Poll: Romney Edges Huckabee By 3% In Iowa

Thompson, by the way, clocks in at not-great 10%, but that is enough to put him in third behind Romney (28%) and Huck (25%).

Clarification: Romney's ahead only with "very likely voters." Among likely voters, they swap places (Huck up by 3 with 28%).

Thanks to Allah for noting that.

Posted by: Ace at 07:29 PM

Comments

1 Um, Turkey just bombed northern Iraq.

Posted by: Vercingetorix at December 18, 2007 07:32 PM (Qa4x4)

2 Link

Posted by: Vercingetorix at December 18, 2007 07:35 PM (Qa4x4)

3 Thompson just started his trek across Iowa last night, with pretty damned good reviews, it will be interesting to see this poll 10 days from now.

Posted by: A. Weasel at December 18, 2007 07:46 PM (bqcfE)

4 This is completely off topic but has anyone else been declined by blogcatalog.com?

If so did they give you a reason?

I'm not really that upset about being declined. It's their site and they can run it how they want but first off they didn't notify me my blog was declined so I have had their stupid little button on my site for a few weeks and secondly there is a resubmit option that says after you have made the requested changes you can resubmit and in XX days they will lt you know. How am I supposed to make the requested changes when they have never told me what they are?

So I email and ask what the problem was and the email back and ask for the URL which i send and then never hear from them again. This kind of crap just pisses me off. All they have to say is "Sorry not interested" and I am fine with that but jeez give me an answer.

Posted by: chad at December 18, 2007 07:48 PM (lNQg8)

Um, Turkey just bombed northern Iraq.

With Huck-A-Bombs.

Posted by: steveegg at December 18, 2007 07:54 PM (LvEFt)

6 At this point, I'm rooting for Thompson. The way he stuck by his 10th Amendment guns on the abortion issue -- rather than paying lip service to the HLA crowd -- was impressive to me. It wasn't the popular, pandering stance it was the principled stance, and he had the guts to stand steady.

That said, Fred is my favorite in a weak GOP field, with Romney second. Neither is my dream candidate, but both are infinitely better than Huckster.

Posted by: Nordbuster at December 18, 2007 07:57 PM (jYT9+)

7 I find it hard to believe that Huckabee is actually leading in the polls here in Iowa. Every person I spoke with told me that they’re supporting Romney or Thompson and that everyone they knew or worked with (who are also Republicans) feels the same way. None of them have even considered Huckabee as a serious choice.

Brian Pickrell , pjm, Dec. 16

I spoke to a cousin who lives in Iowa last night, and he also has no idea what is going on there.
EEEnteresting...

Posted by: A. Weasel at December 18, 2007 08:13 PM (bqcfE)

8 There is no way that the entire GOP can keep chugging the Fuckabee kool-aid for long. It it comes down to the Hildebeast versus Fuckabee in the general, I'd vote for a Ron Paul third party run. No offense to our buddy from Winterset, but I'm not happy about the fact two states that normally don't fucking matter for shit (Iowa and New Hampshire) get to pick the next leader of the free world.

Posted by: SGT Dan at December 18, 2007 08:31 PM (oOQel)

If true (and that's a big if) this is very, very bad:

No problem occurred with a conflict in the air space, but might have as both military and commercial flights go through northern Iraq, the officials said.

U.S. diplomatic officials also expressed irritation that the Turks had not provided them or the Iraqis with advance notice of the operation and said they had made their displeasure clear.

One senior State Department official said the Turks informed the United States of the airstrikes through military channels in Ankara but not until after the first wave of planes was already in the air.

When questioned about the late notification, the Turks replied they were chasing PKK rebels and there had not been time, according to the official.

Posted by: funky chicken at December 18, 2007 08:48 PM (I+jPP)

10 Someone fire a rocket over to Ace, so we can get his take on this while he uses 4-letter words as subject, verb, object of a preposition, pluperfect, and gerunds and metaphorical language to tranny hobos. He never shows me email love

Posted by: Vercingetorix at December 18, 2007 08:53 PM (Qa4x4)

11 Nordbuster, apparently the Nat'l Right to Life Committee agreed with you, because they endorsed Fred! soon after that appearance. Not that he seems to have gotten any help from that endorsement among the Hucksterlovers.

Posted by: funky chicken at December 18, 2007 09:10 PM (I+jPP)

12 There is no way that the entire GOP can keep chugging the Fuckabee kool-aid for long. It it comes down to the Hildebeast versus Fuckabee in the general, I'd vote for a Ron Paul third party run. No offense to our buddy from Winterset, but I'm not happy about the fact two states that normally don't fucking matter for shit (Iowa and New Hampshire) get to pick the next leader of the free world.

