1 if we won the war, why aren't our troops coming home?  now, and not sometime in the distant future?  let's see, our troops have to stay because, why?  yeah, because we haven't won anything.

2 I'm not certain we can say the war has been won when the opposition hasn't officially surrendered.  I'm not trying to take away from the fantastic progress made in Iraq, just posing the question.  Has the opposition been squashed enough to declare outright victory without the possiblility of it regrouping and attacking after we've turned over the reigns?

3 Our permission from the Iraqi government to even be in the country runs out in 2009. Which is why the Iraqis and US are starting talks to determine the nature of an extension and the future disposition of US forces (about 50k for years). I'm not really sure why Surber is saying that that amounts to victory, as the negotiations (and inevitable drawdown of forces) would take place whether we were winning right now or not. (which we are right now, to be clear)

4 There is spin and there is spin.

5

There will always be some level of violence in Iraq, either of a sectarian or a jihadi variety

THe goal was always to significantly hamper the ability of the terrorists to cause havoc and casualties, and to assist the moderate Iraqis in building a power sharing gov't that the various sects could live with and that would not serve as a surrogate for the maniacal mullahs.

I think we are probably close to acheiving those goals

6 As I've said before, I'm not sure that Bush's change-of-course and Petraeus' new strategy won the war, so much as it helped take advantage of trends already underway.

Whoa, bullshit, arsehole. Let's get the BS flag uncovered, and run it up the pole so I can pop a crisp salute. Listen, I understand that the idiots to the left of Marx believe that we were just "lucky" that the demographic trends, yadda, yadda, yadda. But guess what? We made those trends. We broke them down, step by step by little bitty step.

These mincy steps around the wagon, this modesty is no such thing. People paid for it in blood. We did the only two things that count in an insurgency: separate the people from the fighters and crush the fighters with overwhelming force.

Did the Iraqis have something to do with it? Um, yeah, just like the US Army had something to do with Patton's lightning charges or the Roman legionnairies did for Scipio Africanus. But soldiers do not win wars, generals do. Without the General, victory is unattainable, and you need a fantastic man to even hope for victory. The Iraqis would have surrendered to the fanatics, like, um, f$cking the entire Middle East has. Or Fallujah did.

But this was OUR victory. Those trends wouldn't have lasted without our firepower, our troops, our initiatives, our men giving EVERYTHING they ever had to the mission. Our victory.

Call it like it is.

7 "...our troops' amazing heroism in darker times, actually wore out the enemy and set the table for the victories..."

Of course they did. Our troops didn't just wear them out. Our heroes wore them out, the terrorists quit or died, then the next batch came in, our heroes wore them out, the terrorists quit or died, etc. repeat as necessary.

Our fighters wore out wave after wave of 'em - over years of time.

AQ must truly have felt like they were butting their heads against a solid steel wall. 'Cause they were!

I believe that it has finally sunk into their tiny little skulls that they cannot wear our guys down. Our guys don't wear down! That must be horribly demoralizing for th terrorists to know  - that they are doomed to failure.

Our soldiers are gods gift to this country - and the planet!

8 steve sturm, don't make me pull out the troops in Germany comparison!

Frankly I think America is going to have some troops in Iraq, even when it is the Germany and S. Korea of the ME. just makes sense to have a presence there. Better there than Saudi Arabia or Yemen.

9

There will always be violence, correct. The "end state" of stability that you talk about is dependent on security and political events reaching a tipping point of momentum where the overall security and the Iraqi government in its present form (not including the peaceful transfer of authority via elections) are guauranteed. At this point, I'd say it's very possible, maybe even more likely than not. If I were wagering, I'd lean towards putting money on it.

But the security gains will solidify with political accomodation between provincial and national players (read: effective distribution of oil wealth and some degree of official power-sharing), and these political gains have not happened yet and are current problems, though they are in fitful, frustrating progress.

And as long as America stays as a broker, which it looks like will happen whether a D or R is CinC, I'd say victory, as defined above, is attainable. But not assured, not yet.

Which is why these rushes to declare victory are so headscratching, as, when any setback is encountered in the near future (say, reinvigoration of Iran's efforts to destabilize), such statements will be spun as folly by war opponents. Better to be realistic and sober and really hammer home why a stable Iraq is important and now actually obtainable, rather than asserting a "victory," "last throes" meme.

10 billhedrick: we're not looking to keep troops in Iraq to protect them from invasion from Turkey or Iran, such as was the case with Europe and the Soviets, they're being kept to protect the Iraqis from each other, akin to our having troops in Germany to keep the Germans from killing one another, which obviously wasn't the case.

by the way, I wouldn't have any problem if we kept troops in Iraq in order to have them pre-positioned in case Bush does something with Iran, or to have them on call to go after terrorists in other neighboring countries, but again, that isn't why they're being kept there.

