I don’t discount PRC involvement, and I expect that it’s there, somewhere, but I don’t quite see it yet.

In any event, I will have to willingly suspend my sense of disbelief concerning anything Hillary! says.

There might be some problems in the analysis at Hot Air (not that it’s wrong, just might need more information):

As per the WSJ article, each deal was about $1million, and there are 37 (total? still outstanding?) that account for the $40 million.

Next, these deals occurred over a 4-year timeframe.

So, as per Item D, did the Chinese factories really do work on speculation, or were some paid? It seems unlikely that any would/could wait more than 6 months for full payment, certainly not on a single $1million deal. 

Even if each "deal" represents 5 or so sub-contracts, waiting is still a problem, and it makes any criminal activity much harder to cover.

Besides, the 37 deals occur over a 4-year timeframe.

It seems likely that the Chinese were paid for their work. $40million of deals are done, but to what point: "manufacturing", "sales"? It has to be "sales", otherwise the money problem happens much sooner, and with less total money available. Sales should generate $56million, but over 4 years.

Perhaps the $1million-per-deal average just a statistic, and the more recent deals were for very much more money (say $15-$20million). This might account for bounced checks due to insufficient funds and a missing $40milion.

Is $40million really the number? I suppose that it depends on how the deals happened.

Item E means that the investors have lost no money. But the WSJ suggests that they have, and if the Chinese were paid, and perhaps Hsu pocketed a couple of million, then this leaves only the investors to take any losses.

How likely is it that anyone would knowingly pay $40million for Hsu’s services? Getting to be private friends with any public figure should be doable for, what, a $2million fee and $2million in expenses (donations)?

How likely is it that anyone would knowingly take a $40million bath (given the value of $40million today)? Of the players mentioned, my guess is that none will walk away from $40million. Someone has to be seen to pay; a $40million bath is very bad for the reputation.

Back to one of the main (implicit) questions, what "things" do US politicians have or control that are worth $40million, that can be delivered to any private buyer, with no ramifications? The "delivered " and "ramifications" requirements greatly narrow the list.

If $40million really is the correct number, who has $40million of incentive? Not the right people, it seems.

I think there’s still more information to come.