Clinton is Bleeding

Columnist James Pinkerton has an interesting article premised on the idea that Clinton's support for drivers licenses for illegals is "a slow hemorrhaging" that will finish her off in the general even as it's ignored during the primaries.

He analogizes her situation to that of Michael Dukakis in 1988. Dukakis was way out ahead of Bush 41 in the national polls after having shrugged off attacks from then-Senator Al Gore on the topic of prison furloughs during the primary.

I'll cut to the chase, but you should read it all:

Now fast-forward to 2007. I'm long out of partisan campaign politics, but Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton reminds me a lot of Dukakis. As he was two decades ago, she's from a big state, has a lot of money, is ahead in the polls - and she's been grievously injured. This time, the issue isn't prison furloughs, but driver's licenses for illegal immigrants in her "home" state of New York. Clinton has broadly defended Gov. Eliot Spitzer's unpopular plan, even as most New Yorkers have reviled it.
During the Philadelphia debate of Democratic hopefuls on Oct. 30, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, aiming from way back in the Democratic pack, took a stab at Clinton. Her position was "troublesome," he said, adding, "I think the American people are reacting to it."
Yes, they are, but not inside the "nominating wing" of the Democratic Party, which doesn't worry about illegal immigration. So just as Gore failed to get anywhere in criticizing Dukakis 20 years ago, Dodd is not destined to get any lift from his Clinton criticism.
But the country, of course, is bigger than a few lefty-dominated presidential primaries and caucuses. If Spitzer can't sell his licenses-for-illegals plan to New Yorkers in 2007, how can Clinton hope to defend that plan to Americans in 2008?

This may explain why she's starting to backpedal.

CROWLEY: If I wrote a story that said: "Absent a broad illegal immigration bill, Hillary Clinton agrees about giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants," is that correct?
CLINTON: No. What I have said is that I support what governors are trying to do. And governors are on the front lines because of the failures to get comprehensive immigration reform.

Video at the second link if you want to subject yourself to both Clinton and Candy Crowley. Masochist.

UPDATE: Moron km points me to this post of his from last week.

I don't think this makes much difference to Democratic primary voters and caucus goers. They probably agree with her. There's a lot they favor when it comes to illegal aliens: sanctuary cities and in-state college tuition, to name a couple.
So for the time being, this is no big deal.
Assuming she gets the nomination, though, it will be a huge deal.

km has more good stuff at the link.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 08:56 PM

Comments

1 Hello, it is a good day to kick back and take in some ribs.

Posted by: stephen Wilson at November 06, 2007 09:06 PM (UFPRs)

2 One can only hope it's true. No wonder all the other Dem debates have stayed away from any immigration questions.

Posted by: Dudley Smith at November 06, 2007 09:07 PM (uVCZA)

3 You would think a hysterectomy would solve that pesky problem.

Posted by: JavaJoe at November 06, 2007 09:09 PM (Am6n/)

4 Hehehe: My tabbed browser thingy has the title of that Pinkerton article truncated as "Hillary gives Republicans lice ..."

Posted by: Cuffy Meigs at November 06, 2007 09:12 PM (uOvAE)

5 I think, by now, the vast majority of voters also understand that, "comprehensive immigration reform" is code for "amnesty".

Posted by: MCPO Airdale at November 06, 2007 09:22 PM (p0Yi7)

6 Oh great, get rid of Hillary, an obvious clench jawed, glittering eyed maniac and let the Dems replace her with someone less obviously insane.

Posted by: BlacquesJacquesShellacques at November 06, 2007 09:28 PM (EDf7b)

7 >>Clinton is Bleeding

That could be the worst mental image I have ever had.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2007 09:28 PM (t+mja)

8 Aw, Jack, you know I do it on purpose.

Posted by: John Edwards at November 06, 2007 09:31 PM (1Ug6U)

9 Yeah, Jack Edwards is me.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at November 06, 2007 09:31 PM (1Ug6U)

10 Thank yooooou, Jack.

Posted by: Cuffy Meigs at November 06, 2007 09:32 PM (uOvAE)

11 Or John. Either one.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at November 06, 2007 09:32 PM (1Ug6U)

12 Eh. I wrote that last week.

Posted by: km at November 06, 2007 09:41 PM (ZeIkZ)

here's km's link.

