"If the election were held today..."

CNN/Opinion Research Corp. has a new poll out that should make Mike Huckabee (and really, most of the other Republican candidates) nervous. The poll has several noteworthy conclusions, but should come with a few caveats.

The poll put Republicans Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Rudy Giuliani up against Democrats Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. It was the first time Huckabee has been considered in this type of poll.

Of Republicans, Huckabee, Romney, and Giuliani lose; McCain wins in two of the matchups.

In head-to-head matchups -- the first to include Huckabee -- the former Arkansas governor loses to Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York by 10 percentage points (54 percent to 44 percent), to Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois by 15 points (55 percent to 40 percent) and to former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina by 25 points (60 percent to 35 percent).
[...]
The poll also shows that Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona would do best against leading Democrats. He beats Clinton by 2 percentage points (50 percent to 48 percent), ties Obama (48 percent to 48 percent) and loses to Edwards by a smaller margin (8 points) than the other Republican candidates do.

The surprising finding on the Democratic side is that Edwards does better than Clinton or Obama against the top four Republicans and he's the only one to beat all four of them.

But McCain and Edwards shouldn't get too happy about it. Without more information (it was withheld from CNN's "Complete Poll Results" (PDF)) we cannot tell whether Democrats were overrepresented. Also, the poll is of "registered voters" rather than "likely voters."

On the other hand, the poll is generally in line with Real Clear Politics' tracking of multiple head-to-head polls, in which the Republicans are almost always losing.

The winner in this poll? John McCain, who can continue to say that he's the only electable candidate that will beat Clinton.

The real loser in this poll? Fred Thompson, who wasn't even included.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:22 PM

Comments

1 I think the real losers are people who answer polls.

But that's just my opinion.

Posted by: Merovign at December 11, 2007 02:30 PM (IaYDo)

2 The real loser in this poll? Fred Thompson, who wasn't even included.

Wrong...any Republican included in that poll got an asswhoopin, maybe (just maybe) Thompson didn't fit the narrative.

Posted by: A. Weasel at December 11, 2007 02:38 PM (bqcfE)

What have I been telling you guys for months?

If we want to beat Hillary, we nominate McCain. It's that simple. Hate it or love it. There it is.

Posted by: Rightwingsparkle at December 11, 2007 02:40 PM (5gLS7)

4 I still think these polls are BS. They're trying to psych out the right by making everyone think no one is electable, or Huck is inevitable, etc. At least I hope that's the case.

Posted by: brak at December 11, 2007 02:41 PM (dWjrP)

5 And for those women folk out there, interested in voting for the Huckster:

In August of 1998, Huckabee was one of 131 signatories to a full page USA Today Ad which declared: “I affirm the statement on the family issued by the 1998 Southern Baptist Convention.” What was in the family statement from the SBC? “A wife is to submit herself graciously to the servant leadership of her husband even as the church willingly submits to the headship of Christ.”

Posted by: Tom at December 11, 2007 02:42 PM (1kwK7)

Giuliani and McCain's results are not significantly different, while Romney and Huckabee both lose by double digits.

Posted by: TallDave at December 11, 2007 02:45 PM (oyQH2)

The real loser in this poll? Fred Thompson, who wasn't even included.

"smacks of intolerance"/sarc?

I can understand why McCain has national precedence. He got smacked down hard and admits it publically, that he "gets it now". Did we hear McCain scream "bigots"--protectionists yes, but "bigots" AFTER his bill lost? If he did, I've forgiven and forgotten. As a hero, he deserves respect. We all know exactly who McCain is. We all have personal grounds for whether we'd trust McCain's change of heart. If McCain were to swear on his honor that he'd no longer pander to liberals in order to get concensus, SPECIFICALLY ON BORDERS/ILLEGAL ALIENS, I might take his word on that. I know I'd rather take McCain's word on a promise than any one else other than Fred Thompson perhaps. Whereas, I would not be likely to take the word of Guiliani, Huckabee or Romney if the promise counters their record.

...Just one person's response.

Posted by: St. Paul Plunder at December 11, 2007 02:46 PM (bGDqs)

Tom,

Some of us don't have a problem with that because we understand it. The next part is the kicker though. Men must love their wives "like Christ loves the Church."

Show me a man who loves a woman like that and I will show you a woman who submits herself graciously.

