Will This Never End? UPDATED

OLD! Scroll down to see Liberrocky and Ace discuss the new numbers.

Update: The new numbers for South Carolina are out. McCain is nine points out in front of Huckabee, who seems to be losing ground to Thompson. Unfortunately for the Fredheads, Thompson does not appear to be gaining ground quick enough.

John McCain 28%
Mike Huckabee 19%
Mitt Romney 17%
Fred Thompson 16%
Rudy Giuliani 5%
Ron Paul 5%

Thompson has been directly challenging Huckabee on the campaign trail and hoping to gain some traction that will keep his campaign afloat. Earlier this year, Thompson had hoped to exploit dissatisfaction with the rest of the field and emerge as the choice for conservatives. When his campaign failed to take off, Huckabee saw the same opening and capitalized on it in a way Thompson did not. As recently as November, Thompson was tied for the lead in South Carolina.
The race remains very fluid with 8% of voters undecided and 11% saying there’s a good chance they could change their mind.

Original Post:
/C3PO whine.

Republicans will vote in Michigan on Tuesday and Nevada and South Carolina on Saturday. I'm already mad at voters in both states, and I don't even know why.

According to the latest polls, Romney and McCain are within the margin in Michigan, but there's no telling how crossover Democrats will affect the outcome. I think Romney is in make-or-break territory this week, no matter how much money his campaign has left (which may not be much after all). As voters settle in on the big winners, he will only see his numbers sink farther. I suspect his campaign knows it, too. By pulling their ads in South Carolina and Florida, they've put all their eggs in one high-risk basket.

South Carolina is a bit of a mystery at the moment. The last reputable poll there was conducted on Wednesday, which means we still haven't seen how things shook out after the debate in which Fred Thompson woke up. Both Huckabee and Paul took marvelous beatings led by Thompson, which Romney and McCain joined, and that's bound to show up in the polls which were conducted over the weekend. At last report, Huckabee and McCain were vying for the top spot, and you know which one of those devils I dislike more.

One thing to consider: I'm tired of the primaries, but you can bet that the candidates are ready to fall down and sleep for a month.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 05:04 PM

Comments

1 Meh, good for them. I want Fuckabee out of this race. He's acting like he's the next messiah anyways.

Posted by: Kaitian at January 14, 2008 04:58 AM (S5mm4)

^{/C3PO whine.}

Yarvin?!

Posted by: TheEJS at January 14, 2008 05:30 AM (JyC8j)

3 I'm already bored with coverage. The only thing that has me in suspense is how long Huckabee will be in it. I hope not til the end.

Blech.

Posted by: meep at January 14, 2008 05:51 AM (7uTCa)

4 So, is Huckabee's entire purpose in this campaign to prove that there are worse alternatives than John McAmnesty?

Posted by: V the K at January 14, 2008 08:33 AM (PLvLS)

5 Also, has anyone made the connection between Huckabee's record with pardons and commutations to his immigration policy? I mean, how can anyone expect a guy who handed out pardons to felons, rapists, and murderers like they were hall passes be expected to get tough with border jumpers?

Posted by: V the K at January 14, 2008 08:58 AM (PLvLS)

6 Thompson is a no-brainer at this point. Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, McCain...none are 100% true principled Conservatives; Thompson is.

Maybe it's time we stopped thinking about populists, likability, and compromise and started standing on Conservative principles.

Fred 08

Posted by: frode at January 14, 2008 09:36 AM (TdgA9)

7 Eh, I'll be the pessimist. I'm not so sure about this:

"Both Huckabee and Paul took marvelous beatings led by Thompson, which Romney and McCain joined, and that's bound to show up in the polls which were conducted over the weekend."

I worry that your average "likely voter" doesn't put a lot of gray matter into their decision any more. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Posted by: funky chicken at January 14, 2008 10:22 AM (I+jPP)

Only Romney and McCain are doing any type of campagining in Michigan, not one other person has any tv ad, phone calls or apprearances, nothing.

Michigan voters have noticed and are pissed, Romeny or McCain will get the win.

Posted by: Quality Weenie at January 14, 2008 10:49 AM (R6yie)

9 That's what Michigan gets for bumping its primary forward.

Posted by: Church's Chicken Stockholder at January 14, 2008 11:53 AM (AZziM)

10 You know, I'm tired of hearing these whining bitches from primary states.

"It's all about who spends months freezing their balls off in our shithole states, and kisses babies and asses repeating the same stump speeches over and over again. Yeah, we could see the speech once on TV, but then the candidate doesn't show that he caaaaaarrrres about us!"

And yeah, if you do the compressed primary schedule, how the hell are the guys supposed to be in 4 or 5 different states enough to satisfy you? Human cloning? Or the Romney 2 year campaign for the nomination?

What's that I heard? Complaints that we only get silver spoon elitists as candidates? Who else can satisfy the idiot primary voters?

Posted by: funky chicken at January 14, 2008 12:06 PM (I+jPP)

11 What happens with all of the 'penalty delegates' that states lose for having their primary too early? Do they have to vote at the Convention, or what?

Posted by: frode at January 14, 2008 12:37 PM (TdgA9)

12 frode, the Republicans only stripped the early states of half of their delegates. So Michigan will get to send 30 votes to the convention instead of 60. Florida will keep half.

