Obama Up 7, 49-42, On Gallup, But Over Weekend Polling

It's an old saw which I happen to think is true that weekend polling results in a more liberal skew. So before I cut my throat, I'll wait to see if Gallup's numbers shift back to Romney as Friday, Saturday, and Sunday's figures drop off the track.

Allah links to a Washington Post purported election model. You enter guesses as to what you think Obama's job approval rating, and the GDP rate of growth, will be on election day, and that predicts, supposedly, Obama's odds of victory.

According to the model, his odds of winning are high. As Allah notes, you have to assume a job approval rate of 45% (likely) and 0.0% growth (unlikely but possible) before Obama's odds of winning drop, fractionally, below 50%.

Here's my problem with that.

First, we have to look at the typical business cycle. It begins with a recession, and then proceeds to a recovery. After that comes a period of expansion, and then stagnation, and then a new recession.

But the recession/recovery usually has a V shape -- the economy drops in activity fairly precipitously, but then regains in activity also quite rapidly. Thus forming a "V." Quick stroke down, quick stroke up.

A real recovery is marked by rapid growth-- 5.5%, 7%, even 8 or 9% -- as the economy quickly makes up for past losses and rises back up to about where it had been before the recession.

Now, that is critical -- that a recovery usually brings the economy back to where it had been before the recession. Because after the recovery comes a growth or expansion phase of around 3%. Now, that's 3% of real expansion, of new dollars, new wealth. Because the economy had already recovered, so any amount you add -- 2.5%, 3.0% -- it's all to the good. It's all new wealth.

2.5% - 3.5% growth is what you expect out of an economy in the expansion phase. Such growth figures are good. The economy is growing -- great!

The Washington Post model assumes that such rates of growth will be good for Obama.

I do not believe this assumption.

Because, in the past, 2.5%-3.5% growth was new economic growth above and beyond the previous level of the economy.

Obama has not presided over a proper recovery. I don't think the term "recovery" really applies here. It's an L-shaped recession, a severe drop down and then a horizontal eking along the bottom.

Yes, there's some feeble growth -- 2.5%, 1.7%, 0.4%, whatever the quarterly rate might be in a quarter.

But note the missing thing here -- at no point has the economy actually rebounded to its past levels. If that happened, 2.0% growth might be considered "Meh, not bad, but I'll take it."

But given that the economy has never actually recovered, it's a mistake to assume that the 2.5-3.5% growth rates we typically see in an expansion following an actual recovery are acceptable in an expansion along the bottom, that is, an expansion, yes, but from the previous low created by the recession, and not the previous high established pre-recession.

You know?

In a normal economy -- say, Clinton's -- 2.5% growth would be acceptable because, by the time of November 1996, we'd already recovered from the 1991 recession (in fact, we had almost fully recovered before the election) and were now just adding on to that.

That's not true here.

We have 8+% unemployment -- really 10%, and really 15% by the real unemployment figures.

That's not normal in an "expansion."

Because this isn't an expansion. It did not follow a recovery.

So it is a mistake to think that 1.7% is going to cut it for Mr. Obama.

Posted by: Ace at 04:51 PM



Comments

1 These polls mean nothing. There is a new poll every day. Have we really run out of naked women to talk about?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at April 24, 2012 04:53 PM (i6RpT)

2
It shouldn't be this close.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 24, 2012 04:53 PM (jUytm)

3

it won't even be close. Obama is a soiled diaper. He's gone.

All polls are going to be "weighted"into oblivion between now and then, even teh republicans' polls.

Posted by: imp at April 24, 2012 04:54 PM (UaxA0)

4 Closer than a dog's whisker. Or not.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at April 24, 2012 04:54 PM (U/ZJP)

5 wow, I'm in early! with nothin to say, as usual.

Posted by: jeanne...meh at April 24, 2012 04:55 PM (GdalM)

6 *squirt*

Posted by: A. Weiner at April 24, 2012 04:56 PM (jucos)

7 ya know what, I think a big chunk of the 52 percent are going to get all sentimental and double down on O, just go into blind love mode.

Posted by: jeanne...meh at April 24, 2012 04:56 PM (GdalM)

8 It's an old saw which I happen to think is true that weekend polling results in a more liberal skew.

IIRC, the story is that conservatives are out having fun andliving their lives, while liberals are inside, watching TV and wating for pollsters to call.

Posted by: Lance McCormick at April 24, 2012 04:56 PM (zgHLA)

9
This is a nice read over at the right scoop

Wapo’s Jennifer Rubin shreds Obama’s disingenuous Holocaust speech

http://tinyurl.com/6t32qz6

Posted by: voters don't care at April 24, 2012 04:56 PM (HOOye)

10 Boing!

Posted by: dead cat at April 24, 2012 04:56 PM (O6q63)

11 Allah needs to retrieve his balls from Malkin's desk drawer.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at April 24, 2012 04:57 PM (ebPtk)

12 >>>ya know what, I think a big chunk of the 52 percent are going to get all sentimental and double down on O, just go into blind love mode.

a big chuck, of course! But take 5% from Obama and give it to Romney and it's a huge victory going the other way.

Is there a 5% chunk of Obama's 53.5% vote share that is NOT in love with him, but expects results?

Sure there is.

Posted by: ace at April 24, 2012 04:57 PM (nj1bB)

13 Don't buy it. JEF is going down. His disdainful approach to a majority of this country is going to sink him.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at April 24, 2012 04:57 PM (jucos)

14 The big problem if Barky is 'down' in the polls for weeks.....would be what he might do out of desperation, to get his poll numbers up.

Posted by: wheatie at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (O4AQQ)

15 Remember how well loved Jimmy was?
Everybody thought he was just such a great guy. Great smile. Means well. He's really, really sincere. And his brother! What a card.

Then there's Ronald Reagan.
Crazy old guy who wants to put his boney old finger on the red button of Armageddon. Was in a movie with a chimp. Ya gotta be kidding me. Running for president? He puts kiwi boot polish in his hair?

Funny thing happened on the way to the polls. Nobody admitted to voting for Jimmy after a couple of years, and nobody admitted to not voting for him after 4. It just "sort of happened".

Posted by: Clutch Cargo at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (Qxdfp)

16 Allah links to a Washington Post purported election model. You enter guesses as to what you think Obama's job approval rating, and the GDP rate of growth, will be on election day, and that predicts, supposedly, Obama's odds of victory.

And if you act now you'll get our exclusive climate prediction model, absolutely free with the purchase of every 2012 Election Outcome Predictor.

Posted by: The East Anglia Scientific Model and Motivational Seminar Co. at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (QKKT0)

17 Eh, polls before the conventions are over are just mental exercises. Which I'm saying because I find these polls to be alarming and disgusting.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (RD7QR)

18 So, this was a just and fair poll, correct? Well, it's on the internet, so it MUST be true.

Posted by: © Sponge at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (UK9cE)

19 No hang-wringing from me (or conversely; excitement) over poll numbers....seven months before an election.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (pLTLS)

20 Allah's curled up in a fetal position over at Hot Air because of this poll. The man is not going to make it til November.

Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (ZHge+)

21 A Washington Post poll in favor of Obama? Wow, I never saw that coming.

Posted by: Thomas at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (FXmnX)

22

http://tinyurl.com/d2lruja

Look at how this woman was on the verge of death, but casually walks away...

Posted by: voters don't care at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (HOOye)

23 Allahpundit is a secret Obama supporter. Allahpundit is as much a conservative as Olympis Snowe and Susan Collins.

Posted by: Red Mosquito at April 24, 2012 04:59 PM (jo0fs)

24 The man is being called out on his lousy record and phony distractions on almost a daily basis.

The economy is in the shitter, our foreign policy is nonexistent, our enemies are emboldened, friends abandoned, government growing bigger and more intrusive by the day and our sacred Constitution shredded before our eyes.

And SCOAMF is ahead.

NO. FUCKING. WAY. The polls are fake.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at April 24, 2012 04:59 PM (Af3Wg)

25 2 It shouldn't be this close.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 24, 2012 04:53 PM (jUytm)

You don't go to the polls with theconservative you want, you go to the polls with Mitt Romney because he has the money and endorsements.

Posted by: Lance McCormick at April 24, 2012 04:59 PM (zgHLA)

26 What was the news that came out today or yesterday? That 50% of college graduates don't have any job, let alone in a decent job? Yeah. That's fantastic news for Obama.

Posted by: alexthechick at April 24, 2012 04:59 PM (VtjlW)

27 Recovery? Are you still in denial, dude?

We're going to bounce along the bottom until Doom.

Posted by: runninrebel at April 24, 2012 04:59 PM (N/1Dm)

28 Barky's getting a bump from Hookergate. Nice photo linked in handle. Well, not nice-nice, but nice.

Posted by: Beefy Meatball at April 24, 2012 05:00 PM (yn6XZ)

29 He's never been 7. His TMI is around a 5.5.
...and that's like affirmative action for penis measuring.

Posted by: Michelle Obama's Landing Strip at April 24, 2012 05:00 PM (6pIqp)

30 I should say JEF's approach is worse than disdainful, it's dismissive. No one likes to be dismissed.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at April 24, 2012 05:00 PM (jucos)

31 There just doesn't seem to be anything over the last week that would switch independents that quickly unless they really, really like the idea of eating dogs. But if it's the case that they heard Romney was now the nominee and they went to Obama then we just might be screwed.