The problem is that both men and women do a lousy job of both, but hey, we are human.

Posted by: Rightwingsparkle at December 11, 2007 02:47 PM (5gLS7)

9 Look it's a CNN poll so the results are bullshit, just like the rest of their coverage.

Posted by: Rich at December 11, 2007 02:58 PM (O5KMh)

10 Show me a man who loves a woman like that and I will show you a woman who submits herself graciously. Bleh

Posted by: John McCains black baby at December 11, 2007 02:59 PM (sgF4t)

11 According to the polls John Kerry is the president. I stopped paying attention right about there.

Posted by: Eleven at December 11, 2007 03:09 PM (7DB+a)

The quote that Tom finds so troubling is derived from the Bible itself- Paul's letter to the Ephesians.

"Wives, submit yourselves unto your own husbands, as unto the Lord" is the King James version of Ephesians 5:22.

I'm not a supporter of Huckabee's presidential campaign, but it shouldn't be that surprising that a Southern Baptist takes the Bible seriously.

Posted by: Matt at December 11, 2007 03:10 PM (ecpMe)

13 Fred! wasn't included because it's not necessary - it's a foregone conclusion that he will hand any Democratic candidate their head on a platter.

Posted by: Alice H at December 11, 2007 03:14 PM (jRtPb)

Wait, the election's today?

Oh, it's not? Well then, this poll is absolutely meaningless. The only poll that means anything is the kind with the levers and the curtains. Everything else is meaningless.

Posted by: Veeshir at December 11, 2007 03:14 PM (zXUuJ)

15 Don't forget that Opinion Research Corp. is now controlled by Camp Hillary:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1766672/posts
What does it tell you if she doesn't want herself polled head-to-head with Teh Fred?

Posted by: quiggs at December 11, 2007 03:23 PM (rXafI)

16 I agree, meaningless poll. What percent of voters have researched these candidates at this point. Not meaningful until closer to election.

Posted by: Susan at December 11, 2007 03:43 PM (IM7BZ)

17 Doesn't that tell you something about dear sweet CNN? That Fred wasn't included?

Posted by: ricpic at December 11, 2007 03:58 PM (gN5X2)

18 If the election were held today, Ron Paul would win because everyone else expects to vote next November.

Posted by: Kasper Hauser at December 11, 2007 04:04 PM (KeOQp)

19 Let me ask you something ....

Have any of you ever been polled on anything? Do you even KNOW anyone who has ever been polled?

I haven't, and I don't. Wonder why that is.

Posted by: Bruce at December 11, 2007 04:29 PM (2q+Ss)

Right now I'm watching men's gymnastics and polling at 100%.

Posted by: Tom at December 11, 2007 04:30 PM (QoR4a)

Oh, no! Not him! Not Fred Thompson! For he is most assuredly our doom...once he's had his cholostomy bag changed, and taken a nice long nap. What ever are we Democrats to do?

....That's a rhetorical question, of course.

Posted by: Beloved Weaver at December 11, 2007 04:33 PM (CNIL7)

Oprah versus Bill:

According a New York Times/CBS News poll released Monday, only 1 percent of Democrats polled reported that Winfrey's endorsement would make them more likely to support Obama, while 14 percent said they would be less likely to vote for the candidate because of Winfrey's support.

Meanwhile, rival Hillary Clinton's biggest celebrity endorser — her husband Bill Clinton — is likely to have more of an impact. The poll suggests 44 percent of Democrats are more likely to support the New York senator because of her famous husband, while only 7 percent are less likely to do so.

In fact, the former president is such a campaign asset that according to the poll, roughly as many Democrats are supporting the New York senator because of her husband as are supporting her because of her experience. Twenty-six percent of Hillary Clinton's supporters name Bill Clinton as the top reason they are backing her, while 23 percent say her own experience is the biggest factor.

*Guess people aren't that concerned about those nasty blowjobs.

P.S. - Rightwingsparkle & Matt - I'm not sure what it is you believe people are NOT understanding when the Huckster says: "A wife is to submit herself graciously to the servant leadership of her husband even as the church willingly submits to the headship of Christ.”

You really think people will vote for someone who doesn't believe in evolution and that a woman should "submit herself" to her husband??

Really???

