Petraeus May Suggest Withdrawal... From Pacified Areas Which Iraqis Can Now Patrol Alone

Democrats will soon demand a dramatic new change-the-course policy that "where Iraqis can stand up, the US will stand down." Despite the fact that this is the policy.

Intent on demonstrating progress in Iraq, the top U.S. general there is expected by Bush administration officials to recommend removing American troops soon from several areas where commanders believe security has improved, possibly including Al Anbar province.
According to the officials, Gen. David H. Petraeus is expected to propose the partial pullback in his September status report to Congress, when both the war's critics and supporters plan to reassess its course. Administration officials who support the current troop levels hope Petraeus' recommendations will persuade Congress to reject pressure for a major U.S. withdrawal.
The expected recommendation would authorize U.S. commanders to withdraw troops from places that have become less violent and turn over security responsibilities to Iraqi forces.
...
Petraeus has not told the White House where he might recommend reductions. But military commanders have indicated in recent briefings that Nineveh province in northern Iraq and its capital, Mosul, like Al Anbar in the west, could be an area from which it might be suitable for the U.S. to withdraw.

From Instapundit, who has a particularly link-heavy post about Petraeus and progress in Iraq.

And then there's this from Totten, about the JAM-infested IA in Baghdad.

Not good news there, of course.

Posted by: Ace at 03:12 PM

Comments

1 Meh. Sounds like a bad idea to me. Didn't work so well for us in Falujah, nor the Brits in Basra. I think it needs more time or it'll just regress.

Posted by: Entropy at August 15, 2007 03:17 PM (m6c4H)

Whaaaaa? The headline at huffpo on this article said that the white house is going to write the September report, not Patraeus.

You mean there was more to this than what huffpo says? I'm shocked!

Posted by: Bosk at August 15, 2007 03:24 PM (+aNmG)

Entropy,

It could be either or. In the case of a counter-insurgency operation the most difficult aspect of operation is identifying the enemy, by pascifying, in this way, then doing the same thing somewhere else, leaving the first place free to act on their own, the actions of the scumbags without the watchers (the cats will play thing) then they identify themselves for killing.

It's a necessary step, kinda like sending out a runner to draw fire from a sniper while another sniper kills the first sniper.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at August 15, 2007 03:27 PM (QTv8u)

4 Or it could be the locals are better able to sort out the bad guys from the good.

CI is something local governments can handle just fine as long as the insurgency doesn't get out of control. The problem in the past has been the jihadis could mount a 200 man operation to overrun a police station, and that's something you need combat troops with good C3 to deal with.

The real question is whether or not the bad guys can still mount that kind of operation. I'm guessing no, but it remains to be seen. The ace we have up our sleeves is to make the (sunni) tribal leaders aware they're going to be left to the tender mercy of the shias in the Iraqi Army if they make too much trouble.

Posted by: Eric at August 15, 2007 03:42 PM (V/eiq)

I'm sure, too, that those extra troops would be all that more helpful clearing out the more active areas, and if this is true, and these places really are 'ready', all the better for everything.

But I fear this is at least in part politically motivated. Perhaps neccessarily so, in order to maintain support for the war, and come back with a recommendation so glarringly progress-signifying it can't be denied.

While good politics in the short term that could be wind up being very bad in the long term if it turns out poorly.

I'm no general, but I think from day 1 in this war, we've been all at a rush to declare the Iraqi's ready, and it's been like chronic wishful thinking for us so far.

From a military perspective perhaps no matter whether they are ready or not, like you say WP. But from a political perspective again, trying to maintain this whole war before someone goes and surrenders for us, it will be very bad politically if things revert. Worse then if we never left.

So, definetly a gamble. I hope he's sure...or that they don't do it.

Posted by: Entropy at August 15, 2007 03:48 PM (m6c4H)

6 I don't disagree entropy, From the very beginning of the afghan war, I said "kill a shitload of people, tell them to become civilized, maintain a fast reaction force of about 30K, if they get out of line, kill a shitload of people, repeat." Thats not an exact quote, but that is my basic doctrine for barabarous nations.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at August 15, 2007 03:56 PM (QTv8u)

7 And of course Eric, you are right, but it is dependant that the replacement national military has the might and will to oppose the insurgency.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at August 15, 2007 04:00 PM (QTv8u)

MAN! I miss getting into these discussions with officers and upper enlisted when I was in.

The military is filled with brilliant JOAT's rather than glasses correcting specialists.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at August 15, 2007 04:20 PM (QTv8u)

You mean there was more to this than what huffpo says? I'm shocked!

Yeah, I mean the right is quoting from paragraph 1 on this story, the left is quoting from paragraph 28.

VRWC at the L.A. Times, baby.

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