11 Haha. 
I am sure all those stationed in the middle east are whooping it up right now.
We won!  It's over!  Don Surber declares victory in Iraq! And some guy with a 4 year lag on quirky internet videos named Ace concurs but with qualifications! Let's head on home! Meet me at Yankee Doodles for jell-o shots!

Don't get me wrong I like this shit bubbling all around the wingnut web ring, it pushes your sad little fucking dingy further out to sea. 

The fact that this war has always been about the Republican domestic political agenda is writ large here. 

You are stuck with this nightmare your sick ass political representatives foisted on the country no matter what kind of bullshit you spin.

12 There are two wars in Iraq.  We have won the first, against the Baathists, Al Qaeda and affiliated Sunni groups.

The second war, against the Iranian supported Shia party militias who control large parts of southern Iraq, and their allies in the forces of elected Iraqi government which we trained and equipped, hasn't even begun to be fought.

13

your sick ass political representatives

You mean like Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden and John Kerry?

14 tommy, your expertise in Iraq is based on what? Do you read the reports from Michael Yon or even the NY Times (a neo-con rag)?

Steve, good points, but I am thinking post war, the troops we have there in 2012 will be basically what you envision. Basically standard bases, for easy police work through out the ME

15

Agree with Bill's comments - no point declaring victory, and then have every single future attack, no matter how ineffective slammed in our faces.  Of course, if we keep saying that we're making progress without ever saying we won, then the MSM will spin that too ('cause lets face it, we said that in the past when we were at best marking time).

It seems to me that there were several necessary ingridients for the turn-around:

1) Attrition among AQ forces from years of battling our guys.

2) AQ over-playing its hand and pissing off the local population.

3) Changes in US strategy - primarily working with the tribes and moving our guys out of the big camps and into squad and platoon houses out among the population.  Thank General Petreaus for this.

4) The program for training the Iraqi military finally bearing fruit in a big way - especially the (re-)training of NCOs and company and field grade officers.  You cannot do this overnight - and it was Petreaus wearing his previous cap who put this into place.

5) Bush finally listening  to guys like McCain and Lieberman (and presumably Gates and the generals) and authorizing the surge of troops

Of these all were, I think necessary elements - though one might argue that the last was not as necessary as the others.

16 Bill INDC,why are you so scared to declare victory? You've been there. You know that the more that the population believe we have won and that the terrorists have lost the more they will get with the program.  They follow the big dog and big talker in the Middle East.  We are in a position to declare victory based on the present facts on the ground and we need to take it and run with it.

17 The problem with declaring victory is knowing what damn war we are fighting. Desert Storm, Desert Fox, OIF and then the insurgency. Will there be another war? Yeppers, because our enemies are still out there; Iranians, Syrians, Palestinians, Pakistani, Chechyan, Uzbeki terrorists, plus Saudi Arabia and Eritrea and Somalia, and the Sudan, and on and on.

The Napoleonic wars lasted for 20 years and were in 14 separate actions, some like the Swedish-Russian war that Napoleon didn't take part of, and some 70+ major battles, and decided the face of Europe. We are deciding the face of the Middle East. This is an Epochal War. Let the old war--which we won--go away, so we can fight the new one.

18

Bill INDC,why are you so scared to declare victory? You've been there.

Because I've been there, and seen how corrupt and broken some Iraqi logistical and reconstruction efforts/systems are, for examples. I'm also doing a piece on how American advisors interact with the national government on reconciliation and legislation.

Victory = sustainability without American training wheels.

Right now, American administration/advisorship and money is rebuilding provinces as well as organizing the local neighborhood watches. This oversight and funding is required for the new security but is not sustainable in its present form, and the Iraqi feds are dragging feet in taking up the slack.

That's not at all saying they won't, but it's pivotal and it hasn't happened to a significant enough degree yet.

We are in a position to declare victory based on the present facts on the ground and we need to take it and run with it.

I'd say we are in a position to capitalize on recent gains by restating our committment to a stable Iraq and pressing our current advantages, while beating down the significant challenges which remain. The Sunni nationalists are fairly patient and realistic about this, I think, but they will not wait forever to be reintegrated into larger Iraqi society. Iran has not given up on Iraq, and neither has al Qaeda, despite leadership attrition and failure to resupply from comfortable bases in Pakistan.

3 months of positive trends, no matter how positive, do not constitute victory.

