Hoffman Results Thread: 5/6ths of Vote In, and Hoffman Still Trails by 4000 Votes

Close, but see below: Drew says the upbeat mood from earlier is now replaced by a bad feeling, and Hoffman is merely splitting a county he'd thought he'd be winning 2:1.

Absentees? I don't know when absentees went out. I'm assuming most were mailed in before Hoffman's surge, so I have to think most of those will go to Owens and Scozzer. No help for Hoffman there, I fear. Ten thousand of them.


Update: But exit polls say our man wins. Clarification: Not really exit polls; something a DNC staffer reported. Who knows, perhaps to create a "surprise" end of night win for one of their guys.

Leaked exits (via Ben Smith's twitter account) had Hoffman leading Owens 50-47, with Scozzafava at 2.5%. At this rate, it'll be tomorrow before we know who won.

On the other hand, InTrade is now saying Hoffman. I said "So what?" when AHFF Geoff told me that InTrade had turned heavily for Christie; well, we see that was predictive there, so what do I know.

Drew reports that people are getting nervous at camp Hoffman, and there is a "bad feeling" in the room, but that is, kind of, to be expected: The numbers so far show a 8 point Owens lead.

Update: Allah was right-- Scozzafava was drawing more votes from Owens than from Hoffman, and her exit from the race benefited, as I'm sure she guessed, Owens.

His last update notes that Hoffman is merely splitting a county where a previous poll had shown him with a 2:1 edge. Obviously, he'd be counting on those votes.

Still not sure why those exit polls say 50-47 Hoffman. Plus, exit polls skew liberal, usually.

Perhaps that was a bad tip. Comes from Ben Smith; he could be wrong. Clarification: Smith clarifies it wasn't his tip; he was retweeting a number posted by a DNC staffer. Not media exits.

UPDATE [DrewM. Reporting Live!]

Just talking to a gentlemen who has national and local polling experience.

He says given what he understands of where the votes are left, Hoffman is an a tough but doable spot.

Owens seems to be running better in areas where he was expected to do well but he's out performing that.

His sense of Hoffman's challenge is that this was a national race for many around the country but the locals wanted to talk about local issues, things like the 'roof top highway' and year round navigation of the St. Lawrence Seaway. Hoffman and his surrogates really didn't address that. It may rankle the independent streak in this area.

Please keep in mind the above is based on a conversation with a knowledgeable local who has experience in polling and this district but not based on hard facts. In other words...typical election night stuff. Add salt to taste.

Odd note, there's no organized activities from the podium here. No announcements about NJ, I've been spreading that word.

Also, just hearing from the Syracuse TV station, there are some problems with the new voting machines. There are paper backups but they won't be counted tonight.

Posted by: Ace at 10:40 PM



Comments

1 Getchasome...first!

Posted by: 4ican at November 03, 2009 10:03 PM (dcUad)

2 Why did they leave scuzzynutter on the ballot? wtf...

Posted by: Master Baiter at November 03, 2009 10:03 PM (GfYt/)

3 @2 too late to take her off...

Posted by: Vet Missing Parts at November 03, 2009 10:04 PM (MCHyX)

4 20 people voted?


Posted by: BumperStickerist at November 03, 2009 10:04 PM (ruzrP)

5 I'm calling it for Scozzer.

Posted by: Newt at November 03, 2009 10:04 PM (j+aj1)

6 Probably the key race for many reasons.

Posted by: CPT. Charles at November 03, 2009 10:04 PM (lYKj1)

7 Very nervous about this one.

Posted by: changer1701 at November 03, 2009 10:05 PM (rrLGs)

8 shit
i pray the Oneida region which has yet to report goes 100 percent for hoffman.
He may very well lose
that scuzzball might eat up the votes he needed

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:05 PM (bftbi)

9 Too bad we vote anon. Those dumb enough to vote for scuzzy should be deported.

Posted by: Scott J. at November 03, 2009 10:05 PM (WMXl8)

10 This is a (bad) shocker. I've been glued to the Fox ticker and the percentages never change even though the no. of precincts keeps growing. It's 53-41 Owens. Even the lib outfit of PPP had this as a Hoffman slam dunk!

Posted by: RushBabe at November 03, 2009 10:06 PM (LKkE8)

11 Owens won the fucking thing. Fughk.

Posted by: Master Baiter at November 03, 2009 10:06 PM (GfYt/)

12
Thanks for that $900k you spend on Dede, GOP.

Keep on fucking that chicken while you can. It's over.

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 10:06 PM (Dh+s2)

13 Yep, been worried about this one. People hate voting the Independent option.

Posted by: lorien1973 at November 03, 2009 10:06 PM (ZXnUe)

14 Someone get these people a computer--yeah yeah, I know they didn't close til 9. What kind of state stays open till 9? More time for fraud?

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 10:06 PM (Z/wYm)

15 also if christie isn't up by 2% with all the precients reporting you might as well give the race to corzine. The democrats now how to win close elections like that if you know what I mean.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:07 PM (bftbi)

16 come on Hoffman!

any news from DrewM?

Posted by: Trish at November 03, 2009 10:07 PM (0U5Kd)

17 What kind of state stays open till 9? More time for fraud?

ACORN needs time to exhume the dead and shuffle them into the polls.

Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston at November 03, 2009 10:07 PM (ijjAe)

18
The GOP lost this race, it wasn't ACORN winning it. Remember that.

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 10:08 PM (Dh+s2)

19 Anyone from NY 23. Can you tell me if the districts not reporting are republican districts.
I can't believe Hoffman would lose by 10 points

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:09 PM (bftbi)

20 See! See! It's all about MEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

Posted by: Barry the Nobel Prize Winner at November 03, 2009 10:09 PM (q1zgR)

21 I still don't understand how someone whom has withdrawn can still have their name be on a ballot. It's as if the incumbent wants votes to be split and wasted down a black hole.

Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (ijjAe)

22 looks like politico might have just called it for christie, they just added a victory checkmark.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (HAdov)

23 In NYC race Bloomberg only leads by one pct with 56 pct of precincts reporting. Could he lose?

Posted by: Retread at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (pZ47R)

24 my wife and I tore up and mailed back our GOP cards. Fuckers.

Posted by: eddiebear at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (wX2Mp)

25 Well Hoffman was/is fighting agains the GOP and DEMS, and Dede... Hell hath no fury etc...

Posted by: spypeach at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (T2zrn)

26 Well it's still early. The vote tally could still swing to Hoffman.

Just can believe Scuzzyfucker is getting that many votes...

Posted by: Master Baiter at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (GfYt/)

27 I still don't understand how someone whom has withdrawn can still have their name be on a ballot. It's as if the incumbent wants votes to be split and wasted down a black hole
not enough time to get it off the balot. there is nothing the government can dowith one weeks notice

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:11 PM (bftbi)

28 If Hoffman loses, that will be the only thing the MSM will want to talk about.

NJ? VA? Tiny, meaningless States.

Posted by: Newt at November 03, 2009 10:11 PM (j+aj1)

29 Remind me to never pay attention toa PPP, DailyKos or Club for Growth Poll.
How could they be this off?

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:12 PM (bftbi)

30 AP calls it, 2 for 2!!! We just need NY-23 now.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 10:12 PM (HAdov)

31 Dede didn't "withdraw" officially. She suspended here campaign... a la McLame.

Posted by: Editor at November 03, 2009 10:12 PM (YX6i/)

32 NBC called it for bloomberg, now recalled their guess. great, aren;t they the ones who reported Gore won florida

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:13 PM (bftbi)

33 ouch

Posted by: Max Power at November 03, 2009 10:13 PM (q177U)

34 According to RCP, Clinton and St. Lawrence are the two big Democratic districts (30% of the total between them). The big Republican district is supposed to be Jefferson County (15%).

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at November 03, 2009 10:13 PM (cxGtL)

35 This is a shame. A stupid shame.
And yeah, the GOP lost it, but ACORN helped. They ARE the Working Families Party of NY you know

Posted by: Truman North at November 03, 2009 10:14 PM (XH/G8)

36 28 If Hoffman loses, that will be the only thing the MSM will want to talk about.

NJ? VA? Tiny, meaningless States.
Posted by: Newt at November 03, 2009 10:11 PM (j+aj1)

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Still, it's awful early...

Just how "heavily conservative," exactly, is that district?

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 03, 2009 10:14 PM (QECjC)

37 Getting the Club for Growth endorsement is, apparently, the kiss of death.

Posted by: lorien1973 at November 03, 2009 10:14 PM (ZXnUe)

38 HAhA! You racist teabagging creationists! I told you so!


Posted by: Charles Johnson's Kindle at November 03, 2009 10:14 PM (wX2Mp)

39 Fuhgedduboutit, Barry!

Posted by: New Jersey at November 03, 2009 10:15 PM (I3Udb)

40 The early votes coming in are not Hoffman's strong ones. You can tell by how much vote Dede is getting.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 10:15 PM (MTcoh)

41 Another one - MSNBC calls if for Christie!

Posted by: tom_06060 at November 03, 2009 10:15 PM (t8Np3)

42 Hoffman is only winning two districts.
either there is a massive shift yet to come, or everyone was dead wrong abvout this race.
I can't believe some 2000 people voted for Scozafava. Are those people who did it out of spite? didn't know she dropped out? people who chose the "select all republicans" option not realizing Hoffman wasn't registered as the republican? Any guesses?

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:16 PM (bftbi)

43 HA! Wallow in your victory, Newt, you self righteous piece of S***. Of course, you know this is all OUR fault because we didn't line up behind the Republicrat they force fed us. Dearie me, looks like the revolution fights on.

Posted by: Alex at November 03, 2009 10:16 PM (udP2l)

44 Hoffman may lose -- he never was the most charismatic fellow -- but he won't lose by this margin. His strong districts in the Syracuse suburbs (Oneida, etc.) have yet to report.

Posted by: OH YEAH at November 03, 2009 10:16 PM (GhUHn)

45 NJ.com calls it for Christie! Yeah!

Posted by: 2010orBust at November 03, 2009 10:16 PM (/mbDE)

46 #32

NYT results site called it for Bloomberg, too, with 63 pct of precincts, but only one pct lead for Bloomberg.

Posted by: Retread at November 03, 2009 10:16 PM (pZ47R)

47 Just can believe Scuzzyfucker is getting that many votes...


Posted by: Master Baiter at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (GfYt/)
--Most of those I'm sure were early voters who sent their votes in before last weekend. There may be one or two idiots in there as well. . . .

Posted by: logprof at November 03, 2009 10:17 PM (I3Udb)

48 It's obvious to me, being in that remote part of NY, enables the majority of people to inter-breed.

Fucking idiots.

Posted by: Mr. Pissed at November 03, 2009 10:17 PM (EL+OC)

49 Does anyone know anything about Fulton and Hamilton? They have not reported. I am guessing Hamilton College is in Hamilton, so they are probably all lefties

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:17 PM (bftbi)

50 See? PALIN LOST! This PROVES the Repugs are doomed! New Jersey and Virginia were STOLEN!

Posted by: Your Asshole Liberal Douchebag Friends at November 03, 2009 10:18 PM (6yEzu)

51 2213, 27% in: Owens 51% Hoffman 44%

Posted by: chemjeff at November 03, 2009 10:18 PM (tJ4Ym)

52 Didn't I read somewhere that NY has early voting - maybe that's why Dede has so many votes, they are votes from before she dropped out.

Posted by: michaelt at November 03, 2009 10:19 PM (WuHcc)

53 Hoffman may lose -- he never was the most charismatic fellow -- but he won't lose by this margin. His strong districts in the Syracuse suburbs (Oneida, etc.) have yet to report.

thanks , what about Osqweigo? or however it is spelled?

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:19 PM (bftbi)

54
On the other hand, it's heartening to see that the Good People of AmeriKKKa got a whiff of the marxist stench from The Won, and didn't like it one bit. Hoffman having to run against the democrat, the socialist, AND the national party might just be too much.

Just remember who was telling us how great a candidate Scuzzyfuck was come next 2010.

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 10:19 PM (Dh+s2)

55 164 of 606 boxes in.

Posted by: Scott J. at November 03, 2009 10:19 PM (WMXl8)

56 Harshed my buzz, this news. Holding out for heavier R districts...

Posted by: stitches at November 03, 2009 10:19 PM (KyqYb)

57 Sure are a lot of long faces for less than half of precincts reporting...

Posted by: Fortunate Son at November 03, 2009 10:20 PM (B7kwl)

58 If Hoffman loses it's because of Dede taking up all the media attention in the last few weeks of the campaign with her attention whoring tactics and drama, drowning out any real chance Hoffman had to get enough media exposure focused on HIM which would have helped his campaign a lot. And why was Dede around to make such a mess? Because Newt Gingrich wouldn't get the hell out of the way.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 10:20 PM (mFUln)

59 Hmm.

Posted by: Jeff B. at November 03, 2009 10:20 PM (GhUHn)

60 Sure are a lot of long faces for less than half of precincts reporting...
it's not just that. It is the fact that Scuttlebutt is pulling in so many votes.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:20 PM (bftbi)

61 Rove predicting Hoffman still.... hmmmmmmm

Posted by: Trois Pistoles at November 03, 2009 10:21 PM (lxEx/)

62 If Hoffman loses, it's because the Republican Party dropped a million bucks pumping up Scuzzy, and she repaid us by endorsing Owens. Imagine if that money had been spent building up Hoffman.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at November 03, 2009 10:21 PM (cxGtL)

63 wherestherum's bf doesn't vote in NY-23, does he? I think they're farther out. . . .

Posted by: logprof at November 03, 2009 10:21 PM (I3Udb)

64 Posted by: Trois Pistoles at November 03, 2009 10:21 PM (lxEx/)

Is that a Tragically Hip ref? Great song live and really, REALLY loud.

