47% of Americans Believe We're Making Progress In Iraq

Which corresponds neatly to the 47% approval for Gen. Petraeus. 49% of Americans don't think we're making progress.

It's getting big buzz that a "majority" of Americans don't "trust" Petraeus' report, but what was the actual question?

53 percent of people polled said they suspect that the military assessment of the situation will try to make it sound better than it actually is. Forty-three percent said they do trust the report.

I'm not sure if it's fair to say 53% don't trust the report because they suspect the military will try to spin the situation as better than it really is. Quite frankly, I suspect the military might do that -- come on, play up good news, play down bad news, emphasize the positive? -- and yet I still "trust" the report. Maybe I'll discount it by 10% or so.

I'm not sure that "trusting" the report is the actual opposite of "suspecting" the military offer some minor spin. So long as the spin is minor, the report is essentially true; and yet it still might not be 100% candid. 90% candor is pretty much the most I hope for in contentious situations.

If CNN was really looking for true opposites, a binary distinction between "trust" and "distrust," they should have just used that language. Of course in that case they would have found far fewer people claiming they flat-out disbelieved a report they hadn't even read yet. So instead they ask about non-opposites -- "trust" versus "suspect" the military may spin -- and report support for the latter as being full-on distrust.

The other question that's getting a lot of scrutiny is the finding that 28% say they may be influenced by the report, whereas 72% say they won't be, no matter what it says. But who are those 72%? Surely they cannot all be people who wish to withdraw immediately; no polls claim that that high a percentage of Americans want such a thing. So the 72% would seem to include some hardcore warsupporters as well, who either will not change their mind because they feel the war is simply not one we can afford to lose or else feel they are already fairly well informed on the current state of the surge and so don't imagine a formal report will actually add much to their understanding.

The media -- and non-media people -- seem to be assuming that 28% consists only of war supporters and the 72% consists entirely of war opponents whose mind cannot be changed.

Depends on how literally people answer questions -- something pollsters aren't really able to determine. Sloppy questions which don't ask specifically what you mean to ask cause this confusion. Are the 28% war supporters who are claiming, dishonestly, that their opinions will change, when in fact it is highly unlikely their opinions could change (i.e., they'll continue to support the war no matter what the report says)? Or are the 28% those who are neither war supporters nor war opponents who are answering honestly when they say their minds could be changed -- and are hence the swing opinion on the subject?

We don't know. It is incorrect, however, by the express terms of the poll, to assume that 28% support the war but might change their minds if Petraeus delivers a negative report, whereas 72% oppose the war and cannot be swayed even by a very positive report from Petraeus. And yet that seems to be how people are reading the poll. Despite the fact the question says nothing of the sort.

Should Have Read the Poll! Geoff says--

The actual poll tells us that of the 72% who say that his report won't influence their thinking, 21% are war supporters.

So, assuming the best, that means that 49% could possibly end up supporting the war after the report (21% who support the war and whose minds cannot be changed and 28% whose minds can be changed.... they say).

Posted by: Ace at 03:07 PM

Comments

1 The actual poll tells us that of the 72% who say that his report won't influence their thinking, 21% are war supporters.

Posted by: geoff at August 17, 2007 03:13 PM (hFhce)

2 ah, thanks!

Posted by: ace at August 17, 2007 03:23 PM (1UCRY)

3 The report won't change my mind, because (1) I'm not going to watch it live; (2) I'm not going to watch TV news shows cherry-picking bits that support their narrative; (3) I'm going to rely on bloggers to tell me what the said; and (4) the bloggers I read are people I generally agree with.

Exit question, though: The week before the report, when the MSM is falsely claiming to have advance leaked excerpts, what will their lie be: going badly, going well, or yes-but? Longshot: Will they forego the chance to pre-spin at all?

Posted by: quiggs at August 17, 2007 03:24 PM (rXafI)

This seems to disagree with a recent Pew survey that had about 70% of Americans viewing the military as highly-respected and trustworthy. Money quote:

"Another area of continuity is views about the military, the most highly respected institution in American life. In this poll, 70 percent rated the honesty and ethical standards of people in the military as high compared to a third who felt that about public officials in Washington. I think the military's mission in the minds of many Americans is narrowly and clearly defined and carried out well, and that may explain the institution's success across so many different polls. By contrast, government's responsibilities are many and varied, and there's just a lot more to criticize about what government does."

I suspect that the difference has to do with the distribution of people who were asked the question in this poll.

Posted by: Monty at August 17, 2007 03:28 PM (UdJCa)

5 Shouldn't these people maybe have waited until the actual report is released before making these kinds of decisions?

Or are we simply wasting time with the actual facts again and simply going to stick with the ideology above all else?

Posted by: wiserbud at August 17, 2007 03:36 PM (wWwJR)

This vid of Bad Ass Marine fits perfectly in this post.

A true poet; he is the OPPOSITE of Maya Angelou --

She called...

Blacks, Whites...wait
African Americans and Caucasians, Asians, excuse me.
Vietnamese, Philipenes, Koreans and Jamaicans or
Haitans, waitin' Hispanics y'all.

