Oh. My. Gaia: NASA's Temperature History *Completely Wrong*; Corrected Figures Show "Warmest Year In Earth's History" Was Not 1998, But Rather... <font color="red">1934</font>

Oh. My. Gaia: NASA's Temperature History Completely Wrong; Corrected Figures Show "Warmest Year In Earth's History" Was Not 1998, But Rather... 1934

NASA has now silently released corrected figures, and the changes are truly astounding. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place. 1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II. Anthony Watts has put the new data in chart form, along with a more detailed summary of the events.
The effect of the correction on global temperatures is minor (some 1-2% less warming than originally thought), but the effect on the US global warming propaganda machine could be huge.

Shattered hockey-stick. And a little duct-tape and love ain't gonna fix it.

Thanks to cutaway/Purple Avenger.

Cautionary Note Added A Bit Too Late: The sourcing here isn't very strong; I'd like a link to these quietly-revised NASA figures.

FWIW, I think this is true, but without a link to NASA's new temperature records, we can't be sure.

If true, this is freaking amazing. This completely destroys fifteen years of aggressively stupid proselytizing on behalf of Mother Goddess Earth.

Cautionary Note Retracted: Blacksheep points out the numbers were linked in the article TigerHawk links to -- right here.

Assuming that's a real NASA domain and all, which I do.

Even More: Commenters assure me this explanation of how this all unfolded is crazy-delicious. I haven't had the time to read it yet; I'm throwing it up as fast as possible.

Cuffy Meiggs, who I often think of as "Drew," says "dig deeper" into that Tech blog site TigerHawk links. Here's the thing: James Hansen, who accused Bush of politicizing global warming science, is responsible for the bugged algorithms that produced the erroneous figures. Furthermore, he refused to release his algorithms so that they could be checked. The bug was discovered by someone who took the time to reverse-engineer Hansen's flawed algorithm, and then, having accurately done so, proved NASA's numbers were wrong. Thus causing the revision.

So James Hansen, who claimed Bush was politicizing Global Warming, refused to provide his algorithms to other researchers so they could simply check his work, hiding his own errors from them and distorting the science he claims to care about oh-so-much until some persistent researchers went to the great trouble of reconstructing his algorithms themselves.

Fire him. Immediately.

Update: The numbers I've seen so far only concern the 48 contiguous US states. I don't know if there are also global numbers, or if they're currently being revised and not yet available, or what exactly.

Morbo says I'm getting carried away:

They are not global temperatures; the error only applies to the US data, and the corrections apply only to the US data. Unless the bug is bigger than either Steve McIntyre or GISS have disclosed, 1998 is still the officially the hottest year on record for the global temperature, and 1934 is only officially hotter in the US. Ace, you're getting a little carried away here.
That being said, I would characterize the US network as being the most extensive and most studied; god only knows how unreliable some of the non-US data is that goes into the global record.
That being said, the real story is not a few little corrections here and there by around 0.2 degrees C. The real story is that GISS data was obviously wrong but had gone unchecked before Steve's work, firstly because the IPCC choirboys never bother to check their own data (see also the MBH98 hockey stick), and secondly because it was hard to check because the GISS software and algorithms are kept secret (despite being paid for by public money). This makes it virtually impossible to replicate and check. Replication is a cornerstone of the scientific method; its not just bad science, its not really even science at all.

I think we can argue about the "real story." Or there's room for two.

Half of Global Warming Cultists' Book of Prayers relies on temperatures rising towards the asymptote right now, so that they can extend that trendline into the future and claim future temperatures will just keep going up, up, up.

Any correction like this which shows that two of the three highest temperatures in the US occurred so much earlier in the century (1934 and 1921 -- Good lord, how many people in the world even had cars or oil heat then?) suggests not an ever-rising temperature but a cyclically rising, and falling, and rising, and falling pattern.

Posted by: Ace at 04:54 PM

Comments

1 Great, so now NASA is bought and paid for by the oil companies.

Posted by: Brad at August 09, 2007 04:59 PM (zAHIP)

2 The media will try to supress this. This needs to be played up by Conservative blogs as much as the Amnesty bill was. A billion pixels spent by us will result in the MSM having to allot a few dozen.

Posted by: Tushar D at August 09, 2007 05:01 PM (IlgNp)

3 It's a bad week to be a libtard.

Posted by: dave at August 09, 2007 05:05 PM (JqId/)

4 Are you kidding? It's going to take more than a couple "facts" to stop me.

Posted by: Worldwide Global Warming Juggernaut at August 09, 2007 05:05 PM (Lc9rf)

5 I'm pretty sure Bush was consolidating his power in Germany sometime around 1934 though...so there's still linkage.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 09, 2007 05:05 PM (RfG2Y)

6 How much is that flaming skull raising temperatures, anyway?

Posted by: Roy at August 09, 2007 05:06 PM (RNbCq)

7 I used to think it was funny when people said, "God hates Al Gore." Now I think it must be true.

Posted by: Farmer Joe at August 09, 2007 05:08 PM (gDNGv)

8 Bush and SUV's caused me.

Posted by: The Dust Bowl at August 09, 2007 05:11 PM (RfG2Y)

Rush talked about this on his show today. You may be able to source it from his transcripts.