Posted by: Tom at December 11, 2007 04:40 PM (1kwK7)

23 Bruce,
Maybe if you had a telephone or got out of the house from time to time?

Posted by: Tom at December 11, 2007 04:44 PM (1kwK7)

24 Let me ask you something ....
Have any of you ever been polled on anything?

Well, now I have.

Posted by: sandy burger at December 11, 2007 05:14 PM (Cpse7)

If the election were held today, Ron Paul would win because everyone else expects to vote next November.

Nice one.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at December 11, 2007 05:16 PM (plsiE)

26 Does a Huckabee presidency mean more and better blow jobs from submissive and appreciative wives? Then I'm for it!

Posted by: ricpic at December 11, 2007 05:55 PM (gN5X2)

1 number and 2 words:

2000 exit polls

Posted by: theBman at December 11, 2007 06:06 PM (/vN7m)

28 #20 excellent

Posted by: TMF at December 11, 2007 06:51 PM (KTgUG)

29 Maybe someday, some of you will actually be dating a woman or even married...and you can ask your girlfriend or wife how they feel about "submitting." The Huckster believes in reverse evolution.

Posted by: Tom at December 11, 2007 06:52 PM (1kwK7)

30 ripic: First of all, you have to actually HAVE A WIFE...and your hands don't count. And...during the latest Republican masterdebate: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee made some incorrect and questionable claims about Americans who don't have health insurance, hypothesizing that a third don't have coverage because "the think they're healthy and invincible" – a claim for which we find no support – and that another third are self-insured – which is the definition of all people who don't have health insurance and must pay their own bills. He also understated the number who can't afford insurance. Mitt Romney said the Massachusetts universal health care plan he signed into law as governor didn't include an "employer mandate," but the plan includes a number of employer "requirements" with penalties for noncompliance. He also claimed subsidies for low-income individuals were completely financed by a state fund for care of the uninsured. It's not clear if that will be the case just yet. New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani falsely stated that the performance of K-12 students, including Hispanics, in the country has declined. Actually, it has improved.

Posted by: Tom at December 11, 2007 06:55 PM (1kwK7)

31 Tom is teh smart.
Nobody else could've thought to insult us morons with the "your hand doesn't count" rhetoric.
God, Tom is a genius.
Where does he come up with this stuff?

Posted by: Nom de Blog at December 11, 2007 08:48 PM (wK2cX)

32 Nom, What the fuck are you talking about??

Posted by: Tom at December 11, 2007 11:32 PM (1kwK7)

33 Huckabee Questions Mormons' Belief stumbleupon: Huckabee Questions Mormons' Belief digg: US Works With Sudan Government Suspected Of Aiding Genocide reddit: Huckabee Questions Mormons' Belief del.icio.us: Huckabee Questions Mormons' Belief LIBBY QUAID | December 11, 2007 10:23 PM EST | AP Compare other versions » Compare and versions WASHINGTON — Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee, an ordained Southern Baptist minister, asks in an upcoming article, "Don't Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?" The article, to be published in Sunday's New York Times Magazine, says Huckabee asked the question after saying he believes Mormonism is a religion but doesn't know much about it. His rival Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is a member of the Mormon church, which is known officially as the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The authoritative Encyclopedia of Mormonism, published in 1992, does not refer to Jesus and Satan as brothers. It speaks of Jesus as the son of God and of Satan as a fallen angel, which is a Biblical account. A spokeswoman for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints said Huckabee's question is usually raised by those who wish to smear the Mormon faith rather than clarify doctrine.

Posted by: Tom at December 11, 2007 11:36 PM (1kwK7)

34 THANK GOD ALMIGHTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), will bring H.Res. 847 to the floor today. It will put the House on record stating that Christmas and Christians are important.

Posted by: Tom at December 12, 2007 12:01 AM (1kwK7)

Tom- when you wrote:

"I'm not sure what it is you believe people are NOT understanding when the Huckster says......"

I'm not sure what it is you believe you are trying to say in that statement.

For the record, I don't support Huckabee. I don't think having a clergyman as a candidate is a very good idea. I don't think a "wife submission" plank would be a winning addition to the GOP platform.

Getting back to your original comment, though, about Huck's endorsement of the Southern Baptist position on marriage, you seemed to imply (by my reading anyway) that it was either surprising or scandalous which I found amusing, considering that it seems to be taken directly from the Bible.