Please be paitent
Mexican, Puerto Ricans, Venezualean, Cuban, Dominican, Panamanian Democrats
I beg your pardon, you partied with the late, great Reagan?
Republican, Independent, Christian, Catholic,
Methodist, Baptist, 7th Day Adventist, 5 Percenters,
Hindu, Sunii Muslim, Brothers and Sisters who never seen the New York city
skyline when the twin towers still existed.
But still She called.

From the bowels of Ground Zero she sent this 911 distress signal.
Because She was in desperate need of a hero,
and didn't have time to decipher what to call 'em,
so she called 'em all Her children.
The children of the stars and bars who needed to know nothing more than the fact that she called.
The fact that someone attempted to harm us
this daughter who covered us all with her loving arms.
And now these arms are sprawled across New York City streets.
A smoke filled lung, a silt covered faced,
and a solitary tear poured out of her cheek.
Her singed garments carpets Pennsylvania Avenue and the Pentagon was under her feet.
As she began to talk, she began to cough up small particles of debris
and said, "I am America, and I'm calling on the land of the free."
So they answered.

All personal differences set to the side
because right now there was no time to decide which state building the Confederate flag should fly over,
and which trimester the embryo is considered alive,
or on our monetary units, and which God we should confide.
You see, someone attempted to choke the voice
of the one who gave us the right for choice,
and now she was callin.
And somebody had to answer.
Who was going to answer?

So they did.
Stern faces and chisled chins.
Devoted women and disciplined men,
who rose from the ashes like a pheonix
and said "don't worry, we'll stand in your defense."
They tightened up their bootlaces
and said goodbye to loved ones, family and friends.
They tried to bombard them with the "hold on", "wait-a-minute's", and "what-if's".
And "Daddy, where you goin?".
And, "Mommy, why you leavin?".
And they merely kissed them on their foreheads and said "Don't worry, I have my reasons.
You see, to this country I pledged my allegience
to defend it against all enemies foreign and domestic.
So as long as I'm breathin, I'll run though hell-fire,
meet the enemy on the front lines,
look him directly in his face,
stare directly in his eyes and scream,
"I AM AMERICA! WE WILL NOT BE TERRORIZED!
WE WILL NOT BE TERRORIZED!
I REFUSE TO BE AFRAID!
I'LL FIGHT YOU ANY COUNTRY, ANY CONTINENT, ANY TERRAIN.
I'LL FIGHT TO MY LAST BREATH!"

And if by chance death is my fate,
pin my medals upon my chest,
and throw Old Glory on my grave.
But, don't y'all cry for me.
You see, my Father's prepared a place.
I'll be a part of his Holy army standing a watch at the Pearly Gates.
Because freedom was never free.
POW's, and fallen soldiers
all paid the ultimate sacrafice
along side veterans who put themselves in harms way.
Risking their lives and limbs just to hold up democracy's weight,
but still standing on them broken appendages anytime the National Anthem was played.
You see, these were the brave warriors that gave me the right
to say that I'm Black. Or white.

Posted by: Bart at August 17, 2007 03:36 PM (Vl6Nn)

7 The Dems in congress are preparing the ground for this. Some of them have been refusing to even meet with Petraeus.

The leftier outlets are helping with the pre-spin, denigrating General "Betrayus" as a Bu$hbot tool.

I have to wonder how much effect these efforts are having on public opinion.

Posted by: stace at August 17, 2007 03:55 PM (A56/D)

In a way this is positive news:

With the progress evident to an increasingly growing number, They have to attack the General personally. I say let them. Ask any American you pass by on the street, in your work place, or restaraunt who they trust more - politicians, or the United States military. They are walking an ever tightening line if they start actively accusing the military during congressional hearings.

Posted by: blogRot at August 17, 2007 04:24 PM (EKMxC)

9 As was pointed out on this site how can the majority of Americans get behind the effort if they don't see our guys killing AQ? And they don't by media intent.

Posted by: ricpic at August 17, 2007 04:47 PM (0FRi9)

10 Polls, schmolls. Forget lawyers, first thing kill all the pollsters. If I was dictator for a day, after mandating free jerky and elminating daylight savings, I'd ban polling and require everyone to kick a pollster in the furry beanbags.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 17, 2007 04:49 PM (wmgz8)

11 The purpose of modern polls is to mislead the craven into thinking everyone else is too, and mislead the strong into thinking they are alone.

Posted by: sherlock at August 17, 2007 05:03 PM (ojW85)

12 Christopher Taylor for Emperor!

Did I mention that I don't know anyone who even answers polls? Phone polls, hang up. In-person? Tell them to slag off.

Basically, naive people and people who don't have anything better to do with their time answer polls. You know, Oprah watchers.

Polls are complete crap, they just solidify idiot's opinions.

Oh, and daylight savings time sucks elephant ass.

Posted by: Merovign at August 17, 2007 05:49 PM (IaYDo)

13 the other 53 percent of those polled said instead of even listening to patreus they will be too busy smoking pot and blogging on daily kos to pay attention.

Posted by: JackMeHoffer at August 17, 2007 06:52 PM (e9gb2)

25 percent of respondents to this poll answered every question with "IMPEACH BUSH AND CHENEY NOW"

Posted by: JackMeHoffer at August 17, 2007 07:00 PM (lg2eB)

15 May Indiana forever bow its head in shame for having accepted daylight savings time.

Posted by: ricpic at August 17, 2007 07:41 PM (0FRi9)

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