1 Ack.

2 Man--just 60 miles to a possible landing...less than ten minutes of flying time.

3

what was the ratio of progressives to sane people onboard?

'cause if it was high enough....

4 As a mechanical engineer with 25 years experience, including some in aircraft, I don't like to fly commercially at all. Too many people, machine is too complicated, loss of control of a single physical factor (lift, drag, thrust, attitude) often spells disaster. The only guarantee: You Will Land.

5 shoey--not cool.

6

Not many aircraft accidents happen so swiftly that the crew can not call in an inflight emergency.  Whatever took this aircraft down happenned fast and big.  An automated message was sent from the jet indicating an electrical problem, which is what you would expect if the aircraft was breaking up.

This aircraft has crashed at sea.  There won't be survivors.  My speculation is that it was probably a bomb, though it's possible some rare mechanical failure could have been to blame.  If it's a bomb, it's probably Muslims.  This is how things would have went down had the Shoe Bomber been successful.

It looks like the jet went down precisely between the humps of South America and Africa, which is where a terrorist would want to take down a jet, so as to hide the wreckage in three thousand feet of water.

Let's see who turns up on the passenger manifest.  I'm guessing one or more persons from a radical mosque are gonna pop up.

7

I'd say chance of survival of anyone onboard is almost non-existent at this point.

That's a bummer.  Plane crash would be a horrible way to go.  Because you know it's coming, but can't do anything about it.

8 yeah, that harsh, i apologize

9 Electricity does not "like to" enter a closed metal box, so aluminum aircraft were seldom destroyed by lightning strikes. Even new Boeing models will have carbon-fiber fuselage tubes like this Airbus. Perhaps engineers will consider adding metal strands to the carbon fiber, which would alleviate this property.

All-electric fly-by-wire seemed to many to be less failure-prone than hydraulic control lines. We may have to re-consider that.

It's the first day of hurricane season. Some AGW asshole is sure to blame this on climate change.

10

It looks like the jet went down precisely between the humps of South America and Africa, which is where a terrorist would want to take down a jet, so as to hide the wreckage in three thousand feet of water.

I would think a terrorist would want to take down a plane on land, preferably over a highly populated area.  Both for collatoral damage, and because they don't want to hide the wreckage, they want everyone to see it.

11 Simply awful. Do they have an idea where in the Atlantic the plane may have crashed? Holding out hope for some survivors...

12 If they can't recover wreckage, we may never know what happened.

13

It's Bush's fault.

14 2 Army recruiters shot in a drive-by.  Both in critical condition.  KATV

15

Tantor/all:

Let's try a little fact in our espresso this morning and hold the totally unhinged conjecture...'mkay?

16

Bush did what?

Seriously, I sure that I can speak for a high percentage of the morons here, that these poor souls are in our prayers.

I'd hate to think it was an act of terrorism, but the French response should be interesting.

17 This is so frightening. My thoughts are with their families today.

18 Awful news.  As many have already said, pretty likely no survivors.   Hopefully we'll find out soon what may have happened, but I always think of a terrorist attack - ooops, I mean man-caused disaster - first. 

Thoughts and prayers for the families of the passengers and crew.

19 Perhaps engineers will consider adding metal strands to the carbon fiber, which would alleviate this property.

Well, some composite light aircraft already incorporate metal mesh for just this reason.  I don't know what the large aircraft builders are doing at the moment but considering that they have way more than enough experience with what lightning strikes do to uninsulated components like radomes, one would think they'd incorporate some degree of protection in terms of channeling electron flow.

20

2 Army recruiters shot in a drive-by.  Both in critical condition.  KATV

What a dirtbag who did this.  What's the deal with it?  He specifically targeted a military recruiting office, and had a possible bomb with him.  He a man of the religion of peace? 

21

Tantor: Not many aircraft accidents happen so swiftly that the crew can not call in an inflight emergency... This aircraft has crashed at sea. There won't be survivors... hide the wreckage in three thousand feet of water...

I don't much care for Tom Hanks or his politics - but the premise of Cast Way was pretty neat - what if you DID survive the breakup of a large jet at sea?

In this case, surely there will be a big oil [kerosene?] slick and multitudinous flotsam & jetsam in the general vicinity of the wreck.

Speaking of which, did anyone catch the finale of Breaking Bad last night?