Posted by: Judd at August 09, 2007 05:11 PM (/pHM6)

10 Eh, me no be good at science but looking at the list of top 10 warmest years TigerHawk links to, it doesn't seem to change much, just shuffle the same years up or down a spot or two. I am not sure 1998 and 1934 flipping the first and second spots is that big a deal.

It seems the bigger story is the original data wasn't that big of deal to begin with. It's been warmer (slightly) at times, cooler (slightly) at others, rinse and repeat.

Posted by: Drew at August 09, 2007 05:11 PM (hlYel)

11 1934

You mean during the midsts of the dust bowl when crops failed due to heat and the world was racked with economic depression?

That was hotter?

Shocking.

Posted by: Christoph at August 09, 2007 05:15 PM (hawOV)

12 Yeah, but this sort of evidence is pointless when you can point to anyone random, contemporary weather event and say, "aha, its above average today in the UK (and ignore a colder than average Eastern US)."

Oh, and based on dum dum's article yesterday about increased water causing earthquakes and volcano's, was there increased activity in those years, 1998 and 1934?

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 09, 2007 05:16 PM (za2Xz)

13 Hmm, this was on Limbaugh today, and he only cited his own staff as having 'backed out/reversed' NASA's calculations from what I recall. He credited them with having devised the correct years from after correcting unspecified flaw in the non-published NASA formula.

He should post their work on his website. He did not reference anyone else during that segment, otherwise I would have pulled them up online while I was working and listening.

Maybe he wants others to verify it-- he likely would not put his ass on the line over this if it wasn't true, too many ppl would love to crucify him!

Posted by: kad77 at August 09, 2007 05:16 PM (B5RxW)

Ace, dig deeper. It gets MUCH better:

While inspecting historical temperature graphs, he noticed a strange discontinuity, or "jump" in many locations, all occurring around the time of January, 2000.

These graphs were created by NASA's Reto Ruedy and James Hansen (who shot to fame when he accused the administration of trying to censor his views on climate change). Hansen refused to provide McKintyre with the algorithm used to generate graph data, so McKintyre reverse-engineered it. The result appeared to be a Y2K bug in the handling of the raw data.

Posted by: Cuffy Meigs at August 09, 2007 05:17 PM (JefgB)

quietly revised figures:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt

keep it on the downlow.

Posted by: Comrade X at August 09, 2007 05:17 PM (k7SeR)

Eh.

This changes nothing.

Globalarmists have been cherry picking data since their inception. Witness the "Greatest Hurricanes" list which they conveniently begin after the 30s when there where huge and multiple storms but were inconveniently timed for scare tactics.

Posted by: captkidney at August 09, 2007 05:19 PM (0RLJ5)

17 It still looks like the only time in the data where there has been a consistent period where the temperature has been above the annual mean of around 0.5 C or more each year is from 1998 onward.

Posted by: Mike Z. at August 09, 2007 05:22 PM (GLMrI)

18 That proves it!

It's OK to pump tons of carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere! Repeal the Clean Air Act now!

Posted by: icus at August 09, 2007 05:24 PM (OTNlI)

19 Still, if this is accurate, it will be pretty embarrassing. You might even call it an inconvenient truth.

Posted by: Mike Z. at August 09, 2007 05:24 PM (GLMrI)

20 PJ Media has a link to Coyote Blog with a bit more detail.

Steve McIntyre, the Canadian statistician who helped to expose massive holes in Michael Mann's hockey stick methodology, looked into [whether or not nearby a/c units were affecting temperature stations]. After some poking around, he began to suspect that the GISS data base had a year 2000 bug in one of their data adjustments.
[...]
Unfortunately, it was hard to prove. Why? Well, that highlights one of the great travesties of climate science. Government scientists using taxpayer money to develop the GISS temperature data base at taxpayer expense refuse to publicly release their temperature adjustment algorithms or software [...] Using the data, though, McIntyre made a compelling case that the GISS data base had systematic discontinuities that bore all the hallmarks of a software bug.