Posted by: Cuffy Meigs at November 06, 2007 09:47 PM (uOvAE)

14 I updated the post, km. I like yours.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at November 06, 2007 09:49 PM (1Ug6U)

I thought it said "Clinton is Breeding"

Posted by: John Galt at November 06, 2007 09:55 PM (8OFmt)

I say the bitch wins

The Dems are gonna milk the rampant, MSM fueled Bush-hate for all its worth

Americans are THAT dumb

Posted by: TMF at November 06, 2007 09:55 PM (+Ac3z)

17 I'm the optimist here. I don't think Hillary! is inevitable....I think she can beat Romney though, which is why I don't support him in the primaries. I think pretty much any other GOP candidate with a shot of gaining the nomination beats her easily. For me that's Fred! or even Rudy. I'd worry that she could beat McCain, but I don't think McCain can get the nomination.

Posted by: funky chicken at November 06, 2007 10:07 PM (I+jPP)

18 So she supports what the governor is trying to do but she doesn't support what he's doing. At least not necessarily. But she doesn't disagree with it either and she isn't going to offer any concrete objection. Curse that right wing noise machine for holding her feet to the fire like this!

I think the analysis is wrong. Forcing Hillary to commit to an objection would hurt her with the moonbats in the nomination process and forcing her to say she has none would hurt her later in the general. But that's not happening and it isn't likely to happen. She can afford to weasel now and still get the nomination. Once she's nominated she's free to triangulate at will.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 06, 2007 10:08 PM (Z3AmO)

19 I agree that this particular issue won't hurt her in the primaries, but she's not radical enough to win the cauci and she's annoyed and infuriated the radical leftists enough I don't think she can win the primaries. I honestly don't see her or Giuliani in the general election except maybe as VP candidates.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2007 10:10 PM (hfyfI)

20 The Dean bubble burst last time and the radical base sucked it up for Kerry because he was electable. I'm betting they will come home to momma and console themselves that (1) a woman pres would be an enlightened first and (2) it drives the conservatives nuts.

I could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet money that I am.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 06, 2007 10:17 PM (Z3AmO)

21 There's a heck of a lot of people who would vote for Hillary even if she clubbed Toni Morrison to death on live television. And there's a heck of a lot of people who wouldn't vote for her even if she had their children wired to hand grenades.

Which means this election is going to be decided by a few hundred thousand people who are either too oblivious to pay attention to politics or too wishy-washy to actually make up their minds about anything.

The question is whether more of those people will fall in line obediently and elect The First Woman President Of Anyplace, Ever -- or whether, in the privacy of the voting booth, they'll decide that she's kind of creepy and shifty-looking and that the country could do worse than some random white guy in a nice suit.

Right now, I'm getting the feeling that it's the latter. It's entirely subjective, mind, but it's interesting to me that Hillary's supporters seem far less enthusiastic than, say, Ron Paul's. Sure, the Lefties will vote for her -- but nobody really likes her. I'm getting a sense that people are tired of the same Student Body President campaign politics we've been suffering under since the election of 1992 and that maybe it's time to actually put some adults in charge of the country.

Posted by: Trimegistus at November 06, 2007 10:19 PM (pNbbN)

22 Depends on what skeletons are in the closets and what Team Clinton's investigators have found out about them. HRC has been planning this for a very long time. I expect an unusually nasty campaign.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 06, 2007 10:22 PM (Z3AmO)

23 Thankfully for us, the left still doesn't get it on immigration. Their attack on Hill at the debate wasn't over her position on licenses. It was over the fact that she talked out of both sides of her mouth. You can get some mileage out of that, but not much, because eventually she's smart enough to talk out of only one side of her mouth. So pretty soon, they'll all be back to supporting drivers licenses (and amnesty) for illegals - and 75 percent of the public will be opposed to them.