Across the aisle, the DNC stripped all of the votes from the early states, making them essentially useless at the convention, unless the party changes its mind.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at January 14, 2008 12:55 PM (9MMEG)

13 I guess what I'm asking is, when those delegates are taken away from the penalized states, what happens to them? Are they added elsewhere?

Are we really headed for a brokered convention? I dearly hope so.

Posted by: frode at January 14, 2008 12:57 PM (TdgA9)

14 No, they're not added elsewhere. The total number of voting convention delegates is reduced by the same amount.

I doubt very much that we're on our way to a brokered convention. Super Tuesday is going to finish off most of the campaigns. The others will sort themselves out before summer gets here.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at January 14, 2008 01:19 PM (9MMEG)

C3PO whine

I think you've found your true voice GM.

Posted by: geb4000 at January 14, 2008 03:06 PM (a1oRP)

16 Hmmmmm.

"I'm already mad at voters in both states, and I don't even know why."

Classic symptom of turning Democrat.

Posted by: memomachine at January 14, 2008 03:36 PM (3pvQO)

17 What are people in SC Thinking?

Posted by: nick at January 14, 2008 05:59 PM (oespl)

18 Not quick enough? At this rate Fred would be within the MOE of McCain by Saturday at latest.

A Huck-Mitt flameout in MI that falls short of crowning McCain would help. Then Fred's the anti-John.

Stranger things have happened.

Posted by: Police Commissioner Hakim Hussein at January 14, 2008 06:00 PM (8aPVo)

19 44.3 % change of McShamnesty winning the republican nomination...someone shoot me now please....

Posted by: nick at January 14, 2008 06:03 PM (oespl)

20 McShamnesty? Please, people, get over this bullshit. McCain is the only candidate who has a shit's chance in hell of beating Obamessiah (and he matches up really well against Hillary). He's not a liberal, either. The amnesty thing was bad, but so long as he moves to a position of "let's secure the borders, and we're not going to bother sinking a huge amount of government money into deporting those already here," then he's fine with me and right on the other big issues that conservatives care about: small government, way out ahead of everyone else on the war, good on social issues. So GO JOHNNY GO.

(N.B. Anyone who actually thinks mass deportations is the way to go needs to join the Paulbots...hatred and idiocy is driving your politics. I agree: no more illegals. But to deport en masse the ones who are already here - as opposed to kicking out illegals who commit crimes or something like that - would be kick our economy in the balls, and I'm not willing to pursue the issue that far on principles of pique alone.)

Posted by: Jeff B. at January 14, 2008 06:22 PM (oRT5o)

21 Further N.B.: I like Thompson a lot on the issues, but I think he's got zero percent chance of winning. I feel the same way about Romney, except maybe even moreso: nobody on either side of the fence is better qualified to be President (or would likely do a better job) than Romney, given his ridiculously amazingly impressive executive experience...but the guy just ain't got a chance in hell of winning. If only he was a Baptist or something. I'll vote for Hillary over Huckabee (if we're gonna get a liberal, let's at least make sure the liberal shit redounds to the disgrace of the Democratic party, okay?) and Giuliani has too many skeletons in his closet.

Posted by: Jeff B. at January 14, 2008 06:24 PM (oRT5o)

Jeff B.: Smaller government? Please is right.

McCain-Feingold could only be worse if it were a presidential ticket. I'll pull the trigger for McCain if he wins it, and feel shitty about it, but don't delude yourself into thinking Johnny Boy's for smaller government. Our only crappy consolation is he can't get much bigger government in his thinking than W.

Posted by: Rocketeer at January 14, 2008 06:33 PM (GFaLW)

23 McCain-Feingold is over, done, finito. I didn't like it at the time, I don't like it now, but it's received the imprimatur of the SCOTUS and it ain't going anywhere. It's a dead issue: there isn't going to be any campaign finance reform now or in the future. I've moved on out of pragmatism. You want purism? Join the Ron Paul Revolution.

All I know about McCain is that he has been hitting Bush on his spending for years now. He's been a leader alongside Tom Coburn in pushing earmark reform in the Senate. He (100% absolutely correctly) called Bush on his bullshit and said "okay, you want to keep spending? Well then we need to undo these tax cuts. YOU CAN'T DO BOTH, BUDDY." He was one of the masterminds behind the Gang Of 14, which even the most hardline opponent back then has to now admit saved our bacon, getting two great SCOTUS nominees confirmed while allowing us to save the filibuster. I'm sorry, I want to hate McCain as much as the next Val-U-Rite Vodka-swilling AoS goon, but I don't.

As long as he agrees not to push for an amnesty (I neither need nor want to see mass deportations), I can totally get on board with him.

Posted by: Jeff B. at January 14, 2008 07:10 PM (oRT5o)

He (100% absolutely correctly) called Bush on his bullshit and said "okay, you want to keep spending? Well then we need to undo these tax cuts. YOU CAN'T DO BOTH, BUDDY."

Given that the tax cuts -increased- tax revenue... why can't you?

Don't get me wrong, I really really really want to see lower spending as well, that would be awesome... but if you can't get both tax cuts and spending cuts, yeah, I'll take just tax cuts rather than neither, any day of the week.

Qwinn

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