Today, the GISS admitted that McIntyre was correct, and has started to republish its data with the bug fixed. And the numbers are changing a lot. Before today, GISS would have said 1998 was the hottest year on record [...] and that 2006 was the second hottest. Well, no more. Here are the new rankings for the 10 hottest years in the US, starting with #1:

Posted by: adamthemad at August 09, 2007 05:24 PM (3jNT9)

21 temperature has been above the annual mean of around 0.5 C

Sorry, that should read "above the annual mean by around 0.5 C"

Posted by: Mike Z. at August 09, 2007 05:26 PM (GLMrI)

22 But there was also a just as long period (9 years) of consistently below mean temps (1964-72)...

Posted by: Cuffy Meigs at August 09, 2007 05:26 PM (JefgB)

23 If true, this is freaking amazing. This completely destroys fifteen years of aggressively stupid proselytizing on behalf of Mother Goddess Earth.

Ace, the data is linked to the NASA website.

Posted by: Mike Z. at August 09, 2007 05:27 PM (GLMrI)

Does anyone here actually believe the econuts care one whit about facts or evidence? Note that this is the same scientific establishment which had a consensus about global cooling in the 1970's. Note that they offered the same solutions back then: massive cut in the standard of living, enforced by draconian gov't regulations. These things lead me to believe that many of these Gaists are actually only interested in draconian gov't regs and a massive crash in the american standard of living, and are whipping up global warming hysteria in order to achieve that end.

Posted by: Calix at August 09, 2007 05:28 PM (8d3U/)

25 Ace, someone already posted the fresh data, but here is a link to the OLD data:
http://tinyurl.com/3973jt (link shortened by ace)

Posted by: stirner at August 09, 2007 05:29 PM (ILUrb)

26 But there was also a just as long period (9 years) of consistently below mean temps (1964-72)...

It would nice to see these above/below average periods compared to say, solar activity at the time. As I said before me no good at science but it seems that big fucking burning ball of gas might have something to do with temperature and climate here on Earth.

Posted by: Drew at August 09, 2007 05:31 PM (hlYel)

27 But there was also a just as long period (9 years) of consistently below mean temps (1964-72)...

I don't know if I would call 1972 just before 1997, especially when we are dealing with data for only a little over a hundred years. There are several periods where the temperature is below average (or, for only a year or two, slightly above average) without being followed by significant sustained increases. But who knows?

Posted by: Mike Z. at August 09, 2007 05:32 PM (GLMrI)

28 I don't know if I would call 1972 just before 1997

I mean, 1998.

Posted by: Mike Z. at August 09, 2007 05:33 PM (GLMrI)

29 I TOLD you Laurie David was a stupid cuntrag

Posted by: TMF at August 09, 2007 05:38 PM (+BgNZ)

I suppose all those polar bears stranded on melting ice bergs aren't real, either.

I think the President of Canada would have a different view of all this!

Posted by: Iquestionthe timing at August 09, 2007 05:39 PM (Yn8HA)

31 I think it still comes back to NASA dickweed/crybaby James Hansen fudging the climate numbers to fit his agenda... Beauchamp, Part Deux!

Posted by: Cuffy Meigs at August 09, 2007 05:44 PM (JefgB)

32 I have the polar bear shot from AIT in my office at work. I have it there ironically, but everybody else thinks I'm in earnest.

Win-win!

Posted by: tachyonshuggy at August 09, 2007 05:45 PM (Lz6uE)

33 But, but, but I put an ice cube outside today and it melted! Just like the polar bears that have all died because Bush never funded their swimming lessons!

Icus, does mean we can dump tons of Carbon Monoxide in the air? sulphur dioxide? what a slippery shit you attempt to be by mentioning that. I don't even know what carbon monoxide has to do with this, after all this discussion is about moonbats trying to support ecotheism on the belief that CO2 is going to boil the seas. This is not about pollution, you ass.

Fuck you and shit twice.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 09, 2007 05:47 PM (za2Xz)

34 But there was also a just as long period (9 years) of consistently below mean temps (1964-72)

Muscle cars!

Oh wait.

Posted by: Gimme a Minute at August 09, 2007 05:48 PM (JLI/R)

<blockquote>But there was also a just as long period (9 years) of consistently below mean temps (1964-72)...
</blockquote>

Isn't that about the time the greenies were yelping about the coming ice age?

Posted by: Insomniac at August 09, 2007 05:49 PM (UYKDB)

36 Crap! Nobody told me blockquote tags wouldn't work!! Arrrgh!

Posted by: Insomniac at August 09, 2007 05:49 PM (UYKDB)

37 These numbers are from NASA. Dammit, retards, we are talking about global warming, not local, "my front porch is hot" shit. Remember a few years ago, we had a mild winter in the US while Russia was beclowned with supercold temps.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 09, 2007 05:50 PM (za2Xz)

38 sorry, I meant those numbers from NASA you linked to are US numbers.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 09, 2007 05:53 PM (za2Xz)

39 But my front porch is hot!

Posted by: Cuffy Meigs at August 09, 2007 05:53 PM (JefgB)

40 This may be beside the point, but I've lived in the Northwest most of my life and am not young. I will bet that this is the coldest summer I have experienced in my entire life. I realize this is probably an anomoly, but as the MSM hypes every single warm day as proof humans are killing Gaia, I just feel the need to say that I've burned more fossil fuel keeping my house at least 60 degrees this summer than ever before.

