Just How Important Is GOTV?

Pretty damn important. A very strong GOTV effort can wipe out a 10+ polling deficit:

On November 4, 2002, one day before the election, the Atlanta Journal/WSB-TV poll showed Roy Barnes at 51% and Sonny Perdue at 40%. The internal polling of the Barnes campaign showed similar results. So did the internals of the Perdue campaign, except the Perdue campaign was no longer looking at its internal polling. Instead, the campaign was looking at its GOTV ground game data and knew Perdue would win.
On November 5, 2002, Sonny Perdue beat Roy Barnes 51.4% to 46.3% with the Libertarian taking 2.3% of the vote.

Hit the Geraghty home page and scroll down to see a lot of polling weirdness, as he calls it. Conflicting polls which show someone up by either two points... or eighteen points.

Public polling has been becoming more and more unreliable over the years, due to the growing number of nonresponders.

Who knows, really, where ths election is?

Posted by: Ace at 02:01 PM

Comments

1 The more ubiquitous a thing is, the less interested individuals become in quality.

I still have a VCR, do I care if it's a "good one" or just that it records and plays? My DVD Player? They way I chose it was "which is cheapest."

Polls are so common now, that noone really cares about the quality, they just take the one that serves their purpose and leave.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at October 25, 2006 02:05 PM (QTv8u)

Just posted this elsewhere, but it is apropos to your article.

This is a portion of an article written by Sheldon Drobny, of Air America fame. He normally makes no sense whatsoever, but he is relating some information from Zogby and one other source:

УЕЕ.My discussions with John (Zogby) and another intelligence source who has a contact inside the White House has emailed me his analysis of what is going on behind the scenes. And John Zogby has confirmed that the polling leads are in his terms, "soft." This is the analysis given to me by my source:

"I think we Dems are heading for a catastrophically low turnout. The essential part of Rove's strategy going back decades is polarization and demonization: Dems and independents get disgusted and boycott the polls, the far right, however, gets energized.

Every election, turnout gets lower and lower which suits Rove just fine. Right now, half of all Americans don't register, and half of the registered don't vote. Polarization works. By keeping turnout under 25% of all eligibles, all Rove has to do is mobilize 13% nationally to win. They have used direct mail to update and propagandize their base, a cheap and easy way of updating the database.

Yes, I have been suspiscious of Diebold machines for years, but honestly think the declning turnout is the key to GOP control. Zogby is a pro, he knows that low turnouts means general polling becomes wildly inaccurate. GOP polling of targeted turnout is hugely expensive but superbly accurate. It is time for the Dems to get back to fundamentals. If my White House source is correct, we have squandered our best opportunity to take back Congress."

Rove is confident for a good reasonЕЕ we win.

Posted by: jwest at October 25, 2006 02:13 PM (V3yX9)

3 Who knows, really, where ths election is?

That would be me.

My Bold Prediction:

Republicans gain a seat in the House.
Republicans retain control of the Senate

Posted by: BumperStickerist at October 25, 2006 02:17 PM (dTi2n)

4 I don't think it's non-responders that make polling (specifically, polling used in journalism) so inaccurate. I think push-polling and selective polling has a great deal to do with it. Journalists have a take on their story before starting any research, and will reference polls that back up their take, while minimizing or ignoring polls that run counter to their story.

After all, journalism isn't about reporting news; it's about telling a story. And if reality doesn't fit the moral of the story, the journalist has to make do with whatever else is at hand.

Posted by: Cautiously Pessimistic at October 25, 2006 02:22 PM (JKlMI)

5 Come on Ace. Everybody knows that Rove (PBUH) is using Halliburton to spread false polling numbers in order to undermine the public's confidence in polls in general. That way, when they use Diebold machines to erase billions of democratic votes, the sheeple won't be able to tell that the election has been STOLEN.

When this happens in two weeks, I think we should all TAKE TO THE STREETS. Or move to Canada.

If we do both, I bet we could overthrow the Canadian government in a day or two. How does Ace-istan sound?

Posted by: T-web at October 25, 2006 02:24 PM (57znu)

6 I ran across this on DU yesterday -

My DH is running for state senate and the lack of volunteers is appalling. The state party sends all volunteers to "targeted " congressional races and the rest of us are lucky to get leftovers. Last Monday we had a phone bank with only 4 volunteers and this weekend we had only one volunteer. I see all the whining that is going on, yet I see it is still the GOP who get their people out to work and to the polls.Oh, and another thing, some of the people who have helped our campaign the most have been Republicans and no my DH is not a DINO and they are NOT RINO's, they just want change.

That 50 state strategy seems to be working for Dean-o. The poster is in Phoenix, I believe.

Posted by: rw at October 25, 2006 02:30 PM (aVixU)

7 I am getting more and more of an unsubstantiated gut feeling that the Republicans are going to hold both houses.

Posted by: DaveS at October 25, 2006 02:33 PM (L51+P)

8 My Bold Prediction:

Republicans gain a seat in the House.
Republicans retain control of the Senate

Optimism spoken like a true Reagan (and W!) Republican. Unlike a hand-wringing Jonah Goldberg Republican.