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 10:22 PM (Dh+s2)

65 Also Oswego County worries me - right now it says Hoffman up 51% - but SUNY Oswego is there - it just means they haven't counted the leftie campus votes yet

Posted by: chemjeff at November 03, 2009 10:22 PM (tJ4Ym)

66 THE GOP BLEW THIS BY BACKING THAT DUMB FAT ASS TRAITOR.

Posted by: Ken Royall at November 03, 2009 10:22 PM (9zzk+)

67 On the other hand, it's heartening to see that the Good People of AmeriKKKa got a whiff of the marxist stench from The Won, and didn't like it one bit. Hoffman having to run against the democrat, the socialist, AND the national party might just be too much. Just remember who was telling us how great a candidate Scuzzyfuck was come next 2010.
i agree, but you know as well as I that a hoffman loss is a victory not only for Owens and the democrats, but for the Frum wing of the republican party.
We will get the "i told you so" until 2010. It will also cause the Republican establishment to avoid conservative candidates when it can. It will cite this race.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:22 PM (bftbi)

68 wherestherum's bf doesn't vote in NY-23, does he? I think they're farther out...

Nope, where we live is just outside Hoffman's district. Believe me, if he could, the boy would be casting a vote for Hoffman. So would I if I weren't registered in CA.

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:23 PM (GZnia)

69 ACORN...

Posted by: Truman North at November 03, 2009 10:23 PM (XH/G8)

70 Why are there so many votes for Al Franken?

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 10:23 PM (j+aj1)

71 If Owens wins, watch for Scuzzlebutt to become a czar or ambassador or some other token of Il Douche's appreciation.

Posted by: Ian S. at November 03, 2009 10:24 PM (pg/HS)

72 it's not just that. It is the fact that Scuttlebutt is pulling in so many votes.

And I take it absentee ballots have yet to be counted (or won't be counted until tomorrow)? Because that would explain a lot of those, I suspect.

Posted by: Fortunate Son at November 03, 2009 10:24 PM (B7kwl)

73 Nope, where we live is just outside Hoffman's
district. Believe me, if he could, the boy would be casting a vote for
Hoffman. So would I if I weren't registered in CA.


Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:23 PM (GZnia)
--Damn, that sucks, especially if it's close!

Posted by: logprof at November 03, 2009 10:24 PM (I3Udb)

74 NY-23 the message is to the GOP leadership. Now, if Hoffman loses, do they still get the message? If Hoffman + the early/absentee ballot for Scuzzy add up to 50%+1 vote, then they should get the damn message, even if he loses.

Posted by: sexypig at November 03, 2009 10:24 PM (vIdTW)

75 5% for the Scozzy. You get the feeling that some people just shouldn't vote?

Posted by: fozzy at November 03, 2009 10:25 PM (ccEuN)

76 "We will get the "i told you so" until 2010. It will also cause the Republican establishment to avoid conservative candidates when it can. It will cite this race."

Unfortunately, if Hoffman loses, that is exactly what will happen, because results are the only thing that is going to get the national GOP to throw all its weight behind full-bore conservative candidates.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 10:25 PM (mFUln)

77 67, you nailed what will suck if Hoffman loses. 2010 will probably not go well as the GOP continues to split apart.

Posted by: Scott J. at November 03, 2009 10:25 PM (WMXl8)

78 The D talking heads are just as stupid as our trolls.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 10:25 PM (HAdov)

79 Damn, that sucks, especially if it's close!
Apparently we're district 25. (I just looked it up.) Argh!

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:25 PM (GZnia)

80 rum

Posted by: Truman North at November 03, 2009 10:25 PM (XH/G8)

81 Well there goes Glenn Beck's plans for a third party system.
If hoffman loses we can expect a lot of people to avoid third parties that may have otherwise given them a fair shot.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:25 PM (bftbi)

82 i agree, but you know as well as I that a hoffman loss is a victory not
only for Owens and the democrats, but for the Frum wing of the
republican party.

No, the fault is with the party bosses who picked Scozzafava in the first place. Instead of the many good conservative-ish candidates available, the one who decided to go rogue, Hoffman, was probably the worst available.

I predict neither Owens nor Hoffman will represent NY-23 in 2011, regardless of what happens with this special election.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 10:25 PM (T0NGe)

83
NY-23 the message is to the GOP leadership. Now, if Hoffman loses, do
they still get the message? If Hoffman + the early/absentee ballot for
Scuzzy add up to 50%+1 vote, then they should get the damn message,
even if he loses.

Posted by: sexypig at November 03, 2009 10:24 PM (vIdTW)
--Yup, and I hope they realize how they blew it.

Posted by: logprof at November 03, 2009 10:27 PM (I3Udb)

84 See? You should have listened to me.

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at November 03, 2009 10:27 PM (gZCV8)

85 75 5% for the Scozzy. You get the feeling that some people just shouldn't vote?
That just means 5% of the electorate consists of Scozzy's family and pink pant suit manufacturers.

Posted by: chemjeff at November 03, 2009 10:27 PM (tJ4Ym)

86 That stupid bitch is getting enough votes to make the difference, she should have gotten out long ago.

Posted by: Ken Royall at November 03, 2009 10:27 PM (9zzk+)

87 If Hoffman doesnt win, and the GOP tries to use this as a case of "See We should have supported the DIABLO" then watch the conservative movement turn on them. Hopefully the GOP will take this as a lesson. Conservatives will not accept a far left liberal on the Republican party. We took a stand for principals even if that meant losing the seat. They backed the wrong horse and allowed the Democrat to win. They spent the money on the turncoat liberal that would have voted for card-check and big government. If the GOP establishment thinks they won in the NY-23rd today then 2010 will beugly for them.

Posted by: California Red at November 03, 2009 10:27 PM (tW88P)

88 it's not just that. It is the fact that Scuttlebutt is pulling in so many votes.And I take it absentee ballots have yet to be counted (or won't be counted until tomorrow)? Because that would explain a lot of those, I suspect.
And who normally wins absentee ballot races?

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:28 PM (bftbi)

89 A close loss would suck but Corzine losing is too sweet.
The GOP effed up NY-23 and lets be honest, Hoffman is a doorknob, albeit a decent one. No college kids were going to vote for him sadly.
Still not over but not encouraging.

Posted by: jjshaka at November 03, 2009 10:28 PM (OvG4h)

90 There's only a little over 1/3 of precincts reporting and Hoffman's only down by 3300 votes, he still has a good chance to win this, it's very much up in the air, don't go all crazy just because he doesn't have a 12-point lead or something.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 10:28 PM (mFUln)

91 1/3 reporting
Owens 51
Hoffman 44
Scrunty 5

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:28 PM (bftbi)

92 Hi, ATN! Long time no see. What's your take on the current NY23 insanity?

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:29 PM (GZnia)

93 Now wait a minute, I've had to listen to many a leftist argue that if the exit polls and the vote totals differ, someone must be tampering with the latter. Think Kos and co will back an investigation into what really happened in NY23 if Hoff loses?

Posted by: 18-1 at November 03, 2009 10:29 PM (bgcml)

94 Oh well, you may as well brace yourselves for tomorrow's Media Spin:

Virginia: Means NOTHING

New Jersey: Means NOTHING

Obscure District in New York: It was All About Obama, Baby!

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 03, 2009 10:29 PM (QECjC)

95 any word on CA-10?

Posted by: Truman North at November 03, 2009 10:29 PM (XH/G8)

96 We will get the "i told you so" until 2010

You really think they'll double down like that, Ben? I mean of course the frums and brooks will run that b.s. line, but there have to be some hard-eyed realists left in the party that know what the f*ck is happening here. This is repudiation, slap in the face, a big middle finger to the RINOs. If they do play it that way, at the least we'll know the party is truly dead and there's no saving it from itself. I can see a shakeup happening in the RNC, though. Love to see Steele and his enablers joining the ranks of the funemployed as a result of these results.

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 10:30 PM (Dh+s2)

97 39% in and Hoffman down by 5 now.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!

Posted by: tom_06060 at November 03, 2009 10:30 PM (t8Np3)

98 Holy shit he just took a jump!

27,972
50%2,877
5%25,422
45%

Posted by: Ken Royall at November 03, 2009 10:30 PM (9zzk+)

99 Hoffman just tanked 64 points on ntrade

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:30 PM (bftbi)

100 Any word on that California district? According to WaPo, it wasn;t close, sadly.

Posted by: logprof at November 03, 2009 10:31 PM (I3Udb)

101 One piece of good news. Large and liberal Clinton County is mostly counted now (61/70 precincts) while many smaller, more Republican counties have no votes counted.

Still, liberal St. Lawrence is still mostly uncounted.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at November 03, 2009 10:31 PM (cxGtL)

102

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:28 PM (bftbi)

Let's face it, what killed Hoffman was being a third party candidate. If he had been the official Republican nominee, he'd had won.

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 03, 2009 10:31 PM (QECjC)

103 64.... the brew is not bad either http://unibroue.com/products/3pistoles.cfm

Posted by: Trois Pistoles at November 03, 2009 10:32 PM (lxEx/)

104 We will get the "i told you so" until 2010You really think they'll double down like that, Ben? I mean of course the frums and brooks will run that b.s. line, but there have to be some hard-eyed realists left in the party that know what the f*ck is happening here. This is repudiation, slap in the face, a big middle finger to the RINOs. If they do play it that way, at the least we'll know the party is truly dead and there's no saving it from itself. I can see a shakeup happening in the RNC, though. Love to see Steele and his enablers joining the ranks of the funemployed as a result of these results.
Yes I most definately think they will. They did in 2006 and 2008 .Do you really think the establishment will see it our way?

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:32 PM (bftbi)

105 I don't agree that a Hoffman loss is all bad (a win would be better of course). I think regardless of the outcome (as long as it's close, which I think it will be either way), the message has been sent that the conservative base will rebel and the Republican Party will lose elections that it could win.

Yes we'll have to listen to the MSM carp and concern-troll, and the Frumians and all that crap, but Hoffman isn't going to be a 15% spoiler that just gives the Dems a win. Remember, this all happened in a few weeks, if they had picked him to run as the Republican, he would have had time (and $$) to win (handily?)

I think the conservative wings of the party (fiscal and social) have made gains here. If so, I will welcome Newt back.

Posted by: whatever at November 03, 2009 10:32 PM (XIXhw)

106 And who normally wins absentee ballot races?

Can't remember where I read this, but some blog was talking about a strong military presence in the area; presumably, many of them would have voted for the R just because, possibly long before she imploded.

Of course, some 'tards still voted for her, but...

Posted by: Fortunate Son at November 03, 2009 10:32 PM (B7kwl)

107 70
Why are there so many votes for Al Franken?







Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 10:23 PM (j+aj1)
Hey, we told you we were big on recycling.Oh, and if you see any Lizard People ballots, count those for Dede.

Posted by: The DNC at November 03, 2009 10:32 PM (bgcml)

108 In 2008 NY-23 only had 199,000 in turnout. Since it's a special election (as opposed to a heavy-turnout Presidential election), expect 1/3rd to 40% of that. 70-80,000.
We're halfway to that count with a 7% deficit... Not looking good.

Posted by: Rasputin at November 03, 2009 10:32 PM (JCSGM)

109 Hoffman just gained 800 votes he's only down by 2550 or so now... He'd already be in the lead if you assume all of Scozzafava's votes would be Hoffman's votes which is undoubtedly a fault assumption but Hoffman is in great position to pull this out if he keeps gaining like this.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 10:32 PM (mFUln)

110 I did a Google on the CA 10 and nothing really comes up. Anyway, if it's going Dem, well, that's no surprise, is it? California's lost, sadly.

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:33 PM (GZnia)

111 93 Hi, ATN! Long time no see. What's your take on the current NY23 insanity?
It's so nice to be on the same thread as you after all this time!
My take is: Conservatives have nothing, and I mean nothing, to lose by running and voting for any conservative they can this cycle. The GOP needs to get pulled to the right, RIGHT NOW, not in 2012, not in 2016...
Let the check-pants crowd that lives and dies at the Georgetown cocktail parties know that we're not. goddamned. going. to. vote. for. any. goddamned. liberal. Republicans! Not now or ever.

Posted by: Truman North at November 03, 2009 10:33 PM (XH/G8)

112 Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:28 PM (bftbi) Let's face it, what killed Hoffman was being a third party candidate. If he had been the official Republican nominee, he'd had won.
I am willing to bet at least 1/3 of Scozafava's votes were people who pulled the republican line and thought hoffman was the republican. However that may still not be enough for him to have won. If Owens wins with 51 percent, it will be fair to say neither hoffman or scozafava would have probably won

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:33 PM (bftbi)

113 He's closed it from 8 to 4 points...

Posted by: JP at November 03, 2009 10:34 PM (Fbe3F)

114 Fox is showing 49/45 for Owens with 47 pct reporting.

Posted by: Retread at November 03, 2009 10:34 PM (pZ47R)

115
39% in and Hoffman down by 5 now.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!

Um, dummy, the Germans didn't bomb Pearl Harbor. It was the Chinese.

Posted by: Joe Biden at November 03, 2009 10:34 PM (XIXhw)

116 And who normally wins absentee ballot races?Can't remember where I read this, but some blog was talking about a strong military presence in the area; presumably, many of them would have voted for the R just because, possibly long before she imploded. Of course, some 'tards still voted for her, but...
And what do democratic governors do with absentee military ballots?

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:35 PM (bftbi)

117 Does NY have straight ticket voting?

Posted by: Ken Royall at November 03, 2009 10:35 PM (9zzk+)

118 3 points with 54% in.

Posted by: JP at November 03, 2009 10:35 PM (Fbe3F)

119 -3%, now... he's pulling up....

Posted by: Editor at November 03, 2009 10:35 PM (YX6i/)

120 Most of Owens' best precincts are in...it's not enough of a lead to hold.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 10:35 PM (MTcoh)

121 down by 3!!!

Posted by: tom_06060 at November 03, 2009 10:35 PM (t8Np3)

122 I'm hearing on hot air that 3 precints?don't publish online and another's having voting machine problems and won't report till tomorrow.