Posted by: booger at April 24, 2012 05:00 PM (HI6wa)

32 Polls right now are for nothing but election hype. Keeps the talking heads in the news rooms with something they can talk about. It's nothing more than that.

$3.50/gal. gasoline. That's where this so-called pole would fall on it's ass.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:00 PM (Nnlm1)

33 If this douche wins it will be a triumph for what we call a media lying to everyone. They lied about the Martin case, they lied about the Iraq war, they lie and don't report anything that doesnt fit their cock sucking liberal narrative. Obama is great, nothing is his fault that is bad, all that is good is because of him. Rinse, repeat, until November and beyond.

I mean they are literally doctoring fucking tapes, editing people so they appear to be racist monsters. Do you not think they will tamper with a number or two to make it appear if the economy is doing better, or to lie and tell you everyone loves Obama so there is no use voting? Fuck no they won't and they are already doing it now.

Posted by: Mr. Pink at April 24, 2012 05:01 PM (lj8le)

34 As I was walking out the door earlier today, I saw Fox asking PA voters who they'd support. One fat, bald-headed douche said Barky would win "in a landslide." Ugh.

Today I did see a few more Barky 2012 stickers. I gave the drivers my usual disdainful look. Like they care.

Just ugh, ugh, ugh.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:01 PM (UOM48)

35 Look, from here to election, 90% of the polls will show Obama up/leading. The only question will be how much they have to skew the D/R/I number.

Which makes me wonder why polls even matter. Just sample 50/50/0 and call the results 50/50 +/- margin.

Why bother with the results if the only thing that matters is the weighing of D/R/I? "Our polls show O+2 because we did D+2." "Our poll shows R+4 because we did R+4."

Posted by: Tonic Dog at April 24, 2012 05:01 PM (X/+QT)

36 If a poll bounces up and down this much, it's a bad poll with bad methodology.

I think Gallup does this on purpose to get in the news.

Posted by: AmishDude at April 24, 2012 05:01 PM (T0NGe)

37
I don't understand why some of you dismiss polls.
Polls are useful. For instance, this poll tell us we have a lot of work to do.

It also tells us that a lot of people don't hate Obama, and if they don't hate Obama by now, nothing is going to change their minds in the next 6 months.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 24, 2012 05:01 PM (jUytm)

38 pole = poll

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:01 PM (Nnlm1)

39 Alternate explanation: voters more sympathetic to eating dog than previously suspected.

Posted by: JonathanEllis at April 24, 2012 05:02 PM (BdzEV)

40 Does someone have a map of unemployment numbers by state? The overall numbers are bad for Team Barry, but if enough swing states are doing better or worse than the average, that could be decisive.

Posted by: Lance McCormick at April 24, 2012 05:02 PM (zgHLA)

41 Perception is reality. The optics and the narrative are what matters. If I can convince you that things are on the up swing, manufacturing is coming back, the borders are no longer a problem, the race situation is being addressed, well then "aren't I entitled to a chance to finish what I started, for you?".

Romney and the GOP have their work cut out for them. And seeing a headline that bohner doesn't think they can hold the House doesn't help romney et al one iota.

Posted by: dally, who does not enjoy paying so much tax at April 24, 2012 05:03 PM (oZfic)

42 According to the model, his odds of winning are high. As Allah notes, you have to assume a job approval rate of 45% (likely) and 0.0% growth (unlikely but possible) before Obama's odds of winning drop, fractionally, below 50%.

Here's my problem with that.


****************

You should have waaaaaay more problems with this national[/i[ model or formula.

All politics is local.

We have the electoral college.


What matters most is the economic conditions of the "swing states".


Ohio, PA, VA, FLA, --NV.

Obama should have a hell of a time in Nevada.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:03 PM (r2PLg)

43
We're only 6 months away from the election and if the election were held today, Obama would win.

That's what these polls tell us.

We need to get our asses in gear and change things, fast.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 24, 2012 05:03 PM (jUytm)

44 Gas prices are flat to falling, which is probably helping a lot even though the price is still high.

Posted by: JonathanEllis at April 24, 2012 05:03 PM (BdzEV)

45 The mere fact that 49% are for Obama on weekend polls suggests to me that beer goggles apply to political candidates.

Posted by: WheelmanForHire at April 24, 2012 05:03 PM (l8nIR)

46 Posted by: Mr. Pink at April 24, 2012 05:01 PM (lj8le)


The difference now is that a growing majority of Americans are wise to this shit.

I think.

I hope.

I pray.

Please....

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at April 24, 2012 05:04 PM (Af3Wg)

47 It also tells us that a lot of people don't hate
Obama, and if they don't hate Obama by now, nothing is going to change
their minds in the next 6 months.





Posted by: soothsayer at April 24, 2012 05:01 PM (jUytm)

Yes, this, unfortunately. A lot of people just don't make the association between Barky and the state of the nation, if they pay attention to that at all.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at April 24, 2012 05:04 PM (RD7QR)

48 O/T Bob Beckel just said that Jon Lovitz shouldn't use language like that and that he should "get a grip".

Either Beckel is ridiculously un-self-aware, or he is in on the joke and he is mocking himself and therefore worthy of a moron smile.


Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:04 PM (O3R/2)

49 80 percent of the population won't take a sustained look at the candidates until a week before the election. And when they look at the Dogeater in Chief, I don't think the impression he leaves will be a good one. I expect to see a full-scale collapse of his numbers when low-info voters finally look around and ask themselves whether O'Dickhead deserves another term.

I'm not losing any sleep over the Washington Fluffer's polling propaganda seven months before the election.

Posted by: Cicero at April 24, 2012 05:04 PM (QKKT0)

50
OTOH, never underestimate the stupidity of (majority of ) American voters.

SCFOAMT won once, he can win again.

Posted by: Jaws at April 24, 2012 05:05 PM (4I3Uo)

51 20 Allah's curled up in a fetal position over at Hot Air because of this poll. The man is not going to make it til November.
Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at April 24, 2012 04:58 PM (ZHge+)
--------------

Perhaps not a boxing match between ACE and Allahpundit, but an UFC match (much cooler imho).

Posted by: everybody's doin' it at April 24, 2012 05:06 PM (HOOye)

52
A lot of people just don't make the association between Barky and the state of the nation

And the blame for that rests squarely on the opposition party.

The reason people don't hate Obama is the GOP's failure to make the simple case.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 24, 2012 05:06 PM (jUytm)

53 It really will all depend on if the voters come Novemeber believe they are better off than they were four years ago. I highly doubt that will be the case.

Posted by: Auntie Doodles at April 24, 2012 05:06 PM (6uXZa)

54 Html makes me dyslexic-aaaargh


42 According to the model, his odds of winning are high. As Allah notes, you have to assume a job approval rate of 45% (likely) and 0.0% growth (unlikely but possible) before Obama's odds of winning drop, fractionally, below 50%.

Here's my problem with that.

****************

You should have waaaaaay more problems with this national model or formula.

All politics is local.

We have the electoral college.


What matters most is the economic conditions of the "swing states".


Ohio, PA, VA, FLA, --NV.

Obama should have a hell of a time in Nevada.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:06 PM (r2PLg)

55 How many of those polled are unemployed, and what was the breakdown?

Posted by: S Daniel at April 24, 2012 05:07 PM (BVkEs)

56 I had a dream last night. Seriously. There was a thought that "yeah, we all have jobs now, but we're not making as much money as before."


Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:07 PM (O3R/2)

57 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:07 PM (8y9MW)

58 This is bullshit. Rasmussen has them at:

Romney: 48%
Obama : 44%

I think Gallup and the rest are "factoring" way too much. I would love to see their model and what factors they use for each group.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at April 24, 2012 05:07 PM (f9c2L)

59

So, Planned Parenthood has some competition, hehe.

Everyone is fighting back.

http://tinyurl.com/6r8zmva

This is a feel good story.

Posted by: polls are irrelly right now at April 24, 2012 05:07 PM (HOOye)

60 Yes, this, unfortunately. A lot of people just don't make the association between Barky and the state of the nation, if they pay attention to that at all.
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at April 24, 2012 05:04 PM (RD7QR)

Why would they, nothing is connected to King Barry when they read the paper or watch the news. Next time you see a report on the Secret Service, count how many times they mention Barrys name. Next time you see gas prices, count how many times you hear or see his name. I mean maybe on Fox but that's about it. Hell I saw them mention Palin's name on a story about the Secret Service once but not Obamas. Fucking hilarious if it wasnt so infuriating.

Posted by: Mr. Pink at April 24, 2012 05:08 PM (lj8le)

61 It would be interesting to input the economic "facts" of say Nevada into the WaPo model.

What does that look like?

