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| Osama Video: Fake?A reader wrote to me that I ought to be looking into this possibility, as that's the job of bloggers. I ignored him because I figured it was a dead end. Maybe not quite dead, though. The Booman Tribute asserts that all contemporaneous, proof-of-recent-life references are made when the video is frozen, with only an audiotrack playing (which is much easier to fake, of course).Osama Bin Laden's widely publicized video address to the American people has a peculiarity that casts serious doubt on its authenticity: the video freezes at about 1 minute and 58 seconds, and motion only resumes again at 12:30. The video then freezes again at 14:02 remains frozen until the end. All references to current events, such as the 62nd anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Japan, and Sarkozy and Brown being the leaders of France and the UK, respectively, occur when the video is frozen! The words spoken when the video is in motion contain no references to contemporary events and could have been (and likely were) made before the U.S. invasion of Iraq.Allah is, bless his skeptical heart, intrigued but cautious, noting that a statement made while the video is flowing about "Democrats' inability to implement your desire to end the war" suggest it's of recent vintage. I'm not altogether sure of that, A-Man. The Democrats were also intent to end the war in 2004 -- John Kerry, anyone? -- when we know Osama was alive, and so it is quite possible bin Laden would make precisely such a reference back then. He has, if I'm not mistaken, made these sorts of references in the past, has he not? About the need for politicians to end the war? The reference to Democrats being unable to end the war may be a reference to their failure in the 2004 elections, not their success after the 2006 elections. So I don't know if that single reference proves he was alive after the November 2006 elections. As a general matter, when someone is doctoring a video, you have to assume there's a reason for the doctoring. What reason could that be? I imagine there's several possibilities, but one that must obviously be considered is, well, the obvious one. That he's dead, and they had to take an old tape of him and stick in current-events references to project the falsehood that he's actually alive at all. Stop the ACLU is following this story and collecting up opinions, and Dan Riehl is interested in the less-juicy implication that he appears very weak, based on his lack of making his typical hand gestures. Interesting. I guess the situation is as it was: People may suspect he's dead, but they have no clear proof he is, and so the most one can say is that he "might be dead." I don't see the current tape changing that; it still seems like he might be dead. It's awfully curious that all of the demonstrable references to recent events occur during freeze-frames. Why should that be, if not to clumsily hide the fact they are bits of new audio layered in to establish proof of life? Comments1
Interesting...
Posted by: Butch at September 09, 2007 04:16 PM (4mUm7) 2
It was hardly a coherent statement. He could have been more specific if he was really giving proof of life ... like mentioning the Acepalooza location ... or suggesting Paris Hilton did too much time ...
Posted by: bill at September 09, 2007 04:21 PM (iza68) 3
Ever since the first attacks at Tora Bora, I've suspected Osama was (in the immortal words of Lew Hayward) a worm feast. Subsequent events have only made my suspicion a near certainty.
Posted by: Guy T. at September 09, 2007 04:26 PM (bgZVA) 4
Has anyone said for sure that it's OBL's voice?
Posted by: harrison at September 09, 2007 04:35 PM (Gv4O0) 5
The last confirmed OBL tape is from October 2004. That was almost three years ago. He could have kicked the bucket anywhere in that time period. The evidence for his being alive now is weak. The references in the new tape are vague enough to merit a great deal of doubt. I believe we will soon see that this tape is a fake. I think OBL is dead and he has been wormfood for about 2 years.
Posted by: eman at September 09, 2007 04:40 PM (F/DIG) 6
I'm reasonably confident that he's dead. As President Bush said a few years ago, I don't see him leading any parades.
Posted by: z ryan at September 09, 2007 04:55 PM (PDeVA) 7
Has anyone said for sure that it's OBL's voice?
According to Allah, 'two U.S. intel officials' say it is, but at this point I'm pretty much not going to believe anything without confirmation from bloggers who deal with this stuff in their day jobs. Posted by: kate q at September 09, 2007 04:58 PM (YRbCe) 8
There’s a Yemini doctor who apparently was at Tora Bora and claims to have met OBL there, and verified that OBL escaped. There’s speculation that OBL is in Chitral, Pakistan (apparently the Pakistani Army does not even go to the area). Looking at a topographic map, this seems possible, as Chitral is on a river that flows not too far from the Tora Bora area and through Kabul. Once some rough terrain is crossed, the rest of the escape is up a river valley to a safe haven. Sounds possible. AP at Hot Air suggests that the slight hand movement around 13:17 suggests that OBL was alive but too weak to do the entire video. In the video OBL looks darker. It could be just the lighting, or maybe makeup, but is there a disease with such a side-effect, perhaps something kidney-related, something that a hepatitis vaccine could have cured (or abstinence prevented)? But perhaps it is a disease that just recently jumped species . . . . . . It looks like OBL has spent the last several years suffering form a long term, fatiguing-to-the-point-of-pain, disease. It would be nice to capture him, before the end, while he is still lucid, Posted by: Arbalest at September 09, 2007 05:00 PM (ijjup) 9
This is what I was saying the last few days at Jawa.