Posted by: Dale in San Antonio (Not Dave!) at November 03, 2009 10:36 PM (sXEVG)

123 I'm enjoying listening to Levin rip the Lt. Gov. of CA.

Posted by: logprof at November 03, 2009 10:36 PM (I3Udb)

124 CA polls close at 8 PST. Results here:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elect-results/cd10-results.htm


Posted by: schizoid at November 03, 2009 10:36 PM (gZCV8)

125 If he had been the official Republican nominee, he'd had won.

Oh I don't know about that. If he had been the Republican nominee, he would have actually had to run a campaign against Owens. As it stands now, he was able to run a campaign against... everyone, as the iconoclastic reformer. Methinks his power derives from his outsider status.

Posted by: chemjeff at November 03, 2009 10:37 PM (tJ4Ym)

126 Also, please note, that as a general rule, absentee ballots are counted and reported first - which may explain the Dede vote being what it is. Thus, her current five could melt to 3 (around what the exit polls showed) if that is the case.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 03, 2009 10:37 PM (V9SYy)

127 Don't panic yet... it's gonna be a long night.

Posted by: Vet Missing Parts at November 03, 2009 10:37 PM (MCHyX)

128 i am not familiar with the district. which districts are heavily republican and which usually split?

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:37 PM (bftbi)

129 ATN, you should have seen/heard the anti-Hoffman ads they were running out here. Same old schlock they run in CA. "Hoffman is a millionaire and only cares about millionaires! He wants to cut taxes for the rich!"

Wouldn't it be nice if people had brains and used logic?

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:37 PM (GZnia)

130 Guys, chill, Hoffman is probably going to win. Most of Scozzawhateva's count came from early-filed absentee ballots. The exit polls say live voters and indeps undecideds broke heavily Hoffman. Don't be spazmoids.

Posted by: Bust of Churchill at November 03, 2009 10:37 PM (4JVZP)

131 okay it's tightening
at 2236: Owens 49%/Hoffman 46%

Posted by: chemjeff at November 03, 2009 10:38 PM (tJ4Ym)

132 I'm hearing on hot air that 3 precints?don't publish online and
another's having voting machine problems and won't report till tomorrow.

And.... bingo! There are your pocket votes for the Democrat if he needs them.

Posted by: whatever at November 03, 2009 10:38 PM (XIXhw)

133 If he had been the official Republican nominee, he'd had won.Oh I don't know about that. If he had been the Republican nominee, he would have actually had to run a campaign against Owens. As it stands now, he was able to run a campaign against... everyone, as the iconoclastic reformer. Methinks his power derives from his outsider status.
i agree. kind of like how teh Fred had the highest polling before he got into the primaries.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:38 PM (bftbi)

134 on Michelle Malkin's page...

"Watertown Daily News reports that four St. Lawrence towns suffered machine glitches that may delay vote tally until tomorrow."

Posted by: tom_06060 at November 03, 2009 10:38 PM (t8Np3)

135 Wouldn't it be nice if people had brains and used logic?

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:37 PM (GZnia)
You want to disenfranchise us!!! Oh and did you say BRAAAAIINNNNSSSS???

Posted by: Zombie Dems at November 03, 2009 10:39 PM (bgcml)

136 3% plus ACORN plus no GOP lawyers = Owens

Posted by: Truman North at November 03, 2009 10:39 PM (XH/G8)

137 And what do democratic governors do with absentee military ballots?

Burn them!

(apologies to Monty Python)

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:39 PM (GZnia)

138 hoffman stock dropped 62 on INTRADE currently

also AoSHQ running slow

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:39 PM (bftbi)

139 "Watertown Daily News reports that four St. Lawrence towns suffered machine glitches that may delay vote tally until tomorrow."
"Quick! Start running off some 'ballots' for Owens that we can 'find' tomorrow morning.

Posted by: Xoxotl at November 03, 2009 10:40 PM (OSj+V)

140
What is really opening up eyes (and cracking skulls) with the GOP is Hoffman's fund raising in the last month. They can't deny that part, no matter how they spin the rest. And there's no way they want to see that money walk. I think they'll listen (this time). But then I'm an Astros fan, so I don't know any better than to stay with the loser.

Go Hoff, 3% woooo!

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 10:40 PM (Dh+s2)

141 Ni!

Posted by: Knights who speak thusly at November 03, 2009 10:40 PM (92zkk)

142 "Problems with machines," eh? Sounds like KKKarl Rove and DIEBOLD are up to theyre old tricks! GITMO!

Posted by: Your Asshole Liberal Douchebag Friends at November 03, 2009 10:40 PM (6yEzu)

143 Posted by: Bust of Churchill
Do you miss the Oval Office?

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 10:40 PM (9Wv2j)

144 St. Lawrence is one of the most liberal. If they will report tomorrow it will mean 5 points for Owens. Votes sitting around in liberal precincts are also the devil's workshop. They tend to breed and multiply the longer they go uncounted. Not good, folks.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at November 03, 2009 10:40 PM (cxGtL)

145 133 I'm hearing on hot air that 3 precints?don't publish online and another's having voting machine problems and won't report till tomorrow.And.... bingo! There are your pocket votes for the Democrat if he needs them.
Yep, this seals it. It'll be Owens even if it takes nine months.

Posted by: Truman North at November 03, 2009 10:41 PM (XH/G8)

146 Hoffman down by 2313... at this rate he'll pull even or ahead with somewhere around 2/3 to 3/4 of precincts reporting that's a very rough guess though.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 10:41 PM (mFUln)

147 He may be closing the percentage gap but he's not closing the total vote gap. It's not over yet, but I'm still very, very worried.

Posted by: Mariner at November 03, 2009 10:41 PM (ohmHG)

148 135

is St Lawrence republican or demoratic? it looks like Owens has 60 percent there, so any delay there would most likely help him if he "needed" votes

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:41 PM (bftbi)

149 I got that email reminder to vote, but couldn't bother to get in the car and go for a little drive. Maybe I should have?

Posted by: fluffy at November 03, 2009 10:42 PM (SwkdU)

150 One of you morons broke the Saratogian website for NY-23. Stop clicking refresh every 5 seconds.

Posted by: whatever at November 03, 2009 10:42 PM (XIXhw)

151 Will someone please tell the Hot Air web guys to get that fucking malware shit off their site?

Posted by: Watcher at November 03, 2009 10:42 PM (0/LGt)

152 Well that ones over.

Posted by: Mr. Pink at November 03, 2009 10:43 PM (m5aSu)

153 I swear if Hoffman wins this, I'm gonna stick my Corzine in someone's Scozzafava.

Posted by: libbyt at November 03, 2009 10:43 PM (YH50v)

154 I wonder how many of the Scozzafava votes were early votes i.e. before she dropped out and showed her Democrat colors?

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 10:44 PM (cvmTR)

155 On a side note from the corner Mark Styne:
You too can be Michelle Obama:
One of the things that my mom always said because people ask her all the time, 'What did you do to create Michelle Obama?'" Mrs. Obama told the audience. "And the one thing my mom has always said, and I agree, she said, 'You know, Michelle and Barack aren't new.' She says, 'Michelle and Barack are not unique.' She says, 'There are thousands of Michelle and Barack Obamas all over this nation, in neighborhoods and communities all over the place. And she is absolutely right. She is absolutely right. There is no magic to us."
Are there really thousands of Michelle and Barack Obamas? Or does it just seem like that from the TV interviews and magazine covers?

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 10:44 PM (Z/wYm)

156 Shit. Der Krieg ist Verloren

How could we win New freaking Jersey, but not a Republican district in rural upstate new york that hasn't gone democrat in 100+ years

un freaking believable.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:46 PM (bftbi)

157 There are thousands of Michelle and Barack Obamas all over this nation, in neighborhoods and communities all over the place.

That's horrifying. Thousands of anti-American socialists everywhere.

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:46 PM (GZnia)

158 RCP
10:42 -- Hoffman's in real trouble in upstate New York. He'd have to carry the remaining portion of the district with about 54% of the two-party vote in order to win. Its frustrating not knowing where the remaining votes are located. --SEAN TRENDE

Posted by: flenser at November 03, 2009 10:46 PM (xWnUn)

159 Are there really thousands of Michelle and Barack Obamas? Or does it
just seem like that from the TV interviews and magazine covers?

That's it!

Clones!

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 10:46 PM (T0NGe)

160 Hoffman is going to lose, it seems. Damn. Fuck. 'Swounds.

But still, we won the NJ and VA governor seats. And if those fuckers hadn't nominated Scozzafava in the first place, we wouldn't be in this situation.

Posted by: Jeff B. at November 03, 2009 10:47 PM (GhUHn)

161 Hoffman down 66 points on INTRADE.

he's pulling a corzine. I think it is fair to say he will not win

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:47 PM (bftbi)

162 I think I liked the Clones in Star Wars better than Obama ones.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 10:47 PM (cvmTR)

163 #161 not yet, still enough votes left for Hoffman, if they come in as expected, hoffman wins between 1-2K. They key is they have to come in as expected.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 10:48 PM (HAdov)

164 The fat lady is still in her dressing room.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 10:48 PM (j+aj1)

165 Time for beddy by for this pig.

Before I go, I predict Hoffman squeaks it out and the conservatives sweep the table. Hell, if NJ can come through so can the Hoffmeister. You can take that to the bank.

( And pigs know about banks...)

Posted by: Warthog at November 03, 2009 10:48 PM (WDySP)

166 Aren't the NJ and VA governor wins more important, though? Isn't NY23 only significant in the message it sends to the GOP rather than the nation as a whole? I think the governors races say more about teh Won's presidency than NY23.

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:48 PM (GZnia)

167 Clones?

Posted by: Jim Rome at November 03, 2009 10:49 PM (XH/G8)

168 its already on fox. People talking about the "extreme right wing candidate"

this is f'ing damaging.

The governorships are meaningless to me. This was an ideological struggle within our party. This meant more to me.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:49 PM (bftbi)

169 Again from the Corner: Michael "I like to say dumb things" Steele says the results are not a referendum on Obama.
WTF

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 10:49 PM (Z/wYm)

170 CNN just called the World Series for the Yankees!

Posted by: concious, but incoherent at November 03, 2009 10:49 PM (kn+jW)

171 that gerbil for the dems Shultz is on FOX

Posted by: YRM at November 03, 2009 10:50 PM (xNw7B)

172 @167

It's the completeness of the three that grabs attention. Leave any holes in the armor and we'll see them spin that into "it doesn't show anything."

Posted by: Vet Missing Parts at November 03, 2009 10:50 PM (MCHyX)

173 I think I liked the Clones in Star Wars better than Obama ones.

I trust Vader more than teh Won. At least Vader was honest about intergalactic domination.

Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:50 PM (GZnia)

174 Hope mike bloomberg gets the message.

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 10:50 PM (p302b)

175 I'd have to agree with wherestherum. NY23 is more a lesson for the GOP and Republican's than it is for anything else. It tells me the GOP better screen their candidates a bit better. The people will not be fooled again.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 10:50 PM (cvmTR)

176 Even if Hoffman doesn't win - Owens won't get 50% of the vote and he won't be in the office long enough to get the seat warm. He'll be out in the 2010 tsunami election.

Posted by: chemjeff at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (tJ4Ym)

177 This Hoff thing is looking like when Ric Keller won the primary by 2k here in FLA last cycle. You just knew Long was not going to make up the difference and blamed all those ignorant asses that only read the leftist rag papers...

Posted by: TheGarbone at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (ozU4L)

178 MSNBC isn't even covering the elections. Olberdoche is rambling on about the world series. No scrolling results, no nothing. What election...?

Posted by: Jeff Immelt at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (SK3Pv)

179 Fulton County went 54-44 for McCain last year. He beat Obama by 2100 votes.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (MTcoh)

180 This is the one I really wanted as well--more than NJ because it would have served to show the Party who to nominate in the future. Now we'll see more Dede Quislingfava's in 2010.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (cxGtL)

181 167, I agree but getting the GOP's mind right is more important to me at the moment.
Otherwise it's a much longer slog through the alternate party world and I don't believe The Republic has enough time left for that.

Posted by: Scott J. at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (WMXl8)

182 Watching this minute-by-minute stuff makes my stomach hurt.

Posted by: katya at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (RbvF+)

183
Posted by: Dave in Nebraska at November 03, 2009 10:49 PM (2I9tj)
Debbi Walscherman Shultz, a hack woman from my state that will kill herself if Pelosi told her to

Posted by: YRM at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (xNw7B)

184 The fat lady is looking for her shoes.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (j+aj1)

185 New Jersey was a big upset for the Dims. If Hoffman doesn't win this year he should run next year as the Republican candidate and will win. It's Piggy Scuzzyfuzzy's votes that are the difference in the race.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 03, 2009 10:51 PM (pbnf9)

186 WeeWee may say he was not watching the returns but he has sent out the talking points. Right-wing extremist Hoffman - internal struggle within the party and the Right-wing loses. F*ckers.

Posted by: 2010orBust at November 03, 2009 10:52 PM (/mbDE)

187 MSNBC just gave the HEISMAN to CHEWBACCA OBAMA.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 10:52 PM (MaqIC)

188 I extrapolated the county by county totals Ace linked to--If each county keeps breaking according to its currently reported totals, Hoffman will lose 45% to 49%.

Not sure if that means much; also Fulton county has yet to report at all.

Posted by: JP at November 03, 2009 10:52 PM (Fbe3F)

189 25 Well Hoffman was/is fighting agains the GOP and DEMS, and Dede... Hell hath no fury etc...
Posted by: spypeach at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (T2zrn)

hell hath no fury etc.....like a fat bitch scorned.

Posted by: Jaimo at November 03, 2009 10:52 PM (MqcAZ)

190 Again from the Corner: Michael "I like to say dumb things" Steele says the results are not a referendum on Obama.
We've got to get that idiot out of any position of power in the party. Now.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at November 03, 2009 10:52 PM (554T5)

191 Wait, WAIT! Eric Ericson tweeted just 10 minutes ago the Hoffman people think they've WON!

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 03, 2009 10:53 PM (QECjC)

192 175
I think I liked the Clones in Star Wars better than Obama ones.

I trust Vader more than teh Won. At least Vader was honest about intergalactic domination.


