Homicide Rate in Iraq Less Than <i>One-Sixth</i> the Rate in... America

Homicide Rate in Iraq Less Than One-Sixth the Rate in... America

And it's lower now than it was under Saddam Hussein.

It's at 0.9 per 100,000. In America, the grim milestone sits at 5.9 per 100,000.

The number of daily attacks in Iraq has dropped nearly 95 percent since last year, a U.S. military official said yesterday.
Iraq suffered an average of 180 attacks per day this time last year. But over the past week, the average number was 10, Army Brig. Gen. David G. Perkins, a Multinational Force Iraq spokesman, said.
“This is a dramatic improvement of safety throughout the country,” Perkins told reporters during a wide-ranging news conference in Baghdad yesterday.

Iraq has a pretty good future in store for it. Crime imposes serious costs on a society, of course. Due to the horror of the near civil war, a huge fraction of the criminally, murderously inclined have themselves been killed. In the US, we had a huge crime spike when a large bubble in the population reached the age of active criminality; when that cohort passed that age, crime fell dramatically. In Iraq, that demographic as been seriously culled.

Not only isn't there going to be much war in Iraq, it's also going to have a subnormal criminality rate for 15 or 20 years. Which is obviously a boon for the economy. And other living things.

Related: Today is the anniversary of the most celebrated response to an offer of surrender -- "Nuts."

A nice long passage about the Battle of the Bulge at the link, marred only by a lack of paragraphization.

As many commenters will point out, the American commander probably did not say "Nuts!," but probably offered a suggestion regarding autofornication a la Dick Cheney's famous rejoinder to Pat Leahy.

He Really Did Say Nuts? I've never gotten the story straight on this one. But DrewM and Arthur assure me he probably did say "Nuts."

Not as Good as Advertised? Bgates thinks that there's some hinkiness in comparing a monthly rate to a yearly rate. I believe that number must be annualized for the year, the same way quarterly GDP numbers are annualized.

I have no evidence for this, except the belief they wouldn't try to slip that past us.

Posted by: Ace at 04:10 PM

Comments

1 Of course what will happen to negate this positive fact is they'll take the rate over several years and average it to prove Iraq is still a dangerous place.

Posted by: buzzion at December 22, 2008 04:14 PM (Lrsi6)

2 Every time I see a "grim milestone" joke, I want to kick a journalist in the taint. Anti-American cocksuckers.

Posted by: Kensington at December 22, 2008 04:15 PM (fhJCy)

But shoe-icide is up 100%, Ace. (Still, that's better than e.g. Chicago's murder rates.)

Posted by: andycanuck at December 22, 2008 04:19 PM (CZaaY)

4 It wasn't just the aging of the cohort. Large numbers of young, predominantly black men were vacuumed up and put in jail as law enforcement finally decided to deal with the crack epidemic. Since they were statistically the most likely to commit crimes, and were no longer on the streets, crime rates fell nationwide. The causes of the fall in crime are thus similar (incapacitation of the criminal cohort), although obviously the Iraqi "solution" was more drastic.

Posted by: pep at December 22, 2008 04:22 PM (Vv9//)

5 I think that's 0.9 in a month vs 5.9 for a year. So the homicide rate in Iraq would be 10.8 per 100,000 for the year, if they could keep the rate that low. Pretty phenomenal, but not as good as NR tried to make it sound.

Posted by: bgates at December 22, 2008 04:23 PM (kAULt)

6 Actually, McAuliffe may have said nuts in reality.

But then McAuliffe realized that some sort of reply was in order. He pondered for a few minutes and then told the staff, "Well I don't know what to tell them." He then asked the staff what they thought, and I spoke up, saying, "That first remark of yours would be hard to beat." McAuliffe said, "What do you mean?" I answered, "Sir, you said 'Nuts'." All members of the staff enthusiastically agreed, and McAuliffe decided to send that one word, "Nuts!" back to the Germans. McAuliffe then wrote down: "To the German Commander, "Nuts!" The American Commander."

Interestingly, McAuliffe was only in command because the actual division commander was away at the time of the attack.

Posted by: DrewM. at December 22, 2008 04:23 PM (hlYel)

7 > As many commenters will point out, the American commander probably did not say "Nuts!,"

According to this podcast
---
Dirty Little Secrets of the Battle of the Bulge – 12/18/2008
Jim and Al talk about the Battle of the Bulge from their unique view point.
http://www.strategypage.com/StrategyTalk/recordings/the-battle-of-the-bulge.mp3
-----
he actually did say "Nuts". That's backed by many eyewitnesses.