Posted by: Ted K. at November 06, 2007 10:25 PM (LMcFl)

24 I wouldn't be so sure that this won't hurt Hillary in the primaries.

Poll: 77% oppose illegals' licenses

http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/
20071106/NATION/111050098/1001

That's 77% of all voters not Republican voters. Not all Dems are as batshit crazy as the nutroots and there are a lot of union jobs being threatened by illegals. Don't believe the hype that all Dems want to open the borders to everyone. Not all Dems are moonbats. It wasn't Republicans who defeated Spitzer in NY.

I have never been particulary worried about Hillary. I think either of the two top candiates, Rudy or Mitt will run circles around her. Even Fredo could probably give her a run if he gets an adrenaline implant. And if you think she will come out with the dirt then you are discounting the dirt accumulated against her during her 8 years in the WH and her years in Arkansas.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2007 10:37 PM (t+mja)

25 Even so, I wouldn't underestimate the Billary. That's what they did in '92 when it ran as a man.

Posted by: RicardoVerde at November 06, 2007 10:46 PM (r9DD+)

26 You know the Dem constituency that really doesn't like comprehensive immigration reform? Yup.

Posted by: Cuffy Meigs at November 06, 2007 10:47 PM (uOvAE)

27 It wasn't Republicans who defeated Spitzer in NY.

Excuse me? Last I heard he's going through with a tiered plan and it was only DHS that got that much out of him.

As for the Clintons drowning in their own dirt, it hasn't happened yet. I'll go on the record and predict it never will. The attacks will come from 527's most likely, they will be unfair and devastating to any Republican with anything to hide, and HRC's polling will go up if she gets attacked in kind. I'd love to see something different but I don't think we will.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 06, 2007 10:53 PM (Z3AmO)

Bill Clinton will torpedo Hillary! at just the perfect time. No way he lets her be Prez and he's First Lady. Plus, he hates her guts.

The Hil-Thing is figuring that all she really needs is the nomination, then her Machine will make her President. She has no clue how wrong she is. The American People, enjoying the victory in Iraq, will never go for her phony, slimy circus act. She is just too creepy; people sense it. It is like the instinctive aversion to reptiles.

Posted by: eman at November 06, 2007 10:57 PM (NPwKI)

29 >>Excuse me? Last I heard he's going through with a tiered plan and it was only DHS that got that much out of him.

Well then you heard wrong. He is going through with a tiered plan but DHS is not supporting giving drivers licenses to illegals but there is nothing they can do about it.

>>Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he was not happy that New York intended to issue IDs to illegal immigrants. But he said there was nothing he could do to stop it: "I don't endorse giving licenses to people who are not here legally, but federal law does allow states to make that choice."

>>"Besides being a massive defeat for the governor, I can't imagine many - if any - illegal immigrants coming forward to get the driver's licenses, because they'd basically be labeled as illegal," said New York Rep. Peter T. King, the top Republican on the House Homeland Security Committee.

Spitzer wanted to give illegals the same license as citizens but bi-partisan opposition caused him to back down. I will go on record as agreeing with Peter King, not many illegals are going to come out of the shadows to get an ID that clearly identifies them as illegal.

There has only been one election where the Clinton dirt was an issue, Bill's second term. In that race he had to face the dynamo that is Bob Dole. Even then, if that jug eared martian from Texas hadn't syphoned off 8% of the vote, he might not have won. And for all his faults Bill has one thing Hill well never have, charisma. Lots of people love him. Hill is a manufactured product and as we have already seen, she cracks very easily with criticism.

Nope, its gonna be ugly and Hill is going to take her share of inbound. The gender card won't save her.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2007 11:15 PM (t+mja)

30 So she supports what the governor is trying to do but she doesn't support what he's doing. At least not necessarily. But she doesn't disagree with it either and she isn't going to offer any concrete objection.

That's about it. With each passing day, Her Thighness is sounding more and more Kerry-esque.

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 06, 2007 11:15 PM (JpJT3)

31 Last I heard he's going through with a tiered plan and it was only DHS that got that much out of him.

Well then you heard wrong. He is going through with a tiered plan but DHS is not supporting giving drivers licenses to illegals but there is nothing they can do about it.

Maybe. Maybe not. I didn't hear about any bipartisan coalition "defeating" the dude. All I heard was DHS negotiated him down to the tiered plan:

>>The Bush administration and New York agreed Saturday on a compromise creating a more secure driver�s license for U.S. citizens and allowing illegal immigrants to get a version.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21501643/

Hill is a manufactured product and as we have already seen, she cracks very easily with criticism.