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:08 PM (r2PLg)

62 Was on a liberal blog, reading about the six bank foreclosure settlement, looks like even the true believers are unimpressed with Obama's economic "leadership":

Seriously, “look forward, not backward” has metastasized into a complete destruction of the rule of law in this country. I really couldn’t care less what happens in November. In fact, I’m thinking the optimal outcome is that the Republicans control both houses and begin impeachment proceedings.God knows they have enough material to work with.

Posted by: kallisto at April 24, 2012 05:08 PM (jm/9g)

63 AND Romney is not even the nominee yet. Give him a chance to get in some more campaigning and see how he does. If his team is crack on slapping back the Obama team, he will build up steam quickly. Especially if they seem to be having fun doing it, like in the dog kefuffle.

Posted by: Auntie Doodles at April 24, 2012 05:08 PM (6uXZa)

64 Polls can say anything you want them to say. Look at the internals, and do your own math. I've got an old statistics textbook around somewhere I can lend you. Polls are for driving opinion, not reporting- and only chumps and fraidy cats are moved by them.

Posted by: Beefy Meatball at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (yn6XZ)

65 I was really hoping the comments at HA would come around after the primaries wrapped up, but now every thread is a cesspool of ABR types furiously masturbating to every post indicating that Romney's not going to win in a walk and finding some reason to defecate all over every other post. I appreciate the ABR argument, but for fuck's sake there's only so many times it can be repeated over and over.

At least ABR Morons around here can shift gears every once in a while.

Posted by: Xander Crews at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (cfnVv)

66
But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!!!!









all your poll are belong to us

Posted by: In before the troll at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (tQoT4)

67 The best thing we can do till the election is point out how the lib-media and the Barky administration are Lying to us.

People can see the inflation....or at least feel it....whenever they are buying something. ....Yet, the government figures don't reflect how bad it is.

The DNCmedia is lying about how high the real unemployment figures are. ....Lying about how bad the economy really is. .....And they covered up [lied about] Barky's background in order to get him elected in '08.

I think it is actually a good thing that the Romney folks are talking about the Left-wing Bias in the media. .....It sets the stage for talking about how they are lying about basically....everything.

Posted by: wheatie at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (O4AQQ)

68 I still have plans in place just in case the dogeater wins.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (Nnlm1)

69 I'm not worrying about polls at this point. Really, what can you do even if they show the JEF is a lock? I dunno, maybe make Romney calls in swing states or somesuch. A lot of it is out of our hands other than continuing to call them on their lies.

The idea that the economy is growing is a plain farce. Deficit spending for the last 3 years has exceeded 7% of GDP each year. So what would GDP look like with a balanced budget?

It's a moot point because we will not see a balanced budget, let alone a reduction in debt, in the next 30 years (Ryan plan).....or more realistically, never.

Posted by: GnuBreed at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (ccXZP)

70 All this is background noise. Remember, Obama eats dog was not in this poll.

We might as well play cards, nothings go to happen till Sept.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (hXJOG)

71 I tend to want to sneak in the enemy camp and try to figure out what they're plotting. So far, based on the tv ads here in my own state -- which has a primary today -- I note the following strategy by the bankrupt socialists:

Run against George Bush
Promise women anything they want
Ignore whatever the unemployment rate is
Pretend that '♫ happy days are here again ♫'

Well, we will see what the 'low information' voters in the middle have to say. Pennsylvania could very well be a harbinger of November.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at April 24, 2012 05:10 PM (phlKA)

72 think Gallup and the rest are "factoring" way too much. I would love to see their model and what factors they use for each group

What I would like to see is what they expect the turnout to be among a) African-Americans and b) college age kids. If they are using 2008 turnout, then this is crap. Why --- because you are not going to get the turnout among those groups in 2012 as you did in 2008. The desire to go cast a "historic" vote is not the same as the desire to case a re-election vote. The fact that Obama is having trouble raising the money they anticipated shows that among the base, the enthusiasm for Obama model 2012 is not the same as Obama model 2008.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at April 24, 2012 05:10 PM (OWjjx)

73 Wapo’s Jennifer Rubin shreds Obama’s disingenuous Holocaust speech

As we rally round Brother Mitt, who we thought were panderers are now are allies.

Strange bedfellows indeed.

Posted by: John P. Squibob at April 24, 2012 05:10 PM (Q2thU)

74 Remember how well loved Jimmy was?

Uh, no, actually, I don't. He wasn't. He was deeply unpopular, Bush 43 unpopular, and the press didn't shill for him like they do Barry. They were committed lefties but still reported things like the economy accurately and Jimmy was mercilessly skewered by just about everyone. And Republicans were far less docile, civil, gracious, reachy-outy creatures they are today. And also, where were all those pro-Obama stay-at-home weekenders last weekend when Mitt was up by 5?

Posted by: JoeofPA at April 24, 2012 05:10 PM (a3IXr)

75 68
I still have plans in place just in case the dogeater wins.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (Nnlm1)

Mine include Jack Daniels and despair.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM (RD7QR)

76 I find the promises made election model more reliable. It also works for all offices not just the Presidency. Take the campaign slogans and promises from the last election. Look at how closely the candidate followed expectations. The wider the gap the lower the chance of reelection.

Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM (VaB38)

77
-Direction of the Country is in the high teens.
-Gas is $4/gal
-Unemployment has been record-high for 3 straight years.

Yet Obama approvals are still in the high 40's. This is remarkable (and illogical) and should not be ignored.

If we can't remedy this phenomenon of this strange disconnect between Obama and Obama's failures, we will lose...again.

Posted by: soothsayer at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM (jUytm)

78 A lot can happen between now and November and it will. I know we can count on a bunch of crap from the MSM about Romney,but that can go both ways.There's plenty of stuff in Obama's' closet and it is beginning to ooze out just a bit.Wish Breitbart was here, but I know a lot of his "people" are on it.

Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM (ZHge+)

79 I got your pole right here, baby!


Judge Wade Ntume.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM (Af3Wg)

80 68
I still have plans in place just in case the dogeater wins.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (Nnlm1



Please share. Does it involve moving to another country? Because I may have to club D'oh over the head if we lose and drag him with me.

Where's alexthechick? I'm down with Alextopia.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM (UOM48)

81 In my view you can get far better polling analysis from Jay Cost at The Weekly Standard, and Sean Trende( if that’s his real name) at Real Clear Politics than you’ll get from Nate Silver at WashPO.

I assume Silver wrote the WashPO calculator.

Just last week Cost made a strong case about some of Silvers assumptions not jibing with reality.

Posted by: Mike in CFL at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM (motsG)

82 Look at how this woman was on the verge of death, but casually walks away...

Most Europeans are clinically depressed.


Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:12 PM (O3R/2)

83 This poll kicks me in the boner.

Posted by: eleven at April 24, 2012 05:12 PM (KXm42)

84 Maybe I suffer from "epistemic closure" but I cannot believe the polls are this close andthat the SCOAFM even has a prayer of winning. I guess that is the power of having the MFM act as his campaign PR firmand then half of the country dependent on redistribution of wealth. The fact that he is even in the game at all is a sad testament to the state of affairs. Bread and circuses has been replaced by government cheese and American Idol.
*shaking head*

Posted by: Anabolic State at April 24, 2012 05:12 PM (FP495)

85
Pennsylvania could very well be a harbinger of November.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at April 24, 2012 05:10 PM (phlKA)


Voter turnout is very low in NEPA today.

Posted by: Ed Anger - Certified Kos Kid at April 24, 2012 05:12 PM (7+pP9)

86 Posted by: John P. Squibob at April 24, 2012 05:10 PM (Q2thU)

The friend of my enemy's friend is now a friend of my friend's enemy's friend. And his enema.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at April 24, 2012 05:13 PM (Af3Wg)

87 We're still in a depression. Barry is toast.

Posted by: toby928© at April 24, 2012 05:13 PM (NG097)

88 Polls can say anything you want them to say. Look at the internals, and do your own math. I've got an old statistics textbook around somewhere I can lend you. Polls are for driving opinion, not reporting- and only chumps and fraidy cats are moved by them.
Posted by: Beefy Meatball at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (yn6XZ)

---------------------------------------

All one has to do is take a Statistics 101 class to find out how numbers can be skewed to the outcome one wants.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:14 PM (Nnlm1)

89 I will just say this. I am a small business owner. The economy for small businesses just dropped off the cliff over the last month or so. It is worse than it was when the market tanked and we were in the height of the recession. This comes from talking to a lot of other business owners.

Right now people feel pretty good because the market is doing OK. Money is cheap and a good bit of the rise is just the fact that the dollar is worth less and things were overly sold during the scare. But what happens at the small business level is what happens to the economy. Unless it is just something my industry is going through I would expect the numbers to get "unexpectedly" worse as they come in over the next month or so.

Posted by: Voluble at April 24, 2012 05:14 PM (c8WV/)

90 Where can I get a bumper sticker that says:

Romney 2012: He didn't eat dog.

?

Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:14 PM (O3R/2)

91 Seriously.

Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:14 PM (O3R/2)

92 Even if SCOAMF were to publicly piss on Alinsky's grave, nuke Teheran and personally dig the Keystone pipeline with a spoon, he'd still lose.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at April 24, 2012 05:14 PM (Af3Wg)

93 Are they going to wait until after the election to tell public employees that their retirement benefits are not sustainable?

Posted by: dally, who does not enjoy paying so much tax at April 24, 2012 05:15 PM (oZfic)

94 I think thats a pretty good analysis, Ace. I originally wrote a 3 paragraph essay on the state of my manufacturing business, but suffice it to say it got hot 6 months ago and now it is flat. Double dip.

Posted by: maddogg at April 24, 2012 05:15 PM (OlN4e)

95 I see the troll who says she's going to laugh and laugh when Obama beats Romney is here.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:16 PM (UOM48)

96 How about "Romney 2012, he's eaten pussy, but never touched a dog."

Posted by: maddogg at April 24, 2012 05:16 PM (OlN4e)

97 Romney 2012: Not a Commie

Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:17 PM (UOM48)

98 90
Where can I get a bumper sticker that says:

Romney 2012: He didn't eat dog.

I love that. A couple of days ago Luccianne had a picture of a dog in a hoody and it said "If I had a dog, it would look like the dog Obama ate." Pretty funny..

Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at April 24, 2012 05:17 PM (ZHge+)

99 @90

Obama's The ONE
Who eats dog, Mitt 2012

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at April 24, 2012 05:17 PM (hXJOG)

100 Please share. Does it involve moving to another country? Because I may have to club D'oh over the head if we lose and drag him with me.Where's alexthechick? I'm down with Alextopia.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM (UOM4

--------------------------------------------

It is somewhere other than here. If the dogeater does win, I'll wait around a bit to see if there's some sort of massive breakaway from DC, but if it looks like this nation has surrendered to totalitarianism, I'm gone.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:18 PM (Nnlm1)

101 The friend of my enemy's friend is now a friend of my friend's enemy's friend. And his enema.

Who goes there, friend or enema?

Posted by: John P. Squibob at April 24, 2012 05:18 PM (Q2thU)

102 Polls... who cares. This calculator though? I'd like to know what they used to determine, because I have seen previous statements regarding the absolute need for certain conditions to be in place before an incumbent will be reelected. For example, 8% unemployment = no way he's reelected. The thing regarding growth, it's not the numbers, it's the perceived growth, and what that means is that growth had to have occurred months/quarters before the effects are felt. In essence, the incumbent needs to have seen certain numbers jump long before election day, and as far as I know they haven't. Realistically, Obama is past the point of no return. It doesn't matter if the economy roars back this Spring/Summer/Fall because of the lag. He needed it to roar LAST YEAR, and it didn't. Period. He's toast.

Posted by: BurtTC at April 24, 2012 05:18 PM (TOk1P)

103 If we are correct and we had balls, we could make some serious coin on Intrade.

Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:18 PM (O3R/2)

104 They stuffed the ballot box in 08 and had the NBPP stationed outside the polls. Then Holder dropped the case against them. That was a test run and McCain didn't press the case. They'll do it again in 2012 on another level and Romney will do the same.

Posted by: Paul at April 24, 2012 05:19 PM (E4hvL)

105 Between my tiny apartment, my BMI of 158, and my 176 cats, I always laugh and laugh. Those cats squirming between me and the walls is very ticklish!

Posted by: dally, who does not enjoy telling the truth at April 24, 2012 05:19 PM (ggRof)

106 THAR' SHE BLOWS!!

Posted by: weft cut-loop at April 24, 2012 05:19 PM (ebPtk)

107 Gallup also got taken to the woodshed in public by Axeldouche. I bet some calls were made as well. The Chicago Way. Hence, weighting adjustments have also been made so that, er, Gallup doesn't "lose any biz". Just saying. Also, even CNN notes-with their love sauce-that Barky is at only 50% of the draw in Chapel Hill, NC as opposed to last campaign, "estimating" 9,000 at a stadium that holds 22,000. Funny thing though-no big crowd shots as in 2008. Indeed, don't see any big crowd shots as before. Hmmmmm.

Posted by: eureka! at April 24, 2012 05:20 PM (81yf8)

108
Please share. Does it involve moving to another country? Because I may
have to club D'oh over the head if we lose and drag him with me.Where's
alexthechick? I'm down with Alextopia.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM


*waves*

Posted by: Honduras at April 24, 2012 05:20 PM (QKKT0)

109 World B. Free never threw an elbow.

Just sayin'.

Posted by: Killjoy at April 24, 2012 05:21 PM (hvibU)

110 right now, things are kind of scary-hot in local startup funding (my perspective). It's really reminiscent of 1998ish, and I don't like it too much. The money is just too easy to get if that makes sense

it's just like before with a zillion ridick startups everywhere

I think this ends badly

Posted by: BlackOrchid at April 24, 2012 05:21 PM (SB0V2)

111 Perception is reality. The optics and the narrative are what matters.

You can talk a good economy down but you can't talk a bad one up. Prosperity montages don't pay for gasoline, put food on the table, or pay the mortgage.

Posted by: toby928© at April 24, 2012 05:22 PM (NG097)

112 AND let's not forget the hot, hot summer of racial unrest we have ahead of us, that he keeps fueling. I think by end of summer, most people are going to want this guy gone. And the ones who still love him may not be able to muster up the energy to go and vote for him.

Posted by: Auntie Doodles at April 24, 2012 05:22 PM (6uXZa)

113 Internals?

Posted by: Dagny at April 24, 2012 05:22 PM (4yXmp)

114 da Zero back down to -18 on the Rasmussen. The trend is our friend.

Posted by: maddogg at April 24, 2012 05:23 PM (OlN4e)

115 My friends all say that when the pope retires he'll agree to be Romney's running mate and that's how Romney will get around the hating on the mormons.

Posted by: dally today, cassie yesterday but maybe tinsley again tomorrow unless someone emails and asks her no at April 24, 2012 05:23 PM (QKKT0)

116 82.....Most Europeans are clinically depressed.

This is the 'European model' that the leftists here are trying to force on us. ....They want us to be depressed, working harder and getting less for it....and dysfunctional.

Posted by: wheatie at April 24, 2012 05:23 PM (O4AQQ)

117 67 The best thing we can do till the election is point out how the lib-media and the Barky administration are Lying to us.
----------------

You know what would cinch it?

Show what obamacare is going to do to us the day after election day.

And, every other law and policy we are finally unearthing, that takes affect, the day after election day.

This, we need to make into national ads.

Posted by: polls are irrelly right now at April 24, 2012 05:24 PM (HOOye)

118 If Obama wins, I'll be rich. All that gold in vaults in London.

If he loses, gold will probably go down. Oh well. The Republic survives. Bonus!


Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:24 PM (O3R/2)

119 Does that fact that Obama sucks cock penetrate the mouths, I mean minds, of the dumbasses that voted for him?

Posted by: Mr. Pink at April 24, 2012 05:24 PM (lj8le)

120 I regularly see a guy in my neighborhood driving a BMW with a "Veterans For Obama" sticker.

I want to run him off the road and slap the stupid out of him. Really, idiot? You think Barky gives a flying f*ck about veterans? Jeebus.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:25 PM (UOM48)

121 Immediately following the Democrat nominating convention Gallup in 1984 had Mondale ahead of Reagan. In the leadup to the 1988 election cycle Gallup had Dukakis 17 points ahead of Bush 41. Literally the day prior to the 2004 general election CNN/Gallup/USAT had Kerry winning Ohio and Florida and thereby taking the election. That's from memory. If I actually spent some time digging I probably could come up, oh, say, with 10 other major examples of polling dissonance on the part of Gallup and affiliates. Moral of the story: The election is in November. Vote for the guy with the "R" next to his name. Then let the chips fall where they may.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at April 24, 2012 05:25 PM (f8XyF)

122 Invest in brass and lead futures.

Posted by: maddogg at April 24, 2012 05:26 PM (OlN4e)

123 Weekend poll----not likely voters----mystery internals-----Gallup's recent history of wild mood swings---need more??


Only sissies and Allahpuke eeyores squeal over this Crap--and they've revealed themselves on this thread

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at April 24, 2012 05:26 PM (Dll6b)

124 Eyeore Pundit strikes again.

Posted by: mpfs at April 24, 2012 05:27 PM (iYbLN)

125 Yeah, up and down 7 every hour. Sure I believe that shit.

Posted by: Jimmah at April 24, 2012 05:27 PM (UpwlP)

126 Posted by: eureka! at April 24, 2012 05:20 PM (81yf

-----------------------------------

I've been noticing that since the beginning of 2011. Also, if you've noticed, that even the audio of his speeches sounds like he's doing a bad stand-up comedy act in some cheesy nightclub dive.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:28 PM (Nnlm1)

127 Allah never posts here anymore. Is it because we weren't nice enough to him?

Posted by: maddogg at April 24, 2012 05:28 PM (OlN4e)

128 I did do some research to see who the most accurate pollster was in the 2008 Presidential election and Rasmussen was #1 followed by Pew. They showed 23 pollsters and Gallop was #18 for what it's worth...

Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at April 24, 2012 05:28 PM (ZHge+)

129 If Obama wins I am going to beat Skyrim again on insane difficulty, complete every side mission, expansion pack, and kill everyone in every town when I am done with that. I will do this while drinking. By the time I am finished it will be 2016, I will be unemployed, my wife will have left, and my liver will be a second or two away from failing so I won't give a shit.

Posted by: Mr. Pink at April 24, 2012 05:29 PM (lj8le)

130 I was reading a poll this morning about single women. They hated...hated McCain, and don't seem to have much more then a few basis points more affection for Romney.

I can't wrap my primitive, knuckle-dragging, neanderthal mind around the concept that this group is so thoroughly in the tank for Obama.

But the Dems seem to have a full court press strategery to exploit them at the polls. And exploited they will become, as they work two or three jobs in the future to pay for all the 'free' shit he's going to reward them with.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at April 24, 2012 05:29 PM (phlKA)

131 Yeah, I remember that 1984 poll showing Mondale up over Reagan by 2 points after their convention. ---Many laughs, it was good for


Start paying attention to polls after Labor Day. Most of them will be Crap even then, but worth watching. For now, it's ratings and entertainment

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at April 24, 2012 05:29 PM (Dll6b)

132 Mitt Romney 2012: No Guns for Mexican Cartels
Mitt Romney 2012: He doesn't want to raise gas prices

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:29 PM (8y9MW)

133 So to the folks who say they'd leave the USA if Barry wins again, where will you go?
Certainly not Europe, they are historically WAY more socialist than we are. Mexico is becoming a Narco state and South America is full of Chavez wannabes. Asia is generally pretty authoritarian and the gubmint will get all up in yourshit for any reason they can concoct.
Maybe I',m naive, but where are you gonna run to? The USAwas that place people aspire to go to. So where you gonna go where your existence and welfare isn't at the mercy of the local strongman or some intrusive central government?
Not being a smart ass, I'm serious, where are you going to go where you willl have itbetter?

Posted by: Anabolic State at April 24, 2012 05:30 PM (FP495)

134 I regularly see a guy in my neighborhood driving a BMW with a "Veterans For Obama" sticker.

Well, maybe he's just dumb and thought it said "Veterinarians for Obama." Considering the average intelligence of those who support the SCOAMT, that would be a reasonable assumption.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:31 PM (8y9MW)

135

Victoria’s Secret Spring Shoot: Behind the Scenes

http://tinyurl.com/8x3lgzo

relax about the polls

Posted by: poll this! at April 24, 2012 05:32 PM (HOOye)

136 Seems to me there is nowhere to run. I can't speak for you but I'm gonna stand and fight. Barry may be President but this is my country too.

Posted by: Anabolic State at April 24, 2012 05:32 PM (FP495)

137 Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at April 24, 2012 05:29 PM (phlKA)


---affirmative action; welfare maximus; section 8 vouchers ( not the military Section 8 ); govt goodies as a replacement for Unobtainable Husbands


I can see Women's Liberation from my house !!!!!!!

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at April 24, 2012 05:33 PM (Dll6b)

138 My husband is going to ATL tomorrow for the next few days for a board mtg. and to see family (I'm not going because the surgery on my nose from the cancer isn't very cute, but especially because I'm not supposed to wear makeup for the next couple of weeks. No makeup to me = nekkid in public).

Anyhow, D'oh is going to take my out-of-work libtard sister to the restaurant of her choice Thursday night, and I'm sure he'll give her some more money to live on.

I've strongly suggested to him that he tell her, "Look, I love you and am always here to help you. But so help me God, if I find out you've voted again for the man who is an enemy to my country, I'll never help you again."

Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:33 PM (UOM48)

139 It's only April. The GOP is only just now coalescing behind Romney. Romney is only just starting attacking and pushing back against O (War on Women, dog-eating story). There's plenty of time for voters to start paying attention.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at April 24, 2012 05:33 PM (KL49F)

140 108 Please share. Does it involve moving to another country? Because I may have to club D'oh over the head if we lose and drag him with me.Where's alexthechick? I'm down with Alextopia. Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:11 PM*waves*
Posted by: Honduras at April 24, 2012 05:20 PM (QKKT0)

Noooo!!! Pick me!

Posted by: Ecuador at April 24, 2012 05:34 PM (WUWb9)

141 133....Not being a smart ass, I'm serious, where are you going to go where you willl have itbetter?

Western Canada. ....Especially Alberta. It has always been more conservative than the rest of Canada....but in recent years, has become even more so.

So if I were willing to 'jump ship' and leave the US....that is where I would go.

Posted by: wheatie at April 24, 2012 05:34 PM (O4AQQ)

142 141
133....Not being a smart ass, I'm serious, where are you going to go where you willl have itbetter?

Texas. That's another Country isn't it?

Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at April 24, 2012 05:36 PM (ZHge+)

143 Way way WAY too early, guys.

Remember last time around when McCain led until the economy started doing a toilet dive?

Just imagine the effect of defaults in Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal this summer, plus $4.50 gas just in time for the Griswold family vacation.

This race is going to be lime running a marathon through Bosnia.

Posted by: Wodeshed at April 24, 2012 05:36 PM (5FSU6)

144 oh no, it's our war on women, coming back to roost!

Posted by: joeindc44 says hide your dogs, SCOMDEF's in town at April 24, 2012 05:36 PM (QxSug)

145 The USAwas that place people aspire to go to. So where you gonna go where your existence and welfare isn't at the mercy of the local strongman or some intrusive central government? Not being a smart ass, I'm serious, where are you going to go where you willl have itbetter?
Posted by: Anabolic State at April 24, 2012 05:30 PM (FP495)

------------------------------------------

No place is going to be even close to the freedom this nation enjoyed just 15-20 years ago, I'll grant you that. But in my travels, I've found a couple of places that affords relative freedom along with a capitalistic mindset. Places that haven't succumbed to the political correctness that is destroying us here.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:36 PM (Nnlm1)

146
Posted by: wheatie at April 24, 2012 05:34 PM (O4AQQ)

If it bugged me enought to leave I'd probably just retreat further into the rural parts of flyover country. I'd have to abandon my job anyway, so the increased taxes won't bother me. (And if you get far enough out, neither will any of the new rules and regs.)

Posted by: tsrblke at April 24, 2012 05:36 PM (22rSN)

147 Immediately following the Democrat nominating convention Gallup in 1984 had Mondale ahead of Reagan.

In the leadup to the 1988 election cycle Gallup had Dukakis 17 points ahead of Bush 41.

Literally the day prior to the 2004 general election CNN/Gallup/USAT had Kerry winning Ohio and Florida and thereby taking the election.

That's from memory. If I actually spent some time digging I probably could come up, oh, say, with 10 other major examples of polling dissonance on the part of Gallup and affiliates.

*********************


But that's why they keep doing their polling. It has it's desired effect--to suppress Republican turn out and to keep those voters with such low self esteem that they need to pick the winner--off the Republican Bandwagon.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:36 PM (r2PLg)

148 Victoria’s Secret Spring Shoot: Behind the Scenes http://tinyurl.com/8x3lgzo relax about the polls

No way my pole will be relaxin' now.

Posted by: Rachel Maddow at April 24, 2012 05:37 PM (6pIqp)

149 Sadly, I do believe there will be race wars in large urban areas this summer. Chinless Holder struck the match and Barky is providing the fuel.


Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:38 PM (UOM48)

150 145... Where? If it is true I'll go.

Posted by: Anabolic State at April 24, 2012 05:38 PM (FP495)

151 Texas. That's another Country isn't it?

If the SCOAMT gets a second term, it might end up one.

I still want to start my Houston-Riding-Cockroach-Cavalry regiment.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:38 PM (8y9MW)

152 brb, I am reading about intrade.com


Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:38 PM (O3R/2)

153 Texas. That's another Country isn't it?

Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at April 24, 2012 05:36 PM (ZHge+)

May just be... after the election if O wins...

Posted by: Romeo13 at April 24, 2012 05:38 PM (lZBBB)

154 $3.50/gal. gasoline. That's where this so-called pole would fall on it's ass.

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:00 PM (Nnlm1)



Where the hell can I get gas at $3.50 a gallon? It's $4.10 here.

Posted by: NIPPP at April 24, 2012 05:38 PM (0oYHO)

155 Western Canada. ....Especially Alberta. It has always been more conservative than the rest of Canada....but in recent years, has become even more so.

So if I were willing to 'jump ship' and leave the US....that is where I would go.

Posted by: wheatie at April 24, 2012 05:34 PM (O4AQQ)


****************

I never thought I would seriously consider going after my "right" to Canadian citizenship.


But--it keeps getting more and more tempting.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:38 PM (r2PLg)

156 I thought Independent Business Daily had the most accurate polls for 2008.


Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:39 PM (O3R/2)

157 just as long as we keep voter fraud down this time around, we'll win in a walk.