19

Steve Sturm:  If you think that we kept troops in Germany ONLY to prevent the Soviets from invading Europe, then you are pretty naive.  Sure, that was one reason, but we learned the lessons from WWII that we didn't learn from WWI:  1.  The Europeans can't keep from killing themselves by the tens of millions now that they have the technology to do so, so we have to stay there with a permanent troop presence, AND 2., no way is Germany ever going to be completely empty of foreign troops, because we don't ever want them to rise again as a threat to European peace, as they did in 1870, 1914, and 1939.  The same holds true for Iraq.  Now that "Bush's War" is a victory, our troops will stay there to make sure that Iraq stays non-aggressive with its neighbors, to keep the Turks out of northern Iraq, to keep our military close to Iran in order to keep those lunatics from launching any interesting ventures. 

Tommy:  "The fact that this war has always been about the Republican domestic political agenda is writ large here."  That's the single fucking dumbest thing I've ever seen written in a blog comment section.  Did you have your own cock in your mouth as you typed it, and hence not thinking straight?  Fucking idiot.  We're in the Iraq war because, what?  The economy sucks so bad?  Because Harriet Miers wasn't confirmed?  Social Security hasn't been reformed?  Because it's easier to win elections in a landslide when a foreign war isn't going well for a couple of years?  Get your head out of your ass before you comment next time, shit-for-brains.

 

20 The fact that this war has always been about the Republican domestic political agenda is writ large here.

Well, if it's writ so durn tootin large, please rattle off a few chapters on how trying to drain the Islamist swamp is "about" the domestic, "compassionate conservatism" agenda.

No really, tell me all about it. I must know The Fact.

Cordially...

21 BillyH I guess you haven't been noticing but expertise on anything only gets in the way here. 

Bill INDC,why are you so scared to declare victory?

Yes Bill why so timid?  Don Surber has already informed the greater world community that we have won. Why so shy?  Embrace this victory, don't be ashamed. 

You know that the more that the population believe we have won and that the terrorists have lost the more they will get with the program.  They follow the big dog and big talker in the Middle East.  We are in a position to declare victory based on the present facts on the ground and we need to take it and run with it.

i.e. I am ready to move on to more serious political issues like chasing out the mexicans.

Poly this is some really serious analysis you should think about doing this professionally or at least benefiting  a think tank or two with your lucid mind magic.  Take your own sterling advice, don't be afraid to declare victory!

Things are in a lull right now and it would be great if the civilians in Iraq could get to some sort of normalcy in the upcoming years, but all this cya political bullshit is serving only your needs which is all it was about in the first place. 

22

  "The fact that this war has always been about the Republican domestic political agenda is writ large here." 

 

What's funny is tommy has no idea what this is even supposed to mean. It's just a slogan. Though it would be interesting to find out why the AUMF regarding Iraq passed Congress by larger margin's than the AUMF for Desert Storm did if it's all about the Republicans. Remember, little Tommy Daschle was the Senate leader at the time...

 

23 Remember, little Tommy Daschle was the Senate leader at the time..

Heeeeyyyy, wait a minute here.....  Former Senator Daschle is no longer in the senate.....tommy-boy seems to have a ton of time on his hands to spout his stupid slogans and talking points.....

Senator Daschle, is that you?

24 Willpower is a big deal.

One thing I've seen over and over again in commentaries on Iraq from people I respect is that the enemy had to have been shaken when, after the big democratic congressional victories in Nov 2006, Bush responded by INCREASING US troop levels. The bad guys thought they had won and now saw that it was going to get even harder on them.

25 Sharkman wins.  tommy has a dick in his mouth.

26 Harry Reid's dick.  Or, Nancy Pelosi's.

27

I don't know if this war is "won" or not, but a pattern is emerging.

We won WWII and our troops are still in Germany and Japan.

We won the Korean War and our troops are still in Korea.

Hopefully we will win this war and our troops will be in Iraq for a long time.

This is a pattern that works. Germany and Japan could rebuild stable societies because the presence of our troops kept them in line and gave them a chance to get on with building an economy and a society rather than putting all their energies in to war and preparation for war. The Koreans did the same thing because they knew that our troops guaranteed that they would be defended from the North. I hope the same thing works for Iraq. I hope that when the Iraqis - all of them - see what they can do for themselves without a dictator, or a war, or tribal feuds, they will decide they like democracy and will go on to something much better than they've ever had before.

It's the traditional Arab world's worst nightmare.

28 BTW - to clarify, my "spin" comment was directed at the idea that the war is won based on a negotiation of the Iraq-US security agreement, which has been slated to take place all along.

29 Ace's comments on why we are "winning" - the AQI backlash and local security efforts abetted by the Surge and US tactical change - are pretty much on target as the main factors.

30 OK, the 'tard and isuc have weighed in with their idiocy, so where's Munch for the trifecta?

31

OK, the 'tard and isuc have weighed in with their idiocy, so where's Munch for the trifecta?

Probably still shaking the stamp-vending machine in the lobby waiting for his Snickers bar to drop out.

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