Posted by: wherestherum at November 03, 2009 10:50 PM (GZnia)
Vader could also make a gawd damn decision in a timely fashion too. There was no meeting of the minds when the Imperials screwed up in ESB. He just chocked the dumbass who made the jump and got the next guy in and kicked some ass.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 10:53 PM (cvmTR)

193 @156 "How could we win New freaking Jersey, but not a Republican district in
rural upstate new york that hasn't gone democrat in 100+ years
un freaking believable."

Because the Republican Freakin' Party foisted a bonified liberal upon that district a liberal democrat for weeks, until conservatives got wind of it. And when true conservatives got wind of it, we fought back.

But it was too little, too late. When the Republican candidate withdraws from the race and then the next day - not 24 hours later! - endorses the Democrat, then things are just not right.


Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 10:53 PM (92zkk)

194 Even if Hoffman doesn't win - Owens won't get 50% of the vote and he won't be in the office long enough to get the seat warm. He'll be out in the 2010 tsunami election.

Yeah, but who is riding the wave in 2010, a bunch of Scozafavvas?

This is really damaging to us fiscal conservatives.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:53 PM (bftbi)

195 Is the sound on foxnews hd messed up for anyone else?

It sounds like someone is playing a cassette tape backwards

Posted by: Doc at November 03, 2009 10:54 PM (rzJpR)

196 Good run Hoffman. Use the year to build a personality so you'll be ready to hold the seat next time around.

Posted by: Buckleyfan at November 03, 2009 10:54 PM (DtTM9)

197 The fat lady has found her shoes, but she's wondering if they might squeak.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 10:54 PM (j+aj1)

198 Vader didn't have everything handed to him AND he had a job.

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 10:54 PM (Z/wYm)

199 Time for the lawyers. Demand a recount and a signature verification on all of the mail ins.

You didn't think that the democrats were going to lose this election did you. They made sure...just enough to win it.

Watch for a refusal for a recount. Watch for no investigation.

This is just a taste of what is to come.

Papa Ray

Posted by: Papa Ray at November 03, 2009 10:54 PM (JpVJn)

200 Err, insert "who was" somewhere in the first sentence.

Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 10:55 PM (92zkk)

201 Aren't the NJ and VA governor wins more important, though? Isn't NY23
only significant in the message it sends to the GOP rather than the
nation as a whole? I think the governors races say more about teh Won's
presidency than NY23.

NY-23 is to help set the table for 2010. That's why it's important.

Posted by: whatever at November 03, 2009 10:55 PM (XIXhw)

202 They just said Bo doesn't care and mom and the girls went to a Miley Cyrus concert. For a guy who doesn't care he sure went out of his way to campaign for the two guys who lost. What I don't get is how come the prez is campaigning for anyone? Shouldn't the prez keep his nose out of this political stuff since he is the prez.


Woo Hooo corzine conceding...go Christie...

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 10:55 PM (p302b)

203 I love how we're all experts on NY-23's voting habits now. Hell, I don't even know my own precinct that well...

Posted by: Fortunate Son at November 03, 2009 10:55 PM (B7kwl)

204 i am going to go have a nice glass of orange juice and brood, then sulk, then come back to comment some more

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:55 PM (bftbi)

205 Owens 47,826
Hoffman 44,349
Scuzzy the Hut 5,294

Her votes are the difference.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 03, 2009 10:56 PM (pbnf9)

206 Hoffman 2010.

Posted by: California Red at November 03, 2009 10:56 PM (tW88P)

207 I don't think Steele means to suck. Maybe he just needs a little re-education. Perhaps a few weeks at the heritage foundation or an hour with Antonin Scalia...

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 10:56 PM (Z/wYm)

208 167
Aren't the NJ and VA governor wins more important, though? Isn't NY23
only significant in the message it sends to the GOP rather than the
nation as a whole? I think the governors races say more about teh Won's
presidency than NY23.

VASTLY more important. If Owens does win, he will likely not be a Congressman in 2011.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 10:56 PM (T0NGe)

209 At 2251: it's back to -3%

Posted by: chemjeff at November 03, 2009 10:56 PM (tJ4Ym)

210 The fat lady has decided to pick a different pair of shoes.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 10:56 PM (j+aj1)

211 He's pulling back, again with 68%... -3

Posted by: Editor at November 03, 2009 10:56 PM (YX6i/)

212 Corzine and his GROOVY BEARD is giving a concession speech. The guy standing behind him has a GROOVY BEARD too.


GROOVY MAN.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 10:56 PM (MaqIC)

213 NEWS ON HOFFMAN, TWEET FROM THE FIELD:

"Just talked to ppl close to Hoffman. They think he's won. Owens votes in. Their sampling tracks with what we're seeing."

In other words, Owens has shot his wad - Hoffman should surge to the end.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 03, 2009 10:57 PM (Gm9rd)

214 what the fuck do the hoffman people know that we don't?? they keep thinking they've won?? still reading the ppp polls from yesterday?

Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 03, 2009 10:57 PM (QXN+m)

215 Yep, my sound on Fox is FUBAR too.

Posted by: Countrysquire at November 03, 2009 10:57 PM (PpggK)

216 They'll blame Palin for NY23 if Hoffman loses. They'll point out that VA and NJ went out of their way to avoid her and won. Guarantee that is going to come up.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 10:57 PM (cvmTR)

217 Damn that LIBTARD BEARD is GROOOOOOOOOOOOOVY.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 10:57 PM (MaqIC)

218 Allah was right-- Scozzafava was drawing more votes from Owens than from Hoffman, and her exit from the race benefited, as I'm sure she guessed, Owens.
Sigh. His pessimism is justified.
Perhaps Scuzzy *wasn't* gracefully helping the GOP after all....

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 03, 2009 10:58 PM (IPGTN)

219 in the last 6 races the Democrats have averaged less than 25% in the NY 23rd

Posted by: John ryan at November 03, 2009 10:58 PM (m0Q2u)

220
Leaked exits (via Ben Smith's twitter account) had Hoffman leading Owens 50-47, with Scozzafava at 2.5%. At this rate, it'll be tomorrow before we know who won.
Given that Ben Smith of Politico fame is something of a dick, i don't know if we should buy this.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (IPGTN)

221 Hoffman has been stuck at ~3500 behind for a while now. Frustrating.

BTW, Corzine will be back, He'll run for the Senate again next chance he gets.

Posted by: Doc at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (rzJpR)

222 The fat lady has found a new pair of shoes.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (j+aj1)

223 If HOFFMAN loses, he'll be back and club Owens like a baby seal in a year.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (MaqIC)

224 The union slugs counting the votes have gone home for the night. Results will have to wait until tomorrow!

Posted by: concious, but incoherent at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (kn+jW)

225 V is on for me, now. Does that mean I can go to the V-thread?

Posted by: Editor at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (YX6i/)

226 I didn't buy enough fucking vino for this night--egad!
Seriously who thought NY would be the nailbiter and Jersey would be the lock?
Gnarles Barkley be right--shit be crazy.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (QXN+m)

227 Exactly, laceyundies. What do the Hoffman folks know that we don't?

Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (92zkk)

228 They'll blame Palin for NY23 if Hoffman loses. They'll point out that
VA and NJ went out of their way to avoid her and won. Guarantee that
is going to come up.

Unfortunately for her, Sarah is quickly replacing Bush as the entity liberals can blame everything on, from natural disasters to hangnails.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at November 03, 2009 11:00 PM (554T5)

229 If I were Hoffman I would contest the race if he loses. Even if he does not think he would end up winning. Let them taste some lawyer upping.

Posted by: 2010orBust at November 03, 2009 11:00 PM (/mbDE)

230 Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 03, 2009 10:57 PM (QXN+m)

They know the exact precincts that have come in, not just counties.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 11:00 PM (MTcoh)

231 In other words, Owens has shot his wad - Hoffman should surge to the end.
Bring her home baby, baby, bring her home

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 11:00 PM (Z/wYm)

232 some dumbass just shouted thank you to Corzine? God some people are fucked up, how can you be proud of a 1 term failure of an administration

Posted by: YRM at November 03, 2009 11:00 PM (xNw7B)

233 Heck, I tivo'ed V. I'll watch it tomorrow.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:00 PM (cvmTR)

234 Heh, just before I clicked refresh on the results I noted that Clinton county had 666 votes for scuzzy.

Posted by: Scott J. at November 03, 2009 11:00 PM (WMXl8)

235
This is really damaging to us fiscal conservatives.

The Hell it is. This guy ran with no money with 2 national parties initially against him. The RNC will get the message. Demint has already endorsed Devore in CA.

Posted by: Lebowski at November 03, 2009 11:00 PM (DIYmd)

236 221 Ah here we go!!One little fucking congressional seat(special election too)is more important than losing two governors right douche??

Posted by: steevy at November 03, 2009 11:01 PM (F79OE)

237 Just back from an 8 day vacation -no internet, no email and mobile phoneturned off.
What a great night.
Republican blowouts in VA andNJ... and Ace gets to write the ultimate snark headlineon hellfire missiles,bears and jihadis.
Just keep chuckin that ficken Dems.

Posted by: Huckleberry at November 03, 2009 11:01 PM (F71c5)

238 Good love Hoffman, but he really is a complete nerd. Bad teeth too.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 03, 2009 11:01 PM (Gm9rd)

239 SUMMON THE METEORS!

Posted by: Unclefacts, Summoner of Bacons, and the Odd Meteor at November 03, 2009 11:01 PM (erIg9)

240 10:58 -- Things aren't as great for Democrats in
upstate NY as I thought. Clinton, Essex and Franklin counties, the
Democratic strongholds, are largely in. Fulton County, which went for
McCain with 54% of the vote, isn't in yet. Lewis County, another 54%
McCain county is still out. On the other hand, St. Lawrence County, a
58% Obama County, is only half in. I guess it depends what happens in
those counties and in the remainder of Oswego County. Still not great
news for Hoffman, though. --SEAN TRENDE at RCP

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at November 03, 2009 11:02 PM (cxGtL)

241 The fat lady likes her new shoes, but wonders if they match her outfit.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 11:02 PM (j+aj1)

242 Every district except St. Lawrence that still has votes to report is going for Hoffman just about... he has a chance for sure.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:02 PM (mFUln)

243 Corzine thanked Daggett for civility. He didn't mention his weight at all.
This is LIBERALISM.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:02 PM (MaqIC)

244 CA polls close shortly. When examining the CA-10 results keep in mind that this is a distrcit that went for Obama 34+ in 2008. The registration is +18D. The district has been D since 1994. And the D candidate is the Lt. Governor of the freaking state, in statewide office or in the Federal government for over 20 years. The Democrats had to put a prize fighter up to take on a relative unknown. I think the D's will carry it narrowly, but if you look closely you will see great weakness in the Democratic ability to hold thier seats. There is no way the seat shoudl even be competitive, except that the Democrats have been acting like crackheads since lastNovember.

Posted by: California Red at November 03, 2009 11:02 PM (tW88P)

245 God I wish that were Obama giving that speech Corzine is right now.

Posted by: 2010orBust at November 03, 2009 11:03 PM (/mbDE)

246 True dat Soap, true dat. It sucks, but we'll see how Palin handles it. She seems to prefer a head to head gunfight unlike Bush, who never really went after the smear merchants. I'm not saying he should've done what Obama is doing with Foxnews, but he sure as hell could've been better at confronting the "errors" in reporting with more interviews and direct engagement by his staff.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:03 PM (cvmTR)

247 Hey, even if Hoffman can't pull it out (AND I'M STILL BELIEVIN' THAT HE WILL!!!) we have to remember:
He wasn't even in it a month ago and had the GOP done the right thing back when they nominated that Sangerist those votes for ScuzzyFlava woulda/coulda had him over the top even now.....
Message to the GOP: Conservatism is the way of the future!!!! Reaganism, not Scozzaflavaism is what will fix the wrongs that we're fighting now!

Posted by: NC Ref at November 03, 2009 11:03 PM (6igqT)

248 234 some dumbass just shouted thank you to Corzine? God some people are fucked up, how can you be proud of a 1 term failure of an administration

Ah also started Habitat for Humanitah, boy

Posted by: Jimmah Cahtuh at November 03, 2009 11:03 PM (XH/G8)

249 The fat lady hasn't even put her girdle on yet. Have some faith kids.

Posted by: Countrysquire at November 03, 2009 11:04 PM (PpggK)

250 in the last 6 races the Democrats have averaged less than 25% in the NY 23rd

I never engage trolls, but this time I have to... comparing results from an election with an entrenched incumbent to an open seat race is even more ridiculous than comparing turnout between odd-year and presidential-year elections. Read a book on politics sometime.

Posted by: Doc at November 03, 2009 11:04 PM (rzJpR)

251
So, to put it in perspective: the only race the democrat party was capable of winning, was one in which the GOP joined them in campaigning against the Conservative.

I'm ok with that. It's not doom and gloom, by any means. The shitbag leftists got their asses kicked today. And this is just the appetizer for '10. Plenty of time to put our own house in order.

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 11:04 PM (Dh+s2)

252 Corzine said New Jerseyians deserve a good education.
TRANSLATION: Union Teachers should get more money.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:04 PM (MaqIC)

253 shit
no one lives in fulton county. guess we can't depend on them

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 11:04 PM (bftbi)

254 204
They just said Bo doesn't care and mom and the girls went to a Miley
Cyrus concert. For a guy who doesn't care he sure went out of his way
to campaign for the two guys who lost. What I don't get is how come
the prez is campaigning for anyone? Shouldn't the prez keep his nose
out of this political stuff since he is the prez.

Damn, Barack is 0 for 2 and Biden is the only one whose guy has a chance of winning.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:04 PM (T0NGe)

255 in the last 6 races the Democrats have averaged less than 25% in the NY 23rd

Posted by: John ryan at November 03, 2009 10:58 PM (m0Q2u)
In your entire life your IQ has never gotten above a 25.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 03, 2009 11:04 PM (pbnf9)

256 Fat lady applying her make up. Gets out throught spray bottle and does a little "mee mee mee"

Posted by: Max Power at November 03, 2009 11:05 PM (q177U)

257 CNN just called the World Series for the Yankees!
Posted by: concious, but incoherent at November 03, 2009 10:49 PM (kn+jW)
(Slobbering copiously) Well, I concur!

