"

I would think not, else the population of the state would be decimated. Only fucking retards would elect Bill Clinton AND Huckabee.

Posted by: Bruce at January 01, 2008 02:53 PM (2q+Ss)

9 You know, I'm with Ace and others now. If Huck becomes the candidate ... I'm staying home or voting for the Dem.

How do the fundies like them apples?

Posted by: carin at January 01, 2008 03:29 PM (/lyxQ)

10 If Huck wins Iowa, I suggest that Iowa Republicans be required to wear "I'm with Stupid" tee shirts for the rest of the campaign. I suspect the Huckaboom is an MSM/Dem invention... or at least I hope like hell it is.

Posted by: sherlock at January 01, 2008 04:25 PM (MIBYg)

I know that this will make me sound like a loon, but I just don't believe that this polling can be correct.

Are we Iowans this stupid?

Posted by: Warden at January 01, 2008 04:35 PM (k/lkp)

12 Warden,

I could absolutely seeing it be correct. Remember, we are talking about a fairly small number of people. In the 2004 Democratic Caucuses 122,000 people showed up. In the 2000 Republican Race 86,000 turned out.

Take the higher number. To get 33% or so means turning out about 40,000. I could easily see Huck, with his built in base which is motivated, organized and committed, pulling off those kinds of numbers.

Posted by: DrewM. at January 01, 2008 04:57 PM (hlYel)

13 The low turnout also means that accurate polling is very, very difficult, however, and that way-off polling is easy.

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