Vote for Paul third party over Huckabee? I tell you what, if pissing away your vote means that much to you write in LaRouche or Micky Mouse.
I'm also tired of hearing Iowa and N.H. decides the nomination, bullshit. It did help get some free media attention for a few weeks but the way the primaries are set up now, you're better off spending your time and resources on Super Duper Tuesday. That's where this will be won and lost.

Posted by: lowandslow at December 18, 2007 09:12 PM (2hR2V)

Fox just said that Edwards in now in the lead in Iowa.

They're all on crack. The polls, that is.

Posted by: mesablue at December 18, 2007 09:14 PM (KCOdQ)

14 I'm not happy with the primary system either, nor how these two states arbitrarily have so much power while many, many other states are totally irrelevant because they fall later in the year. It's a crappy system all around.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at December 18, 2007 09:16 PM (hfyfI)

15 Verc--the "incursion" happened on Sunday, so they bombed a couple of days ago. It's big news if they didn't tell us first.

Posted by: funky chicken at December 18, 2007 09:16 PM (I+jPP)

16 I'm starting to think people just fuck with the pollsters and give them crazy answers when they call.

Posted by: funky chicken at December 18, 2007 09:17 PM (I+jPP)

17 This is the first primary i've ever paid any attention to. (I've been very ummm uh busy? since 1994.) This is headache-inducing vomitosis, these polls are nonsensical, I wanna punch Hucky in the balls and I have a hangnail.

Posted by: Joanie at December 18, 2007 09:31 PM (Yyy1m)

funky chicken:

Nah, not really. If the Turks were sincere that it was a hot pursuit and it was chase 'em or lose 'em, and it doesn't become a habit, I don't see any long term repercussions. No one on any side is all that excited to start that mixup.

Qwinn

Posted by: Qwinn at December 18, 2007 09:34 PM (/FDfc)

19 I'm beginning to hate Iowa. Next time I fly over I'm not even going to look at it.

Posted by: defjavidson at December 18, 2007 09:39 PM (ya07C)

From looking at the poll, looks like Fred and McCain have a significant gender gap, whereas Romney and Huckabee don't.

Gee. Why would women be predisposed toward Romney and Huckabee, and against Fred or McCain? I can't imagine. It must be something totally random, and not at all shallow.

No offense to the ladies here, but seriously, sometimes I think the 19th amendment will be the death of the Republic. A good minority of women seem to vote with their heads, but a frightening majority seem to vote purely based on looks. And I'm not just saying that because of this poll. I hear it from way way way way too many women I meet in real life. They -totally- vote completely based on how the candidate makes her "feel" when she sees him talk, and if she thinks he's hot, it's a slam dunk vote for him. Nauseating.

Qwinn

Posted by: Qwinn at December 18, 2007 09:40 PM (/FDfc)

21 I base my vote strickly on which ever candidate has the most excess skin and fortunately this time around we have a clear and obvious choice. Thanks formerly very fat Arkansas governor Mike "kids don't pull on grandpa's neck" Huckabee!

Posted by: defjavidson at December 18, 2007 09:52 PM (ya07C)

Wait, actually, there's something in that poll that's even more striking than the gender gap. Check out the age gap.

Among likely voters, Thompson and Giuliani have -zero- in the 18-29 crowd? Not even 0.1? Absolute Freaking Zero?

And in the highly likely, only Romney, Huckabee and Ron Paul score above zero? Thompson, Hunter, Tancredo, McCain, Guiliani, all -zero-?

That is some messed up shit right there. And unless the 18-29 crowd is sporting a whole lot of evangelicals - which would be news to me - I think that puts a crimp in the Narrative(tm) about where Huckabee's support is coming from.

Qwinn

Posted by: Qwinn at December 18, 2007 09:53 PM (/FDfc)

I've been standoffish until very recently. I never really got excited about Rudy, McCain was a non-starter. I liked Mitt for a while, but he seems a little too plastic to me, and I'm uncomfortable with some of the things that happened under his governership. I had a lot of friends tell me to check out Huck, but I never really got around to it until maybe the last two weeks. He's not going to work for me either. Being from San Diego, it's hard for me not to support Duncan. But he hasn't gotten much traction, nationally, and - though I like him a great deal - I'm just not sure if he's ready for it.

But i've noticed something. The media likes McCain, but we saw through that. So they started pushing for Huck -- then they got sort of sly about it and started slamming him based on religion. I sort of get the feeling that the MSM thinks we'll react to that by supporting him, without looking at his real record. Well, I have and it stinks.

But Thompson. What's really going on there?