Posted by: Mark in Portland at August 09, 2007 05:55 PM (+45yf)

41 Mark, same here on the east coast. well, until this week.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 09, 2007 05:56 PM (za2Xz)

42 Anyone who believes the myth of man-made global warming is a retard.

Can ya hear me now, icus?

Posted by: MCPO Airdale at August 09, 2007 06:05 PM (+oZBt)

Sheee-it! Back in my day, 230 million to 50 million years ago, we would have called 1998 a "cold snap*"!

what a bunch of nancy-boys you humans turned out to be...

* average temp was 10�-15� C warmer than today. Google it!

Posted by: The Mesozoic Era at August 09, 2007 06:10 PM (/vN7m)

44 I've been doing weather station surveys for Anthony Watts for the last few weeks. It's been pretty fun to watch this whole thing unfold over the last few days.

These are only US numbers, but there's no way to know that the Global temps aren't just as messed up, since they won't release the methods they use for their adjustments.

Posted by: stace at August 09, 2007 06:11 PM (A56/D)

WHAT?! You're telling me all those T-shirts and bumper stickers I had printed are wrong, now?

Fucking-a!

At least I can donate them for tax credits.

Posted by: Hempfest T-Shirt Vendor at August 09, 2007 06:11 PM (SJCkB)

icus is the Scott Beauchamp of trolls.

Posted by: Warden at August 09, 2007 06:12 PM (WfwcS)

47 I'm betting Hansen's stuff could be FOIA'd.

I know a couple of NASA scientists at Goddard who work on other stuff that I'm probably going to be writing a trade mag article with. Maybe I can sound them out about any internal shit storms going on there.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 09, 2007 06:13 PM (RfG2Y)

Mark, I'm also in Portland (actually, Scappoose). Yeah, this is November weather we're having (and for the last 5-6 years in a row, I haven't been able to get up my driveway for about a week at a time, because the snow takes forever to melt -- that never used to happen).

It's only anecdotal, but for whatever it's worth...

Posted by: Tom at August 09, 2007 06:15 PM (02oyd)

49 With regards to the lefties, this whole project has been a little like the Beauchamp thing.

The AGW people kept asking the weather station guys just what exactly they hoped to accomplish by, like, replicating methods, or auditing the quality of weather stations. They've been astounded that anyone would want to actually verify facts and figures.

Posted by: stace at August 09, 2007 06:18 PM (A56/D)

50 PA, that's what McIntyre has been suggesting--people need to start doing FOIA reqs. It's all taxpayer funded and should be made available.

Posted by: stace at August 09, 2007 06:20 PM (A56/D)

51 But there was also a just as long period (9 years) of consistently below mean temps (1964-72)...

Hrm, that's approximately the halcyon days of the actual youth of AlGore, RFK2, Laurie David, and all the leaders of the screechies. Can't be coincidence.

Posted by: Heather at August 09, 2007 06:22 PM (yG+tb)

52 icus is the Scott Beauchamp of trolls.

Hey now, that's uncalled-for. Beauchamp may be a lying scumbag, but he's not a retard.

Posted by: zetetic at August 09, 2007 06:27 PM (72/aa)

53 I'll give you odds that James Hansen is somehow profiting from the carbon offsets cottege industry.

Anyone care to look into his investment portfolio?

Posted by: cat at August 09, 2007 06:27 PM (UpVuG)

54 The global warming propangda machine can't be stopped, though. By anything. Not by facts and not by appeals to common sense. Because now EVERY time some new yorker sweats, they think, "damn this global warming!" Everytime there is any natural disaster, global warming is blamed by the media. I find this combination particularly appalling. They give the people a blank check and the people fill it out....

I am disgusted by this entire situation. Scientists particularly should be ashamed, as they trade their academic rigor and uncertainty for the media's back pats and crown of laurels.

Posted by: Dr. Manhattan at August 09, 2007 06:30 PM (+znp3)

there be a major geek war goin down right now

can't even log on to climateaudit.org

Posted by: windansea at August 09, 2007 06:53 PM (8s6Iz)

It all comes back to 8th grade algebra.

Whether it's TNR legendary fact-checking...

Or NASA's Hansen calculating temperatures...

Show your work.

