So, Why Does Tom Barrett Keep Releasing Internals

When Nate Silver doesn't really buy them?

There are a few reasons here.

1- He must stop the depression of the Democratic base, particularly outside of his core areas of support (Madison and Milwaukee). Each public poll that gobbles up air time showing Walker leading, and leading, and leading, takes its toll on the recall forces. People devoted to a cause absolutely will be there for you, but those who may not want to show up if they think its hopeless? The more of those voters Barrett can't count on, the smaller his chances of winning (smaller that they already are).

2- Blunting the public polling tsunami indicating Walker will crush him.

This is the Pollster/HuffPo chart showing the trend line and all polls for Walker V Barrett. The race seems close:

But what happens when you eliminate all the "internals" that Barrett keeps whispering about?

Walker's lead nearly doubles, and trends out to a potential double-digit landslide.

3- Attempt to build a last-minute narrative of "coming from behind". His last internal had him down three, but this one, this one only has him down two! Oh joy! Note that even in his OWN internals, Walker's number doesn't drop. He still gets 50%, and with third party votes out there, Barrett still loses, even closely. However, he could push a poll next week showing him up 1, and regain some of the lost enthusiasm already alluded above in the final days.

I am rather surprised no developments in the John Doe case "shocked" the world this week. Rather, biting investigations on the crime trends in Barrett's city took center stage for two straight days (when news of Walker's growing standing wasn't, that is). The last few weeks reminds me of 2008, but in reverse. In October, I and others on the right kept trying to pick apart polls for having "skewed R/D ratios" and questioning sample sizes. I would latch onto "internals" knowing in my gut they weren't true. But hey, I wanted to believe it. We all went through the five stages, and we are seeing a lot of that now on lefty sites like FireDogLake and DailyKos. One thing I didn't mention in either of my "things helping Walker" threads had been held back because I wasn't quite seeing it yet, but I sure do now:

Inevitability. The reality that Walker will probably win is dawning on his own opponents and has been discussed at length on MSNBC, Huffington Post, Kos, FDL, DU, CNN, Politico, local news and other sites and sources too numerous to count. The sense that the Governor is going to beat the recall is very real now, and with prognosticators more professional than me calling it as such, solid efforts by the recall forces to pull a final-week script switch are evaporating.

This is far from the time to get cocky. Barrett and his supporters won't likely make any big moves, nor his supporters, in the coming week. Everything from here to electoral judgement day is centered on getting the voters to the polls for early voting, getting the absentee ballots filed, and contacting those who must show up on June 5th. Walker's supporters have done an incredible job, and will continue to do so, in doing the same. If you haven't visited his site and donated, do so in the waning days. If you worry about shenanigans and can volunteer time as a poll watcher, do it. Most of all, if you reside in Wisconsin, come hell, high water, or a cheese and beer shortage, you must vote.

Posted by: CAC at 10:08 PM



Comments

1 Which one is gay?

Posted by: eman at May 24, 2012 10:10 PM (XrDou)

2 I got your poll right heah.

Posted by: USS Diversity at May 24, 2012 10:10 PM (cjTjM)

3 I shamelessly took this from a commenter ("Sekhmet") at Hot Air, but this needs to be the theme song if Walker wins by a wide margin:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sEI1AUFJKw

Posted by: The Lost Dutchman at May 24, 2012 10:11 PM (9F2c1)

4 This doesn't look like the ONT.

Posted by: Tami at May 24, 2012 10:12 PM (X6akg)

5 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at May 24, 2012 10:12 PM (7W3wI)

6

Broseph, you gonna get arrested for harrassment if you keep this up.

Posted by: soothsayer at May 24, 2012 10:14 PM (xIzGn)

7 Hey. I gots to know.

Posted by: Punk on sidewalk in Dirty Harry at May 24, 2012 10:15 PM (cjTjM)

8 Suck my green lantern of flaming magic greg.

Posted by: Alan ladd at May 24, 2012 10:15 PM (c9Ivb)

9 How many polls could a woodchuck poll if a woodchuck could chuck polls?

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at May 24, 2012 10:15 PM (Dll6b)

10 Where is the Tetris game?

Posted by: fluffy at May 24, 2012 10:16 PM (z9HTb)

11 Just gotta show and vote. Dems are trying to get everyone worried with early voting. If walker supporters show as expected to vote, It won't be close. I am figuring 2points of fraud, but it only keeps walker from winning by double digits.

Posted by: H Badger at May 24, 2012 10:18 PM (U1PU6)

12 My prediction is that developments in the "John Doe" case will be released shortly after June 6 and will show that Walker's 'associates' who were embezzling or whatever and Walker informed the DA were either A) appointed by someone else B) elected Dems or C) union positions. If there was any Walker dirt there I think the investigator would be leaking it, giving a reason why the whole thing has to made public before the election. IMO no details means the best they can do is keep up the sly innuendo until after the vote.

Posted by: PaleRider at May 24, 2012 10:18 PM (dkExz)

13 So, who would have thought it.

Standing up to the left, and enacting conservative policies, even in a formally blue state, works.

Are you listening Republican party?

Posted by: 18-1 at May 24, 2012 10:23 PM (3aXbg)

14 I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago just before the primary, but I'll add it again. While driving up along the western border of WI, I have NEVER seen so many signs of support for a Republican candidate in my life. "We Stand with Walker" signs everywhere. I sense that the motivation has been building and that these voters will show up.

Posted by: Moonbeam at May 24, 2012 10:32 PM (1k4dd)

15 13
So, who would have thought it.

Standing up to the left, and enacting conservative policies, even in a formally blue state, works.

Are you listening Republican party?



Posted by: 18-1 at May 24, 2012 10:23 PM (3aXbg)
***********************

The fuck you say? We're listenin' for Cain to get back with the chicks.

Hey, Herb! You got them broads lined up yet?

Posted by: Boomer Redneque brings his Amazing Threadkill™ Powers to a new thread at May 24, 2012 10:50 PM (eQnzo)

16 Damn! Sock fail

Posted by: The RNC at May 24, 2012 10:50 PM (eQnzo)

17 God, how I wish California voters would have a similar epiphany.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at May 24, 2012 10:56 PM (uMVcg)

18 Now what the media is going to try to do is somehow spin this Walker victory as a Walker disappointment. "Oh boy, he should have won by 11 points instead of 6 points. This is bad news for Mitt Romney." Or some such nonsense. They always do it. Barret should not just be beaten but beaten down so that he NEVER dares run for statewide office again. This is up to you folks in Wisconsin. Deliver a stinging rebuke the Dems and the Unions so that not even the MSM can spin it.

Posted by: Sean at May 24, 2012 11:00 PM (HXwLc)

19 You know who else releases fake internals to bolster his own image? Sean Bielat.

Posted by: Truman North at May 24, 2012 11:11 PM (I2LwF)

20 I bet Obama went out for a golf game when he saw this. And The Obesity Czar is fiquring on how to fill her coffer before the white house door hits The Butt In Chief before when they drag her away from the silver chest.

Posted by: pat at May 25, 2012 12:51 AM (UFxap)

21 June 5th: Carousel or Sanctuary

Posted by: ChampionCapua at May 25, 2012 01:00 AM (KZi9D)

22 Let's do this.

Posted by: Drunk Minnesotan at May 25, 2012 10:31 AM (tRce/)






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