Posted by: Arthur at December 22, 2008 04:25 PM (kpfAf)

8 Jeeze, there's a lot of military geeks on this blog...

Posted by: Arthur at December 22, 2008 04:26 PM (kpfAf)

9 It'll be over 500 here this year...it already is they just don't report it. If it wasn't for how good EMS is now, it'd be waaaay up there. I remember when it was around 900. It's down 400. People are such pussys nowadays!

Posted by: LtE113 (MIke in Chicago) at December 22, 2008 04:27 PM (/L1AV)

10 obviously that's because we have too many guns

Posted by: Montjoie at December 22, 2008 04:31 PM (fBBXE)

11 pep--

Yes, I acknowledge that, but i do think demographics played a role. Crime fell all over the country, even in areas without lock-'em-up policies.

Posted by: ace at December 22, 2008 04:34 PM (8T2pi)

12 This is a smart mil-blog, afterall.

Posted by: CUS at December 22, 2008 04:38 PM (+p7v2)

13 And the murder rate in Tijuana is the highest of them all. On track for 55 murders per 100,000 in 2008! Suck on that, Detroit!

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Posted by: wooga at December 22, 2008 04:39 PM (2p0e3)

14 Another one that I'm fond of is John Frost's surrounded and battered battalion of the British 1st Airborne Division at Arnhem during Market Garden.

When the Germans sent an officer to discuss surrender, the British officer who received the German told him that although he'd love to accept the German surrender, the Brits weren't in a position where they could feed and house so many prisoners.

Would that the current British leadership could show such grit.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at December 22, 2008 04:42 PM (InMdt)

15 Perhaps Big O will send US troops to Chicago.

Posted by: WonderWartHog at December 22, 2008 04:46 PM (LVT6e)

16 Actually, McAuliffe may have said nuts in reality.

In reading the story at that link, I can only imagine the Germans employiong a diffeent strategy if this battle were being waged today.

First, instead of sending the letter to the General, send it to the New York Times. They would print it on their Opinions page, along with 4 more editorials explaining how they make a valid point and that the war is lost and how we should be willing to surrender, to save the lives of our military. Then there would be daily editirials, by differnet writers, but all sayin gthe same exact thing, until the talking points are all appropriately tested and ready to go.

Then, Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin would get on their respective floors of Congress, read the NYTs editirials into the Congressional Record and demand that General McCauliffe return to Washington immediately and explain before multiple commitees why he doesn't immediately surrender, all the while calling him a liar before he even answers a single question.

The idiot talking heads, like Olbermann and Matthews would demand his immediate resignation (and call him the Worst Person in the World, like petulant little children) They would also demand an investigation into how we we are illegally invading small towns and villages in Europe and possibly murdering civilians (all with no other evidence than the rantings of some boobs on Kos.)

Finally, the order would come down to withdraw from Bastogne and send the Germans a letter of apology for any inconvenience we may have caused, as well as releasing all POWs from any actions resulting from our holding the town.

Posted by: wiserbud at December 22, 2008 04:50 PM (IHbof)

17 I swear I'm not drunk. I just type really, really badly.

Posted by: wiserbud at December 22, 2008 04:51 PM (wWwJR)

18 Also the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 8 launch.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at December 22, 2008 04:56 PM (VEBC3)

19 From the defenselink.mil story: "the country’s murder rates have dropped below levels that existed before the start of American operations in Iraq. In November, the ratio was 0.9 per 100,000 people." I reiterate shenanigans.

Posted by: bgates at December 22, 2008 05:06 PM (kAULt)

At the height of the "nation building" casualties the death rate of U.S. trooops was less than that of New Orleans.

We should have pulled out of New Orleans.

Posted by: Vic at December 22, 2008 05:08 PM (f6os6)

Yes, you need to multiply the monthly rate by 12, so it's actually about 11, or roughly twice the US rate,

Still, do some comparisons to countries like South Africa at 49.6, Venezuela at 31.6 or even Jamaica (!) at 32.4, and Iraq looks pretty peaceful.

Note that none of those places are remotely considered to be in a state of civil war.

Posted by: TallDave at December 22, 2008 05:11 PM (AZmZT)

Link.

If you asked people whether Iraq or Jamaica was more violent, what percentage do you think would answer correctly? I'm guessing over 90% would get it wrong.