Nope, its gonna be ugly and Hill is going to take her share of inbound. The gender card won't save her.

I hope you are right, JackStraw. I thought those same qualities would keep her out of the Senate, but I was wrong. I wouldn't mind being wrong this time.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 06, 2007 11:49 PM (Z3AmO)

32 It's going to be very ugly.

There are many, many people who know her, or knew her, that have all sorts of things to say about her conduct. She's a really ugly person, in private. Republicans are chomping at the bit to get this show rolling. Bad stuff is going to come out. I'm sure of it.

Posted by: Nice Deb at November 06, 2007 11:49 PM (iDEOe)

33 I think people in 2000 were taken by surprise by her candidacy for the Senate, and weren't organized to speak out against her.

I believe the high stakes in '08 is motivating people like Kathleen Willey to come forward.

Posted by: Nice Deb at November 06, 2007 11:56 PM (iDEOe)

34 Willey is also saying she believes the Clintons may have had her husband killed. It's already an overplayed had and a ready made boomerang.

We've seen these guys operate before. Remember? I just can't be the only one over 40 in this room.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 07, 2007 12:11 AM (Z3AmO)

Today is the first day of the rest of the month. As far as the Kathleen Willey allegations, if they stick, is that going to go down (oops), er, recorded in the history books as "Willeyfying," like Swiftboating or Borking? If so, I just copyrighted it even though I'm already tired of it.

Also, today is my birthday, and for you political nerds out there, the anniversary of Reagan's 1984 annhilation of Wally and the Beaver.

Posted by: Xenu at November 07, 2007 12:13 AM (5sbpE)

I don't think this makes much difference to Democratic primary voters and caucus goers. They probably agree with her. There's a lot they favor when it comes to illegal aliens: sanctuary cities and in-state college tuition, to name a couple.

The only problem with this analysis is that you're thinking link a conservative. You have to think like a liberal. To a liberal, there's no such thing as an average "Democrat primary voter". There's just victim groups and identity groups. Each of these groups has their own pet grievances and own pet agenda, and to hell with the others.

Two large liberal voting blocs are going to have a big problem with the liberal stance on illegal immigration. Blacks and union workers. Both groups are the most affected by the wage-supressing effects of a large illegal workforce. Also, hate to say it but blacks are on the whole quite racist against hispanics, just as they've been strongly encouraged by Democrats to be hyper-racist toward whites and everyone else.

In that poll showing 77% of everyone being opposed, that included 68% of Democrats. How hard it hits Hillary only depends on how much play it actually gets during the election and if she's willing to recognize her bleeding at the polls and lie about her position to stem the wound. There's reason to think she won't - her ego is far far too huge to admit to ever taking a wrong position about anything.

Qwinn

Posted by: Qwinn at November 07, 2007 12:13 AM (/FDfc)

There's a heck of a lot of people who would vote for Hillary even if she clubbed Toni Morrison to death on live television.

I would. She deserves it just for that "first black President" idiocy.

Posted by: zetetic at November 07, 2007 12:20 AM (xBAyJ)

38 I get the feeling there's merit to Pinkerton's analysis. It would explain why the campaign is behaving so oddly over what isn't such a big deal with Democrat primary voters. Coming out with that "Politics of Pile On" campaign right after the debate was bad enough, but yesterday Bill Clinton compared criticism of her on the issue with "swift-boating". It reminds me of how Democrats reacted to the Willie Horton ad by accusing Republicans of playing the race card.

Posted by: Bilby at November 07, 2007 01:11 AM (pEt4I)

39 Also, E.J. Dionne had an interesting piece in WaPo the other day:

<i>One poll finding this week that shook Democrats came in a survey conducted by Democracy Corps, a consortium organized by party consultants Stan Greenberg, Al Quinlan and James Carville. It asked voters to pick two from a list of seven problems that explain "why the country is going in the wrong direction."

The survey found that among independent voters, 40 percent -- by far the largest group -- picked this option: "Our borders have been left unprotected and illegal immigration is growing."