Posted by: joeindc44 says hide your dogs, SCOMDEF's in town at April 24, 2012 05:39 PM (QxSug)

158 Texas is a possibility...

Posted by: Anabolic State at April 24, 2012 05:39 PM (FP495)

159 Where the hell can I get gas at $3.50 a gallon? It's $4.10 here.

Welcome to Texas and Oklahoma. We're even over that $3.50 mark, here in DFW, though.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:40 PM (8y9MW)

160 In the leadup to the 1988 election cycle Gallup had Dukakis 17 points ahead of Bush 41.


*******

Jeebus. I'm going to go try to find a reference for that.


Ha! Gawd those clowns.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:40 PM (r2PLg)

161 For Real, Serious Fun, try some state polls


When Jeb Bush won his first race for gov of FLA, the Tampa Kotex ( Tribune ) had him down by FIFTEEN POINTS the day before the election--on a crap weekend 'adults' poll


nevertheless...

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at April 24, 2012 05:40 PM (Dll6b)

162 Statistics and ratings may be so manipulated they're useless

The SEC is suing not MF Global. Not even looking at them

They're suing and investigating the ratings firm that had the nerve to downgrade the US and JP Morgan

Posted by: kbdabear at April 24, 2012 05:40 PM (Y+DPZ)

163 I remember when I was a kid, my parents saying that if Ted Kennedy became President we were going to move to New Zealand and raise sheep.

Posted by: Wodeshed at April 24, 2012 05:41 PM (5FSU6)

164 I still want to start my Houston-Riding-Cockroach-Cavalry regiment.

Only if they let me mount a 105mm gun and armor on spiders.

Oh, and put Hellfire missiles on the mosquitoes.

Posted by: Brother Cavil, in Cylon hell at April 24, 2012 05:41 PM (GBXon)

165

2012 Romney v. Obama theme song: "Secret Agent Man" (Johnny Rivers)

2002 Deja vu: The Republicans promised a return of high moral character and respect for and from the White House. George W. Bush campaign v. Al Gore post Clinton's corruption "Because I could" commit perjury, ignore the Constitution, make the impeachment process meaningless to Congress and wimpy rinos.


Posted by: panzernashorn at April 24, 2012 05:41 PM (lpWVn)

166 I've been noticing that since the beginning of 2011. Also, if you've
noticed, that even the audio of his speeches sounds like he's doing a
bad stand-up comedy act in some cheesy nightclub dive. Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:28 PM (Nnlm1)


Yup. Shuck and jive, pity me stories, and begging for laugh and applause lines. More and more Americans see he's a loser and a turd, and try as they might, the MFM can't polish him or tout his record. Hence, they will try to destroy Mittens and the VP pick. We are in for a ride.

Posted by: eureka! at April 24, 2012 05:41 PM (81yf8)

167 146....If it bugged me enought to leave I'd probably just retreat further into the rural parts of flyover country.

No. ...Even rural America will be impacted if Barky gets another term. He has already put things in place to take over rural lands, if they are not being used for the "proper use".

The only thing that has kept him from proceeding with it, is worrying about getting reelected.

Posted by: wheatie at April 24, 2012 05:42 PM (O4AQQ)

168 When Jeb Bush won his first race for gov of FLA, the
Tampa Kotex ( Tribune ) had him down by FIFTEEN POINTS the day before
the election--on a crap weekend 'adults' poll



Posted by: SantaRosaStan at April 24, 2012 05:40 PM

I remember the CA recall poll back in 2003

Had Gray Davis slightly ahead

On the day of the recall, Davis looked resigned. Kind of like his internal polls told him the LA Times polls were fiction

Posted by: kbdabear at April 24, 2012 05:42 PM (Y+DPZ)

169 Oh, and put Hellfire missiles on the mosquitoes.

In deference to some of our 'ettes, I won't remark on the arachnids, but I really don't think it's wise to arm the mosquitoes. They're bad enough on their own.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:42 PM (8y9MW)

170 FWIW, it's not that I don't care, I'll do everything in my power to stop the SCOAMF from being reelected, however if he is, I'm not sure I'm going to start uprooting my life and moving to a foreign country. That'd be bad, reelection is bad, I'll have to see which is worse first.

Posted by: tsrblke at April 24, 2012 05:43 PM (22rSN)

171 (And if you get far enough out, neither will any of the new rules and regs.)
Posted by: tsrblke at April 24, 2012 05:36 PM (22rSN)

--------------------------------------

Well, not until we find you.

Posted by: Baraka's drone air force at April 24, 2012 05:43 PM (Nnlm1)

172 157 Speaking of voter fraud -- I just read a styry about massive voter fraud in Philadelphia (the city I live near) and how the McCain campaign chose not to pursue it forfear of racial issues. If the election is close they will stuff the boxes in Philadelphiaandwill betoo much for the rest of the state to overcome.

Posted by: Anabolic State at April 24, 2012 05:43 PM (FP495)

173 This "recovery" is also being artificially inflated by funny money via the Fed. All that inflow as "stimulus" and pain reduction? Yeah, interest out the wazoo is the long-term reward.

Let the boning continue unabated. Obama will get his in November.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at April 24, 2012 05:43 PM (eHIJJ)

174 I really don't think it's wise to arm the mosquitoes. They're bad enough on their own.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:42 PM (8y9MW



Pikers.

Posted by: Gnats at April 24, 2012 05:43 PM (UOM48)

175
PA will most likely go blue in November but a lot of other tossup states are likely to go red.

I have a sense that a lot of Obama voters are having buyers remorse. I told the story a couple of days ago about the guy who was monitoring my dad. He brought up the subject, said he was all in for the hope and change bullshit at first but now he's paying more than ever for healthcare. Not a happy camper.

He (and probably millions of others) will either sit home in November or vote for Romney.

Posted by: Ed Anger - Certified Kos Kid at April 24, 2012 05:44 PM (7+pP9)

176 Heh--found a 14% advantage for Dukakis.


New Polls Show Bush Shaves Dukakis Lead
Published: June 30, 1988
SIGN IN TO E-MAIL
PRINT

Two new national polls released yesterday showed Michael S. Dukakis's lead over Vice President Bush narrowing to only a few percentage points.

A Gallup Poll of 1,210 registered voters, conducted June 24-26, have Mr. Dukakis leading, 46 percent to 41 percent. That was closer than the results of a Gallup Poll two weeks earlier, in which the Massachusetts Democrat enjoyed a lead of 52 percent to 38 percent.

An ABC News/Money Magazine Poll, conducted by telephone from June 22 through 26, found that among all adults, registered or not, Mr. Dukakis leads, 45 percent to 42 percent. In late May, Mr. Dukakis led by 52 percent to 41 percent among all adults in an ABC News/Washington Post Poll using the same methodology.

Both polls had margins of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.


*********

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/30/us/new-

polls-show-bush-shaves-dukakis-lead.html

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:45 PM (r2PLg)

177

Semi-OT/

Hs anybody else read Sinclair Lewis' "It Can't Happen Here"?

'Cause it looks like it can.

Posted by: Wodeshed at April 24, 2012 05:45 PM (5FSU6)

178 On the day of the recall, Davis looked resigned. Kind of like his internal polls told him the LA Times polls were fiction

We can dream, can't we?

Posted by: The MSM at April 24, 2012 05:45 PM (QKKT0)

179 Anyone have a good website to get archived polling data?

Posted by: laceyunderalls at April 24, 2012 05:45 PM (pLTLS)

180 Mitt Romney still sucks (Obama sucks more).

Perry/West 2012

Posted by: Pragmatic at April 24, 2012 05:46 PM (lTnzg)

181
Did someone say "V"?

The boys on the set of Firefly used to call my little V-shaped delight "Baklava, after the tasty Turkish filo pastry . . .

Posted by: Monica Baccarin at April 24, 2012 05:46 PM (RtpCp)

182 Nupost.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:46 PM (8y9MW)

183 Trevon is being played up by the regime to make poll watching a very hazardous occupation.

Posted by: joeindc44 says hide your dogs, SCOMDEF's in town at April 24, 2012 05:47 PM (QxSug)

184 Our plans for world domination are proceeding as planned.

Posted by: No See-Ums at April 24, 2012 05:47 PM (O4AQQ)

185 polls-show-bush-shaves-dukakis-Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:45 PM (r2PLg)

In Russia, dukakis shaves bush.

Posted by: Ammo Dump at April 24, 2012 05:47 PM (WUWb9)

186 @180


Oh for crying out loud. Either stay home in November or STFU.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at April 24, 2012 05:47 PM (UOM48)

187 Welcome to Texas and Oklahoma. We're even over that $3.50 mark, here in DFW, though.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at April 24, 2012 05:40 PM (8y9MW)

---------------------------------------

Actually, I fibbed a little on the $3.50 gas. I filled up last night on $3.35 gas.

Posted by: Baraka's drone air force at April 24, 2012 05:47 PM (Nnlm1)

188 imp: "All polls are going to be 'weighted' into oblivion between now and then, even teh republicans' polls."

You got that right. I'm guessing conventional wisdom from the MFM will have it pegged at 70%D/1%R/29%I the week before the election. It'll be "unprecedented"!