There IS a reason for the video to stop. Its NOT a mistake, or glitz. What that reason is, ie: fake or sickly, is unknown, BUT I noticed that all the current talking points were done while still, so I'm leaning toward old video, with current audio. Now, either that IS OBL with the new stuff, meaning he is too ill to appear on camera, OR its NOT OBL (Voice at least). Remember, the things he was saying while the still was up sound more like Adam Gadahn (or Olberdouche). Either way, it means he's almost irrelevant, and good news for our side! Posted by: JarvisW at September 09, 2007 05:11 PM (faim5) 10
How hard would it have been to get him an iPhone to hold thus concretely validating that he was recently alive? Or the front page of a recent NYT?
Posted by: Purple Avenger at September 09, 2007 05:13 PM (mrNpK) 11
I sense a "Fun Facts about OBL Tapes" post coming.
Posted by: eman at September 09, 2007 05:43 PM (F/DIG) 12
What about the mortgage comments?
Because if he made those three years ago, the dude missed out on making a killing in the real estate market. Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge at September 09, 2007 05:49 PM (JRpJU) Posted by: Bullwinkle at September 09, 2007 06:13 PM (tq6GW) Posted by: zetetic at September 09, 2007 06:39 PM (hTKEE) 15
Frankly, I've always felt that the massive number of references to recent events was forced. As if someone were consiously trying to make it SEEM recent. Trying too hard, perhaps. Posted by: deadrody at September 09, 2007 07:10 PM (h8ssW) 16
I recall a large Taliban Funeral in 2005 that we did not bomb because of the Geneva Conventions.....Was OBL the one dropped in the hole?
Posted by: marvin at September 09, 2007 07:41 PM (rJBLz) 17
<i>I'm not altogether sure of that, A-Man. The Democrats were also intent to end the war in 2004 -- John Kerry, anyone? </i> when was the mention of democrats were elected to end the war made? if during the still shot, okay maybe fake. <i>What about the mortgage comments?</i> yeah, if that was during live video then it's real, that's very recent. Posted by: Joe Cuervo at September 09, 2007 07:51 PM (8s6Iz) 18
here's an interesting website- www.http://mprofaca.cro.net/news0000.html has the osama funeral notice in arabic and french intelligence saying that he's dead.
Posted by: sadly yes at September 09, 2007 08:34 PM (ZOZsh) 19
www.mprofaca.cro.net
Posted by: sadly yes at September 09, 2007 08:36 PM (ZOZsh) 20
oh for fucks sake! copy and paste it into your browsers you lazy sods!
Posted by: sadly yes yes yes at September 09, 2007 08:37 PM (ZOZsh) 21
Sadly yes yes yes needs to say no no no to the bong.
Posted by: LeAnn at September 09, 2007 09:17 PM (eHaWc) 22
First, liver disease could make you "yellow" and given his general skin tone, that could make him darker. Of course, that's if you haven't already come to the conclusion that this is a touched up video.