Posted by: Joe Buck at November 03, 2009 11:05 PM (qP2BK)

258 Those 4 precincts in Fulton must be large. Fulton County had 21000+ total votes cast last year. Yeah it's off year but there should be way more than 2000 votes.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 11:05 PM (MTcoh)

259 So, to put it in perspective: the only race the democrat party was
capable of winning, was one in which the GOP joined them in campaigning
against the Conservative.
That sums it up concisely. Well done.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at November 03, 2009 11:06 PM (554T5)

260 234 God some people are fucked up, how can you be proud of a 1 term failure of an administration
Ah also started Habitat for Humanitah, boy

Posted by: Jimmah Cahtuh at November 03, 2009 11:06 PM (XH/G8)

261 Hoffman only down 49 at INTRADE. he went up about 12 points. he had been down 61-62

i think it is fair to say without Scuttlebutt he would have won.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 11:06 PM (bftbi)

262 If HOFFMAN loses, he'll be back and club Owens like a baby seal in a year.
I hope not.

Let's admit something that nobody really seems to have acknowledged: Hoffman was a very bad candidate in a lot of ways for this district. Not in terms of his politics, but in terms of the fact that he was/is actually something of an outsider to the district, and didn't have anything really intelligent to say about the local issues that voters in that district are concerned with.

Furthermore, he is an aggressively uncharismatic guy. Weird bulgey eyes, a not-too-inspiring speaking demeanor, kinda subdued. His mojo was national, not local. In 2010, assuming that the district isn't contracted entirely due to New York's hemorrhaging of citizens, I hope the NY-23 GOP nominates a better guy.

Posted by: Jeff B. at November 03, 2009 11:06 PM (GhUHn)

263 Hoffman's down by almost 4000 and the new results are coming from Oswego... I don't think he's going to be pull it out now =( I hope he still can somehow.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:07 PM (mFUln)

264 The fat lady has decided her outfit does not match her new shoes and she must change outfits.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 11:07 PM (j+aj1)

265 hoffman's screwed. its cool, NJ is the story.

Posted by: Anti-Harkkonen Freedom Fighter at November 03, 2009 11:07 PM (5r0Tz)

266 The R counties coming in and not big enough for Hoffman, there doesn't seem to be a reasonable path to victory I can find.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 11:07 PM (HAdov)

267 redstate tweeting that it is lost

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 11:08 PM (bftbi)

268 In 2010, assuming that the district isn't contracted entirely due to New York's hemorrhaging of citizens, I hope the NY-23 GOP nominates a better guy.
Yup.

Posted by: flenser at November 03, 2009 11:08 PM (xWnUn)

269 And the goddamn reason is Scozzafava is sucking votes from Hoffman in Oswego... she's up from 5 to 6% of the totals now... goddamn RINO bitch.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:08 PM (mFUln)

270 Why are urban areas so full of fools??

Posted by: TheGarbone at November 03, 2009 11:08 PM (ozU4L)

271 LGF blaming extremist Beck for Hoffman's loss. FYI. First visit there in over 7 months.

Posted by: Derak at November 03, 2009 11:08 PM (48XFq)

272 These jerks have to stop calling Dede Scozzaflava a MODERATE.
Newsflash: scozzaflave is NOT A MODERATE
There

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 11:09 PM (Z/wYm)

273 Hoffman does need a dentist, no matter the outcome though. I thought I was looking at a picture of some Brit or somethin.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:09 PM (cvmTR)

274 Right now, Republicans are projected to knock off seven Democratic incumbent state delegates in Virginia.
Campaign Spot

Posted by: flenser at November 03, 2009 11:09 PM (xWnUn)

275 It'll be too bad if Hoffman loses, but the governorships are more important.

And, this way the RNC will be even more motivated to rain hellfire and damnation down on those 11 GOP county chairs who chose the loser, Scuzzy.

Posted by: Y-not at November 03, 2009 11:09 PM (sey23)

276 Why does LGF give a flaming F who is to blame for NY23? What does he know?

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:10 PM (cvmTR)

277 Hey Truman North, I see you've been around here at night time now. What did you do, bury the wife in the back yard? (Just kidding.) It's great to have you back, at night, where you belong!

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:10 PM (qP2BK)

278 Owens up by 3,500 voted with 66% of the precincts in, per the Saratogian Live vote total thingy. 49% to 45% with 431 of 606 precincts reporting, actually closer to 4,000 for Owens.
I'd like to take this opportunity to wish John Corzine happy funemployment.

Posted by: Dick_Nixon at November 03, 2009 11:10 PM (dt8Pt)

279 CDR M, Hoffman will get FREE dental care very very soon.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:11 PM (MaqIC)

280 In the end "all politics is truly local"

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:11 PM (p302b)

281 272
Why are urban areas so full of fools??

Where's the money coming from?
Obama!
Obama's Stash!
Obama! Obama!

Need you be reminded once again? Pay for play. No real thinkin' goin' on there.

Posted by: Derak at November 03, 2009 11:11 PM (48XFq)

282 Objectively speaking, party labels aside, Owens is better than Scozzafava.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:11 PM (T0NGe)

283 Hey, I am going to bed, wake me up in the morning and I'll show up around 10.
Don't get me up later if Hoffman wins, I am drunk.

Posted by: The Skull at November 03, 2009 11:11 PM (2+9Yx)

284 LGF blaming extremist Beck for Hoffman's loss.

The plunge into total irrelevancy continues unabated.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at November 03, 2009 11:12 PM (554T5)

285 Yeah, a speech without a "groovy" beard. Chia pets are pissed Corzine didn't win. They could've made some money on that chia beard Corzine special election statue they were getting to roll out.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:12 PM (cvmTR)

286 the fatlady pauses to gaze out at the star filled sky...

Posted by: Max Power at November 03, 2009 11:12 PM (q177U)

287 LGF needs to worry about their own shit and Tip Jar. Who the hell cares what they think about republican elections.

Posted by: RecountinNY23 at November 03, 2009 11:12 PM (/mbDE)

288 Oh now this is rich (don't shoot the message-gal)
Allah tweet: Silver lining for the GOP in NY-23: It'll discourage the exceedingly bad idea of a third party movement being pushed by Beck

Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 03, 2009 11:12 PM (QXN+m)

289 Damn, getting Hoffman would have been nice, but maybe it put the fear of God in the GOP establishment. That would be useful. Plus there's my plus-size pride in Christie and my joy that my beloved Old Dominion has shaken off the shackles of Obamaism and that makes it a pretty goddamn good night.

Posted by: joncelli at November 03, 2009 11:12 PM (vPMF5)

290 CDR M, Hoffman will get FREE dental care very very soon.
Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:11 PM (MaqIC)
Yeah, that's really working out well for the Brits. Remember that story a while back where people were pulling their own abcessed teeth out with needle nosed pliers because they couldn't get in to see the dentist?

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:12 PM (qP2BK)

291 Don't get me up later if Hoffman wins, I am drunk.

Posted by: The Skull at November 03, 2009 11:11 PM (2+9Yx)
You never could hold your liquor.

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 11:13 PM (9Wv2j)

292
Is it Wednesday yet? You lgf'ers need to learn that nobody here gives a rat's fuck about what your ex-boyfriend chuck johnson thinks. Besides you, of course.

Get the fuck over it.

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 11:13 PM (Dh+s2)

293 Sure we can blame Scuzzy as she is a total sabotaging bitch, but there were only 4 freaking national implication elections, the RNC should have been all over this from the very beginning.

Nevertheless, NJ makes me extremely happy and the VA race was an ass whoopin up and down the board.

Posted by: Lebowski at November 03, 2009 11:13 PM (DIYmd)

294 A dem just told me in an email that Corzine was saved from a total trouncing by BO. kid you not.

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:14 PM (p302b)

295 Too bad Obama didn't campaign for Owens. With his winning streak lately, Hoffman would have been a shoe in...

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 03, 2009 11:14 PM (QECjC)

296 Don't feel bad about CA-10! The district is gerrymandered Commiecrat. That the R did as well as he did is actually an incredibly *good* sign.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 03, 2009 11:14 PM (IPGTN)

297 Hoffman down by 4073 with with 71% reporting... he needs a major shift in the current trend or he's toast =(

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:14 PM (mFUln)

298 292
CDR M, Hoffman will get FREE dental care very very soon.
Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:11 PM (MaqIC)
Yeah, that's really working out well for the Brits.
Remember that story a while back where people were pulling their own
abcessed teeth out with needle nosed pliers because they couldn't get
in to see the dentist?

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:12 PM (qP2BK)
Did I miss something in the 1900+ page health care bill that included DENTAL too???

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:14 PM (cvmTR)

299 The fat lady hates all the outfits hanging in her closet. But she really loves these shoes.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 11:15 PM (j+aj1)

300 LMAO Christie playing born to run. that's gotta hurt for ol brucie

Posted by: Buckleyfan at November 03, 2009 11:15 PM (DtTM9)

301 I think we're about to get some singing going here

Posted by: Max Power at November 03, 2009 11:15 PM (q177U)

302 Putting out the American flag to go with my McDonnell signs tomorrow ----mainly to piss off the queers across the street

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 11:15 PM (Z/wYm)

303 Brucie loves the cash

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:15 PM (MaqIC)

304 296
A dem just told me in an email that Corzine was saved from a total trouncing by BO. kid you not.


Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:14 PM (p302b)
So do those numbers then count for the jobs saved or created? I'm sure those votes were "paid" for with stimulus cash.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:15 PM (cvmTR)

305 Nah, I'm not hoping for Corzine's unemployment. I'd hire Corzine, and much of the rest of NJ's political class... to make licence plates and to break rocks.
Maybe with a Republican governor something can be done about the corruption in that state.

Posted by: Zimriel at November 03, 2009 11:16 PM (rtzHA)

306 Oh, and I take full responsibilty for Hoffman losing. I think I may have gone overboard on the prayer meter--prayed that Creigh Deeds would lose, prayed that John Corzine would lose, prayed that Owens would lose, and prayed that Teh Yankees lose the world series. I think I might have pushed God over the edge. We'll see tomorrow. I fear that the Phillies lived to die another day. Stupid Phillies, they should have won one more game in Philadelphia. Stupid, stupid Phillies.Anyways, I digress. I profusely apologize for Hoffman's loss.

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:16 PM (qP2BK)

307 wonder about NY 23. Guess they listened to Dede and her onion guy hubby. Surprising that that district would go dem though. Can Hoffman ask them to check everything with a fine toothed comb?

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:16 PM (p302b)

308 302, a cease and desist will be in the mail tomorrow.

Posted by: Scott J. at November 03, 2009 11:16 PM (WMXl8)

309 Obama and ACORN "saved or created" a million votes for Corzine.

Posted by: Gibbs Wednesday Presser Talking Points at November 03, 2009 11:16 PM (cxGtL)

310 Let the blame and victimhood begin!

Posted by: vai2112 at November 03, 2009 11:16 PM (pkOAj)

311 The fat lady has spotted a cute outfit hidden behind her coat.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (j+aj1)

312 I agree that Hoffman probably wasn't the best candidate available. That being said, for an unknown who was willing to step up, I respect and appreciate his efforts. We (Conservatives, not Republicans) need more folks like him to step up. My district in NC went heavy for David Price in 08 against a strong conservative challenger in BJ Lawson...who could have done very well in '10 except that he backed out....unless we can convince him to give it another shot!
BJ LAWSON FOR NC Rep to CONGRESS 2010....tell him to get back in the race!

Posted by: NC Ref at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (6igqT)

313 Ha! I've been so wrapped up in teh national stuff, I have no idea how our elections here in WA are transpiring. (Kind of hard to get too excited when we have all mail in balloting). But NJ and VA--I hadn't felt that good about an election since Bush beat Kerry.

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (qP2BK)

314 Christie and McDonnell have good teeth. That's the key to victory.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (cvmTR)

315 i think you guys are misunderestimating the importance of this loss. And I know owens will lose in 2010, but that is minor. This was a major battle in the ideological struggle for the party.

in 2006 and 2008, the republicans ran "moderates", what is to day it won't happen in many races in 2010. I know there are primaries, but the RNC can favor someone in the primaries and "help" them.

I am happy about NJ and VA on a national level. It is a blow to obama. However I can't say that I am not disappointed.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (bftbi)

316 I guess ya gotta admit that bad chiclets aren't a plus for someone running for office. See a dentist, fer cryin' out loud.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (554T5)

317 The fat lady has spotted a cute outfit hidden behind her coat.
Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (j+aj1)
She didn't see it at first because it was concealed in the folds of her fat.

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:18 PM (qP2BK)

318 MONMOUTH REPRESENT MOF*CKERS

Posted by: MRI at November 03, 2009 11:18 PM (7Rx4w)

319 I guess ya gotta admit that bad chiclets aren't a plus for someone running for office. See a dentist, fer cryin' out loud.
I know, huh? Get some Crest White Strips, at the very least.

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 11:19 PM (9Wv2j)

320 294

Is it Wednesday yet? You lgf'ers need to learn that nobody here
gives a rat's fuck about what your ex-boyfriend chuck johnson thinks.
Besides you, of course.Get the fuck over it.

DUDE! I went over there because some weird LGF leftovers glombing on to us here at AoS were wondering, wondering.

So I had the intestinal fortitude to see what the freak had to say, dude.
Pay attention, Dang. You gotta know who yer friends are before you bash 'em in the head with a shovel. Geez. I thought I posted enough here for you to have a clue. Guess not.

Posted by: Derak at November 03, 2009 11:19 PM (48XFq)

321 Allah tweet: Silver lining for the GOP in NY-23: It'll discourage the exceedingly bad idea of a third party movement being pushed by Beck
Say what you will about Allah, but 3rd parties are usually a joke. The only reason they were not a joke in NY-23 is because the GOP elite didn't have a primary, so here a 3rd party revolt is justified.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 03, 2009 11:19 PM (IPGTN)

322 Was the dress the fat lady saw a blue one with a stain on it?

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:19 PM (cvmTR)

323 I'm sort of glad that this guy seems to have lost. His 'example' was overtly dangerous to the BIG PICTURE goal of taking control of Congress. As has been discussed ad infinitum here by many others.