Posted by: hit and run at August 09, 2007 06:57 PM (Kt8vP)

57 They are not global temperatures; the error only applies to the US data, and the corrections apply only to the US data. Unless the bug is bigger than either Steve McIntyre or GISS have disclosed, 1998 is still the officially the hottest year on record for the global temperature, and 1934 is only officially hotter in the US. Ace, you're getting a little carried away here.

That being said, I would characterize the US network as being the most extensive and most studied; god only knows how unreliable some of the non-US data is that goes into the global record.

That being said, the real story is not a few little corrections here and there by around 0.2 degrees C. The real story is that GISS data was obviously wrong but had gone unchecked before Steve's work, firstly because the IPCC choirboys never bother to check their own data (see also the MBH98 hockey stick), and secondly because it was hard to check because the GISS software and algorithms are kept secret (despite being paid for by public money). This makes it virtually impossible to replicate and check. Replication is a cornerstone of the scientific method; its not just bad science, its not really even science at all.

Posted by: morbo at August 09, 2007 07:03 PM (SpNCP)

58 I can't reach Climate Audit either, or sufacestations.org maybe a just a problem with the internet pipes

Posted by: RicardoVerde at August 09, 2007 07:04 PM (r9DD+)

59 That being said, I wish I had said 'That being said' less. I sound stupid.

Posted by: morbo at August 09, 2007 07:04 PM (SpNCP)

60 Global warming now and forever world without end amen.

Posted by: ricpic at August 09, 2007 07:12 PM (0FRi9)

61 I think the errors found only affect US records. Am I wrong in thinking Hansen did the "hockey stick" that produces Gore's main thesis, even it you feed it randome numbers?

Posted by: Larry Sheldon at August 09, 2007 07:15 PM (QwUYy)

62 no I don't think that was hansen.

The hockey stick I think has already been pretty well debunked -- including by Global Warming Cultists. Not that the MSM seems to care.

Posted by: ace at August 09, 2007 07:21 PM (1UCRY)

63 See Anthony's blog for updates--it's still up:

http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/

Climateaudit has been down most of the day, but surfacestations.org was working until a little while ago.

Posted by: stace at August 09, 2007 07:21 PM (A56/D)

64 Facts? What are these "facts" you keep speaking of?

Posted by: Sen. Albert Gore D-Tenn (ret.) at August 09, 2007 07:23 PM (7jCPu)

65 Anybody think this matters?

Those simpletons will move onto the next irrational cultish thing and forget about this.

It's their way, as you get older, you can see the history play out in the present in these simple douches behavior.

I love pointing it out to them.

Posted by: Lt. Det. E Buzz Miller at August 09, 2007 07:23 PM (v/XJX)

"I think the errors found only affect US records. Am I wrong in thinking Hansen did the "hockey stick" that produces Gore's main thesis, even it you feed it randome numbers?"

Nope, that incompetent, unethical bastard was Michael Mann.

Posted by: Reiver at August 09, 2007 07:24 PM (DxhP5)

67 The hockey stick was by Mann, not Hansen. McIntyre and McKittrick debunked it.

Posted by: stace at August 09, 2007 07:26 PM (A56/D)

Morbo, I think your point about US data vs Euro data is valid. But the Euro temps still are beholden to correction calculations as well.

What would be an interesting thing to do, is gather the 1970's era massaged and corrected temperature data. Those were probably "corrected" to show global cooling for the past century.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 09, 2007 07:29 PM (F0f5M)

69 oh, can someone whip up the hockey stick debunking link?

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 09, 2007 07:30 PM (F0f5M)

70 But global warming isn't actually warming....it's climate change. Thus the fact that the earth isn't getting warmer proves nothing. Every possible phenomenon is explicable by the theory...nothing can gainsay it.

You will be assimilated.

Posted by: Jason at August 09, 2007 07:44 PM (JUDJS)

71 Gaia is my bitch!

Posted by: The Facts at August 09, 2007 07:51 PM (F/DIG)

72 Hansen....hockey stick. Huhuhuhuhuh.

Does this guy have long hair, glasses and two thuggish brothers?

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at August 09, 2007 07:52 PM (tVbxd)

73 One of the biggest AGW adherants is Ann Currey from NBC. I think if Al Gore called her and said, "Ann, I need you to jump into a volcano to stop Global Warming.", she would answer, "Which one?"

Posted by: eman at August 09, 2007 07:59 PM (F/DIG)

74 If you want to have fun, go to this website

http://gallery.surfacestations.org/

And find the temp station(s) nearest to you. Take a photo of the station and submit it to the site. Then we can all see, in all their glory, the urban heat islands in which these temp stations reside. Enough of a blogswarm and maybe the scientists will get around to either moving the stations or creating individual algorithms for correcting the data.