Now compare that ignorance to the media obsession over the small proportion of Americans who say Saddam was behind 9/11.

Posted by: TallDave at December 22, 2008 05:19 PM (AZmZT)

23 TallDave, absolutely right. And since Iraq looks so good compared to reasonable benchmarks like the countries you mention, we should talk about it in those terms. I would hate to see legitimately great news buried under a "conservatives can't tell a rate from a ratio" storyline. You could have made a lot of money in 2003 (or 2006!) betting the Iraqi homicide rate would be down to 11 per 100,000 by 2010, and American military fatalities during the Bush administration would be less than 2x that of the Clinton admin.

Posted by: bgates at December 22, 2008 05:22 PM (kAULt)

24

I know of no culture who would find the response of "go fuck yourself" translated into their own language ambiguous. Can't say the same about "nuts."

Posted by: Moron in the dirty raincoat at December 22, 2008 05:23 PM (6GxBg)

25 How long before the libtards start screaming about "ending the military occupation of the U.S." Sounds insane, but then again.... there is crime in the U.S., we have a military, ergo, our military must be occupying our nation and killing innocent civilians.

/moonbat logic is easy if you forget what "logic" means.

Posted by: shibumi at December 22, 2008 05:28 PM (tZB/c)

26 Hmmm, perhaps we need a civil war to cull the radical herd and usher in a couple decades of public safety, not to mention quiet.

Posted by: jk at December 22, 2008 05:36 PM (ix3FU)

OK, here's another view of the numbers:

Iraq looks a lot worse here, because these are Iraq Body Count numbers. IBC is very explicitly an antiwar group and they pretty much believe any claim of casualties without any evidence other than it appearing in one of Iraq's new newspapers (Iraq has only had free press since 2003 of course) which are not exactly bastions of reliable reporting. These numbers are almost certainly exaggerated (remember the 6 burning Sunnis and "Jamil Hussein"?) but could serve as an accepted maximum.

Using the OIC numbers (which I believe are based on IBC #s), I get 5844 total Iraqi deaths in 2008, or (5844 / 25M* 100K) = 23.37 per 100,000. Rounding up to 24 for the days left in this year puts them just under Mexico on that chart.

Posted by: TallDave at December 22, 2008 05:39 PM (AZmZT)

28 Test.

Posted by: TallDave at December 22, 2008 05:39 PM (AZmZT)

29 OK, it finally let me post the link. Remind me to slap Pixy next time I see him.

Posted by: TallDave at December 22, 2008 05:40 PM (AZmZT)

30 Hmmm, perhaps we need a civil war to cull the radical herd and usher in a couple decades of public safety, not to mention quiet.

We could do it by eliminating, oh, about 25 million people.

Posted by: B. Ayers at December 22, 2008 05:42 PM (XIXhw)

Also, worth noting the months of March and April (when Maliki stomped all over the Sadrists) were about twice as violent as the rest of the year and tend to skew the numbers up.

Looking at, say, October, we have 240 total deaths, so (240 * 12) / 25M * 100K = 11.52 per 100k per year. That makes them considerably safer than, say, Russia.

Remember, these are numbers from the anti-war crowd, not State or Pentagon.

Posted by: TallDave at December 22, 2008 05:48 PM (AZmZT)

"Happy people don't shoot their husbands. They just don't."

-- Elle Woods

Posted by: FireHorse at December 22, 2008 06:57 PM (5KNeJ)

33 Hmmm.

He was saying "Nuts!" but he was thinking "Fuck you motherfucker Teutonic Knight shithead!" or some such thing.

Posted by: memomachine at December 22, 2008 07:25 PM (XNKxF)

My second favorite response to a demand for surrender is "I have not yet begun to fight."

I do have misgivings about that one, though, because if Captain Pearson had been quicker witted he'd have responded with "I know, that's why I asked!"

Oh, snap!

Posted by: Steve Skubinna at December 22, 2008 07:53 PM (Vcyz0)

35 Hey, we could get our murder rate down there if we could turn 3rd ID loose on Detroit and South Central.

Posted by: SDN at December 22, 2008 09:30 PM (M0Ru1)

36 Yeah, but scrubbing all that graffitti off the Bradleys would be a bitch for troop morale...

Posted by: richard mcenroe at December 22, 2008 09:51 PM (pEXyx)

37 24, 33, BG McAuliffe had a reputation as a very non-profane fellow. Unlike George Patton, who never found an obscenity he didn't like.

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40 What bgates said.

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