Music to my ears! (eyes?)

Posted by: Beth at October 25, 2006 02:38 PM (yqiXY)

9 November 7 shall be renamed "Exploding Head Day."

Posted by: Slublog at October 25, 2006 02:42 PM (JlFCW)

10 Damn you, New Comments Thingy.

Posted by: jwest at October 25, 2006 02:43 PM (V3yX9)

11 "Who knows, really, where ths election is?" Karl.Rove.

Posted by: RJS2 at October 25, 2006 02:50 PM (nrp0M)

12 Public polling has been becoming more and more unreliable

I can't speak for public polling, but I know my personal pole has become increasingly unreliable as the years go by. Damn I miss morningwood.

Posted by: Sticky B at October 25, 2006 02:51 PM (aa3tL)

and I call dibs on 11/8 of renaming the KR phrase, as D heads explode across the nation and CMatthews ponders responsibility for the loss...Rove. Karl Rove.

Posted by: RJS2 at October 25, 2006 02:52 PM (nrp0M)

Anybody getting tired of blog triumphalism?

Me neither.

Posted by: lauraw at October 25, 2006 02:56 PM (fb0QW)

As much as I expect the Republicans to retain both chambers of Congress, it's unseemly to gloat before the votes are in.

Afterwards, by all means. Gloat and preen and laugh.

Twist the knife.

Posted by: Some Guy at October 25, 2006 03:01 PM (lPxkl)

16 True, it might be best to wait until after we win to gloat.

That said, with the Democrats mere days away from going Scanners all over the country(well maybe not in Alabama)...there will be a high demand for cleanup crews. It won't be pleasant, but anyone wanna start a business?

Posted by: Sinistar at October 25, 2006 03:15 PM (UH/Lq)

17 Looks like you have indeed sacked up compared to earlier posts.

Wouldn't 11/8 be exploding head day?

Posted by: Francase at October 25, 2006 03:24 PM (eRsMQ)

18 That said, with the Democrats mere days away from going Scanners all over the country

The Scanners were created by being drugged up in the womb, so It fits that the Dem's are most likely to become scanners.

Now that I think of it, The Main Character was the only good scanner, and the first scanner he confronts is an artist (I think I'm remembering right) so Man, That movie was about the conservative revolution, when the children of drugged up hippy fucks rebel against their attempts to subvert all free will through oppressive mind control.

Thanks for clearing that up!

Posted by: Wickedpinto at October 25, 2006 03:36 PM (QTv8u)

19 don't worry sticky...i'm still here

Posted by: morning wood at October 25, 2006 03:40 PM (+aNmG)

20 Who knows, really, where ths election is?

Diebold of course.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at October 25, 2006 03:49 PM (AuPsg)

21 Huh? I dunno, I didn't watch the thing. I was just thinking of the dude whos head assploded.

Posted by: Sinistar at October 25, 2006 03:55 PM (UH/Lq)

22 Michael Ironsides, is the SHIZNIT!

Rent it.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at October 25, 2006 04:06 PM (QTv8u)

23 I've been predicting GOP gains in both House and Senate for a few months now. No sane person could possibly vote moonbat in these dangerous times--could they?

Posted by: nikkolai at October 25, 2006 04:07 PM (70wcC)

24 Of course this could be a reverse double-check against Rove. The MSM, sensing potential despair and violent action by their left subscriber base, tries a Rovian fear-strike to get them motivated to vote.

Nah, too much work for them. It must be real.

Posted by: Tom M at October 25, 2006 04:29 PM (d6bNm)

25 I don't know why there's such an accuracy problem with polls. Surely there aren't a lot of Republicans taking the attitude that telling the nice pollsters what they want to hear will mislead the Dems into premature crowing and squabbling over leadership positions, which will make it that much more entertaining when they lose?

Posted by: at October 25, 2006 10:49 PM (3IIk0)

26 You know, the florida supreme court just made a ruling allowing exit polling within 100 feet of preincts. I believe they are going to be doing it at 40 preciincts. My bet is that the precincts are all in south and central FL, ignoring the rest of the state. There may be a couple near Jacksonville or Tallahassee but the rest will be down there.

The results will be the same as they were in 2000. The MSM will scratch their heads and try to figure out how their polling was all wrong.

Throw in a bunch of people, like me, who wil lie if asked, and it really throws them off.

Kane

Posted by: Kanelin at October 26, 2006 05:56 AM (Gnyxq)

Posted by: Mike at October 31, 2006 11:18 AM (MnVVe)

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╟▀╚╤ у╠уц┌╔ ╒ц╤ ╩╒╟уэу [ ╚ф╟╩ ╘╚╟╚ ╟╪▌╟с ╪╚э┌х ] ╟╬╩╒╟╤╟╩ у╟╙ф╠╤ ф╒э╔ ╒ц╤ ╩ц╟▐э┌ у╙с╙с ╟у ╟с╚ф╟╩

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