Posted by: dicentra at August 09, 2007 08:10 PM (HyYBP)

75 Nope, that incompetent, unethical bastard was Michael Mann.

That SOB that did Miami Vice? Oh, man, I hate that fucker!

Posted by: zetetic at August 09, 2007 08:23 PM (72/aa)

76 Well I am sure Al Gore will update his powerpoint slide to reflect the discovered Y2K bug - making that old hockey stick more flaccid looking. I am just sure of it. And I am sure he will still get his honorary doctorate degree in climate research.

Posted by: sergei at August 09, 2007 08:50 PM (NzupZ)

Killer comment from Ace's link...

When we moved to Santa Fe, the city rarely recorded a temperature above 90 degrees. Now those temps are common. But not many years ago, I understand that the temperature recording site was moved from an in-town location out to the airport, where it's hotter. Obviously, this has caused the global temperature to rise. I think they should move their thermometer back into town. Seems little enough to ask to save the planet.

Posted by: Paulitics at August 09, 2007 08:54 PM (47+Ys)

78 zetetic,

Michael Mann the actor and Michael Mann the scientists are two different people.
They may both suck ass, but they still are different people.

Posted by: Tushar D at August 09, 2007 09:39 PM (9ULFg)

Don't be afraid to let Mr. Hansen know his little secret is no longer a secret.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen.html

Posted by: Crash at August 09, 2007 09:59 PM (sqfdC)

80 urban heat islands

I can drive 5 miles out into the cane fields after the houses end and see a 8 degree cooler difference in the temp here in Palm Beach in the mornings.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at August 09, 2007 10:04 PM (RfG2Y)

urban heat centers. yes, State of Fear touched on this. Albany, NY, a city that has had a stable population is cited as a city center that has had a stable temperature for nearly a century. In fact, some smaller, stable cities have had declining temps.

But yeah, why not put a temp gauge outside a thermal exhaust port of a nuclear power plant?

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 09, 2007 10:11 PM (F0f5M)

82 Had sent Ace a few links ( few weeks ago) concerning improperly placed weather recording units.

Local TV weather dude Anthony Watts has been documenting- checking sites all over California.

http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/

I guess Rush gave this one out today.

http://www.surfacestations.org/

Posted by: 13times at August 09, 2007 10:22 PM (YXMJA)

83 http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/

Regular readers may remember that I posted about a climate station in Detroit Lakes MN last week, surveyed by volunteer Don Kostuch, and cross posted it to the website http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1828#comments that had two air conditioner units right next to it. It looked like an obvious cause and effect because in 1999 on May 5th, it was determined that the a/c units were moved off the roof of the radio station where this station resides and moved them to the ground where the temperature sensor is close by.

Posted by: 13times at August 09, 2007 10:25 PM (YXMJA)

84 Between this news, and Mike Gravel's about gays in the military, it's going to be a VERY bad week for the libs.......soooo sad. LOL

Posted by: bear at August 09, 2007 10:55 PM (IfRNg)

this is on Drudge right now, bet he runs the NASA software screwup tomorrow morning

(Reuters) - Global warming is forecast to set in with a vengeance after 2009, with at least half of the five following years expected to be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record, scientists reported on Thursday.

Climate experts have long predicted a general warming trend over the 21st century spurred by the greenhouse effect, but this new study gets more specific about what is likely to happen in the decade that started in 2005.

Posted by: jimbimbo at August 09, 2007 11:12 PM (8s6Iz)

86 The problem for the Al Gore 'ever warming, we're all doomed" theory is that ... the temperatures have gone down for 7 years.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 09, 2007 11:44 PM (wmgz8)

Because now EVERY time some new yorker sweats, they think, "damn this global warming!"

Tell me about it. I'm not even in NY.

Temps peaked a couple days ago and people were bitching and sweating. I said, 'Yeah, we're hitting the dog days of August, huh?'

Some people just said things like, 'Wow, are we ever!'

Some people said, 'Oh my God, it has NEVER been this bad!'

Even though we're having a very mild Summer, the discomfort of one short heatwave trumps all logic.

Posted by: lauraw at August 10, 2007 08:03 AM (DbybK)

Hell it's just now getting really hot in central Texas - two months of summer rain all the way into August is a little weird.

It's almost as weird as snow on Easter.

For us, I mean. Not you.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at August 10, 2007 08:30 AM (pzen5)

89 Up on Drudge a while, but what the hell. (I'm also dropping the link onto my tag since I don't trust this link-button thingy.) Substituting "real data" for "approximations" and having "tweaked their model to better reflect the impact of weather systems" UK meteorologists have concluded that man-made global warming is real - it's just been offset by the natural forces they have started to account for accurately.

Just let that one sink in a second.