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at April 24, 2012 05:48 PM (eHIJJ)

189 The only strategery I see to knock out the Obama 'swoon factor' among single women is to approach them on a grass roots level, and either:

1. deflate their tires on election day
2. convince them that there is not, and never has been, such a thing as ' a free lunch' and that they and their non-aborted children will be paying for the free lunch for the next couple decades, plus interest and penalties. 'For the children' also includes accepting some level of non-immediate gratification. Tough concept to sell. Much easier for the Dems to wave the magic wand of 'free shit'.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at April 24, 2012 05:48 PM (phlKA)

190 Heh-

Here is a link that takes you to google news and shows an old photocopy of The News Journal in 1995.

Title:

Gallup Poll : Dukakis leads Bush by 17 points

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:49 PM (r2PLg)

191 Persistant socks suck

Posted by: Soona at April 24, 2012 05:50 PM (Nnlm1)

192 edit:

1998

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:50 PM (r2PLg)

193 185 polls-show-bush-shaves-dukakis-Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:45 PM (r2PLg)

In Russia, dukakis shaves bush.
Posted by: Ammo Dump at April 24, 2012 05:47 PM (WUWb9)

**********


LOL--jeez.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:51 PM (r2PLg)

194 172...

A) Romney is not McCain. I'm not sure yet yet but I think he would contest any blatant box stuffing. The state government is also currently controlled by the GOP.

B) PA will have the voter ID law in effect (if the courts uphold it). The reason the Dems scream so loudly about these laws is that they work.

C) The "red" rural counties learned something in 2010. They waited for most of the Philly precincts to report before reporting their own (kind of like Wisconsin in the last set of recalls). That makes it hard for the Dems to know exactly how many votes to gin up. The state is also currently controlled by the GOP.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at April 24, 2012 05:51 PM (YmPwQ)

195
172 157 Speaking of voter fraud -- I just read a styry about massive voter fraud in Philadelphia...

New PA voter law requiring photo ID might cut into that by about 10% in the major urban areas. Better than nothing. but nothing can cure the black Democrat stranglehold of voting corruption in Philly, Harrisburg and Pittsburgh.

Posted by: Ed Anger - Certified Kos Kid at April 24, 2012 05:53 PM (7+pP9)

196 On last night's ONT, we had a few die hards who are still convinced that we can toss over Romney for the True Conservative Savior who will actually for real cut the budget deeply.

Never named the Savior

Posted by: kbdabear at April 24, 2012 05:53 PM (Y+DPZ)

197 For Real, Serious Fun, try some state polls


When Jeb Bush won his first race for gov of FLA, the Tampa Kotex ( Tribune ) had him down by FIFTEEN POINTS the day before the election--on a crap weekend 'adults' poll


nevertheless...
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at April 24, 2012 05:40 PM (Dll6b)

**************


Gawd.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 05:53 PM (r2PLg)

198
This is MY country. I fought and bled for it.


You will have to kill me before I quit on it.

Posted by: irongrampa at April 24, 2012 05:54 PM (SAMxH)

199 Bummer. Can't send money to Ireland to gamble on U.S. election. Such a pity.


Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:55 PM (O3R/2)

200 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at April 24, 2012 05:55 PM (7W3wI)

201 Soothsayer is right in his eeyoreness to point out polls do matter and Obama us strangely popular for a guy with his record but id point out this is a RV poll were up 4 in the LV poll

Posted by: AuthorLMendez at April 24, 2012 05:56 PM (3XDPM)

202 Mid October 1980 polls had Jimmy Carter in the lead

Posted by: kbdabear at April 24, 2012 05:57 PM (Y+DPZ)

203 The Media just want Obama to be reelected. They'll lie whatever way they have to.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at April 24, 2012 05:59 PM (i0App)

204 I will declare here and now the presidential race will be a Romney LAND SLIDE. And I'll bookmark this to refer back to for proof of my genius at the appropriate time.
And if not. Nevermind.

Posted by: Jimmah at April 24, 2012 05:59 PM (UpwlP)

205
The combination of willfully blind Marxist MFM disconnect and the endleess punitive style of race baiting popular enforcement has made these polls into evil witch mirrors.

Poll poll upon the wall, who's the fairest dear leader of all....


Total distortions

Posted by: ontherocks at April 24, 2012 05:59 PM (aZ6ew)

206 Posted by: In before the troll at April 24, 2012 05:09 PM (tQoT4)


Nah, I think the troll (ozfic) beat ya.

Posted by: NIPPP at April 24, 2012 06:01 PM (0oYHO)

207 202 Mid October 1980 polls had Jimmy Carter in the lead

Posted by: kbdabear at April 24, 2012 05:57 PM (Y+DPZ)


*******************

Somebody should go soft serve all these old crap polls to Allahpundit.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 06:04 PM (r2PLg)

208 Update: I can send a check to Ireland to bet for Romney.

C'mon morons. If you really think OShithead is going to lose, you can double your money right now.



Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 06:05 PM (O3R/2)

209 90
Where can I get a bumper sticker that says:

Romney 2012: He didn't eat dog.

?



Posted by: Jimbo at April 24, 2012 05:14 PM (O3R/2)

makestickers.com
I used them for creating my "Yellowstone Caldera 2012: Just Get It Over With" campaign sticker (which was prior to SMoD getting into the ring). They're $5 shipped each--less in quantities.

Posted by: Sandra Fluke's solid gold diaphragm at April 24, 2012 06:14 PM (0d0K7)

210 Sorry can we take into consideration the following:

1. To call Gallup "erratic" would be the understatement of the century. Gallup's Presidential Approval Poll (which is supposed to be a 3 day moving average) regularly swings up and down 6-8 points weekly and sometimes as much as 4 points in a day. In a moving average poll, these kinds of swings should be close to impossible - and yet with gallup, it is the norm.

2. Gallup never tells us the party affiliation of their sample. Knowing the games the left plays with that we can pretty much toss Gallup on that alone. If you look at the crosstabs in their most recent polling, it is pretty clear they are oversampling Democrats.

3. Gallup has been EXTREMELY inaccurate in the past, especially this far out.

As always, look to Rasmussen. He polls Likely Voters and his party affiliation weighting is based upon thousands and thousands of respondents.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at April 24, 2012 06:15 PM (hlUJY)

211 Wishcasting. That's what dems do best. Besides if lazy dem voters think it's in the bag they won't show up.

Posted by: Boots at April 24, 2012 06:16 PM (neKzn)

212 Bush Sr. was up over Clinton by a mile in the polls. Reagan was 25 points down against Carter. Barring an economic miracle Obama is gone.

Posted by: Ken Royall at April 24, 2012 06:19 PM (9zzk+)

213 Baraka is toast.

Posted by: Jumbo Jogging Shrimp at April 24, 2012 06:20 PM (DGIjM)

214 Another interesting thing about all those past crap polls-


Is it always the republican who ends up coming from behind?


That would show bias to most fair minded people.

Posted by: tasker at April 24, 2012 06:21 PM (r2PLg)

215 I'm actually VERY optimistic about Romney's chances, and I'm not one these delusional conservatives that thinks good always triumphs over evil.

If the US was experiencing 3%+ growth (an anemic recovery) Obama would hands down win easily despite the shit he's pulled.

The economy will very likely either be exactly like it is now, or a bit worse as a result of what's happening in Europe.

I'll be the first to admit Romney is a tepid conservative, but he's actually a VERY strong general election candidate despite the harping on our side. I would honestly rate him the best we've had since Reagan. And Romney's campaign is also not afraid to play (like Lee Atwater)

Posted by: Asus at April 24, 2012 06:28 PM (0kf1G)

216 ANYONE crying over the UNH poll showing O+9
They used a D44% sample to do it.
They oversampled democrats by an astounding number and fail to reflect either Gallup's R+4 rating for the state's ID or the massive # of independents.

The Dartmouth U poll got NO attention last week and had Obama down 2, 44-42.

Allah needs to get a damn grip.

Posted by: CAC at April 24, 2012 06:48 PM (ivJTD)

217 ______________________________

Ace,

I agree with your assessment regarding how our obviously feeble economy will almost certainly effect voter sentiment in the fall: Bad for Obama. Period.

Now, regarding the reading of the head-to-head polling match up between Romney versus Obama: I hold a double standard.

Until the General Election buzz really gets cranked up and rocking such that normally oblivious American voters are getting caught up in the excitement and starting to pay real attention: any polling data showing Obama winning doesn't mean much. About all it does mean is that the average oblivious voter hasn't given up on Obama... just yet. - Because they're not really paying attention just yet.

Their minds haven't been sharply focused by multiple and compelling arguments that America can do a hell of a lot better than Barrack Obama - and what form that betterness would come in. Average voters are simply not the political junkies that we are. True, most of them are well aware that the economy more or less sucks and that Republicans (plus their brand new candidate Romney) are blaming Obama and the Democrats. But it is still all way too vague for the average voter. It's just sort of generalized background noise for now.