Not sure what the structural point of it was - mighty surrealistic episode - unless maybe next season the NTSB will be all over the air traffic controller's ass, leading to an FBI/DEA investigation of Jesse Pinkman's relationship with the daughter.

Although there was the parallel theme last night of how drugs destroy peoples' lives - maybe they intend to push Walter towards his Come-to-Jesus moment?

 

22

Cast Way = Cast Away

 

23 yinzer, I only saw that article.  All that I know is that the story will be conspicuous by its absence at CNN.

24 maybe they crashed on an island that keeps moving.  Then 6 people will get off the island and try to go back.

25 Perhaps engineers will consider adding metal strands to the carbon fiber, which would alleviate this property.

Well, some composite light aircraft already incorporate metal mesh for just this reason.

Yeah, the composite-fuselage 787 has a metal mesh for lightning protection.

All-electric fly-by-wire seemed to many to be less failure-prone than hydraulic control lines. We may have to re-consider that.

I highly doubt one accident will change the statistics in any meaningful way.

26

Speaking of planes and epic fails,

When is the Profiteer CEO OBambi gonna take over Boeing?

Gotta bail out another Union soon.

27 They should be able to find something...bodies, luggage, etc... Loss of cabin pressure at high altitude is a big deal. They were all probably passed out before the end.

This is what I think about every time I get on a plane. Flying to the gates of hell know as San Francisco next weekend.

28 Off topic....two army recruiters have been shot in Little Rock.  One's dead.  :/

29 As a relatively frequent trans-Atlantic passenger this just makes me sick to my stomach.  I fly Delta / Air France through Atlanta, over Iceland and on to de Gaulle at least once a year, and every time I do I sit and stare at that little icon and read the measurements and just pray nothing happens to my ass.  Usually you're around 40 K feet in the air and it's at least - 50 F outside.  Assuming the plane doesn't decompress or open up for some reason, you'd fall for nearly a minute before you hit the water.  Terrifying.

30 27 They should be able to find something...bodies, luggage, etc... Loss of cabin pressure at high altitude is a big deal. They were all probably passed out before the end.

The question will be over how many square miles the wreckage is spread over, between the speed of the aircraft, the condition it was in before the crash, and where the waves moved any floating debris.


Then again, for all we know, they just "disappeared" and ended up at The Island.  I wonder if someone on there just won the lottery by playing 4 8 15 16 23 42 before the flight.

31 Whatever took this aircraft down happenned fast and big.

I'm sticking with my Chupacabra theory.  And, yes, that's whistling past the graveyard because this is so awful all I can do is make really lame and inappropriate jokes.  May God have mercy on all their souls. 

32 That really sucks.  That just really sucks.

@ 14 Anything else on this article?  All it said was that he had a specific package and that he shot two guys outside.  There's no info about what was in the package yet, and for all we know it was two guys he didn't like that just happened to be in front of the place.  Have they released the victims' identities yet?

33 Posted by: Tantor at June 01, 2009 12:01 PM (SWvPS)

Maybe but the thunderstorms are more than enough to ruin your day.

I'm not sure what the protocols are for course deviations on trans-Atlantic crossings but most pilots run from thunderstorms. They are more than enough to ruin your day.

34 See how scary thunderstorms are? They made me repeat myself.

Jebus, I need to reread comments before hitting post.

35 Re: the shooting at the Recruiting Station in West Little Rock- from the KATV article, it is unclear whether any Army personnel were shot. Could be it was two guys from the neighborhood hanging out front. Dunno. Dunno why the guy shot them. There's just no way of telling from the article. But it is simply awful.

36 France asks U.S. military to help locate the crash site.

37 Posted by: XBradTC at June 01, 2009 12:26 PM (BtjCI)

Check out the last two paragraphs of the story. They may have been added later but it seems clear that they are soldiers and have both deployed.

38

Drew-

Best wishes for those on board?  That just seems so wrong.  Prayers, hope, something, but not best wishes.  Kind of sounds like your hoping they win the lottery.

Just sayin'.

39

All of the news reports I've read say they were two Army recruiters.

40 It looks like the jet went down precisely between the humps of South America and Africa, which is where a terrorist would want to take down a jet, so as to hide the wreckage in three thousand feet of water.

Why would a terrorist care about hiding the wreckage? Wreckage makes good news coverage. It bleeds, it leads. And why a plane out of Brazil?

It doesn't smell like terrorism.