What SHOULD NOT be done in the future is split the possible Republican vote in marginal districts.
What SHOULD be done is to ensure that the initial choosing process does not choose people who are in actuality more 'progressive' than the candidate offered by the Democrats.
She was an unacceptable candidate ---- no doubt at all about that, and Hoffman was correct in trying to derail her.
This Time.

BUT it's pretty darn clear that fracturing your own potential voting base however marginally is NOT going to be a successful ongoing strategy.
Never has been. Never will be. Ideologues to the contrary.
This 'small' loss is instructive, although the lessons will no doubt not be heeded.. Unless you want Pelosi and Reid to be in their current positions for election cycles to come, some form of 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend' strategy has to be the way forward.

Posted by: Dougf at November 03, 2009 11:20 PM (16GPT)

324 I can't believe it Christy Brinkley won the Governor of New Jersey and played UPTOWN GIRL as the victory song!
She's almost as hot as Sarah.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:20 PM (MaqIC)

325 The fat lady is squeezing into the cute outfit.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 11:20 PM (j+aj1)

326 NY23 may be a loss for us, but the big win is New Jersey.

And let this serve notice to the RNC - STOP BACKING CANDIDATES WHO ARE DEMOCRATS HIDING BEHIND MASKS!


Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 11:21 PM (92zkk)

327
She didn't see it at first because it was concealed in the folds of her fat.

So, Megaton McCain is singing the Anthem in the 23rd tonight?

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 03, 2009 11:21 PM (Dh+s2)

328 Christie and McDonnell have good teeth. That's the key to victory.
Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (cvmTR)
You know who else have good teeth? Paul Ryan, Mark Rubio, and Aaron Shock. Oh, and Sarah Palin! (Unfortunately, Sarah's beautiful choppers couldn't make up for McCain's aesthetically unappealing).

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:22 PM (qP2BK)

329
V is on for me, now. Does that mean I can go to the V-thread?


Posted by: Editor at November 03, 2009 10:59 PM (YX6i/)
--Go for it!

Posted by: logprof at November 03, 2009 11:22 PM (I3Udb)

330 A dem just told me in an email that Corzine was saved from a total trouncing by BO. kid you not.

Let them keep thinking that as long as we can -- which will probably only be until next November.

But hopefully, they'll keep their heads buried in the sand until 2012.

Posted by: Che PIzza at November 03, 2009 11:22 PM (4iIhs)

331 Hey eman, the audience is growing restless. The stage manager is looking around nervously. I think the curtain is about to come up...

Posted by: Max Power at November 03, 2009 11:23 PM (q177U)

332 This was a major battle in the ideological struggle for the party.
Yes. But it's premature to say that one side or another "won". (Assuming Hoffman loses.)
The liberal wing of the GOP did not win tonight.

Posted by: flenser at November 03, 2009 11:23 PM (xWnUn)

333 So was Obama watching V tonight and come to the conclusion that the only way he can sell his Obamacare is to have large balloon ships hover over the major cities of the United States and air his Oneliness 24/7 on the sides of said balloon ships?

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:23 PM (cvmTR)

334 Again if Hoffman loses and Owens wins, we lose. If Hoffman didn't run and Scozzafava won, we lose.
The point has been made. RINO's YOU ARE FINISHED.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:24 PM (MaqIC)

335 I'm sort of glad that this guy seems to have lost. His 'example' was
overtly dangerous to the BIG PICTURE goal of taking control of
Congress. As has been discussed ad infinitum here by many others.



Concerned much? This was the perfect time for this to happen. It's a
special election, so there's another one in a year. The Republicans
chose a horrible candidate, arguably worse than the Dem. This was the perfect time to revolt and give the Party a warning shot.

Posted by: whatever at November 03, 2009 11:24 PM (XIXhw)

336 the locals wanted to talk about local issues, things like the 'roof top highway' and year round navigation of the St. Lawrence Seaway. Hoffman and his surrogates really didn't address that. It may rankle the independent streak in this area.
These localissues are often very important to swing voters in rural districts. I read earlier that Hoffman's inability to address such regional issues wasone reason the local Republican officials gave the endorsement to Scozafavva. Too bad he didn't learn from his performance with the county chairmen and bone up on the local stuff. .

Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at November 03, 2009 11:24 PM (1kwr2)

337 Owens up by 3,500 voted with 66% of the precincts in, per the
Saratogian Live vote total thingy. 49% to 45% with 431 of 606 precincts
reporting, actually closer to 4,000 for Owens.

You know who this benefits? That's right: Mitt Romney.

Posted by: physics geek at November 03, 2009 11:25 PM (2tjC2)

338 The worst thing about NY-23 is that Obamacare may still be alive tomorrow morning. A trifecta might have killed it.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at November 03, 2009 11:25 PM (cxGtL)

339 I want to know why Owen's lead slowly creeps up while the number of precincts reporting stays the same, but each time the number of reported precincts is updated, Hoffman suddenly cuts into Owens' lead by a few hundred votes. Seems odd to me.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:25 PM (mFUln)

340 I've been thinking about these three-way...races and they always benefit Democrats. We will find out soon whether the one in NJ was engineered, but since Democrats almost always campaign on deceit, on the bait-and-switch, having the distraction of three people in the race and the horserace drama distracts people from the issues.

Certainly Owens benefitted from that. Here was a moderatish Democrat with a military background (Emanuel's fingers are in this) and didn't let himself get caught up in the fat lady's drama.

It's disturbing that Hoffman didn't do better (whether he ends up ekeing this out or not) but when so many Republicans eagerly bolt from the Republican nominee to a charisma-challenged person who technically lives outside of the district, something is seriously wrong.

As for NY-23, I think it will be a district for 2010, the realignment will happen in time for the 2012 elections. Still, I don't think Owens will do well unless he's a pretend-Republican.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:25 PM (T0NGe)

341 330
Christie and McDonnell have good teeth. That's the key to victory.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:17 PM (cvmTR)
You know who else have good teeth? Paul Ryan, Mark
Rubio, and Aaron Shock. Oh, and Sarah Palin! (Unfortunately, Sarah's
beautiful choppers couldn't make up for McCain's aesthetically
unappealing).

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:22 PM (qP2BK)
Rubio is the man in FL. I can't fucking stand Crist. I throw up a little every time I hear that SOB air ads on the radio (and there are a lot of them for being a year out). Someone is getting nervous down here.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:25 PM (cvmTR)

342 LMAO Christie playing born to run. that's gotta hurt for ol brucie
Posted by: Buckleyfan at November 03, 2009 11:15 PM (DtTM9)
Bruce's lawyers will be issuing a stop and deisist order in 5....4....3...2...1...

Posted by: runningrn at November 03, 2009 11:25 PM (qP2BK)

343 flensr.....great minds brother.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:25 PM (MaqIC)

344 I'm sort of glad that this guy seems to have lost. His 'example' was overtly dangerous to the BIG PICTURE goal of taking control of Congress.
Ah, fuck off, you dipstick.
If "taking control of Congress" is your only goal in life then join the Dems. Presto, your side will have "control of Congress".

Posted by: flenser at November 03, 2009 11:26 PM (xWnUn)

345 Hey runningrn, was it you that knew the history on why Wash. St is all mail ballot?
This sucks, by the way. I don't remember voting on this process. I woke up one day and it was so.

I walked my ballot down to the "official" box at the library. The mailman can't deliver the mail properly--I get all the neighbors stuff routinely. How can I trust the ballot ever gets properly delivered when 1. HE'S A UNION GUY, GOVT TYPE and 2) he knows I get stuff from the RNC?

This is a bad set up. Ripe for tampering.

Posted by: Derak at November 03, 2009 11:26 PM (48XFq)

346 I read earlier that Hoffman's inability to address such regional issues
wasone reason the local Republican officials gave the endorsement to
Scozafavva.

BS. There were 7 other candidates to nominate.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:26 PM (T0NGe)

347 Was Owens Army? If so, he might've gotten a little lovin' from the 10th Mountain Division.

Posted by: CDR M at November 03, 2009 11:27 PM (cvmTR)

348 "The worst thing about NY-23 is that Obamacare may still be alive tomorrow morning. A trifecta might have killed it."

VA is in the backyard of the washington elite. That state will scare them. Everything else is for political fanboys.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 11:27 PM (HAdov)

349 Looks like they have impounded Fulton County NY's voting machines....had to vote paper...no one to count the votes tonight.

Posted by: Windsor at November 03, 2009 11:28 PM (5+sh2)

350 Owens up by 3,500 voted with 66% of the precincts in, per the Saratogian Live vote total thingy. 49% to 45% with 431 of 606 precincts reporting, actually closer to 4,000 for Owens. You know who this benefits? That's right: Mitt Romney.
Oh, I so agree! I think that this is a harbinger to come of a mormon in The Whitehouse. I heart Mitt! Sigh! He's so dreamy, and his hair...and those eyes...and his hands...

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at November 03, 2009 11:28 PM (qP2BK)

351 Why the hell is Christie giving a speech like he's still running?
You won fool.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 11:28 PM (MTcoh)

352 Heh
NBC's "The Biggest Loser" is at the White House tonight. This is not a joke.about 2 hours ago from web


jaketapper

Posted by: robtr at November 03, 2009 11:28 PM (fwSHf)

353 VA is in the backyard of the washington elite. That state will scare them. Everything else is for political fanboys.

And NJ is much "closer" to NYC than NY-23.

Owens was USAF.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:29 PM (T0NGe)

354 Why the hell is Christie giving a speech like he's still running?You won fool.
Given the entrenched Mobstercrat power structure, Christie may need to be in permanent campaign mode.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 03, 2009 11:29 PM (IPGTN)

355 Christie just said that New Jersey needed to make New Jersey AFFORDABLE again.
He didn't say HOPE and CHANGE. He said TAXES were too high and SPENDING was out of control.
Conservative thoughts

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:29 PM (MaqIC)

356 And yeah - politics is local. Here's what NY-23 voters count as local issues: "the 'roof top highway' and year round navigation of the St. Lawrence Seaway. Hoffman and his surrogates really didn't address that. It may rankle the independent streak in this area."
Yeah, I see wheremaintaining the St. Lawrence is a federal issue not involving pork(international, even), and Hoffman should have been up to speed on that.
If Hoffman wasn't the most-informed candidate, then it should have been up to his aides to help him. Unfortunately finding decent help for non-executive candidates, like prospective Representatives,is supposed to bethe job of the Republican Party which, in this case, invested inthat fraud Scuzzy.
And Palin and Thompson should learn a few things about how to endorse candidates as well.

Posted by: Zimriel at November 03, 2009 11:29 PM (rtzHA)

357 BUT it's pretty darn clear that fracturing your own potential voting base however marginally is NOT going to be a successful ongoing strategy.
Then do something useful for a change and write that message in letters of fire over RNC HQ. They seem compelled to fracture their voting base every chance they get.

Posted by: flenser at November 03, 2009 11:29 PM (xWnUn)

358 333, yeah but some folks in Cooperstown brew some great beer.
Trying the 2nd product I've ever had from the Ommegang brewery. It's as awesome as the first was.

Posted by: Scott J. at November 03, 2009 11:30 PM (WMXl8)

359 I think Hoffman lost cause they were able to say that outsiders and party bosses were trying to take over their little community so they voted for Owens since he is a local guy and even Dede supported him against Hoffman, the interloper. Plus don't underestimate the fact that the hubby is a onion guy and don't underestimate the fact that people are confused and fearful. They have seen how badly the NY legislature behaved they have seen how badly the DC guys/gals are behaving and they are not sure how to go. Plus since BO took the republican out to put him in the administration you don't actually think BO would lose this do you? Makes you wonder why they considered this so important though.

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:30 PM (p302b)

360 354
Why the hell is Christie giving a speech like he's still running?
You won fool.


Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 11:28 PM (MTcoh)
You don't know NJ. Just because he'll be governor, doesn't mean he's won anything.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:30 PM (T0NGe)

361 353 LOL. It does show that Mitt staying away from this one, and helping other candidates who won, e.g., VA, and NJ, wasn't stupid. Still, Palin comes out of this looking pretty good.

Posted by: ParisParamus at November 03, 2009 11:31 PM (PzoDK)

362 I don't know about saying that Virginia and NJ are somehow more important than NY-23, I mean hopefully over the long-term they will be, but the actual conservative based poured a lot of effort and heart into Hoffman and I hope that his loss won't discourage some of them, or alternately 'radicalize' - for lack of a better term - even more, to the point where we see more split races won by Dems next year that they'd have no business winning otherwise. I want Democrats out of office. Whoever replaces them doesn't much matter to me, Republican, Conservative, Libertarian, whatever, but if this divide really does end up costing Hoffman victory tonight and especially costs some victories in 2010, I for one will not be happy with the "conservatives" whose shortsighted pique gives more power to the One at this critical juncture. We need a popular conservative front and figure out our own internecine problems later, after we've ended the threat of the Obama-Reid-Pelosi Axis.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:31 PM (mFUln)

363 I'm glad to see Owens was USAF. Scozzafava CLEARLY has no principles or personal character. Having an (R) next to her bloated picture did not make her a better choice than Owens. Having said that Hoffman is a better candidate.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:31 PM (MaqIC)

364 Hey runningrn, was it you that knew the history on why Wash. St is all mail ballot? This sucks, by the way. I don't remember voting on this process. I woke up one day and it was so.I walked my ballot down to the "official" box at the library. The mailman can't deliver the mail properly--I get all the neighbors stuff routinely. How can I trust the ballot ever gets properly delivered when 1. HE'S A UNION GUY, GOVT TYPE and 2) he knows I get stuff from the RNC? This is a bad set up. Ripe for tampering.
Yup, it sucks. I live in the People's Republic of Kirkland. In the local elections, the only issue I really cared about was whether or not to raise our utility tax (which the pros kept saying "It's just 6 dollars a month, not even the cost of 2 lattes). The rest of the city council and all didn't really matter because all the candidates were Democrats. (Although, I made sure to vote against the nutjob who's been arrested for assault, owes the city all kinds of money in fines, etc). Then I got a frantic letter from the mayor who was decrying 3 of the candidates because they were endorsed by The Master Homebuilders Assoc. and therefore had ties to big business. All of a sudden, I couldn't blacken in the ovals by their names fast enough. At least you could walk to your ballot drop off place. Our closest one was in Bellevue. It is funny about mailmen. The one day I went to get the mail as the truck pulled up and the guy (a sub) was listening to Michael Medved. So you never know (Although Michael Medved put the "S" in squish.) Still, I was shocked, and said "Is that Michael Medved?" And I gave him a thumbs up (the only time I would do such a thing!) I really can't stand him as he thinks he's smarter than everyone and was so excited when McCain became "the guy."