Now, any time the polls form a consensus that Romney is ahead of Obama, that doesn't mean that the country is all "Rah-rah-shish-boom-bah let's have Romney as our next president!" - as they hardly know much of the man. Rather those polls simply mean, "Damn, we really don't think we want another term of Obama."

- And that's my double standard.

Bad polls for Obama this early in the process, really are bad for him.
Good polls for Obama this early in the process merely means all hope is not lost for his reelection bid.




Posted by: _Dave_ at April 24, 2012 06:50 PM (2amQY)

218 ______________________________

Further consider the following hypothetical test. Imagine a huge poster board that showed side by side, slightly larger than life-sized headshot-photographs of these nationally known political personas in no particular order:

Newt Gingrich, John Kerry, Barrack Obama, Tim Pawlenty, John Kasich, Mitt Romney, Mark Rubio, Rick Santorum, Howard Dean, John Edwards, Allan West, Chris Christie, Jon Huntsman, Allan Keys, and George W. Bush.

Now if you were to take this big poster board showing that lineup of prominent male politicians and set it up as a booth in any typical, middle-American shopping mall and then asked random adults to identify the current president and the last president and to say their names upon identification: you would get results approaching 100% accuracy.
If, however, you asked that same pool of adults to also identify the current Republican nominee running for president and to say his name upon identification, you probably would not break 60%.

By the time we are a month out from election day, Mitt Romney's face/name identification in that same kind of mugshot-lineup might not quite be on the cusp of 100% the way that Barrack Obama and George W. Bush are. But Mitt Romney will be well upwards of 90%.

This illustrates a point beyond the simple (but crucial) face/name identification gap for Mitt Romney that will inevitably close.

More importantly, it brings to mind that the country does not really know much about Mitt Romney yet.

The average oblivious voter knows less about Romney now than I did about Rick Perry when he first formed his exploratory commission to run for president.

That's why for the next several months (at least until the GOP convention) any consensus of polls that shows Obama beating Romney is meaningless in terms of handicapping Romney's chances of winning/losing. (- The country really doesn't know him yet. So they can't really reject or embrace him.)

But any consensus of polls that shows Romney beating Obama is a sign that the president's bid for reelection is in trouble.

It is necessary to adopt an asymmetrical analysis of the political situation. These are two utterly different kinds of candidate running for the exact same office of POTUS.
By different kinds of candidate, I am not referring to their opposing ideologies or political parties. I am referring to the kind of paradigm by which the voting public knows or relates to them. And until election day is fairly to very near at hand, these paradigms won't fold into each other so that the candidates are approaching near-parity in terms of how the public knows them.



Posted by: _Dave_ at April 24, 2012 06:50 PM (2amQY)

219 HA ad for Fred Karger?

Who knew the GOP had a ghey presidential candidate?

Take that you kos kids.

Posted by: Billy Bob, the 1% at April 24, 2012 07:06 PM (hXJOG)

220 My dick is polling 'miniscule'.

Posted by: gerg at April 24, 2012 07:10 PM (nU/dt)

221 216
ANYONE crying over the UNH poll showing O+9

They used a D44% sample to do it.

They oversampled democrats by an astounding number and fail to
reflect either Gallup's R+4 rating for the state's ID or the massive #
of independents.



The Dartmouth U poll got NO attention last week and had Obama down 2, 44-42.



Allah needs to get a damn grip.

Posted by: CAC at April 24, 2012 06:48 PM (ivJTD)

You know what we need? An instant poll debunker. Something akin to politifact (except honest).And totally honest, too. One that normalizes polls with respect to turnout and lays all their methodological flaws bare.

Posted by: AmishDude at April 24, 2012 07:20 PM (T0NGe)

222 219
HA ad for Fred Karger?

Who knew the GOP had a ghey presidential candidate?


I didn't know he was ghey but I met him at the Ames straw poll. The freaky fringe candidates stand near the entrances and try to shake everybody's hand. He was...clingy.

Posted by: AmishDude at April 24, 2012 07:22 PM (T0NGe)

223 when he forgives all the student loan debt, they will go out and vote for him in droves.....

Posted by: / at April 24, 2012 07:27 PM (oZfic)

224 told ya so

Posted by: Greg at April 24, 2012 07:36 PM (sXjAm)

225 There is only one poll that means anything to me... the one that we the people will fill out in early November...

Posted by: Barry O da Media Ho at April 24, 2012 07:48 PM (Jls4P)

226 "There is only one poll that means anything to me... the one that we the people will fill out in early November..."

THERE IT IS!!!

The losers lament that is always parroted by the losing campaign. "The only poll that counts is in November." This is going to be a hilarious year telling you fools that I told you so over and over and over again.

Posted by: Greg at April 24, 2012 07:51 PM (sXjAm)

227 ______________________________

Hey Greg,

Right around late September to mid-October, make sure you've got your bib, highchair, and silverware setup at the ready. Because crow is what you'll be eating morning, noon, and night.

Bon appetit, you halfwit.





Posted by: _Dave_ at April 24, 2012 08:01 PM (2amQY)

228 Given that the White House has had to lower the official growth numbers down EVERY SINGLE QUARTER of Obama's presidency, its going to be tough to trust their numbers in the coming months. Every time, within a few weeks, they announce "oh, we were off by a little, its half that. Geithner forgot to carry the 7."

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at April 24, 2012 08:07 PM (r4wIV)

229 "Hey Greg,

Right around late September to mid-October, make sure you've got your bib, highchair, and silverware setup at the ready. Because crow is what you'll be eating morning, noon, and night."

Oh, I'll be here and happily eat a ton of crow if I'm wrong. But I won't be wrong. When Obama only dropped to around 43-44 percent approval last year when the economy was at it's weakest, that showed that he has just an incredible amount of goodwill from the public. And that shows up in the likability advantage over Romney. Mitt will be lucky to win NC. Florida, OH and VA will all go to Obama. So will NH, it looks like.

Posted by: Greg at April 24, 2012 08:07 PM (sXjAm)

230 ______________________________

Greg,

I retract my halfwit insult, with apologies. -- Mistook you for a troll.

But yes you're prediction of an Obama victory is wrong. And months from now as the campaign draws in close upon election day (if not before) baring a major economic turn around: Obama's numbers will crater.

And yes, crow will be on the menu for you.



Posted by: _Dave_ at April 24, 2012 08:14 PM (2amQY)

231 zzz

Posted by: Gerry at April 24, 2012 08:38 PM (+D6OT)

232 Don't worry about Greg, he was spectacularly wrong in 2010, and will be in 2012.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at April 24, 2012 08:49 PM (fiXQh)

233 For the economy to bounce quickly back up to where it was, the country must be the same as it was before the recession. It isn't however. Obama's deliberate damaging of the country through energy regulation, massive debts and government takeovers of large sectors will force the country to buildthe economy back up in spite of these hurdles. That will take time.

Posted by: Max Entropy at April 24, 2012 09:17 PM (NwTXA)

234 If John Q. Public gives this SOB another term he deserves every bit of socialist hell that follows....

That said, I'm quietly confident this guy gets tossed decisively.

53-47 popular vote. Close but decisive in electoral college.

The only Republican to ever win landslides in modern time is Reagan. Dreams of a blowout are just that dreams, but I think we win. All Romney has to do is show up, and try not to look like a total dork, which may be his biggest challenge.

People are underwater on their mortgages, they are worried about their jobs, those that still have them. Those that don't have jobs but want to work will vote for change. Gasoline costs will remain high. There is no sense of "new sensation" about Obama this time around like there was in 2008, no matter how hard the media tries to sell it.

God help us if I'm wrong!

Posted by: jimb at April 24, 2012 09:39 PM (Er/xb)

235 Think about all that has happened since he was elected electorally:

2009 Governorships in VA and NJ turn blue
2010 Scott Brown over machine democrat in MA
2010 Historic landslide mid-term election

All of these happened in the first half of BO's first term. He has done nothing to change the fundamentals of this nation for the better.

Posted by: jimb at April 24, 2012 09:41 PM (Er/xb)

236 1 Kings 22:38

They washed the chariot at a pool in Samaria (where the prostitutes
bathed), and the dogs licked up his blood, as the word of the LORD had
declared.

Posted by: Moses at April 24, 2012 10:22 PM (e8kgV)

237 http://www.stpipefitting.com
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http://www.bwfitting.com
http://www.st-pipefittings.com
http://www.topfitting.com
http://www.stfitting.com
http://www.stgjjt.com
http://www.stgjjt.cn

Posted by: pipe fittings at April 25, 2012 08:19 AM (mWkBF)

238 AmishDude - I agree. Every poll should post their results normalized to a common distribution. They can spin tangents wildly after doing that.

Posted by: Jean at April 25, 2012 09:56 AM (WkuV6)

239 The hockey stick climate change guy needs this gig. Haters.

Posted by: MarkD at April 25, 2012 04:40 PM (iYBP2)

240 You made a few good points there. I did a search on the matter and found a good number of people will agree with your blog.

Posted by: The Last Boyfriend iBooks at April 26, 2012 06:16 AM (Z538h)

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Posted by: The Passage of Power ePub at April 26, 2012 06:30 AM (3XtiQ)






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