Naturally disaster is still just around the corner. It's just going to have to keep living in the future tense, as it always seems to do, for another couple of years. I just hope they will be able to further "tweak" their model and substitute more "real data" for "approximations" before the theoretical frying starts. Somehow, I think they will. Very, very gradually.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at August 10, 2007 10:25 AM (Z3AmO)

90 To further expand on what Morbo pointed out...
1) yes, these are only US numbers that were recalculated but
1a) the US dataset is considered to be more accurate. Although the surfacestations.org project is finding bad sites, if it's bad here , it's worse in other countries
1b) this breaks the hockeystick curve and therefore de-corelates the hypothesis of CO2 being the prime contributor to warming. Remember that the AGW meme is that the US is the prime culprit in CO2 production.

Having said the above... with Y2K fix disclosed by the GISS, that means 40% of the warmest years were in the 30's, well that breaks the corelation between CO2 and temperature. Their data is showing higher CO2 in the 90's and 2000's. The debate now is that CO2 is not a contributor but a result of (naturally induced) higher temperatures with a pronounced lag effect.

Posted by: sergei at August 10, 2007 11:23 AM (NzupZ)

91 The debate now is that CO2 is not a contributor but a result of (naturally induced) higher temperatures with a pronounced lag effect.

Sergei nailed it. The oceans hold tens of thousands of times more dissolved CO2 than the air, and there's an equilibrium between air and ocean. As every chemist knows, as temp goes up, the solubility of gas in liquid decreases. So...if ocean temps increase a fraction of a degree--due to fractionally increased solar output, for example-- you're likely to alter the equilibrium concentration of atmospheric CO2 significantly.

Bottom line: Higher CO2 may well be an effect of a tiny increase in ocean temp. This doesn't mean there's no greenhouse effect from CO2, but rather that human activity is insignificant in global warming.

Posted by: sf at August 10, 2007 01:06 PM (T2xbZ)

92 The debate now is that CO2 is not a contributor but a result of (naturally induced) higher temperatures with a pronounced lag effect.

Funny thing. When I was just a lad in elementary school we were taught that another term for CO2 was "plant food." Now it's supposedly a fatal planetary pollutant. But even if CO2 causes warming (instead of something crazy like increased energy output from that Galactus-size nuclear furnace we orbit), it still stands to reason that if we produced more of the stuff, we'd see more plant life springing up to take advantage and break it back down like so many ants cleaning up after our molecular picnic. Algae, which I remember being our biggest producer of oxygen, would seem to be particularly responsive. So even granting the dubious premises of the man-made GW crowd, all we should expect to see would be the same old cycle of warming and cooling that reflects the eternal see-saw between CO2 consumers and CO2 producers.

Does anyone know the "green" explanation for why green things are not supposed do be doing what green things have always done? I've always wondered about it, just not enough to wade through tons of manure to find the answer.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at August 10, 2007 02:07 PM (gjy1/)

93 can anyone clue me in on what AGW means? You guys keep saying it.

I can figure out the "GW." What about the A? "Alarmist"?

Posted by: ace at August 10, 2007 05:15 PM (1UCRY)

94 Anthropogenic?

Posted by: VRWC Agent at August 10, 2007 05:22 PM (gjy1/)

95 anthropogenic = man made

Posted by: Toby928 at August 10, 2007 05:23 PM (evdj2)

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Posted by: Toby928 at August 10, 2007 05:23 PM (evdj2)

97 I was just guessing. "The benefits of a classical education."

Posted by: VRWC Agent at August 10, 2007 05:36 PM (gjy1/)

You got pwned:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/1934-and-all-that/

Posted by: Ben Kalafut at August 10, 2007 08:53 PM (PmPp9)

99 Thanks, Ben, but I don't think I'm quite smart enough to see it. He says 1934 does come up hotter than 1998 after the correction, but it's really a statistical tie (AGW faithful seems to have an on-again off-again appreciation of statistical significance) and that 5 year blocks are where the real action is (also known as "moving the goal posts" since I don't recall skeptics being the ones to make such a fuss over 1998 in the first place). Cute spin, but who cares?

If I start taking measurements tomorrow morning, 1 hour blocks will probably be more statistically useful than 1 minute blocks of time; that doesn't really excuse a lunchtime conclusion that the world will be incinerated by the end of next week. I can start using even more statistically useful weekly measurements in February and conclude by June that the world will be gone within a couple years. Or I can measure in decades and conclude the world will be gone in a century or two.

The bigger blocks of time do not compensate for missing the point: temperature works in cycles. It always has and always will. It has been hotter than this before (no matter whether I'm measuring this second, month or decade) and will be again. It will also be cooler. We call this phenomenon "the weather" and nobody really needs to do anything about it at all. In all likelihood, nobody can.