41 If it was some kind of mechanical problem, it had to be catastrophic and too fast for the pilots to radio a distress call. My heart goes out to all their families.

42

Man! What a rotten day.

43

Anyone else having trouble bringing up the 2 soldiers thread?

I know AoSHQ link is first on google right now.

44 Why is the above comment thread crashing?

45

Yay! -- we broke the new blog!

46 They keep saying the plane hit thunderstorms over the Atlantic.  That does not make any sense.  They divert around heavy storms, which they see on those fancy radar gizmos all large planes are outfitted with....air control of the flight had not been passed to Africa yet, and it would be known, and reported by now if there had been heading and altitude changes made prior to losing contact, (this is assumed because other information is available, like the automated report of an electrical fault...and the exact time the plane 'vanished'...since those pieces of information are available, so would reports of course corrections). 

47 Ugh! What's with all this shitty news lately? Recruiters murdered, evil man murdered in church, and now this freak plane crash. God have mercy on all of their souls. Even that POS Tiller.

48 Still first link on google.  funny.

49 I'd rather drive 3,000+ miles than get on a commercial airliner...and have done so numerous times.  

50 Oh, I forgot, and GM going kaput. Of course, that has been a slow death coming for a while so there's no big shock there. *sigh*

51 Blacksheep:  From 40,000 the time to fall to sea level would be 3 to 4 minutes.

52

I suspect an In Search Of episode will arise from this one.  Tres triste. 

53

And on top of all of the other bad news this blog has gone kaput. All of the comments on the recruiters thread have vanished.

54 I'd rather drive 3,000+ miles than get on a commercial airliner...and have done so numerous times.

I hope you don't mean for safety reasons. More than 40,000 Americans die in traffic accidents each year; that's the equivalent of an A330 like the one in this accident crashing with no survivors every other day.

55

My kid has a phobia about flying over oceans. He is afraid of going down and then being eaten by sharks, which I always reassure him will never happen.

He heard this on the news yesterday and just looked at me, silently, with a raised eyebrow.

It's about time for him to become disillusioned with me anyway.

 

56

We start water rationing in San Diego today, too, Tinian.

Next there will be a beer shortage or something.

57 The Brazilian Air Force, which was monitoring the flight and which evidently provides air traffic control, gives its last reported position as  Lat. 00º 26, 59 S., Long. 031º 52, 64 W, about 421 nautical miles NE of Natal, Brazil.

58

USAF avoids Tstorms by 10 NM up to 230.  Above, we avoid by 20 NM.  You do NOT screw around with T-storms.  Some of the scariest times I've had had been with T-storm avoidance.  Taliban is a distant second.

Im still not sure about the carbon fibre deal.  Im sorta old school.  I like the metal, it bends.  Im thinking about getting a kitplane for my Montana place.... All composite.

*sigh*

Poor souls.

 

59

I made the North Atlantic jaunt many times when I was stationed in the UK but assigned to a unit in the states.  Most of the time it's an OK flight, but the only time in my life where I've been airsick occurred when flying back to the UK from Chicago on 777 with a vicious tailwind--I swear, it felt like we were flying sideways.  Combined with the extra stength cold medicine, merlot, and steak au poivre, barfing totally ruined first class. 

60 @54 Waterhouse: Thanks for the perspective -- I hoped someone would mention that. And diabetes, coronary artery disease, etc. most likely kill multiple planeloads every day, if not every hour.

(longtime lurker, newly converted moron; don't know how to do the fancy quoting thing)

61

it is the prolifers fault if only you illiterate homeschooled southerners had allowed women to get abortions and allowed george tiller to do god's work instead of calling on your fellow man to kill him and pretend to oppose the murder this jet would not have disappeared

 

/Wendy

62 51 --

I must have made a meters vs. feet mistake in the calculation.  Thanks.

Even worse then.

63 Airbus aircraft have an unfortunate tendency to disintegrate. A large thunderstorm has the energy equivalent of a nuclear weapon. They can bring a plane down. Lightening strikes are usually harmless.

64 I blame global warming. Think about it. Before 1900 there were very few, if any airline crashes. Now they happen with increasing frequency.

65

Why would a terrorist care about hiding the wreckage? Wreckage makes good news coverage. It bleeds, it leads. And why a plane out of Brazil?

Bound for France. Maybe they just mistimed the bomb, and were hoping for a detonation over Gay Paree?? These terrorists are not geniuses....