It seems to me that his campain hasn't been noticed because the MSM has gone out of their way to ignore it. Fox News included. I'm suppose to discredit him because he doesn't have "fire in his belly"? WTF? A lot of people say "too little, too late", knowing full well that the "front runners" started much too early. I've read his position papers - and looked into his record. His opinions seem to line up with my own very well, and his record seems to match it. Not all of his votes fall exactly where I would like, but by and large he's where I think he should be. And he seems to be able to explain some problematic positions with out making excuses.

I loved how he handled the "show of hands" question. And the questionare responses that have come out recently have been spot on. Most valued possession? Trophy wife. That works at soo many different levels. Martian Sheen, Best Democratic President. Even better. Even if those answers were scripted for him (which I doubt) pulling them off as well as he did took stones.

I think the MSM may actually be afraid of this guy. And when I think about that, it seesm obvious why. Rush is fond of saying that "Conservativism Works, Every Time It's Tried". I think Fred is running a real campaign based on real conservative ideals. And I think he's doing it because he believes in them.

The only area I see him as a little weak is Immigration. His position paper is spot on, but his record doesn't quite match it. But realistically, a lot of people didn't fully appreciate the situation ten or even five years ago. I remember a time when "doing the work Americans won't" actually made some sort of sense to me. I thought Bill O'Reilly was nuts the first time I heard him say something about militarizing the border - it was before 9/11 and I was stationed overseas; I just didn't understand the full extent of the problem.

So, right now -- I'm supporting Fred. And this is the first time this campaign season I felt like I could support anyone.

In fact, I'd like to see Thompson/Hunter '08. (And, as I've noted elsewhere, Tancredo for DHS; Bolton for SECSTATE.)

Posted by: fretless at December 18, 2007 10:37 PM (CRgse)

24 "Among likely voters, Thompson and Giuliani have -zero- in the 18-29 crowd? Not even 0.1? Absolute Freaking Zero?"

Yeah, at least from the (totally biased) sample of blogland, this seems totally wrong.

Your digging got a followup from Cost, btw -- did you see that?

Posted by: someone at December 18, 2007 10:50 PM (/2DHm)

25 Eh, polls, schmolls.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at December 18, 2007 10:56 PM (hfyfI)

26 I'm with fretless on Fred. Although, I still think both sides are wrong on immigration. The true root of the problem with immigration is the quota system. It's a market distortion that leads, as all market distortions do, to nominal enforcement and black markets.

Posted by: The Band at December 18, 2007 11:04 PM (nHRdf)

27 3rd is actually a good place to be, now that Romney and Huckabee are exchanging low blows.

Posted by: otcconan at December 18, 2007 11:28 PM (T7NFk)

Your digging got a followup from Cost, btw -- did you see that?

Yup, I did, Jay wrote me back to let me know And yeah, I'm "Paul from NJ". Unfortunately. Heh. Like my vote even -matters- here, sigh. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary won the Republican primary here via write-ins.

Qwinn

Posted by: Qwinn at December 18, 2007 11:29 PM (/FDfc)

29 I was exchanging e-mails with a friend of mine in Iowa today. I asked who she was considering caucusing for. She said she liked what she's heard about Huckabee. After a few nicely worded lines about some of the more interesting details about Huck that I have learned, mainly from the people here (Thanks Slublog), she first expressed surprise that she hadn't heard about any of what I told her in the news and then said that there was no way she could cast her vote for him.

Hopefully, she will share what we discussed with her friends. Either way, sorry, Huck, you lost one today.

If only more people could have the same opportunity I had today.

Posted by: wiserbud at December 19, 2007 01:00 AM (EW49d)

30 Not that Giuliani is banking on sunny funny Iowa, but it sounds like he has headroom. Zero in the 18-29? Odd, that.

After frontrunning awhile, things have been quiet with him. But with coke and hookers and Cayman accounts and AR govs stealing the drapes, security for your mistress seems like a big nothing.

Just keep watching.

Posted by: nichevo at December 19, 2007 05:58 AM (Ak+g8)

"Fox just said that Edwards in now in the lead in Iowa. They're all on crack. The polls, that is."--Posted by: mesablue at December 18, 2007 09:14 PM (KCOdQ)

"I think the MSM may actually be afraid of this guy. And when I think about that, it seems obvious why. Rush is fond of saying that 'Conservativism Works, Every Time It's Tried'. I think Fred is running a real campaign based on real conservative ideals. And I think he's doing it because he believes in them."--Posted by: fretless at December 18, 2007 10:37 PM (CRgse)

YES. Who credibly believes the propaganda gulash that the MSM oriented polls serve the masses?

"Elect Fred Thompson President and Win One for the Gipper." Ronald Reagan, posthumous

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