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at November 03, 2009 11:34 PM (qP2BK)

365 NY - 23 was an anomaly. A peculiar election where the Republican candidate was chosen in the back of a pizza joint by people whose critera for a nominee wasthe most liberal person possible who could still say they were Republican without giggling. Then an actualRepublican joined the ticket (but listed as conservative, not Republican on the ballot), and then thesorry assed official "Republican" turns around and tells people to vote for the Democrat. I don't think this is a bellweather for anything other than a reinforced notion that RINOs of her lot are as useless as tits on a bull.
Now, we just elected a pro-life conservative as Governor of New Jersey, and the Republican candidate in VA won by about twenty points. That is the real story of the night.

Posted by: Reggie1971 at November 03, 2009 11:35 PM (OyaTi)

366 I wonder how military ballots (Fort Drum) might figure in NY-23 -- i.e., are they already counted, will they even *be* counted, etc...

It's in Jefferson County, which is pretty much all in. But "all in" might not include absentees.

Posted by: pbrown at November 03, 2009 11:35 PM (rTGYp)

367 Beck and Rush should not have gotten involved in this. It was read wrong. Makes you wonder why the prez considered this little district to be so important that he sent joe biden there. That is the true question.

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:36 PM (p302b)

368 chaos. 2 thoughts. New Jersey and Virginia both have large populations, both are traditionally Democrat and both had OPIE fly his UNICORN ONE to the state to campaign.
Both are 2 percent of the nations Governors.
NY23 is emblematic of OLD SCHOOL COUNTRY CLUB GOP CRAP.
Hoffman has been in the mix for a month. His party is the CONSERVATIVE PARTY. The Conservative Party candidate has 9 times the votes as the RINO or FAKE REPUBLICAN.
We took out our trash.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:36 PM (MaqIC)

369 Posted by: Reggie1971 at November 03, 2009 11:35 PM (OyaTi)

but not to the WH crowd. Why was a little election in Upstate Ny so important to them?

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:38 PM (p302b)

370 I know this is an off year election but you would think with this much hype turnout would be large. Doesn't this turnout seem kind of low in NU23?

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 11:38 PM (MTcoh)

371 Yeah well gus, fuck. Oswego almost all in and Owens is up by 4200 votes. Unless some crazy miracle happens and Hoffman blasts Owens out of the water in St. Lawrence and the absentee ballots, I hate to say it but say hello to Congressman Owens. God dammit.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:39 PM (mFUln)

372 Curious. Sending Joe Biden ANYWHERE indicates how SMALL the issue is to OBAMA.
Biden is Opies...GO TO CLOWN on Afghanistan policy.
How's that workin' out? 10 weeks and the death toll is rising. Yet no decision for weeks to come.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:39 PM (MaqIC)

373 Makes you wonder why the prez considered this little district to be so important that he sent joe biden there.
You think that sending Biden means they took the race very seriously and treated it as crucial?

Posted by: flenser at November 03, 2009 11:39 PM (xWnUn)

374 RECOUNT IN NY 23 starting tomorrow.

Good Night.

Posted by: RecountinNY23 at November 03, 2009 11:40 PM (/mbDE)

375 NY 23 has some votes still to come in. There's one whole county that's very Republican who have impounded their machines then will hand deliver the votes in the AM. A few others are like that too. If he does win it, it'll be a squeeeee-ker.

Posted by: pleased2bme at November 03, 2009 11:40 PM (62ta6)

376 Chaos, I agree with your sentiment, but would you have been happy with Scozzafava?? Hoffman's inclusion has sent a message. Owens wil not last.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:41 PM (MaqIC)

377 ok, hugh/aka runningrn. did you guys have the "envision Seattle" on the ballot over there? They ran it here, talk about an bottum up run for Kyoto protocol. Heard it was on the ballot in Seattle, Spokane and Portland.
Job killer, city killer. Half of Spokane will relocate to North Idaho should it pass. Gosh I hope it fails. Since there is no such thing as "polls closing, x% of precincts reporting" I don't know how they plan on reporting progress on this vote.

Posted by: Derak at November 03, 2009 11:41 PM (COTx2)

378 There is a huge state university in Oswego, the dems must have really gotten out that vote. It's all libs.

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:42 PM (p302b)

379 Having an (R) next to her bloated picture did not make her a better choice than Owens.

Yeah, Owens is clearly a bait-and-switch. He'll be an ultra-lib in DC, but look for him to make one high-profile "maverick" vote to try to get re-elected.

I think that all sides of the Republican party can learn from this:
(1) The GOP bosses cannot go around nominating just anybody. The base is vital.
(2) Conservatives can't go it alone without considering the general electorate (charisma) or the natural advantages of the party.
(3) If Sarah's going to be relevant, she has to do more than Facebook. She will have to stump in 2010, especially for conservatives in right-of-center districts but are short on charisma.
(4) We have to keep fighting. I think a clean sweep would have panicked the Dems and puffed us up too much. We have to run from behind. We have to fight and claw for every vote. I would have rather had the NY23 win, but I'll take a loss in a one-year Congressional seat in an Obama-voting district in the midst of a party revolt in exchange for 2 governor's seats and a whole raft of Virginia wins any day.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:42 PM (T0NGe)

380 Seriously , if Hoffman loses it sucks.
But if Hoffman hadn't run, NY 23 would have had a choice DUMB or DUMBER.
The fucking point has been made.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:43 PM (MaqIC)

381 We need a popular conservative front and figure out our own internecine problems later, after we've ended the threat of the Obama-Reid-Pelosi Axis.
This was my attitude from 1994-2008. And it got us where, exactly?
I refuse to choose a slow slide over a spint into statism.

Posted by: Scott J. at November 03, 2009 11:43 PM (WMXl8)

382 Biden was sent to NY-23 because Barry knew VA and NJ were toast.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 11:43 PM (j+aj1)

383 Fulton County is showing 20 0f 24 precincts in but the vote count is very low. Based on past elections there has to be at least 10,000 votes there still to be counted and it runs heavily republican. It won't be counted till tomorrow.
If the margin can be cut down a bit by the end of the night then Hoffman still has a shot.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 11:45 PM (MTcoh)

384 Bloomberg squeaked by and only a million people voted ( per friend in email ) and apparently the incumbents in Westchester and Nassaau counties in NY are having a tough time.

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:45 PM (p302b)

385 Amish Dude, good post.Sarah is doing just fine. She speaks and LIBTARDS shit their pants.
Newt Gingrich GOT SCHOOLED by Governor Palin.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:46 PM (MaqIC)

386 "Chaos, I agree with your sentiment, but would you have been happy with Scozzafava?? Hoffman's inclusion has sent a message. Owens wil not last."

Oh absolutely not I wouldn't have been happy with Scozzafava, chances are if she'd won she'd never cast a meaningful vote until election next year where she'd be replaced right quick, but still there are obviously factors in play particularly seeing how a 3-for-3 sweep in the East would really have helped shape the media narrative.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:47 PM (mFUln)

387 Actually if Owens wins his hands are pretty much tied. With Dede's votes it's clear he would have lost and will in 2010. Especially if the R's pick a more charismatic candidate that conservative. He has 2 choices. Give up any shot of winning and vite with the liberals in his party or buck them totally and shoot for a win.

I think he loses no matter which he chooses.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 11:47 PM (MTcoh)

388 372
Why was NY - 23 important to the White House? It was was of the few offices contested tonight. The potential of any victory is of value to them.
This is a great night for Republicans. Please don't fixate on the NY race. The thing was (excuse me)fucked up from the beginning. If anything, this should be a lesson to the GOP hierarchy not toget behindleft wing riff raff RINOs.

Posted by: Reggie1971 at November 03, 2009 11:48 PM (OyaTi)

389 You think that sending Biden means they took the race very seriously and treated it as crucial?

Posted by: flenser at November 03, 2009 11:39 PM (xWnUn)
What it means is that their focus groups said that Obama going would be a net loss. Certainly that jibes with the notion that the voters were turned off by "interlopers". Biden would go almost unnoticed except by the base and a nice newspaper article saying how important Owens is. With Obama, it's a circus, with Biden it's an endorsement.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:48 PM (T0NGe)

390 CA-10 w/27.5% in:

Garamendi (Dem) 56.1% - Harmer (Rep) 39.5%

Posted by: Steph at November 03, 2009 11:48 PM (/CtkQ)

391 Is it just me or have some of you noticed that BOB BECKEL's nice guy, act is getting old.
Beckel tries to start every debate with a "I'm a nice funny guy who justg disagrees with you quip" He's a LIBTARD hack and he'd cut off you balls to win for the Marx Party, I see through him, despite his WIDE EXPANSIVE GIRTH.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:49 PM (MaqIC)

392
217 Yep, my sound on Fox is FUBAR too.
Posted by: Countrysquire at November 03, 2009 10:57 PM (PpggK)

Called Directtv to complain because mysteriously Fox is the only channel that this is happening to, they said it was Fox's fault. Calling bs on that explanation. I laughed when the directtv girl told me Fox was a local channel, I explained that, why yes it is, but it is also a major cable news network, she was confused. I guess the white house got to rupert...

Posted by: lou at November 03, 2009 11:53 PM (UbWbu)

393 Word up Gus!

Posted by: NC Ref at November 03, 2009 11:53 PM (6igqT)

394 Newt Gingrich GOT SCHOOLED by Governor Palin.

If there's anything that comes of this, I hope it's that Newt is finally buried among his books and videos in the political graveyard.

Palin is doing OK, but she has to decide if she's going to be a force or not. As a commenter, she's doing fine, but if she wants to be president or even a kingmaker, she has to get out there.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 11:53 PM (T0NGe)

395 391, I don't think that's really it. I think it's important to the White House because they appointed the republican rep from that district to Sec. of the Army and they wouldn't have done that unless they were fairly confidant they could flip the district.

Posted by: LikeATimeBomb at November 03, 2009 11:54 PM (dwwPD)

396 If hoffman wins or loses, this proves we do, in fact, need to go into elections united, in case anyone doubted that.

Anyone's who's pushing spoiler third candidates is just basically pushing for Obama.

I don't mean that Hoffman was a spoiler -- in fact, Scozzer was. But this is the impact of 5% on an election. We generally do not have such a big fraction of the vote to spare.

If we pull it out tonight it will be a miracle.

Posted by: ace at November 03, 2009 11:55 PM (v6Zdl)

397 217 Yep, my sound on Fox is FUBAR too.
Posted by: Countrysquire at November 03, 2009 10:57 PM (PpggK)
Just switched to the non-HD feed. Fixed the problem. Strangely, no other HD feeds seem to have been affected. Hmmm.......

Posted by: NC Ref at November 03, 2009 11:55 PM (6igqT)

398 "CA-10 w/27.5% in: Garamendi (Dem) 56.1% - Harmer (Rep) 39.5%"

Normally this district is like 70/30. This is actually good news.

I am curious which kook 3rd parties are taking 4.4% of the vote. Probably the Watermelon ("Green") Party or the "Peace and Freedom" (sic) Party.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 03, 2009 11:55 PM (IPGTN)

399 chaos, on that point, I must vocierously disagree.
Obama hung with Frank Marshall Davis.
He used drugs.
He took his children to Jeremiah Wrights church.
He stood FOR INFANTICIDE.

the MEDIA is not at issue here. I think you're an intelligent Conservative, BUT, I've come to learn that THE MSM will carry Opie's WATER until they see it costing them as individuals.
They will spin ANYTHING.
You and I are astute. Who the FUCK watches the MSM anymore?
the converted LIBTARD CHOIR. It's an echo chamber.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:55 PM (MaqIC)

400 RS McCain quotes Hoffman spokesman making an interesting point: "You don't see the Owens people jumping for joy. . . . They know the same thing we know" - namely the uncertainty of unreported precincts and uncounted absentee ballots.

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 11:56 PM (9Wv2j)

401 Nuts! Fox just called it for Owens.

Posted by: Mr. Right at November 03, 2009 11:56 PM (vE11g)

402 Fox calls it for Owens and they are probably right but when all is said and done I would not be surprised if the margin is less than 1000 votes.

Posted by: Rocks at November 03, 2009 11:57 PM (MTcoh)

403 Amish Dude. We are discussing Gov Palin. Without her doing any heavy lifting.
If she FARTS it gets noticed.She is coming here to Milwaukee for a WISCONSIN RIGHT TO LIFE event this week.
Patience my friend.

Posted by: gus at November 03, 2009 11:57 PM (MaqIC)

404 402, Barry didn't just hang with FMD, that's his biological father!

Posted by: Larry Sinclair at November 03, 2009 11:57 PM (DtTM9)

405 "This was my attitude from 1994-2008. And it got us where, exactly?

I refuse to choose a slow slide over a spint into statism."

I wasn't able to vote until 2006, so unfortunately I'm going to have to ask you where all of YOU were in 2000 and 2002 and 2004 when you elected and re-elected borrow-and-spend Republicans that you're now so mad at for being in the Party. I didn't elect them, you did. I think I have a clear sense of priorities, which is beat Obama-Pelosi-Reid first and figure it out from there, instead of squabbling over "who we are" or some such nonsense while those three rack up debts that will significantly threaten the good future of myself and any potential children. There are plenty of 20-somethings like me who are not happy one bit about what the older generations have done and are doing, and if our futures keep getting mortgaged by the likes of TARP, Porkulus, cap-and-tax and ObamaCare, sooner or later we'll tell the old folks to get the hell out of the way before we push them out and try to figure out what best needs doing without the old farts who got us and our futures into this mess trying to tell us what to do.