66 Air France says they've narrowed down a bit the location. The grammar on this link is rough, as I put it through a translator:

http://tinyurl.com/lbj68b

For lightning to bring this plane down, it would have to be a pinpoint strike (a-la the death star) to start a chain reaction. Of course these types of planes, I think, have weather radar and should know to fly around bad storms, but do have some discretion.

What I want to know is if such strike could cause a similar reaction in the Airbus to that of the 747 in TWA 800, where the fuel vapor was ignited by a spark. That seems like the most plausible idea to me based on what is out there right now.

67

What I want to know is if such strike could cause a similar reaction in the Airbus to that of the 747 in TWA 800, where the fuel vapor was ignited by a spark. That seems like the most plausible idea to me based on what is out there right now.

Was that confirmed? I have always been dubious about the rather muted response to TWA 800.

68 @67... Well, it depends who you ask. Pierre Salinger would disagree with me. But, the NTSB cites a fuel tank ignition, but does not pinpoint the cause for a spark, just saying there was something to ignite.

http://www.ntsb.gov/Publictn/2000/aar0003.htm

69 The terrorists/over water thing is exactly what operation Bojinka was supposed to do, blowing up 10-12 passenger planes over the Pacific.  Not saying that's what happened here, but it certainly has been their goal in the past.

70

@67... Well, it depends who you ask. Pierre Salinger would disagree with me. But, the NTSB cites a fuel tank ignition, but does not pinpoint the cause for a spark, just saying there was something to ignite.

I am dubious about the NTSB's announced claim, just because of the long history of 747 operations. By their standard (heat), 747's that fly to and from the tropics and desert climes should be going off like popcorn.

71 That's a good point. Perhaps a better comparison between today's tragedy and TWA800 is that we may never really know the exact reason.

But to suggest that lightning alone did the trick here is a bit suspect to me, even in our world of speculation in which I am contributing. Caveat: I'm not a pilot, but I do study safety in the commercial aviation industry as I'm starting my career in academia.

72 I don't think the fact that it's mid-ocean means that a terrorist group would not execute it that way.  The Air India bombing had the same reasoning: difficulty to recover evidence, etc.  (Alas, most of the actors in that one have gotten off scot-free.)

73 68 @67... Well, it depends who you ask. Pierre Salinger would disagree with me. But, the NTSB cites a fuel tank ignition, but does not pinpoint the cause for a spark, just saying there was something to ignite.

http://www.ntsb.gov/Publictn/2000/aar0003.htm

That reminds me of the old Norm MacDonald routine about Flight 800, which goes "The FAA has announced that the explosion of TWA 800 was caused by a frayed wire.  It was also determined that the wire became frayed when it was hit by a missile."

74

A statement on the Air France website confirmed the plane was transporting 58 Brazilians, 61 French (a percentage of whom were French-passport carrying Brazilians), 26 Germans, nine Italians and nine Chinese.

Six Swiss, five Lebanese, four Hungarians, three Norwegians, three Slovakians, two Americans, two Moroccans were also on board.

Of the remaining 18 passengers, 16 were from Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Gambia, Iceland, the Netherlands, the Phillipines,Romania, Russia, South Africa, Sweden and Turkey. The nationality of the last two remains unknown.

An Air France spokeswoman said the 12 crew on board were all French"  http://tinyurl.com/m8wc7r

Communique #5, Air France website:  .http://tinyurl.com/mbn479

75 I think the best thing I've read about this is by posted "vspop" over at flyertalk.com

"Well the simple fact is that EVERYTHING so far has been a guess, the Media, The Goverment, even the so called experts (And if you watch many of those are ERAU Grads or Professors). The only real facts have been the Release of the notification by the automated system, the loss of transponder and last radio com.

Until they can recove some of the plane/black boxes we really will have no idea what happened. It is possible that we will not know what happened. TWA flight 800 is a great example of how difficult it will be. That flight was close and in shallow water and it still took a huge amount of time to put things together. Even to this day some still like to claim that it was shot down.

All we know is that they did have a system(s) fail, we at this point have no idea what caused the failure and if it was the cause of the crash or if it was just a side effect that had no effect. (Example would be if the plane had a huge failure of the airframe loss of power probably did nothing to keep them from crashing)"

76

i'll bet you $462 that little generious fudgepackers will blame it on creationists

77

Yinzer:  "I would think a terrorist would want to take down a plane on land, preferably over a highly populated area.  Both for collatoral damage, and because they don't want to hide the wreckage, they want everyone to see it."