Posted by: Matt at December 12, 2007 12:13 AM (yMYo2)

36 Matt, I know where he's getting the quote, but are you saying you support this? "A wife is to submit herself graciously to the servant leadership of her husband even as the church willingly submits to the headship of Christ.” Specifically this part? "...submit herself graciously to the servant leadership of her husband..."

Posted by: Tom at December 12, 2007 01:01 AM (1kwK7)

37 Am I supposed to be shocked by the Huckster's support in the bible belt?

?????????

I'm not.

Posted by: Tom at December 12, 2007 01:05 AM (1kwK7)

38 "ripic (sic): First of all, you have to actually HAVE A WIFE...and your hands don't count."

Gosh, Tom.
Who can know what I meant?
It's so vague.
You are teh smart.

Posted by: Nom de Blog at December 12, 2007 01:30 AM (1tDA2)

Tom, I have a feeling we're talking past each other. Let's put aside the political considerations for a moment since you seem to be asking me about my religious beliefs.

As a Christian, I believe I have to support what the Bible says, even when it is unpopular and even if I don't entirely understand it.

Having said that, I'm not a Southern Baptist and don't feel competent to speak for them (or for Huckabee) as to what they meant by their statement in practical terms.

While I will grant you that the word "submission" is emotionally charged and has very negative connotations in the modern world, keep in mind that it is from a 500 year old English translation of an older text written originally in Greek. The Bible has passages elsewhere calling for the young to "submit" to older people and for all Christians to "submit" to authorities.

The recurring theme is that Christians are supposed to strive to be humble servants in this world (which I obviously most of us fail to do). If someone asks for my shirt, I'm supposed to give him my coat. In that larger context, I think you are drawing attention to only one half of the marriage equation. As Rightwingsparkle pointed out- husbands are supposed to be servants to their wives and families and wives are supposed to be servants to their husbands. It's not quite so inflammatory, in my opinion.

Sorry for the length of the post. All the best, Matt

Posted by: Matt at December 12, 2007 11:43 AM (ecpMe)

40 Matt says: "As a Christian, I believe I have to support what the Bible says, even when it is unpopular and even if I don't entirely understand it."

I appreciate your respect for religion and the bible, Matt, but there is more than one bible and beliefs that run the course of history.

There are at least five major religions worldwide, and for every tenet of your bible that YOU believe, there's another belief held by those who follow another religion and another bible.

Let's just back away from the religion thing for a minute and look at Huckabee's statement in a political sense: I personally don' think it's the kind of thing that will draw women into his political tent, other than, as you say, some of the red states in the southern bible belt.

P.S. NOM - I have no idea what you're talking about...as usual.

Posted by: Tom at December 12, 2007 01:36 PM (1kwK7)

Tom- of course I'm aware that there are many other religions that believe in things differently than I do. From your heavy emphasis on this point though, I'm curious as to what you're trying to say. I'm a voter in a democracy. Am I supposed to not vote pro-life because someone else has a different religious opinion or a different opinion based on ethical, but not religious, reasons? Or is it that people who only hold opinions based on secular or nonreligious reasons should get to make decisions in this country?

But I never brought up imposing my beliefs- political or religious- on anyone in the first place. I thought that I had made it clear that I wasn't supporting "wife submission" as a policy agenda. To be fair to Huckabee, I don't think he is either.

By the way, the very fact that I know there is heated disagreement on social issues is one of the reasons why I'm a conservative in the first place. The best way for people who disagree in a huge country to get along is through federalism- where you let Nevada and Utah decide how they deal with prosititution and gambling- and perhaps abortion someday- for themselves. That's why I'm a Fred supporter (but I would happily vote Rudy if nominated).

Posted by: Matt at December 12, 2007 02:44 PM (ecpMe)

42 Matt,
It sounds like you're basing your vote on religious values, and ifthat's your criteria, I have no problem with it.

I'm personally more interested in what they will do to protect the country from outside influences, grow the economy, protect our civil rights and do what they can to provide reasonably affordable health care to our entire population.

Their religious beliefs are their own, but I certainly don't want them using such believes to create policy or laws that effect those who don't necessarily agree.

Based on many of his comments, I think Huckabee will do exactly that.

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