But maybe you are smart enough to help me out on the plant question I asked at 92. Thanks.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at August 11, 2007 01:54 AM (Z3AmO)

100 I used think that wingers just hate soldiers (BushCo approaches to funding, treating, caring), anyone brown (give or take a couple of shades), white people who are not wingers (i.e. the majority of this country), Contitution huggers (you know who you are), and pretty much everyone else, but I now feel somewhat foolish and naive. To quote from the above post:

�If true, this is freaking amazing. This completely destroys fifteen years of aggressively stupid proselytizing on behalf of Mother Goddess Earth.�

� aggressively stupid proselytizing on behalf of Mother Goddess Earth?

I just feel so stupid not realizing that the problem - the vile base of it all � is the Mother Goddess Earth herself!

WE DON�T NEED NO STINKIN� MOTHER GODDESS EARTH!

There, now I feel much better.

Posted by: smike at August 11, 2007 09:49 PM (hOQQX)

101 Do check out:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/1934-and-all-that/

Posted by: metrodorus at August 12, 2007 01:21 AM (ZcDfC)

102

Was glad to find this spot! Am so tired of all the GW (and worse AGW) crap.

Had a few disjointed thoughts as I read the posts.

For my 2 cents, re: location of the thermometers, just as in Santa Fe, here in Oceanside, the thermometer used to be located at the end of the pier, more than 1/4 mile off shore. We consistently reported lower temps in the summer than anywhere else in San Diego County. Chamber of Commerce liked that. Now, it has been moved to the airport in the San Luis Rey valley. The valley is well-known to be at least 5 degrees warmer than anywhere else in Oceanside, especially in the summer. You can easily feel it in the air temps, no thermometer needed. I have wondered where at the airport the thermometer is. All that blacktop radiates a lot of heat. Could make the air temp even higher.

As for the climate history of the earth, ice caps are a series of blips, they're here and they're gone. And then they're here again. They may be going away again. The earth is actually much cooler right now than the "norm", meaning the majority of earth's history. I think we're still at the end of the last ice age, to have any ice caps at all.

Playing God with predictions of climate change during the lifetimes of people living today is folly. But it's a natural for the libtards.

What will they do when China, not the US, becomes the #1 consumer of oil this year? Decide that oil is ok when China is burning it, but US cars and industry will still be the reason for AGW? I can't wait to hear their spin on on CNN and NBC. Perhaps they'll simply ignore it. Have you noticed that they've stopped mentioning the "hole in the ozone layer"?

Posted by: zippyjan at August 14, 2007 05:48 PM (JQ13U)

103 Did any of you notice that this data is only for the continental US? 1934 beats out 1998 by .02 deg Celsius, but only in the US, minus Alaska & Hawaii. Worldwide, 1934 was not the "Warmest Year in Earth's History," but is actually about the 70th warmest year since 1880. Globally, the hottest years on record are still 2005, 1998 (which, by the way, was .62 deg C warmer than 1934, globally), 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995 (I hope you see the trend).

Posted by: John Ericson at August 14, 2007 06:19 PM (Js0TF)

104 Also, the continental US makes up only 1.7% of the Earth's surface, so a .15 deg C change to the US averages isn't going to have a significant impact on the global avg temps at all.

Posted by: John Ericson at August 14, 2007 06:26 PM (Js0TF)

105 Please Ace, start buying waterfront property. Put your money where your mouth is.

Posted by: Timetheos at August 14, 2007 09:30 PM (Z+bY/)

106 Global warming isn't new to our planet. It is a living planet and is in constant change. The hype about Global warming, in this time of history, is just political.

Posted by: Liz at August 15, 2007 12:41 PM (rTUhW)

107 Liz, "constant change" has been regionally-concentrated, mostly in the form of weather fluctuation, while global CLIMATE has been relatively stable during the holocene. Check out #5 at GlobalWarmingTruth.org

Posted by: Alex N at August 19, 2007 12:48 AM (m6cpE)

108

I enjoyed this site!! I am approaching age 70, and find this subject very interesting. The way the AGW crowd treats data puts me in mind of the old math tool; F used as "raised to the power of". It was affectionately known as FINAGLES' FACTOR, and was very useful doing math. As some of you will remember, F is a VARIABLE CONSTANT, which is used to adjust your answer to the CORRECT value. If your answer was out of range, you raised it to the power of F, and shazam, you get the right answer. Looks like it is still alive and well.

For the record; The AGW people don't care about facts, take away their hockey stick, and they will make another one to beat you with. It's not about facts, it's about what they want.

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Oh. My. Gaia: NASA's Temperature History Completely Wrong; Corrected Figures Show "Warmest Year In Earth's History" Was Not 1998, But Rather... 1934