1

An analysis of polls and early voting numbers in GA senate from Patrick Ruffini at The NextRight ... pretty interesting

http://tinyurl.com/5c8q4g

 

2

 

It's much more than just a win, you neophyte wonderful fellow.

It's a 6-year senate seat; they're always important. And it's in Georgia, so it would be doubly bad for the GOP to lose the seat. Losing the seat in Alaska was bad. Very bad. Now the Dems have a seat we should have had For The Next Six Years.

3 DrewM,

      Doesn't mean a lot in terms of stopping a filibuster-proof Dem majority of 60?

4 It would be nice to get a win, just to get a rest from donkey gloating!

5

Its going to be a blowout .... Gwinnett County is 2-1 Saxby, much better than McCain.

58-42 Sax - you heard it here first.

6

The one sure sign that the Dems are getting blown out tonight here in GA (im in ATL) is that the local and national media are ignoring the story.

 

7 Posted by: David Mickelson at December 02, 2008 07:57 PM (gie8+)

Not really. At worst the Dems are at 58. They can find 2 Republicans for just about anything.

8

But what's the turnout in Gwinnett County?  If it really is 2-to-1 at decent turnout, this thing is over and over potentially pretty darn big.

9 It's definitely giving Matt Drudge a major boner . . .

10 Jeb pros:  most conservative Bush, would win easily
Jeb cons:  another amnestoid?, can't finally get rid of those damn Bushes

11 FWIW, those damn Bushes are like a combined 6-0 in elections. Winners are something we can use in the GOP.

12 As for Jeb. I had a girlfriend tell me she hated Jeb, because he stole Fla. for GWB.

I said, if that was the case, why didn't he steal his OWN PRIMARY, instead of loosing it?

She said "Ohh, since you put it that way!" lol

13 the black turn out was running about 12% less than in pres election in early voting, not good news for martin, since McCain won by 5.2 % with high Obama black turnout

14 "FWIW, those damn Bushes are like a combined 6-0 in elections. Winners are something we can use in the GOP."

I seem to remember a loss in '92 for one Bush -- or did you just mean the Junior Bushes?

15 There was another Bush loss I mentioned above too

16 Senate's fine.

I'm sick of Presidents named "Bush."

17

>>Its going to be a blowout .... Gwinnett County is 2-1 Saxby, much better than McCain. <<

There's a message there.

Here's another message:  Mel Martinez, R-Florida won't run for re-election in 2010.  (He wants to spend more time with his family, of course.)

He knows there aren't enough people who want to vote for Republican like him, when they could vote for real Democrat, instead.

Adios, Mel.

18 G-ahff,

I agree with you. I'm guessing nearly 60% for Chambliss. A lot of the Obamanoids are like, "Hey, dude, whatever -- we got our Messiah. Who gives a rat's ass about the Senate."

19 I may revise my estimate upward. With 40% in, Saxby's still pulling well over 60%.

20 Well, I'm using Chrome mah damn self and it's not half bad for a cheese- dicked spyware- ridden piece of technofluff.
Other than that it's just another usable browser.
Am I missing some techno-orgasm or what?

21 Oops, wrong thread.My bad.

22

Truth:

Here's the latest:

GWINNETT 68 163 32,034 18,012 50,046

Not quite 2-1 but good nonetheless.

Notropis:

Exactly, the koolaid drinkers aren't turning out amongst whitey, and blacks simply aint going to turn out to vote for a white guy in a runoff. Period.

Here's Gwinnett on Nov 4

GWINNETT 163 163 158,746 129,025

Martin is in for a long night, that's why the media is ignoring it so far. No John King with a map talking results, no reporting at all on MSNBC, even Fox is ignoring it.

Sad.

 

23 RCP reports turnout was light but steady - looks like the GOP had the motivated voters this time.

24

#16...

If he wins the Senate, he will eventually run for President. Even some the people who hate GWB like Jeb.

As for immigration, he may have a more centered approach than many of us would like, but damn, we're going to have to start thinking 'BIG picture' at some point.

25 "As for immigration, he may have a more centered approach than many of us would like"

No.  70% of voters oppose amnesty.  It's in no way "centered".

26 Dekalb is still mostly uncounted -- that will be heavily Democrat, right?

27

Hannity will cover the Chambliss win - it's a great opportunity to beat up on Skeletor some. 

If only the GOP had motivated voters 4 weeks ago . . . *sigh*

 

28 You know, if these numbers hold up, it gets a little harder to make the case there's been a shift in the electorate vs. merely a confluence of really crappy events for us.

29

 

we're going to have to start thinking 'BIG picture' at some point.

I'm just a dummy, but that there sounds like code for compromise.

And compromise is just another word for abandoning your principles, abandoning reason, and agreeing with Leftists.

30

Notpolis

Yep, its going heavily Dem right now.

That will bring Sax down to about 58%....Fulton will not go big for Martin as Roswell and Alpharetta and Sandy Springs (im in Roswell) are going huge for Sax.

 

31 You know, if these numbers hold up, it gets a little harder to make the case there's been a shift in the electorate vs. merely a confluence of really crappy events for us.

Maybe,though we should still get rid of the Godbags just to be safe.

32 Amazingly, Plax is getting more coverage than Sax....fucking ridiculous.

33

The "godbags" are the reason the GOP is a national party at all, and definitely the reason Sax is winning big tonight.

The fucking media wont cover this blowout tho.

And the fact that Palin rallied the base yesterday and they are turning out.