Most of it could be done with a cheap video program, though it would be rather a pain in the butt to fix a video section to darken and shape the beard (from Stop the ACLU enlarged picture, it looks like you can still see the old gray beard at the bottom), darken the skin (probably largely through adjusting contrast and color of the video) and then keep looping it over and over to get the mouth movements to sync. Frankly, I think that's why the video eventually stops and you see that little hand movement. It's not because there was something wrong with the video when they down loaded it as some have speculated. The images freeze there because the video maker got lazy or was pressed for time to get it out before Petraeus' report to congress. One thing I really noted was his clothes are the same from 2004. I don't think this character is living in the best conditions. I have clothes that don't look that good after three years and I have a washer machine, color safe bleach and a soft water filter. You really think that those robes would look so good, even if they had been packed up, after three years? Let's use common sense here. As for the "authenticity" of bin Laden's voice, there are two possibilities: 1) A good recording program that allows you to sample the voice, input words and come out with whole sentences and paragraphs. Three years ago I was playing with a program that allowed me to speak into a microphone, then I would type the words I wanted (not even necessarily the words I had spoken) and then it would sample syllables to match with the written words. I could create a whole sentence with that and it was commercial and cheap. His words seem too stilted and too monotone. As far as I'm concerned, the video guy could have went cheap on the images and freeze framed it because he spent all his time trying to put together the speech. 2) If, by some bizarre chance the speech is real, which I doubt, the odds are the video is still looped and the only thing bin Laden could or would put together was a voice over. That could be because he was sick and didn't want to appear or because he was not anywhere safe to video. While number one might be harder, I still go for that. As noted, when you go fake, there is a reason and this thing is so faked up its not even funy. Posted by: kat-missouri at September 09, 2007 09:46 PM (io+Si) 23
I am not sure that the last that we knew UBL was alive was 2004 - I don't want to seem Kossy, but the pre-election video (which is what John Kerry blames for his election loss) and this one just seem a little too convenient in their parroting of Lefty tropes. I mean, he dragged out My Pet Goat in 2004, and now he's chiding Democrats for not ending the war? It is almost - almost - as if Karl Rove were feeding him lines. I mean, who "authenticates" these tapes after all? Is there some independent UBL authenticator out there? I think he's been dead since 2001. I think the government thinks he is, too, but we don't have any proof either way. But there is a utility in the ambiguity - imagine the outcome had we proof of death in 2001 - there would still be a global war on terror to be fought, but the American people would have declared mission accomplished. If I thought that our intelligence community had any worth these days, I'd say we were faking the tapes, and by giving UBL ridiculous lines, trying to make him seem silly. Almost - almost - into Kos territory, an invented bogey man to keep people scared. But more likely, the terrorists keep faking it, trying to stay relevant, and we just promote the ambiguity.
Posted by: blaster at September 09, 2007 09:52 PM (lfFUo) 24
I think blaster nails it.
Posted by: Mark in Portland at September 09, 2007 11:52 PM (kFHYM) 25
Look- there's only one reason the 'evil genius' and 'terrorist mastermind' can't sit in front of a video camera, hold up yesterday's Tehran Times or whatever and speak off the cuff about current events- because he's dead. Posted by: Barry in CO at September 10, 2007 04:18 AM (kKjaJ) 26
thank you Barry- 6 years later and they can't figure out a simple proof of life image. Evil genius my ass- deader than hell Posted by: jjshaka at September 10, 2007 08:59 AM (QbxSU) 27
I'm relevant!
Posted by: stain on cave wall at September 10, 2007 09:02 AM (0rl7n) 28
As the reader who suggested that you should be investigating the authenticity of this tape, I'm at least glad that you have posted your concerns and acknowledging that there is some question about its validity (I note that Instapundit has also linked to Booman today.) Look ... if this tape was put out by Reuters, and it contained comments that made Republicans look bad (comments oh, I don't know, about the extremely wide stances Republicans make when peeking into your bathroom stall), then I think the top bloggers would be looking at this tape a lot more critically. I've been a staunch supporter of both the wars. But I'm not a sucker. If there are "senior intelligence agents" saying that this is bin Laden speaking, then I want to know what the names of these "senior intelligence agents" are, and if you don't want to tell me what their names are, because they refuse to say publically that it's bin Laden, then I just don't fucking trust you. We're in a war. I find it incredible that the entire media apparatus of the United States cannot find a government official willing to ... on the record ... tell the people of the United States whether this audio of the MOST WANTED PERSON on the planet is in fact his. It's journalistic malpractice. Journalists jobs are to get people on the record to comment on events. That's their fucking job. Their job is not to find two sources willing to say something off the record. If that's the job of a journalist, I have two sources who are willing to say just about fucking anything I want them to say. And the job of the blogosphere is to make sure the fucking MSM does its job. That the MSM doesn't pass along the propoganda of our enemies if it can be reasonably ascertained that the propoganda has been faked. I encourage you to LOOK at the video. It's spliced in several places, and as you pointed out, much of the alleged audio of bin Laden appears over a still frame. It's not even Reuters quality fakery. I'm all for living the AOS Lifestyle. Save that for after work. I come to your site, as thousands of others do, because mixed in with the great humor is a serious message: Don't try to fucking pull shit with us. We're smarter than that. Posted by: notalawyer at September 10, 2007 12:31 PM (oW3Ix) 29
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