Posted by: chaos at November 03, 2009 11:58 PM (mFUln)

406 but didn't someone say Rove said Hoffman, based on the exit polls, had it covered? So what went wrong? Did people lie to the pollsters or are the republican "bosses" up there really dems?

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:59 PM (p302b)

407 If hoffman wins or loses, this proves we do, in fact, need to go into elections united, in case anyone doubted that.



Anyone's who's pushing spoiler third candidates is just basically pushing for Obama.



I don't mean that Hoffman was a spoiler -- in fact, Scozzer was. But
this is the impact of 5% on an election. We generally do not have such
a big fraction of the vote to spare.



If we pull it out tonight it will be a miracle.

Posted by: ace at November 03, 2009 11:55 PM (v6Zdl)

With honest primaries where everyone gets there shot that will happen.the National and State parties need to hold their cash for the election and accept what the primaries give them though.

Posted by: Rocks at November 04, 2009 12:00 AM (MTcoh)

408 >If she FARTS it gets noticed.

i'd buy THAT for a dollar.

Posted by: palinperv at November 04, 2009 12:00 AM (DtTM9)

409 I live in Fairfield County CT (and formally Westchester County, NY), there are a number of Incumbent Democratic Mayors, town supervisors, and county executives going down tonight. e.g. (1) Long time Westchester NY Exec Spano going down big, Stamford CT Mayoral office going Republican for first time since I can remember, Nassau County Long Island Democratic County Exec Suozzi is tied with Republican with 93% of vote in. Many Westchester towns Democratic mayors losing also.
A Lot of focus on top three races, but there are many other republicans winning.

Posted by: JoeRiverside at November 04, 2009 12:00 AM (Q8mTD)

410 Curmudgeon: Cloward (Grn) 1.98% - Denham (AI) 1.04% - McIlroy (P&F) 1.32%+

What are the AI & P&F parties?

Posted by: Steph at November 04, 2009 12:01 AM (/CtkQ)

411 but didn't someone say Rove said Hoffman, based on
the exit polls, had it covered? So what went wrong? Did people lie to
the pollsters or are the republican "bosses" up there really dems?

Posted by: curious at November 03, 2009 11:59 PM (p302b)

The early voting killed Hoffman which probably accounts for Dede's votes.The exit polls can't really allow for that. It's will end up a lot closer than it is now for sure.

Posted by: Rocks at November 04, 2009 12:02 AM (MTcoh)

412


Posted by: JoeRiverside at November 04, 2009 12:00 AM (Q8mTD)
Getting all kinds of emails. that guy in nassau was considered a shoe in and he planned to run for governor. Spano they tell me was on the conservative line????

Posted by: curious at November 04, 2009 12:03 AM (p302b)

413 God bless you CHAOS, you are one of the good guys.
Let me tell you what I've found in YOU in the several times that we've posted on this board.
You have morals, principles, character and honour.
You do not compromise your CORE values for Political expediency or short term gain.
John McCain is not you.Bob Dole is not you. Newt Gingrich is not you. Sarah Palin......is you.
God bless friend.

Posted by: gus at November 04, 2009 12:03 AM (MaqIC)

414 ok, hugh/aka runningrn. did you guys have the "envision Seattle" on the ballot over there? They ran it here, talk about an bottum up run for Kyoto protocol. Heard it was on the ballot in Seattle, Spokane and Portland. Job killer, city killer. Half of Spokane will relocate to North Idaho should it pass. Gosh I hope it fails. Since there is no such thing as "polls closing, x% of precincts reporting" I don't know how they plan on reporting progress on this vote.
Hmm, maybe it was on the Seattle ballot, we didn't have it on the Kirkland ballot. I didn't even know about it. Yeah, I hate everything about our electoral process (the top two candidate thing in the primaries, the stupid voting process). It all sucks, and yeah, that "envision Seattle" thing sounds like a bunch of crap. Seattle is so stupid, they are always voting themselves tax increases for stupid stuff like the monorail (that finally got yanked), refurbishing the Pike Place Market, and now they are dicking around with a stupid tunnel idea to replace The Viaduct.

Posted by: runningrn at November 04, 2009 12:05 AM (qP2BK)

415 There are plenty of 20-somethings like me who are not happy one bit
about what the older generations have done and are doing, and if our
futures keep getting mortgaged by the likes of TARP, Porkulus,
cap-and-tax and ObamaCare, sooner or later we'll tell the old folks to
get the hell out of the way before we push them out and try to figure
out what best needs doing without the old farts who got us and our
futures into this mess trying to tell us what to do.

Careful there, little mister. Yer kinda soundin' like you actually want those death panels. Bad slippery slope, Mr. Meeeee mmee gimmee. We are fighting just as hard as you are, and truth be told, it is the 60's hippies, think Bill Ayers, think your college professors, that got us here.
Don't be paintin' with no broad brush, pumpkin. Bad things happen that way.

Posted by: Derak at November 04, 2009 12:06 AM (COTx2)

416 Per RSM: With many thousands of military absentee ballots and key precincts not reporting, the Hoffman campaign is ready for a long night...As Ryan told me shortly after 11 p.m., "You don't see the Owens people jumping for joy. . . . They know the same thing we know" -- namely the uncertainty of unreported precincts and uncounted absentee ballots.

Posted by: Steph at November 04, 2009 12:07 AM (/CtkQ)

417 Well god bless you too gus and thanks much for the compliments.

And I agree entirely as to your assessment of Mrs. Palin... no matter how bad her numbers appear nationally, she seems to be running a pretty adept campaign at setting up the groundwork for 2012... she's getting voters to LIKE her personally, which a lot of them already do, and that's half the battle (or more) at convincing them that you'd be a good president as well.

Posted by: chaos at November 04, 2009 12:08 AM (mFUln)

418 Counterspin: Hoffman lost because he's an open borders squish:
"Where do you stand on illegal immigration? There is no
question that our immigration policies are flawed. The answer, though,
is not to put up a wall and stop all immigration. The answer is to
create an easier path for immigrants to enter the United States and
to work here while at the same time getting tough on illegal
immigrants who commit crimes."

WHY NOT???

Posted by: schizoid at November 04, 2009 12:09 AM (gZCV8)

419 Yeah everybody who came before our IPOD CELL PHONE TEXTING VIDEO GAME self absorbed NON-DRAFT, ANTI-MILITARY SOFT generation or 2, caused all kinds of TERRIBLE CRAP for the poor LAD, and LASSIES.

Cry me a fucking river.

Posted by: gus at November 04, 2009 12:09 AM (MaqIC)

420 Chaos, you are a friend. Class, passion and brains.
Keep in touch.

Posted by: gus at November 04, 2009 12:11 AM (MaqIC)

421 Curmudgeon: Cloward (Grn) 1.98% - Denham (AI) 1.04% - McIlroy (PF) 1.32%+ What are the AI PF parties?
PF = "Peace and Freedom" (sic) Party. Established in the late 1960's. Total Commie Front.
AI = American Independent Party. Actually cool in a John Birchy kill-the-commies way, but a wasted vote and effort that should go to the Republicans. A chunk of their vote comes from people who are not John Birchers, but who see the name "independent" and like to see themselves like that.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 04, 2009 12:12 AM (IPGTN)

422 "Careful there, little mister. Yer kinda soundin' like you actually want those death panels. Bad slippery slope, Mr. Meeeee mmee gimmee. We are fighting just as hard as you are, and truth be told, it is the 60's hippies, think Bill Ayers, think your college professors, that got us here.
Don't be paintin' with no broad brush, pumpkin. Bad things happen that way."

I'm sounding like the young generation has always sounded when they start to feel like they really can make a difference. If you old folks =) can't get job the done, sooner or later we're going to tell you to get out of the way or push you out of the way, and take a crack at this whole governing thing ourselves. That's just the way life goes. And the way things are going now, we're much less likely to have much of an ear for any kind of old guard or something like that. I love the GOP probably because I've spent so much time reading about Lincoln and the war and things like that, but if they can't do it, fine, try this newly-born and burgeoning conservative renaissance which undoubtedly is run mostly by men and women in youngish middle age to late middle age. If they don't work, we'll be the ones who'll be youngish middle age by then and we'll be wanting our turn to try our shot at politics and with the rather swift rises and falls of personalities and political organizations attached to them these days, that shot may come sooner than some think.

Posted by: chaos at November 04, 2009 12:13 AM (mFUln)

423 Hoffman lost because the Republican Party once again has shown that they cannot effectively run local races that aren't gerrymandered to a insane R advantage. Its that simple, it's not moderate vs Conservative it's that they never can find the right candidate for the district and they do not give proper resources to the candidate so the candidate can win.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 04, 2009 12:13 AM (HAdov)

424
419 Per RSM: With many thousands of military absentee ballots and key precincts not reporting, the Hoffman campaign is ready for a long night...As Ryan told me shortly after 11 p.m., "You don't see the Owens people jumping for joy. . . . They know the same thing we know" -- namely the uncertainty of unreported precincts and uncounted absentee ballots.
Posted by: Steph at November 04, 2009 12:07 AM (/CtkQ)

I think the rnc should sue her, dede, to get the money back. Alas, they won't as they are the rinos. chrissy matthews spewing that the republicans have blown it by supporting Hoffman, butI think he sees the writing on the wall. No more fn rinos. Hell no!!! I would rather lose a seat then to have another faux conservative!!!!! they never vote with us, so might as well be the liberals, at least we know how they will vote. Sick of this rino bullshit.

Posted by: lou at November 04, 2009 12:14 AM (UbWbu)

425 Any R votes for Scozzafava on early or absenteeballots would be challengeable by the party, if you wanted to go that route. Might get within a margin, where the 10th Mtn's absentee count would swing it. Not pretty to watch. How bad you want it?I know what a Dem would do.

Posted by: comatus at November 04, 2009 12:14 AM (/VEEI)

426 I saw Frank Luntz on FOX tonight, with a group in Virginia. One black dude on the TEST PANEL couldn't keep his mouth shut when others were speaking.
But what struck me was after all of the questions were asked and one DITZY white BROAD raised her hand in favor of every LIBTARD NONSENSICAL issue, she said her concern was the HEALTH CARE REFORM ISSUE.
Because.........
PEOPLE ARE DYING.

Some LIBTARDS are that vaccuous.
People ARE NOT dying in America because they have no INSURANCE.
Poor people are served.
Some LIBTARDS are dumber than TAMPAX.

Posted by: gus at November 04, 2009 12:15 AM (MaqIC)

427 Hoffman concedes.
http://tiny.cc/QKcHt

Posted by: davidt at November 04, 2009 12:15 AM (Gk6j6)

428 AI Candidate is Jerry Denham, and he's a John Birch Society guy. He and the late John Katz used to host a radio show called "One Man's View of Americanism" around here.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 04, 2009 12:16 AM (IPGTN)

429 I agree, I never ever ever want to hear again how I have to go along and support the R, even if I disagree with his/her politics. Everytime a RINO loses or is going to lose they pull a party switch.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 04, 2009 12:17 AM (HAdov)

430 432 I agree, I never ever ever want to hear again how I have to go along and support the R, even if I disagree with his/her politics. Everytime a RINO loses or is going to lose they pull a party switch.
Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 04, 2009 12:17 AM (HAdov)

Really, why have we let the dems/mediaassholestell us how to run our party. They can mind their own f'n business. They don't get to decide who we support anymore. Sick of that bs. No more asshole dems input, done with that!!...

Posted by: lou at November 04, 2009 12:25 AM (UbWbu)

431 Chaos, appreciate your enthusiasm. Please read about the cultural revolution in China and what they did to their parents/grandparents.
Bill Ayers is ready to sacrifice 25 million, an entire generation, to get what he wants. He is implementing it today, via Obama and his minions, as we speak. So you may want to direct your wrath properly.

Your desire to forcibly shove older generations aside has no place in conservative politics. Chill, dude. And be certain your "elders", such as Ms. Palin, who you (and I, incidentally) appear to revere, understand such threats and are thoroughly prepared to defend themselves.

Posted by: Derak at November 04, 2009 12:34 AM (lLxSN)

432 I've read quite a bit about the Cultural Revolution, and what I mean is, if the older politicians fail to deliver, we'll... turn you into Newts.

Newt Gingriches, that is.

Posted by: chaos at November 04, 2009 12:36 AM (mFUln)

433 The rapid last minute changes in this race are a good argument for doing away with early voting and most absentee voting. If we can communicate instantly with our troops in the field why can't they have a polling place at their base on election day with results counted and reported when their state's polls close? That would eliminate their potential disenfranchisement by parties that shall not be named but begin with a "D". For other people, make a better arrangement than exists now. Maybe allow a second choice to be selected in case the first choice withdraws. Maybe Internet voting for special cases. No one could have predicted this CF, but early voting and absentees are probably the reason Scuzzy is getting more votes than the difference between Owens and Hoffman.

Posted by: obama is a traitor at November 04, 2009 12:37 AM (Qt4Y7)

434 435
I've read quite a bit about the Cultural Revolution, and what I mean
is, if the older politicians fail to deliver, we'll... turn you into
Newts.



Newt Gingriches, that is.

Well then, get crackin' boy. You've got no time to waste. Get your age group together and get them outta Obama's ass waiting for their next spew. Hurry. It may well be too late. From what I see, your generation is wallowing in the trough, fat, lazy and indolent. They need.... YOU.

Go get em, and make them see the truth. Don't be pointing fingers at those holding you back according to you- your parents, your teachers. Be looking at your friends. Those are the people you can currently influence. So influence them.
Do it now, before there is nothing left!

Posted by: Derak at November 04, 2009 01:03 AM (lLxSN)

435 The votes of the crab people were just too numerous for Hoffman to prevail.

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