By contrast, a lack of action on health care was named by only 24 percent of independents as a core problem, and Iraq by 23 percent.</i>

Posted by: Bilby at November 07, 2007 01:16 AM (pEt4I)

40 We've seen these guys operate before. Remember? I just can't be the only one over 40 in this room.

This time it will be different?

No seriously. I understand what you're saying.

I remember being appalled when Clinton was elected in '92, because I thought that there was enough known about the man's character to disqualify him for president in most people's minds. I went into a funk that lasted for days. I thought it was a pivotal moment for the country, that we could elect such a man. I felt like we were heading in a downward spiral. Maybe I was right.

Still, like Jackstraw says, Hillary doesn't have any of the charm that Bill has, but she has all of the baggage and more. People sense her phoniness.

If the country elects that evil witch, damn....

Posted by: Nice Deb at November 07, 2007 01:30 AM (iDEOe)

41 19 I honestly don't see her or Giuliani in the general election except maybe as VP candidates.

hahahahaa.. i'm sorry, but that is possibly the worst political analysis i've read this week...

Posted by: Terry at November 07, 2007 01:41 AM (nphBx)

I think for both Giuliani and Hillary, whether or not they win the primaries depends precisely on how quickly other candidates drop out of their races.

If, for example, Hunter dropped his bid in order to run as Fred's VP, I think that combination would pull enough conservatives that Fred could beat Rudy. The only reason Rudy is winning is because the vote against him is split so many different ways. Hopefully enough of the third-placers realize they're not going anywhere and drop out soon enough to not spoil the race in his favor.

Qwinn

Posted by: Qwinn at November 07, 2007 01:55 AM (/FDfc)

43 Terry: get back to me in six months on that.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 07, 2007 02:51 AM (hfyfI)

44 Any issue that polls so clearly as to what the "murrkin' (sp?) people think about a subject will mean a certain "revising and reconsidering" of the Hildebeasts stance. This is what really bothers me about the Clinturds, do the they actually believe in something other than saying anything to get elected and grasp the reins of power? Love or hate W - he does have some convictions.

Posted by: doc at November 07, 2007 03:23 AM (fZJcQ)

45 If you are a young ambitious Democrat, Hillary is not your answer. Her cronies are already picked. At best you'd be fetching hummus for Huma. If that. Nope. Dem rivals want a piece of the action. So the dirt will fly (already John Edwards is crossing over to the right side of Shrillary for the Illegal Aliens Drivers License deal). I don't see Shrillary winning the nomination at this point ... IF as I expect the Huma stuff comes out. To many people would like to serve in the Obama the Messiah Administration. Doing important stuff instead of cleaning up the mess on the Oval Office rug. Don't underestimate the patronage angle -- Hillary and the media have less control than they think. All it takes is one Obama staffer who's defected from team Hillary to dish dirt to a willing tabloid reporter. Bill won in 92 because Bush the Elder was disconnected and tired. Bush the Lesser ain't running, and slickness only carries you so far. Shrillary isn't slick anyway, and turns off most men. More likely it's another 1980, with Ron Paulnuts as the Anderson guys who drew off the anti-Reagan vote, and Hillary as Jimmy Carter Part Deux.

Posted by: Jim Rockford at November 07, 2007 04:38 AM (4878o)

46 Can you spell V-O-T-E F-R-A-U-D?

National Voter Registration Act a/k/a Moter-Voter Law

http://www.usdoj.gov/crt/voting/nvra/activ_nvra.htm

The Republican candidates should hammer this every chance they get..."As a supporter of voter fraud, Senator Clinton...."

Posted by: Horatio at November 07, 2007 09:14 AM (TV9kz)

47 "Clinton is Bleeding"

I don't mean to be rude, but she stopped that decades ago.

Posted by: Kevin at November 07, 2007 11:38 AM (f0QzP)

48 I think that the most important story that the press is
hiding is the story of Hilliary and her aide, Huma.
This story is now erupting in California e-mails.
Possible lover and a Muslim Chief of Staff who was
trained in Saudi Arabia and that is living too high for her salary.
.

Posted by: Larry Smith at November 09, 2007 02:09 AM (XQCMm)

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