Fucking sorry ass propaganda machine chugs on.

Just like the 700 point selloff yesterday was bush's fault, but the rally today was Obama's gain.

34

Don't kid yourselves, morons.  Jeb Bush brought us Mel Martinez, tapping him out of Orlando City Manager and sending him to D.C. in his bro's administration.  Jeb bush pretends a good conservative, in a basically conservative State, but is really pure RINO.  Unfortunately, McCollum is the only apparent conservative I can think of that may run and, honestly, he's a complete asshole.  He's wasting all of his time turning people off with his fights against certain types of games in Seminole casinos, plus I'm sure he'll fight gay adoption with every fiber of his being.  McCollum will lose, badly, and nebbish off into the sunset, hiking highwater pants.  He has zero appeal and Jeb Bush is no improvement.  If Charlie Crist runs, we're fucked; he'll appeal to a wide cross-section of (dumb) voters, but is a pure "cap-and-trade", shamnesty, universal health care RINO.

Two years to identify and advance a conservative against the RNC machine.

35 "If he wins the Senate, he will eventually run for President. Even some the people who hate GWB like Jeb."

I wouldn't quite say I "hate" GWB, but I definitely don't care for him.  Jeb, however, I like a lot.  GWB is, basically, a well-meaning amiable dunce: even after 8 years as President, he doesn't truly have a core set of political principles on domestic issues.  Jeb is a whole other story: a thoughtful, hard-working and articulate serious conservative.  He was a great governor (full disclosure: I worked with his office quite a lot when I was a legislative staffer), and would make a great senator and/or great president.

36 "...McCollum is the only apparent conservative I can think of that may run and, honestly, he's a complete asshole."

I voted for McCollum against Martinez, but I don't know if I see him running again.  Who I'd really like to see run for it is Marco Rubio, the outgoing Speaker of the Florida House.

37 AP projects a Chambliss win.

38 I'm going to need some serious cock later.

39

Even the douches at MSNBC are admitting Sax won. Fucking bastards.

40 I for one have had more than my share of Bush's in DC. Fuck Him !

41

I wonder what took crAP so long.  Could it be it was the Pubbie with the 20+-point lead?

For the record, with 71% reporting, Chambliss was up 882,385-570,598 (60.7%-39.3%).

42 they would have called this 21 hour ago for dem if they could have

43 ooops 1 hour ago ...

44 I hate to jinx this, but it's now 78% reporting.

We've gone from "tied" on Nov. 4 to a 20% lead without Obama.

45 dekalb 163 of 165 prec. now in ....  58.9 to 41.1

46

Looking at the county by county breakdown, it looks like it is going to go 60/40 Chambliss.  With 50% of the Fulton precints reporting and only a slight lead for Martin there he's pretty much sunk.

 

Too bad there's no Axelturf trolls about tonight to rub their noses in this.

47 Wolverine, you had it right the first time @42. This is the press we're talking about.

48

 At worst the Dems are at 58. They can find 2 Republicans for just about anything.

You rang, Drew?

49 this will probably close some as the rest of fulton and dekalb come in ... but looks like way over the 5-7% Saxby victory poll projections

50 makes you wonder what a do-over in Minnesota would yield with no Obama on the tciket

51 For all of you shouting "fuck Bush"  lets just think about a post 9-11 America at the end of an Albert Gore Jr presidency.  Has he made some mistakes?  No doubt.  Will I miss him?  Absolutely Goddamn right.

52

60-40..when does the recount start?

53

As for immigration, he may have a more centered approach than many of us would like, but damn, we're going to have to start thinking 'BIG picture' at some point.

 

Immigraton IS the big picture. In fact it's the entire musuem. Lose on that and lose on everything else. Once we get a Third World population the media won't have to cover for Obama any longer, his New Party membership will be something to shout from the rooftops.

54

#29...

No.Not at all. I'm just as fucking tired as the next guy of people riding the fence on issues for political expediency. I still, for the life of me, cannot figure out how in the hell McCain got the nod.

All I'm saying is that it's going to be tough being a no-holds-barred kind of voter because, clearly, there are a lot of fucking "Republicans" that don't give a crap about conservatism. We may have to take the 'most conservative' of the bunch and make do because, the people in my home state who handed McCain his nomination, have clearly forgotten what the hell conservatism means.

55 at least tomorrow I can read the paper without grimacing at the political news ....

56 Merry Chambliss to all, and to all, a good night!

57

51

For all of you shouting "fuck Bush"  lets just think about a post 9-11 America at the end of an Albert Gore Jr presidency.  Has he made some mistakes?  No doubt.  Will I miss him?  Absolutely Goddamn right.

You and the other half dozen or so people have a great party!

 

58 No more Clintoons, no more Bushes.

59

Posted by: Wolverine at December 02, 2008 10:25 PM (FVGJ9)

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As I said earlier, we love Jeb down here! He was a great gov and a wonderful person. I will never forget what he did for me and my mentally disabled son. Back in 2005 my son had been on a waiting list for years to recieve some funding for some programs that would be very helpful for him. Also that would give us some respict care time. Well I wrote then Gov Bush a short email from my heart and ask if he could help in anyway speed up the process. He did, within weeks the phone started ringing, things were getting done, and it all worked out thanks to Jeb!!!. The really neat thing is he didnt know me from Adams house cat.But he heard my silent cry for help.He has a big heart. I will never forget what he did for my son and my family.........I hope he runs for Senate. I hope he runs for Prez too..........

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