Lockerbie demonstrated to the world that an aircraft crash on land can be rigorously examined and yield minute evidence that fingers the perpetrators.  They identified the perpetrators from a fragment of a circuit board.

V the K:  "Why would a terrorist care about hiding the wreckage? Wreckage makes good news coverage. It bleeds, it leads. And why a plane out of Brazil?"

It's harder for the US to catch you if the aircraft investigators have little evidence with which to work.  Brazil probably has slacker airport security than a Western airport.

DngrMse:  "They keep saying the plane hit thunderstorms over the Atlantic.  That does not make any sense.  They divert around heavy storms, which they see on those fancy radar gizmos all large planes are outfitted with...."

Zackly.  The reason airliners are pressurized is to fly above the weather.  Thunderstorms have anvils that project up above the cloud deck but you fly around them with your weather radar.  An Airbus at 35,000 feet is never gonna fly through a thunderstorm.  Ever.

Circa (Insert Year Here):   "Tantor/all:  Let's try a little fact in our espresso this morning and hold the totally unhinged conjecture...'mkay?"

It is a fact that jihadis have made multiple attempts to plant bombs on airliners crossing the Atlantic.  It is also a fact that there are few aircraft emergencies that do not allow time to contact air traffic control.  Bombs exploding on board are one of those.  Airplanes rarely break up spontaneously without reason.  A bomb is the most plausible scenario at this point.

78 "Meteorologists said tropical storms are much more violent than thunderstorms in the United States and elsewhere.

"Tropical thunderstorms ... can tower up to 50,000 feet (15,240 meters). At the altitude it was flying, it's possible that the Air France plane flew directly into the most charged part of the storm — the top," Henry Margusity, senior meteorologist for Accuweather.com, said in a statement."

Wrong.  Tropical thunderstorms do not produce F-5 tornadoes and associated characteristics related to wind sheer.   This is not uncommon in the central part of the United States, especially Oklahoma.  In addition, these thunderstorms routinely top 65,000 feet.

I wonder where they get abject morons like Henry Margusity for interview. 

79 I don't watch "LOST" but a lot of lost comments are being made in connection with this news.

80 BTW, in #78, the quote was from the linked article.

81

At the very least, one can take solace in the fact that they spent the last portion of their lives (presumably) in Rio.  I can think of a lot worse places to spend my final days in...assuming I knew they would be my final days. 

Speaking of disputed crash investigations, surprised nobody mentioned AA 587, the Airbus that crashed in Queens in Oct 01.  The cited causes didn't reflect terribly well on either the pilot training or the resiliency of the aircraft.  However, some of the witnesses said they heard explosions prior to its impact. 

 

82 What do you mean, muffy?  I just got back from my daily jog, so I haven't seen any yet...

83 Hahhhahha, I see you are a major character on the program.  Yep people are making those kinds of comments like on line at the grocery store or at target.  Or among friends who watch the program.  I don't watch and have been told to "wait until it is all over and watch every episode then".

84

Muffy, I guess the program has somewhat desensitized us about such things.  Plus, I guess that since there isn't any footage of a massive debris field, or recovered passengers, the whole story is still in limbo for some of us; it doesn't exactly "hit home" for some people until it is confirmed that there were no survivors.  Nervous hope that there might be an alternate outcome, know what I mean?

And I don't think you have to wait for the entire series to be over before you dig in, although I would definitely recommend buying an entire season on DVD, and watching them that way.  Sequentially, without commercial interruption, and without having to wait a week (or more) between episodes.

85 Big Fat Meanie: I seem to recall the the engines broke off that plane just before it crashed, which I assume would be a rather loud, explosive sound coming from above.

86 A little more trickles out....

10 distress calls, and automated messages suggesting something "unexpected and exceptional happened on board".

It could still be weather related, I suppose...but again, they tend to avoid flying through thunderstorms.  If they did'nt in this case, that's something that needs to be explained.

87 Flew B-52G's for years. Also C-130's, C-141's and a few others. Lightning did not do this. At altitude you fly around T-storms. The military ahs more stringent safely req's than civilian (amazing huh?), but a pilot could elect to penetrate the storm while at altitude (not this pilot).

My wild-assed-guess is terror first, then turbulence second that caused a catastrophic platform (read airplane) failure that simply ripped the ship apart.

the terrorists have in the past preferred to destroy over water. Lockerbie was a mistake - the bomb was set with an altimeter that was activated when the ship passed 30k feet. then when they descended it would blow. This should have happened off the Icelandic coast but they descended for traffic and the damn thing went off over Lockerbie.

My bet 90% terror, 10% bad joss.

88 The automated message also reported loss of cabin pressure.  Sounds like the hull was breached.

ABC News:  "What Air France does know is that 10 automated messages were sent directly from the plane to maintenance at 10:14 p.m. after it experienced turbulence and thunderstorm, saying the plane had experienced an "electrical short circuit."

89 And for the record if a ship breaks up at altitude and at cruising speed, the passengers would likely have their necks snapped instantly (among other unpleasant things). they would not have suffered or been "aware" unless this thing unfolded slowly. A scenario that appears remote. Small consolation to the grieving.

90 I wish you conservatives would be adult enough to accept that planes do crash once in a while...

91 When an airliner breaks up at altitude, a few people are killed and more wounded by the flying metal.  Most go unconscious within a few seconds because there is neither the oxygen nor air pressure necessary to breathe.  They would wake up as the plane got to about 10,000 feet in time to be terrified during the final descent.

92 87 NuclearJim
Thank you for your service.
I agree with your assessment. Even a mechanical failure would trigger a verbal response. The water is very deep there and a terrorist would have accomplished their goal because the cause was unexplainable.

93 Gosh Peggy, your insightful and thoughtful commentary is so helpful. I'm certain that your life experiences as a pilot and member of the aviation community shed brilliant bright light on the subject, reassuring all who read your well considered opinion.

Perhaps you could postulate on additional subjects such as what color green goes best with blue. Thanks for the input, you really made ME think.

94

nuclearjim,

So you flew B-52? Awesome! What was the longest mission you have flown distance-wise?  If you can't be country-specific, just mileage/hours. . . .

95 I just checked again the link I posted at http://tinyurl.com/6rf550
And I can see that the jet continued many hundreds of miles beyond the storm front. I can't buy lightening.
...Instrument pilot

96 airbus planes are fly by wire if they lose electrical power they can not be flown all controls are lost

97 jets burn kerosene. the kerosene vapors could not be ignited if you put a spark plug in the vapor and a match flame is barely hot enough to light kerosene.

98 87 nuclearjim -- dammit, I was afraid someone with clue would come to that set of conclusions. (I'm just an AW&ST-reading wannabe, so thanks for the insight.)

99 Logprof, My longest airborne was a support/joint mission from Blytheville, AR to Egypt and back. No landing, just air refueling. We dropped iron and then turned around and came home. Parked the BUFF (acronym for Big Ugle Fat F***er) right where we rolled off from. Two full crews. About 28 hours. Boy did we smell GOOD. Add 4 hours prep at the beginning and 2 hours debriefing and it was a long day. that was nearly 30 years ago. Mileage wise, heck I can't even guess. We logged hours not nautical miles.Got some sort of medal for it. Can't recall whcih ribbon. they all look like tossed salad on the dress one's anyway.

NortonPete, it gets curious-er and curious-er.........

Lights out, over.

100 WOULD SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THE FOLLOWING:

Since when does a commercial jet, still at least a thousands of miles away from its destination, fly low enough to encounter lightning?  Turbulence, yes, but lightning?  Don't jets fly above rain clouds at that point?

101

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102

We're all Frenchmen now. 

Until, umm, they want us to help or anything.

103 The Airbus has a backup system to power the fly-by-wire. 

At ambient temperatures, kerosene is difficult to ignite... but in some aircraft the kerosene in the fuel tank becomes heated (something about a fuel recirculation system?) and can easily reach temperatures where a small spark can cause ignition.  The TWA disaster off Long Island was blamed on this.  Don't know if the Airbus might be susceptible to this kind of accident.

The sighting of numerous orange flame-like dots on the water by other pilots is ominous.  A crash "intact" into the water would probably not result in fire.  A failed ditching maneuver might result in a fire, but if it did it would probably be just one large fire.  But if the plane came apart in flight,  that would very likely result in visibly separated fires on the ocean surface.

I hope they find the flight recorders soon!   

104 They've found two debris fields thirty-five miles apart, which indicate the jet broke up at altitude into two or more parts.  That's more evidence for the bomb scenario.

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